StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

[Danny]

I mean for games that are only on XBox console and not on the PC side ... I think the issue is simply going to be this simple ... tough shit unfortunately.

Those games won't work on the XBox portable (or maybe they can come up with some kind of emulation layer idea, but I doubt they will even bother with that).

XBox Series S/X in a lot of ways are the end of XBox hardware I think.

The next 3-5 years is mostly going to be a coronation party for the PC platform, bespoke XBox consoles will go away entirely and basically be absorbed into the PC world, Playstation 1st party games will all be coming to PC with some being day and date and others being maybe 6-12 month exclusives.

3rd parties that for whatever weird reason still aren't making PC versions of certain games, like no Madden NFL and NHL for PC from EA are going to just cave and make PC versions.

I agree, i think Nintendo will remain the last bastion of the traditional console model the coming years, and they will follow that model as long as it makes financial sense to do so, the only way they will ever go with PC releases like PS and Xbox will do is if the traditional console model is no longer viable in any form in the future.

Who knows, if Nintendo continues with physical media they could also be the last bastion for every gamer who cares about physical media, when PC, PS and Xbox will all have abandoned physical media by that point.

 

[Ojoloco]

 

[KarlRemarx]

I think people are getting it wrong when fixating on XBox Series S/X and how you make a portable from that.

XBox Series S/X are the end for traditional XBox hardware, in my opinion.

What the XBox portable is going to be is going to be like the ROG Ally or Steam Deck, just with an XBox skin put over it and access to a Microsoft store, but it'll effectively just be a PC, not a bespoke platform entirely.

The Steam Deck is basically Microsoft's future in the business, they're done with an "XBox platform", the platform is basically going to simply be a PC literally, just curated to MS' wants/desires (XBox overlay OS instead of Windows proper so as to not upset PC manufacturers, you buy games through an XBox/MS branded store where they get a licensing fee cut as Valve does on Steam).

In layman's terms what will happen is basically this ... you have an XBox Series X ... great. You buy this new XBox Portable. You buy a game like Starfield on your Series X, well it'll work on your XBox Portable. But hold on ... what version is the XBox Portable then? Is it a new port made for the new system? No. It'll just be the PC game basically with an optimized best settings pre-set that it defaults. And it'll be able to take your cloud save from your XBox Series X and just apply it to the PC game so you can pick up the system and play from the same point you left off on the console. But it's not literally going to be a "XBox Series P version of the game!". It's just the PC game, there is no actual "Series P" version of the game, any more than there is a ROG Ally version of any game.

The problems with the handheld approach are that:

1) Nobody in large numbers is going to choose an Xbox handheld over a current or future Steam Deck if Microsoft's handheld either disallows Steam or treats Steam as a 2nd class citizen on what is going to be Windows hardware. And if the hardware does fully support Steam (which would drive sales, for sure), what exactly is Microsoft's margin, given nobody will actually use Microsoft's store when given an alternative?

2) Customers will smell blood in the water if Microsoft start arbitrarily dropping hardware support in one area, and will correctly question the long term prospects of buying games on a PC store they don't currently use when they could just stick to Steam, which already sells Microsoft's own titles anyway

3) Valve's experiences with VR, controllers and Steam Deck is most likely going to result in Valve increasing the range of hardware they offer, which most likely will include a hybrid VR platform and probably a home console. Stuff like HDR is now being implemented in Linux and that's one of the last remaining pieces of the puzzle when it comes to Valve getting their ducks in a row for something that sits under a TV. Xbox narrowing their offering while Valve widens theirs is just going to reinforce what I mentioned above - it'll create a self-fulfilling narrative that Microsoft are on their way out and you're better off buying on Steam

4) Any struggles they've had against Sony will be miniscule compared to the competition they will face from Nintendo and Valve in the handheld/hybrid market, who have completely sewn up the general consumer and enthusiast audiences respectively. Hybrid wasn't some magic money-printing button Nintendo just stumbled onto - it's also the 1st piece of Nintendo hardware in their modern history where all of their development teams are focused on a single piece of hardware to the point of reaching a monthly or near-monthly cadence of software releases. Compare that to the state of Microsoft's software schedule this generation, even after acquisitions.

Microsoft are in this situation because they left their non-Anglosphere business to collapse and withdrew into nonsense like NFL and TV deals aimed at the US market they already had a heavy presence in, instead of expanding internationally at the exact moment where Sony were at their most vulnerable. Unless they are willing to make significant investment on the level of the X360 again to create supply chains and market presence where none exists, they'll continue to fail, because they haven't done the work Sony and Nintendo have done to create a permanent presence in the international market that can weather storms. And they will simply never be able to match Valve's customer-facing offering on PC, there is just no culture within their company to even start to compete there.

