So post direct and Q3 readout, I still do not see things improving in Q4 for Nintendo. They have nothing to hang their hat on software wise except maybe BOTW pre-orders or an uptick in voucher sales with folks using it for TOTK, but that’s not going to move the needle. I fully expect another slash on hardware forecasts. It’s wild to see the president advocating for potential price increases given their current situation.
At this rate, the current leadership are likely to be shaken up; they were handed an opportunity and are botching the momentum IMO. Ever since the switch was released, consumers have said it’s great, but we want more power. That’s literally been the mainstream tagline and remains the one ask for this device since release. If they’re seriously overthinking this and is a reason why they’re holding it back, then they desperately need a leadership overhaul.
Investors are advocating for a price increase. They see inflation eating into margins, want those margins up and have seen Sony and Microsoft start leading the way, while the highest priced unit is the best swlling
Meanwhile, the Switch is selling better than just about any console in this stage of it's life, is still short of it's 6th birthday, which isn't uncommonly long as generations go, and has released an entry priced unit and an enthusiast unit.
Yes, Q3 under performed relative to expectations, but it was also investors who pushed those expectations up, who believed that there was unslaked demand limited by the component shortage and European shipping problems. That this turned out to not be entirely true is a problem lots of other manufacturers are making.
In terms of software sales, saying that Nintendo
"only" has a big 3D Zelda is both underestimating Zelda and not factually accurate. I don't know what
Tears will do, but while Sequels tend to do less well on the same console, the install base is
much larger than it was in 2017. If it manages to keep pace with the previous game, it will outsell every Pokemon game released in 2021
combined.
I expect
Metroid Prime,
Kirby, Fire Emblem, and
Pikmin to all do numbers roughly in line with their predecessors, down a smidge for the usual reasons. In terms of units sold, that would make 2023 a
very good year for Nintendo, and an absolutely bonkers last year for a console. Yes, total software sales will be down, but only because so many Switch's have been sold, they've run out of people to sell
Mario Kart to.
Which is exactly what Furukawa was referring to when he said that no hardware strategy would be sufficient to drive up sales. Dropping a new Zelda potentially adds a new evergreen, which has a high attach rate.
Will investors be upset if leadership blows the transition? Yeah, 100%. Do I have total confidence that Nintendo is going to stick the landing?
Absolutely not. Is Nintendo currently failing to deliver value to investors? Nope! Is Nintendo behaving in a way that is unusual for them or for the industry? Absolutely not.
Do I think Nintendo is more responsive to investors than ever before, and in a way that is potentially harmful to long term prospects? Yes! But do I think that Saudi Arabia is going to push out the team overseeing the most successful moment the company has had in the 21st century just because a minority of fans are getting their More Powerful Toy Box six months later than they want it? No.