that's what I mean by "both forms", TSMC and Samsung
it's an option, but I don't consider it a realistic option. if it gets used everyone is gonna have to scale down their expectations due to the die size and heat
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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
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Question that might have been addressed before:
If the Bloomberg reports were true and devs have had new hardware for a while (~1 year?), has Nintendo since upgraded this or just delayed it? If the latter is correct, is the tech just ageing while they wait to launch it?
Hey fellow Deerhoof fan
If the Bloomberg reports were true and devs have had new hardware for a while (~1 year?), has Nintendo since upgraded this or just delayed it? If the latter is correct, is the tech just ageing while they wait to launch it?
Hey fellow Deerhoof fan
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- Pronouns
- He/Him
There's nothing to support either idea. Devs get devkits for a fairly long time in advance of new consoles, especially the closest and most trusted devs.
There is zero evidence supporting the idea that his has been delayed or been upgraded in any way, the first thing we were told was to expect it in late 2022-early 2023 and that appears to still be the expectation.
Look over there
Bob-omb
TSMC: N2 To Start With Just GAAFETs, Add Backside Power Delivery Later
Introducing GAAFET with N2 starts up volume production in 2H 2025, so expect products in 2026...
Maybe they then try backside power delivery with the 2026 N2 variant, so product in 2027... if they're still that risk-averse, I probably should not expect significant transistor density gains either.
(meanwhile, Intel currently plans to attempt their own version of GAAFET and new power delivery with 20A in 2024)
Might as well spitball a bit what's bouncing around in my head about this sort of thing as it relates to gaming (more specifically focused on the big consoles and their succession):
(reminder, this is just rambling for fun from a rando outsider layman)
Remember those bullcrap rumors from TCL about Pro-style models for PS5/Series in 2023/2024 cause they wanted to drum up 8k TV sales? Of course that's not happening; I don't think it's even feasible for RDNA3 on N5 within the limitations of console design to deliver the upgrade expected from a 'Pro'. I don't think that there will be hardware matrix math acceleration in RDNA3, and I don't see sufficient raw grunt gains in a economically viable monolithic design.
I think that at minimum, 'Pro'-level upgrade requires at least 2 nodes worth of transistor density/power savings and/or all-around improvement in reconstruction techniques. By all-around improvement, I'm referring to like how DLSS beats FSR 2 in image quality, reconstruction time, energy usage, and area usage. Anyway, timeline-wise, that is probably at least RDNA4 in 2024+. If RDNA4 does launch in 2024, I'm betting on MCM/high end only at start, with monolithic no earlier than 2025.
As for a 'PS6'/a 'full generation's worth of improvement as people have been trained to expect? N2's transistor density gains seem low enough that it'd probably take both N2 and hardware AI acceleration. And, thanks to AMD being in very dire condition prior to the success of Zen, they're way behind Nvidia in AI investment. Of course, the wildcard here is what Intel could potentially deliver in the back half of this decade. Or maybe Samsung bounces back in the GAAFET era, who knows. Maybe sheer transistor density + ok enough dedicated hardware could do the job.
As for Nintendo in a post-Drake world? Assuming Nintendo isn't trying some AR or VR system and opts for a 3rd major go at a Switch-type system? shrug Wait and see what Nvidia's next killer feature is? Otherwise, depending on what node Drake is on, there might not be all that much room for raw grunt improvement in the near future.
Link to Twitter thread regarding inventory. Not a compete answer:
Foltzie
Uncle
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- he/him
At 8NM what's realistic in terms of die size and CPU?
I don't understand? This news was about Samsung. TSMC is irrelevant here.
Future Boy Nemo
Daydream Believer
Assuming Samsung 7/6 nodes are going offline and not just unlisted for some other reason that doesn't rule them out for Nintendo, and further assuming Samsung 8nm would be too large and hot for Drake, that still leaves TSMC 7nm or 6nm as potential options.
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Official Q&A transcript should be up within the next day, probably 4-5 hours or so.
OP
OP
Thraktor did some rough calculations in terms of die size. The size of the CPU is currently unknown due to not having enough information.
I should mention TSMC's trying to shift customers from TSMC's N7 process node to TSMC's N6 process node, with the RX 6500 XT and the RX 6400, as notable examples.
- Pronouns
- He/Him/His
My understanding is that even if devkits are still out there, it's a reasonable expectation that they can continue to be modified and tweaked by Nintendo as changes are made to the specs. I think it's just what devs have in their possession is what they know is a minimum (DLSS, rudimentary rtx, RAM, etc.).
