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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

I'm not convinced on 32GB of RAM. I think there's room to grow on the CPU/GPU side though. I guess the big question is what PC games seem to want now. I really don't know if many PC games are terribly constrained by graphics card RAM and we've gone beyond the need for 8GB there.
I’m convince in 32GB( at least in PS6 since is Late 2028 but Xbox also should have that in Late 2026) because devs love RAM and PS6 will be then for another 8 years so is just thinking long term and make dev life easier like it is Mark Cerny philosophy
 
yeah I'd expect maybe 24 or something
Right. I just honestly do not know. As said in another comment, XBox series reserves 2.5GB for the OS. Let's inflate that to 3. Do next generation games need 29GB of RAM, or should they be fine in 21?
 
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I don't think TSMC's N6 process has been talked about much in this thread. Is it also cheaper(bang for buck) than the Samsung 8N? Is it close to 4N in efficiency?
I think so since TSMC's N6 process node has higher yields, which means Nintendo and Nvidia should get more non-defective chips from less wafers with TSMC's N6 process node vs Samsung's 8N process node.

And going by TSMC's numbers, TSMC's N6 process node is ~45% less power efficient than TSMC's 4N process node. So no. But TSMC's N6 process node should be much more power efficient compared to Samsung's 8N process node.
 
I refuse the question
30f
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16gigs ram
512gigs storage
5nm
 
if Nintendo want for Switch sucessor to suceed and have a 7/8 year lifecycle just like Switch, the console must be flexible enought, it could get games designed around the PS4, PS5 and PS6 hardware, will 16GB of RAM, 4.4 Teraflops in docked mode and 2 in handheld mode, at 4NM, allow Nintendo to archive thi
It doesn't need any of that. Look at Switch currently. Even if it's weaker than PS4, it's receiving some support alongside PS5/XSeries.

Switch 2 will be hybrid. That alone means it will be weaker than any current gen console, no matter which tricks it has up to it's sleeve. Nintendo is better focused on its own path: Try to bring as much 3P as possible, sell as much hardware and software as it can and keep their business sustainable.
 
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One question thought. Do we know if the people who are developing the switch 2, are they also the one who’s made the rumored switch pro, or are they completely different teams who makes revisions and pro systems and the other making the switch 2
Nintendo has one hardware division now, and while they break up to work on individual projects, the hardware lead for the Switch, the Lite and the OLED model are all the same. So it seems reasonable that if there was a Pro revision, it was substantially the same people who are working on the successor console now.

On the Nvidia side, the development of the current chip and the last Switch chip is also substantially the same group of people. If there was work on a Pro revision, then they would have to have been involved at some level.

So while we don't know exactly what was going on with the rumored pro, it's the same team, the Switch team.
 
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16gigs ram
512gigs storage
5nm
1TB storage.

EDIT: I'm dead serious about this. No tongue-in-cheek.

SUPERSEDING EDIT: I may not be able to accurately read parts descriptions and take for granted that GB is GB and not Gb.

if game is good it will sells good
But how good? What is the line? Fully serious here. Napkin math - best case scenario for a 3rd party is that they sell at a full price of $70 and get to keep 70% of the price, but have to give another $8 to the platform holder. They end up with $41 a copy. They have to sell about 4.9 million copies just to break even. Someone with better numbers will correct me, but I doubt that the number of copies sold goes down by much. Probably the other way.
 
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16gigs ram
512gigs storage
5nm

six hundred forty nine united states of america dollars and ninety nine united states of america cents before tax

(unironically would sacrifice the storage all the way down to 128GB if it meant $450 USD for the others to be true)
 
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I'm not convinced on 32GB of RAM. I think there's room to grow on the CPU/GPU side though. I guess the big question is what PC games seem to want now. I really don't know if many PC games are terribly constrained by graphics card RAM and we've gone beyond the need for 8GB there.
i think it depends on how much vram they want to leave for the integrated gpu

if theyre aiming for up to 12GB for the gpu alone, 24GB total RAM might be enough

but like, if they're looking for 16 instead, then maybe they'd want more but 24GB could still be viable
 
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Another question is about whether AAA budget games make money consistently anymore. How many copies must a game sell to make back a $200,000,000 budget?

