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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

I pray no one is expecting PS4P before DLSS.

I'm around "GTX 1040" levels of performance before DLSS. GTX 1050 at best. $400 at the top end of price. $350 at the low end


Whoop, like Dakhil said I think I must be misremembering and people were just saying PS4 before DLSS 😅

Maybe it was just YouTube's compression, but honestly if the Switch successor could hit that with a little extra anti-aliasing included, I'd be mighty happy

Although that's true, I still expect PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S exclusive games to run natively at a resolution of ~1080p, especially with ray tracing implemented.


Most people think that Nintendo will price the DLSS model* at $399.99, although I'm one of the six people who think Nintendo will price the DLSS model* at $449.99, there are six people who think Nintendo will price the DLSS model* at $349.99, and there's one person who thinks Nintendo will price the DLSS model* at $499.99.
45Cay4f.png

I think $399.99 is the best case scenario and $499.99 is the worst case scenario when the price is concerned.
(The poll is still open for anyone who wants to vote who hasn't voted yet.)


Fortunately, I haven't seen anyone so far thinking that the DLSS model* will be roughly on par with the PlayStation 4 Pro without DLSS enabled. I think I've seen most people think that the DLSS model* in the absolute best case scenario will be roughly on par with the PlayStation 4 without DLSS enabled.
$400 USD being about ~$511 CAD, so maybe $519.99 would be Canadian MSRP. With the taxes in Ontario pushing that up to ~$586, that would make me loosen an imaginary necktie with a finger while making audible noises.

Really hope at that price the internal flash storage is up to snuff and it has all the pretty bells and whistles to make it worthwhile
 
I know we've sort of priced in DLSS based on leaks and rumors, but those have known to be not 100% right before.

So what are the chances this devices doesn't get DLSS and would a device that's roughly 3x more powerful 'acceptable' as a successor that's going to last them through to probably 2028

This next device is more certain to have DLSS features than RT, but again the closest thing we have currently using the Ampere architecture would be the 3050 laptop variant. Currently that's the smallest scale Ampere GPU that is capable of both DLSS and RT and comparable enough to the full Orin SoC' GPU (of course the Orin NX is half of that but it gives a decent example).
 
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Fun, so we've got another USB 3.x situation on our hands. This is what happens when you let marketers who want to sell cheap crap dictate your spec.
USB was doing that back with USB 2! Off the top of my head, USB 1.x speeds became "2.0 Full Speed", and the actually faster 2.0 was "2.0 High Speed"...I think. It may have been the other way around.

(There's actually some minor differences between 1->2 and 2->3 at the same speeds, so it's not complete BS, but yeah it's BS)
Most people think that Nintendo will price the DLSS model* at $399.99, although I'm one of the six people who think Nintendo will price the DLSS model* at $449.99, there are six people who think Nintendo will price the DLSS model* at $349.99, and there's one person who thinks Nintendo will price the DLSS model* at $499.99.
45Cay4f.png

I think $399.99 is the best case scenario and $499.99 is the worst case scenario when the price is concerned.
(The poll is still open for anyone who wants to vote who hasn't voted yet.)


Fortunately, I haven't seen anyone so far thinking that the DLSS model* will be roughly on par with the PlayStation 4 Pro without DLSS enabled. I think I've seen most people think that the DLSS model* in the absolute best case scenario will be roughly on par with the PlayStation 4 without DLSS enabled.
I was in the $399 camp before, but with the way everything is going in the world, and the OLED bumping things up, decent chance they have the price elasticity to go up to $449 if they want/need to.
Whoop, like Dakhil said I think I must be misremembering and people were just saying PS4 before DLSS 😅

Maybe it was just YouTube's compression, but honestly if the Switch successor could hit that with a little extra anti-aliasing included, I'd be mighty happy
I remember a while back the expected ballpark was something between XBO and PS4 so who knows. Definitely been some quite optimistic projection from there by some people though. But yeah there's massive room for improvement, and modern capabilities/effects beyond raw power can augment that.
 