Unless I'm horribly mistaken, wasn't Sony updating the devkits for PS5 right up until launch?
Blue Monty
Inkling
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- he/him
Yes that was the case and it is being the case with Drake also it seems
LiC
Member
Yeah, it's not a good assumption that public roadmaps/catalogues are the same as what's available for actual paying customers, especially large ones.
ugh why am I responding to process node posts
yes, but as Dakhil posted, TSMC seems to want people off 7nm. not to mention Nvidia hasn't seemed to buy more 7nm that they just use for GA100. with their $9B buy in for 5nm, I've always believed that Drake could squeeze into that.
Future Boy Nemo
Daydream Believer
Right. Just to be clear, those assumptions were for the sake of argument to understand @ILikeFeet 's reasoning (which they just explained in the post above this). They aren't assumptions that I personally hold.
Node debates are kind of like making picks on sporting events to me: it can be fun, but if you ever become convinced about the outcome there's a good chance you're wrong.
Look over there
Bob-omb
I can understand thinking that 5 would seem too expensive a step beyond 7, but for both TSMC and Samsung, 6 is a refinement/variant of 7.
For TSMC, 5 is the next full node after 7.
For Samsung, 5 is a further refinement of 7. Officially, their next major node after the 7-6-5 line is 4.
kvetcha
hoopy frood
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Hey hey! New album’s around the corner!Hey fellow Deerhoof fan
Alovon11
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So NateDrake, with (at least so far) all transcripts from the investor meeting asking about the startling amount of material/inventory that Nintendo has accrued (Over half the company's value is in raw material atm, versus the 9% it usually is or even the ~20% it was around the lite/SWOLED launches). Along with the strange nature of the Partner Direct seemingly being made out of Obligation with it being the last week of June and it could have made a great full Direct if it had Nintendo First Party stuff in it.
Do you think there's any chance of any announcement or something in July?
My personal reason would be because the Financial Meeting/Report is on August 3rd so the chance to explain the whole Materials thing to Investors who are worried (like the one who asked about it this last meeting) is there as they are going to have even more scrutiny on that because it's not really good for a company which usually has ~9% of its value as raw material suddenly have >50% of it be raw material with no real explanation (As Furukawa in most transcripts sort of handwaved the question saying versions of "It's complicated and is a lot of factors", but those factors listed not sounding like they'd accrue that much without anything else big like a console, variant, or more offices being involved)
At the very least I feel there are decent odds of a First-Party Direct Mini or something in July.
EDIT:
Also as HankyPanky mentions down a few comments, the MK8-Expansion Pass tracks for Wave 2 should get announced in July.
Do you think there's any chance of any announcement or something in July?
My personal reason would be because the Financial Meeting/Report is on August 3rd so the chance to explain the whole Materials thing to Investors who are worried (like the one who asked about it this last meeting) is there as they are going to have even more scrutiny on that because it's not really good for a company which usually has ~9% of its value as raw material suddenly have >50% of it be raw material with no real explanation (As Furukawa in most transcripts sort of handwaved the question saying versions of "It's complicated and is a lot of factors", but those factors listed not sounding like they'd accrue that much without anything else big like a console, variant, or more offices being involved)
At the very least I feel there are decent odds of a First-Party Direct Mini or something in July.
EDIT:
Also as HankyPanky mentions down a few comments, the MK8-Expansion Pass tracks for Wave 2 should get announced in July.
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Or later than that, yeah.
Blue Monty
Inkling
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I'd say August 3rd is the DL, that's when the financial report is out where they would explain to investors their financial plans for the console I'd imagine.
HankyPanky
Bob-omb
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- Funcle
Bit of an arbitary thing but we absolutely have to hear something about the next wave of MK8 DLC in July, with the odds being it launches before the month is over. Last time it was bolted onto the end of a Direct, doesn't have to be announced that way but likely will be. Seems like Nintendo are holding things back maybe the dam will break soon as speculated.
DrDave
Tektite
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This can easily be a Twitter announcement, I don’t think it makes a case for a July Direct, as much as I want one.
Alovon11
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Well the main thing is it's sort of the only "Smash Reveal" like thing they have atm, and those did anchor a fair bit of hype before they ended.
