StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

[Coco98bisFR]

looking around, it seems you'd be comparing a 7870 and an RX 470/480. of course, I can't really find any sort of proper comparison. or at least, not one I'm willing to put that much time into


still around Xbox One, which is the same if it was released next year. maybe closer to PS4 if they got a node shrink

Thanks for the quick answer, I don't know what is a "node shrink" but I would love a Switch 2 as powerful as a PS4, it could offer so much possibilities for the developer in terms of technologies and rendering.

I think in the absolute worst case scenario, the DLSS model* in TV mode would be roughly on par with the Xbox One S, but without DLSS enabled; and in the absolute best case scenario, the DLSS model* in TV mode would be relatively close to the Xbox Series S, but with DLSS enabled.

Thanks ! I'de love to see Nintendo franchises on such powerful consoles, it would be amazing to see 3D Mario and Zelda in 4k and I do hope it will be the next generation. Just one question, as I said I don't know much about the topic but couldn't Nintendo get the DLSS2.0 instead of the 1.0 ? And if not, why ?

 

[Dakhil]

Just one question, as I said I don't know much about the topic but couldn't Nintendo get the DLSS2.0 instead of the 1.0 ? And if not, why ?

People have been speculating that the DLSS model* will use DLSS 2.0.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Just one question, as I said I don't know much about the topic but couldn't Nintendo get the DLSS2.0 instead of the 1.0 ? And if not, why ?

you can't get 1.0 anymore. it's dead and buried. you can't even "but nintendo" that, Nvidia won't let anyone use it.

 

[Coco98bisFR]

People have been speculating that the DLSS model* will use DLSS 2.0.

Ok, thanks, but why do you put a "*" at the end of the "model" ?

you can't get 1.0 anymore. it's dead and buried. you can't even "but nintendo" that, Nvidia won't let anyone use it.

What a good news, thanks ! So if Nintendo wants the DLSS, it will be the 2.0 or nothing, good !

 

[Dakhil]

Ok, thanks, but why do you put a "*" at the end of the "model" ?

I explain the reason in the OP.

 

[Coco98bisFR]

I explain the reason in the OP.

Thanks, I understand.

 

[ILikeFeet]

What a good news, thanks ! So if Nintendo wants the DLSS, it will be the 2.0 or nothing, good !

DLSS will be an option, but I think Nintendo is fielding their own in-house solution, made by NERD

 

[Dakhil]

I don't know what is a "node shrink" but I would love a Switch 2 as powerful as a PS4, it could offer so much possibilities for the developer in terms of technologies and rendering.

A "node shrink" is basically going from one process node to a more advanced process node for fabricating chips. As an example, Nintendo and Nvidia would go from a 8 nm** process node rumoured to be used to fabricate the DLSS model*'s SoC (codenamed Dane) to a 7 nm** or 6 nm** process node.

 

[Coco98bisFR]

Ok, both thanks for your informations !

 

[davec00ke]

I think it's a mistake to think DLSS is guaranteed

 

[ILikeFeet]

I think it's a mistake to think DLSS is guaranteed

I mean, it's all rumor until it's confirmed

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Right, but I got a little confused when he said ps4 gcn isn't comparable to Polaris PS4 pro. Was wondering the efficiency rate and any new tools it has over regular ps4.. only thing I know is, is that Polaris on pro has mixed precision mode, which og PS4 doesn't have.

Considering what it is, it had to play the same PS4 games and likely went with a custom route. So while it has rapid packed math, it didn’t really employ it to be that much more performant than the GCN uArch in the PS4. It probably utilized it not that much in games built for the PS4 beforehand, half of the cores were used for Checkerboard rendering. It’s why you needed a patch to make use of it.


But let’s try anyway, according to the techpowerup database (which I find dubious), the 470 which is the closest to the PS4 Pro GPU is 75% more performant than the 7870 GHz edition. Again, according to them.

The 7870 used here is a ~2.5TFLOP card that has a 256-bit bus and a bandwidth of 153GB/s. Has 1280 shader units. (Lacks FP16 support, but PS4 has FP16 support)

The 470 here is a ~4.9TFLOP card that has a 256-bit bus and a bandwidth of 211GB/s. Has 2048 shader units. (Has FP16 support)


The comparison is ultimately difficult, as the PS4 GPU isn’t even like the 7870 really, and borrows some features from later uArch like having that FP16 support at equal rate to the FP32 calculations.

Just not at the same time probably. Maybe compare the 470 with the 1050 and you get a loose comparison.

I need to stress the emphasis on loose. Otherwise the jump from PS4 to PS4 pro is just 1080 to 1440(at times) and half the cores used for checkerboarding because it can’t handle it due to lack of sufficient resources, so it restructures it to a higher res perceived image.

 

[ShadowFox08]

MX550 popping up. 15% more power than MX450 from bench mark, and it's ampere.. Not known if it will support DLSS or ray tracing (has 2GB VRAM), but will be interesting to see how it performs GPU wise against switch 2.

