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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

It’s hard for me to reconcile

1. The Switch 2 will be extremely powerful, like 40-50% as powerful as the Series S (which probably still costs over $400 to make)
40% of series S is not even that ground breaking for an ARM SoC these days, this is just dooming for the sake of dooming

2. The Switch 2 will be a fraction of the Series S’s size and use a small fraction of its electricity.
Almost like the architecture designed for power efficiency is more power efficient, IPC is a myth fr fr ong, smaller yet very close to the series s in performance isn’t even some unprecedented task, not like the M2 already proves it’s possible to do so, a chip apple is selling in 600$ desktops with insane profit margins and a metric load of features a handheld doesn’t need in the slightest

3. The Switch 2 is either on a much worse node than the Series S or is on a node that is better, but significantly more expensive per cubic cm.
With a $400 Switch 2.
Why? Because you don’t feel like it’s possible? There are 5nm Apple TVs with similarly sized chips being sold at 130$ right now, you offer nothing to the discussion but pessimism for the sake of pessimism I am very sorry but dooming all the time doesn’t make you realistic.
 
7. There will be minimal usages of ray tracing on the Switch 2 as the system likely isn't powerful enough because 3 TFs is not that many for ray-tracing (especially once we get to 1.5 teraflops in handheld mode).
That corresponds to 3 tflops handheld and 6 tflops docked for the RT cores. By comparison, the PS5's RT accelerators only get around 320 gflops. It's not at all out of the question that not only will Switch 2 have RT as a regular feature, but that said RT could look better than on PS5 and XBSX.
 
The takes everyone gets mad at me about

1. The Switch 2 is going to be extremely powerful so I'm guessing it will be $499 based on how the Series S seems to still cost a ton of money to manufacture

2. 8nm can't be ruled out because all rumor and hack info lightly point there.

3. GTA6 will push the PS5 up to and probably past its limits and therefore would be incredibly difficult to port to Switch 2 without significant costs and Rockstar thus probably won't bother as Rockstar doesn't bother with things that cost resources that aren't GTA Online updates or the main games themselves.

4. MH Wilds and BG3 will be hard to port to the Switch 2 though both are possible (MH Wilds because Capcom has such a strong interest in bringing MH to the Switch and BG3 because it's not GPU heavy at all so I'm guessing there's some potential to move a lot of CPU functions to the GPU)

5. It's hard to tell if big budget UE5 games will run on Switch 2 as so far, UE5 games with complex assets have not run well

6. Ray reconstruction costs more than denoisers that are good enough in non-PT situations and thus is not viable on Switch 2. It could be viable if NVIDIA made a neural network that was much smaller and thus could run much faster.

7. There will be minimal usages of ray tracing on the Switch 2 as the system likely isn't powerful enough because 3 TFs is not that many for ray-tracing (especially once we get to 1.5 teraflops in handheld mode). The frequent major cuts in downports will probably be to ray-tracing and they should absolutely cut ray tracing before much more important (for marginal benefit on a 1.5 TF platform) effects such as per object motion blur.

8. Metroid Prime 4 entered the home stretch of development in Spring 2023 after they finished a huge hiring spree and games tend to take like two years to finish after this from what I can tell so I'm guessing Prime 4 is Spring 2025. If the game left pre-production September 2021, this timeline fits fairly normally.

9. The Switch 2 will have a promotional cycle like a normal console and will get a press release announcement 7-12 months before release. The system will launch in late 2024 or early 2025.

10. Due to the extremely weak yen, the Switch 2 will have a region lock to avoid exports limiting their Japanese audience. If it's literally possible to region lock only in one region, I would expect the region lock to only apply to systems sold in Japan.

IDK, these are not contrarian for the sake of it, these all seem fine.

There are Microsoft and Sega takes people are much more mad at me about, of course,
The only one I don’t really agree with is the 2025 possibility. The Switch 1 doesn’t have enough gas left in the tank to last the entirety of 2024 without its successor, especially since the only guaranteed 10+ million seller left is Pokémon.
 