If Nadella is not willing to put the money into growing Xbox they're better off cutting their losses and refocusing around being a major 3rd party publisher and something they might actually succeed in: engine development and licensing. The fact that Microsoft were willing to impose mandatory temp contracts on a cornerstone franchise like Halo, regardless of what it did to their most recent console launch really says it all - they are unwilling to make the investment they need to stay in the market and are basically hoping for another Hail Mary unforced error from Sony (which is totally plausible, but no way to run an ongoing business).

This feels like another instance of Microsoft reacting late to something that threatens their Windows business, and Xbox being the best available hammer to strike at the problem, no matter the feasibility of competing. With the original Xbox it was paranoia that PS2 was going to become the de facto computing device in the living room - this sudden interest in handhelds today feels like a similar reaction to seeing Valve solving the issue of running Windows games without Windows, and what that means in future when Valve grows their hardware range.

 

[Terrell]

Is not expected a 4x jump in file size? Next Zelda with 60GB game?

These things do not scale like that, file size changes are dependent on the assets used. It will be an increase, but isn’t likely to be a simple multiplier.

Yoshi-P expressing interests about bringing FFXVI to other consoles after the PC version is finished. FFXVI is a pretty large game(90 GB), so I wonder how much it could be compressed for a potential Switch 2 version. Assuming it has to run on handheld mode as well, I'd imagine it would be pretty tough, a lot of assets would have to be graphically compromised. FFXVI was originally meant to come to the PS4 but it was pushing the console to its limits. The Switch 2 CPU and GPU would be leaps and bounds over the old PS4's architecture, so hopefully it would be easier to port. I wonder whether FFXVI or FF7R would be easier to bring to the Switch successor.

They could probably compress it a bit, but I think buyers are simply going to have to get used to the whole "only 16-32GB are on the cartridge, you have to download another 40GB at home" type thing.

This is potentially a solved problem already. From a post in September:

single-gate vertical channel NAND was confirmed to exist through Macronix, which either supplants or already works in tandem with the nitride charge-trapping technique to deliver 3D NAND with 2 or 3 bits per cell that are stable for a minimum of 40 years at room temp, with capacities up to 128GB on 48-layer 3D NAND for a reasonable price. Reading through it, I agree with @Thraktor that this sounds like a potential solution to their problem (higher capacities at low costs while retaining data stability) and a means for Macronix to keep their business with Nintendo.

It may also contexualize why Macronix has reportedly been sending Nintendo 3D NAND samples with progressively larger numbers of layers; without this knowledge, it looked merely like they were competing for the internal storage contract, but now seems more likely to be for Nintendo to test just how far capacities can be pushed for this specific tech at specific costs. Macronix just have to deliver it in time for launch.

A new tech from Macronix seemingly to replace XtraROM already exists that can achieve capacities that meet the needs of larger games, seemingly at smaller process nodes and using multiple layers to make production cheaper by having more capacity at the same die size as the chip in a current XtraROM-based Game Card.

And HEY, new potential reason for the hardware delay just dropped! If there was a delay getting production on this fired up, the launch delay could be because they wouldn’t want to launch without these new Game Cards.

But beyond that, there’s also AV1 decode acceleration that allows Nintendo to leverage smaller FMV file sizes by using the AV1 codec with comparable CPU overhead to decoding h.264/AVC (the codec most in use on Switch/PS4/XBO, unsure if PS5/XBS is now using h.265/HEVC). And good gravy, if a platform holder were to create a lossless audio decode acceleration method within their hardware, the file size savings to be gained from that would be massive.

 

[ziggyrivers]

I think we need to have a conversation on banned sources here

We really shouldn’t be getting multiple pages on fake leakers like Nash and HotGirl, it’s a waste of time

Exactly, especially when the thread strives to have a quality discussion

--------

Also, a Heroes remake before Adventure?

 

[Terrell]

* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *

 

[Maxrunner]

从常识来看，如果t239采用8nm工艺，switch2势必会更大、更厚，而之前传出的switch2屏幕可能是7.9英寸，让我怀疑是否是8nm，除非任天堂拿到了来自某处的超时代冷却技术，即使不是 4N，也将是比 8nm 更先进的工艺

what's with this?

