Recent converstions have been avoiding the idea that the Switch 2 will be marketed as a device that is also a "part of the Switch family of systems", but I still think that's as likely now as it was a year or two ago when it was first proposed here.
Getting to the biggest issue with the idea: how would next-gen exclusives be handled in a world where Nintendo is trying to promote some loose software parity between console generations? I don't think Nintendo would care if third parties decide to make early exclusives just for the Switch 2, but I wonder if new first party games will continue to have Switch 1 versions for many years to come.
We all assume that would mean they're Switch 1 games that are upscaled with better performance and better textures for Switch 2, but what if Nintendo tries to create Switch 1 ports of games effectively developed for the Switch 2? My first thought is that something like that would be more trouble than it's worth, but I know better than to predict what Nintendo thinks is too troublesome, even in this case.