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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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LinkURL said:
Genuine question: Does this account for inflation?
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It does not, and it wasn't quite up there in raw numbers, either, although it was close iirc. It was more meant as a ballpark comparison for the current discussion.

Edit: here is a link to the thread in the old place where the data was compiled.

As you can see, the Switch era from the get-go was vastly more profitable than the WiiU/3DS era.
 
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Kazuyamishima said:
Interesting I wonder if some news dropped last second
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SoldierDelta said:
I'm curious as to if a new piece of news dropped last minute, but I have my doubts tbh. I'm just hoping for news of any kind at this stage.
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With the stuff Nate's been saying lately about the difficulty he and MVG sometimes have with lining up their schedules, plus (iirc) MVG doing the publishing of the podcast and such, I honestly expect it's simply due to that.

If there was some big news or something that changed and warranted them doing additional recording or re-recording the episode, I'd expect the delay to be much longer than just a couple days.
 
SoldierDelta said:
Welp, that's annoying, I'm just going to play Balatro until Monday then.

I'm curious as to if a new piece of news dropped last minute, but I have my doubts tbh. I'm just hoping for news of any kind at this stage.
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Probably unlikely, but it would be nice if we heard rumor coming from CDG, since there was a user in resetera who said that Nintendo had a private area, meanwhile Sony also showed of the PS5 pro.

I’m hoping we’ll hear developers thoughts on these systems, since they’ll be the one making the games.
 
Even the podcast that may or may not be about the next Switch and that may or may not have new info that may or may not be good news is getting delayed. We are at our lowest point.
 
Charamiwa said:
Even the podcast that may or may not be about the next Switch and that may or may not have new info that may or may not be good news is getting delayed. We are at our lowest point.
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It's Easter weekend, he might just have a lot going on. That's fine though, can listen to it on Monday. :)
 
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Hermii said:
Well Drake is 2 years old ish, will be 3 by the time it releases. But yea. Due to custom hardware and software (nvn2), and arm it will punch above its weight compared to handheld pcs.
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True but we don’t know what’s the steamdeck or any other console’s tape out date so it’s hard to compare. The rumors point to the release being end of this years so I’m hoping the technology involved took that into consideration.
 
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TLZ said:
I'm going for $350. While all Switch variants get a price cut at Switch 2 release.
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I'm going to lean toward $400 but could also see $350 (with a price reduction of the OLED model and base models). The reason why I'm leaning toward $400 is because product prices have basically gone up everywhere and the Switch OLED is still generally priced at $350 (unless you get in on a deal). I feel $400 is fine personally assuming it's a solid upgrade over the original Switch.
 
Kevin said:
I'm going to lean toward $400 but could also see $350 (with a price reduction of the OLED model and base models). The reason why I'm leaning toward $400 is because product prices have basically gone up everywhere and the Switch OLED is still generally priced at $350 (unless you get in on a deal). I feel $400 is fine personally assuming it's a solid upgrade over the original Switch.
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Specs wise, the switch 2 will be a pretty huge leap, especially since it’s an Nintendo console being similar to Ps4-Xbox series s specs wise, plus the inclusion of DLSS will be pretty huge.

And $400 makes to the most sense, since we’ll see improvements at all fronts, like the dock, screen (1080p) and hopefully a huge revamp for the controller.
 
Steve said:
Weren’t there speculation that the switch 2 will be about 30% more powerful then the steam deck in portable.

Plus the switch 2 will have DLSS, which will make it significantly better than the steam deck.
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30% more in best case scenario.
 
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I'm prepared for a price as high as $450 and equivalents, especially with OLED Model being over 400 USD equivalent at launch, in much of Europe. However, I still think 399$, with OLED hitting 299$, Lite staying at 199$, and V2 discontinued is the pricing model we will see at launch.

I still see no reason to have multiple SKUs, especially if cost saving is a driving philosophy behinds things like the screen technology and node, with TSMC 4NM making T239 under 40$/working chip due to its small size relative to the cost of wafers.

