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Define "leaks". We have had a couple potential factory leaks over the past few months that nobody seems to be willing to even entertain oddly enough.
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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
- Start date
Dekuman
Starman
- Pronouns
- He/Him/His
Yeah if its coming spring 2023 a fall reveal is possible as to not mislead consumers going into the holiday. They will take a hit in sales for it.
I know the counter argument for a bait and Switch seems compelling but that's a one time deal, break the trust and you lose the customer forever.
I know the counter argument for a bait and Switch seems compelling but that's a one time deal, break the trust and you lose the customer forever.
9 months in advance I'm looking for something a little stronger than an easily fakeable factory leak from some sketchy forum in China. We had so many leaks coming out at this point before the switch released. Same with the PS5 and Xbox. You cant hide something like a new console launch. We should be hearing about games coming to it, hearing about part orders, hearing rumors about the name and so many other things. But we're hearing nothing. We're getting far fewer leaks for this than for the switch pro which didn't even happen.
That message alone will start a new discussion of 2 pages
It's not just about consumer trust either. If you're launching a new console you want a massive marketing campaign. You want people talking about it, getting the name out there. Just dumping it out there a month after reveal risks a Wii U situation where a lot of people don't even realize you have a new product. The idea of a one month reveal of a new console is ludicrous. These short reveal to release cycles work for revisions like an OLED or lite because you're selling these mostly as rebuys to existing customers who are deeply hooked into the ecosystem already. To reel in the broader market you gotta go big time.
Dark Cloud
Warpstar Knight
If it’s coming in spring 2023, honestly maybe it’s just not going to be March. March is always the expectation because of fiscal year ending. Maybe it’ll be April or May.
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I wonder how good the RT cores are with Physics.
I know they are supposed to be for Light physics, but surely they can be applied for another physics based scenario rather than relying on the CPU to do it right
I’d guess that, since Drake would have a weaker CPU than the other consoles it would rely on other tricks to relieve some aspects of it.
I think with Witcher 3 Switch they offloaded portions of the CPU work to the GPU, and the GPU having RT cores is what spawned this curiosity of mine.
Would mean though that there would be reduced RT going on I suppose?
I know they are supposed to be for Light physics, but surely they can be applied for another physics based scenario rather than relying on the CPU to do it right
I’d guess that, since Drake would have a weaker CPU than the other consoles it would rely on other tricks to relieve some aspects of it.
I think with Witcher 3 Switch they offloaded portions of the CPU work to the GPU, and the GPU having RT cores is what spawned this curiosity of mine.
Would mean though that there would be reduced RT going on I suppose?
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Pretty sure we heard absolutely nothing about the Switch until July 2016.
Rogue Agent
Octorok
It's stupid to dismiss those potential factory leaks and then claim that we've had no leaks. They might be obscure and possibly fake, but they're still leaks.
Dark Cloud
Warpstar Knight
It’s more like not the kind of leak some people want.
If we don't get a new Nvidia data breach every months then we can safely assume that the T239 hardware was canceled and has been replaced by a new project that will hopefully be released around 2025.
RT cores aren't about light physics, it's about seeing what happens when a generated ray hits something or not. light, audio, physical objects can make use of it. there were experiments with using RT for cloth physics that I posted a long time ago, for example
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You joke but people are now really considering late 2024 to be “earliest release of Switch 2”
What SoC has been in development for so long that it takes 5-6 years to develop when it’s derived from an existing microarchitecture?
People take the comments to news outlets about “wanting to reimagine the console lifecycle ^_^” as some gospel as if they will reveal anything in some news outlet.
I only used “light physics” as a catchall since that is what people think about when they hear “Ray Tracing”
BlueManifest
Bob-omb
If the deck only averages 1 to 1.3 Tflops and it’s using some very recent mobile gpu makes me doubt the specs people are coming up with in here for the new switch like 2 and 3 Tflops
Don’t see a new switch coming out just 1 year after the deck and doubling the decks power esp for the same price or less
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That’s….not how the math works.
BlueManifest
Bob-omb
You know what I mean though
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No I don’t, because it doesn’t make sense
BlueManifest
Bob-omb
I’m just talking about how the numbers look on paperNo I don’t, because it doesn’t make sense
BlueManifest
Bob-omb
I think we are either
1 way over estimating the new switch graphical potential
2 wrong that the new switch is a hybrid console, it’s actually a stationary console aimed at people that want current switch games in 4k
3 or we are way off on the next switch release date and it’s late 2024 at the earliest
I think it’s one of these
1 way over estimating the new switch graphical potential
2 wrong that the new switch is a hybrid console, it’s actually a stationary console aimed at people that want current switch games in 4k
3 or we are way off on the next switch release date and it’s late 2024 at the earliest
I think it’s one of these
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You're also missing the fact that ARM is significantly more power efficient than x86.
