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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Not disagreeing with you but Japan also (annoyingly) uses Month/Day.
But do they also put the year after the day? Month/Day is ok if the year is omitted or if it is in frontof the month, like IT notation for sorting year/month/day

Edit: According to wikipedia they just use the year/month/day format which is as logical as day/month/year. Only month/day/year makes no sense
 
Doesn't have to be a physical game. Can just be a coupon to download a free Mario game out of the dozen or so available. And announcing anything Zelda on Mario Day is just weird.

I do get the concern about it being too much of a good deal when compared to OLED, which is the model they'd want to be focusing on. Another limited time thing perhaps. Maybe they'll bring back 3D All Stars as the bundled game lol who knows.
 
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Software bundles seem pretty inevitable this year. My guess is we get v2 bundles first, alongside a change in the packaging to match the size of the OLED box. Bundle in Mario Odyssey or 3D World as a download code and you've got a better value proposition without Nintendo having to cut into their margins. Then Switch Lite bundles in the summer, with a different game (Animal Crossing, perhaps). I actually think OLED might be the last to get software bundles, as it's already the best selling model, and it's selling to the least price-conscious audience.
 
Nintendo denials always needs to be taken with a graint of salt. We still can't square the reports of increased production and the clearly declining sales.
FY update later this year will be telling. Right now it's just a bunch of speculation and trying to fit a square peg into a round hole.
Not the same thing. You can't conflate Nintendo spokesperson responses which say certain reporting is inaccurate or untrue (and usually don't elaborate beyond that), with someone asking the president of the company about pricing strategy and him saying they're not going to change it.

When somebody asked last year whether they would raise prices, and he said they wouldn't, but would continue to evaluate the situation, that was a case where something was left open as a possibility in the future, but it was still an unambiguous answer (no) and not a "grain of salt" thing at all.
 
Not the same thing. You can't conflate Nintendo spokesperson responses which say certain reporting is inaccurate or untrue (and usually don't elaborate beyond that), with someone asking the president of the company about pricing strategy and him saying they're not going to change it.

When somebody asked last year whether they would raise prices, and he said they wouldn't, but would continue to evaluate the situation, that was a case where something was left open as a possibility in the future, but it was still an unambiguous answer (no) and not a "grain of salt" thing at all.
There's a lot more wiggle room with their recent state on prices. They can for example bundle an OLED with a game for the same price. Or retire v2 and replace the OLED at $300 as their main model.

Or keep all their current offering and release a new product offering at a lower price.

They can also adjust prices bases on USD to JPN exchange rates and pretend it's not a price cut but an exchange rate adjustment USD is trading very strongly against the yen in the past year.

We've also had Nintendo do promos like $50 gift cards with specific retailers in the past for the holiday rush. No reason they couldn't roll out programs like that more widely and over a longer period
 
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Anyone know what retailers actually pay for Switch units? I know margins aren't the best for retailers when it comes to videogames, but its not like Nintendo makes $350 for a Switch OLED. Now that Nintendo is no longer in a spot where they need to aggressively cultivate a large userbase to sell software and attract third parties, they may be apprehensive about a price drop if the increased sales would need to be significant to offset the lower margins per console sold. Would a price drop of $50 increase console sales by more than 20%? If not, they would make more money selling less units at the higher price.
 
Anyone know what retailers actually pay for Switch units? I know margins aren't the best for retailers when it comes to videogames, but its not like Nintendo makes $350 for a Switch OLED. Now that Nintendo is no longer in a spot where they need to aggressively cultivate a large userbase to sell software and attract third parties, they may be apprehensive about a price drop if the increased sales would need to be significant to offset the lower margins per console sold. Would a price drop of $50 increase console sales by more than 20%? If not, they would make more money selling less units at the higher price.
Sorry, don't have the info on that. I know someone made a post in here in the last couple of months if not weeks breaking down the costs (which I think included profit margins?) and reasonable conclusion that we may not necessarily see a price drop, but I'm having absolutely no luck finding it just yet. If someone else knows what I'm referring to could they quote that post?
 