NVIDIA GeForce MX550 pops up in Geekbench: Ampere GA107 part with 2GB of VRAM and 2048 CUDA cores bests the MX450 by 15 percent

According to a report by ITHome, Lenovo and other laptop makers could be prepping entry-level notebooks equipped with the GeForce MX550. The MX550 will reportedly be the first Ampere card with just 2GB of VRAM, and will feature 2048 CUDA cores.

www.notebookcheck.net

MX 450 is a 25watt card at 1.8 TFLOPs.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

MX550 popping up. 15% more power than MX450 from bench mark, and it's ampere.. Not known if it will support DLSS or ray tracing (has 2GB VRAM), but will be interesting to see how it performs GPU wise against switch 2.

NVIDIA GeForce MX550 pops up in Geekbench: Ampere GA107 part with 2GB of VRAM and 2048 CUDA cores bests the MX450 by 15 percent

According to a report by ITHome, Lenovo and other laptop makers could be prepping entry-level notebooks equipped with the GeForce MX550. The MX550 will reportedly be the first Ampere card with just 2GB of VRAM, and will feature 2048 CUDA cores.

www.notebookcheck.net

MX 450 is a 25watt card at 1.8 TFLOPs.

MX550 is apparently a ~6.1TFLOP card.

Based on what it says if 1.5GGHz clock speed GPU and 2048 cores.

Convenient that it’s the same as ORIN

 

[ILikeFeet]

MX550 popping up. 15% more power than MX450 from bench mark, and it's ampere.. Not known if it will support DLSS or ray tracing (has 2GB VRAM), but will be interesting to see how it performs GPU wise against switch 2.

NVIDIA GeForce MX550 pops up in Geekbench: Ampere GA107 part with 2GB of VRAM and 2048 CUDA cores bests the MX450 by 15 percent

According to a report by ITHome, Lenovo and other laptop makers could be prepping entry-level notebooks equipped with the GeForce MX550. The MX550 will reportedly be the first Ampere card with just 2GB of VRAM, and will feature 2048 CUDA cores.

www.notebookcheck.net

MX 450 is a 25watt card at 1.8 TFLOPs.

don't see why it wouldn't support DLSS. this is the best use case for it

 

[ShadowFox08]

MX550 is apparently a ~6.1TFLOP card.

Based on what it says if 1.5GGHz clock speed GPU and 2048 cores.

Convenient that it’s the same as ORIN

Where did you hear that it was 6 TFLOPs? You sure that's not FP16?

MX450 25 watt version is 1.8 tflops while the 30.5w version goes up to 2.8 TFLOPs in fp32 (5.6 in fp16 mode) apparently.

NVIDIA GeForce MX450 30.5W 8Gbps Specs

NVIDIA TU117S, 1575 MHz, 896 Cores, 56 TMUs, 32 ROPs, 2048 MB GDDR5, 2000 MHz, 64 bit

www.techpowerup.com

Die size for the 30.5 mx450 is 200mm2 as well.

 

[Deleted member 887]

I think it's a mistake to think DLSS is guaranteed

It seems highly unlikely that Nvidia would produce a gaming oriented chip without tensor cores, though perhaps instead of DLSS as it currently exists, I can easily imagine a custom variant targeted at power consumption

 

[Kevin]

I pop into this thread once every month or so. Use to follow it more back in the day but it's been years now of the same Nvidia tech discussion loop and from a sort of outside perspective, year after year, the conversation here has been almost exactly the same. Nintendo will eventually release new hardware of course but I feel like we really have nothing to go off of after years of speculation, rumors and constant loops. What do we know exactly? Nvidia has a new chip that's been in development for years and is taking it's sweet old time and that it's likely Nintendo will use some version of this chip we don't know a whole lot about in a new Nintendo system. Does that cover mostly everything? Seems like the speculation is that the next Switch will be between an Xbox One S and an Xbox Series S? That's a massive gap in the guessing game. What that reads to me is that we really have no idea what Nintendo is doing after what feels like 3+ years of speculation on this thing.

I do want to personally thank Dakhil, Nate and others for their contributions. It's no ones fault that we don't have much information to chew on. Watching The Game Awards this year really made me realize how badly I want to Nintendo hardware. Especially since I own and game on a 4K OLED tv. I have a PS5 and XSX but man I'm constantly watching these next gen reveals thinking how badly I would love to see Nintendo with better visuals. Switch just feels so dated anymore. Two whole generations behind now and growing more dated by the day. A year or two from now, who knows what we will be playing our PS5/XSX consoles and it's just making it really hard to play games on Switch in 720p/20fps like I did with Monster Hunter Stories 2. Rough doesn't even begin to describe this.

I love Nintendo games, always been my favorite game company and ever since the N64 days I dreamed about seeing Mario and other staple franchises match that of CG movies and beyond. PS5/XSX are getting there now but we might be waiting 20+ years for Nintendo to catch up. Still a faster 4K Switch would definitely at least make their currently visuals look a lot more palatable.

Anyways for everyone's sanity, let's hope that this time next year we are actually discussing and seeing some new awesome Nintendo hardware and 4K games and not just discussing potential Nvidia teraflops, memory, theoretical performance and feature sets. Give me that 4K Zelda BOTW 2, Super Mario Odyssey 2 and Metroid Prime 4. It's time to feast!

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Where did you hear that it was 6 TFLOPs? You sure that's not FP16?

MX450 25 watt version is 1.8 tflops while the 30.5w version goes up to 2.8 TFLOPs in fp32 (5.6 in fp16 mode) apparently.