Apparent info about PS5 Pro on resetera, reveal happening in September 2024. I mean there’s no way the Switch 2 is going to want to compete with that. It’s going to be coming out before September so there’s full attention on it.

The PS5 Pro is a joke SKU aimed at sickos and will probably cost $700, the Switch 2 will completely overshadow it.

The Switch 2 is arguably the most hyped console ever made.
 
Apparent info about PS5 Pro on resetera, reveal happening in September 2024. I mean there’s no way the Switch 2 is going to want to compete with that. It’s going to be coming out before September so there’s full attention on it.
2 different markets, one is a handheld one is a console. I dont think its a problem if switch 2 launches close to it. Also switch 2 will be much cheaper
 
Xbox one X launched same year as Switch and didn't affect it at all
I think they're talking about it might be more of a problem if Switch 2 launched around the same timeframe as PS5 Pro's rumored September 2024.

Your example is fine, Switch launched March 2017, while Xbox One X launched November 2017, about 8 months later.
 
7. There will be minimal usages of ray tracing on the Switch 2 as the system likely isn't powerful enough because 3 TFs is not that many for ray-tracing (especially once we get to 1.5 teraflops in handheld mode). The frequent major cuts in downports will probably be to ray-tracing and they should absolutely cut ray tracing before much more important (for marginal benefit on a 1.5 TF platform) effects such as per object motion blur.
well that's because you keep disregarding context
 
That corresponds to 3 tflops handheld and 6 tflops docked for the RT cores. By comparison, the PS5's RT accelerators only get around 320 gflops. It's not at all out of the question that not only will Switch 2 have RT as a regular feature, but that said RT could look better than on PS5 and XBSX.
Where are you getting these numbers from? I would be interested in reading more about that.
 
I think they're talking about it might be more of a problem if Switch 2 launched around the same timeframe as PS5 Pro's rumored September 2024.

Your example is fine, Switch launched March 2017, while Xbox One X launched November 2017, about 8 months later.
They said the reveal was happening in September, for what is likely a November release. As in my opinion September is the most likely month for Switch 2 to release, Nintendo ain't afraid of shit since they know that the release of one of the most anticipated consoles of all time will easily overshadow Sony announcing a standard mid-gen refresh, with emphasis on the mid.
 
2 different markets, one is a handheld one is a console. I dont think its a problem if switch 2 launches close to it. Also switch 2 will be much cheaper
For sure but wouldn’t you want to just completely dominate the news cycle if you release in May or June? I feel like that’d just be the better choice.
 
The PS5 Pro is a joke SKU aimed at sickos and will probably cost $700, the Switch 2 will completely overshadow it.

The Switch 2 is arguably the most hyped console ever made.
I'll put some "however" here because Sony should have the hardware bundled with GTA VI
In meantime, themed NG Switch can also be a very interesting counterpart
 
Where are you getting these numbers from? I would be interested in reading more about that.
From Nvidia's official benchmarks for the 4060, we can see that with the 3060, an Ampere card has a roughly 1:2:8 ratio of performance between its CUDA, RT, and Tensor cores.
4Xi2xhWeEbuG6dxWdMeSEK-970-80.png

As for the PS5's RT, it's just the number of RT accelerators (144) times the clock speed in MHz (2233) divided by 1000 to get the number of gflops.
 
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That corresponds to 3 tflops handheld and 6 tflops docked for the RT cores. By comparison, the PS5's RT accelerators only get around 320 gflops. It's not at all out of the question that not only will Switch 2 have RT as a regular feature, but that said RT could look better than on PS5 and XBSX.

A few points on this

First, the RT cores are only used for hardware ray-tracing and the Switch 2 (and NVIDIA hardware in general currently) has no advantages in software ray-tracing and is just much worse.

