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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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CeramicPigeon said:
This might be considered off topic but did anyone else notice that Paper Mario and Luigi's Mansion 2 HD are releasing on a Thursday instead of a Friday? Do you guys think there's a reason for that?
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I don't think it's a thought worth discussing. Games come out whenever they want, except for Dragon Quest because Japan has legislation for that.
 
Discostew said:
It was discussed before that even if TSMC 4N is cheaper per wafer than SEC8N, it could be cheaper with SEC8N because Samsung sell based on working chips, not the whole wafer. I think that's correct. But then there's the aspect of yields. Even if Samsung sells based on actual working yields rather than per wafer, how big is that yield generally compared to TSMC 4N? I think it was said SEC8N definitely has lower yields, but I don't recall the actual number/%.

We can all imagine that Nintendo wants to sell a good 150+ million Switch NG systems throughout its life, and they would need to have extra for purposes of repair and such. Even if that is spread across 8 years, that's still an average of 18.75 million per year minimum. Given these facilities fabricating the SoCs are already in business making chips for other contracts, there's only so much room. With the situation with SEC8N having lower yields, could availability be a problem? When Nvidia was making the RTX 30 line using SEC8N, how many of those GPUs were being sold per year? I had looked at some old data, and for Q4 2021, it showed Nvidia having sold just over 10 million, but the chart I saw was based on the combined sales of all Nvidia's GPUs during that quarter, so it wouldn't be just the RTX 30 line. Even if it was just that line, there are multiple levels of that which make use of chip binning. For chips that don't match a target spec, they drop clocks and disable cores to use them for the lesser versions. A good way to not waste silicon. With consoles however, especially with custom chips, this isn't really an option, is it? They'd want the highest yield that match the expected specs.

We already know what's expected in the T239 from the Nvidia leak, particularly having 12 SMs accessible by devs. But when it comes to chip yields, this is the expected minimum number, not the maximum. So, it's possible that the T239 could have been made with more SMs for increased yield? That would mean the chips could be even bigger, right?

Maybe I'm just being long-winded about this, all because I want to imagine that TSMC 4N is what they are truly going to use.
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It's very difficult to know what the yield on 8N would be for T239, and of course like you've mentioned, if it was poor Nvidia and Samsung would've likely negotiated a deal to pay only for known good dies. My best guess is somewhere around 70-80% for a ~200mm² die. One could potentially glean a more accurate yield figure from looking at Nvidia GPU sales of SKUs based on GA107 (which is a 200mm² die) and determining the ratio of cut down to full dies sold, but then again this would be excluding nonfunctional dies and ignore that certain GA107s may be cut down for segmention/sales purposes despite hitting proper clocks/voltages on all cores. Not to mention that these sales figures would be very difficult to find, it would probably be easier to find an Nvidia or Samsung Foundry Insider to just give you the yield info lol.

Wafer supply wouldn't be a concern with SEC 8N/8LPA. It's their last DUV only node and will have a very long lifespan.

Regarding T239 having additional SMs on the die and then being cut down to 12 for yield purposes, I think it's exceptionally unlikely. Ampere has a maximum of 12SMs per GPC, so adding an additional 2 or 4SMs would require T239 to have 2 GPCs with 7 or 8 SMs each. The additional GPC would require additional logic to unify the 2 and would thus further increase power consumption and die area.

It's safe to assume that T239 as it will appear in Switch Next is the full die. And in my opinion, if it is on 8N, is only economically viable compared to 4N if Nvidia is paying for known good dies.
 
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Discostew said:
It was discussed before that even if TSMC 4N is cheaper per wafer than SEC8N, it could be cheaper with SEC8N because Samsung sell based on working chips, not the whole wafer.
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The problem is that lower binned chips are still technically considered working chips. And I imagine Nintendo has no use for lower binned T239s, especially if Nintendo still requires the CPU frequency to be the same in handheld mode and TV mode, similar with the Nintendo Switch.

So Nintendo and Nvidia still probably need more wafers when using Samsung's 8N process node to obtain the same amount of highest binned T239s that Nintendo and Nvidia can obtain with less wafers when using TSMC's 4N process node.