BlueManifest
Bob-omb
Yea that’s why it uses a smaller battery
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What uses a smaller battery? I'm confused, we know virtually nothing about Drake besides the SM count, I'm not sure how you can really draw many conclusions about how it compares to Steam Deck from that alone.
davec00ke
Octorok
ARM can't perform miracles.
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This adds nothing to the conversation.
brainchild
Moblin
RT effects have secondary buffers that DLSS doesn't take into account, so there isn't much context to their inclusion in the input, which can make them difficult to integrate, but as I mentioned before, this is why devs shouldn't expect DLSS to do all of the work for them. You will have to manually tweak it, depending on your game.
It just got a ray tracing upgrade and I toggled the setting before taking screenshots to make sure the ray tracing was active. The semi-transparent reflections you see in those screens are ray traced.
BlueManifest
Bob-omb
I know I’m just saying on paper
I don’t see a new hybrid switch coming out just 1 year after the deck and having double or more the Tflops on paper than the deck
And double the on screen performance
If the new switch is a hybrid and is releasing in less than a year I see like 700-800 gflops portable and 1.4 - 1.7 Tflops docked
12sm gpu will be lower clock than current switch for battery life
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The reason why I said it doesn’t make sense, is that you’re comparing apples to oranges. The reason the steam deck struggles to hit the 1.6 GHz/TFLOP Number is due to other factors.
It has 4 x86_64 CPU cores that have simultaneous multithreading enabled. Valve hard limited the steam deck to go no higher than 15W for the APU, if there was no limit I’m pretty sure the steam deck would tap out at 1.6 Tflop and 3.5 GHz with SMT enabled for the CPU, like other gaming laptops out there.
now, the steam deck numbers that were posted were averaging between 1 and 1.3 Tflop of GPU compute, right? Let’s look at what the steam deck GPU even is first of all, it has eight compute units which is equal to 512 shaders. Drake on the other hand is supposed to have 1536 shaders and has 12 streaming multi processors. Drake will literally have to be clocked below the switch frequency in portable mode to reach the lowest bound number of the steam deck which is the 1 TFLOP.
To match the 1.3TFLOP number, it has to be clocked slightly higher than the switch in portable mode at 433MHz or so.
Now let’s look at the CPU, x86 CPUs are not all comparable to ARM CPUs with respect to performance per watt, what am I getting at? Comparing these two was already a mistake.
And finally, I understand that these devices throttle, but there are phones that can do the on paper TFLOPs above what the SD can do for ages now.
Literally all wrong but ok.
No one said anything about miracles, please stay on task.
Instro
Like Like
We didn't get the detailed hardware leak until then, but there was definitely bits of info being leaked/rumored in the first half of that year. Both software and hardware, coming from people like Emily, etc. That said, we also know that a number of people like Laura Kate Dale, and others who were active around that time, got burned pretty badly on a bunch of their rumors and seemingly don't engage in it any more. Liam seems to have stopped after the Star Fox debacle. Imran and Emily are significantly less active than they used to be in the rumor department as well. A lot of other lesser known leakers, or ones that were more dubious like Vergeben for example, have also kind of disappeared during COVID.
Just in general, for various reasons, there's definitely a lot less activity in the Nintendo leak game than there used to be, so it's hard to compare back to the WiiU and Switch era and guess whether there "should" be more rumors by now. Particularly after what happened last year with the OLED. Even when people do have some info they often seem less inclined to talk than in years past due to blowback from gamers.
Tentacle-tropes
Kremling
I expect the same time frame as the original Switch so somewhere within ~5 months announce to release with marketing picking up about ~1-2 months before release. I don’t expect them to do a long belabored marketing campaign for it.
BlueManifest
Bob-omb
Let’s just say I don’t see the on screen performance being much different than the deck if it only releases 1 year later and it’s still a hybrid
D
Deleted member 2548
Guest
If they're fake, they aren't leaks, but rather just rumors.
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That's why I like the phrase "potential leak".
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I’m trying to understand why it being released one year later matters, the steam deck is a laptop APU fit it into a console-like form factor, it’s not some marvel of achievement
A low end laptop performance mind you.
BlueManifest
Bob-omb
Just the fact that it’s mobile hardware with alot of current gen parts, and the new switch is also mobile with potentially current gen parts
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This doesn’t make sense.
