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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

good news everyone, a mobile device can handle scenes with 140M triangles thanks to VIRTUALIZED GEOMETRY!

ARM uploaded one of my more anticipated talks, focusing on virtualized geometry on mobile. also known as nanite/mesh shaders



what does this mean? no more poly-starvation! no more poverty geometry like Pokemon! no more middle class geometry like BotW/TotK! we ballin like the 1%!

image.png


"but feet! surely drawing and shading all those triangles brings the system to its knees!"
that's what culling is for

image.png


"ok, but getting to 60fps must take a lot of power"
so energy efficient, it'll make an oil state quake with fear

image.png


the future is bright and full of triangles yall
 
On comparisons and power numbers: Responding to @darthdiablo from a couple pages back.

I'm uncomfortable (as I'm sure you are) with these comparisons even if they're technically accurate, because they miss the nuance. I especially cringe at the phrase "before DLSS" because it implies that DLSS is a free add-on, that just adds performance on top.

On the other hand, the folk who ask for these comparisons are almost always people who either aren't interested in the nuance, or without the background to understand them. And there is nothing wrong with that! People should be able to talk about the product they're considering buying, without having to have 3000 posts in Famiboards academy.

It's this battle to try to describe things to folks in a way that's succinct, but also gives them the right impression. Especially knowing that once your back is turned, someone else will start yelling about "cache hit rates" or some other nonsense, and they'll be lead astray.

For me, I just try to talk about power. I say something like "A smart developer can do anything with this set of tools that the Series S does. A really smart developer could probably do better. Nintendo has some really smart developers" I'm not sure that's a good answer, but it's the best that I can do.
Nail on the head. The people who frequent and contribute to this thread are aware of the nuances of the discussion, but the average person isn't. It's a lot easier to just say "better than PS4" as a catch all for the layman than it is to say "Well... it's around a PS4 but after this, that, and that other thing the visual output can be roughly equivalent to the PS4 Pro even though it's weaker, but only in certain titles that do this and that..." Even that might be enough to cause confusion because, well, if it's not as strong as a PS4 Pro, how can it output stuff like a PS4 Pro? It can lead to a deep rabbithole, and next thing you know you're giving them some Frankenstein'd lecture that covers a little bit of operating systems, a little bit of hardware design/engineering, some AI/ML stuff, etc.

I think using these catch all power comparisons is all well and good, as long as the lack of nuance is acknowledged. If nothing else, it's great to set a floor as long as you keep expectations in check. If it surpasses them, great!
this is overall a good and valuable post but man at what point are we going to move on from calling something with almost the outline as a steam deck compact
I mean... it's compact compared to a PS4 I suppose... I don't think compact = handheld.

The Steam Deck isn't a handheld; it's too big to just carry around everywhere like you would your phone or a DS or something. But... it does fit in your hands. I think that warrants it being compact, considering what the full package of the Deck is capable of. And if speculation is to believed, the Switch 2 is still gonna be smaller than the Deck.
 
Those people tend to have an agenda and rely on confirmation bias to justify it all.

A: "How will this be better than a PS4? The bandwidth is lower"
B: "The bandwidth is actually higher, along with more RAM, better CPU, modern GPU, and better storage.
A: (as a response to the above) "This is Nintendo, a machine designed to play Animal Crossing and Mario, it will be on par with PS4"

Literal conversation I've been a part of. I've read too many posts that just ignore what's right in front of them. Be as cautious and skeptical as you want, but a facet of skepticism is to interrogate your own assumptions.
 
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And the reason to believe they didn't isn't because they prioritize bleeding edge performance, but because they don't, because 4nm is a path to offering what we all assume Nintendo wants to deliver, a compact device with great battery life, the very thing that all their PC handheld competitors have not been able to truly do.

I agree with everything you say, but do want to say that TSMC 4N is actually an "enhanced" 5nm node and not a 4nm one. So in that sense, it's definitely not bleeding edge at all. It's a healthy choice that's neither too new (4nm) or arguably too old (8nm). Kind of lines up with the choices we've seen out of Nintendo as of late (e.g. 12gigs of ram versus 8gigs or 16gigs, 256g of storage space as opposed to 512gigs or cheaper)...
 