Switch 2 will be $299 Nintendo want's mass mainstream market not tech nerds like us
So do you think that Nintendo will drop the price of the OLED model to $249.99, the Nintendo Switch to $199.99, and the Nintendo Switch Lite to $99.99 to make way for the DLSS model* to be priced at $299.99?
 
Honestly I've come to accept that this device can't be a successor for that reason alone. It isn't feasible to sell it at a mass market price, and as such it will be forced into an enthusiast branding.
ain't stopping any other system, so why should it stop Dane?
 
Honestly I've come to accept that this device can't be a successor for that reason alone. It isn't feasible to sell it at a mass market price, and as such it will be forced into an enthusiast branding.
Welcome to the Skittzo side.

Honestly I think it'll be both, just at different times. It'll debut as Switch 4k and then after a few years become the de facto Switch 2 when Switch 1 stops getting produced and the price can come down (or they can release a cheaper model with less storage or something)
 
Welcome to the Skittzo side.

Honestly I think it'll be both, just at different times. It'll debut as Switch 4k and then after a few years become the de facto Switch 2 when Switch 1 stops getting produced and the price can come down (or they can release a cheaper model with less storage or something)
in terms of naming minutiae "Switch 4K" really can do both
 
Yeah it's gonna be Switch 4k for sure. Which sucks because that's an awful name.

I guess it's similar in concept to "Nintendo 64"
it's not awful. it's perfectly fine

it's far better than super, advance, new, and even pro
 
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they won't make $500 hardware. but $400? definitely.
ehhhhhhhh okay yeah I'll concede that. 400 usd might be our end goal

I do think the initial pro-style soft launch will be higher, and we'll see cuts down to that as it becomes the primary platform
 
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I think OLED at $350 is a signal. Just from inflation alone it's extremely unlikely they are going to hit $299 again

Granted there may be a $299 bare bones SKU.but.$350 to 399 makes the most sense
 
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The Switch couldn't play 3DS games thats why the 3Ds was kept around
The Game Boy Advance was not discontinued until around 2 years in Japan, around 3 years in Europe, and over 5 years in North America, after the Nintendo DS was released, despite the fact that the Nintendo DS can play Game Boy Advance games. And the Nintendo DS wasn't discontinued until around 2 years after the Nintendo 3DS was released, despite the fact that the Nintendo 3DS can play Nintendo DS games.

As I said before, just because Sony discontinued the PlayStation 4 a little less than 2 months after the PlayStation 5 was released doesn't necessarily mean Nintendo will follow suit.
 
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I've been meaning to actually ask this thread what their expectations are of the successor because everyone always seems to reference "PS4 Pro before DLSS", but in the instances of AAA 3D space games utilizing DLSS, portable Series S sounds mighty enticing.

That being said though, what's the kind of price range people anticipate between these best and worst case scenarios?
I will say that what the cost of the hardware is does not necessary dictate a price for it.
They will just stop producing them
Look at Sony with the PS4
I was momentarily with you until these posts. What Sony does has no bearing on anyone else, especially with regard to console production. Case in point: Microsoft hasn’t discontinued the Xbox One S.
Honestly I've come to accept that this device can't be a successor for that reason alone. It isn't feasible to sell it at a mass market price, and as such it will be forced into an enthusiast branding.
Why isn’t it feasible?

Nintendo has a long history of selling at a manageable loss at launch to be recovered in the first year or so, especially when they want to aggressively price their hardware. It’s suspected N64 sold at a loss when its price was dropped by $50 from the originally planned MSRP as a competitive measure. GameCube sold at a minor 2-digit loss. Wii U was the most notable for selling at a loss, not breaking even unless it was purchased with a game, and did so for most of its first 2 years on sale. 3DS was sold at a loss when its infamous price cut happened. While Switch was not sold at a loss at launch, it also wasn’t making them a whole lot of profit, either.

If Nintendo thinks it can risk selling what I call “Switch DX” at a loss and sees a reason it would be advantageous to do so, it will.

I am firmly in the $350 camp on that basis. They don’t want to be much higher than the price of a Series S and will likely be able to hit that price with a minor loss in the 2-digit range.
 