Also not to mention, the absolute oddity that is the Partner Direct's existence seemingly being out of Obligation which indicates they may have had a normal E3 Direct planned (in fact they very much likely did because E3 was canceled mid-year so they had to of had initial plans slated to even have obligations)
mariodk18
Install Base Forum Namer
Were there any rumors about the n3DS before its launch in Japan in October 2014?
Also speaking of the n3DS, I’m pretty sure it has the shortest announcement to release window of any revision/upgraded hardware in Nintendo history. Announced August 29th and released October 11th. That’s barely 1.5 months. I could easily see Nintendo announcing Drake in January of next year for a March release.
Also speaking of the n3DS, I’m pretty sure it has the shortest announcement to release window of any revision/upgraded hardware in Nintendo history. Announced August 29th and released October 11th. That’s barely 1.5 months. I could easily see Nintendo announcing Drake in January of next year for a March release.
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Pehaps but its really hard to see how Nintendo wouldn’t capitalize on a new Zelda release with new hardware/revision given the unique position the Switch is in its current life.
Supreme Bum 01
Bob-omb
I think the Switch successor is going to be 2024.
They are setting up 2 years of Mario Kart DLC and Metroid Prime remakes to get them through to that period.
Then they will release cross-gen Metroid Prime 4, Mario Kart 10, and a definitive Zelda BotW 2 for the new Switch launch period.
They are setting up 2 years of Mario Kart DLC and Metroid Prime remakes to get them through to that period.
Then they will release cross-gen Metroid Prime 4, Mario Kart 10, and a definitive Zelda BotW 2 for the new Switch launch period.
OP
OP
Nintendo isn't the one that directly pays foundry companies (e.g. Intel, Samsung, TSMC) to secure capacity for any particular process node. Nvidia is, and I assume Nintendo pays Nvidia to pay foundry companies to secure capacity for the process node Nintendo and Nvidia decided to use to fabricate Drake.
But that being said, I don't think the likelihood of Nvidia considering using Samsung's 7LPP process node currently is very high.
There was an article from the Korea Herald released on 2 July 2019 where Yoo Eung-joon from Nvidia Korea mentioned that Nvidia's planning on using Samsung's 7LPP process node to fabricate consumer Ampere GPUs. But more than a year later, Nvidia confirmed using Samsung's 8N process node to fabricate consumer Ampere GPUs.
What happened?
Andrei Frumusanu mentioned that the bins for Samsung Galaxy S20, Samsung Galaxy S20+, and Samsung Galaxy S20 Ultra units equipped with the Exynos 990, which was fabricated using Samsung's 7LPP process node, were bad, suggesting yields for the Exynos 990 were bad. Assuming the Korea Herald article is accurate, I think there's a possibility that based on Andrei Frumusanu's review of the Exynos 990, the yields for consumer Ampere GPUs fabricated using Samsung's 7LPP process was completely disastrous to the point where Nvidia decided to use Samsung's 8N process node to fabricate consumer Ampere GPUs as well. (I do think there's a possibility Nvidia was testing the yields of consumer Ampere GPUs on Samsung's 8N process node and Samsung's 7LPP process node simultaneously; hence why Nvidia could possibly switch from Samsung's 7LPP process node to Samsung's 8N process node once Nvidia found out yields for consumer Ampere GPUs fabricated on Samsung's 7LPP process node were disastrous.)
As for Samsung's 6LPP process node, Anton Shilov mentioned that Samsung's 6LPP process node was not part of the MPW (Multi Project Wafer) Shuttle Service, which could mean that only Samsung or other companies not part of the MPW Shuttle Service have access to Samsung's 6LPP process node. I don't know if Nvidia is part of the MPW Shuttle Service or not. But considering that Nvidia have used Samsung's 14 nm** process node (here and here) and Samsung's 8N process node, with both being part of the MPW Shuttle Service, I think there's a possibility Nvidia's part of the MPW Shuttle Service. And considering there were no rumours of Nvidia planning to use Samsung's 6LPP process node, I don't think the likelihood of Nvidia considering using Samsung's 6LPP process node is very high.
TSMC wants to shift customers out of TSMC's N7 process node, not out of TSMC's N6 process node.
By the way, TSMC's N6 process node is still a 7 nm** process node. In fact, TSMC's N6 process node offers the same design rules, performance, and power consumption as TSMC's N7 process node. The only difference is that TSMC's N6 process node offers 18% higher logical density compared to TSMC's N7 process node. In other words, TSMC's N6 process node is an evolution of TSMC's N7 process node.