I understand it’s an opinion, but opinions are based off of factual information, it’s how one formulates an opinion. The information that you seem to be giving is not factual therefore it is why I’m trying to make sense out of your opinion and how you came to the conclusion that you did, nothing more.
BlueManifest
Bob-omb
I’m going by the on paper and on screen performance of the deck those are facts, that just came out not long ago
A new switch won’t come out just 1 year later and have double the on screen performance, whatever flop performance the new switch needs to be twice as strong it’s not going to have it
It's most probably not, and I can already smell the hectoliters of copium being inhaled from September onwards. "Plans must have changed", "something definitely happened behind the scenes", "fucking monkeypox delayed our Drake" etc.
On the other hand, I'll gladly be proven wrong on the internet and I'll be the first in line to buy a new powerful switch releasing within 12 months. But I do not believe it will happen. I think that Nintendo plans to give at least 2 full years to the OLED model.
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I already discussed it here why this is wrong: https://famiboards.com/threads/futu...t-drake-tape-me-out-to-denmark.55/post-251630
The math is not mathing here, it being double the paper performance 1 year after release isn’t some impossibility. You’re making it seem like it’s impossible because the steam deck doesn’t do it, the apples to orange comparison.
And as I said,
Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
We're about to enter June and still no leaks or talk from Nintendo about new hardware. If it's coming March 2023 then we're about 9 months away. Seems like we should be hearing about it by now. Define "leaks". We have had a couple potential factory leaks over the past few months that nobody...
famiboards.com
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
Did we have a lot of leaks? I just rewatched Nintendolife's "rumors and leaks" summary for the NX from January of 2016 (10 months out) and it's basically... nothing? There are 5 patents, 4 of which are not the Switch - including the cartridge patent! The community guessed that the Switch used cartridges based on this patent, except this patent specifically refers to a system of syncing cartridge input with a much slower magnetic HDD, which isn't in the Switch
There was also a leak of a deal to purchase Samsung displays, which most people thought made it clear that it was a hybrid except... Samsung didn't manufacture the OG Switch LCD at all, so this appears to be either a fake leak or a different Nintendo deal that was unrelated to the switch.
Basically, the rumors about a hybrid model came from the same sort of media sources that have talked about a 4k Switch, and a number of other pieces of data seemed to confirm, but that was mostly just coincidence. A lot of very incorrect speculation came out as well built around the same sets of patents and technology "rumors" - like "matching the PS4 in performance". Fake name leaks, and fake leaks about Mario games that didn't exist, and not a lot else.
None of this is surprising, because Nintendo announced the codename of the NX in 2015 and started chatter about a Wii U replacement very early. The media was grasping at everything and the community was eating it up. As of 9 months out, the only data about the Switch that was genuine we seemed to have was a single patent that confirmed a media rumor. There was a lot of noise though, but that noise was about the media environment at the time, not about the actual state of the hardware or the software.
We're not in that media environment. The clickbait media is burnt out on Pro chatter, and Nintendo has been mum. Perhaps that's because you're right, and nothing is coming... or because it's a revision and they don't want to undermine the existing market by having people expect a successor, stop buying Switches, and then get disappointed by a revision announcement.
We didn't start getting truly solid Switch info till July 2016, and even in that case we were talking about Tegra X2 instead of the X1
I think fundamentally we disagree on what is coming. You seem to believe that Nintendo's next device is a successor designed to supercede the switch, and that device isn't coming soon.
I agree it's a successor isn't coming soon, but I think Nintendo's next device is going to be marketed as a Switch revision, ala the New 3DS - or even the Lite/OLED. Which saw some rumors, but only one proper "leak" apiece - namely the backplate for the lite and the existence of the OLED at all, which was mixed up with pro chatter.
Yes, exactly. I think this is going to target folks who already own Switches, or hardcore gamers who haven't bought a Switch yet, which is Nintendo's stated plan.
For the record I'm not 100% convinced that Drake = New Switch. I'm 90% convinced, but it isn't outside the realm of possibility that the hardware defined in the NVN2 leak represents a different device, or an in progress state. Nor am I convinced that the new device is on schedule - it could be delayed.
I am convinced that the release of a DLSS capable Switch revision was planned for this fiscal year as recently as last September, and that it was sufficiently far along for Nintendo to contract devs for enhanced editions/exclusives. That matches reporting last year, which matches the NVN2 hack, which matches @kopite7kimi Nvidia leaks. And again, if it is a revision
Didn't we also get a "leak" that Nintendo took devkits away from devs, with projects incomplete? If we're going to treat all rumors as possibilities, let's give credence to the ones that don't fit our narrative too
Bob is right that we haven't recently seen a series of leaks that are mutually consistent. We haven't seen a whole lot at all, but again, I'm not expecting anything. It's boring, sure, but that's what Mario Strikers is for. I don't blame anyone for disbelieving in the launch of a new device in the next 9 months, but the absence of evidence isn't evidence of absence - not when we have evidence of existence.