Cost optimised and performant is what a console should be, and T239 on 4NM would be that AND efficient, which is what a handheld needs.
 
darthdiablo said:
Yeah, deflation is dangerous because if not handled properly by The Fed (central banking system of US), there is a real risk of deflationary spiral.

In a deflationary spiral, because of poor economy, people aren't buying, leading to lower demand and falling prices. More production lines/factories close down, creating more unemployment, leading to further falling prices because people aren't buying. Additionally, there also are people who are doing "okay" with money, but isn't buying because they know the prices are falling, so they're more incentivized to wait longer before buying at cheaper prices, leading to further falling prices, thus those holding out will continue to hold out.

All this deflationary spiral mess is a vicious self-feeding loop that is hard to get out of.

The Fed rightfully want to ensure they can do all they can to avoid any possibility of "deflation", to avoid the deflationary spiral risk. To combat deflation, The Fed will aggressively decrease the overnight rate in order to encourage borrowing and spending ("simulate the economy"), which they did after the 2008-2009 crash.
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except the level of debt is magnitudes higher with very little savings base compared to 2008, not to mention the big one rising energy costs. basically the US government is already insolvent so big trouble lies ahead, at the least much more inflation for an extended period which will destroy standard of living for many and lead to all sorts of unrest...

sorry for the economics aside but global issues are going to become very relevant through the Switch 2's lifespan.
 
Aufhebung RPG said:
While it may be a bit offensive, I'm sorry I don't think Necrolipe has a specific source of switch2 information, the article I read back in January and I seriously doubt it was just a collation of the results of the famiboards' discussion, so it doesn't make sense to use the article as a source of information.
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I had the same impression...
 
HankyPanky said:
except the level of debt is magnitudes higher with very little savings base compared to 2008, not to mention the big one rising energy costs. basically the US government is already insolvent so big trouble lies ahead, at the least much more inflation for an extended period which will destroy standard of living for many and lead to all sorts of unrest...

sorry for the economics aside but global issues are going to become very relevant through the Switch 2's lifespan.
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I just want to point out, countries can't really be "insolvent" like companies can be. The "national debt" isn't really an issue until the US seriously and continuously strains its credit, which is unlikely to happen in the near future. The US just has to be trustworthy, and ultimately, it controls its own currency. Its debt to other organisations are not like personal loans for reasons like this and countless others.
 
The reason I chose $350 because it's currently working for Nintendo with the OLED, which is a $50 increase over the OG. Justifiable increase because it's still the current console.

$400 is untried. So I doubt they'll take that risk. So it's easier for them to take the tried and tested route that's actually working wonders for now (launch), and simply drop the previous console price to $300 or less since it'll be the "older" console.

Not to mention $400 is also PS5 territory. I'm sure they want to stay away from that and all the needless comparisons that come with it. They still want to stick out from the crowd pricewise.

Also, Nintendo is still looked at as the cheaper option. That's one part of their attractive proposition, besides their hybrid offering and games.
 
Discostew said:
Would seem kind of odd for Nvidia to use lower binned chips for something like the a new Shield TV when with the TX1, they had used higher binned chips to hit the max clocks. I'm still under the assumption that Nintendo purposefully went with lower binned tX1 chips in their favor. But even assuming other devices could use the T239 SoC, higher or lower binned, might that pose a risk in security? What gave hackers an easy means to access Switch was from public documentation of the Shield TV's ReCovery Mode for potential bricked devices. I imagine Nintendo would NOT want anything remotely similar happen here with a custom SoC they were designing.

Now, even if Nintendo were the only user of the T239, like you said, it simply isn't practical to think that a process node could achieve 100% yield that meets the spec a customer is looking for. But I got to thinking.... is over-speccing a thing? What I mean by this is, what if Nintendo during the design phase understood they would unlikely get the yield they wanted with the exact specs they were looking for, so they end up over-speccing the SoC so they can technically bin their own chip for increased yields?
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~I want to warn everyone that this is a very long post.~

The Tegra X1 on the Nvidia Shield TV (2015) actually thermal throttles when doing high workloads. In fact, the GPU thermal throttles to 614 MHz when the CPU's running at 2 GHz. And even when the CPU's running at 1 GHz, the GPU can thermal throttle down to 768 MHz depending on the CPU's workload.