I expect it to be compact compared to all of the other PC handhelds. Compact carries the connotation of 'dense' to me, as in, the system can do a lot but the footprint will still be of a sleek tablet. I'll say again that my issue with the Decks size is not the length and height but the thickness and weight. The Switch 2 may approach it in the X and Y dimensions but will most likely be thinner and lighter. That is significant difference in how the console feels in the hand.
 
This journalist shared earlker this year a post on what to expect for Switch 2 and the leaks matched what he posted, so I believe him. On top of that, the dock fan really is an indicator that the system is quite powerful given the extra cooling required.

Here is the link to the post:

Not trying to shit on Necro here, but this info is all stuff that was in this thread for a long time before that article went up on Universo Nintendo. Dude clearly has some sources because he gets stuff like Direct dates, but this article's info is from us ain't it?
 
good news everyone, a mobile device can handle scenes with 140M triangles thanks to VIRTUALIZED GEOMETRY!

ARM uploaded one of my more anticipated talks, focusing on virtualized geometry on mobile. also known as nanite/mesh shaders



what does this mean? no more poly-starvation! no more poverty geometry like Pokemon! no more middle class geometry like BotW/TotK! we ballin like the 1%!

image.png


"but feet! surely drawing and shading all those triangles brings the system to its knees!"
that's what culling is for

image.png


"ok, but getting to 60fps must take a lot of power"
so energy efficient, it'll make an oil state quake with fear

image.png


the future is bright and full of triangles yall

And there it is folks, Switch 2's secret sauce to achieve geometrical densities that could never have been achieved on an 8th gen device.
 
This journalist shared earlker this year a post on what to expect for Switch 2 and the leaks matched what he posted, so I believe him. On top of that, the dock fan really is an indicator that the system is quite powerful given the extra cooling required.

Here is the link to the post:

it will take time for some of these to be confirmed, but 12GB RAM and 256GB storage seems likely and as i said before, during the speculation and anticipation phase, right these get posted, sometimes even by reputable sources as in this case, and this i one such example.
 
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Man that's a wild prediction. Don't think I agree with that.
The math people from this thread have had put together for a while suggest T239 will be potentially capable of 3-3.5 TFLOPS, which'd be within spitting distance of Series S at least. Optimistic sure, but I wouldn't say wild.
 
Do you plan to talk about this post on the next Switch 2 podcast?
I do not.

On the topic of performance/power: discussion of potential is fine; but no one should be making a definitive statement of where the Switch 2 is going to land in comparison to other hardware. RAM is a major piece of the puzzle but clocks are far more significant and everyone is still trying to put together an image with incomplete information. Implementation, optimization, and countless other variables need to be considered.
 
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The math people from this thread have had put together for a while suggest T239 will be potentially capable of 3-3.5 TFLOPS, which'd be within spitting distance at least. Optimistic sure, but I wouldn't say wild.
I should have been more specific. To go out and flatly say to expect that when the only new info was RAM and storage size is wild. The prediction is fine, but in the context of the discussions tonight I don't think I'll be saying stuff like that personally anymore/yet.
 
This journalist shared earlker this year a post on what to expect for Switch 2 and the leaks matched what he posted, so I believe him. On top of that, the dock fan really is an indicator that the system is quite powerful given the extra cooling required.

Here is the link to the post:

Fami -> Necrolipe -> Fami

Re: extra cooling required - if that's about the 2nd fan in dock, LiC had since found evidence that makes him feel fairly confident dock will have only 1 fan.
 