Basically, Nvidia has a much higher chance of having a surplus of lower binned T239s Nintendo has no use for with Samsung's 8N process node vs TSMC's 4N process node, which I think is definitely problematic for Nvidia, because I can't really think of any high selling product that can make use of the lower binned T239s.
KeijiKG said:
I don't think it's a thought worth discussing. Games come out whenever they want, except for Dragon Quest because Japan has legislation for that.
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That's actually not true. Square Enix voluntarily had Dragon Quest games release on Saturdays instead of on Fridays.
 
Is there like, a YouTube video or something that goes into a factory and shows how chips are made? Low yields, wafers, binned chips, dies, EUV, DUV… these are all terms I need to have visual references for. 😭
 
Dakhil said:
Samsung Semiconductor Newsroom on YouTube have some excellent videos uploaded on YouTube.

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It's a good thing they added this clarification, I was worried for a moment all they did was wave the magnifying glass around inspecting our T239s.
 
TLZ said:
Switch Attach??

no-michael-scott.gif



We'll have another Wii U situation.
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Switch Attach makes me immediately think it is a console that you attach to yourself.

Which makes me think of Nintendo partnering with Neuralink to make a console that plugs directly into your brain.

My body is ready.
 
InsouciantSoul said:
Switch Attach makes me immediately think it is a console that you attach to yourself.

Which makes me think of Nintendo partnering with Neuralink to make a console that plugs directly into your brain.

My body is ready.
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Lmao.

It makes me think "Switch Attachment", an accessory.

I hope this isn't true.
 
Looks like an error to me because the word Nintendo is missing in front of Switch.
Edit: Would look more realistic if the option was called Nintendo Attach
 
Would Nintendo make an accessory for the original Switch called the Switch Attach?

Like some sort of thing to support and satiate the current Switch userbase in the transition to the Switch 2?

I'm sure this is all made up, but if real it doesn't sound like the name of the next system. But rather an add-on for the Switch.
 
Dakhil said:
I think Nvidia could design a custom CPU based on the Armv9-A architecture with 32-bit support added to ensure that a hypothetical Nintendo Switch 3 can still be backwards compatible with the Nintendo Switch CPU wise.
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That wouldn't make much sense, they could just add the old ARM cores for BC, they are tiny anyway.
 
Sin & Punishment said:
Would Nintendo make an accessory for the original Switch called the Switch Attach?

Like some sort of thing to support and satiate the current Switch userbase in the transition to the Switch 2?

I'm sure this is all made up, but if real it doesn't sound like the name of the next system. But rather an add-on for the Switch.
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Why would they list an accessory of Switch alongside the next gen consoles? This option seems even less likely than NG having Switch Attach as name.
 
If Nintendo (as some reports were stating) are still that haunted by the botched ... everything ... from Wii U, then there's zero chance they would pick a name like Switch Attach.

This legit sounds like an accessory for Switch. With some "merciful viewpoint" you could at least think the U in Wii U could stand for 2.

Plus, it's also so easy to misread this as "Switch Attack", to add on the confusion ... so yeah.

It's either something simple like Switch 2, which leaves no way to interpret this as something other but the next version and a new console.
Or it's something completely removed from Switch.
 
Bonejack said:
If Nintendo (as some reports were stating) are still that haunted by the botched ... everything ... from Wii U, then there's zero chance they would pick a name like Switch Attach.

This legit sounds like an accessory for Switch. With some "merciful viewpoint" you could at least think the U in Wii U could stand for 2.

Plus, it's also so easy to misread this as "Switch Attack", to add on the confusion ... so yeah.

It's either something simple like Switch 2, which leaves no way to interpret this as something other but the next version and a new console.
Or it's something completely removed from Switch.
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Unless it's called... Nintendo Fans, Attach!

Wait no that sounds like a game..
 
How are we feeling about some sort of announcement or press release this week? Since GDC is next week.

I personally don't think it's happening because of the internal delay and there not being enough smoke in general anymore.

But it would be wise to avoid leaks at GDC. Also, Wii U, 3DS and NX were announced* in either March or April the year before they launched, so we're probably somewhat close anyway.

*announced through press releases, not actually revealed. That's something I'm certain will not happen before June.
 
Keviaar said:
How are we feeling about some sort of announcement or press release this week? Since GDC is next week.

I personally don't think it's happening because of the internal delay and there not being enough smoke in general anymore.

But it would be wise to avoid leaks at GDC. Also, Wii U, 3DS and NX were announced* in either March or April the year before they launched, so we're probably somewhat close anyway.