 

[Machrider]

The problems with the handheld approach are that:

1) Nobody in large numbers is going to choose an Xbox handheld over a current or future Steam Deck if Microsoft's handheld either disallows Steam or treats Steam as a 2nd class citizen on what is going to be Windows hardware. And if the hardware does fully support Steam (which would drive sales, for sure), what exactly is Microsoft's margin, given nobody will actually use Microsoft's store when given an alternative?

2) Customers will smell blood in the water if Microsoft start arbitrarily dropping hardware support in one area, and will correctly question the long term prospects of buying games on a PC store they don't currently use when they could just stick to Steam, which already sells Microsoft's own titles anyway

3) Valve's experiences with VR, controllers and Steam Deck is most likely going to result in Valve increasing the range of hardware they offer, which most likely will include a hybrid VR platform and probably a home console. Stuff like HDR is now being implemented in Linux and that's one of the last remaining pieces of the puzzle when it comes to Valve getting their ducks in a row for something that sits under a TV. Xbox narrowing their offering while Valve widens theirs is just going to reinforce what I mentioned above - it'll create a self-fulfilling narrative that Microsoft are on their way out and you're better off buying on Steam

4) Any struggles they've had against Sony will be miniscule compared to the competition they will face from Nintendo and Valve in the handheld/hybrid market, who have completely sewn up the general consumer and enthusiast audiences respectively. Hybrid wasn't some magic money-printing button Nintendo just stumbled onto - it's also the 1st piece of Nintendo hardware in their modern history where all of their development teams are focused on a single piece of hardware to the point of reaching a monthly or near-monthly cadence of software releases. Compare that to the state of Microsoft's software schedule this generation, even after acquisitions.

Microsoft are in this situation because they left their non-Anglosphere business to collapse and withdrew into nonsense like NFL and TV deals aimed at the US market they already had a heavy presence in, instead of expanding internationally at the exact moment where Sony were at their most vulnerable. Unless they are willing to make significant investment on the level of the X360 again to create supply chains and market presence where none exists, they'll continue to fail, because they haven't done the work Sony and Nintendo have done to create a permanent presence in the international market that can weather storms. And they will simply never be able to match Valve's customer-facing offering on PC, there is just no culture within their company to even start to compete there.

If Nadella is not willing to put the money into growing Xbox they're better off cutting their losses and refocusing around being a major 3rd party publisher and something they might actually succeed in: engine development and licensing. The fact that Microsoft were willing to impose mandatory temp contracts on a cornerstone franchise like Halo, regardless of what it did to their most recent console launch really says it all - they are unwilling to make the investment they need to stay in the market and are basically hoping for another Hail Mary unforced error from Sony (which is totally plausible, but no way to run an ongoing business).

This feels like another instance of Microsoft reacting late to something that threatens their Windows business, and Xbox being the best available hammer to strike at the problem, no matter the feasibility of competing. With the original Xbox it was paranoia that PS2 was going to become the de facto computing device in the living room - this sudden interest in handhelds today feels like a similar reaction to seeing Valve solving the issue of running Windows games without Windows, and what that means in future when Valve grows their hardware range.

They are going to go 3rd party and be wildly successful at that, they'll be the no.1 3rd party publisher in the world, which is not a bad consolation prize.

It doesn't really matter how much MS sells of a Steam Deck-XBox knock off because really, they'd be out of the business of trying to build a hardware ecosystem. If it sells 10-15 million LTD, fine, great. It's just a PC really with an XBox skin slapped over it, nothing more. The XBox hardware as we've known it from 2001 until now (bespoke, home consoles) I think is coming to an end.

They'll just use the "XBox" brand on their subsidized Steam Deck knock-off and probably a home box PC variant of that, if it sells great, if it doesn't then big whoop. Their games will still be available on other platforms.

Some advantages they could have over Steam Deck though is they could get better chips from AMD as they are a much bigger company and probably can afford a little bit more of a loss per unit, they could ensure they have better hardware than say Steam Deck 2, ROG Ally 2, etc. That might sway some people to buy their version instead of a Steam Deck. I don't think Valve wants to get into a hardware pissing match with Microsoft on that end.

 

[Machrider]

These things do not scale like that, file size changes are dependent on the assets used. It will be an increase, but isn’t likely to be a simple multiplier.


This is potentially a solved problem already. From a post in September:

A new tech from Macronix seemingly to replace XtraROM already exists that can achieve capacities that meet the needs of larger games, seemingly at smaller process nodes and using multiple layers to make production cheaper by having more capacity at the same die size as the chip in a current XtraROM-based Game Card.

