Again: Can you give us a link/timestamp whatever?I’m reading that Jeff Grubb is saying not to expect new hardware until 2024+ ?
Again: Can you give us a link/timestamp whatever?I’m reading that Jeff Grubb is saying not to expect new hardware until 2024+ ?
Good luck to Nintendo i guess...I’m reading that Jeff Grubb is saying not to expect new hardware until 2024+ ?
Again: Can you give us a link/timestamp whatever?
It's his speculation based on their current sales trajectory. He says he wouldn't know when they're planning in any insider capacity.I’m reading that Jeff Grubb is saying not to expect new hardware until 2024+ ?
To take my mind off the supreme court absurdity (and it's not only RvW), I looked at Nintendo's shareholder disclosures (source) for clues to the next Switch model's production and release window. Below is the unconsolidated inventory data from the Switch era (FY03/18 to FY03/22), and I highlighted the outlying numbers for further discussion:
Tl;dr, at the end of 03/2022, Nintendo's raw material inventory was at the highest level since the Switch was introduced. The previous peak (03/2019) was for the Lite and v2 production. If this is a precursor of the next Switch model, the work in progress inventory level suggests that the manufacturing of said model had not yet begun by March.
- The finished goods at the end of 03/2018 was high because of the 3DS stock.
- At the end of 03/2019, the raw materials and work in progress were both elevated, possibly to ramp up the early product of Lite and v2 Switch. As you may recall, the Lite backplate was leaked in 04/2019.
- Due to COVID factory shutdown, the finished goods and work in progress at the end of 03/2020 were both at the lowest levels.
- The strong demands stemmed from shelter-in-place resulted in a low finished goods (stock turning over quickly) and high work in progress (mass production to meet demands) at the end of 03/2021.
- Things are getting interesting this year. As one'd notice immediately, Nintendo is stockpiling raw materials for no apparent reason, while the finished goods and work in progress remain stable.
- The money tied up in the raw materials is about twice as much as in 03/2019, back when Nintendo was ramping up the Lite and v2 production. Are they preparing to start manufacturing a new model that would cost much more than the Lite and v2? (Yes, there's inflation going on, but that alone doesn't explain the 2x increase.)
- Note that the work in progress level is not elevated. It seems to indicate that at least at the end of 03/2022, the production of this new model had not been commenced.
Disclaimer: I'm not a financial analyst. Vash and other experts probably can shed more light on this.
I saw it. Pretty pointless post from that person without any given context.It was someone over in the Era thread mentioned it along with Metroid Prime 4 in 2025.
I saw it. Pretty pointless post from that person without any given context.
It's his speculation based on their current sales trajectory. He says he wouldn't know when they're planning in any insider capacity.
I got all these numbers from Nintendo's "notice of the annual general meeting of shareholders" published every year prior to the meeting. As for why focusing on the unconsolidated inventories (instead of consolidated) it's because I believed that the subsidiaries, such as the NOA, are not involved in the manufacturing; since my goal was to find clues for any potential new hardware, the unconsolidated inventories seem less noisy data points to me. Also, Nintendo changed their accounting standard for FY03/2022, which impacted the consolidated inventories but not unconsolidated inventories, therefore it may be cleaner to use the latter.I just took a closer look at this. Where exactly are you getting the unconsolidated data, and why are you using the unconsolidated data?
Note 1 in the annual report is the consolidate data. Raw materials were $114m (USD) as of March 2021. This compares to $158m in March 2020, $315m in March 2019, $115m in March 2018, and $28m in March 2017.
I don’t see the 2022 AR yet but they have for sure stockpiled something.
As mentioned above, it could be due to supply chain issues, not new hardware. But let’s hope.
i am extremely glad they did it, and im hopeful it means the death of those ridiculous names such as ''new''. Its super to the point. It actually makes me believe the next console will hopefully be called 2.It was so weird that Nintendo released hardware called “Nintendo Switch - OLED Model”
It’s such a weird, un-Nintendo thing to use such a technical term like OLED in a product name. Would be like if the Nintendo DSi was called “Nintendo DS - Digital Image Sensor Model” or whatever. Like they could have called it something more marketing/catchy, but they just named it after a hardware component.