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Eh, we're farther away than we think, I feel. I think the thread - for organizational purposes; it's gonna be a 3k+ page thread with continuous conversation come launch day, after all - may close a few months after the system launches. By then we'll have first impressions, some technical breakdown from Digital Foundry or our own members (depending on who's first lol), and we'll be able to discuss any sort of technical showcases and whatnot since some games will be out by then. It would give us some breathing room to actually... talk about the thing we've been speculating over. Look back on every little detail we got right, and what we got wrong. Geek out over raytraced Wave Racer or F-Zero or something. So on. I don't think it'd be right to just shut this thread down once the system launches, especially given how much history - for lack of a better term - this thread has.

From there, I can see two new paths/successors to this thread: first one being a new hardware speculation thread. Switch 2 Pro Deluxe Sonic & Knuckles rumors will start flying shortly after launch, if the original Switch is anything to go by. Though a lot of us will probably not be in a rush to start this whole process over again, either due to the sheer amount of time we've put into Switch 2 speculation or because we're too busy putting too many hours into our fancy new Switch 2s. The second way forward could be a "Switch 2 Tech Discussion Thread" that would carry on the super nerdy technical spirit of this thread. It would be a fun way to have a centralized spot for the nerdiest of the nerds to explode over how nice the RTAO implementation in the next Zelda game is.
I'm starting to warm up to the "Switch 2 Tech Discussion Thread" idea, it would be a nice place to analyse everything that the developers get up to in the next gen.
 
This journalist shared earlker this year a post on what to expect for Switch 2 and the leaks matched what he posted, so I believe him. On top of that, the dock fan really is an indicator that the system is quite powerful given the extra cooling required.

Here is the link to the post:

Necrolipe is a Famiboards member and actively posts in this thread, so it's funny seeing him referred to as just "this journalist".
 
What should have been discourse about found shipment data (12 GB RAM, 256 GB storage) ends up being about where Switch 2 is in relative to other consoles.

I hope I made sense?
The thread is called “Future Nintendo Hardware Speculation & Discussion” after all though, I understand if you feel it’s gotten off-topic because of the power comparisons, but this isn’t a topic devoted to found shipment data. Maybe there should be one spun off for that if you want to curtail speculation. But I was under the impression this thread is a catch all for future Nintendo hardware discussion.
Not necessarily. It's been pointed out before in this thread that 4N has a lower overall price because so many more chips fit in the same space. On top of that, as the industry moves on to smaller nodes the foundry is gonna want to move on from and phase out 8N.
4N is a EUV process while 8N isn’t, doesn’t EUV add to the cost and complexity of a chip? I’m also remembering lessons from the chip crisis during the pandemic, where shortages for cars were in large lithography on older processes. IDC said a few years ago 54% of global chip production is devoted to “mature” processes and only 17.5% is cutting-edge production. If smaller lithography always had a lower price, there would be no reason to keep all the older fabs on mature processes around.
Famiboards is ahead of the curve but in all honesty, I assumed even outside of here more people knew about the general existence of T239 and its rough performance profile considering Digital Foundry's already discussed it and there's been two years of dialogue on it. Lol
I think the Digital Foundry piece was highly speculative and no longer valid in light of the evidence we received this week. They tried to test a 2050 as a comparative to the T239, but they were off on the core count by 25%, had only 4GB of RAM vs the confirmed 12GB, downclocked the GPU to 750MHz when we believe it may be as high as 1.3GHz docked, and didn’t have an ARM CPU to test with so they used an Intel one, which is complete guesswork. Digital Foundry has repeatedly said recently that PS5 and XSX are CPU-limited in new games like BG3 and Starfield, so the CPU is very much a large part of what can be achieved in a gaming console in 2024/5. A lot of people tend to disregard CPU these days but DF has shown over and over that the current 9th gen is limited. And that’s where the PS5 Pro runs into problems, since it’s using the same CPU with a 10% higher clock at the expense of GPU. Meanwhile, there’s a lot of potential in ARM for the T239 to put up strong IPC vs Zen 2, especially when you consider the higher efficiency of an ARM chip vs an x64 one.
 
