SiG
Chain Chomp
I feel like people are just grasping on straws at this point.
People are just thirsty for some (good) Nintendo news, and they'll take any sign.
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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
- Start date
People are just thirsty for some (good) Nintendo news, and they'll take any sign.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
To be fair this is the type of leak (if you can call it that) which we do occasionally find to be legit later on. The Switch Lite shell leak was also laughed off as being from some random Asian twitter account.
At least this guy is supposedly a retail buyer.
At least this guy is supposedly a retail buyer.
NateDrake
Chain Chomp
But what's the leak?
"Nintendo is relentless" can mean anything from software production, leak security, etc...
Hosermess
Koopa
What could relation to the meeting possibly mean for the Direct though? All 6 Directors are up for re-election. The Directors for the Audit and Supervisory Committee are not related at all to anything in the Direct. Neither are stock grants and distribution of surplus. I mean, if you want to get a wild theory started...is a current member of the Board of Directors stepping down? And would it be announced during the Direct? lol
I agree that the account is legit, but like Nate said, it hasn't said anything that deserves all the coverage, It's too vague to be worthwhile, and the account being a retail buyer, I don't think they'll ever release something that could give them trouble.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
There isn't really a leak, like I said. There seems to be some not so subtle hinting at Nintendo having something big to announce soon, but that could definitely just be referring to a Direct. But then again he also seems to make mention of not believing "it" will be at the Direct. So who the hell knows. It would be nice if a native speaker could clear any of this up.
But the reason it's interesting is because it's the type of thing we might be able to look back at after something is announced and realize that it is indeed what this guy was talking about.
Personally I'd say the chances of it releasing in 2022 have not changed between January 1st 2022 and today.
Serif
𝕽𝖊𝖓𝖊𝖌𝖆𝖉𝖊 𝕬𝖓𝖌𝖊𝖑
So what's the context for why this account brings up Xenoblade performance? Feels out of the blue.
And Nintendo being 'able to afford it' - could they still be referring to a software release here? Or would it be the cost of manufacturing Drake?
That and the random invocation of Xenoblade is why I my mind wants to drift towards hardware. Of course, I'm reading this with the inherent bias of being aware of the Nvidia leak and devkits so I really don't have a clue.
Klax0nKlax0ff
Piranha Plant
- Pronouns
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Isn’t the real “leak” in that Twitter account that they allude to being able to play Xenoblade on better hardware? The references are oblique and who knows how mangled the translation is but in context, the “it” being referred to seems like a more powerful Switch.
Now, it could be complete nonsense. And everyone’s starved for news so they’re jumping on anything. But it’s the kind of random info that sometimes turns out to be legit down the line. I guess the “leak” would be that a more powerful Switch is out there and more people are hearing about it.
Now, it could be complete nonsense. And everyone’s starved for news so they’re jumping on anything. But it’s the kind of random info that sometimes turns out to be legit down the line. I guess the “leak” would be that a more powerful Switch is out there and more people are hearing about it.
Just wanted to reiterate that I shared those tweets to facilitate fun speculations on an internet forum. Are there any "outlets" actually reporting this?
On the flip side, there is a Japanese gaming blog randomly attributed a bunch of Drake specs to you, and other outlets regurgitated the same misinformation. Screenshot via Google translation (source):
Note that they took a screenshot of your unrelated post from April as a proof. Time is a flat circle.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I'm wondering how much of this misinformation is further fueled by the fact that his user name is Nate DrakeJust wanted to reiterate that I shared those tweets to facilitate fun speculations on an internet forum. Are there any "outlets" actually reporting this?
On the flip side, there is a Japanese gaming blog randomly attributed a bunch of Drake specs to you, and other outlets regurgitated the same misinformation. Screenshot via Google translation (source):
Note that they took a screenshot of your unrelated post from April as a proof. Time is a flat circle.
Did anyone actually cover this?
D
Deleted member 341
Guest
Nate was the Drake the whole time. The Nintendo "Drake" posted AI generated Nintendo leaks to hype the fanbase.
It even faked a Podcast and several Twitter accounts. AI is crazy nowadays.
Nate the literal Drake. We were so blind.
It even faked a Podcast and several Twitter accounts. AI is crazy nowadays.
Nate the literal Drake. We were so blind.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
No wonder nobody has ever seen his face...
NateDrake
Chain Chomp
Just wanted to reiterate that I shared those tweets to facilitate fun speculations on an internet forum. Are there any "outlets" actually reporting this?
On the flip side, there is a Japanese gaming blog randomly attributed a bunch of Drake specs to you, and other outlets regurgitated the same misinformation. Screenshot via Google translation (source):
Note that they took a screenshot of your unrelated post from April as a proof. Time is a flat circle.