So post direct and Q3 readout, I still do not see things improving in Q4 for Nintendo. They have nothing to hang their hat on software wise except maybe BOTW pre-orders or an uptick in voucher sales with folks using it for TOTK, but that’s not going to move the needle. I fully expect another slash on hardware forecasts. It’s wild to see the president advocating for potential price increases given their current situation.

At this rate, the current leadership are likely to be shaken up; they were handed an opportunity and are botching the momentum IMO. Ever since the switch was released, consumers have said it’s great, but we want more power. That’s literally been the mainstream tagline and remains the one ask for this device since release. If they’re seriously overthinking this and is a reason why they’re holding it back, then they desperately need a leadership overhaul.
 
So post direct and Q3 readout, I still do not see things improving in Q4 for Nintendo. They have nothing to hang their hat on software wise except maybe BOTW pre-orders or an uptick in voucher sales with folks using it for TOTK, but that’s not going to move the needle. I fully expect another slash on hardware forecasts. It’s wild to see the president advocating for potential price increases given their current situation.

At this rate, the current leadership are likely to be shaken up; they were handed an opportunity and are botching the momentum IMO. Ever since the switch was released, consumers have said it’s great, but we want more power. That’s literally been the mainstream tagline and remains the one ask for this device since release. If they’re seriously overthinking this and is a reason why they’re holding it back, then they desperately need a leadership overhaul.
It's a little ironic that you are accusing them of overthinking after typing all of this out. We don't know what is coming Q4 so to say they have nothing to hand their hat on is a bit presumptuous. Also, the President isn't really advocating for potential price increases unless I've missed a quote. He said to investors they aren't looking to change the prices of their hardware or software. And the Zelda price increase so far has been isolated to just that game.

A bit of an overreaction, imo, to say they need a leadership overhaul.
 
Ever since the switch was released, consumers have said it’s great, but we want more power. That’s literally been the mainstream tagline and remains the one ask for this device since release.

This sentiment comes from a vocal minority. There have been people complaining about the performance of the Switch dating back to even before it launched. If the performance was a big deal to the general consumer, the Switch would not have been able to sell over 120 million units. With that said, as Nintendo starts to hit the point of market saturation with the current Switch, many of those early Switch adopters will be anxious to upgrade, I know I am ready for Switch 2. Q4 is never/rarely a strong quarter for hardware sales, I think they need to sell 2-3 million units this quarter to hit their revised goal?

Metroid Prime Remastered has been an instant hit with fans since it stealth dropped earlier this month. Preorders for the physical release have been going very well. Fire Emblem Engage was charting well at launch and Kirby will do some decent numbers. Nintendo admits that maintaining its history of yearly sales for Switch will be very difficult. They are basically alluding to the idea that less Switch units will be sold this year without coming out and saying it.

I feel like some of us are actually rooting for Nintendo Switch sales to start to falter in a big enough way to force Nintendo to disclose details on the successor. The continued success of the Switch put Nintendo is a precarious spot, its a good position to be in for sure, but it would have been easy in 2020 or even 2021 to pump the brakes a bit on the plan to release a successor. Timing this is difficult, they want to maximize sales of the current platform without cutting its life short but also roll out the successor before the platform really bottoms out. Planning a new console to release just as your previous console is hitting the decline cant be easy, but historically that happens by year five or six so I would have to imagine we are getting close, and Switch 2 will release within 18 months.
 
So post direct and Q3 readout, I still do not see things improving in Q4 for Nintendo. They have nothing to hang their hat on software wise except maybe BOTW pre-orders or an uptick in voucher sales with folks using it for TOTK, but that’s not going to move the needle. I fully expect another slash on hardware forecasts. It’s wild to see the president advocating for potential price increases given their current situation.

