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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

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It will be another V2 bundle for the movie similar to the Black Friday Mario Kart Bundle to clear out the remaining V2 models.

Interesting thing, bought a new OLED version. It‘s Joy Con were on Firmware 4.20, my other Joy Con are on 4.19 and there‘s no update available.
 
Concernt said:
I agree. I think the most likely hardware strategy over the next 12 months is:

Price drop for OLED Model to 299.99,
Price drop for V2 to 249.99
Phase out V2 as they sell through without making more, clear production lines for the new device.

By time the Drake model launches for 399.99, there's no more V2, plenty of production capacity, and a nice, simple pricing structure:

199.99 for the entry level model with no TV mode.
299.99 for the middle of the road, wants TV Mode but not 4K
399.99 for the full blown next gen model, 4K, exclusives and all. Maybe with some cloud ports for the other models.
Click to expand...

199 is for the lite model, I still don’t see a TV only version. Would make sense with more TV apps, but why lock a cheap Switch to a TV, which naturally restricts playtime.
 
Cybergatuno said:


Price drop incoming?
Click to expand...

Does that street date have any significance? If this is a price drop of the OLED model then this makes it particularly interesting, because by that time if Switch 2 comes late2023/early2024, it could either already been released or announced by that time.

Edit: I'm reading the date in french as 3rd October 2023😅. I'm confused how to read it.😅
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
No one is doing anything serious with regards to raytracing before 2028 other than NVIDIA.

Consoles are garbage at it and the devs with the technical skill to do raytracing mostly don't care at all about optimizing for or focusing on PC.
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Coincidentally one of the best RT games has recently reiterated about going all in on RT, even on consoles. Metro Exodus also runs very well on PC. There's probably something about probe-based GI (and similar methods like lumen) that sidesteps some of the issues that non-RTGI games have
 
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I wouldn’t have expected any price drops for OLED ahead of Zelda’s launch. A V2 bundle makes sense, and will help clear out stock if they do intend to remove it from the hardware lineup.
 
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Cybergatuno said:


Price drop incoming?
Click to expand...

Furukawa said literally last week they aren't planning to cut prices. While I often stress that investor Q&As aren't a source of info about unannounced plans, it's another matter if something specific is outright denied. In this case, Furukawa said their strategy has been to maintain the price of their software and hardware, and that he doesn't think their strategy needs to be changed "at this point." That's not something he's going to say if the OLED was dropping to $300 within a month.

Others have already given alternative explanations (if we can even trust the price in GameStop's system, or the release date).
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
No one is doing anything serious with regards to raytracing before 2028 other than NVIDIA.

Consoles are garbage at it and the devs with the technical skill to do raytracing mostly don't care at all about optimizing for or focusing on PC.
Click to expand...
I think RT is going to rapidly get standardized, it’s just not going to have every game be a RT showcase. It’s hardware that is in the last two generations of desktop cards, and as the cross gen period ends (and Drake launches) in every supported console. FSR 2 is maturing and hitting consoles as well, all the pieces are in place
 
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KMStwo said:
Does that street date have any significance? If this is a price drop of the OLED model then this makes it particularly interesting, because by that time if Switch 2 comes late2023/early2024, it could either already been released or announced by that time.

Edit: I'm reading the date in french as 3rd October 2023😅. I'm confused how to read it.😅
Click to expand...
Previous threads about this GameStop SKU mentioned the date was when pre-orders would open.
 
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Stupid question, could it be obvious (via data mining) for any coming Switch titles that they are designed to support the motion vectors needed by DLSS in anticipation of future updates?
 
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I've had the Switch OLED for a day now, and while the screen is perfect, it does make the low resolution on more intensive games stick out, and it only leaves me wondering what the Switch 2 will be like whenever it releases.
 
Foltzie said:
Stupid question, could it be obvious (via data mining) for any coming Switch titles that they are designed to support the motion vectors needed by DLSS in anticipation of future updates?
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Not a stupid question, but no. "Motion vectors" means "knowing what direction object on screen are going" - basically any engine is going to support motion vectors for anything that isn't a particle.
 
