StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

[Giancarlo]

I'm thinking Nintendo needs to price the Switch 2 well. If its anywhere close to PS5 in price it will collapse totally in sales figures compared to the Switch in countries such as Japan, among the most important markets for Nintendo. If Nintendo were smart they would release it at a cost to guarantee the success of the Switch 2 right out of the gate. Price it too much and you can destroy the entire gen for Nintendo.

what would be the ideal price point for Nintendo next console?

 

[Concernt]

I'm thinking Nintendo needs to price the Switch 2 well. If its anywhere close to PS5 in price it will collapse totally in sales figures compared to the Switch in countries such as Japan, among the most important markets for Nintendo. If Nintendo were smart they would release it at a cost to guarantee the success of the Switch 2 right out of the gate. Price it too much and you can destroy the entire gen for Nintendo.

I can't say I agree at all, even at the same price it has the added value of being a hybrid... Plus Nintendo first parties, which is huge.

Selling at cost might still lead to it sitting at around $400.

 

[Jbone916]

I distinctly remember people arguing that Switch would 100% fail if it was priced at anything higher than $250 because “you can get a PS4/XBO for $300.”

 

[John Omaha]

I'm thinking Nintendo needs to price the Switch 2 well. If its anywhere close to PS5 in price it will collapse totally in sales figures compared to the Switch in countries such as Japan, among the most important markets for Nintendo. If Nintendo were smart they would release it at a cost to guarantee the success of the Switch 2 right out of the gate. Price it too much and you can destroy the entire gen for Nintendo.

How many times do we need to go over this? The original Switch wasn’t just close to the PS4 in price, it was actually more expensive.

If price is an issue for Switch 2, it won’t be because of any comparisons with the PS5.

 

[gonanzir]

In a random thought, Nintendo could bundle games into sales to make the console itself more worthwhile, and they've done that in some places

 

[Shish]

Well, consider a few things:

1. $399 might make them line up with the cheapest PS5 in theory, but even in the US, the Digital Edition Slim Family PS5, the only one in production, has an MSRP of $449.99, not $399.99, Nintendo would still have the cheapest flagship console on the market with the added value of being a hybrid, while Sony charges an extra $199.99 minimum just for the official remote play device. It also has a physical Game Card slot, surely. Now compare the $699.98 price tag of a Portal + Disk Drive PS5, and $399.99 starts to look generous.

2. Regional pricing, PS5 Slim Family with a Disk Drive costs upwards of €549.99 in Europe, that's over $600 depending on the day. €399.99 Vs €549.99 is a huge gap, and when you say, add on the cost of the Portal and convert to USD, that's a difference of over $320 at today's exchange rates.

3. Because of regional pricing, $400 is NOT untried, Nintendo Switch OLED Model being over 400 of the local dollar in various countries, and most notably, launching at OVER 400 USD equivalent in the Eurozone, which consists mostly of countries with LOWER average incomes than the USA, and it still sold extremely well here.

4. $350 for the new system would make the OLED Model much more difficult to price after launch. Does it go all the way down to $249.99? That would be a shock, that could eat into profits, I don't know if I can see that happening. $399.99 isn't a huge upset coming from $349.99, the first number is still the same, and that matters in the minds of consumers. Meanwhile, OLED Model can drop "only" $50 and have a not too drastic but very differentiating price cut to $299.99.

I think it's better that Nintendo launches 2 skus for Switch 2, one for $350 and another $400, the only difference is the memory.

So at least Nintendo won't hurt hardware and software sales.

 

[bmfrosty]

People don't price comparison shop consoles. They have one grab hold of their imagination and then pick it up if or when it makes sense to them.

 

[NineTailSage]

Nintendo could be using new battery technology like Graphene batteries, which can pack a bigger charge and charges now evenly compared to Lithium, yes that is a thing. There are those micro jet blowers for small form factors announced recently at a tech trade show.

As a few others have stated graphene is still pricy to manufacture, but the next wave of battery tech seems to be Solid State Lithium.
Most current Lithium battery makers will probably incorporate this as their next evolution.

