StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

[Goodtwin]

And the pressure is there for something new in 2024. Switch HW decline was softened due to big launches such as ToTK or Wonder. They don't have anything else close to this that can release for Switch next year. Next year decline will be much more brutal and we're already seeing some regions (America) were hardware sales saturation is starting to kick in.

The software decline is lining up to be even more dramatic compared to hardware. The OLED has proven to be a popular upgrade for existing Switch owners, but this is a hardware sale that doesn't correlate to additional software sales like a brand new user does. Games like Zelda TotK and Mario Wonder are sales juggernauts that aren't easily replaced, and third party support for Switch has been slowing down (not county Indy). So even if Switch were to still sell 10+ million units next year, the drop off in software sales will be down double digit percentages, and this will be a red flag for investors who have become accustomed to Nintendo selling nearly 20 million units of hardware every year with software sales that are equally impressive.

 

[Giancarlo]

The software decline is lining up to be even more dramatic compared to hardware. The OLED has proven to be a popular upgrade for existing Switch owners, but this is a hardware sale that doesn't correlate to additional software sales like a brand new user does. Games like Zelda TotK and Mario Wonder are sales juggernauts that aren't easily replaced, and third party support for Switch has been slowing down (not county Indy). So even if Switch were to still sell 10+ million units next year, the drop off in software sales will be down double digit percentages, and this will be a red flag for investors who have become accustomed to Nintendo selling nearly 20 million units of hardware every year with software sales that are equally impressive.

oh no! Metroid Prime 4 is gonna sell terribly on Switch(even by franchise standards)

 

[rêverie]

If we relitigate the existence or efficacy of T239 I will sell all my possessions and begin walking the earth as a vagrant, marching to Vietnam to find answers myself.

furukawa's recent empty words really sent fami back to the stone ages

 

[7hatDeadCat]

With T239, it will be nice that, even if they're slow next to desktop cores, that Nintendo will once again present a console with a CPU equivalent at the very least in core count. Even if the performance difference has to be accounted for, having 7 full blooded cores available to games will be a huge boon next to iPhone's 2.

do we have an idea of comparison between the a78c and desktop cpus? are we talkin like, zen1 performance or somethin?

 

[Jafin]

This Resident Evil running bad and looking bad on the iPhone is kinda funny because remember that one person was in here claiming the iPhone getting console games would be the end of dedicated console gaming.

 

[Paraspikey]

Them saying "We're continuing to make games without being bound by the traditional concept of a platform lifecycle" while also having most of their game releases within the next 5 months be remakes is... weird. Beyond Peach, there is no original game to look forward to. Even if we get the 2D DK game released on Switch, a large amount of their output next year will be remakes, which heavily implies they're slowly working on phasing out the Switch next year, which means this is in line with traditional platform lifecycles.

The Pokemon Black and White remakes could be a sign that they're still going to support the Switch long-term alongside the new Switch, as I really doubt they would be Switch 2 exclusive, and I doubt they would want them to be exclusive. But this is still a weird statement to make. They're clearly having teams work on games for new hardware. This is definitely just buzz talk.

 

[Brock Reiher]

This is a two year old thread created to discuss this same product that has still not been announced yet. "Rushing" is not a descriptor that I agree with.

I don't think that matters. People speculate on the next smash bros the second a new one releases. If sales are strong, they have software to release, and they make a statement that they expect the Switch to sustain them through 2024... there's not a lot more to read into it in my opinion. We also still have one major switch game left to release that we know about.

2 High profile remakes
Brand new Mario series game
Metroid Prime 4
Likely a new (2?) mainline Pokémon

Thats arguably already better than a few previous years of switch. And you can say it's hard to replace games like Mario Wonder but we didn't know Mario Wonder existed a few months ago.

 

[gnetc]

I feel as though they’re building up an extremely strong release lineup. If it truly is H2 and the release title is a 3D Mario, it will be a huge seller, obviously. The real question is if they will start hammering away with releases after that.

I seriously think they want a giant release every month during the first year. Donkey Kong, Metroid, Mario Kart, Pokemon. The next system could turn into a monster really really quickly. I’m all for it, they might be waiting for every game to be ready for a steady release schedule.

 

[ILikeFeet]

i saw gameplay of Resident Evil 8 Village on IPhone 15 Pro and the game look so washed(who put this sand filter on the game?