And Nvidia's using TSMC's 7 nm** process node for fabricating chips other than GA100, such as Nvidia Quantum-2 and ConnectX-7.
** → marketing nomenclature by all foundry companies
NateDrake
Chain Chomp
The raw material bit of info is not new. In fact, it was known in May. People are now only aware because of, ironically, this thread bringing attention to it and then the mention of interest in the AGM. Funny how a bit of information is overlooked until someone decides to make reference to it & now it is latched on as a sign of something more...
It alone isn't enough to serve as an indicator of anything in the immediate. As was reported back in October... if late 2022 is the intended release window, then production will begin in July (as was the case with Lite/OLED). Nintendo announced those just as mass production began.
A July Direct/Showcase may happen but people should not be using that to gauge anything. It's hardly a whisper. It's not a rumor. It has no foundation. It's a possibility that has no meaningful backing behind it at the moment.
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
Nintendo isn't going to delay hardware just because Zelda isn't ready. It's just not practical - development delays in software can happen really close to launch, but you have to build actual robots to manufacture consoles, secure capacity at factories, ship parts globally, stockpile inventory, make deals with retailers. You can't really delay the launch without ceasing to make the hardware, and every minute spent not making hardware on factory capacity you built for that purpose is money lost.
Nintendo might crunch software to make hardware launch. Notably they did that with Sunshine, and deeply regretted it. Breath of the Wild on Switch was a fairly last minute decision - but by all accounts, the game was basically done, it was the porting effort to get it on Switch that was the technical lift.
If Zelda comes out before Pro, and has a Pro patch day 1? Then it will be a compelling part of the Pro library on day one, even if it's been out for a bit. If Pro comes out before Zelda by a few months? Then when Zelda launches, it will sell more Pros.
And as long as the Pro is sub $500 and does 4k anything it will sell as many as they can make, at least initially.
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
Facts. It's frankly, eerie as shit.
Tangent: We used to talk about something we called "credibility laundering" where vague rumors get reported on in small/disreputable places, which is itself a story that larger outlets can report on, which then the original rumor monger can cite as a credible "source" for the rumor they started. It's a common tactic in, say, political circles but to see both malicious and accidental versions of it first hand by participating in this thread is... wild.
ShadowFox08
Paratroopa
oh that too of course
It's too bad they don't do an ampere refresh with 6nm. Lower power draw would be nice. But then again, it might undermine their 4000 series.
OP
OP
That requires Nvidia to redesign consumer Ampere GPUs with TSMC's IPs and EUV lithography in mind since consumer Ampere GPUs are using Samsung's IPs and DUV lithography, which I imagine isn't inexpensive.
ShadowFox08
Paratroopa
yeah it would cost quite a bit. I seriously wish they slowed down with releasing new generations of graphics cards every 2 years.. and make it 3 years at least though It's getting ridiculous now since smaller nodes are reaching their limit.. The 4000 series is rumored to use a ton of power. Wish they waited until they could get a significant bump with the same power bump as it's precious gym.
OP
OP
Samsung Begins Chip Production Using 3nm Process Technology With GAA Architecture
Optimized 3nm process achieves 45% reduced power usage, 23% improved performance and 16% smaller surface area compared to 5nm process
Personally, I think Samsung has a long way to go before regaining trust with customers.
I generally agree with you here, and just want to make a small correction. Yes, the surge in the total inventories was disclosed in February and again in May via the quarterly earnings release. However, the breakdown of inventories (consisting of finished goods, work in progress, and raw materials) was not released till June in advance of the annual shareholders meeting. It was then the elevated level of raw materials caught our attention. Without knowing the value of each individual component, the total inventories itself isn't that illuminating.
Alovon11
Like Like
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Yeah, and now that we do know this, it is a bit of a red flag which one investor even brought up in the recent meeting as mentioned.
mariodk18
Install Base Forum Namer
Is Nintendo really still mulling over a plan A (late 2022) vs plan B (March 2023) situation at this point? How much more time do they have left? When did manufacturing start for n3DS? When did that Spanish rumor about the kickstand for the OLED model come out?
Mochizuki hasn’t commented or posted a new article about the new Switch since exactly nine months ago. And it was thirteen months ago that he detailed the OLED model’s release window.
GDC and “E3” have now passed and the good people here have done more investigation into Nintendo’s financials and comments than video game journalists. It kind of feels like we’re sniffing a bread crumb trail for what should be the biggest hardware scoop since the current gen consoles. But it really seems like we’re just grasping at (well researched) straws in the eyes of other people.