At the end of the day Switch 2 isn’t going to be near a Series S in terms of it’s CPU or SSD performance so it’s best to expect a DOOM/Witcher 3 like downgrade on most AAA third party games. Although personally I think it will be better for the sole reason of getting at least 1080p like image quality when docked due to DLSS instead of 600p…

I think 99% of the market will be more than happy with that because in 50% of cases they will be playing the game on a 7-8” screen and not a 40”+ screen which hides a LOT of the compromises especially when the person isn’t looking for them or comparing said experience to another more powerful console in the same room.

I don't think this is an accurate statement to make right now.
We don't know the final clocks just yet, but there's a real chance of Switch 2 CPU being 60-70% of Series S performance and by mathematical standards that's pretty close...

Also Switch 1 had many bottlenecks plaguing the hardware and I fully expect we will see many games look pretty similar between Switch 2 and Series S.

Its impossible to compare Nintendo products with Valve products. Nintendo is aming for mass market appeal and thus have to think more about price of the system over performance. Valve only aims for hardcore gamers that are ready to buy a high cost steam deck while they already own a high cost gaming computer.

The problems that we run into with comparing Switch 2 to Steamdeck, is where Valve struggled to make a $400 device.
Because of economy of scale, Nintendo can get a better price on everything under the sun because of the bulk in which they buy and sell.

The reason I chose $350 because it's currently working for Nintendo with the OLED, which is a $50 increase over the OG. Justifiable increase because it's still the current console.

$400 is untried. So I doubt they'll take that risk. So it's easier for them to take the tried and tested route that's actually working wonders for now (launch), and simply drop the previous console price to $300 or less since it'll be the "older" console.

Not to mention $400 is also PS5 territory. I'm sure they want to stay away from that and all the needless comparisons that come with it. They still want to stick out from the crowd pricewise.

Also, Nintendo is still looked at as the cheaper option. That's one part of their attractive proposition, besides their hybrid offering and games.

I fully expect Switch 2 to be $400 (or possibly $450 at the highest).
When Switch 1 launched it was the same price as PS4, so a $400 Switch 2 isn't that farfetched and Sony and Microsoft are struggling to manufacture these consoles cheaper.

what would be the ideal price point for Nintendo next console?

$400 is the best bet (as PS4 proved years ago)
It's the right price for an instant buy and early adopters, and also enough (price wise) to not skimp on specs while delivering a good value for the tech inside.

 

[Concernt]

I think it's better that Nintendo launches 2 skus for Switch 2, one for $350 and another $400, the only difference is the memory.

So at least Nintendo won't hurt hardware and software sales.

1. This hurt the last home console they tried this with, each variant making the other look less worthwhile in some way, and then the lower SKU got cut after a year.

2. Price sensitivity among consumers and Nintendo would push them towards consolidating production and supply on a single SKU that balances features and price, as has been their tactic with every successful console's launch.

 

[TomNookYankees]

what would be the ideal price point for Nintendo next console?

$400 with as much RAM and Internal storage as what the Steam Deck $399 model has (16GB and 256GB). If it has less internal storage and/or RAM than the Steam Deck $399 model then they need to sell it cheaper.

 

[Tentacle-tropes]

I distinctly remember people arguing that Switch would 100% fail if it was priced at anything higher than $250 because “you can get a PS4/XBO for $300.”

There is that meme quote floating around somewhere from the Gaf days that gets reposted every so often.

---

In the end people will buy the Switch 2 because it has something they want. If it doesn’t then they won’t buy even being 100$ cheaper. See 3DS for this phenomena happening as an example. It wasn’t just the price decrease that got people to buy into the system.

For that matter having a 2nd sku at launch is not worth it. Too many downsides and not enough upside. The reason it didn’t work with WiiU was because the WiiU was an unviable product from the get go. The cheaper sku was just a horrid proposition in general even in a vacuum. All having a second sku did is rot on shelves or a landfill somewhere. They just need one to get right rather then waste time with a second one.

 

[Uncle Squingis]

Both Nate and John Linneman think Switch 2 will be north of $400 so I'm going to prepare myself for that, but I think over $400 is a needless risk. It seems to me that Nintendo is very worried about Switch 2 faltering out of the gate and will play it as safe as possible.