And HEY, new potential reason for the hardware delay just dropped! If there was a delay getting production on this fired up, the launch delay could be because they wouldn’t want to launch without these new Game Cards.

But beyond that, there’s also AV1 decode acceleration that allows Nintendo to leverage smaller FMV file sizes by using the AV1 codec with comparable CPU overhead to decoding h.264/AVC (the codec most in use on Switch/PS4/XBO, unsure if PS5/XBS is now using h.265/HEVC). And good gravy, if a platform holder were to create a lossless audio decode acceleration method within their hardware, the file size savings to be gained from that would be massive.

The problem I think is what does "affordable" mean.

Because even if 128GB is lets say (I'll just use simple numbers for the sake of this explanation) $8/unit for the cartridge, whereas a 32GB card is only $3/unit ... you may say "well 128GB is quite reasonable!" ... but that's $5/unit loss of profit margin for the publisher by using a 128GB cart instead of a 32GB one.

In this case even though 128GB is perfectly "affordable" I still think many/most devs would opt to choose the 32GB option anyway ... the rest you are forced to download and/or buy external storage for (that's not the publisher's problem).

Delaying the console because of physical game cards would be insane too, physical is becoming less and less important.

 

[justanotherperson]

I think it could appear in the console's reveal trailer, as a way to catch Sonic fans' attention. Also, it will look gorgeous.

Edit/Clarification: Sonic Heroes could be first shown in the console's reveal trailer to catch the group mentioned above by surprise and also show to Nintendo fans/purists(?) what their favorite franchises could look like with more horsepower, alongside the new 3D Mario.

 

[eye0h]

I think we need to have a conversation on banned sources here

We really shouldn’t be getting multiple pages on fake leakers like Nash and HotGirl, it’s a waste of time

Click the report button, that's how you start the conversation

 

[Giancarlo]

5 reasons that point Switch sucessor will be a evolution/revolution

 

[oldpuck]

I think people are getting it wrong when fixating on XBox Series S/X and how you make a portable from that.

XBox Series S/X are the end for traditional XBox hardware, in my opinion.

What the XBox portable is going to be is going to be like the ROG Ally or Steam Deck, just with an XBox skin put over it and access to a Microsoft store, but it'll effectively just be a PC, not a bespoke platform entirely.

The Steam Deck is basically Microsoft's future in the business, they're done with an "XBox platform", the platform is basically going to simply be a PC literally, just curated to MS' wants/desires (XBox overlay OS instead of Windows proper so as to not upset PC manufacturers, you buy games through an XBox/MS branded store where they get a licensing fee cut as Valve does on Steam).

In layman's terms what will happen is basically this ... you have an XBox Series X ... great. You buy this new XBox Portable. You buy a game like Starfield on your Series X, well it'll work on your XBox Portable. But hold on ... what version is the XBox Portable then? Is it a new port made for the new system? No. It'll just be the PC game basically with an optimized best settings pre-set that it defaults. And it'll be able to take your cloud save from your XBox Series X and just apply it to the PC game so you can pick up the system and play from the same point you left off on the console. But it's not literally going to be a "XBox Series P version of the game!". It's just the PC game, there is no actual "Series P" version of the game, any more than there is a ROG Ally version of any game.

You drastically underestimate the technological and business scale of what you are proposing. We know that Microsoft had not planned a handheld as recently as a few months ago, because of leaked documents in the FTC case. If a handheld is being delivered in the next 12 months, what you are proposing rides the borderline between "technologically impossible" and "fundamentally disastrous."

I don't see the business value in the model you are proposing, but I am not a businessman, so maybe I'm missing something brilliant. And certainly MS is capable of doing something penny-wise and pound-foolish. What I am certain of is that what you are proposing is technically more challenging than making a handheld Xbox.

 

[epicmartin7]

Maybe we'll get some goodies from 18.0.0.

 

[ILikeFeet]

* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *

 

[darthdiablo]

Maybe we'll get some goodies from 18.0.0.

Like stability?

 

[justanotherperson]

Like stability?

BAD WORD LIST UPDATE LEEETSGOOOOOOOO

 

[Machrider]

You drastically underestimate the technological and business scale of what you are proposing. We know that Microsoft had not planned a handheld as recently as a few months ago, because of leaked documents in the FTC case. If a handheld is being delivered in the next 12 months, what you are proposing rides the borderline between "technologically impossible" and "fundamentally disastrous."

I don't see the business value in the model you are proposing, but I am not a businessman, so maybe I'm missing something brilliant. And certainly MS is capable of doing something penny-wise and pound-foolish. What I am certain of is that what you are proposing is technically more challenging than making a handheld Xbox.