Note 1 is the consolidated figure in the AGM. It’s 50% bigger than the unconsolidate figure, about $885 million in USD. That’s almost 10x higher than in the year ago period.I got all these numbers from Nintendo's "notice of the annual general meeting of shareholders" published every year prior to the meeting. As for why focusing on the unconsolidated inventories (instead of consolidated) it's because I believed that the subsidiaries, such as the NOA, are not involved in the manufacturing; since my goal was to find clues for any potential new hardware, the unconsolidated inventories seem less noisy data points to me. Also, Nintendo changed their accounting standard for FY03/2022, which impacted the consolidated inventories but not unconsolidated inventories, therefore it may be cleaner to use the latter.
Expect the OLED model with a Splatoon 3 edition!I did. It’s interesting but not definitive. This analysis is muddied by the fact that there are various supply chain issues so many, many different companies have been stockpiling (higher safety stock) components in inventory to avoid/limit production shortfalls. So it could be either.
I’m more drawn to the Company’s forecast of 21m units. We know that they lowball the software guidance but not the hardware guidance.
Given that unit sales are down in most regions in the June quarter, it implies a much bigger second half of the fiscal year. It’s plausible to me they are planning some additional hardware for either the holiday season or March quarter. But it might be minor by our standards.
The number you’re giving is for 4k performance mode at 60fps, while the cost at 30fps is much lower, and this isn’t even taking into account the benefits of going with Ultra Performance or a DLSS branch optimized specifically for the hardware (which were also things he mentioned in the video). I also mentioned something that was also mentioned in the video, for 60fps games they would likely target a lower output resolution, like 1440p, thus decreasing the render time cost of DLSS. On top of that the system seems like it might be a good bit beefier than the theoretical he used as reference, so his render time cost numbers for DLSS on Switch 4k may not be accurate. It’s also weird that you use that video as your evidence when he was rather happy with what the theoretical Switch 4K in his video would be able to achieve with DLSS.
A fixed render time cost based on the hardware and better performance and lower power draw with DLSS are not mutually exclusive. For example, if a Switch 2 game could hit 4k 60fps natively then it would be able to reduce the power draw by dropping the base resolution and using DLSS. The system would have to have fewer tensor cores than literally anybody expects for DLSS to not be worth it compared to native.
MK10 4k 60fps. Believe. MK8 deluxe should be able to do it native... but if mk10 ends up being 1440p 60fps native, DLSS should push it to 4k and it should be doable.if they want 60fps with DLSS, they will get it. the only actual limitation is them not wanting to give up some heavy effects. but those would cost more to render than DLSS
Thanks! I was waiting for you and other financial pros to chime in.Note 1 is the consolidated figure in the AGM. It’s 50% bigger than the unconsolidate figure, about $885 million in USD. That’s almost 10x higher than in the year ago period.
Something is probably up.
Thanks! I was waiting for you and other financial pros to chime in.
Most 4k games will likely have an internal resolution of 720p or 1080p. I doubt they’d waste the wattage and GPU performance on getting any DLSS games up to a 1440p base resolution unless the game doesn’t push the system very hard.MK10 4k 60fps. Believe. MK8 deluxe should be able to do it native... but if mk10 ends up being 1440p 60fps native, DLSS should push it to 4k and it should be doable.
not expecting any 1080p games to go to 4k on DLSS..
If they were starting 3 months earlier than normal (i.e. April?) then we'd probably have some large production leaks by now. It's more likely IMO that full production hasn't started yet seeing as how we're only hearing snippets from Chinese forums at the moment.Note 1 is the consolidated figure in the AGM. It’s 50% bigger than the unconsolidate figure, about $885 million in USD. That’s almost 10x higher than in the year ago period.
I don’t know the technical details why the parent or the unconsolidated results are disclosed, but they hold less information than consolidated.
Nonetheless, the conclusion doesn’t change; something could be up. My take is that finished good is equivalent to ~4m hardware units. If we assume that raw mats are equivalent to about half a completed unit, then maybe that’s ~8m equivalent units.
My only caveat is that Nintendo typical begins to manufacturer for the holiday in the summer. Could they be starting 3 months earlier due to supply chain? Yes.