And the Nvidia Shield TV (2015) can consume up to 19.4 W for gaming whereas the Nintendo Switch (2017) can consume up to 16.5 W when on TV mode.

So considering that the Tegra X1's GPU on the Nvidia Shield TV (2015) can actually thermal throttle to a much lower frequency when running the CPU frequency very high, and considering the Nvidia Shield TV (2015) can actually consume more power vs the Nintendo Switch (2017) when connected to the TV, I think Nvidia's actually using Tegra X1s that are lower binned than the Tegra X1s Nintendo's using for the Nintendo Switch (2017), especially since Nintendo requires the CPU frequency to be the same on handheld mode and TV mode for the Nintendo Switch (2017), but are much higher binned than the Jetson Nano.

The Nvidia Shield TV (2019) and the Nvidia Shield TV Pro also use the same SoC (p. 3) that the Nintendo Switch (2019) (here (p. 1) and here), the Nintendo Switch Lite, and the OLED model are using, which is the Tegra X1+, which is codenamed Mariko.

The only way to hack the Tegra X1+ currently is through hardware modding, which requires advanced hardware skills. I think hardware modding's generally impossible to prevent for any electronics, especially since there are always someone who's willing to spend free time hacking through hardware modding. However, I do think hardware modding being the only option for hacking makes hacking significantly less desirable for most people who probably don't have advance hardware skills (e.g. soldering, etc.).

So if the Nintendo Switch (2019), the Nintendo Switch Lite, and the OLED model are any indication, even if other products were using lower binned T239s, there probably won't be any easy access point(s) for hacking, at least without doing hardware modding.

One reason why I don't think Nintendo and Nvidia overdesigned T239 is because NVN2 mentions there are 12 SMs in GA10F, T239's GPU. And there's an implication that all 12 SMs are active since NVN2 is an API. And NVN2 also mentions that GA10F has 1 GPC, which means GA10F has 12 SMs per GPC, which means GA10F's design aligns with GA102's design (84 SMs/7 GPCs).

So overdesigning T239 in this case probably requires 2 GPCs in GA10F (24 SMs total), which does make the SoC larger, and increases the amount of dark silicon since I imagine 1 GPC has to be disabled to have 12 SMs active, which is what I don't think is ideal from Nintendo's and Nvidia's point of view, especially since bigger SoCs generally have lower yields.

I think if Nintendo and Nvidia wanted to overdesign T239, and assuming Nintendo and Nvidia still want 12 SMs to be active, then Nintendo and Nvidia could have GA10F's design align with GA104's design (48 SMs/6 GPCs) or GA10B's design (16 SMs/2 GPCs), where there are 8 SMs per GPC, or with GA103's design (60 SMs/6 GPCs), GA106's design (30 SMs/3 GPCs), or GA107's (20 SMs/2 GPCs) design, where there are 10 SMs per GPC.

A SoC with a GPU with 2 GPCs (16 SMs or 20 SMs total) is still be larger than a SoC with a GPU with 1 GPC (12 SMs total). But there should be less dark silicon than having a SoC with a GPU that has 2 GPCs (24 SMs total), but with 1 GPC disabled (12 SMs active).
 
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Concernt said:
I just want to point out, countries can't really be "insolvent" like companies can be. The "national debt" isn't really an issue until the US seriously and continuously strains its credit, which is unlikely to happen in the near future. The US just has to be trustworthy, and ultimately, it controls its own currency. Its debt to other organisations are not like personal loans for reasons like this and countless others.
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they're not going to formally default no but when debt to GDP reaches the sort of levels it has now (over 120%) economies don't generally spring back without some sort of productivity miracle - they can't print energy. at best it's going to be a managed decline with higher levels of inflation for many years and probably what Japan has attempted to do 'managing' their bond market which ironically is coming unstuck now. that'll be the price of 'stimulating' the economy this time around.
 
