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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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boodream said:
And this is true for games consoles too. The PS4 and Xbox Series came out 7 years after the PS3 and Xbox One. The idea of making the Switch 1's potential 8-year lifecycle seem like some kind of mind-boggling, insane surprise seems far-fetched, to say the least.
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I think that people like me (and I can't be the only one) took Iwata's comments way back then at face value, couple that with overestimating how fast mobile technology was actually progressing behind the scenes, ... I think a lot of us were expecting a three year cycle with smaller upgrades which would have been able to grow the hardware base to massive numbers beyond what we even have now, and creating a userbase that doesn't have the boom bust cycle they've always dealt with.
Obviously NOW we know that's just not the case for whatever reason ... but it wasn't far fetched in 2017 (and 2018 and 2019) to think this way. I still think they should have, but oh well.
 
if Nintendo want for Switch sucessor to suceed and have a 7/8 year lifecycle just like Switch, the console must be flexible enought, it could get games designed around the PS4, PS5 and PS6 hardware, will 16GB of RAM, 4.4 Teraflops in docked mode and 2 in handheld mode, at 4NM, allow Nintendo to archive thi
 
kingman said:
I do have one question though in regards to the questionability of 8 nm, that I don't think has been brought up (or if it has, I missed it, so apologies)

Wouldn't it just be a practical problem for the foundry to continue having to manufacture on an increasingly old process as time goes on? Don't companies like TSMC, Samsung, etc. want to just keep moving to the newest processes? Working on an older ones probably crowds out the better, newer ones I'd imagine. And if Switch 2 would have the same success as Switch, Samsung or whoever, would be making 8 nm chips all the way to 2032, when even the PS5 and XBSX/S moved to newer processes all the way back in 2020?
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8nm is going to be around a long time, by design. Why is a little complicated, but the short answer is just that no, foundries don't want to move on to newer nodes rapidly, and neither do many of their customers.

Not all sections of a chip benefit equally - or even at all - from node improvements. If your chip size is dominated by something that doesn't improve well with a node shrink, the advantage of moving on is small, but the cost is high.

Plenty of chip customers don't need semi-annual redesigns. For example, the WiFi/BlueTooth chip in the Switch. It's power draw isn't dominated by the chip, but by the Wifi signal itself, so there aren't significant power savings by moving on. There isn't a new major WiFi standard every year, and what minor changes occur can be handled with new firmware.

Nowadays, new nodes aren't just smaller versions of the previous node, but new tech. That means customers need to redesign their chips to move to the newest node, and the setup cost for a new node is much higher.

And because it's new tech, it takes longer and longer for nodes to get really mature. Yields go up, power efficiency tends to improve. And there are opportunities for "half nodes." Half-nodes being pure backwards compatible shrinks of an existing node, that don't require significant redesigns or new tech.

So plenty of customers don't want to move on, foundries would love to squeeze as much money out of their existing investment as possible, and there is a long tail of small improvements that let foundries push margins up and costs down.

8nm is technically a "half node" - it's a shrunk down 10nm class node. At the time, it was competing against TSMC's 7nm, a "true" next-gen node. 10nm class nodes were built around Deep Ultra Violet, or DUV, lithography. 7nm class nodes were set to use the successor, Extreme Ultra Violet (EUV) lithography. At the time, EUV machines were extremely rare (there were like, 4 of them, and TSMC owned 3), cost more to run (they require 10x the electricity), and they also required chip designers to rebuild their chips entirely.

Samsung decided to position their 8nm node as the long term DUV node. As long as there are customers with DUV designs, SEC8 will be the best node available to you. Right now, that positioning might not be looking great, which is why Samsung is incentivized to offer great deals.
 
oldpuck said:
8nm is going to be around a long time, by design. Why is a little complicated, but the short answer is just that no, foundries don't want to move on to newer nodes rapidly, and neither do many of their customers.

Not all sections of a chip benefit equally - or even at all - from node improvements. If your chip size is dominated by something that doesn't improve well with a node shrink, the advantage of moving on is small, but the cost is high.

Plenty of chip customers don't need semi-annual redesigns. For example, the WiFi/BlueTooth chip in the Switch. It's power draw isn't dominated by the chip, but by the Wifi signal itself, so there aren't significant power savings by moving on. There isn't a new major WiFi standard every year, and what minor changes occur can be handled with new firmware.