This is what I'd believe too if I don't want to be disappointed in case nothing happens, but tbh from what we had from the Nvidia leak it doesn't seem to be a reasonable expectation.
Rogue Agent
Octorok
I don't think I've heard of that one. I'm not saying that the potential factory leak is real and that it means we'll get the new Switch soon. I just mean that we shouldn't just use confirmation bias to concoct a narrative that we haven't got any leaks recently at all. We don't know if that potential factory leak is fake or real, but it's still a leak that we've gotten.Didn't we also get a "leak" that Nintendo took devkits away from devs, with projects incomplete? If we're going to treat all rumors as possibilities, let's give credence to the ones that don't fit our narrative too
I'm not expecting anything either but maybe there are reasons why we haven't gotten many reports. Look at last year when we got more OLED rumours during and before May. Perhaps this whole subject has just become so toxic and that's why we aren't getting many reports but that's just speculation based on Bloomberg's mixing up of info last year. My confidence in getting something this fiscal year is based on devkits being out a long time and that hasn't been disproven yet. As long as we get something, no matter how obscure, I think it just means that something may be happening this fiscal year, even if we're not getting consistent leaks.
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IIRC that came from Moore's Law Is Dead who has a pretty awful track record, and unless I'm mistaken is known to blatantly make stuff up. Granted, we know nothing about the "factory uncle's" track record either.Didn't we also get a "leak" that Nintendo took devkits away from devs, with projects incomplete? If we're going to treat all rumors as possibilities, let's give credence to the ones that don't fit our narrative too
Also them taking away devkits could just as easily be a sign of them cracking down on leaks as it is of them cancelling a product. I'm not sure why it was perceived as the latter but couldn't possibly be the former.
Look over there
Bob-omb
Speaking of the Steam Deck, that reminds me, I need a quick refresh on RDNA2.
RDNA2 brought feature set updates for DirectX 12 Ultimate compliance and much improved energy efficiency/higher-clocks-given-same-energy. The discrete cards got that big ol' chunk of 'Infinite Cache', but not the integrated graphics. So, setting aside the IC, for the APUs, was there anything that bumped up perf-per-Compute Unit-per-clock (in a non-DX12U scenario) over RDNA1?
RDNA2 brought feature set updates for DirectX 12 Ultimate compliance and much improved energy efficiency/higher-clocks-given-same-energy. The discrete cards got that big ol' chunk of 'Infinite Cache', but not the integrated graphics. So, setting aside the IC, for the APUs, was there anything that bumped up perf-per-Compute Unit-per-clock (in a non-DX12U scenario) over RDNA1?
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Sadly there is no RDNA 2 white papers, just the RDNA2 ISA papers.
Just judging by this slide here:
Besides the Frequency and the Infinity Cache, I’m going to assume there was a tweak to how the code path is done to allow it to do more for less, while also having the IPC increase.
I could be very wrong on this but it is simply an assumption of mine.
RDNA family, unlike the GCN family, was designed to be a powerful raster engine for game developers to make use of and for games to perform as best as they can.
Same, if there was nothing that is connected to Nintendo in the leak I would most certainly be very much concerned/confused on a 2022/2023 launch, I’d see more of a late 2024 or early 2025 launch as a certainty.
ShadowFox08
Paratroopa
I think Eurogamer was among the first to confirm the clock speeds back in December 2016.
Nintendo Switch CPU and GPU clock speeds revealed
Spec reveals are never easy. Months - sometimes years - of anticipation build after initial teasers. Rumours circulate,…
www.eurogamer.net
There might have been leaks from less reputable sources before that. I don't remember. You'd have to go back to neogaf and dig.
edit: iirc we were hearing news during the summer. Like it was going to be the TX1. I remember initial news being that it would be 1 TFLOP, but that was in fp16 (fp32 is ~500 TFLOPs), but since the 20nm mode for tx1 throttled at certain speeds due to over hearing we got working speeds of 768Mhz GPU and ~1.0GHz CPU.
Who knows what will happen now. Nintendo themselves are getting more tight lipped with their products. Devs might not start talking until the hardware gets revealed officially, because I imagine they are under strict NDA.