TLZ said:
The reason I chose $350 because it's currently working for Nintendo with the OLED, which is a $50 increase over the OG. Justifiable increase because it's still the current console.

$400 is untried. So I doubt they'll take that risk. So it's easier for them to take the tried and tested route that's actually working wonders for now (launch), and simply drop the previous console price to $300 or less since it'll be the "older" console.

Not to mention $400 is also PS5 territory. I'm sure they want to stay away from that and all the needless comparisons that come with it. They still want to stick out from the crowd pricewise.

Also, Nintendo is still looked at as the cheaper option. That's one part of their attractive proposition, besides their hybrid offering and games.
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$400 is still $100 cheaper than the base PS5 (which by far the most popular version) and $50 cheaper than the PS5 Digital Edition. The only device that would really compete with it on price would be the Xbox Series S, and it doesn't have the portability, physical games, or Nintendo exclusives that the Switch 2 would have. I wouldn't be surprised if the Switch received a big price cut in the next year or so, but I don't think the next one will be $350.
 
TLZ said:
The reason I chose $350 because it's currently working for Nintendo with the OLED, which is a $50 increase over the OG. Justifiable increase because it's still the current console.

$400 is untried. So I doubt they'll take that risk. So it's easier for them to take the tried and tested route that's actually working wonders for now (launch), and simply drop the previous console price to $300 or less since it'll be the "older" console.

Not to mention $400 is also PS5 territory. I'm sure they want to stay away from that and all the needless comparisons that come with it. They still want to stick out from the crowd pricewise.

Also, Nintendo is still looked at as the cheaper option. That's one part of their attractive proposition, besides their hybrid offering and games.
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Well, consider a few things:

1. $399 might make them line up with the cheapest PS5 in theory, but even in the US, the Digital Edition Slim Family PS5, the only one in production, has an MSRP of $449.99, not $399.99, Nintendo would still have the cheapest flagship console on the market with the added value of being a hybrid, while Sony charges an extra $199.99 minimum just for the official remote play device. It also has a physical Game Card slot, surely. Now compare the $699.98 price tag of a Portal + Disk Drive PS5, and $399.99 starts to look generous.

2. Regional pricing, PS5 Slim Family with a Disk Drive costs upwards of €549.99 in Europe, that's over $600 depending on the day. €399.99 Vs €549.99 is a huge gap, and when you say, add on the cost of the Portal and convert to USD, that's a difference of over $320 at today's exchange rates.

3. Because of regional pricing, $400 is NOT untried, Nintendo Switch OLED Model being over 400 of the local dollar in various countries, and most notably, launching at OVER 400 USD equivalent in the Eurozone, which consists mostly of countries with LOWER average incomes than the USA, and it still sold extremely well here.

4. $350 for the new system would make the OLED Model much more difficult to price after launch. Does it go all the way down to $249.99? That would be a shock, that could eat into profits, I don't know if I can see that happening. $399.99 isn't a huge upset coming from $349.99, the first number is still the same, and that matters in the minds of consumers. Meanwhile, OLED Model can drop "only" $50 and have a not too drastic but very differentiating price cut to $299.99.
 
HankyPanky said:
they're not going to formally default no but when debt to GDP reaches the sort of levels it has now (over 120%) economies don't generally spring back without some sort of productivity miracle - they can't print energy. at best it's going to be a managed decline with higher levels of inflation for many years and probably what Japan has attempted to do 'managing' their bond market which ironically is coming unstuck now. that'll be the price of 'stimulating' the economy this time around.
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Debt is basically irrelevant if you make the world's reserve currency. USA! USA! USA!
 
boodream said:
High launch prices hurt both the 3DS and Wii U. Of course, there were other problems, not least the lack of games initially available, but when you're aiming for a wide audience, price is very important. Naturally, I expect the launch price of the Switch 2 to be higher than that of the Switch. Not out of "arrogance" or anything, but because inflation also affects Nintendo, which has to pass on higher costs unless it sells hardware at a loss, which won't happen. Some expected and necessary improvements will also undoubtedly increase manufacturing costs, such as a bigger screen, more RAM or even more internal storage space.