I think the hardware they are working on and have been working is basically a Steam Deck which is what they've been looking for a few years now. Phil Spencer's recent comments align to that, he says he loves his Lenovo Legion Go, but he wants an XBox version of that basically that can do things like seamlessly bring over his save data from an XBox console. He believes the XBox division can basically make a better version of that device.

Valve, ASUS, Lenovo are companies a fraction of the size of Microsoft, any kind of APU that AMD is giving them, Microsoft would be able to get that or better I'm sure.

Honestly Sony should make one too if all their games are eventually going to end up on the PC anyway. None of their console PS2/3 games were really ever available on the PSP or Vita, but if they were to make a Steam Deck knock off themselves, there would be plenty of "real deal, not bite size" Playstation software available for it right from day 1 ... Helldivers, Last of Us Part I, Ratchet & Clank: Rift Apart, Spider-Man Remastered, Spider-Man Miles Morales, Uncharted Collection, Horizon: Forbidden West, God of War 2018, etc. etc. would run on it with no porting needed.

Which is the whole point, if you're going to try the whole "bespoke portable console" thing, Sony already tried that and run up against a brick wall with PSP and Vita. It won't work. But a Steam Deck style device? That would work with minimal to no work required for ports, that a significantly different equation.

 

[ERezaSwitch]

Hmmm

 

[gnetc]

5 reasons that point Switch sucessor will be a evolution/revolution

Love this guys stuff, so interesting. Idk what it is about Nintendo they just are such an interesting company. It must have something to do with the secrecy.

 

[Meelow]

Hmmm

Switch 2 babyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy.

 

[bmfrosty]

Crackpot theory: Drake is 3nm.,

T210: 20 nm
T214: 16 nm

4 up in model number, 4 down in nm.

If Drake follows

T234: 8nm
T239: 5 up in model number, 8-5 = 3.

Just skip 8 and go straight to 5. Better that way.

 

[NintenDuvo]

Hmmm

The tree is bringing back some bad memories from the NX rumor days lol

but since he is a journalist can we all assume that he is not there to preview endless ocean or Paper Mario correct , don't want to get my hopes up but could it FINALLY BE TIME

 

[Dakhil]

I do wonder with the Samsung 5nm or 4nm nodes, I know people will say "well those can't be used for Switch 2 because Nvidia hasn't purchased any 5nm/4nm capacity from Samsung" .... I mean would we know if they had? Are they obligated to disclose that?

Not from Samsung officially, especially if Samsung's customers want confidentiality. But news outlets are definitely more than willing to report on Nvidia (and/or any major technology company) securing process node capacity from Samsung based on sources. One example is the Korea Economic Daily, which reported on Nvidia (as well as Qualcomm, IBM, and Baidu) securing capacity for Samsung's 3 nm* process node, back in 22 November 2022.
* → a marketing nomenclature used by all foundry companies

---

Ampere Datacenter | Ampere A =/ Ampere Consumer | Ampere B

Also, the Tegra Orin IP is Samsung Foundry IP. So that's another porting process and cleanroom implementation and team that need to be created.

To play devil's advocate, I think there's a possibility that Nvidia has ported parts of GA100's IPs, which uses TSMC's IPs, to GA10B, considering that GA10B can do the same amount of Half-Precision Matrix Multiply and Accumulate (HMMA), Integer Matrix Multiple and Accumulate (IMMA), and Binary Matrix Multiple and Accumulate (BMMA) instructions as GA100, whereas GA10x and GA10F can only do half of the HMMA, IMMA, and BMMA instructions as GA100 and GA10B.

I think definitely not as unlikely as people think.

---

It's weird that they still use Snapdragon 8 for their top of the line Galaxy S24 Ultra (and all US models period).

I think part of the reason is because Qualcomm has a huge amount of patents for 5G modems, as well as Qualcomm's licencing model.

We know it had pretty poor yields early on but were reportedly getting better. Regardless, yields could be irrelevant if Samsung was aggressive with getting this contract and they could make concessions to make that a non issue for Nintendo, such as only charging for operational chips.

I don't know if yields for Samsung's 5LPE process node improved.

Samsung's 4LPX process node, which is Samsung's 5LPP process node, which practically has very little difference with Samsung's 5LPE process node (here and here), was rumoured to only have 35% yields, with the Exynos 2200, which is fabricated using Samsung's 4LPE process node, not Samsung's 4LPX process node, having yields less than 35%.