Nowadays, new nodes aren't just smaller versions of the previous node, but new tech. That means customers need to redesign their chips to move to the newest node, and the setup cost for a new node is much higher.

And because it's new tech, it takes longer and longer for nodes to get really mature. Yields go up, power efficiency tends to improve. And there are opportunities for "half nodes." Half-nodes being pure backwards compatible shrinks of an existing node, that don't require significant redesigns or new tech.

So plenty of customers don't want to move on, foundries would love to squeeze as much money out of their existing investment as possible, and there is a long tail of small improvements that let foundries push margins up and costs down.

8nm is technically a "half node" - it's a shrunk down 10nm class node. At the time, it was competing against TSMC's 7nm, a "true" next-gen node. 10nm class nodes were built around Deep Ultra Violet, or DUV, lithography. 7nm class nodes were set to use the successor, Extreme Ultra Violet (EUV) lithography. At the time, EUV machines were extremely rare (there were like, 4 of them, and TSMC owned 3), cost more to run (they require 10x the electricity), and they also required chip designers to rebuild their chips entirely.

Samsung decided to position their 8nm node as the long term DUV node. As long as there are customers with DUV designs, SEC8 will be the best node available to you. Right now, that positioning might not be looking great, which is why Samsung is incentivized to offer great deals.
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As the node is based on DUV and will last for the next few years, would it be possible to see even greater improvements? Something that goes beyond "8nm"?
 
LinkURL said:
As the node is based on DUV and will last for the next few years, would it be possible to see even greater improvements? Something that goes beyond "8nm"?
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Dunno, I would guess not? Not my field, so I'm a little ignorant, but Samsung has spawned up a lot of sub-nodes optimized for specific use cases. So there might be further to go just by specializing?
 
Thraktor said:
The speed of the ADATA card is interesting, as it's only claiming 600MB/s read speeds. I'd wager this is a limitation of using the existing 28nm Phison SDE controller, and they have to throttle down to get it to work in a microSD form factor without melting.

The host controller which supports both UHS-II and SD Express is interesting, but I doubt it will change much in the camera market, as almost every manufacturer has already adopted CFexpress. Panasonic might adopt it, as they have a history with SD, having developed the cards in the first place, and I don't believe that they've used CFexpress at all yet, but all the other manufacturers are pretty well committed to CFe by this point. My guess is that the renewed push is more focussed on the microSD form factor, either driven directly by Nintendo, or just generally the number of devices (handheld gaming PCs, drones, etc.) that are limited by current microSD performance but are unlikely to adopt the physically larger CFe format.

Incidentally, speaking of CFexpress, I missed that the first CFe 4.0 Type A cards were announced by Lexar, with up to 1TB of capacity and read speeds of 1.8GB/s. No word on price, but likely very expensive due to the small market and professional customers. Incidentally, they also recently launched a 1TB M.2 2230 SSD which you can get for $80, and is likely using identical hardware to their CFe 4.0 cards, but without the plastic case.
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I sincerely wonder if a Nintendo backed micro SDExpress market would open up a shift from cfexpress in cameras. I know that the cameras are all type B with two pcie lanes, but would one lane be of sufficient speed for those applications if the price was right? If Nintendo opens this market, I could also see SBCs like the raspberry pi supporting it as well. At one pcie lane, anywhere where 1TB or 256GB of storage is sufficient, but microsd is too constrained, I could see this. If this is the play, then I wonder if we'd see cameras that have two versions, one with MicroSD Express and one with CFExpress, or even packed with an adapter.

I think the market is there for CFExpress to have some competition, especially given it's prosumer pricing.
 
bmfrosty said:
I sincerely wonder if a Nintendo backed micro SDExpress market would open up a shift from cfexpress in cameras. I know that the cameras are all type B with two pcie lanes, but would one lane be of sufficient speed for those applications if the price was right? If Nintendo opens this market, I could also see SBCs like the raspberry pi supporting it as well. At one pcie lane, anywhere where 1TB or 256GB of storage is sufficient, but microsd is too constrained, I could see this. If this is the play, then I wonder if we'd see cameras that have two versions, one with MicroSD Express and one with CFExpress, or even packed with an adapter.