YugamiSekai said:
I've had the Switch OLED for a day now, and while the screen is perfect, it does make the low resolution on more intensive games stick out, and it only leaves me wondering what the Switch 2 will be like whenever it releases.
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If you play games that are native 720p on your OLED, they will look very clean and sharp, especially for games that are native 720p with proper anti aliasing. You can get a pretty good idea of what to expect for Switch 2 in portable mode by observing Steam Deck. On a 7" screen, 720p still looks fine. Especially a 7" OLED screen, and I really hope Nintendo goes with an OLED screen right from the start with Switch 2. They can always release a cheaper Switch 2 Lite model with a standard LCD screen later on.
 
Goodtwin said:
If you play games that are native 720p on your OLED, they will look very clean and sharp, especially for games that are native 720p with proper anti aliasing. You can get a pretty good idea of what to expect for Switch 2 in portable mode by observing Steam Deck. On a 7" screen, 720p still looks fine. Especially a 7" OLED screen, and I really hope Nintendo goes with an OLED screen right from the start with Switch 2. They can always release a cheaper Switch 2 Lite model with a standard LCD screen later on.
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Of course, Mario Kart looks wonderful on it. For Dragon Ball Xenoverse 2 on the other hand, Switch 2 can't come fast enough.
 
LiC said:
Furukawa said literally last week they aren't planning to cut prices. While I often stress that investor Q&As aren't a source of info about unannounced plans, it's another matter if something specific is outright denied. In this case, Furukawa said their strategy has been to maintain the price of their software and hardware, and that he doesn't think their strategy needs to be changed "at this point." That's not something he's going to say if the OLED was dropping to $300 within a month.

Others have already given alternative explanations (if we can even trust the price in GameStop's system, or the release date).
Click to expand...
Technically if it's a Special Edition SKU it doesn't represent a price cut.
 
I don't think a price cut will ever happen, not when Nintendo denied it more than once pretty firmly; production costs actually increased in the past 2 years and Furukawa mentioned they are monitoring if a price increase is needed.
 
Joseki said:
I don't think a price cut will ever happen, not when Nintendo denied it more than once pretty firmly; production costs actually increased in the past 2 years and Furukawa mentioned they are monitoring if a price increase is needed.
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We're talking about 6 years old hardware (and an SoC that is 8). There are phones with better specs and good profit margins selling for half the price.

It would make sense to make a final push for adoption with price cuts, right before marketing for the Mario Movie, and a few months before rolling next gen.
I don't think they'll do it because, as others pointed out, it was outright denied.
But raising prices now would be insane for something that is on a steep decline and that they could, IMO, sell for half the price and still make a profit.
 
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Nintendo denials always needs to be taken with a graint of salt. We still can't square the reports of increased production and the clearly declining sales.
FY update later this year will be telling. Right now it's just a bunch of speculation and trying to fit a square peg into a round hole.
 
The closest thing you'll get to a price cut is Nintendo bringing back the voucher program for NA. They'll do anything they can to avoid devaluing their hardware and software, especially with a more expensive successor around the corner.
 
Foltzie said:
Stupid question, could it be obvious (via data mining) for any coming Switch titles that they are designed to support the motion vectors needed by DLSS in anticipation of future updates?
Click to expand...
Motion vectors don't tell you anything other than the direction of an object in motion. It's good for any kind of temporal effect, not just dlss
 
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Recently there was some chatter (I can't recall who brought it up) about DLSS adding OTA updates and what that means. There has been some mentions in the press, but having just checked the programming guide, the general assumptions seem to be incorrect.

Nvidia is not offering a way to update the DLSS DLL over the air. If a developer wants to use a more recent version of DLSS, they need to ship it via their own software update mechanism. What Nvidia is offering is updated settings.

