If I was Nintendo, when would be the best time to announce and release while striking a balance of maximizing the amount of consoles and software for Switch and Drake, without drastically lowering Switch sales (which is still selling well).
Probably 15 months ago. Early 2021 would have been killer. The drop from 2020 to 2021 was huge, and the era of “wow 3rd party support for the Switch is really surprising” was wearing off.
A pro device with BC, especially if all the first party releases in 2022 were enhanced (even minimally) would be a hell of a pitch for the new device plus a strong statement of continued support for the base device. They would likely sell as many pieces of hardware as they could make across all lines in the Switch family.
There's a lot of factors and scenarios to take into account, including if Drake will be backwards compatible with switch games right out of the gate--like literally buying a switch physical or digital copy and putting it in the Drake.
If it isn’t out-of-the-box compatible then it’s not launching in the next year. Nintendo isn’t going to launch a device which can’t use the Switch base library without a “next gen” style rollout
Does it make sense to announce it before the new Pokemon games come out?
Why not? A new device isn’t going to suppress sales of Pokémon, and Pokémon has sold a few handhelds in its time.
if 2022 release, what are the pros and cons of announcing it in August/September and releasing it in November/December?
Releasing in early November is likely great as it’s a new piece of hardware in time for holiday sales. Later might make it hard to acquire while the announcement might suppress holiday sales of the base device
if 2023 Spring release with botw, what are the pros and cons of anouncing it in October (before the holidays) vs January?
The obvious problem is that it suppresses classic switch sales during holiday season. The less obvious but worse problem is it totally fucks up your marketing.
When the OLED was announced, it was featured in the marketing for Dread. Dread was featured in the marketing for the OLED. “Switch” marketing often included some combination of the OLED, the Lite, and the classic.
Everything helped sell everything else, and the story was consistent - the Switch family of devices let’s you play all these great new games.
If Nintendo announces early 2023 hardware in late 2022, then their holiday marketing will either need to feature a device that users can’t actually buy, or will need to downplay the new hardware in commercials, either undercutting their or launch or leaving the impression that this new device is not part of the Switch family.
Neither of these things is good for the long term health of the hardware line well beyond how many units they can move in this holiday season.