This depends on

-Price the game was sold at (which includes how much was sold at a discount)
-If the game is first or third-party (first-parties take 15% of revenue from retail copies and 30% of revenue from digital copies)
-The percentage of games sold at retail (retailers take 30% of revenue from retail copies and manufacturing/shipping costs $3-5)
-If the game is licensed from a brand your company does not own (eg, the NFL, Avatar, etc)

Avatar the game probably needed to sell 8-10m copies to break even by making $200m whereas God of War Ragnarok would generate $200m for Sony after 3.5m copies sold assuming a 50/50 digital split (as it has no licensing fees, no first-party fees, and didn't need to sell at a discount like Avatar) and that's not even counting the revenue generated for Sony thanks to selling PS5s.

Making a AAA single player third-party game is extremely hard (this becomes more complicated with microtransactions so I'm ignoring multiplayer titles). It's much easier for a first-party.
 
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8nm is going to be around a long time, by design. Why is a little complicated, but the short answer is just that no, foundries don't want to move on to newer nodes rapidly, and neither do many of their customers.

Not all sections of a chip benefit equally - or even at all - from node improvements. If your chip size is dominated by something that doesn't improve well with a node shrink, the advantage of moving on is small, but the cost is high.

Plenty of chip customers don't need semi-annual redesigns. For example, the WiFi/BlueTooth chip in the Switch. It's power draw isn't dominated by the chip, but by the Wifi signal itself, so there aren't significant power savings by moving on. There isn't a new major WiFi standard every year, and what minor changes occur can be handled with new firmware.

Nowadays, new nodes aren't just smaller versions of the previous node, but new tech. That means customers need to redesign their chips to move to the newest node, and the setup cost for a new node is much higher.

And because it's new tech, it takes longer and longer for nodes to get really mature. Yields go up, power efficiency tends to improve. And there are opportunities for "half nodes." Half-nodes being pure backwards compatible shrinks of an existing node, that don't require significant redesigns or new tech.

So plenty of customers don't want to move on, foundries would love to squeeze as much money out of their existing investment as possible, and there is a long tail of small improvements that let foundries push margins up and costs down.

8nm is technically a "half node" - it's a shrunk down 10nm class node. At the time, it was competing against TSMC's 7nm, a "true" next-gen node. 10nm class nodes were built around Deep Ultra Violet, or DUV, lithography. 7nm class nodes were set to use the successor, Extreme Ultra Violet (EUV) lithography. At the time, EUV machines were extremely rare (there were like, 4 of them, and TSMC owned 3), cost more to run (they require 10x the electricity), and they also required chip designers to rebuild their chips entirely.

Samsung decided to position their 8nm node as the long term DUV node. As long as there are customers with DUV designs, SEC8 will be the best node available to you. Right now, that positioning might not be looking great, which is why Samsung is incentivized to offer great deals.
Makes sense. And that's why we can't rule it out.

Matured design, can be had at a great deal, customisable? That's Nintendo all over it. Nintendo loves matured hardware at great prices. They want to make money. And if they can customise it however they want, that's the perfect deal.
 
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Question for those who know more than I do about certain things. If MicroSD Express ends up being the storage expansion solution for Switch 2, does it make sense to use NVMe for internal and cartridge storage as well?

They announced it for Gamecube Wii and WiiU though
There's an interesting thought here for me that if the big new thing for the Switch 2 is that it's the big tech update that gets 4K and a bunch of third party games that have been absent because of porting issues, then why not talk about the specs? Talk about RAM and graphics capabilities and talk about it all being in a hand held form factor.
 
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Question for those who know more than I do about certain things. If MicroSD Express ends up being the storage expansion solution for Switch 2, does it make sense to use NVMe for internal and cartridge storage as well?