I think the market is there for CFExpress to have some competition, especially given it's prosumer pricing.
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The issue is that the pro photography market is quite sticky. Photographers spend a lot of money on memory cards with the expectation that they'll be able to still use them when they upgrade their cameras, unless there's a change to a much superior format. So if Canon decided that its new cameras will feature SD Express instead of CFe, offering no improvements in speed but breaking backwards compatibility, then that's going to piss off a lot of their customers. Having two separate versions of each camera also seems like a pain for everyone involved, especially given the small size of the camera market these days. The microSD format is also just physically too small for the photography market, where you could easily lose a card (and more importantly the photos on it) if you were swapping between them.

MicroSD Express cards will likely be cheaper than CFe cards, at least if Nintendo use them and bring enough volume to the market, but CFe would win on pricing if they were competing at similar margins. CFe cards get to use off the shelf NVMe controllers that are manufactured in the millions, while SD Express requires custom controllers made in much lower volumes, so they'll inherently be more expensive to manufacture. We've seen 1TB 2230 SSDs with identical hardware to CFe 4.0 cards selling at around $80, and even those are selling at a higher margin than 2280 SSDs.
 
Thraktor said:
The issue is that the pro photography market is quite sticky. Photographers spend a lot of money on memory cards with the expectation that they'll be able to still use them when they upgrade their cameras, unless there's a change to a much superior format. So if Canon decided that its new cameras will feature SD Express instead of CFe, offering no improvements in speed but breaking backwards compatibility, then that's going to piss off a lot of their customers. Having two separate versions of each camera also seems like a pain for everyone involved, especially given the small size of the camera market these days. The microSD format is also just physically too small for the photography market, where you could easily lose a card (and more importantly the photos on it) if you were swapping between them.

MicroSD Express cards will likely be cheaper than CFe cards, at least if Nintendo use them and bring enough volume to the market, but CFe would win on pricing if they were competing at similar margins. CFe cards get to use off the shelf NVMe controllers that are manufactured in the millions, while SD Express requires custom controllers made in much lower volumes, so they'll inherently be more expensive to manufacture. We've seen 1TB 2230 SSDs with identical hardware to CFe 4.0 cards selling at around $80, and even those are selling at a higher margin than 2280 SSDs.
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I can see the small size being an issue in the field. I'm mostly interested in what may happen with the market with two much-faster-than-microsd competitors in the market. As far as I know, CFExpress hasn't really taken off outside of cameras and a bastardized xbox version, but I think there could be a larger market for MicroSD Express than just Nintendo, even if Nintendo is the biggest single player.

I'd love it if the next SBC or tablet I buy supports a faster storage standard than MicroSD.
 
fwd-bwd said:
To adopt the microSD Express format, a CE manufacturer may need a controller/bridge IC, a card connector (aka socket), and test tools—bus analyzers, protocol analyzers, etc. AFAIK, the controller/bridge IC and test tools for SD Express should be compatible with microSD Express. Since there are already CE products in the market with an SD Express slot (e.g., MSI, Lenovo, and Asus), we may surmise that the supply and readiness of controller/bridge IC and test tools for SD Express, and by extension microSD Express, are not an issue.

That leaves the question of microSD Express connector’s availability. My quick search suggests that there are only three connectors advertised for sale currently:

Rego 9177MSD7-F00001
  • Backward compatible with UHS-I cards
  • Rated for PCIe 3; PCIe 4 compatibility unknown
  • Rego revealed the product back in 2022. However, I can’t find any distributors stocking it, therefore it probably hasn’t been mass manufactured.
Amphenol 101019966912A
  • Backward compatible with UHS-I cards
  • Rated for PCIe 3; claimed to be PCIe 4 ready
  • In stock at several distributors I checked; seems readily available
Amphenol 10102166A812A
  • 3-in-1 connector, supporting UHS-I, UHS-II and Express (image source)
idSGilg.png

  • Rated for PCIe 3; claimed to be PCIe 4 ready
  • I only found two distributors have this in stock; doesn’t seem widely available
Looking at these, I think that if a CE manufacturer such as DJI/Nintendo/Valve would like to include a microSD Express slot on their products, there isn’t much obstacle. The other side of the chicken-and-egg equation is the card manufacturers. Samsung is now only “sampling” a microSD Express card. Will there be more?