I'm guessing the port caused some color space problems. it needs more TLC, definitely

This Resident Evil running bad and looking bad on the iPhone is kinda funny because remember that one person was in here claiming the iPhone getting console games would be the end of dedicated console gaming.

phones are definitely capable of running such games, but as I said above, they need to be tailored. that's why all these mobile oriented games look much better. like Assassin's Creed Jade

 

[Ghostsonplanets]

do we have an idea of comparison between the a78c and desktop cpus? are we talkin like, zen1 performance or somethin?

A78 general performance should be slightly higher than Zen 2 or Skylake at comparable clocks and best implementations. But Switch 2 CPU will be clocked quite decently lower than PS5/XSeries, so it's best to ground your expectations for Switch 2 CPU performance to be around 40 - 50% of consoles Zen 2.

Edit: Actually, don't take my word for it. Here's an Anandtech Spec2006 INT and FP testing with the Cortex A78 and compared to i9 10900K and Zen 3 Ryzen 9 5950X:

Left is power used. Right is performance.

The Snapdragon 888 vs The Exynos 2100: Cortex-X1 & 5nm - Who Does It Better?

www.anandtech.com

 

[RumHamRigRunner]

My guess is that if the C in the A78C really does mean considerably more cache we should be seeing single core performance overtake the Zen 2 chipsets in current-gen consoles by a little bit. Think of the gaming performance uplift of 3D V-Cache to Zen 3 CPUs in the desktop space (i.e. 5600X to 5600X3D/5800X to 5800X3D) but factor such an uplift in to CPU gaming performance that is comparable to Zen 2 CPUs or slightly worse ones.

Wouldn’t be surprised if it was as capable as Zen 3 non V-Cache at comparable clocks.

 

[7hatDeadCat]

A78 general performance should be slightly higher than Zen 2 or Skylake at comparable clocks and best implementations. But Switch 2 CPU will be clocked quite decently lower than PS5/XSeries, so it's best to ground your expectations for Switch 2 CPU performance to be around 40 - 50% of consoles Zen 2.

Edit: Actually, don't take my word for it. Here's an Anandtech Spec2006 INT and FP testing with the Cortex A78 and compared to i9 10900K and Zen 3 Ryzen 9 5950X:

Left is power used. Right is performance.

The Snapdragon 888 vs The Exynos 2100: Cortex-X1 & 5nm - Who Does It Better?

www.anandtech.com

yooo thats... not bad at all? nice, thanks for that

 

[Hermii]

I just had a thought. Did Nintendo just lowkey hint at smart delivery, as opposed to PS5 cumbersome save transfer system?

By including "save data" in this slide?

 

[ILikeFeet]

I just had a thought. Did Nintendo just lowkey hint at smart delivery, as opposed to PS5 cumbersome save transfer system?

By including "save data" in this slide?

or it could just be regular BC with enhancements

 

[Hocot8]

BDSP and LGPE are among the best selling games in the series. And again, Switch doesn't need another TotK to keep momentum going in 2024.

both of which sold, what, 40% less than the two mainline games? I never said Switch needed another ToTK but you compared MP4 to it. You responded to a post about software sales and said something to the effect that MP4 is on Totk level.

 

[Brock Reiher]

both of which sold, what, 40% less than the two mainline games? I never said Switch needed another ToTK but you compared MP4 to it. You responded to a post about software sales and said something to the effect that MP4 is on Totk level.

MP4 is totk-level in terms of prestige, absolutely. If anything it's more anticipated, at least before launch. Prestige drives interest in your console. In terms of raw sales, BDSP (or any Pokémon mainline game) is around TotK level on Switch.

 

[Concernt]

I just had a thought. Did Nintendo just lowkey hint at smart delivery, as opposed to PS5 cumbersome save transfer system?

By including "save data" in this slide?

I personally think this is the right read on the situation. Enhancements that don't carry over save data blow, and aren't "smooth transition" compatible.

The PS5 transition was not a "smooth transition" in any department except BC, and initially wasn't intended to.

 

[Hocot8]

MP4 is totk-level in terms of prestige, absolutely. If anything it's more anticipated, at least before launch. Prestige drives interest in your console. In terms of raw sales, BDSP (or any Pokémon mainline game) is around TotK level on Switch.

I fundamentally disagree but we're getting off-topic so I'm not going to add anything further.

 

[Shoulder]

I know some are still skeptical of BC happening, but BC is a forgone conclusion here at this point. There's just no fucking way Nintendo would alienate that many users, and have them start over...again. Every single Switch 1 game you bought will be playable on Switch 2. Mark my words because it's going to happen.