At this rate, the current leadership are likely to be shaken up; they were handed an opportunity and are botching the momentum IMO. Ever since the switch was released, consumers have said it’s great, but we want more power. That’s literally been the mainstream tagline and remains the one ask for this device since release. If they’re seriously overthinking this and is a reason why they’re holding it back, then they desperately need a leadership overhaul.
to be fair the first available opportunity was sometime around now in terms of there being a suitable next-gen SOC to use for an upgraded Switch.

but absolutely they should have been reading to pounce all over this with new hardware given how popular the Switch has been. Momentum being the key factor, but in their own words of having systems be more like a platform there's no need to wait for a full next-gen slate of software. The Switch is popular enought that a next-gen refresh sells out regardless. Plenty of games that will be launching in the meanwhile that could of had an enhanced version that would more than please the hardcore. They could even of had a higher price for the first year as there's easily a big enough contingent who would fork out.

I still hope we see it within this FY as that falls within an acceptable delay from the original 2023-ish timeline. Milk it they may but later in 2024 or beyond is not a good look.
 
I feel like some of us are actually rooting for Nintendo Switch sales to start to falter in a big enough way to force Nintendo to disclose details on the successor.
That's stupid.

Nintendo will disclose details when they feel like it, much like how they just shadowdropped Metroid Prime Remastered with no initial fanfare...on a headline no less.

Heck, I wonder if it's even possible for Nintendo to shadow drop a new console release at this point...
 
Heck, I wonder if it's even possible for Nintendo to shadow drop a new console release at this point...
Probably not without leaks from the manufacturing side, especially with a large chunk of hardware leaks in general coming from the manufacturing side.
 
Probably not without leaks from the manufacturing side, especially with a large chunk of hardware leaks in general coming from the manufacturing side.
Hell, we've already had those! Bring on the shadow drop!

Angry mob noises.
 
Quoted by: SiG
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Software bundles seem pretty inevitable this year. My guess is we get v2 bundles first, alongside a change in the packaging to match the size of the OLED box. Bundle in Mario Odyssey or 3D World as a download code and you've got a better value proposition without Nintendo having to cut into their margins. Then Switch Lite bundles in the summer, with a different game (Animal Crossing, perhaps). I actually think OLED might be the last to get software bundles, as it's already the best selling model, and it's selling to the least price-conscious audience.
V2 already got a box change to the OLED box last year. The only difference is orientation. OLED Model boxes are verticle. V2 boxes have their art horizontal.
 
So post direct and Q3 readout, I still do not see things improving in Q4 for Nintendo. They have nothing to hang their hat on software wise except maybe BOTW pre-orders or an uptick in voucher sales with folks using it for TOTK, but that’s not going to move the needle. I fully expect another slash on hardware forecasts. It’s wild to see the president advocating for potential price increases given their current situation.

At this rate, the current leadership are likely to be shaken up; they were handed an opportunity and are botching the momentum IMO. Ever since the switch was released, consumers have said it’s great, but we want more power. That’s literally been the mainstream tagline and remains the one ask for this device since release. If they’re seriously overthinking this and is a reason why they’re holding it back, then they desperately need a leadership overhaul.

My sibling in Christ, it's way too early to use such strong language. The switch still sells well, the switch games still sell well, and more importantly, Nintendo still doesn't have any credible competitor. Switch 2 can wait, even against the will of Nintendo's most vocal nerds.

I'm getting the feeling that a lot of people, including here, have been fed for years a narrative by clout chasers, YouTubers and everything that gravitates in that strange galaxy of insiders, about the switch being some sort of iterative revolution, the iPhone of the console world, and that an upgrade was always imminent. It was first in 2019 with what ended up being Mariko, then in 2021 with what ended up being the OLED, then in 2022 and later "end of 2022 early 2023 it appeared to me in a dream", which ended up being a nothingburger.
At no point in the Switch life and certainly not in the last 2 years, did Nintendo said anything or did anything which indicated that a new, more powerful model was imminent. All we had was a very real hack informing us that yes, Nintendo is developing a new hardware 5+years after the initial release of the switch. It's nice to know that it'll be powerful, but the whole narrative about the release date being imminent because devkits or whatever was based on nothing confirmed, except the faith in people who have strong incentives in generating discussions and click.
And since nothing happens, it seems to generate, among a vocal minority, a strong feeling of frustration fueling takes about momentum, missed opportunity, incompetent management and so on.
It's unfortunate because it distracts from the real achievement that the Switch is for Nintendo, and how great it's been and still is for the vast majority of us. Well, that's my opinion at least.
 