There's an interesting thought here for me that if the big new thing for the Switch 2 is that it's the big tech update that gets 4K and a bunch of third party games that have been absent because of porting issues, then why not talk about the specs? Talk about RAM and graphics capabilities and talk about it all being in a hand held form factor.
Not at all. Going with SD Express is in itself a workaround to not go with that, NVME can be quite hot and power hungry.
 
I’m convince in 32GB( at least in PS6 since is Late 2028 but Xbox also should have that in Late 2026) because devs love RAM and PS6 will be then for another 8 years so is just thinking long term and make dev life easier like it is Mark Cerny philosophy
Honestly, what is after PS6? I don't see any true major improvements after 6
 
Not at all. Going with SD Express is in itself a workaround to not go with that, NVME can be quite hot and power hungry.
Over a lot of reading and including posts by @Thraktor even, it reads that the heat is more dependent on the flash itself and the speed at which it's read, and only really becomes an issue over time. MicroSD Express is NVMe. Same with CFExpress. The only real difference is the thermal expectations (and therefore throttling) and the number of PCIe lanes in use. M.2 offers 2 or 4 depending, and CFExpress is 1, 2, or 4 depending on A, B, or C, and SD Express can be either 1 or 2, depending on if it's Micro or Regular sized.
 
Over a lot of reading and including posts by @Thraktor even, it reads that the heat is more dependent on the flash itself and the speed at which it's read, and only really becomes an issue over time. MicroSD Express is NVMe. Same with CFExpress. The only real difference is the thermal expectations (and therefore throttling) and the number of PCIe lanes in use. M.2 offers 2 or 4 depending, and CFExpress is 1, 2, or 4 depending on A, B, or C, and SD Express can be either 1 or 2, depending on if it's Micro or Regular sized.
It also helps SD Express uses the same slot layout, so you could theoretically insert an UHS-1 SD in there. Big help for physical bc.
 
no i am realistic, i very skectical, Nintendo is gonna be able to have such powerful console, has we not learned nothing for Wii? Nintendo aim for ways for us to enjoy, a purely gameplay focused focus, not a graphical focus(at up to Sony/Microsoft
Except this wasn't what the Switch was? They went with one of the most powerful mobile gpus for its time.
 
It also helps SD Express uses the same slot layout, so you could theoretically insert an UHS-1 SD in there. Big help for physical bc.
I'm mostly thinking internal - NVMe SSDs come in BGA packages too. For cartridges, I'm thinking that data pins switch modes upon negotiation - which will probably be a requirement anyway.
 
no i am realistic, i very skectical, Nintendo is gonna be able to have such powerful console, has we not learned nothing for Wii? Nintendo aim for ways for us to enjoy, a purely gameplay focused focus, not a graphical focus(at up to Sony/Microsoft
did you learn nothing from Switch? or are you ignoring the chip used was top class at the time.
 
I'm mostly thinking internal - NVMe SSDs come in BGA packages too. For cartridges, I'm thinking that data pins switch modes upon negotiation - which will probably be a requirement anyway.
There's a pretty good chance you're right on the money. S1 cartridges used a different layout compared to UHS-1 microSDs but essentially achieved the same theoretical speeds (implying it's the same standard underneath, in this case NVME), just convenience for the manufacturer really.
 
no i am realistic, i very skectical, Nintendo is gonna be able to have such powerful console, has we not learned nothing for Wii? Nintendo aim for ways for us to enjoy, a purely gameplay focused focus, not a graphical focus(at up to Sony/Microsoft
"Because Nintendo" is the worst reason to reject analysis or thinking.
 
no i am realistic, i very skectical, Nintendo is gonna be able to have such powerful console, has we not learned nothing for Wii? Nintendo aim for ways for us to enjoy, a purely gameplay focused focus, not a graphical focus(at up to Sony/Microsoft
I think it is the other way around. Has Nintendo learned anything in 20 years.
The Wii U barely had any games on it. You get too proud, you fall hard. You have competition out there and Nintendo has one system and that means only one chance.