*announced through press releases, not actually revealed. That's something I'm certain will not happen before June.
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Before that infamous friday: "This is the week. It has to be this week!"

After that friday and if you believe the delay rumors: "Just another normal week."
 
Bonejack said:
Before that infamous friday: "This is the week. It has to be this week!"

After that friday and if you believe the delay rumors: "Just another normal week."
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At least we'll hear from deveolpers and get more specs rumors next week because of GDC, but it would be nice if
Nintendo just mention some sort of next gen hardware with a tweet would be more than enough to satisfy me.
 
Steve said:
At least we'll hear from deveolpers and get more specs rumors next week because of GDC, but it would be nice if
Nintendo just mention some sort of next gen hardware with a tweet would be more than enough to satisfy me.
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Of course there will be stuff leaking out just like it did back at Gamescom 2023, but unless Nintendo announces it (in any way) before GDC, i don't think many devs would like to openly discuss things in ways that are "open" to the public.

Basically ... with announcement -> possibly lotsa talk, without -> not so much leaking.
 
Steve said:
At least we'll hear from deveolpers and get more specs rumors next week because of GDC, but it would be nice if
Nintendo just mention some sort of next gen hardware with a tweet would be more than enough to satisfy me.
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Or we hear literally nothing. Just because devs may talk amongst themselves doesn't mean that info will reach circles like Nate or other insiders with contacts.
 
Bonejack said:
Of course there will be stuff leaking out just like it did back at Gamescom 2023, but unless Nintendo announces it (in any way) before GDC, i don't think many devs would like to openly discuss things in ways that are "open" to the public.

Basically ... with announcement -> possibly lotsa talk, without -> not so much leaking.
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Makes sense, i'm genuinely thinking which aspect they'll market the most, like the wii and ds marketed heavily that it has backward compatibility and the touch screen and motion control.
Curious to see the typical Nintendo gimmick, this time i think it'll either be a camera and more online functionality or maybe update NSO it can play every Nintendo console and making it the best way to play older titles. (a man can dream)
 
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eye0h said:
If ubisoft devs are there expect a picture of the console, full specs, maybe even a video and at least 12 confirmed launch titles
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Ubisoft is so strange because i'm surprised how easily their stuff get leaks to the internet, it's as if they don't care.
But we'll most likely see the dev kit a day before the switch 2 launches. Similar to the switch.
 
I’ve lost interest in Switch 2 atm since it comes out in a year or more. I don’t think we will hear anything about Switch 2 until after summer
 
Mr Swine said:
I’ve lost interest in Switch 2 atm since it comes out in a year or more. I don’t think we will hear anything about Switch 2 until after summer
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Brother, when there is delusion, there is hope and i believe we'll hear news pretty soon, either from insiders or from Nintendo themself

(don't think about the subreddit)

 
Freed Games said:
That wouldn't make much sense, they could just add the old ARM cores for BC, they are tiny anyway.
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I think that requires two separate CPU clusters, which I don't think is ideal from a hardware latency standpoint.

The Armv9-A architecture is backwards compatible with the Armv8-A architecture. Hence, the Armv9-A architecture still has 32-bit support (e.g. Cortex-A710, Cortex-A510 (Version: 0102)). Just not the Cortex-A CPUs after the Cortex-A710 (e.g. Cortex-A715).
 
Switch Attach?

Has anyone considered that spelling errors are a frequent occurrence?

Maybe it’s called the Switch Attack!!!

Attack meaning it’s going to become self aware, and destroy us all. I, for one, am onboard with our Switch Attack overlords.
 
Just call it Switch Too (2) -
tag line: "Still stuck on dull consoles under the tv ?? you can now Switch too(2)....everywhere...
 
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Z0m3le said:
You do realize that your speculation is years outdated. 2 years ago on March 1st 2022, we got T239's specs INSIDE of NVN2 a custom API built for Nintendo by Nvidia, in it we got tests for DLSS, we have cuda core count with those specs confirmed, we have the CPU core count, the memory bus, we even have the GPU clocks... You can speculate all you want about your imaginary version of the console, or you can join the discussion on what the leak said.