I do think that rumour's accurate since after switching from Samsung's 4LPX process node to TSMC's N4 process node with the Snapdragon 8+ Gen 1, Qualcomm has been using TSMC exclusively for fabricating flagship Snapdragon SoCs.

And I disagree that yields could be irrelevant, at least from Nvidia's perspective, considering that yields do affect the amount of lower binned SoCs Nvidia receives, which Nintendo definitely has no use for. I doubt Nvidia wants a surplus of lower binned SoCs, especially since I can't really think of any potential high selling products that can sufficiently lower the amount of lower binned SoCs Nvidia has. (Definitely not Jetson since Nvidia's already using T234 for Jetson Orin, from a higher binned T234 for Jetson AGX Orin to a lower binned T234 for Jetson Orin Nano.)

---

But beyond that, there’s also AV1 decode acceleration that allows Nintendo to leverage smaller FMV file sizes by using the AV1 codec with comparable CPU overhead to decoding h.264/AVC (the codec most in use on Switch/PS4/XBO, unsure if PS5/XBS is now using h.265/HEVC).

No for the PlayStation 5, yes for the Xbox Series X|S.

---

 

[Detective Chimp]

Hmmm

Is it happening?

 

[ERezaSwitch]

The tree is bringing back some bad memories from the NX rumor days lol

but since he is a journalist can we all assume that he is not there to preview endless ocean or Paper Mario correct , don't want to get my hopes up but could it FINALLY BE TIME

I doubt it's about a preview, he is a Bloomberg reporter who reported about the 8" screen earlier this year and the 2025 delay

 

[kingman]

What is the PC GPU equivalent of Switch 1's GPU?

 

[Concernt]

Is it happening?

It's so over

We're so back

So it's so over

Because we're so back

N O W

 

[Hosermess]

Hmmm

My guess is it's just a coincidence. (he did like a tweet in his replies of a picture of the same building from a different vantage, by someone who I don't think has any connection to anything Nintendo related. So possibly an unrelated event happening nearby)

Sure he reports on Nintendo, but like the only thing he gets directly from them is a 'no comment' or a 'no no that guy is wrong' press release.

But hey, maybe they want to nip it in the bud this time.

 

[oldpuck]

I think the hardware they are working on and have been working is basically a Steam Deck which is what they've been looking for a few years now.

In September of last year Microsoft accidentally leaked their entire Xbox roadmap.

They explicitly state that there is no funding or plans to fund a handheld piece of hardware, and that handheld PCs are the province of third party partners. Instead, they are investing in a cloud console running a thin version of the Xbox OS, codename Keystone, and a new Xbox controller that enables cloud gaming on any device, codename Sebille.

They 100% have not been working on a handheld gaming PC "for years now." If they are releasing a handheld gaming device in the next 12 months (which is heavily rumored) than it is a completely new initiative. Either this is a rethinking of Keystone, or a completely new product.

Phil Spencer's recent comments align to that, he says he loves his Lenovo Legion Go, but he wants an XBox version of that basically that can do things like seamlessly bring over his save data from an XBox console. He believes the XBox division can basically make a better version of that device.

I believe he can. I don't think he can do so and make enough in software sales for him to subsidize the device. Either he sells the hardware at a profit, or he uses DRM and a custom OS to lock the hardware down.

Which was my original point. I just don't see how he sells an open platform at a loss. MS building an Xbox App that makes any handheld PC a really good Xbox experience, then offering a "reference device" - sure. Possibly with a custom, locked down OS that doesn't allow alternate storefronts. But then, man, that's not a lot of games that are available on said locked down device.

Maybe it's not locked down, but the Xbox App running on stock windows, where the user has all the flexibility to run Steam or the Epic Game Store. But if they go that, then the hardware needs to make money, because $35 game pass subscriptions aren't enough to sustain this thing.

 

[Gamecocks625]

Hmmm

Clearly he’s there to check out firmware 18.0

 

[TomNookYankees]

I mean, it's pretty clear with the other Sega announcements that a lot of the devs working in Sega now are people who grew up with Gen 6 consoles.

 

[Future Boy Nemo]

What is the PC GPU equivalent of Switch 1's GPU?

Closest is probably 830M, though that chip is clocked about 33% faster but has less memory bandwidth.

 

[omniryu]

Nobody in large numbers is going to choose an Xbox handheld over a current or future Steam Deck if Microsoft's handheld either disallows Steam or treats Steam as a 2nd class citizen on what is going to be Windows hardware. And if the hardware does fully support Steam (which would drive sales, for sure), what exactly is Microsoft's margin, given nobody will actually use Microsoft's store when given an alternative?