Support it with what, though? Not every year can have a TotK moment to keep software sales at the level Nintendo has enjoyed, hardware sales are already slipping, 4 of the 5 announced games so far coming in 2024 are remakes/remasters... it's not spelling confidence in me that 2024 is meant to be anything more than a transition year. Even if I happen to like 2024's software lineup so far, I can at least be honest about what it spells out.

Nintendo supported the 3DS for many years after it ran its course as evidenced that the 3DS eShop was still around up until earlier this year. Support can mean more than just how many games launched on the system. It can also mean you can continue to purchase already existing titles on the eShop for the foreseeable future.

 

[Deleted member 887]

MP4 is totk-level in terms of prestige, absolutely.

I agreed with your earlier post - if you're anticipating MP4 as much or more than ToTK, good for you! But I don't know by what metric you are comparing the "prestige" of these titles. What I do know is that it is unlikely that "game I don't want to buy, personally" drives any kind of hardware sales.

The most I can imagine is "I want to play games that look like that" but that's not prestige driven, that's trailer driven, and there isn't an MP4 trailer.

 

[Deleted member 887]

I know some are still skeptical of BC happening, but BC is a forgone conclusion here at this point. There's just no fucking way Nintendo would alienate that many users, and have them start over...again. Every single Switch 1 game you bought will be playable on Switch 2. Mark my words because it's going to happen.

I'm not skeptical of BC, but I also don't think it's a forgone conclusion.

Weirdly, it's because I expect an H1 release. The later and later that the release is, the more and more it's possible for me to accept that Nintendo is not yet giving straight answers to developers on the BC question. But devs, at least as of a month ago, were asking explicitly and being given no straight answers by Ninty. Studios need time to allocate budget to ports/enhancements/marketing. Knowing what work it's going to take to keep their back catalog on the eShop is the sort of thing that devs need to know well in advance.

 

[Boxle]

The highs and lows around meeting are always fun to watch.

Here's my take on things:

Spoiler: Long

Nintendo continually re-iterating that they're going to support to Switch without the restrictions of a typical lifecycle just sounds to me like another "uncharted territory" comment. This isn't much different than the comments Nintendo has made previously in the past about new systems existing simultaneously with old ones. That usually doesn't actually pan out how they say it will, but it's a statement pushed at investors so that they remain optimistic.

However, unlike previous consoles, I do think Nintendo is telling the truth here. I would expect that given the nature of the Switch's success and the scalability of many games, Nintendo will continue to support the Switch wherever possible for many years to come. Indie games aren't going to pass up a release on the Switch with such a huge install base, and 2D Mario games can very likely just continue to release on the platform for a long time.

Hardware wise, everything we know about the system seems like a natural progression of the same Switch concept. I'm not saying we won't get a fancy gimmick of some sort, but I'd also speculate to say that we probably won't get anything so game changing that it would make games a fundamentally different experience between the two platforms, so they can continue to make Switch experiences feel very similar. Scrollable shoulder buttons, analog triggers etc. are all nice, but don't really change the gameplay of most games to such an extent that the game wouldn't make sense when the Switch already has a large featureset. I think it's more likely that the Switch 2 doesn't have any game changing gimmicks when it releases and instead they push those gimmicks through additional hardware, like Nintendo Labo or RingFit was. Something like a detachable second screen or AR/3D through glasses like the Viture ones is something I've been thinking would feel right at home with Nintendo, and also open up additional backwards compatibility options with DS and 3DS games.

Nintendo account system reassurances also says to me that they want going forward or back from either platform to feel seamless. I would even venture to say that I might expect a bigger Switch OS, or system apps like eShop overhaul at the time that the next system comes out, just to make everything works they way they want to.

Nintendo has too much success riding on their current and next platform to ignore the need to a smooth transition are experience for online accounts (I believe they've said this multiple times in the past meetings as well). Unlike the Wii -> Wii U, the online aspects of account systems are far more important.

I expect the next platform to release by September 2024 at the latest (call it a gut feeling), but the way Nintendo is pushing everything right now seems less like "We have a long time left before a successor is revealed" and much more of a "Big new stuff is coming, but for those who can't upgrade right away, don't worry you're not going to be left behind, and when you do, it's going to be a good experience". Which is exactly what Nintendo wants.

 

[Giancarlo]

I just had a thought. Did Nintendo just lowkey hint at smart delivery, as opposed to PS5 cumbersome save transfer system?