It won’t be Switch 4K because people without 4K TVs will think they don’t need it - you want everyone to want your hardware. A lot of games probably won’t hit 4K either so they won’t want to advertise it in that way.
Unless it has a 4k screen (and still never hits native resolution but who cares it's just marketing)
 
Quoted by: LiC
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I will say that what the cost of the hardware is does not necessary dictate a price for it.


I was momentarily with you until these posts. What Sony does has no bearing on anyone else, especially with regard to console production. Case in point: Microsoft hasn’t discontinued the Xbox One S.

Why isn’t it feasible?

Nintendo has a long history of selling at a manageable loss at launch to be recovered in the first year or so, especially when they want to aggressively price their hardware. It’s suspected N64 sold at a loss when its price was dropped by $50 from the originally planned MSRP as a competitive measure. GameCube sold at a minor 2-digit loss. Wii U was the most notable for selling at a loss, not breaking even unless it was purchased with a game, and did so for most of its first 2 years on sale. 3DS was sold at a loss when its infamous price cut happened. While Switch was not sold at a loss at launch, it also wasn’t making them a whole lot of profit, either.

If Nintendo thinks it can risk selling what I call “Switch DX” at a loss and sees a reason it would be advantageous to do so, it will.

I am firmly in the $350 camp on that basis. They don’t want to be much higher than the price of a Series S and will likely be able to hit that price with a minor loss in the 2-digit range.
well fair enough I suppose

I don't see the incentive to price it aggressively when its initial function will be to raise the enthusiast software attach rate, and that market will pay uncompetitive prices. But I was uninformed about the precedent so I guess I'll concede
 
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Yeah it's gonna be Switch 4k for sure. Which sucks because that's an awful name.

I guess it's similar in concept to "Nintendo 64"
Game Boy Color, 64, DS, 3DS, 2DS. I guess Virtual Boy kinda fits too. GameCube was a cube (almost), that played games.

(but yeah I don't like "4K" either, for various reasons)
 
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It won’t be Switch 4K because people without 4K TVs will think they don’t need it - you want everyone to want your hardware. A lot of games probably won’t hit 4K either so they won’t want to advertise it in that way.
Agreed. I don't have a 4K tv, I don't care to have a 4K tv, but you better bet I'm excited about Dane because I'm a Xenoblade fan and I want to see some patches.

There will be benefits to this system beyond it simply being able to DLSSify stuff up to 4K. I doubt Nintendo will pull a WiiU and focus so heavily on marketing just one feature of the system that the whole package gets lost for people who aren't swayed by that one feature.

As far as price, I could see Nintendo keeping a 3-tier thing going. Currently we have Lite at $200, Switch at $300, and SWOLED at $350... I could see Dane taking the $350 spot when it debuts, bumping SWOLED down to $300 (and bumping the standard hybrid Mariko out of the market), and keeping the Lite as-is at $200. Eventually when they're ready to phase out Mariko models entirely the Dane could be the new "regular" $300 system, a new Dane-based Lite could come in at $250 (so they can keep all three systems within consistent $50 hops of each other), and they can then wait for the next big SoC jump for an eventual new Super at $350.

I just think if the Dane launched at $400 (which could happen since it'd be consistent $100 hops between Lite, Standard, and Super) there'd be too big a conversation about the price difference between it and the Series S.
 
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I'm not sure the loss incurred by Nintendo selling the DLSS model* at $349.99 would be minor, considering prices of electronic components have risen by 14.5% in 2021, with prices expected to increase by an additional 7-8% in 2022.
Until we BoM out what we expect will be included in Dane, we can’t possibly know for sure how the effects are felt and what kind of loss they could possibly incorporate. But I will say that OLED model released in the midst of this rise in component pricing and Nintendo still only pushed the price up by $50, a price bump intended to preserve their target profit margin over a standard Mariko Switch model.
 