DLSS 2.5 added something called presets which fine tune the DLSS 2s behavior. These alter model weights in undocumented ways for specific uses. There are 5 of these
  • Preset A: Was the Default in DLSS 2.1. Overcompensates for ghosting effects from missing motion vectors, but useful in engines where DLSS integration might be bad for technical reasons
  • Preset B: The original Ultra Performance preset from DLSS 2.1.
  • Preset C: Uses the most current frame info more aggressively, in games where the image changes rapidly. Not usable with Ultra-Performance
  • Preset D: The default, current model weights. Tends to preserve image stability better than C, not usable with Ultra-Performance
  • Preset F: The new, default Ultra-performance and DLAA weights
If the programmer doesn't specify one of these presets, they will get either D or F chosen for them. If they opt into OTA updates, the behavior of D or F may change in the future, or a different (new) preset may be chosen for them.

This allows Nvidia to rapidly update DLSS behavior without having putting a remote code exploit into every game. Games with integration troubles, worst-case behavior for DLSS, or who simply don't trust Nvidia not to break anything, can explicitly set these presets themselves and Nvidia won't update model weights behind their back.

This is interesting because it's been pretty clear that DLSS version would get bundled with the SDK, and linked to the final application build, and thus Nintendo wouldn't be able to improve DLSS behavior in already launched games, unless those games rolled out updates themselves. This implies a simple mechanism whereby games could opt into letting Nvidia/Nintendo "fine tune" DLSS for them over time, without any intervention from the developer themselves.
 
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Trying to deal with future Nintendo BC talk on the webz always leads me crawling back to my safe place here. 😮‍💨
 
Intoxicate said:
199 is for the lite model, I still don’t see a TV only version. Would make sense with more TV apps, but why lock a cheap Switch to a TV, which naturally restricts playtime.
Click to expand...
If a TV only model comes out, I expect it to come out AFTER the Drake model. I was talking about Lite in my earlier post.
 
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Bonejack said:
You're aware that the guy who was the director of the Capcom developed GB/GBA Zelda games is now working at Nintendo and is actually the director of Skyward Sword, BotW and TotK, yes? ;D
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I uhh yeah sure of course I knew that.

Let him put together a rag tag team of new Capcom people!
 
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Concernt said:
I agree. I think the most likely hardware strategy over the next 12 months is:

Price drop for OLED Model to 299.99,
Price drop for V2 to 249.99
Phase out V2 as they sell through without making more, clear production lines for the new device.

By time the Drake model launches for 399.99, there's no more V2, plenty of production capacity, and a nice, simple pricing structure:

199.99 for the entry level model with no TV mode.
299.99 for the middle of the road, wants TV Mode but not 4K
399.99 for the full blown next gen model, 4K, exclusives and all. Maybe with some cloud ports for the other models.
Click to expand...
I can see v2 continue to be priced at $300, but bundled with a 1st party game, before it gets phased out by OLED..
 
Dekuman said:
Nintendo denials always needs to be taken with a graint of salt. We still can't square the reports of increased production and the clearly declining sales.
FY update later this year will be telling. Right now it's just a bunch of speculation and trying to fit a square peg into a round hole.
Click to expand...

Simple, the reports are wrong as they have been many times in the past. In the last Q&A Furukawa talks of hardware sales difficult to keep at the current level for the next FY so they expect decline, not increase in sales.

When Nintendo denies something, that denial is true.
When Nintendo avoids commenting on something, then maybe there is something going on.

Realistically with all that has been said and forecasted by Nintendo no price cut on the current model is happening and the new hardware is coming in the last few months of the FY at the earliest.
 
ShadowFox08 said:
I can see v2 continue to be priced at $300, but bundled with a 1st party game, before it gets phased out by OLED..
Click to expand...
I can't see that happening since it would devalue the OLED Model and Lite significantly, and since they use substantial redesigned and simplified components compared to the V2, I think they want those to sell as good as they can, or at least keep the price making sense.

Plus, wouldn't such a SKU actually be multiple SKUs, one for each game offered?
 
Joseki said:
Simple, the reports are wrong as they have been many times in the past. In the last Q&A Furukawa talks of hardware sales difficult to keep at the current level for the next FY so they expect decline, not increase in sales.

When Nintendo denies something, that denial is true.
When Nintendo avoids commenting on something, then maybe there is something going on.