 

[Vanillalite]

$399 is already 100 more than most switch owners paid. I think many would be totally fine with it, and it would sell fine.

Trying to push it to $450 or even $500 would be a big stretch though. It’ll sell out at launch regardless, but pricing will def slow down steam if they push it too high.

 

[NintenDuvo]

So do you guys think that an actual physical prototype of the Switch 2 exists and is out there in the world

 

[ziggyrivers]

So do you guys think that an actual physical prototype of the Switch 2 exists and is out there in the world

It does, but very deep and inside whichever division of Nintendo tests them out

 

[gnetc]

The announcement getting delayed really feels like when you make shot 29 and then brick shot 30...

 

[darthdiablo]

So do you guys think that an actual physical prototype of the Switch 2 exists and is out there in the world

Yup. All those parts we have been seeing in customs data since 2022 basically is not just for the lulz.

Pre-August 2023, action was centered around nvidia India, related to T239 testing and validating. August 2023 and afterwards, it's been all kind of stuff to Hosiden in Vietnam, for what looks like a kickoff to start pre-mass production timeline

 

[Shoulder]

1. This hurt the last home console they tried this with, each variant making the other look less worthwhile in some way, and then the lower SKU got cut after a year.

2. Price sensitivity among consumers and Nintendo would push them towards consolidating production and supply on a single SKU that balances features and price, as has been their tactic with every successful console's launch.

Not to mention folks around here and elsewhere have complained in the past concerning shortages, whether with the Switch, or other platforms.

As far as I can work out, multiple skus don’t magically solve that issue.

 

[Leinad]

I don't think this is an accurate statement to make right now.
We don't know the final clocks just yet, but there's a real chance of Switch 2 CPU being 60-70% of Series S performance and by mathematical standards that's pretty close...

Also Switch 1 had many bottlenecks plaguing the hardware and I fully expect we will see many games look pretty similar between Switch 2 and Series S.

I don't know enough to certainly, but I think that those CPU's can not compare eatch other by absolute numbers. Because they are different instructions tipe... I believe there are some test for mensure efficiency and then compare the tipes.

 

[Teal'c]

Obviously I have no certainty, but I see the price of 499€/$ very unlikely. However, I believe that 449 is not unlikely.
The increase in the price of raw materials, the rumored performance of the console and an adequate line-up could convince many people.

 

[Guaraná]

I think Nintendo is setting Switch 2 for a banger initial 12 months. man, they're gonna drop bomb after bomb to make sure this thing has a stellar first year. Like I truly believe we're going to have 3D Mario, Prime 4, Donkey Kong Mario Kart, and TotK enhanced, plus at least 2 new entries of minor series, like Xenoblade, and Fire Emblem plus completely new stuff.

Nintendo knows they don't have Sony's prerogative and market goodwill to release a console without a series of bombs being dropped and I'm pretty sure they delayed Switch 2 to ensure they have an amazing amount of first and second-party games to go along during its launch window.

Things are going to be insane.

 

[Triistan]

Obviously I have no certainty, but I see the price of 499€/$ very unlikely. However, I believe that 449 is not unlikely.
The increase in the price of raw materials, the rumored performance of the console and an adequate line-up could convince many people.

This.

Switch 2 could do well for the first 12-18 months at that price imho. After that they will gradually cut price/make bundles/release a lite model and slowly drop switch 1.

I think a lot underestimate how much Nintendo will support Switch 1 after switch 2 releases. They won’t abandon their main source of revenue and 150mln~ user really soon.

They can have a slow/premium start for next Gen.

 

[Stinky Horse]

why think they are going back to a gradual price cutting strategy when nobody does that anymore? besides microsoft maybe.

 

[redmutineer75]

why think they are going back to a gradual price cutting strategy when nobody does that anymore? besides microsoft maybe.

It wouldn't be a gradual price cut, it would be a sudden one to coincide with the release of the new system. It would serve a similar role to the PS2 ca. 2006–2014 or the 3DS ca. 2017–2020; as a budget option with a huge existing library of titles for the price-conscious and as a good present to give to younger siblings while the older ones get the next-gen system.