I think they mean holiday production of current Switch systems.If they were starting 3 months earlier than normal (i.e. April?) then we'd probably have some large production leaks by now. It's more likely IMO that full production hasn't started yet seeing as how we're only hearing snippets from Chinese forums at the moment.
Oh, I see. That makes sense then, yeah. They could be attempting to bolster their holiday stock much earlier than usual, which could change how their inventory looks at this time of year.I think they mean holiday production of current Switch systems.
According to Nate IIRC more were sent out last year, not sure if we've had an update since then.Have we ever had any more leaks on devkits being out for a new Switch? I know talk was they started going out in 2020 but are the6 still going out or has that stalled now I wonder.
You misunderstood. I’m saying they may be starting to produce the existing SKUs for holidays 3 months earlier. Not a new model.If they were starting 3 months earlier than normal (i.e. April?) then we'd probably have some large production leaks by now. It's more likely IMO that full production hasn't started yet seeing as how we're only hearing snippets from Chinese forums at the moment.
Yeah thank you, someone else corrected me above.You misunderstood. I’m saying they may be starting to produce the existing SKUs for holidays 3 months earlier. Not a new model.
It sounds plausible to me that Nintendo would want to produce ~10m units by summer 2022 to avoid supply chain issues during holiday 2022. The forecast for the year is 21m units.
Yeah thank you, someone else corrected me above.
That timeline makes sense to me. Do we get these same inventory disclosures for other quarters or is it just yearly?
Well I was more wondering if we could compare the level we see here to past Q2 levels, but if they're not reported then yeah that's a moot point.We get total inventory every quarter, but not the mix of components.
I think we will know if it’s launching this year before the September quarter is released so it’s probably a moot point.
NGL?NGL the thought of Famiboards making friends with this other forum feels very wholesome
If Nintendo manages to sell ~4M Q1, ~4M Q2, ~9M Q3 and ~4M Q4 they can hit that number.
Or, 3.3M Q1, 3.3M Q2, 9.9 Q3 and 3.3M Q4
I suppose it can…. sorta? But it would be tight here and hard
Nice. Would you be able to show only the raw materials? Totally okay if you don't have time.
I'm pretty sure building materials (like actual building materials: concrete and drywall and steel bars etc.) would not be included in their raw materials/inventories.This spike is because they're having a new building built, isn't it?? Contractors not owing all RM?
Thanks again! No rush to reply: The green bars (raw materials) appear bi-annually in the screenshot, but the number is only disclosed once a year. Does the Bloomberg Terminal provide non-public data?
Sorry, English is not my native language.NGL=not gonna lie
Also synonymous with “to be honest”
well, not with that attitude.To be clear, you realize that 3.3m*3 + 9.9m does not sum up to 21m, right?
Excellent and simple question.Okay.... why not?
Excellent and simple question.
Thanks again! No rush to reply: The green bars (raw materials) appear bi-annually in the screenshot, but the number is only disclosed once a year. Does the Bloomberg Terminal provide non-public data?
I've learned a lot from hanging around here, including from your posts. I have a technical background, but in a totally different field. It's awesome that we can have an ongoing conversation.To everyone new to this thread, here is a post that crushes it. Yes, the poster debunked some of my assumptions, and it is brilliant nonetheless. It explains different usages of DLSS, why it is still desirable for a device that relies on low TDP and why it potentially future proofs the console.
It definitely doesn't. I realize I was a little unclear here. What I was getting at was the tradeoff between tensor cores and shader cores. On games where DLSS is NOT useful, how much better would those games look/run if Nintendo had replaced the tensor cores with just more raw shader cores?@oldpuck : your last sentence must be proved though. Do we have any data that suggests that using DLSS always improves either IQ or framerate?
Why would the office building affect who owns their raw materials/where they're located? Unless you're suggesting they're including the actual construction materials which would be weird.This spike is because they're having a new building built, isn't it?? Contractors not owing all RM?
Excellent and simple question.
YupAren't you the French guy who first talked about the next machine having DLSS?
Why still doubting him ? He is connected and really accurate.. but Sometime things can change.Nate was right about the Direct date, so I will continue to believe him on Drake launching late 22 - early 23.
Double wink