Second, the core distribution for RTX 3000 cards (which the Switch 2 is likely to be) goes like

128 general cores
4 tensor cores
1 RT core

This distribution works well for PC games as it's very hard for devs to optimize that much for the tensor cores and RT cores as of now... It's a less good distribution for the Switch 2's fixed hardware. I would like a lot more tensor cores relative to general cores for the Switch 2 and this distribution gives the Switch 2 only 12 total RT cores, which is not great.

Third, hardware ray-tracing has a few steps

1. BVH prep (CPU)
2. BVH construction (General GPU cores)
3. Sending out rays to traverse the BVH (RT cores)
4. Denoising the scene (done by tensor cores if using ray reconstruction, but ray reconstruction is currently a good bit more expensive than other denoising methods outside of path tracing. Less costly denoisers use the general GPU cores)

So there's only one step (step 3) where the Switch 2 will have any advantage in HW RT. And the RT cores are 10x faster at BVH traversal than general cores... But I'm not sure it will make a massive difference when there are many steps and there are only 12 RT cores.
 
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I wouldn't be so sure about that but I know there's no helping you.

Well, it is literally confirmed to release after 2024 and they didn't say Q1 2025 or anything so picking the month their games usually launch around seems reasonable.

Last six SKUs released by Rockstar:

GTA5-September 2013
GTA5 PS4-November 2014
Red Dead 2-October 2018
GTA Trilogy-November 2021
GTA5 PS5-March 2022
Red Dead Switch-August/October 2023 (digital/physical)

Rockstar and 2K will also take no risks whatsoever with the polish on this game and will delay it as much as is needed.
 
I don't think the costs of the display and the internal flash storage can be completely discounted, especially when Video Games Chronicle and NateDrake have heard of a ~8" LCD display being used to reduce costs, especially if Nintendo does plan to equip a significant amount of capacity for the internal flash storage.
I never discounted them. If you'll note, I was discussing components which "contribute to performance", and wasn't speaking to the screen. While I appreciate your input, please take care to make sure you're responding to what people are actually saying.
 
you all know by now how I feel about them cheaping out on the display but over time I've come to accept that it's a sensible strategy. rather, at the very least it is congruent with a highly speculative guess of a sensible strategy:

  • making a more powerful switch is proving difficult for nintendo and nvidia due to power and size constraints
  • the solution is to make a physically larger system to afford more battery volume and cooling hardware
  • this inherently makes the device less appealing as a portable device to the mass market
  • it also inherently makes the device more expensive
  • accordingly costs need to be cut to bring the product down to a preferred price
  • since handheld mode is already less appealing, a cheaper, but bigger for design and marketing purposes, panel is used
  • the cherry on top: the OLED model already set a precedent that can be fulfilled when they manage to get the full package smaller and lighter

for now I'm going to solidify my guess that the new system is coming in calendar Q1 2025 (February or March) and will be followed in holiday 2027 by the concurrent launches of two models: an OLED model that is the same size as, or nominally smaller than, the 2025 model and a Lite that also has an OLED display. I think this is also when we get a new Animal Crossing, a perfect fit for a realistically portable device for smaller hands.
That isn't consistent with existing findings, unless, of course, T239 is on 8nm. This seems extremely unlikely at present, albeit the risk remains.
 
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I don’t think Nintendo should feel threatened by the release of the PS5 Pro. The latter is a midgen refresh that is meant to boost PS5 players’ experience with the base console. These are usually targeted to hardcore gamers, moreso Sony fanboys.

The Switch 2, on the other hand, is a console for anyone that wants one. And like Necro said, they can always release a themed SKU to counter the new machine on the market. Daresay, a Mario themed SKU?
 
Well, it is literally confirmed to release after 2024 and they didn't say Q1 2025 or anything so picking the month their games usually launch around seems reasonable.