 

[Vanillalite]

why think they are going back to a gradual price cutting strategy when nobody does that anymore? besides microsoft maybe.

They all aren’t against price cuts, but it’s just they haven’t had the ability to yet.

 

[NineTailSage]

I don't know enough to certainly, but I think that those CPU's can not compare eatch other by absolute numbers. Because they are different instructions tipe... I believe there are some test for mensure efficiency and then compare the tipes.

I agree that a lot of these CPU benchmarks can't directly be compared in gaming situations.
It's one of the reasons a lot of the major reports from manufacturers are talking TOPs now, because they want the new metrics related to Ai to sell their product to the public.

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

Off topic, I'm more worried about the next gen of 3d Legend of Zelda becoming less and less controllable in terms of production costs (if they stick to open world) leading Nintendo to fall into the same big production trap that's so dominant these days？After all, I'm afraid the next one is going to cost $100 million to develop。

 

[Stinky Horse]

It wouldn't be a gradual price cut, it would be a sudden one to coincide with the release of the new system. It would serve a similar role to the PS2 ca. 2006–2014 or the 3DS ca. 2017–2020; as a budget option with a huge existing library of titles for the price-conscious and as a good present to give to younger siblings while the older ones get the next-gen system.

I can understand that for moving the old Switch but it's not something I want to think about for the one that hasn't been announced yet. There is a train of thought that they will launch at over $400 and cut the price over the years, but I really doubt it.

 

[Lancelot]

Off topic, I'm more worried about the next gen of 3d Legend of Zelda becoming less and less controllable in terms of production costs (if they stick to open world) leading Nintendo to fall into the same big production trap that's so dominant these days？After all, I'm afraid the next one is going to cost $100 million to develop。

We don't have numbers so far, but TOTK likely got near (if not already exceeded) 100 million. It's not like Zelda will be the only one affected either, next gen isn't cheap, especially this one.

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

We don't have numbers so far, but TOTK likely got near (if not already exceeded) 100 million. It's not like Zelda will be the only one affected either, next gen isn't cheap, especially this one.

Yes, but Nintendo is smart to just keep the Legend of Zelda as a mega-budgeted and production-sized entry, and my concern is whether or not it'll be that EPD3 will also fall into big-production-ism against the backdrop of further cost increases and hamstring itself on gameplay innovations, and of course the next installment shouldn't yet fall into the problems mentioned above, but that's not necessarily true of the future

 

[Leinad]

I agree that a lot of these CPU benchmarks can't directly be compared in gaming situations.
It's one of the reasons a lot of the major reports from manufacturers are talking TOPs now, because they want the new metrics related to Ai to sell their product to the public.

By the way, we have the TOPS of T239?



I saw the "leak" of PS5Pro without exclusive NPU, saying that can do Maxx 300 TOPS (I guess). Some T234 models have between 100 and 275 whit dedicated NPU cores.

By the GPU amount of TOPS virtually possible for the PS5PRO, I imagine that in a real situation, they will suggest some pre arrange cores esque, like 80/20 or 70/30 (someone teel me if I say some BS) that will guarantee between 100 and 150TOPS for the console.



Can T239 beat or be equivalent to that?

 

[Leinad]

Off topic, I'm more worried about the next gen of 3d Legend of Zelda becoming less and less controllable in terms of production costs (if they stick to open world) leading Nintendo to fall into the same big production trap that's so dominant these days？After all, I'm afraid the next one is going to cost $100 million to develop。

Read 120mi somewhere for the last...

 

[Lancelot]

Yes, but Nintendo is smart to just keep the Legend of Zelda as a mega-budgeted and production-sized entry, and my concern is whether or not it'll be that EPD3 will also fall into big-production-ism against the backdrop of further cost increases and hamstring itself on gameplay innovations, and of course the next installment shouldn't yet fall into the problems mentioned above, but that's not necessarily true of the future

Their stuff has already taken an eternity to develop as it is and was still presumably delayed alongside its next gen platform, we're talking of 7 years for the premium EPD Tokyo just as an example, Zelda definitely won't be the only blockbuster series from Nintendo. At this point of the game, every game is an A-tier blockbuster at the very least and Nintendo is aware of that, they wouldn't be making a whole new building for game development otherwise.