A: "How will this be better than a PS4? The bandwidth is lower"
B: "The bandwidth is actually higher, along with more RAM, better CPU, modern GPU, and better storage.
A: (as a response to the above) "This is Nintendo, a machine designed to play Animal Crossing and Mario, it will be on par with PS4"

Literal conversation I've been a part of. I've read too many posts that just ignore what's right in front of them. Be as cautious and skeptical as you want, but a facet of skepticism is to interrogate your own assumptions.
Yeah, I’ve been browsing through reactions over on the other site and have seen the same. Granted, overall reactions over there seem to be mostly positive and optimistic which is somewhat surprising and refreshing.
 
The thread is called “Future Nintendo Hardware Speculation & Discussion” after all though, I understand if you feel it’s gotten off-topic because of the power comparisons, but this isn’t a topic devoted to found shipment data. Maybe there should be one spun off for that if you want to curtail speculation. But I was under the impression this thread is a catch all for future Nintendo hardware discussion.
I wasn't even referring to anything that happened here. I was referring to something that happened offsite, while Fami was down.

this comment should add some more context, Sorry about the vague context, I should have made it a bit clearer. Serif and Oldpuck knew what I was talking about.
 
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One main thing that i remember Furukawa saying is that this go round he wants the announce to release time to be shorter than was for the OG Switch, so wouldnt January to March fall under that
 
Regarding the mismatch speed of SD Express and UFS, I wonder if Nintendo would instead opt to use a portion of the UFS to 'install' certain parts of a game specifically physical games for performance purposes. The same stuff with Android where we can only install apps on internal storage as opposed to external sd card (this used to be the case).
 
I do not.

On the topic of performance/power: discussion of potential is fine; but no one should be making a definitive statement of where the Switch 2 is going to land in comparison to other hardware. RAM is a major piece of the puzzle but clocks are far more significant and everyone is still trying to put together an image with incomplete information. Implementation, optimization, and countless other variables need to be considered.

Nintendo FAM, this is the most up to date power scale in Dragon Ball Super layman terms?

Orange Piccolo: PS4 Pro
Cell MAX: Xbone X
Ultra Instinct Goku: Switch 2
Purple haired receding hair line no eye brow Vegeta: X-Series S
Beast Gohan: PS5
Black Freeza: X series X
Beerus: PS5 Pro
Angels: PC
Zeno: A.I./Skynet in 10 years ._.
 
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I wasn't even referring to anything that happened here. I was referring to something that happened offsite, while Fami was down.
I see, fair enough. On that note, is there an external site tracking outages for Famiboards? Like a status page or something? I don’t know where to go when the site is down to see ETA or what the issue is.
I do not.

On the topic of performance/power: discussion of potential is fine; but no one should be making a definitive statement of where the Switch 2 is going to land in comparison to other hardware. RAM is a major piece of the puzzle but clocks are far more significant and everyone is still trying to put together an image with incomplete information. Implementation, optimization, and countless other variables need to be considered.
Yes, we’ve seen very little about the CPU, I think most of the focus has been on the GPU side. One guy on this forum did have a breakdown on the GPU design last night. I can’t remember which page that was on though
 
One main thing that i remember Furukawa saying is that this go round he wants the announce to release time to be shorter than was for the OG Switch, so wouldnt January to March fall under that
Two months is cutting it way too close, everything about the system would have leaked by that point. And I don't just mean specs, I mean pictures and videos and games. Nintendo regards the Switch as being announced in 2015 (just look at the Furukawa tweet) and we're already way past that.
 
Regarding the mismatch speed of SD Express and UFS, I wonder if Nintendo would instead opt to use a portion of the UFS to 'install' certain parts of a game specifically physical games for performance purposes. The same stuff with Android where we can only install apps on internal storage as opposed to external sd card (this used to be the case).
Nah, there won't be a speed mismatch. All the game storage options (game card, embedded, and removable) will probably be made analogous. Even if they weren't, I don't foresee a game hitting the limits of the slower medium. We have to remember that sequential reads isn't actually a good measure for games as that's more about singular, large files. Games are many small files; you won't even reach the medium's peak read speed because it'll be transferred already
 

wait wait wait wait...