I disagree with that. Mainly for marketing. Honestly, I have not see any commercials for steam deck outside of any gaming platform (by platform, in this context, I mean gaming site, social media, YouTube, etc). If they chose Xbox it is because of marketing.

 

[ILikeFeet]

What is the PC GPU equivalent of Switch 1's GPU?

MX110

 

[Leinad]

These things do not scale like that, file size changes are dependent on the assets used. It will be an increase, but isn’t likely to be a simple multiplier.


This is potentially a solved problem already. From a post in September:

A new tech from Macronix seemingly to replace XtraROM already exists that can achieve capacities that meet the needs of larger games, seemingly at smaller process nodes and using multiple layers to make production cheaper by having more capacity at the same die size as the chip in a current XtraROM-based Game Card.

And HEY, new potential reason for the hardware delay just dropped! If there was a delay getting production on this fired up, the launch delay could be because they wouldn’t want to launch without these new Game Cards.

But beyond that, there’s also AV1 decode acceleration that allows Nintendo to leverage smaller FMV file sizes by using the AV1 codec with comparable CPU overhead to decoding h.264/AVC (the codec most in use on Switch/PS4/XBO, unsure if PS5/XBS is now using h.265/HEVC). And good gravy, if a platform holder were to create a lossless audio decode acceleration method within their hardware, the file size savings to be gained from that would be massive.

You're right. I was just too simplicity in that increase in a multiplier, but I just want bring the idea of increase to the table. Some games maybe can have a very small increase, some franchise can adopt new engines (secondly party , maybe go to Unreal) and some others just can jump some higher in open world direction, in reality is way moore complex...

 

[chocolate_supra]

Nintendo when they decide to invite Mochi into the building:

Seriously though I have a really really really really really really really really hard time seeing Nintendo opening their doors to the guy who's known for writing articles that they have to shut down. Maybe I'm wrong and they think it's better to bring him in under a heavy-duty NDA to try and control him or something

or maybe it's a whole thing with multiple publications and Bloomberg is just too big for them to ignore

or maybe he's toying with the internet by posting a picture he took from the street

 

[Darknut85]

Nintendo when they decide to invite Mochi into the building:

Seriously though I have a really really really really really really really really hard time seeing Nintendo opening their doors to the guy who's known for writing articles that they have to shut down. Maybe I'm wrong and they think it's better to bring him in under a heavy-duty NDA to try and control him or something

or maybe it's a whole thing with multiple publications and Bloomberg is just too big for them to ignore

or maybe he's toying with the internet by posting a picture he took from the street

One (Analyst) does not simple walk into Nintendo HQ…

 

[Skittzo]

Could it be that he's just in Kyoto and passed by the building?

 

[zestycrouton]

Man, I can't believe that reporter just doxed Nintendo like that. This is that youtuber drama all over again. Absolutely despicable.

 

[lexony]

Hmmm

Nintendo told him that they want to show him "something exciting" in order to lock him up somewhere in their basement so that he can‘t write inconvenient articles anymore.

They know that regardless of how right or wrong he might is, it‘s better to be safe than sorry.

 

[Hermii]

Nintendo told him that they want to show him "something exciting" in order to lock him up somewhere in their basement so that he can‘t write inconvenient articles anymore.

They know that regardless of how right or wrong he might is, it‘s better to be safe than sorry.

I still think Nintendo recalled early non Drake devkits because of his article.

 

[lexony]

I still think Nintendo recalled early non Drake devkits because of his article.

That‘s my headcanon too

 

[Machrider]

In September of last year Microsoft accidentally leaked their entire Xbox roadmap.

They explicitly state that there is no funding or plans to fund a handheld piece of hardware, and that handheld PCs are the province of third party partners. Instead, they are investing in a cloud console running a thin version of the Xbox OS, codename Keystone, and a new Xbox controller that enables cloud gaming on any device, codename Sebille.

They 100% have not been working on a handheld gaming PC "for years now." If they are releasing a handheld gaming device in the next 12 months (which is heavily rumored) than it is a completely new initiative. Either this is a rethinking of Keystone, or a completely new product.


I believe he can. I don't think he can do so and make enough in software sales for him to subsidize the device. Either he sells the hardware at a profit, or he uses DRM and a custom OS to lock the hardware down.

Which was my original point. I just don't see how he sells an open platform at a loss. MS building an Xbox App that makes any handheld PC a really good Xbox experience, then offering a "reference device" - sure. Possibly with a custom, locked down OS that doesn't allow alternate storefronts. But then, man, that's not a lot of games that are available on said locked down device.