Last six SKUs released by Rockstar:

GTA5-September 2013
GTA5 PS4-November 2014
Red Dead 2-October 2018
GTA Trilogy-November 2021
GTA5 PS5-March 2022
Red Dead Switch-August/October 2023 (digital/physical)

Rockstar and 2K will also take no risks whatsoever with the polish on this game and will delay it as much as is needed.
Well I'm just curious where you think Rockstar will get that extra 2.5B in revenue next FY then if GTA 6 is not a part of those plans.

And also a leaker on reddit, whom last I checked was verified as trustworthy enough, said they are shooting for Q1 2025. Granted this was earlier in the week and I haven't been on the reddit in a couple days.
 
Well I'm just curious where you think Rockstar will get that extra 2.5B in revenue next FY then if GTA 6 is not a part of those plans.

And also a leaker on reddit, whom last I checked was verified as trustworthy enough, said they are shooting for Q1 2025. Granted this was earlier in the week and I haven't been on the reddit in a couple days.

I'm guessing they'll simply revise the revenue forecast when it's internally pushed to September 2025.

If they were confident in Q1 2025, they probably would have put "early 2025" in the trailer, but they did not.
 
Apparent info about PS5 Pro on resetera, reveal happening in September 2024. I mean there’s no way the Switch 2 is going to want to compete with that. It’s going to be coming out before September so there’s full attention on it.
Either they can release before September, or they can't. If they can, they do. If they can't, "successor to PS4 Pro" is the one that has more to worry about getting attention versus "successor to Switch".
 

-Hair tech seems incredible, unclear how it's rendering hair so well for so many NPCs when high quality hair tech in the past has been extremely GPU heavy. Seems to be groundbreaking new tech for hair.
-No RT Shadows
-Seems to be a mix of RT reflections and screen space reflections
-Global Illumination technique is very good, but unclear if HW-based RTGI or something like SSGI.
 

-Hair tech seems incredible, unclear how it's rendering hair so well for so many NPCs when high quality hair tech in the past has been extremely GPU heavy. Seems to be groundbreaking new tech for hair.
-No RT Shadows
-Seems to be a mix of RT reflections and screen space reflections
-Global Illumination technique is very good, but unclear if HW-based RTGI or something like SSGI.
Yeah no way this comes to switch 2 without massive downgrades
 
Can I just say how extremely weird it is that Avatar the game doesn't support 3D on PC.

This is the defining feature of the entire series.

Yeah, 10 people would use it, but come on.
 
Yeah no way this comes to switch 2 without massive downgrades
This is pre-release non-gameplay footage of a game two years out from release, and we're discussing it in the context of a console we're not even certain of the clock speeds of, which isn't even officially announced.

There's no way we can know at present what does or doesn't need to be done for this game to come to NG Switch.
 
Are we still doing this concern for Nintendo releasing near another system in 2023? If the PS5 Pro is announced in September, the Switch 2 would’ve been announced at least months before. It’s a next gen system and one is a Pro version of a PS5.
 
The only one I don’t really agree with is the 2025 possibility. The Switch 1 doesn’t have enough gas left in the tank to last the entirety of 2024 without its successor, especially since the only guaranteed 10+ million seller left is Pokémon.
it absolutely does

fire emblem, metroid prime 4, peach, pokemon, and maybe something unknown (donkey kong?) easily carry it through to 2025
 
it absolutely does

fire emblem, metroid prime 4, peach, pokemon, and maybe something unknown (donkey kong?) easily carry it through to 2025
This.

I believe in a Q4 release, but Nintendo does absolutely have enough games to carry the Switch to 2025. You can round Racoon's lineup with a remaster or a port here and there, and the lineup will be pretty solid.
 
Please be respectful and tolerant of different perspectives, even if you disagree.- mariodk18, meatbag, Tangerine_Cookie
anyone who suggests 2025 as a possibility should not be listened to.
 
it absolutely does

fire emblem, metroid prime 4, peach, pokemon, and maybe something unknown (donkey kong?) easily carry it through to 2025

Ehhhh, it has possible games left (I think the Switch 1 will get everything up to like Gen 10 DLC and the Switch 2 will only have 5-8 exclusives in its first two years), but hardware sales wise, it's declining pretty significantly.