Also, more CPU means more power. The Wii U could barely play Botw without killing itself. CPU power give us more for the gameplay. Totk isn't something that can be done on the 3DS or the Wii.

Also, what's wrong with graphical powerhouse? That's fine, Nintendo doesn't need the super realistic graphics but support third party who do. That's the problem in the "Nintendo don't need power" argument. Because, at the end of the day, games matters. That's the bottom line. That's why Playstation has been so successful for over 25 years.
 
Can we talk about how little streaming service and online apps there are on the switch, like where I live there’s only YouTube and Crunchyroll, so hopefully the switch 2 will have Netflix and Disney plus other media based service because I’m dumbfounded how Netflix don’t have their service on a device with 139 million players.
 
Not at all. Going with SD Express is in itself a workaround to not go with that, NVME can be quite hot and power hungry.

NVMe is just a communication protocol, so it can't be inherently hot or power hungry, it depends entirely on the hardware that's implementing it. NVMe SSDs can be hot/power hungry, but usually that's referring to higher-end drives with embedded DRAM, and measured while performing write-heavy workloads. If Nintendo were to use an NVMe SSD then they would be using a cheaper DRAMless model, which consume less power, and write speeds would be limited by download speeds, which are extremely low when compared to the capabilities of these drives. The more relevant measure would be power consumption during reads, which is what the console would be mostly doing.

Looking at the WD Black SN770M, an M.2 2230 drive of the type Nintendo might use, power consumption for reads doesn't exceed 1.2W, which is quite reasonable, and around the same level as UFS. I would say Nintendo is much more likely to go with UFS, as it's an established BGA form-factor which they can solder to the motherboard, and can very easily source from a number of different manufacturers. Still, I wouldn't rule out an NVMe SSD from a power consumption standpoint.
 
Another question is about whether AAA budget games make money consistently anymore. How many copies must a game sell to make back a $200,000,000 budget?
I saw this question and decided to punch some numbers in.

So 200 million US dollars is a smidge under the cost of The Last of Us Part 2 and Horizon Forbidden West. A good place to start as to be expected. I'm going to assume that distribution takes up the cost of roughly 30% of a AAA title. I'm using this number anyway because that's roughly Valve's take of a sale on Steam.

200,000,000 / (70 x 0.7) = 4,081,632 units

That's not a small number, but a lot more games are making it... but it shouldn't be expected to be the norm, especially since most games can't make that number. Thankfully the reported budgets for more games don't get close to that number, it seems like Sony specifically is the company that decides to go overboard. In fact, Spiderman 2's budget is 315 million... which... jesus christ.

I think a lot of AAA games do make money, it's just that Sony is realizing gradually that they're walking the fine line between small profits or massive losses.
 
"Because Nintendo" is the worst reason to reject analysis or thinking.
I think people still think that this Nintendo is still the Wii U era Nintendo because if we see take a look, we can see that they have change a lot.
(Just compare the wii U and switch marketing and you can immediately see the change of strategy)
 
"Because Nintendo" is the worst reason to reject analysis.
sorry this is weird lol you just said last page you doubt Nintendo cares about 3rd party AAA ports and they're more concerned about console costs. I think they're fully aware that missed 3rd party games - AAA or not - is a missed 30% cut and over time it'll negate the cost of having a more expensive system to make
 
Can we talk about how little streaming service and online apps there are on the switch, like where I live there’s only YouTube and Crunchyroll, so hopefully the switch 2 will have Netflix and Disney plus other media based service because I’m dumbfounded how Netflix don’t have their service on a device with 139 million players.
They will probably come but they would not be advertised.
 