*note he works at Epic
Ooh I see, thank you.
PS4 Pro before DLSS
Just to correct this, it’s PS4 Pro after DLSS. Not before it. That would be insane.
I was just imagining a frankenstein setup or possibly just the same Ampere chip we've been discussing but with no DLSS features because it wasn't working as hoped and its too far aong to build a new chip, so we endup with a DLSS-less chip with 3x base perf to the OG Switch.
If it’s too far along and there is no DLSS, it’s likely because they didn’t allow devs to use it and mandated they don’t use it I assume.
Fortunately, I haven't seen anyone so far thinking that the DLSS model* will be roughly on par with the PlayStation 4 Pro without DLSS enabled. I think I've seen most people think that the DLSS model* in the absolute best case scenario will be roughly on par with the PlayStation 4 without DLSS enabled.
There is an expectation that with DLSS enabled, it would be relatively like the PS4 Pro. In some ways that is.
I was in the $399 camp before, but with the way everything is going in the world, and the OLED bumping things up, decent chance they have the price elasticity to go up to $449 if they want/need to.
Yeah I’m in the camp of 400-450 personally. If 450, please hold higher (and faster) storage, k thanks :p
Nintendo will not set their baseline at 500. no way
We don’t really expect 500 unless it can fly.
It won’t be Switch 4K because people without 4K TVs will think they don’t need it - you want everyone to want your hardware. A lot of games probably won’t hit 4K either so they won’t want to advertise it in that way.
I mean, the PS5 says 8k on the box but doesn’t really do that :p.

When it comes to naming a device, there will always and I mean always be that group that would take the meaning literally and not metaphorically on the space. But if you give the proper name of what the product is in the title, what you get is essentially an unnecessarily long name that can confuse others.

For example: Nintendo Switch model that has stronger hardware that can do 4K and give you extra performance, and even if you don’t have a 4K Tv it can give you extra performance for your titles.


That’s the title.

And you’ll still get someone that doesn’t it buy it because they assumed that it wasn’t for them based on the title of it when they don’t have the hardware for it.

But also, timing factors into this, the time during the 2010s is not quite the same as the time now where the majority of the population is connected to the vast media that can provide them information on their finger tips.


If Nintendo doesn’t explain the device in more detail and just leaves it with “does 4K!!!” And ends it there in which it flops, it’s because people didn’t know it works on non 4K TVs or the other benefits. That’s their fault for not actually doing the bare minimum of doing a good first impression for the consumer audience and they would suffer so as a result for doing a terrible job in marketing the device.



The whole marketing is psychological. We before had TV as the major advertiser for gaming related media and WoM from friends and family. Now we have TV, the internet (YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, TikTok, etc.) and the personalities that give us the info even if paid to do so.


That said, I’m not in favor of Switch 4K as the name.
 
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I pray no one is expecting PS4P before DLSS.

I'm around "GTX 1040" levels of performance before DLSS. GTX 1050 at best. $400 at the top end of price. $350 at the low end


Does 1040 even exist?

Though they have the same TFLOPs on paper (1.8), luckily the GTX 1050 out performs base PS4, due to a more efficient and newer not to mention Nvidia) architecture.

From what I've read, PS4 is more in line with GTX 750i, which is 1.38 TFLOPs on paper on 28nm Maxwell architecture. 33%!

Portable PS4 performance at 720p though isn't too farfetched. That would be equivalent to 820 GFLOPs in GCN PS4 architecture (720p --> 1080p 2.25x power) and maybe 620 GFLOPs in Maxwell architecture?
 
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Switch 2 will be $299 Nintendo want's mass mainstream market not tech nerds like us
I dunno about that. Nintendo doesn't like selling at a loss from the get go, especially if it's new/cutting edge. Also since Switch has performed well (as well as selling OLED for $350), $400 is pretty much expected.. I imagine OLED will drop to $300 when it gets released and V2 version to to $250 (lite to $150?).

I could totally see Switch 2 having 2 models. One at 128GB (lol) at $400 and 256-512GB at 450-$500 (hopefully not $500). Hopefully they go with at least 256GB next gen. But fuck is it really worth it to spend an extra $100 for more solid space when a 1TB micro SD card will be sub $100 by the time switch 2 is out.
 
Does 1040 even exist?

Though they have the same TFLOPs on paper (1.8), luckily the GTX 1050 out performs base PS4, due to a more efficient and newer not to mention Nvidia) architecture.