What the hell lol
It's been prime YT fodder.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I'm surprised that's the part that's been latched onto. The whole thing is a lot more interesting than "Nintendo is relentless".
Possibly (likely) nothing, but still kinda interesting.
LiC
Member
This again seems like a non sequitur. By law they have to do this meeting every year and let people with shares vote on executive positions and give comment. What is on the official schedule for this particular meeting has nothing to do with why people think it's significant. I don't personally think this will happen, but the point is that it's an opportunity to either announce or follow-up an announcement for new hardware, which they have in fact done at these meetings before, and the proximity to a Direct is also unusual leading to speculation about that.
“Nintendo is relentless” is good clickbait, you got to admit.
- Pronouns
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I dunno, it's pretty meaningless. Especially out of context but even in context.
LiC
Member
I mean, the Q&As can be good for a laugh because the shmucks with 1 share who get in there sometimes ask pretty ridiculous questions.
But no, again I personally don't think there's any significance re: hardware for the timing of the meeting/Direct and I don't believe the meeting is a good place to announce hardware. And the only historical precedent is like, following up on hardware plans and explaining things in the Q&A. Technically, announcements have happened (3DS XL or N3DS XL? I don't remember), but those weren't even at the annual meetings, just one of the quarterly ones.
TonyBaduy
Moblin
- Pronouns
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Well, Nate not knowing doesn't necessarily mean it isn't going to be shown this month, but it makes it less likely. I guess Nintendo could opt to show it in July (why not do it in this Direct though? It'd be jumping extra hoops for the same result), August or September, that's if they want to launch it this CY. I find it unlikely that they'll tease it before Black Friday and show it in January again though, as that could eat into their Switch sales, but I also find it unlikely they'd just reveal out of nowhere 3 months before it's released. It worked last time because the Wii U was dead so they had no sales to lose (and the 3DS was a handheld, while the Switch is marketed as a home console). We'll have to wait and see what they do, but at least we know when the Direct is, so we have something concrete to look forward to, even if it doesn't contain new hardware.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I never made a video attributing any of that to Drake. That's not how Nate would handle things, it would be within the post like all the rest.
That being said, I did make a video on the tweets posted here because like the guy who posted it said - it's fun speculation, so why not? People sometimes take things a little too serious. I would never expect to see it posted at legit news areas as news...
but you know, tomorrow those tweets will magically make it to IGN.
That’s the whole point. You click to learn the context, and by the time you find out it’s meaningless you will have watched the entire video.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Oh damn! Mind blown.
Look over there
Bob-omb
And some updates from TSMC on their roadmap:
www.anandtech.com
N2's offering a not-so-encouraging chip density (that is, mixed) improvement of at least 1.1x over N3E. N3E itself offers ~1.3x chip/mixed density improvement over N5. According to those articles, mixed should be defined as 50% logic/30% sram/20% analog. Referencing the five N3 processes article, N3E offers 1.6x logic density improvement over N5, while base N3 offers 1.7x logic density improvement against N5. Probably fair to infer that N2's offering logic density improvement in the neighborhood of 1.2-1.3x then?
Maybe TSMC's deliberately attempting only so much since N2 will be the first GAAFET node as well as first with new power delivery. Which would be fair; being overly ambitious in one shot is potentially disastrous (see Intel's adventures with 10nm). Still, that does extend the amount of time one needs to wait for big density gains given the pace.
...oh, I guess that's (partly?) why there's been such movement towards multi chip designs.
As far as relating this back to Nintendo goes, my concern is the impact on time and cost on a potential post-Drake mobile oriented device. Particularly, the GPU-side; how much you can theoretically further crank up the SM count and when you can do so while keeping die size within acceptable range. On the plus side, 8k resolution probably won't be taking off anytime soon, so the next raw-GPU-grunt threshold is really what, satisfying RT capability?
TSMC to Expand Capacity for Mature and Specialty Nodes by 50%
N2's offering a not-so-encouraging chip density (that is, mixed) improvement of at least 1.1x over N3E. N3E itself offers ~1.3x chip/mixed density improvement over N5. According to those articles, mixed should be defined as 50% logic/30% sram/20% analog. Referencing the five N3 processes article, N3E offers 1.6x logic density improvement over N5, while base N3 offers 1.7x logic density improvement against N5. Probably fair to infer that N2's offering logic density improvement in the neighborhood of 1.2-1.3x then?
Maybe TSMC's deliberately attempting only so much since N2 will be the first GAAFET node as well as first with new power delivery. Which would be fair; being overly ambitious in one shot is potentially disastrous (see Intel's adventures with 10nm). Still, that does extend the amount of time one needs to wait for big density gains given the pace.
...oh, I guess that's (partly?) why there's been such movement towards multi chip designs.