Realistically with all that has been said and forecasted by Nintendo no price cut on the current model is happening and the new hardware is coming in the last few months of the FY at the earliest.
Click to expand...
That denial is not necessarily true. They lie all the time. They denied the DS Lite and 3DS XL like a week before they announced them.
 
Joseki said:
Simple, the reports are wrong as they have been many times in the past. In the last Q&A Furukawa talks of hardware sales difficult to keep at the current level for the next FY so they expect decline, not increase in sales.

When Nintendo denies something, that denial is true.
When Nintendo avoids commenting on something, then maybe there is something going on.

Realistically with all that has been said and forecasted by Nintendo no price cut on the current model is happening and the new hardware is coming in the last few months of the FY at the earliest.
Click to expand...
Yes that is a possibility, but at this time, even Nintendo themselves hasn't given us this datapoint. They have only indicated then intend to keep selling Switches going forward.
 
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Skittzo said:
Their de facto Mario game is still MK8D. It'll probably be that, if it even has a pack-in.
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the movie borrowed a lot from 3D World, and I think a platformer would be more appropriate anyway

regardless, I 100% believe in a final Mario V2 to clear out the stock for discontinuation
 
Raccoon said:
I'n telling you, it's a special Mario V2 for Mar10 ahead of the movie

might have 3D World as a pack-in, value be damned
Click to expand...

Would be very strange if they were doing a special Mario OLED version for a, being honest here, funny internet day.
Which, on top, also only "works" in the USA because everyone else uses Day/Month instead of Month/Day.

Plus, while the NoA Twitter account always has a tweet about this, it's mostly about currently available Mario games.

It's the Zelda OLED, let's all agree to that. Question now is only ... is it a Twitter announcement or do they have a TotK Direct prepared that features it? ;D
 
Bonejack said:
Would be very strange if they were doing a special Mario OLED version for a, being honest here, funny internet day.
Which, on top, also only "works" in the USA because everyone else uses Day/Month instead of Month/Day.

Plus, while the NoA Twitter account always has a tweet about this, it's mostly about currently available Mario games.

It's the Zelda OLED, let's all agree to that. Question now is only ... is it a Twitter announcement or do they have a TotK Direct prepared that features it? ;D
Click to expand...
Between this and May the 4th Be With You I think our system comes out ahead
 
Bonejack said:
Would be very strange if they were doing a special Mario OLED version for a, being honest here, funny internet day.
Which, on top, also only "works" in the USA because everyone else uses Day/Month instead of Month/Day.

Plus, while the NoA Twitter account always has a tweet about this, it's mostly about currently available Mario games.

It's the Zelda OLED, let's all agree to that. Question now is only ... is it a Twitter announcement or do they have a TotK Direct prepared that features it? ;D
Click to expand...
1) I said V2, not OLED
2) it's too early for the Zelda one unless that streetdate is just for preorders
 
Bonejack said:
Would be very strange if they were doing a special Mario OLED version for a, being honest here, funny internet day.
Which, on top, also only "works" in the USA because everyone else uses Day/Month instead of Month/Day.

Plus, while the NoA Twitter account always has a tweet about this, it's mostly about currently available Mario games.

It's the Zelda OLED, let's all agree to that. Question now is only ... is it a Twitter announcement or do they have a TotK Direct prepared that features it? ;D
Click to expand...
Not disagreeing with you but Japan also (annoyingly) uses Month/Day.
 
kvetcha said:
Between this and May the 4th Be With You I think our system comes out ahead
Click to expand...

You should've used Revenge of the 5th as an example and i would've been with you. ;]

Raccoon said:
1) I said V2, not OLED
2) it's too early for the Zelda one unless that streetdate is just for preorders
Click to expand...

Well, in the context of a TotK Direct, it definitely could be a preorder opening. Directs have more attention than Twitter drops, i'd think.

Armoured_Bear said:
Not disagreeing with you but Japan also (annoyingly) uses Month/Day.
Click to expand...

They do? Damn, my bad then. Legit forgot/didn't know.
 
Armoured_Bear said:
Not disagreeing with you but Japan also (annoyingly) uses Month/Day.
Click to expand...
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