From what I've read, PS4 is more in line with GTX 750i, which is 1.38 TFLOPs on paper on 28nm Maxwell architecture. 33%!

Portable PS4 performance at 720p though isn't too farfetched. That would be equivalent to 820 GFLOPs in GCN PS4 architecture (720p --> 1080p 2.25x power) and maybe 620 GFLOPs in Maxwell architecture?
There's no 1040, but there's a gap for which such a GPU could exist (the 1030 had 384 cores, a theoretical 1040 would have 512 cores, and the 1050 has 640 cores)
 
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I dunno about that. Nintendo doesn't like selling at a loss from the get go, especially if it's new/cutting edge. Also since Switch has performed well (as well as selling OLED for $350), $400 is pretty much expected.. I imagine OLED will drop to $300 when it gets released and V2 version to to $250 (lite to $150?).

I could totally see Switch 2 having 2 models. One at 128GB (lol) at $400 and 256-512GB at 450-$500 (hopefully not $500). Hopefully they go with at least 256GB next gen. But fuck is it really worth it to spend an extra $100 for more solid space when a 1TB micro SD card will be sub $100 by the time switch 2 is out.
They do things they don't like all the time. Leaving out all the times they've sold consoles at a loss as I detailed earlier, they don't like announcing consoles early after what happened with N64, but they did it with "NX" because they felt that they needed to. Nintendo doesn't like doing price cuts (because no one does if they don't have to), but they have (this is actually the first generation Nintendo has gone without a single price cut).

Are people going to spend at least $100 more than an Xbox Series S for a portable hybrid device that underperforms a Series S and does not have its attendant market appeal with Game Pass? We have to seriously consider that part of why Switch has performed as well as it has is because of its price point.
 
Does 1040 even exist?

Though they have the same TFLOPs on paper (1.8), luckily the GTX 1050 out performs base PS4, due to a more efficient and newer not to mention Nvidia) architecture.

From what I've read, PS4 is more in line with GTX 750i, which is 1.38 TFLOPs on paper on 28nm Maxwell architecture. 33%!

Portable PS4 performance at 720p though isn't too farfetched. That would be equivalent to 820 GFLOPs in GCN PS4 architecture (720p --> 1080p 2.25x power) and maybe 620 GFLOPs in Maxwell architecture?
~545GFLOPs of Maxwell in the Switch is loosely equal to 820 GFLOPs PS4 custom GCN which is loosely equal to 690-720 or so Ampere GFLOPs for 720p on a portable screen.


I should really stress that I use the term loosely here since this is not as simple to translate from one to another to another.

There’s a laundry list of factors that needed to be factored in, bandwidth? Bit bus width? Clock speed? Core count? Etc.

So the comparison is really more difficult to pinpoint.

They do things they don't like all the time. Leaving out all the times they've sold consoles at a loss as I detailed earlier, they don't like announcing consoles early after what happened with N64, but they did it with "NX" because they felt that they needed to. Nintendo doesn't like doing price cuts (because no one does if they don't have to), but they have (this is actually the first generation Nintendo has gone without a single price cut).

Are people going to spend at least $100 more than an Xbox Series S for a portable hybrid device that underperforms a Series S and does not have its attendant market appeal with Game Pass? We have to seriously consider that part of why Switch has performed as well as it has is because of its price point.
I should mention that the PS4 was 300 dollars for a long time like the Switch and we see how that turned out :)
 
I should mention that the PS4 was 300 dollars for a long time like the Switch and we see how that turned out :)
"Part of the reason" is apparently a phrase that doesn't resonate. There's quite obviously more to it than price, but one should not discount its place in the recipe for success, much like one could make a cake forgetting to use eggs, but without them, you end up with something tasty but soft and flat.
 
Does 1040 even exist?

Though they have the same TFLOPs on paper (1.8), luckily the GTX 1050 out performs base PS4, due to a more efficient and newer not to mention Nvidia) architecture.

From what I've read, PS4 is more in line with GTX 750i, which is 1.38 TFLOPs on paper on 28nm Maxwell architecture. 33%!