If we do indeed get 12SMs and say 6-8A78 CPUs, then it's very likely we'll get a smaller node that is more power efficient than Steam Deck's 7nm (12SMs would be pretty big otherwise on 8nm Samsung). I think we could get 6nm or 5nm TSMC in the best case scenario, which would make 2-3 TFLOPs possible.
Besides different nodes, completely different architectures and OS efficiencies (Nintendo will be more barebones and efficient) ARM CPU is more power efficient than AMD's Ryzen, and I'd say that might be mainly due to the former not clocking higher than 2GHz vs Ryzen Steam Deck and current gen going in the 3-3.5Ghz range.
And reaching 2-3 TFLOPs GPU would be in docked mode. Handheld will likely be around 1 TFLOPs, which on 5 or 6nm TSMC should be very feasible with at least OG switch handheld battery life.
if we look at the Orion AGX and Orion NX models (Drake seems to be in between AGX and NX with 1500 cores), getting max GPU clocks and relatively high CPU clocks around 25 watts or less should be more feasible on a 5nm/6nm die, when the Orion modules are based on 8nm Samsung and range anywhere between 10 to like 60 watt profiles (latter being the most powerful AGX Orion model).
I'm hoping for +900Mhz for the GPU cores and at least 1.5Ghz for A78 CPU clocks. 1.5Ghz A78s could actually match Steam Deck's 3.5Ghz CPU clocks performance in most cases for single thread performance if we have 7 A78s vs 3 AMD CPUs the remaining core reserved for OS). And that could put us around 2.3x power gap vs the series s, which is narrower than switch vs PS4 CPU gap (3.5x ish?).
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The Steam Deck is a very different type of machine than a traditional console that's very inefficient by design. I'd caution against trying to extrapolate too much about future Switch hardware from it.
BlueManifest
Bob-omb
Wasn’t 8nm always the rumor though?I think Eurogamer was among the first to confirm the clock speeds back in December 2016.
Nintendo Switch CPU and GPU clock speeds revealed
Spec reveals are never easy. Months - sometimes years - of anticipation build after initial teasers. Rumours circulate,…
There might have been leaks from less reputable sources before that. I don't remember. You'd have to go back to neogaf and dig.
edit: iirc we were hearing news during the summer. Like it was going to be the TX1. I remember initial news being that it would be 1 TFLOP, but that was in fp16 (fp32 is ~500 TFLOPs), but since the 20nm mode for tx1 throttled at certain speeds due to over hearing we got working speeds of 768Mhz GPU and ~1.0GHz CPU.
Who knows what will happen now. Nintendo themselves are getting more tight lipped with their products. Devs might not start talking until the hardware gets revealed officially, because I imagine they are under strict NDA.
If we do indeed get 12SMs and say 6-8A78 CPUs, then it's very likely we'll get a smaller node that is more power efficient than Steam Deck's 7nm (12SMs would be pretty big otherwise on 8nm Samsung). I think we could get 6nm or 5nm TSMC in the best case scenario, which would make 2-3 TFLOPs possible.
Besides different nodes, completely different architectures and OS efficiencies (Nintendo will be more barebones and efficient) ARM CPU is more power efficient than AMD's Ryzen, and I'd say that might be mainly due to the former not clocking higher than 2GHz vs Ryzen Steam Deck and current gen going in the 3-3.5Ghz range.
And reaching 2-3 TFLOPs GPU would be in docked mode. Handheld will likely be around 1 TFLOPs, which on 5 or 6nm TSMC should be very feasible with at least OG switch handheld battery life.
if we look at the Orion AGX and Orion NX models (Drake seems to be in between AGX and NX with 1500 cores), getting max GPU clocks and relatively high CPU clocks around 25 watts or less should be more feasible on a 5nm/6nm die, when the Orion modules are based on 8nm Samsung and range anywhere between 10 to like 60 watt profiles (latter being the most powerful AGX Orion model).
I'm hoping for +900Mhz for the GPU cores and at least 1.5Ghz for A78 CPU clocks. 1.5Ghz A78s could actually match Steam Deck's 3.5Ghz CPU clocks performance in most cases for single thread performance if we have 7 A78s vs 3 AMD CPUs the remaining core reserved for OS). And that could put us around 2.3x power gap vs the series s, which is narrower than switch vs PS4 CPU gap (3.5x ish?).
I remember everyone thought the current switch would be 12nm for sure and it ended up at 16nm
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- Pronouns
- He/Him
No, the current Switch is 12nm. The original was 20nm.
The one explicit source for 8nm seemed unsure about it after the Nvidia hack.
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