"but the tensor cores on Orin are double size and thus double performance, giving it the performance of 128 regular tensor cores."


"Turing tensor "cores" had 64 lanes, a100/Orin have 256, and rtx ampere have 128. This is why fp32 on cuda cores and dense fp16 on tensor cores is 1:1 performance on rtx arches, and 2:1 on Orin and a100."

does t239 carry over these larger tensor cores??? would that be able to boost dlss? could this be a reason why switch2 will be able to dlss to 4k easier than we suspect?
 
I see, fair enough. On that note, is there an external site tracking outages for Famiboards? Like a status page or something? I don’t know where to go when the site is down to see ETA or what the issue is.

I was going to say downdetector.com but I see it's not being tracked there. No idea then haha.
 
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this is overall a good and valuable post but man at what point are we going to move on from calling something with almost the outline as a steam deck compact
I get you don't think that a device this size is properly a "portable" and I don't disagree with you, but "smallest handheld of a generation with a shitton of handhelds" is certainly worth calling compact in a paragraph when I'm explicitly comparing handhelds.

Big-screen-itis sucked for phones and it sucks here too, but a 13% growth in size is an almost comical amount of restraint for a portable device over 7 years. In the same time, the iPhone has gone up by 20% in size, and 30% weight.
 
Nintendo FAM, this is the most up to date power scale in Dragon Ball Super layman terms?

Orange Piccolo: PS4 Pro
Cell MAX: Xbone X
Ultra Instinct Goku: Switch 2
Purple haired receding hair line no eye brow Vegeta: X-Series S
Beast Gohan: PS5
Black Freeza: X series X
Beerus: PS5 Pro
Angels: PC
Zeno: A.I./Skynet in 10 years ._.
see now this I understand
 
Or September to October.
Switch 1 had the reveal trailer dropped in October 2016, 5 months ahead of release in March. But they didn’t release the full details until January, two months ahead of release. My thinking is, they know PS5 Pro is coming this fall, so if they want to prevent Switch owners from buying one in the holiday 2024 window, they have to have announced hardware before that so people can make an informed decision. After all, PS5 Pro makes the most sense to people who have a Switch, Xbox, or PS4, not really to people who already have a PS5.
 
Just thinking of what the Nintendo teams did with the current Switch and then looking at these specs and how big a jump it is…..I’m very excited to see what they can achieve with this machine!

Microphone being included, wonder if voice chat will be at a system level now as opposed to the NSO app? I was also hoping for a camera to be added for some potential cool features like AR and next Wario Ware shenanigans but alas it seems not.
 
Nintendo FAM, this is the most up to date power scale in Dragon Ball Super layman terms?

Orange Piccolo: PS4 Pro
Cell MAX: Xbone X
Ultra Instinct Goku: Switch 2
Purple haired receding hair line no eye brow Vegeta: X-Series S
Beast Gohan: PS5
Black Freeza: X series X
Beerus: PS5 Pro
Angels: PC
Zeno: A.I./Skynet in 10 years ._.
I'm well versed in Dragonball, but I've never heard at least half these forms. I'm assuming They're from the most recent movie?
 
Yes, we’ve seen very little about the CPU, I think most of the focus has been on the GPU side. One guy on this forum did have a breakdown on the GPU design last night. I can’t remember which page that was on though
The CPU has already been decently extrapolated by the tech heads of the thread, it's expected to be on par with Zen 2 IPC but obviously lower clocked. Overall not a bad fit, although it is more of a bottleneck than the amazing GPU we're getting that is.
 
I'm well versed in Dragonball, but I've never heard at least half these forms. I'm assuming They're from the most recent movie?
Orange Piccolo: most recent movie
Cell MAX: most recent movie
Ultra Instinct Goku: Super tv series
Purple haired receding hair line no eye brow Vegeta: Super manga
Beast Gohan: most recent movie
Black Freeza: Super manga
Beerus: DBZ Battle of Gods movie
Angels: Super tv series (Whis was introduced in BoG but still)
Zeno: Super tv series

I am a dork
 
I mean... it's compact compared to a PS4 I suppose... I don't think compact = handheld.