However, in my opinion, there are psychological limits that must not be crossed with consumers. You can't launch the Switch 2 at a higher price than the entry-level model of the steam deck, or the entry-level model of the Playstation 5, whose price will surely drop with the arrival of the PS5 Pro.
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Switch launched at an higher price than ps4/X1. Switch oled now is officially priced 329$/€. Everyone is expecting 399$/€ and it’s possible but knowing Nintendo a bit optimistic imho. I remember the pre-launch discussion of Wii,3DS, Wii U and switch and every time Nintendo priced the next console higher than what everyone was expecting. Wii and Switch succeeded, 3DS and Wii U failed. 50/50.

I’m also expecting “big” switch 1 support for at least 2 years after the next gen launch so they will always have a cheap option for casual and kids.
 
I love fiscal policy as much or more than the next person, but a world economic catastrophe being relevant to Switch 2 production is like saying the meteor heading toward earth is going to really disrupt the market for Funko Pops.

You might not be wrong exactly, but not only is its topicality in question, you're dangerously close from pirouetting from an abstract right into a concrete moral or political statement likely to piss someone off.
 
oldpuck said:
you're dangerously close from pirouetting from an abstract right into a concrete moral or political statement likely to piss someone off.
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That's why I really quickly decided to shut up and bail after posting that McConaughey joke 😂
 
Triistan said:
Switch launched at an higher price than ps4/X1. Switch oled now is officially priced 329$/€. Everyone is expecting 399$/€ and it’s possible but knowing Nintendo a bit optimistic imho. I remember the pre-launch discussion of Wii,3DS, Wii U and switch and every time Nintendo priced the next console higher than what everyone was expecting. Wii and Switch succeeded, 3DS and Wii U failed. 50/50.

I’m also expecting “big” switch 1 support for at least 2 years after the next gen launch so they will always have a cheap option for casual and kids.
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If I’m not mistaken, the launch price of the PlayStation 4 was $100 higher than that of the Nintendo switch. Then, in 2016, Sony released a slim model whose launch price was actually lower than that of the Nintendo switch, indeed.

As I said about Sony, I expect them to also release a slim model or announce a lower price for the PlayStation 5 when the pro model comes out. This is one more reason that should encourage Nintendo not to charge an excessive initial price in my opinion.

The fact that they have done this in the past does not mean that they will do it again. This has been fixed, there has been a price drop for the 3DS that allowed it to regain success, there has also been a price drop for the Wii U by the force of things . So I don’t know if I would personally assume that they haven’t learned from their past mistake when the success of the Switch is precisely based on the fact that they seem to have learned a number of lessons.
 
I feel like when Nate doesn’t specify what an episode is about it’s usually related to Nintendo news. I could be wrong though.
 
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Steve said:
Isn’t stream lab basically answering fan’s questions.
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It's exactly that.

Due to various issues they haven't answered Streamlabs questions for a few episodes now. People who have submitted questions have been asking if they'll ever get back around to it and Nate confirmed they would be going through the backlog of them at some point soon. So an episode that's basically fan-question-catchup is a possibility.
 
~The Calm Before the Storm~

That period of time that seems to linger on for miles as we all wait with baited breath for the floodgates to open, the seas to part, the rivers to flow! Soon this thread will be pumping out posts at the speed of light with excitement for the season of the Switch 2.
 
I'm thinking Nintendo needs to price the Switch 2 well. If its anywhere close to PS5 in price it will collapse totally in sales figures compared to the Switch in countries such as Japan, among the most important markets for Nintendo. If Nintendo were smart they would release it at a cost to guarantee the success of the Switch 2 right out of the gate. Price it too much and you can destroy the entire gen for Nintendo.
 
boodream said:
Yes. I think Nate said here that this might be an opportunity to catch up on the questions. It would be nice to listen, I always find them more relaxed when they answer questions, it’s often fun.
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Does these question sometimes includes rumores and whatnot. Like someone can ask ,,Which company can we expect to support the switch 2’’. Or is it more personal questions like which games he’s currently playing.
 
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