Like, declining from all-time great seller to... Xbox level seller (not good!)

I think Fall 2024 is the target, but I could see a delay to early 2025 if they like REALLY want to launch with a certain game or games or if they feel like they need more supply for launch.
 
Nintendo are not in their days where they could go a Fiscal Year selling 10 million units of a console because they had another one in the market.

Yes, the Switch has sufficient software to carry itself through 2024, but I doubt Nintendo would go a full year without a new Switch, be it a revision or successor, betting on the Switch’s software lineup and focusing on their player base.
 
y'know people said this about 2024
You're pattern matching with 2 data points. Just because people were wrong about 2022 and 2023 doesn't mean they're wrong about 2024. They were overly optimistic and now you're overly pessimistic, I believe hindsight will reveal.
 
You're pattern matching with 2 data points. Just because people were wrong about 2022 and 2023 doesn't mean they're wrong about 2024. They were overly optimistic and now you're overly pessimistic, I believe hindsight will reveal.
that may prove true but in the meantime I will continue to assert that any confidence is misplaced
 
The takes everyone gets mad at me about

1. The Switch 2 is going to be extremely powerful so I'm guessing it will be $499 based on how the Series S seems to still cost a ton of money to manufacture

2. 8nm can't be ruled out because all rumor and hack info lightly point there.

3. GTA6 will push the PS5 up to and probably past its limits and therefore would be incredibly difficult to port to Switch 2 without significant costs and Rockstar thus probably won't bother as Rockstar doesn't bother with things that cost resources that aren't GTA Online updates or the main games themselves.

4. MH Wilds and BG3 will be hard to port to the Switch 2 though both are possible (MH Wilds because Capcom has such a strong interest in bringing MH to the Switch and BG3 because it's not GPU heavy at all so I'm guessing there's some potential to move a lot of CPU functions to the GPU)

5. It's hard to tell if big budget UE5 games will run on Switch 2 as so far, UE5 games with complex assets have not run well

6. Ray reconstruction costs more than denoisers that are good enough in non-PT situations and thus is not viable on Switch 2. It could be viable if NVIDIA made a neural network that was much smaller and thus could run much faster.

7. There will be minimal usages of ray tracing on the Switch 2 as the system likely isn't powerful enough because 3 TFs is not that many for ray-tracing (especially once we get to 1.5 teraflops in handheld mode). The frequent major cuts in downports will probably be to ray-tracing and they should absolutely cut ray tracing before much more important (for marginal benefit on a 1.5 TF platform) effects such as per object motion blur.

8. Metroid Prime 4 entered the home stretch of development in Spring 2023 after they finished a huge hiring spree and games tend to take like two years to finish after this from what I can tell so I'm guessing Prime 4 is Spring 2025. If the game left pre-production September 2021, this timeline fits fairly normally.

9. The Switch 2 will have a promotional cycle like a normal console and will get a press release announcement 7-12 months before release. The system will launch in late 2024 or early 2025.

10. Due to the extremely weak yen, the Switch 2 will have a region lock to avoid exports limiting their Japanese audience. If it's literally possible to region lock only in one region, I would expect the region lock to only apply to systems sold in Japan.

IDK, these are not contrarian for the sake of it, these all seem fine.

There are Microsoft and Sega takes people are much more mad at me about, of course,
How very nice of you to list every one of your ass pulls! I bask in your humility.
 
The software line-up for next year is so anemic so far that I refuse to even consider that Switch 2 wont be in 2024

All these remakes/remasters scream “stalling for new hardware”
 
The software line-up for next year is so anemic so far that I refuse to even consider that Switch 2 wont be in 2024

All these remakes/remasters scream “stalling for new hardware”
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