1536 Cuda cores (confirmed inside the API to all be active) running at 660MHz portable in a DLSS test, consuming 4.2w on just the GPU, this is 2TFLOPs. A second GPU clock of 1.125GHz or 3.456TFLOPs also found in the DLSS test, this is likely the standard clock when docked, and 1.38GHz for 4.24TFLOPs, a boosted clock. This test was done in summer 2021 before silicon existed, so this last high clock isn't a stress test as originally thought, but a target clock for use, likely as I said, the boosted max clock.

48 Tensor cores, also capable of 2TFLOPs portable (fp16) at the same time as the fp32 cuda cores, and up to 4.24TFLOPs docked fp16 performance, though various other bottlenecks will limit the system's performance, so it's better to think of Switch 2 as half of the PS5's performance, with DLSS offering better than FF7 Rebirth's imagine quality (as this game uses nearest neighbor upscaling), I don't use this game as a means to bash it, but as a means to hype Switch 2's imagine quality.

12 RT cores, this should allow it to out do PS5 ray tracing.

12GB to 16GB ram, with a low chance of 8GB ram, though insiders have heard that it has at least 12GBs for games. LPDDR5 102GB/s or LPDDR5X 137GB/s.

8 A78C ARM cores that perform better per clock than Ryzen 2 CPU cores in PS5/Xseries consoles. clocked somewhere between 2GHz and 2.6GHz. These cores are over 3 times faster than XB1/Switch's CPU per clock, and there is 8 of them, 7 for games... This means at 2GHz, it offers 14 times the performance of Switch's CPU for games, or somewhere around 70% of the PS5's CPU for games.

"Before you lash out because you don't like the numbers you are facing, remember this isn't my opinion, these are the limits which the TDP and production process are imposing - as per Nvidia themselves."

You've overlooked that your opinion is all you are actually going over here. The API tests expose all 1536 cuda cores, and all tests were done on 1536 cuda cores, it's the full GPU, the chip would simply be smaller if it were to use less cores, that is how low clocked chips are, they don't need dead transistors, because lower frequencies improve chip yields. 8nm is pure speculation, and even the person bringing it up was told 3-4TFLOPs, so using it as some means to bring the chip to half that performance is just more nonsense. 8GB RAM doesn't align with the rumors, and we have reports that the Matrix awakens demo ran better than on other current gen consoles. That means the system isn't limited to 8GB ram and half the GPU performance than being reported. The linux kernel exposes the CPU as a single 8 core cluster, so it's 8 A78C cores, none of this is really up for debate anymore, it's been known for 2 years. That is why people like me have moved our discussions away from this thread, because we don't need to speculate any longer. All of these things are basically known, heck performance is more or less known at this point, Switch 2 is about half the performance of the PS5 when docked and something near a PS4 Pro when portable thanks to DLSS improving image quality and the small screen hiding imperfections in the IQ.
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So, the power draw we have for Switch 2 are these:

  • Portable mode (2TFLOPs): GPU at 660MHz, consuming 4.2w
  • Dock standard (3.4TFLOPs): GPU at 1.125GHz, consuming 9w
  • Dock boost (4.2TFLOPs): GPU at 1.38ghz, consuming 12w

The original Switch, when play a heavy game, like BotW, the total consume is aroung 7W on portable. The division is more or less that:
  • APU: 3w
  • Screen: 4w
  • others: less than 1w

Switch 2 screen, if is similar to the amazing Rog Ally's Screen, can consume something like 4 - 8w.

So, it's not impossible that Switch 2 can draw somelthing like 10 - 15w on portable mode, what is very close to what steam deck consume. If the battery is the same size than deck, the time on game will be 2.5 hour on heavy games.

That can be the low Nintendo ever done with a battery if they don't put a bigger and more durable battery or use a OLED screen.

So, what can be cheap: LCD with a bigger battery or OLED with a battery closer to what current Switch have?
 
Bonejack said:
If Nintendo (as some reports were stating) are still that haunted by the botched ... everything ... from Wii U, then there's zero chance they would pick a name like Switch Attach.

This legit sounds like an accessory for Switch. With some "merciful viewpoint" you could at least think the U in Wii U could stand for 2.

Plus, it's also so easy to misread this as "Switch Attack", to add on the confusion ... so yeah.

It's either something simple like Switch 2, which leaves no way to interpret this as something other but the next version and a new console.
Or it's something completely removed from Switch.
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Nintendo Flip
 
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