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

Their stuff has already taken an eternity to develop as it is and was still presumably delayed alongside its next gen platform, we're talking of 7 years for the premium EPD Tokyo just as an example, Zelda definitely won't be the only blockbuster series from Nintendo. At this point of the game, every game is an A-tier blockbuster at the very least and Nintendo is aware of that, they wouldn't be making a whole new building for game development otherwise.

At least as far as current information goes EPD Tokyo had half the number of core staff working on 3d Mario as they did on the Legend of Zelda, and I've never heard of them needing to borrow a lot of manpower from other departments to put into the production, and by mainstream 3a gaming standards 3d Mario is squarely a mid-sized gaming project rather than a large scale project on par with Zelda.

 

[karmitt]

Off topic, I'm more worried about the next gen of 3d Legend of Zelda becoming less and less controllable in terms of production costs (if they stick to open world) leading Nintendo to fall into the same big production trap that's so dominant these days？After all, I'm afraid the next one is going to cost $100 million to develop。

What specifically accounts for most of the costs of current games?

Nintendo isn’t chasing typical trends like photo realism, film-like story presentation etc. Their cutscenes have improved quite a bit, but they’re maybe on par with Xenoblade in quality with far lower quantity, and we know those games aren’t breaking the bank.

I assumed most of the cost of Tears of the Kingdom was because of the complexity of expansion of their physics / chemistry engine. I’m not sure why the next Zelda should balloon costs over what we’ve seen this generation and with Breath of the Wild. The answer to how to make the next Zelda a success isn’t likely “make it bigger” or “greatly improve the assets.”

Even if they do take the route of improving assets, I doubt it’ll be done in a way that is unsustainable for their business - they’ve spent decades cultivating an audience understanding that they don’t chase bleeding edge visuals. Why start to diminish that now?

 

[Hermii]

By the way, we have the TOPS of T239?



I saw the "leak" of PS5Pro without exclusive NPU, saying that can do Maxx 300 TOPS (I guess). Some T234 models have between 100 and 275 whit dedicated NPU cores.

By the GPU amount of TOPS virtually possible for the PS5PRO, I imagine that in a real situation, they will suggest some pre arrange cores esque, like 80/20 or 70/30 (someone teel me if I say some BS) that will guarantee between 100 and 150TOPS for the console.



Can T239 beat or be equivalent to that?

If Im not wrong, that tops number of the PS5 Pro is if the entire gpu is dedicated to doing int 4 operations, in other words not remotely realistic in a real world scenario.

Similar to this:
"DirectML leverages unprecedented hardware performance in a console, with Xbox Series X benefiting from over 24 TFLOPS of 16-bit float performance and over 97 TOPS (trillion operations per second) of 4-bit integer performance on Xbox Series X. "

Defining the Next Generation: An Xbox Series X|S Technology Glossary - Xbox Wire

[Editor’s Note: Updated on 10/21 at 11AM to ensure it is now reflective of the capabilities across both of our next-gen Xbox consoles following the unveil of Xbox Series S.] As we enter a new generation of console gaming with Xbox Series X and Xbox Series S, we’ve made a number of technology...

news.xbox.com

 

[Lancelot]

At least as far as current information goes EPD Tokyo had half the number of core staff working on 3d Mario as they did on the Legend of Zelda, and I've never heard of them needing to borrow a lot of manpower from other departments to put into the production, and by mainstream 3a gaming standards 3d Mario is squarely a mid-sized gaming project rather than a large scale project on par with Zelda.

That's what it's been so far, the next 3D Mario can be safely assumed to be Nintendo's biggest game ever with how long it's been and the amount of effort put into it for such a long amount of time, a game that's been rumoured to be a gigantic open world as well. I'm not sure there's something in their pipeline that could be bigger, other than the next MK entry.

 

[TLZ]

$450 is just insane. That's au$700. No thanks.

$400 is around au$620. Ugh.

$350... au$550. Doable.

$300: au$460. Possibly $480. Great!