In December 2023, the SD Association stated that Adata, Lexar, Phison, and SanDisk had adopted SD Express, but they did not specify whom among those will support the microSD Express format (image source):

G6XSoKG.png


However, an Amphenol presentation slide indicated that the company was collaborating with SanDisk on the microSD Express connector. It doesn’t necessarily mean that SanDisk will release microSD Express cards, but they were at least planning to support it at one point (image source):

0iin7IO.png
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I think there's a possibility Nintendo worked with Samsung on a custom microSD Express 7.0 controller, especially going by the LinkedIn profile founded by RedSpring back in September 2023.
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Steve said:
Really? Might makes sense if the rumor of the switch Oled being the switch pro but was changed at the last moment because of the chip shortage and also because of how well the switch was still selling.
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Yea. Also makes sense if HDR was a planned feature for the oled. The dock and the display is capable of it. I'm more partial to that theory.
 
Hermii said:
Yea. Also makes sense if HDR was a planned feature for the oled. The dock and the display is capable of it. I'm more partial to that theory.
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One question thought. Do we know if the people who are developing the switch 2, are they also the one who’s made the rumored switch pro, or are they completely different teams who makes revisions and pro systems and the other making the switch 2
 
bmfrosty said:
I can see the small size being an issue in the field. I'm mostly interested in what may happen with the market with two much-faster-than-microsd competitors in the market. As far as I know, CFExpress hasn't really taken off outside of cameras and a bastardized xbox version, but I think there could be a larger market for MicroSD Express than just Nintendo, even if Nintendo is the biggest single player.

I'd love it if the next SBC or tablet I buy supports a faster storage standard than MicroSD.
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I could see it being used in a few other devices like handheld gaming PCs, drones, etc., and maybe SBCs. Although I believe you can just connect an NVMe drive to a Raspberry Pi 5 these days, which may be a better option. I just don't see it ousting CFe from the photography market where it's already well established.
 
Steve said:
One question thought. Do we know if the people who are developing the switch 2, are they also the one who’s made the rumored switch pro, or are they completely different teams who makes revisions and pro systems and the other making the switch 2
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There's no evidence we found that there's ever been an upgrade chip for Nintendo in development at Nvidia, other than t239.
 
Steve said:
Do we know if the switch 2 dock will maybe able to output native 4K because we know that botw was demoed at gamescom with 4K and 60fps, but do we know if it was native?
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To be absolutely fair, we don’t know anything. We only know it was a rumor this Gamescom demonstration even occurred.

But to answer question directly, yes, the dock would most likely support 4K output, even if Nintendo themselves does not really use it much. It would be dumber at this point to cap the dock at 1080p…in the year 2024/2025 than to just allow up to 4K.

The PS5, and both Xbox Series systems all support 4K out of the box, though the Series S doesn’t have many games that actually render that natively. But Series S still supports it anyway because it was probably better Long term to do so than not. I think the same applies for Switch 2, and it’s dock.
 
Thraktor said:
I could see it being used in a few other devices like handheld gaming PCs, drones, etc., and maybe SBCs. Although I believe you can just connect an NVMe drive to a Raspberry Pi 5 these days, which may be a better option. I just don't see it ousting CFe from the photography market where it's already well established.
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You absolutely can connect a m.2 drive to raspberry pi 5, but it takes an adapter. I can't tell you if it can be used as bootable storage or not. I haven't purchased a raspberry pi 5 yet.
 
Steve said:
Really? Might makes sense if the rumor of the switch Oled being the switch pro but was changed at the last moment because of the chip shortage and also because of how well the switch was still selling.
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The other point people frequently brought up is that HDMI 1.4 is so outdated that it was cheaper to make the upgrade to HDMI 2.0 with the new dock rather than to keep having to purchase 1.4 output chips.

That said, I still fully expect the OLED dock to be forwards compatible with the new console when the firmware to unlock the extra power to the dock is sent via the Update Dock function that was added to the Switch OS in v12.0.0. Hell, if/when streaming services come to Switch a la Netflix/Peacock/Prime/Paramount/Apple, I expect those apps that come to Switch could also theoretically stream 4K content from the OG Switch if it's in the OLED dock.