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So post direct and Q3 readout, I still do not see things improving in Q4 for Nintendo. They have nothing to hang their hat on software wise except maybe BOTW pre-orders or an uptick in voucher sales with folks using it for TOTK, but that’s not going to move the needle. I fully expect another slash on hardware forecasts. It’s wild to see the president advocating for potential price increases given their current situation.

At this rate, the current leadership are likely to be shaken up; they were handed an opportunity and are botching the momentum IMO. Ever since the switch was released, consumers have said it’s great, but we want more power. That’s literally been the mainstream tagline and remains the one ask for this device since release. If they’re seriously overthinking this and is a reason why they’re holding it back, then they desperately need a leadership overhaul.
Investors are advocating for a price increase. They see inflation eating into margins, want those margins up and have seen Sony and Microsoft start leading the way, while the highest priced unit is the best swlling

Meanwhile, the Switch is selling better than just about any console in this stage of it's life, is still short of it's 6th birthday, which isn't uncommonly long as generations go, and has released an entry priced unit and an enthusiast unit.

Yes, Q3 under performed relative to expectations, but it was also investors who pushed those expectations up, who believed that there was unslaked demand limited by the component shortage and European shipping problems. That this turned out to not be entirely true is a problem lots of other manufacturers are making.

In terms of software sales, saying that Nintendo "only" has a big 3D Zelda is both underestimating Zelda and not factually accurate. I don't know what Tears will do, but while Sequels tend to do less well on the same console, the install base is much larger than it was in 2017. If it manages to keep pace with the previous game, it will outsell every Pokemon game released in 2021 combined.

I expect Metroid Prime, Kirby, Fire Emblem, and Pikmin to all do numbers roughly in line with their predecessors, down a smidge for the usual reasons. In terms of units sold, that would make 2023 a very good year for Nintendo, and an absolutely bonkers last year for a console. Yes, total software sales will be down, but only because so many Switch's have been sold, they've run out of people to sell Mario Kart to.

Which is exactly what Furukawa was referring to when he said that no hardware strategy would be sufficient to drive up sales. Dropping a new Zelda potentially adds a new evergreen, which has a high attach rate.

Will investors be upset if leadership blows the transition? Yeah, 100%. Do I have total confidence that Nintendo is going to stick the landing? Absolutely not. Is Nintendo currently failing to deliver value to investors? Nope! Is Nintendo behaving in a way that is unusual for them or for the industry? Absolutely not.

Do I think Nintendo is more responsive to investors than ever before, and in a way that is potentially harmful to long term prospects? Yes! But do I think that Saudi Arabia is going to push out the team overseeing the most successful moment the company has had in the 21st century just because a minority of fans are getting their More Powerful Toy Box six months later than they want it? No.
 
It's probably already been said somewhere but what happened to that t236 chip that people were saying was looking like it was going to be in production or something for a device this year? Did that turn out to be something else or is it still likely for the future switch and just not as far along as people thought?
 
It's probably already been said somewhere but what happened to that t236 chip that people were saying was looking like it was going to be in production or something for a device this year? Did that turn out to be something else or is it still likely for the future switch and just not as far along as people thought?
T239, still likely for a future Nintendo console, seems to have started manufacturing - or at least completed all pre-manufacturing verification - by fall of last year.
 
Nintendo has developed this incredible reputation for creating these experiences that families can have together, but also really being on the cutting edge of technology and the idea that the two can come together to create something new and something memorable. And so I'm curious if both of you have a particular new kind of creative experience or technology that you have your eyes set on what the future might look like or any other places we might see Mario and his friends pop up in.

Takahashi:
I really don't consider us a cutting-edge company. That's something for tech people, for programmers and whatnot to aspire to. We as a company want to take technology available to us and implement it in games in a way that is easy to use and easy to understand.