NVIDIA GeForce MX450 30.5W 8Gbps Specs

NVIDIA TU117S, 1575 MHz, 896 Cores, 56 TMUs, 32 ROPs, 2048 MB GDDR5, 2000 MHz, 64 bit

www.techpowerup.com

Die size for the 30.5 mx450 is 200mm2 as well.

From the source in the link you provided in the post I quoted

It has 16 SMS, so 2048 CC

They had it at 1.5GHz

You get 6.144TFLOPS from that


This is the 550 not the 450


“The graphics card on this laptop seems to be the successor to the Nvidia MX 450, which, not surprisingly, is the MX 550. Geekbench information shows that this GPU uses 16 computing units, which is 2048 CUDA cores according to the Ampere architecture, the same as the RTX 3050. Given that the MX 450 is derived from the GTX 1650, the MX 550 should come from the core of the RTX 3050. This thin and light notebook still has 2GB of video memory.”

新一代轻薄本独显，英伟达 MX 550 曝光：阉割 RTX 3050，2GB 显存 - IT之家

一款 12 代酷睿轻薄本出现在了 Geekbench 上，搭载 i7-1260p 处理器，显卡似乎也升级到了 MX 550

m.ithome.com

 

[ShadowFox08]

From the source in the link you provided in the post I quoted

It has 16 SMS, so 2048 CC

They had it at 1.5GHz

You get 6.144TFLOPS from that


This is the 550 not the 450


“The graphics card on this laptop seems to be the successor to the Nvidia MX 450, which, not surprisingly, is the MX 550. Geekbench information shows that this GPU uses 16 computing units, which is 2048 CUDA cores according to the Ampere architecture, the same as the RTX 3050. Given that the MX 450 is derived from the GTX 1650, the MX 550 should come from the core of the RTX 3050. This thin and light notebook still has 2GB of video memory.”

新一代轻薄本独显，英伟达 MX 550 曝光：阉割 RTX 3050，2GB 显存 - IT之家

一款 12 代酷睿轻薄本出现在了 Geekbench 上，搭载 i7-1260p 处理器，显卡似乎也升级到了 MX 550

m.ithome.com

I know its the 550. I brought up 450 specs because that article said that the mx550 is only a 15% performance boost from 450 based on early bench marks. That doesn't seem that look like 6 TFLOPS to me. Especially with 2GB VRAM.

Then again, its ampere vs turing flops, and turing is significantly more per performant per flop, despite ampere having twice as many cores.

If Switch 2 is orion based, and orion based architecture is more efficient per flop, it will be interesting to see a 15 watt switch 2 variant perform vs this chip at 25 watts.

 

[TonyBaduy]

Ok, thanks, but why do you put a "*" at the end of the "model" ?

What a good news, thanks ! So if Nintendo wants the DLSS, it will be the 2.0 or nothing, good !

It'll ve whatever it is the latest version, if it's 3.1 by the time the new console comes out, then it'll use DLSS 3.1. This is not only Nintendo trying to show something to the world, the next Switch will be the PERFECT troyan horse for Nvidia to push the wonders of DLSS into everyone's homes and for us to see and then need it, they won't let that chance passes by.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

I know its the 550. I brought up 450 specs because that article said that the mx550 is only a 15% performance boost from 450 based on early bench marks. That doesn't seem that look like 6 TFLOPS to me. Especially with 2GB VRAM.

Then again, its ampere vs turing flops, and turing is significantly more per performant per flop, despite ampere having twice as many cores.

If Switch 2 is orion based, and orion based architecture is more efficient per flop, it will be interesting to see a 15 watt switch 2 variant perform vs this chip at 25 watts.

After a little digging, the comparison is between the 450 at max frequency and the 550 at max frequency and it’s only using OpenCL. Further testing on real world performance is necessary to see how it truly plays out, and further details on specs such as whether it is bandwidth limited or not.

 

[Pokemaniac]

I pop into this thread once every month or so. Use to follow it more back in the day but it's been years now of the same Nvidia tech discussion loop and from a sort of outside perspective, year after year, the conversation here has been almost exactly the same. Nintendo will eventually release new hardware of course but I feel like we really have nothing to go off of after years of speculation, rumors and constant loops. What do we know exactly? Nvidia has a new chip that's been in development for years and is taking it's sweet old time and that it's likely Nintendo will use some version of this chip we don't know a whole lot about in a new Nintendo system. Does that cover mostly everything? Seems like the speculation is that the next Switch will be between an Xbox One S and an Xbox Series S? That's a massive gap in the guessing game. What that reads to me is that we really have no idea what Nintendo is doing after what feels like 3+ years of speculation on this thing.

I do want to personally thank Dakhil, Nate and others for their contributions. It's no ones fault that we don't have much information to chew on. Watching The Game Awards this year really made me realize how badly I want to Nintendo hardware. Especially since I own and game on a 4K OLED tv. I have a PS5 and XSX but man I'm constantly watching these next gen reveals thinking how badly I would love to see Nintendo with better visuals. Switch just feels so dated anymore. Two whole generations behind now and growing more dated by the day. A year or two from now, who knows what we will be playing our PS5/XSX consoles and it's just making it really hard to play games on Switch in 720p/20fps like I did with Monster Hunter Stories 2. Rough doesn't even begin to describe this.