 

[Danny]

Off topic, I'm more worried about the next gen of 3d Legend of Zelda becoming less and less controllable in terms of production costs (if they stick to open world) leading Nintendo to fall into the same big production trap that's so dominant these days？After all, I'm afraid the next one is going to cost $100 million to develop。

Nintendo themselves already know that Switch 2 games will take up more resources, that is why they are building a new development building. Its inevitable that better tech leads to more/bigger games being made, and taking more developers to make. That doesn't mean that Nintendo will make 300 million games like Spiderman 2 any time soon though. But i could see Nintendo start making games that cost over 100 million much more often than before.

 

[Giancarlo]

Off topic, I'm more worried about the next gen of 3d Legend of Zelda becoming less and less controllable in terms of production costs (if they stick to open world) leading Nintendo to fall into the same big production trap that's so dominant these days？After all, I'm afraid the next one is going to cost $100 million to develop。

wast Breath of the Wild to have a $120 milion production budget?

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

The source of the open world rumor is zippo, are you sure you want to believe that rumor?

 

[Giancarlo]

The source of the open world rumor is zippo, are you sure you want to believe that rumor?

only in Nate the hate, Necrolipe and Pyoro i trust, nothing of this Z guy state i believe, if it seen something EPD 8 would do on the next 3D Mario(point to Bowser Fury)

 

[Lancelot]

What specifically accounts for most of the costs of current games?

Nintendo isn’t chasing typical trends like photo realism, film-like story presentation etc. Their cutscenes have improved quite a bit, but they’re maybe on par with Xenoblade in quality with far lower quantity, and we know those games aren’t breaking the bank.

I assumed most of the cost of Tears of the Kingdom was because of the complexity of expansion of their physics / chemistry engine. I’m not sure why the next Zelda should balloon costs over what we’ve seen this generation and with Breath of the Wild. The answer to how to make the next Zelda a success isn’t likely “make it bigger” or “greatly improve the assets.”

Even if they do take the route of improving assets, I doubt it’ll be done in a way that is unsustainable for their business - they’ve spent decades cultivating an audience understanding that they don’t chase bleeding edge visuals. Why start to diminish that now?

Aside from the obvious assets in need of many disciplines to be put together, it's the development time. When you got such a massive team making a game for so long, paying all those salaries for such a long time also adds up.

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

wast Breath of the Wild to have a $120 milion production budget?

There's absolutely no way Breath of the Wild cost more than $100 million to develop, unless by $120 million you mean total cost.

 

[Lancelot]

The source of the open world rumor is zippo, are you sure you want to believe that rumor?

It's easy to believe considering the team already gave us a hint of where they're going. It will be no small game, that's been on the wall for a while now.

 

[Darknut85]

wast Breath of the Wild to have a $120 milion production budget?

That was based on the “2 millions to break even“ (most likely including marketing). The real budget was likely smaller, my guess is 85 million USD.

 

[Giancarlo]

There's absolutely no way Breath of the Wild cost more than $100 million to develop, unless by $120 million you mean total cost.

this rumor came by a Forbes article, where they confused Miyamoto words that Breath of the Wild need to sell 3 milions to break even, 3×60=160

 

[Aufhebung RPG]

For reference, MGSV, which was also in development for 4 years but with higher resolution and graphical performance, revealed a development cost of $80 million, which Breath of the Wild can't possibly beat

 

[Hermii]

The source of the open world rumor is zippo, are you sure you want to believe that rumor?

The next 3D Zelda being open world is the safest bet ever, I don't care if Zippo said it.

 

[karmitt]

Aside from the obvious assets, it's the development time. When you got such a massive team making a game for so long, paying all those salaries for such a long time also adds up.

Marketing and distribution aside, everything around costs boils down to people and hours worked. This literally says nothing. The assets themselves are only a cost because of the hours required to create them.

So again, why are games taking so long, and do these choices impact Nintendo even when considering titles like Tears?

As my previous post mentioned, I don’t really think it’s a given. I don’t see why the next Zelda should be significantly more expensive to make than Breath of the Wild unless the team is going to be challenging themselves with some wild new physics goals - and again that’s a unique, distinctly Zelda-team related reason for increasing costs, not reflecting trends of the rest of the industry.