The Steam Deck isn't a handheld; it's too big to just carry around everywhere like you would your phone or a DS or something. But... it does fit in your hands. I think that warrants it being compact, considering what the full package of the Deck is capable of. And if speculation is to believed, the Switch 2 is still gonna be smaller than the Deck.
yeahhh but the next sentence compares it to handheld PCs
 
Is there anything from these recent findings that would have the potential to change John’s mind on the matter? I’ve not dug into things yet but I got the impression we’d only found out about RAM and Storage.

So far from everything that has been gathered on Switch 2.
The information just points to T239 and Orin taking different development paths, to where it shares more in common with its TSMC 4N siblings vs Ampere products on Samsung's 8N.

I think for anyone that might be confused on why wouldn’t they just choose Lovelace over Ampere.
We have a very similar situation in front of us right now where Sony is using some Frankenstein version of RDNA 1.5(with many RDNA 2 features added on) versus Microsoft that waited for RDNA 2.

The differences between the 2 aren't large enough for anyone on the average gaming level to care about. Also going with Ampere as the base architecture probably ensured Nintendo that they could have very advanced development tools for their 1st and 3rd party partners.
We saw how much this truly hindered Microsoft this generation, they still aren't delivering games at a steady clip...

Becuase it will be cheaper

I know other people have stated this already but whatever Nintendo would save going with 8N, they would then lose that value in needing a larger battery, more aggressive cooling solution (in handheld and docked) and the sheer density alone of TSMC's 4N makes up the price differences.

Fami -> Necrolipe -> Fami

Re: extra cooling required - if that's about the 2nd fan in dock, LiC had since found evidence that makes him feel fairly confident dock will have only 1 fan.

Hidden content is only available for registered users. Sharing it outside of Famiboards is subject to moderation.
 
I get you don't think that a device this size is properly a "portable" and I don't disagree with you, but "smallest handheld of a generation with a shitton of handhelds" is certainly worth calling compact in a paragraph when I'm explicitly comparing handhelds.

Big-screen-itis sucked for phones and it sucks here too, but a 13% growth in size is an almost comical amount of restraint for a portable device over 7 years. In the same time, the iPhone has gone up by 20% in size, and 30% weight.
I see what you mean but the dimensions are only slightly smaller than a steam deck, so I think delineating the intent to design a compact device is at the very least premature

put another way, it doesn't seem to me like they went about designing a compact device even compared to the handheld PC segment
 
Two months is cutting it way too close, everything about the system would have leaked by that point. And I don't just mean specs, I mean pictures and videos and games. Nintendo regards the Switch as being announced in 2015 (just look at the Furukawa tweet) and we're already way past that.
oh right he did say that, so we could still have a Sept/Oct reveal and release in March making it much less time from when the NX was first mentioned
 
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kek.png
sigh
Context: This is in Nintendo's newer package management tool for developers (called NNPM - Nintendo Package Manager), which released about 8 months ago and replaces the old NDI (Nintendo Dev Interface) tool. There's a solid possibility it's either a placeholder or some type of bait (it means something along the lines of "unknown" in Japanese, don't remember exactly what).

Edit: it's "plain"
 
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So since the RAM bandwidth is pretty fast, it stands to reason that Nintendo would want the GPU/CPU to be pretty fast too right? So they have to be on the higher end clocks? Otherwise it might seem like a waste to have high bandwidth in the first place if the other components can't utilize it to its fullest.

Orange Piccolo: most recent movie
Cell MAX: most recent movie
Ultra Instinct Goku: Super tv series
Purple haired receding hair line no eye brow Vegeta: Super manga
Beast Gohan: most recent movie
Black Freeza: Super manga
Beerus: DBZ Battle of Gods movie
Angels: Super tv series (Whis was introduced in BoG but still)
Zeno: Super tv series

I am a dork

Thank you.
 
Please read this staff post before posting.

Furthermore, according to this follow-up post, all off-topic chat will be moderated.
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