I love Nintendo games, always been my favorite game company and ever since the N64 days I dreamed about seeing Mario and other staple franchises match that of CG movies and beyond. PS5/XSX are getting there now but we might be waiting 20+ years for Nintendo to catch up. Still a faster 4K Switch would definitely at least make their currently visuals look a lot more palatable.

Anyways for everyone's sanity, let's hope that this time next year we are actually discussing and seeing some new awesome Nintendo hardware and 4K games and not just discussing potential Nvidia teraflops, memory, theoretical performance and feature sets. Give me that 4K Zelda BOTW 2, Super Mario Odyssey 2 and Metroid Prime 4. It's time to feast!

The basic expectations for the hardware have been pretty settled for some time now: a roughly XB1/PS4-class machine running a variant of the A78 CPU cores (should outperform the XB1/PS4 Jaguar cores by a significant margin) and the Orin version of the Ampere GPU architecture (which means Tensor cores and stuff like DLSS which can be accelerated by them). The recent confirmation that Orin has RT cores moved RT acceleration from "possible, but unlikely" to "more likely than not", but otherwise, this is roughly where expectations have been for around a year now. Current rumors point to targeting a 2022 release, with slipping to 2023 being possible if something goes wrong.

 

[Kevin]

The basic expectations for the hardware have been pretty settled for some time now: a roughly XB1/PS4-class machine running a variant of the A78 CPU cores (should outperform the XB1/PS4 Jaguar cores by a significant margin) and the Orin version of the Ampere GPU architecture (which means Tensor cores and stuff like DLSS which can be accelerated by them). The recent confirmation that Orin has RT cores moved RT acceleration from "possible, but unlikely" to "more likely than not", but otherwise, this is roughly where expectations have been for around a year now. Current rumors point to targeting a 2022 release, with slipping to 2023 being possible if something goes wrong.

Yeah this has been my best take away as well on the subject. So based on these specs, I'm thinking Switch games at 4K and possibly some extra power for improved visuals on top of that as well.

 

[davec00ke]

Yeah this has been my best take away as well on the subject. So based on these specs, I'm thinking Switch games at 4K and possibly some extra power for improved visuals on top of that as well.

PS5 and Xbox Series X both struggle to hit 4k. The Switch 2 will be an 1440p at best

 

[ShadowFox08]

Hooold ya horses there.

While I will say 4 RT cores of Orin may or may not beat the 8 Ray Accelerators in the Series S's GPU (It more or less likely will match it if it's Ampere RT cores rather than double-perf Lovelace RT cores or something)

GPU perf outside of that doesn't need to be nearly as high.

For reference, 1 TFLOP of Ampere roughly converts to 4.1TFLOPs of Polaris.

The PS4 Pro was 4.2 TFLOPs.

If they are targeting 1TFLOP Ampere for Docked Dane performance, that would put it GPU-wise around the PS4 Pro before DLSS.

So with DLSS that should give it a fair bit of margin to more or less match or surpass the Series S GPU-wise, the limiting factor becoming memory bandwidth and CPU if they are pushing it to the limits already somehow (I have my doubts on that ever happening outside of things like 120fps modes until late gen)

And that's just Pure FP32, Mixed Precision should bring its effective TFLOP value higher as Orin has double FP16, and removal of that is the least likely thing to happen uArch wise for Dane.

I wanted to comment on this earlier but forgot... You've said some over the top things man, but I haven't seen anything from Turing that outperforms Polaris architecture by a factor of 4. Let alone Ampere (less efficent than turing per flop as we both know). And we're talking about 2016 AMD Polaris tech, which has mixed precision as well (something OG PS4 doesn't have).

Didn't you make a post about efficiency between AMD AND Nvidia architectures like a week or 2 weeks ago? I don' remember seeing 4x with AMD--> Turing ever being there.

PS5 and Xbox Series X both struggle to hit 4k. The Switch 2 will be an 1440p at best

If we're talking about switch 1 games, 4k shouldn't be hard to attain. If the switch 2 hardware is 4x more powerful than switch 1 without DLSS, then we could see theoretically see 1080p games get a native 4k. For Switch 2 and 3rd party games, I agree that 4k is something we shouldn't expect.

The basic expectations for the hardware have been pretty settled for some time now: a roughly XB1/PS4-class machine running a variant of the A78 CPU cores (should outperform the XB1/PS4 Jaguar cores by a significant margin) and the Orin version of the Ampere GPU architecture (which means Tensor cores and stuff like DLSS which can be accelerated by them). The recent confirmation that Orin has RT cores moved RT acceleration from "possible, but unlikely" to "more likely than not", but otherwise, this is roughly where expectations have been for around a year now. Current rumors point to targeting a 2022 release, with slipping to 2023 being possible if something goes wrong.

I want a Switch 2 before end of 2022, but its really bizarre to get one before the 6 year mark, especially when at this point of Switch's life, it's still selling pretty good at its life cycle.. VS the gamecube, wii and Wii U in the same position, in which sales were rapidly declining for them. I'm thinking 2023 is more likely now (doesn't have to be march 2023) to not burn out switch owners (especially OLED), its still selling well while Sony and MS are struggling with gettig enough of their consoles due to the chop shortages, as well as costs.

But the release of breath of the wild 2 could tell us. I think we have a tenative 2022 release, but we'll see.