I mean, if we didn’t get the nvidia leaks this year, would we really have gone an entire half year without any other teases for a 2022 launch? The Chinese tips seem flaky, Nate still isn’t sure at this point, no other insider from Schrier to Grubb to Emily to Eurogamer has even whispered anything. Wouldn’t BOTW2’s delay, this weird end of June partner showcase, MH Rise getting DLSS, something spark interest or curiosity in the industry?
Again, if I haven’t stated it yet, I still 100% believe this thing is coming March 2023 at the latest, but is it really still possible that we get a launch this year? Is it maybe because they’re going for a late October/early November launch and that’s why we haven’t heard anything yet?
Nate if you answer one thing: if we hear nothing new on Drake before September, can we still reasonably expect this new hardware to launch in time for the holidays? What would your personal deadline be?
Mochizuki hasn’t commented or posted a new article about the new Switch since exactly nine months ago. And it was thirteen months ago that he detailed the OLED model’s release window.
GDC and “E3” have now passed and the good people here have done more investigation into Nintendo’s financials and comments than video game journalists. It kind of feels like we’re sniffing a bread crumb trail for what should be the biggest hardware scoop since the current gen consoles. But it really seems like we’re just grasping at (well researched) straws in the eyes of other people.
I mean, if we didn’t get the nvidia leaks this year, would we really have gone an entire half year without any other teases for a 2022 launch? The Chinese tips seem flaky, Nate still isn’t sure at this point, no other insider from Schrier to Grubb to Emily to Eurogamer has even whispered anything. Wouldn’t BOTW2’s delay, this weird end of June partner showcase, MH Rise getting DLSS, something spark interest or curiosity in the industry?
Again, if I haven’t stated it yet, I still 100% believe this thing is coming March 2023 at the latest, but is it really still possible that we get a launch this year? Is it maybe because they’re going for a late October/early November launch and that’s why we haven’t heard anything yet?
Nate if you answer one thing: if we hear nothing new on Drake before September, can we still reasonably expect this new hardware to launch in time for the holidays? What would your personal deadline be?
Nintendo should know whether they're releasing hardware in 2022 at this point.
Production has just a couple weeks before it'd have to start in earnest if we go by Lite and OLED timings - and yes, likely for a late October to early November launch. It's not too late for this year, but it will be if we're in the same spot in August.
Mochi isn't going to hear about everything, and he risks more than he gains by reporting further. If the device exists, it'll be obvious he was right and his credibility is restored to those he lost it with. Continuing to write about it has only garnered direct rebuttals from Nintendo; those don't make him look good.
It's time for you, and other enjoyers of this topic, to realize that end of 2023, or 2024, are a real possibility. Nintendo's current software release strategy is, at the very least, perfectly compatible with such scenario.
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I wonder if they did choose an October launch, what would be Nintendo’s launch title? They’d almost certainly be shipping it with something - OLED was day and date with Dread.
October just looks too packed for them to add anything else tho?
NateDrake
Chain Chomp
Sure; but you are going to see a lot of reporting tomorrow and this week that omit the change in how the materials are reported. While it is still elevated in comparison to prior years (except for 2019). It's being used as fuel in substandard reporting. It's fine for speculation and discussion; but, any outlets reporting this news should take extra care.
For this site or any forum to use the data as a point of discussion to speculate what may come... that's fine. For a site or YT channel to use it as a means to push a narrative... it's ill-advised.
I have no answer for that. But personally if the Drake model is launched with a bunch of patches that's good enough for me to jump in. I will replay Luigi's Mansion 3 immediately, and finally buy a copy of Astro Chain.
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4K/60 would do wonders for Astral Chain
Z0m3le
Bob-omb
Too late, Spawnwave made a video about it...
It's pretty simple in the end though, there is either a reveal/announcement in July, or it simply isn't coming this calendar year and we will have to wait until Jan or Feb for a reveal. It's nice that we can drop Drake reveal discussion for 6 months, so even if it doesn't happen, we can enjoy Switch for the rest of this year.
I'll say this, Drake should be on shelves before this time next year, from you and everyone else talking about it, games are already being readied for the device and there is some reason to believe that the reveal will be in 2 or 3 weeks, I'd even suggest July 12-14th for such a reveal, mainly because they didn't show off any first party games in this last direct, but there is many more reasons to believe it is happening soon, both public and private. I can hang on for a few more weeks with hype I guess.
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