...it'd just be nice if that OLED dock ever got that firmware update to justify the 'Update Dock' function
 
I was going back a few pages on the thread and found the (amazing) oldpuck's post on Project Indy and the conception of the Switch.

One part that really strikes me tho is when Nintendo after firming the contract with NVidia and set the date for October 2016 made all the unannounced Wii U games Switch games. I mean it's not surprising because Wii U was a flop, but what unannounced games were barely starting production by 2014/early 2015?

I can only think of ARMS and Luigi's Mansion 3 which most likely started as Wii U titles. If anyone with more familiarity with the Giga Leak knows if any games aimed at the new console were mentioned or something, I'd really appreciate it!

It also pretty much delivers why 2016 was so empty, and further makes the Switch's delay and Switch 2 delay more wise decisions. Releasing Switch in October 2016 at all costs would probably make Mario Kart 8 Deluxe its only launch game until like 6 months after until ARMS/Splatoon 2 could be released(and BotW if they didn't delay the system alongside it).
 
Shoulder said:
To be absolutely fair, we don’t know anything. We only know it was a rumor this Gamescom demonstration even occurred.

But to answer question directly, yes, the dock would most likely support 4K output, even if Nintendo themselves does not really use it much. It would be dumber at this point to cap the dock at 1080p…in the year 2024/2025 than to just allow up to 4K.

The PS5, and both Xbox Series systems all support 4K out of the box, though the Series S doesn’t have many games that actually render that natively. But Series S still supports it anyway because it was probably better Long term to do so than not. I think the same applies for Switch 2, and it’s dock.
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That’s really exciting, I think the switch 2 probably the only system in recent year in which we might see a huge leap in graphical fidelity akin to n64 to GameCube, especially since it’s Nintendo. So I’m overall really excited to see what the first party devs might make, especially the odyssey team, team Zelda, hal laboratory, retro studio and especially monolith software since in my opinion Nintendo biggest strengths as a game company would be their variety’s of games and genres
 
Marce-chan said:
It also pretty much delivers why 2016 was so empty, and further makes the Switch's delay and Switch 2 delay more wise decisions. Releasing Switch in October 2016 at all costs would probably make Mario Kart 8 Deluxe its only launch game until like 6 months after until ARMS/Splatoon 2 could be released(and BotW if they didn't delay the system alongside it).
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If Nintendo is able to put 2 killer apps and genre defining games then they have pretty much won this console generation. If we have 2 games that has the same quality and hype like Mario odyssey and botw I can see them dominating the gaming sphere, I have a lot of faith in Nintendo new president because from all the interviews and stuff I’ve heard he seems to value exclusives and consistent release schedule plus his favourite game is golf story which I find funny

(who knows I might be wrong, but that’s my personal take)
 
Steve said:
If Nintendo is able to put 2 killer apps and genre defining games then they have pretty much won this console generation. If we have 2 games that has the same quality and hype like Mario odyssey and botw I can see them dominating the gaming sphere, I have a lot of faith in Nintendo new president because from all the interviews and stuff I’ve heard he seems to value exclusives and consistent release schedule plus his favourite game is golf story which I find funny

(who knows I might be wrong, but that’s my personal take)
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I believe they can and they will!!

March 2025 puts it right in the spot to have both a brand new 3D Mario game and a new Mario Kart in the first calendar year. I also think it can even have an Animal Crossing in the first 12 months.
 
0
Procheno said:
Pick one:

16gigs Ram
64gigs storage
8nm

10gigs ram
1TB storage
8nm

8gigs ram
256gigs storage
4nm
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First, hands down

I've come around that 8nm won't be the disaster clusterfuck like some anticipate, but I do think more RAM is especially critical in ensuring the longevity of this device so no one is feeling desperate for a pro upgrade 4 years in.

But also the Switch OLED is already 64GB; the smallest storage will be on the new console is 128GB
 
Dakhil said:
Yes, although not with 100% certainty, especially since there's a nonzero (although not particularly high) chance Nintendo and Nvidia could use TSMC's N6 process node for fabricating Drake, which is much better than Samsung's 8N process node, but not as good as TSMC's 4N process node.
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I don't think TSMC's N6 process has been talked about much in this thread. Is it also cheaper(bang for buck) than the Samsung 8N? Is it close to 4N in efficiency?
 