 

[Terrell]

I pop into this thread once every month or so. Use to follow it more back in the day but it's been years now of the same Nvidia tech discussion loop and from a sort of outside perspective, year after year, the conversation here has been almost exactly the same. Nintendo will eventually release new hardware of course but I feel like we really have nothing to go off of after years of speculation, rumors and constant loops. What do we know exactly? Nvidia has a new chip that's been in development for years and is taking it's sweet old time and that it's likely Nintendo will use some version of this chip we don't know a whole lot about in a new Nintendo system. Does that cover mostly everything? Seems like the speculation is that the next Switch will be between an Xbox One S and an Xbox Series S? That's a massive gap in the guessing game. What that reads to me is that we really have no idea what Nintendo is doing after what feels like 3+ years of speculation on this thing.

I do want to personally thank Dakhil, Nate and others for their contributions. It's no ones fault that we don't have much information to chew on. Watching The Game Awards this year really made me realize how badly I want to Nintendo hardware. Especially since I own and game on a 4K OLED tv. I have a PS5 and XSX but man I'm constantly watching these next gen reveals thinking how badly I would love to see Nintendo with better visuals. Switch just feels so dated anymore. Two whole generations behind now and growing more dated by the day. A year or two from now, who knows what we will be playing our PS5/XSX consoles and it's just making it really hard to play games on Switch in 720p/20fps like I did with Monster Hunter Stories 2. Rough doesn't even begin to describe this.

I love Nintendo games, always been my favorite game company and ever since the N64 days I dreamed about seeing Mario and other staple franchises match that of CG movies and beyond. PS5/XSX are getting there now but we might be waiting 20+ years for Nintendo to catch up. Still a faster 4K Switch would definitely at least make their currently visuals look a lot more palatable.

Anyways for everyone's sanity, let's hope that this time next year we are actually discussing and seeing some new awesome Nintendo hardware and 4K games and not just discussing potential Nvidia teraflops, memory, theoretical performance and feature sets. Give me that 4K Zelda BOTW 2, Super Mario Odyssey 2 and Metroid Prime 4. It's time to feast!

I think the reason things haven't changed much is because of reasonable boundaries for exploring what's possible. We had a rough timetable for when a release was expected, which gave us reasonable estimations for what chips would be available. We knew Nvidia almost assuredly had first swing at the contract for the SoC with Nintendo, so there wasn't any logical reason to peak out at other vendors. That has a chilling effect on discussion, because of tight parameters. But it also meant that we weren't flying off the damn rails like past hardware speculation discussions were known to do, which made these speculation threads less "sexy" to some people.

In the time since speculation started, seems like it's been ruled out as being an Xavier SoC entirely and (thanks in part to a bit of discipline and reasonable expectations) no one lost their head thinking it would feature an Atlan SoC, kopite7kimi all but confirmed it would be Orin-based in June, so then it was just a waiting game to see what Orin was capable of. Since then, it's basically just been a matter of confirming rumours and making some educated guesses as what we knew to be true narrowed down. Example: kopite7kimi's statement from January that Orin did not feature a stock-standard Ampere GPU and had Lovelace GPU features was all but confirmed when Orin was officially detailed and was found to have features not found in standard Ampere GPUs (like AV1 encode support), though the extent of Lovelace features it nabs is currently unknown.

I think this laser focus on what is likely and realistic means we're a whole lot better informed about what's coming than we've ever been in a similar timeframe, because there's few competing narratives to bushwhack our way through to the truth, nobody to lead us all by the nose off the right path for their own temporary notoriety, etc. It means that there's not a lot of activity, but what activity we get is ALWAYS meaningful in some way.

 

[Pokemaniac]

PS5 and Xbox Series X both struggle to hit 4k. The Switch 2 will be an 1440p at best

How hard it is to hit a particular resolution is highly relative to each individual game. Games for Dane are unlikely to be targeting native 4k all that much in the first place, as well.

I want a Switch 2 before end of 2022, but its really bizarre to get one before the 6 year mark, especially when at this point of Switch's life, it's still selling pretty good at its life cycle.. VS the gamecube, wii and Wii U in the same position, in which sales were rapidly declining for them. I'm thinking 2023 is more likely now (doesn't have to be march 2023) to not burn out switch owners (especially OLED), its still selling well while Sony and MS are struggling with gettig enough of their consoles due to the chop shortages, as well as costs.

But the release of breath of the wild 2 could tell us. I think we have a tenative 2022 release, but we'll see.

Nintendo also moved on from GCN, Wii, and Wii U very quickly, which is vanishingly unlikely to happen with Switch, because of its success, it's a handheld, and because general trends in game dev have incentivized a huge increase in "cross-gen" development.

 

[ShadowFox08]

How hard it is to hit a particular resolution is highly relative to each individual game. Games for Dane are unlikely to be targeting native 4k all that much in the first place, as well.

Nintendo also moved on from GCN, Wii, and Wii U very quickly, which is vanishingly unlikely to happen with Switch, because of its success, it's a handheld, and because general trends in game dev have incentivized a huge increase in "cross-gen" development.

Most definitely. Crazy that PS4 and xbone have been out for 8 years and getting support still, although the chip shortages from 2020 has helped them.