They'll be using Drake whether it's 2024 or 2025
 
Not a stupid question, but no. "Motion vectors" means "knowing what direction object on screen are going" - basically any engine is going to support motion vectors for anything that isn't a particle.
I thought that was one of the major requirements needed to support DLSS2/FSR2/similar, and lack of it was why support continues to be far from 100%?
America uses Month-Day-Year, the absolute worst system.
Day-Year-Month would beat it, I think.
 
I thought that was one of the major requirements needed to support DLSS2/FSR2/similar, and lack of it was why support continues to be far from 100%?
it's needed yes, but having it doesn't guarantee DLSS. I wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo continues to forgo any sort of AA. but Xenoblade 3 already has motion vectors for it's TAA, so Monolith might use it for some kind of upscaling
 
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They'll be using Drake whether it's 2024 or 2025
I don't understand why you all try to use every random scrap of (non-)information as evidence for anything to do with hardware. Sometimes there just isn't anything new to talk about. Like right now! People can, and have, come up with their own interesting things to discuss here, but there is absolutely nothing relevant coming out of Nintendo right now, including this total non-sequitur of a quote from an interview on the subject of theme parks.
 
I thought that was one of the major requirements needed to support DLSS2/FSR2/similar, and lack of it was why support continues to be far from 100%?
Some engines don't expose motion vectors, or have them entangled in physics calculations.
 
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They'll be using Drake whether it's 2024 or 2025

As long as it's a generational leap over the existing Switch, that's fine.

All their portable machines frankly have all been generational jumps forward

GB/C to GBA to DS to 3DS to Switch are actually all fairly large jumps forward.
 
on 4N, I'd expect the CPU to hit 2GHz at most rather than 1.78GHz. GPU would stay the same methinks
With CPU i think same 2GHZ, GPU i hope we will hit 4teraflops not sure about clocks, 1ghz will be great i think, surely the 4N will give a lot more benefits, on 8nm samsung clocks would be the same as in switch 1
 
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With CPU i think same 2GHZ, GPU i hope we will hit 4teraflops not sure about clocks, 1ghz will be great i think, surely the 4N will give a lot more benefits, on 8nm samsung clocks would be the same as in switch 1
Nintendo likes to prioritize battery, so bumping the CPU only sounds like something they'd do, as it reduces one of the main bottlenecks
 
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here we have power cosumption but for 8nm samsung, we dont know how it looks for 4N

The analysis that generated these numbers turned out to be a little flawed. Better numbers here

on 4N, I'd expect the CPU to hit 2GHz at most rather than 1.78GHz. GPU would stay the same methinks
Yeah, I was just thinking of GPU clocks. It's a 6x bump in terms of GPU cores, but only a 2x bump in CPU cores.
 
This is quite literally impossible considering there is no official hardware forecast past next month.
In early May, they will have an investors meetings to close the fiscal year ending March 2023.
They'll also forecast fiscal tear 2024 (pun intended), then they'll revise it every quarter.

IMO, 15M+ hardware sales forecast would be bullish.
They lost 6M sales each year for the past 2 years.
That would put hardware sales at 12M for next year, but the bell curve suggests the loss would increase.
 
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Yea, with regard to GPU clocks, node isn't our first constraint here. It's memory bandwith. That needs to be higher (ie LPDDR5X instead of regular LPDDR5) before further cranking up the GPU is really meaningful.

Since we're in a bit of a lull...
The monkeys-with-typewriters in my head are working on potential tech demo ideas thanks to the software speculation thread, but it is leading up to a question probably more suited for this thread.

Idea: basically it's Alleyway/Breakout, but...
1. Instead of the camera being orthogonal to the playing field, it's now parallel to the field; probably behind the ship/paddle.
2. Turn off the lights. This plus the previous thing eliminates player omniscience.
3. Add a secondary camera; attach that to the ball or have it floating by it. Then either make the ball the light source and/or designate some objects spread throughout the stage as lights that turn on when struck.
That second camera's feed goes in a picture-in-picture window or split screen? And/or a toggle between the two feeds? (ok, a second screen would be useful for this sort of idea...)