Giancarlo said:
knowing Nintendo, it will problaby be 8nm, 8GB of RAM and 64GB of internal memory, expecting more then this is to set yourself for disappointment(i would love if this is wrong)
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We kinda know it will almost certainly have 12gb because it just makes sense, and they probably want us to be able to install 3d Mario, pokemon, and cod without having to buy a expensive SD express 256gb card.
 
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Gerald said:
What im think is that Switch 2 will help Series S and Series S will help Switch 2 in terms of 3P AAA games
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I think that every game that's for the Series X is required to also run on the Series S. This is primarily a memory constraint.

I think that the S2 will have 16GB of RAM. I think part of that equation will be about constraints that will be in common with the PS5 that are what matters in every market where Xbox is irrelevant. This is not the only reason for 16GB. It makes sense in a wider strategy for a system that will be around for about a decade when all is said and done.

EDIT: On a similar note, I don't know if it makes sense for 2028ish generation xbox and playstation systems to go past 24GB of RAM.
 
bmfrosty said:
I think that every game that's for the Series X is required to also run on the Series S. This is primarily a memory constraint.

I think that the S2 will have 16GB of RAM. I think part of that equation will be about constraints that will be in common with the PS5 that are what matters in every market where Xbox is irrelevant. This is not the only reason for 16GB. It makes sense in a wider strategy for a system that will be around for about a decade when all is said and done.

EDIT: On a similar note, I don't know if it makes sense for 2028ish generation xbox and playstation systems to go past 24GB of RAM.
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Yeah whole devs complain is about Series S RAM not GPU that’s why I’m think Nintendo will go with 16 100%,I’m think both will double ram to 32GB in gen10, Next Xbox will be apparently in Late 2026, PS6 in Late 2028
 
Gerald said:
Yeah whole devs complain is about Series RAM not GPU,I’m think both will double ram to 32GB in gen10, Next Xbox will be apparently in Late 2026, PS6 in Late 2028
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I'm not convinced on 32GB of RAM. I think there's room to grow on the CPU/GPU side though. I guess the big question is what PC games seem to want now. I really don't know if many PC games are terribly constrained by graphics card RAM and we've gone beyond the need for 8GB there.
 
Gerald said:
Yeah whole devs complain is about Series S RAM not GPU that’s why I’m think Nintendo will go with 16 100%,I’m think both will double ram to 32GB in gen10, Next Xbox will be apparently in Late 2026, PS6 in Late 2028
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Really? I’ve always heard it was because of CPU, but it might have only been starfield, also Series S ironically most likely helped the switch 2 when it comes to game development, like the switch is 12-16 gb ran then most third party games will most likely be able to run on the switch 2
 
bmfrosty said:
I'm not convinced on 32GB of RAM. I think there's room to grow on the CPU/GPU side though. I guess the big question is what PC games seem to want now. I really don't know if many PC games are terribly constrained by graphics card RAM and we've gone beyond the need for 8GB there.
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yeah I'd expect maybe 24 or something
 
Steve said:
Really? I’ve always heard it was because of CPU, but it might have only been starfield, also Series S ironically most likely helped the switch 2 when it comes to game development, like the switch is 12-16 gb ran then most third party games will most likely be able to run on the switch 2
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CPU is the same as Series X (just clocked 0,2ghz lower, not enough to matter).

Series S has 7,5 gb memory reserved for games, vs series x 13,5 gb, which definitely matters.

GPU is the easiest to scale, so memory is the biggest problem by far.
 
Steve said:
Really? I’ve always heard it was because of CPU, but it might have only been starfield, also Series S ironically most likely helped the switch 2 when it comes to game development, like the switch is 12-16 gb ran then most third party games will most likely be able to run on the switch 2
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Series S have exactly same CPU as Series X no nah it was never complain, When devs have only 7.5GB available for games on XSS they will have 14-15GB on Switch 2( assuming 1-2GB for OS)
 
Steve said:
Really? I’ve always heard it was because of CPU, but it might have only been starfield, also Series S ironically most likely helped the switch 2 when it comes to game development, like the switch is 12-16 gb ran then most third party games will most likely be able to run on the switch 2
Click to expand...
If switch 2 have similar spec with XSS than thats true, and i hope it will. But i doubt Nintendo care about 3P AAA port, they maybe more focus on the cost of their console.
 
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