But I'm not used to Nintendo home consoles lasting longer then 6 years, especially with third party support

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

PS5 and Xbox Series X both struggle to hit 4k. The Switch 2 will be an 1440p at best

2160p and 1440p are only resolutions, the switch 2 would be just as capable to hit 4K at a playable framerate as would the Series X and PS5 when it is done correctly.

Case in point the Touryst can run at 4K on the Series S and 6K on the Series X.

 

[Dakhil]

When HDMI 2.1 Isn't HDMI 2.1 - The Confusing World of the Standard, "Fake HDMI 2.1" and Likely Future Abuse - TFTCentral

When HDMI 2.1 Isn't HDMI 2.1 - The Confusing World of the Standard, "Fake HDMI 2.1" and Likely Future Abuse

tftcentral.co.uk

1. HDMI 2.0 no longer exists, and devices should not claim compliance to v2.0 as it is not referenced any more
2. The features of HDMI 2.0 are now a sub-set of 2.1
3. All the new capabilities and features associated with HDMI 2.1 are optional (this includes FRL, the higher bandwidths, VRR, ALLM and everything else)
4. If a device claims compliance to 2.1 then they need to also state which features the device supports so there is no confusion

I hope Nintendo offers proper HDMI 2.1 support (i.e. support Fixed Rate Link (FRL), Variable Refresh Rate (VRR), Auto Low Latency Mode (ALLM), etc.) instead of renaming HDMI 2.0 as HDMI 2.1 (since HDMI.org interestingly said that HDMI 2.0 no longer exists) if Nintendo decides to include HDMI 2.1 support for the DLSS model*, although I imagine Nintendo probably won't publicly mention which HDMI standard the DLSS model* supports.

---

And I'm sorry for the process node talk, but assuming the rumour from Digital Chat Station below is true, then that's proof that process node alone isn't a panacea when performance and power efficiency are concerned. (MT6983 is the Dimensity 9000's model name and SM8475 is the rumoured Snapdragon 8 Gen 1+'s model name, which is rumoured to be fabricated using TSMC's N4 process node.)

 

[Terrell]

When HDMI 2.1 Isn't HDMI 2.1 - The Confusing World of the Standard, "Fake HDMI 2.1" and Likely Future Abuse - TFTCentral

When HDMI 2.1 Isn't HDMI 2.1 - The Confusing World of the Standard, "Fake HDMI 2.1" and Likely Future Abuse

tftcentral.co.uk

I hope Nintendo offers proper HDMI 2.1 support (i.e. support Fixed Rate Link (FRL), Variable Refresh Rate (VRR), Auto Low Latency Mode (ALLM), etc.) instead of renaming HDMI 2.0 as HDMI 2.1 (since HDMI.org interestingly said that HDMI 2.0 no longer exists) if Nintendo decides to include HDMI 2.1 support for the DLSS model*, although I imagine Nintendo probably won't publicly mention which HDMI standard the DLSS model* supports.

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And I'm sorry for the process node talk, but assuming the rumour from Digital Chat Station below is true, then that's proof that process node alone isn't a panacea when performance and power efficiency are concerned. (MT6983 is the Dimensity 9000's model name and SM8475 is the rumoured Snapdragon 8 Gen 1+'s model name, which is rumoured to be fabricated using TSMC's N4 process node.)

We're allegedly beginning to hit the wall of Moore's 1st and 2nd Law, so that makes sense.

 

[Mr Swine]

I think in the absolute worst case scenario, the DLSS model* in TV mode would be roughly on par with the Xbox One S, but without DLSS enabled; and in the absolute best case scenario, the DLSS model* in TV mode would be relatively close to the Xbox Series S, but with DLSS enabled.

Wouldn’t best case be around PS4 Tflops in docked mode while undocked mode is under the original Xbox One Tflop?

I would be happy with a 1.6-1.8Tflop docked while 800Gflop-1Tflop undocked.

It would be enough to run RDR2 at 720p with the same fidelity as the PS4/Xbone versions.

 

[ILikeFeet]

The digital foundry article of The Matrix updated. The demo, on high end systems, used about 10MB per frame of on nanite data. So 300MB/s of throughput for the ssd. This scales with the resolution and the demo went as low as 1066p on Series X and 533p on Series S (during the letter boxed cinematic shots)

This should give an idea of what kind of storage Nintendo needs to put into Dane to "match" other systems. I use match very loosely, an even more cut down version of the demo would be needed

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

The digital foundry article of The Matrix updated. The demo, on high end systems, used about 10MB per frame of on nanite data. So 300MB/s of throughput for the ssd. This scales with the resolution and the demo went as low as 1066p on Series X and 533p on Series S (during the letter boxed cinematic shots)

This should give an idea of what kind of storage Nintendo needs to put into Dane to "match" other systems. I use match very loosely, an even more cut down version of the demo would be needed

We at least have an idea of the low bar with respect to memory, which seems to be to have at least 7.5GB of memory available , granted that’s the Series S and that’s a customized version in the end.

They can surely match even that minimum in memory availability.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Also, nanite is using mesh shaders/primative shaders (which soft confirms that primative shaders are equivalent to mesh shaders)

 

[Dakhil]

Wouldn’t best case be around PS4 Tflops in docked mode while undocked mode is under the original Xbox One Tflop?