Portable PS4 performance at 720p though isn't too farfetched. That would be equivalent to 820 GFLOPs in GCN PS4 architecture (720p --> 1080p 2.25x power) and maybe 620 GFLOPs in Maxwell architecture?
May I remind people that the RX470 is roughly the equivalent to the PS4 Pro GPU (I think it may be a tad stronger than the PS4 Pro's GPU in actuality)

And I may also say, Orin likely will have a notable per-FLOP increase over Ampere due to the doubling of L2 and the 50% more L1 Cache which is a direct adressment of Ampere's inability to feed all it's shader cores fast enough.

If AMD can get 30-40% of their rated 53% uplift of True RDNA2 from Cache alone, NVIDIA doing the same on a uArch that is seemingly desperate for memory bandwidth at a Cache level is at least worth a 20% increase.

IMHO, the lower bar for Docked Dane is around the GTX 1050Ti before DLSS, well in the PS4 Pro side of the PS4-PS4 Pro gap, so most PS4Pro games ran at 1440p checkerboard to 4K, Dane at the lower end should be able to do PS4 Pro graphical settings (bandwidth permitting) at 1080p-1260p before DLSS occurs

The higher-end would be not quite matching the PS4 Pro, but within spitting distance to where uArch preference game-side would determine the victor before DLSS (Assuming Orin gets say, the full boost IC gave AMD and returns it more or less to Turing per-FLOP values, leveraging the better node.etc to gain back more performance)
 
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Switch 4K might be the most likely, but I don't like the whole push for 4K. I'm looking at a 75" 4K screen and the benefit with 4K is minor. 1080p is looking fine, especially with the power demand to go up to 4K with 4x the pixels, ok DLSS helps and I like the upscalling of my NVidia Shield TV, but the push for more resolution (see 8K TVs) is taking away processing power for "better" graphics.

With the experience from the the Wii U naming, they will want to add something consumer buy (see OLED), 4K definately fits that purpose.
 
"Part of the reason" is apparently a phrase that doesn't resonate. There's quite obviously more to it than price, but one should not discount its place in the recipe for success, much like one could make a cake forgetting to use eggs, but without them, you end up with something tasty but soft and flat.
That makes me wonder, it was brought up elsewhere, but outside of the SoC, if Nintendo took longer what can they potentially improve of the rest of the hardware?
May I remind people that the RX470 is roughly the equivalent to the PS4 Pro GPU (I think it may be a tad stronger than the PS4 Pro's GPU in actuality)

And I may also say, Orin likely will have a notable per-FLOP increase over Ampere due to the doubling of L2 and the 50% more L1 Cache which is a direct adressment of Ampere's inability to feed all it's shader cores fast enough.

If AMD can get 30-40% of their rated 53% uplift of True RDNA2 from Cache alone, NVIDIA doing the same on a uArch that is seemingly desperate for memory bandwidth at a Cache level is at least worth a 20% increase.

IMHO, the lower bar for Docked Dane is around the GTX 1050Ti before DLSS, well in the PS4 Pro side of the PS4-PS4 Pro gap, so most PS4Pro games ran at 1440p checkerboard to 4K, Dane at the lower end should be able to do PS4 Pro graphical settings (bandwidth permitting) at 1080p-1260p before DLSS occurs

The higher-end would be not quite matching the PS4 Pro, but within spitting distance to where uArch preference game-side would determine the victor before DLSS (Assuming Orin gets say, the full boost IC gave AMD and returns it more or less to Turing per-FLOP values, leveraging the better node.etc to gain back more performance)
Er, I would dial it back with that PS4 comparison. Unless you mean the 1050, because the 1050ti even constrained by memory outperforms the PS4 iirc.
 
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Er, I would dial it back with that PS4 comparison. Unless you mean the 1050, because the 1050ti even constrained by memory outperforms the PS4 iirc.
?

I wasn't comparing to the OG PS4?

I was comparing to the PS4 Pro, the range of Dane docked likely falls between 70-90% of it's GPU power.

Therefore, the 1050 being stronger than the PS4 non-pro, puts Dane on the PS4 Pro side of that gap
 
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