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Can we talk about how little streaming service and online apps there are on the switch, like where I live there’s only YouTube and Crunchyroll, so hopefully the switch 2 will have Netflix and Disney plus other media based service because I’m dumbfounded how Netflix don’t have their service on a device with 139 million players.
I have no idea how these corporate relationships work. I'd think that if Nintendo reached out to the big streamers (Netflix, Amazon Prime, Apple TV+, Disney+, Paramount+, and Peacock), all 6 would be there. I'm staring at a android tv box remote I have, and it has Youtube, Netflix, Disney+, and Paramount+ buttons on it. All 4 of those companies paid to have dedicated buttons on that remote.
 
no i am realistic, i very skectical, Nintendo is gonna be able to have such powerful console, has we not learned nothing for Wii? Nintendo aim for ways for us to enjoy, a purely gameplay focused focus, not a graphical focus(at up to Sony/Microsoft
Because Nintendo aside, they learned everything they had to learn. They delivered the fastest handheld console back in 2017 with specs that, considering market availability at the time, were cutting edge. They're seemingly doing it again with its successor, this time with forward thinking as their main driving force. I think it's fine to let them deliver the fastest handheld devices, no one else at the industry is doing this besides non-custom PC handhelds with zero specific optimization.
 
sorry this is weird lol you just said last page you doubt Nintendo cares about 3rd party AAA ports and they're more concerned about console costs. I think they're fully aware that missed 3rd party games - AAA or not - is a missed 30% cut and over time it'll negate the cost of having a more expensive system to make
There is always have something that i think they should do, but in the last gen they seems not willing to do, and that make me a little bit confuse.
 
If the PS6 can use this* in a fuller scale as in every character looks this good. It is a wrap. I would say if we have mass pedistrian on that level not just the main cast in an open world.... then we don't need a PS7.


But can anyone make money doing that?
 
Lol no...😭😭😭
lol. I should qualify further. There are questions about the cost of a machine capable of that with the slowing of Moore's law and such. Then there's the cost of game development on top of that. I think we might be into the era of streaming games where that gets reasonable and you're just paying a subscription fee (or hourly) to play the game.
 
lol. I should qualify further. There are questions about the cost of a machine capable of that with the slowing of Moore's law and such. Then there's the cost of game development on top of that. I think we might be into the era of streaming games where that gets reasonable and you're just paying a subscription fee (or hourly) to play the game.
You are out on a hunt to hurt my feelings. Is a true cloud future viable?
 
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If the PS6 can use this* in a fuller scale as in every character looks this good. It is a wrap. I would say if we have mass pedistrian on that level not just the main cast in an open world.... then we don't need a PS7.


Well, you don't think of graphics advancements as a pragmatic collection of efforts delivered by a given developer, but the tools they'll have available as a result of said advancements. Once pathtracing and AI&ML is made standard, gaming's technical stack will have caught up with that of Hollywood's CGI even (just real time)... Whatever comes after is anyone's guess, other a Pro model to perfect the IQ of the base model.
 
Well, you don't think of graphics advancements as a pragmatic collection of efforts delivered by a given developer, but the tools they'll have available as a result of said advancements. Once pathtracing and AI&ML is made standard, gaming's technical stack will have caught up with that of Hollywood's CGI even (just real time) so... Whatever comes after is anyone's guess, other a Pro model to perfect the IQ of the base model.
Idk, whatever it is. I want no parts with the cloud.
 
You are out in a hunt to hurt my feelings. Is a true cloud future viable?
The only thing that's still up in the air is latency. If that can get handled, and this is much a problem of the TCP protocol (defined in RFC 793 in September 1981) as anything, then I think cloud gaming could be a thing. Between QUIC and a couple of other things (on which I'm blanking on names right now - probably in my post history), then I think it really is possible.
 
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Idk, whatever it is. I want no parts with the cloud.
Cloud will never happen if cost cutting is what they're looking for, all the opposite. It'll destroy the little profits they're having at the moment... Just look at the streaming landscape and how much money those platforms keep bleeding after decades of existing, or just Gamepass even.
 
You are out in a hunt to hurt my feelings. Is a true cloud future viable?
If it means for better graphics and development cost, most likely.
I think we have reached a point with realism in games, that it's no longer unique. not saying it look bad, but that it'll become outdated real quick. I think horizon zero dawn is a good example
 
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