It's mainly a lighting demo, but I am wondering, what am I really asking for, technically? Be it hardware and/or top level programming strategy.
 
Yea, with regard to GPU clocks, node isn't our first constraint here. It's memory bandwith. That needs to be higher (ie LPDDR5X instead of regular LPDDR5) before further cranking up the GPU is really meaningful.

Since we're in a bit of a lull...
The monkeys-with-typewriters in my head are working on potential tech demo ideas thanks to the software speculation thread, but it is leading up to a question probably more suited for this thread.

Idea: basically it's Alleyway/Breakout, but...
1. Instead of the camera being orthogonal to the playing field, it's now parallel to the field; probably behind the ship/paddle.
2. Turn off the lights. This plus the previous thing eliminates player omniscience.
3. Add a secondary camera; attach that to the ball or have it floating by it. Then either make the ball the light source and/or designate some objects spread throughout the stage as lights that turn on when struck.
That second camera's feed goes in a picture-in-picture window or split screen? And/or a toggle between the two feeds? (ok, a second screen would be useful for this sort of idea...)

It's mainly a lighting demo, but I am wondering, what am I really asking for, technically? Be it hardware and/or top level programming strategy.
sounds pretty doable in UE with blueprints to be honest. the biggest ask is rendering two viewpoints. you'll need headroom for that, but might not be unreasonable. Lumen would make the emissives pop as well
 
I see the 4N discussion happening, is there any reason to think Drake might go with 4N over TSMC’s regular 5nm? How much is 4N improved over their regular 5nm and is it more expensive?
 
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It's mainly that 4N is the variant that Nvidia's using (as seen with the Ada cards) instead of regular N5. But since it's Nvidia specific instead of the more generally available variants, we don't have details on where it stands in relation to N5/N5P/N4/N4P/N4X.
 
It's mainly that 4N is the variant that Nvidia's using (as seen with the Ada cards) instead of regular N5. But since it's Nvidia specific instead of the more generally available variants, we don't have details on where it stands in relation to N5/N5P/N4/N4P/N4X.
It being more specialized makes me think it’d be more expensive, which might not be worth it for Nintendo.
 
It being more specialized makes me think it’d be more expensive, which might not be worth it for Nintendo.
It's specialized in that 4N is designed for Nvidia products. All nodes are customized like this. The fact Nvidia uses it for many products is what reduces the cost to Nintendo
 
But do they also put the year after the day? Month/Day is ok if the year is omitted or if it is in frontof the month, like IT notation for sorting year/month/day

Edit: According to wikipedia they just use the year/month/day format which is as logical as day/month/year. Only month/day/year makes no sense
It isn't so much about asking "what day is it today?" as much as making plans ... the party is on june 10th ... or Zelda comes out may 12th

It comes out 05-12-2023-

the thing that is weird to me about the other way is for stuff like that it's like I have to reverse engineer the date... it comes out 12-05-2023
When? 12. ... twelve of what? this month next month? May... --- may in this case is a more important time indicator ... gives a general timeframe and then narrows in to the specifics afterward.

its like whenever I ask someone the time and they say 20 past the hour...
"20 past WHAT hour man I haven't looked at a clock for HOURS"

Anyway that's how this american sees it...:LOL::LOL:
 
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There’s a lot of talk about CPU and GPU clocks but even if the clocks are lower than what we wish for (ex: 2ghz cpu), could a boost mode (like the current Switch has) at least help with loading times? Do you all think Nintendo will do something similar with Drake? That’s one of the only things that can be changed, post-launch.
 
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I'd be pretty happy with 1.4 TF undocked, 3 TF docked to be honest.

That's a massive upgrade over the current Switch, especially if DLSS is added on top of that.
The analysis that generated these numbers turned out to be a little flawed. Better numbers here


Yeah, I was just thinking of GPU clocks. It's a 6x bump in terms of GPU cores, but only a 2x bump in CPU cores.
If 8nm actually was that efficient, I don't think anyone would be worried. But as you see, they're quite a bit higher.
 
Please read this staff post before posting.

Furthermore, according to this follow-up post, all off-topic chat will be moderated.
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