I would be happy with a 1.6-1.8Tflop docked while 800Gflop-1Tflop undocked.

It would be enough to run RDR2 at 720p with the same fidelity as the PS4/Xbone versions.

That sounds about right without DLSS enabled. But I did mention that being relatively close to the Xbox Series S with DLSS enabled.

 

[Dekuman]

I know we've sort of priced in DLSS based on leaks and rumors, but those have known to be not 100% right before.

So what are the chances this devices doesn't get DLSS and would a device that's roughly 3x more powerful 'acceptable' as a successor that's going to last them through to probably 2028

 

[ILikeFeet]

I know we've sort of priced in DLSS based on leaks and rumors, but those have known to be not 100% right before.

So what are the chances this devices doesn't get DLSS and would a device that's roughly 3x more powerful 'acceptable' as a successor that's going to last them through to probably 2028

if this doesn't get dlss then a lot of what we think and what has been alleged is wrong. it's not Orin-based, it's not using Ampere, and it's not 8nm. that last one means that "3x more powerful" isn't possible at all.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Also, nanite is using mesh shaders/primative shaders (which soft confirms that primative shaders are equivalent to mesh shaders)

Does it? I only saw mention of the RT being hardware accelerated.

I know we've sort of priced in DLSS based on leaks and rumors, but those have known to be not 100% right before.

So what are the chances this devices doesn't get DLSS and would a device that's roughly 3x more powerful 'acceptable' as a successor that's going to last them through to probably 2028

3x in what sense? There’s multiple aspects to a device like this

 

[Dakhil]

I know we've sort of priced in DLSS based on leaks and rumors, but those have known to be not 100% right before.

So what are the chances this devices doesn't get DLSS and would a device that's roughly 3x more powerful 'acceptable' as a successor that's going to last them through to probably 2028

There are also two patents (here and here) from Nintendo European Research & Development (NERD) titled "Systems and Methods for Machine Learned Image Conversion".

So based on the NERD's patents, as well as rumours consistently mentioning DLSS support, I think the likelihood of not having DLSS support in any shape or form is fairly unlikely. And I don't think being roughly 3x more powerful in terms of raw performance alone is enough to guarantee ports of PlayStation 5 and/or Xbox Series X|S exclusive games, especially if PlayStation 5 and/or Xbox Series X|S exclusive games natively run at ~1080p with unstable frame rates, as shown with The Matrix Awakens.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

The Matrix Awakens.

On an unoptimized engine no less!

 

[ILikeFeet]

Does it? I only saw mention of the RT being hardware accelerated.

Nanite already uses mesh/prim shaders (check out the shader source) for hardware rasterization. As with any other features, I'm sure we'll continue to evaluate and use those that make sense.

Unreal Engine 5, [UE5 Developer Availability 2022-04-05]

Yeah there's a distance where they turn off shadow casting from the NPCs in sandbox. I'm not entirely sure if that distance/decision was revisited later in the project though; it may not be as necessary as it was earlier on. That said, the NPCs are indeed non-Nanite (skinned, etc) and thus they...

forum.beyond3d.com

*note he works at Epic

 

[Deleted member 887]

There are also two patents (here and here) from Nintendo European Research & Development (NERD) titled "Systems and Methods for Machine Learned Image Conversion".

So based on the NERD's patents, as well as rumours consistently mentioning DLSS support, I think the likelihood of not having DLSS support in any shape or form is fairly unlikely. And I don't think being roughly 3x more powerful in terms of raw performance alone is enough to guarantee ports of PlayStation 5 and/or Xbox Series X|S exclusive games, especially if PlayStation 5 and/or Xbox Series X|S exclusive games natively run at ~1080p with unstable frame rates, as shown with The Matrix Awakens.

Tensor cores seem like a given unless everything we strongly suspect about the device is off. The NERD patents imply that Nintendo may use - either for their own games, or provided to devs - an Alternative AI Assisted, Tensor Core Accelerated Upscaling Algorithm (tm).

Aside: I've seen some folk speculate/claim the NERD patents are intended for upscaling work during development, as for remasters. The patents both repeatedly emphasize real-time performance characteristics, it seems clear their intended for in-engine implementation, and specifically mention tensor core acceleration. Moreover, both patents specifically mention disabling the algorithm when a mobile device is running on battery power and re-enabling when it is plugged into a socket and outputting to a higher resolution screen.

These patents are, specifically, for games running on a Tensor Core Enabled Switch.

 

[Pokemaniac]

I hope Nintendo offers proper HDMI 2.1 support (i.e. support Fixed Rate Link (FRL), Variable Refresh Rate (VRR), Auto Low Latency Mode (ALLM), etc.) instead of renaming HDMI 2.0 as HDMI 2.1 (since HDMI.org interestingly said that HDMI 2.0 no longer exists) if Nintendo decides to include HDMI 2.1 support for the DLSS model*, although I imagine Nintendo probably won't publicly mention which HDMI standard the DLSS model* supports.

Fun, so we've got another USB 3.x situation on our hands. This is what happens when you let marketers who want to sell cheap crap dictate your spec.

I know we've sort of priced in DLSS based on leaks and rumors, but those have known to be not 100% right before.