As far as relating this back to Nintendo goes, my concern is the impact on time and cost on a potential post-Drake mobile oriented device. Particularly, the GPU-side; how much you can theoretically further crank up the SM count and when you can do so while keeping die size within acceptable range. On the plus side, 8k resolution probably won't be taking off anytime soon, so the next raw-GPU-grunt threshold is really what, satisfying RT capability?
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I've still got my fingers crossed that we see something soon.
Before news of the Direct’s atypical time - just before/around the shareholder meeting - would have assumed that they'd announce hardware in July after the Direct. The thinking here being that they'd want to distance talk of new hardware to avoid confusion around what system any games are for; They'll all be for 2017 Switch - no ambiguity.
If it does show up during the Direct, it could end up being a 'one-last-thing' tease for a future showcase to be set at a later date: “Here’s a sneak peak at the next product in the Switch family - take a look.” Followed by “Please look forward to when we share more news on _____ very soon.”
I’m sure somebody in here is going to say (or has already said) the shareholder meeting means nothing. I’m going to remain hopeful until the Direct passes or Nate brutally shuts us all down. >:-]
Before news of the Direct’s atypical time - just before/around the shareholder meeting - would have assumed that they'd announce hardware in July after the Direct. The thinking here being that they'd want to distance talk of new hardware to avoid confusion around what system any games are for; They'll all be for 2017 Switch - no ambiguity.
If it does show up during the Direct, it could end up being a 'one-last-thing' tease for a future showcase to be set at a later date: “Here’s a sneak peak at the next product in the Switch family - take a look.” Followed by “Please look forward to when we share more news on _____ very soon.”
I’m sure somebody in here is going to say (or has already said) the shareholder meeting means nothing. I’m going to remain hopeful until the Direct passes or Nate brutally shuts us all down. >:-]
Mr Swine
Like Like
- Pronouns
- He
And some updates from TSMC on their roadmap:
TSMC to Expand Capacity for Mature and Specialty Nodes by 50%
N2's offering a not-so-encouraging chip density (that is, mixed) improvement of at least 1.1x over N3E. N3E itself offers ~1.3x chip/mixed density improvement over N5. According to those articles, mixed should be defined as 50% logic/30% sram/20% analog. Referencing the five N3 processes article, N3E offers 1.6x logic density improvement over N5, while base N3 offers 1.7x logic density improvement against N5. Probably fair to infer that N2's offering logic density improvement in the neighborhood of 1.2-1.3x then?
Maybe TSMC's deliberately attempting only so much since N2 will be the first GAAFET node as well as first with new power delivery. Which would be fair; being overly ambitious in one shot is potentially disastrous (see Intel's adventures with 10nm). Still, that does extend the amount of time one needs to wait for big density gains given the pace.
...oh, I guess that's (partly?) why there's been such movement towards multi chip designs.
As far as relating this back to Nintendo goes, my concern is the impact on time and cost on a potential post-Drake mobile oriented device. Particularly, the GPU-side; how much you can theoretically further crank up the SM count and when you can do so while keeping die size within acceptable range. On the plus side, 8k resolution probably won't be taking off anytime soon, so the next raw-GPU-grunt threshold is really what, satisfying RT capability?
This is going to be a problem for not only mobile chipset but even desktop Chipset. desktop parts are only going to get hungrier/thirstier and require more power and even if a multiple chiplet design might mitigate that, it will creep back up again.
Look over there
Bob-omb
Multi chip's purpose isn't really to address power (if anything, implementations so far have increased power draw when all else is equal*?). IIRC, the approach's main benefits is to evade the physical size limit of a single die as well as improve yields (it should be easier to accrue multiple smaller chips/tiles than it is to nail a big monolithic die).
*main example I'm thinking of is chiplet Zen versus monolithic Zen. There is a noticable increase in uncore power consumption, and I'm not sure if that's 100% attributable to the IO die being made on an older node. Some of it's gotta be that infinity fabric, right? Especially since AM5 is still allocating +35% headroom for total package power and the IO die for that should be N6.
*main example I'm thinking of is chiplet Zen versus monolithic Zen. There is a noticable increase in uncore power consumption, and I'm not sure if that's 100% attributable to the IO die being made on an older node. Some of it's gotta be that infinity fabric, right? Especially since AM5 is still allocating +35% headroom for total package power and the IO die for that should be N6.
TonyBaduy
Moblin
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Teasing it at the end would cause everyone to flip a table, I think it'd be better to start with it lol
LiC
Member
They're not going to "tease" anything. Believing hardware can be treated like a software title, either in terms of production or reveal/marketing, is one of the problems with a lot of speculation on the new model. Including, in my opinion, the idea that it's particularly likely/possible to be part of a Direct in the first place.
Blue Monty
Inkling
- Pronouns
- he/him
Uncle Squingis
Shriekbat
When do you think it launches? If it's March 2023 then seeing it this early is not happening. We didn't see OG Switch until 6 months prior to release.
ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Should be noted that MCM has no real place in the console Space anymore or anytime soon, the cost of it is massive and just not worth it for the target that consoles aim for.
Not really sure why anyone would be surprised when these exact same outlets treat zippo and newmarkomaro as credible sources tbh.
LiC
Member
I think the strategy of the 3DS era when that happened is well over and done with. There weren't even worldwide launches of the hardware back then.
OP
OP
And some updates from TSMC on their roadmap:
TSMC to Expand Capacity for Mature and Specialty Nodes by 50%
N2's offering a not-so-encouraging chip density (that is, mixed) improvement of at least 1.1x over N3E. N3E itself offers ~1.3x chip/mixed density improvement over N5. According to those articles, mixed should be defined as 50% logic/30% sram/20% analog. Referencing the five N3 processes article, N3E offers 1.6x logic density improvement over N5, while base N3 offers 1.7x logic density improvement against N5. Probably fair to infer that N2's offering logic density improvement in the neighborhood of 1.2-1.3x then?
Maybe TSMC's deliberately attempting only so much since N2 will be the first GAAFET node as well as first with new power delivery. Which would be fair; being overly ambitious in one shot is potentially disastrous (see Intel's adventures with 10nm). Still, that does extend the amount of time one needs to wait for big density gains given the pace.
...oh, I guess that's (partly?) why there's been such movement towards multi chip designs.
As far as relating this back to Nintendo goes, my concern is the impact on time and cost on a potential post-Drake mobile oriented device. Particularly, the GPU-side; how much you can theoretically further crank up the SM count and when you can do so while keeping die size within acceptable range. On the plus side, 8k resolution probably won't be taking off anytime soon, so the next raw-GPU-grunt threshold is really what, satisfying RT capability?
I think the marginal density, performance, and power efficiency improvements from TSMC's N3 process node family and TSMC's N2 process node in comparison to TSMC's N5 process node family is an indication that nobody should expect huge performance and power efficiency gains for hardware going forward without also expecting large price increases. In other words, after Nintendo releases a hybrid console equipped with Drake, don't expect any more than marginal performance and power efficiency improvements without having to pay more money. I think Arm's CPU peak performance chart from Arm Vision Day 2021 is a good visual indication of what to expect in terms of performance and power efficiency gains, realistically speaking (after the Cortex-A78).
- Pronouns
- He/Him
That would be the greatest "one last thing" since the 2018 Smash Bros reveal.
- Pronouns
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I mean, no matter how Nintendo announces the device, it's going to be one of the best announcements in recent memory - that's how much I want an upgrade lol
Twitter seems too unceremonious for it to me. At the same time, opening a Direct that's largely a pitch for existing Switch titles seems like confusing messaging. A capstone to the Direct sounds just right...
...but what do I know. Please get this Direct over with Nintendo so I can stop daydreaming :-[
SpaceGodzilla
Did You Get that Thing I Sent You?
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- him
I just want to play age of calamity with a stable framerate
- Pronouns
- He/Him
It's certainly possible - I think that's what they did for the OLED as well. They have a bit more to explain about this one than those two I'm sure, but nothing that couldn't actually fit into a couple minute trailer.
Look over there
Bob-omb
Primarily it's the density gains that look like they're starting to diminish with today's announcements.
Note: N2 is expected to start volume production in 2H of 2025; so products probably won't be expected until 2026. So this is mainly a post-Drake concern.
Energy efficiency gains/Dennard scaling actually broke down on us back in the 2000's, I hear? Anyway, N3->N2's -25-30% power actually lines up with N5->N3. And in turn, they're not too far off of N7->N5's -30% power. So energy efficiency improvement is still...uh, stable for the time being.
Going back to density, this is kind of startling. To recap for the readers, generally, the foundry charges you a price by the wafer, right? So effectively, you're paying by area. And wafer costs climb along with the R&D costs that go into each successive node. But if the rate at which transistor density improves slows down significantly, that really screws with the transistor/$ proposition going forward.
By the way folks, what's something that historically scaled very well by lobbing more transistors at them? Graphics processing
True! And given that priority...
Going forward, how do traditional consoles continue to offer the expected 'generational' improvements in an economically viable manner? Perf/transistor (or perf/area, whichever you prefer) needs to see massive gains. In the high end productions, boom, native rendering dies, the age of advanced upscaling techniques being required begins.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Actually, with the insane amounts of DMCAs and lack of info might be a hood thing. It means Nintendo has the info locked down tight for an announcement. I mean what would they do with this hardware, they can't wait another year, they have to take advantage of the amount of the games they are releasing! They also DMCAed a Nintendo Switch 4k game upscaler days ago that got annouced in April lol.
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