Maybe it's not locked down, but the Xbox App running on stock windows, where the user has all the flexibility to run Steam or the Epic Game Store. But if they go that, then the hardware needs to make money, because $35 game pass subscriptions aren't enough to sustain this thing.

I misunderstood your original post, if they've had no long term plans for a portable but now we're hearing one is imminent, then that just absolutely points to them just aping the Steam Deck concept but putting a skin over it, which is something Phil Spencer has basically been saying ... they like devices like the ROG Ally and Lenovo Go, but they feel it would be better with the XBox branding (not exactly an unbiased POV, but all the same) and an unified XBox overlay.

They would make money off of it the same way Valve does on the Steam Deck ... licensing fees. You buy a game on your XBox Deck and you have to buy it from the new MS/XBox store and MS takes a 10%-25% cut. Now you can argue it'll never be as popular as Steam, but I don't think Microsoft feels that way or to the degree where they won't try it.

The whole point of these devices too is they can be rapidly brought to market because you don't need a software library that takes years to make for it, the software is already there (PC games), in Microsoft's case all their 1st/2nd party games would have a version on such a device ready to go day 1. AMD already has APUs here and now, MS could easily get the ROG Ally chip with a few tweaks here and there for their purposes or something better probably for 2025 or 2026 if that's how they want to go.

 

[Zedark]

Nintendo when they decide to invite Mochi into the building:

Seriously though I have a really really really really really really really really hard time seeing Nintendo opening their doors to the guy who's known for writing articles that they have to shut down. Maybe I'm wrong and they think it's better to bring him in under a heavy-duty NDA to try and control him or something

or maybe it's a whole thing with multiple publications and Bloomberg is just too big for them to ignore

or maybe he's toying with the internet by posting a picture he took from the street

Yeah, you probably won't want to snub Bloomberg in your reveal event, even if they delegate the report to Mochizuki. Not that I am convinced this is a reveal event or anything.

 

[Pokemaniac]

I still think Nintendo recalled early non Drake devkits because of his article.

That probably would have had to have happened a lot earlier than the article. The only real evidence we have of a non-Drake system would have been an early version of Switch OLED.

 

[Hermii]

That probably would have had to have happened a lot earlier than the article. The only real evidence we have of a non-Drake system would have been an early version of Switch OLED.

You dont think there could have been say Orin NVN2 devkits out in 2021?

Edit: I meant early devkits for Switch 2 without Drake, I didnt mean for a different system.

 

[Pokemaniac]

You dont think there could have been say Orin NVN2 devkits out in 2021?

Edit: I meant early devkits for Switch 2 without Drake, I didnt mean for a different system.

Back in 2021? Seems very doubtful at this point. That would imply devkits went out ~4 years before the (current supposed) release date. Even accounting for the rumor timeline not making much sense, it still seems a lot more likely that any devkits that may have existed would have been for the cancelled Switch Pro at that point. Something clearly went wrong with the timeline, and maybe a small amount of info about Drake was floating around at the time, but actual hardware of any sort just doesn't seem consistent with how prolonged this situation has become.

 

[Hermii]

Back in 2021? Seems very doubtful at this point. That would imply devkits went out ~4 years before the (current supposed) release date. Even accounting for the rumor timeline not making much sense, it still seems a lot more likely that any devkits that may have existed would have been for the cancelled Switch Pro at that point. Something clearly went wrong with the timeline, and maybe a small amount of info about Drake was floating around at the time, but actual hardware of any sort just doesn't seem consistent with how prolonged this situation has become.

I respectfully disagree that there ever was a cancelled pro. Theres zero evidence of any other soc upgrade than Drake was ever in development for Nintendo.

For all we know Switch 2 could have had more than one delay. Maybe SOC design went a lot smoother than the rest of the hardware.

 

[chocolate_supra]

I respectfully disagree that there ever was a cancelled pro. Theres zero evidence of any other soc upgrade than Drake was ever in development for Nintendo.

For all we know Switch 2 could have had more than one delay. Maybe SOC design went a lot smoother than the rest of the hardware.

There is evidence that the OLED dock was prepped for 4K output though. It may not be much but it's something. And I think it was laid out here before that Nintendo coulda been trying to get DLSS to run on Mariko at that point (since there was an early-ish version of DLSS that didn't require tensor cores), which could line up with the rumor from back then that Nintendo was dissatisfied with the power draw it took to achieve the added performance.