So what are the chances this devices doesn't get DLSS and would a device that's roughly 3x more powerful 'acceptable' as a successor that's going to last them through to probably 2028

I mean, there's a pretty good reason why DLSS is sort of priced in at this point. For that, or something similar to it, to not be supported would basically unravel the entire current set of rumors. Once you start going in that direction, you start considering weird scenarios like the mythical TX1++, Nintendo somehow getting Nvidia to build a new GPU without tensor cores (lol), or an outright vendor swap.

 

[Brofield]

I think in the absolute worst case scenario, the DLSS model* in TV mode would be roughly on par with the Xbox One S, but without DLSS enabled; and in the absolute best case scenario, the DLSS model* in TV mode would be relatively close to the Xbox Series S, but with DLSS enabled.

I've been meaning to actually ask this thread what their expectations are of the successor because everyone always seems to reference "PS4 Pro before DLSS", but in the instances of AAA 3D space games utilizing DLSS, portable Series S sounds mighty enticing.

That being said though, what's the kind of price range people anticipate between these best and worst case scenarios?

When HDMI 2.1 Isn't HDMI 2.1 - The Confusing World of the Standard, "Fake HDMI 2.1" and Likely Future Abuse - TFTCentral

When HDMI 2.1 Isn't HDMI 2.1 - The Confusing World of the Standard, "Fake HDMI 2.1" and Likely Future Abuse

tftcentral.co.uk

I hope Nintendo offers proper HDMI 2.1 support (i.e. support Fixed Rate Link (FRL), Variable Refresh Rate (VRR), Auto Low Latency Mode (ALLM), etc.) instead of renaming HDMI 2.0 as HDMI 2.1 (since HDMI.org interestingly said that HDMI 2.0 no longer exists) if Nintendo decides to include HDMI 2.1 support for the DLSS model*, although I imagine Nintendo probably won't publicly mention which HDMI standard the DLSS model* supports.

I know I asked recently too so it's probably a moot point, but with no further news on the teardown of the OLED dock, I guess it'll be tough to figure out which HDMI 2.1 features the new dock can support if it will be forward compatible with the successor

 

[ILikeFeet]

I've been meaning to actually ask this thread what their expectations are of the successor because everyone always seems to reference "PS4 Pro before DLSS", but in the instances of AAA 3D space games utilizing DLSS, portable Series S sounds mighty enticing.

That being said though, what's the kind of price range people anticipate between these best and worst case scenarios?

I pray no one is expecting PS4P before DLSS.

I'm around "GTX 1040" levels of performance before DLSS. GTX 1050 at best. $400 at the top end of price. $350 at the low end

 

[Dekuman]

if this doesn't get dlss then a lot of what we think and what has been alleged is wrong. it's not Orin-based, it's not using Ampere, and it's not 8nm. that last one means that "3x more powerful" isn't possible at all.

I was just imagining a frankenstein setup or possibly just the same Ampere chip we've been discussing but with no DLSS features because it wasn't working as hoped and its too far aong to build a new chip, so we endup with a DLSS-less chip with 3x base perf to the OG Switch.

Does it? I only saw mention of the RT being hardware accelerated.

3x in what sense? There’s multiple aspects to a device like this

i don't know honestly, none of the leaks point to it, but a scenario like what i've descrtibed above

There are also two patents (here and here) from Nintendo European Research & Development (NERD) titled "Systems and Methods for Machine Learned Image Conversion".

So based on the NERD's patents, as well as rumours consistently mentioning DLSS support, I think the likelihood of not having DLSS support in any shape or form is fairly unlikely. And I don't think being roughly 3x more powerful in terms of raw performance alone is enough to guarantee ports of PlayStation 5 and/or Xbox Series X|S exclusive games, especially if PlayStation 5 and/or Xbox Series X|S exclusive games natively run at ~1080p with unstable frame rates, as shown with The Matrix Awakens.

thanks.

 

[Dakhil]

On an unoptimized engine no less!

Although that's true, I still expect PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S exclusive games to run natively at a resolution of ~1080p, especially with ray tracing implemented.

That being said though, what's the kind of price range people anticipate between these best and worst case scenarios?

Most people think that Nintendo will price the DLSS model* at $399.99, although I'm one of the six people who think Nintendo will price the DLSS model* at $449.99, there are six people who think Nintendo will price the DLSS model* at $349.99, and there's one person who thinks Nintendo will price the DLSS model* at $499.99.

I think $399.99 is the best case scenario and $499.99 is the worst case scenario when the price is concerned.
(The poll is still open for anyone who wants to vote who hasn't voted yet.)

I pray no one is expecting PS4P before DLSS.

Fortunately, I haven't seen anyone so far thinking that the DLSS model* will be roughly on par with the PlayStation 4 Pro without DLSS enabled. I think I've seen most people think that the DLSS model* in the absolute best case scenario will be roughly on par with the PlayStation 4 without DLSS enabled.

 

[ILikeFeet]

I was just imagining a frankenstein setup or possibly just the same Ampere chip we've been discussing but with no DLSS features because it wasn't working as hoped and its too far aong to build a new chip, so we endup with a DLSS-less chip with 3x base perf to the OG Switch.

neural networks are scalable, in both quality and run time. so I can't see a situation where it doesn't, at least, net better performance than typical TAA solutions. making a frankenstein chip is less worth it than just not using the tensor cores. it's not like you'll gain much by removing them