By including "save data" in this slide?

save data: cloud saving

 

[Lozjam]

The highs and lows around meeting are always fun to watch.

Here's my take on things:

Spoiler: Long

Nintendo continually re-iterating that they're going to support to Switch without the restrictions of a typical lifecycle just sounds to me like another "uncharted territory" comment. This isn't much different than the comments Nintendo has made previously in the past about new systems existing simultaneously with old ones. That usually doesn't actually pan out how they say it will, but it's a statement pushed at investors so that they remain optimistic.

However, unlike previous consoles, I do think Nintendo is telling the truth here. I would expect that given the nature of the Switch's success and the scalability of many games, Nintendo will continue to support the Switch wherever possible for many years to come. Indie games aren't going to pass up a release on the Switch with such a huge install base, and 2D Mario games can very likely just continue to release on the platform for a long time.

Hardware wise, everything we know about the system seems like a natural progression of the same Switch concept. I'm not saying we won't get a fancy gimmick of some sort, but I'd also speculate to say that we probably won't get anything so game changing that it would make games a fundamentally different experience between the two platforms, so they can continue to make Switch experiences feel very similar. Scrollable shoulder buttons, analog triggers etc. are all nice, but don't really change the gameplay of most games to such an extent that the game wouldn't make sense when the Switch already has a large featureset. I think it's more likely that the Switch 2 doesn't have any game changing gimmicks when it releases and instead they push those gimmicks through additional hardware, like Nintendo Labo or RingFit was. Something like a detachable second screen or AR/3D through glasses like the Viture ones is something I've been thinking would feel right at home with Nintendo, and also open up additional backwards compatibility options with DS and 3DS games.

Nintendo account system reassurances also says to me that they want going forward or back from either platform to feel seamless. I would even venture to say that I might expect a bigger Switch OS, or system apps like eShop overhaul at the time that the next system comes out, just to make everything works they way they want to.

Nintendo has too much success riding on their current and next platform to ignore the need to a smooth transition are experience for online accounts (I believe they've said this multiple times in the past meetings as well). Unlike the Wii -> Wii U, the online aspects of account systems are far more important.

I expect the next platform to release by September 2024 at the latest (call it a gut feeling), but the way Nintendo is pushing everything right now seems less like "We have a long time left before a successor is revealed" and much more of a "Big new stuff is coming, but for those who can't upgrade right away, don't worry you're not going to be left behind, and when you do, it's going to be a good experience". Which is exactly what Nintendo wants.

Very much so.

And I am good with that. It really seems like Nintendo fans really only want the type of games Nintendo is making, but at better performance and maybe a few lighting upgrades. Nintendo is already accomplishing things on a gameplay level that next generation systems haven't even come close to accomplishing. I don't think anyone really feels that the current Switch is holding anything back on a gameplay level, merely a graphical level.

Now third parties will drop the original. Switch like a stone. And that's good too. I don't think the Switch will hold back the Switch 2 in the way the PS4 is holding the PS5 back though.

 

[Hermii]

save data: cloud saving

On ps5 there is a cumbersome process where you need to install both the ps4 and the ps5 version of the game and go into a setting on the ps4 version to transfer the save to the ps5 version. On Xbox it just works.

But I'm probably reading to much into it.

 

[VagrantValmar]

On ps5 there is a cumbersome process where you need to install both the ps4 and the ps5 version of the game and go into a setting on the ps4 version to transfer the save to the ps5 version. On Xbox it just works.

But I'm probably reading to much into it.

And that's assuming the game supports that in the first place. PS4 to PS5 transferring sucks. Better than nothing I guess.

I just hope we get something better with the NG

 

[LiC]

I'm not skeptical of BC, but I also don't think it's a forgone conclusion.

Weirdly, it's because I expect an H1 release. The later and later that the release is, the more and more it's possible for me to accept that Nintendo is not yet giving straight answers to developers on the BC question. But devs, at least as of a month ago, were asking explicitly and being given no straight answers by Ninty. Studios need time to allocate budget to ports/enhancements/marketing. Knowing what work it's going to take to keep their back catalog on the eShop is the sort of thing that devs need to know well in advance.

I think "need to know" is doing a lot of work here. What basis do we have for saying that? Do we have anything remotely close to precedent for when "devs" got answers about BC in previous generations? And "devs" is a very broad and context-less group to cite; which devs, how big, and how close are they to Nintendo? Why should we expect to get good info about this when people can't even report confidently about bright-line hardware details? I could go on, but that's enough rhetorical questions for now. Consider that if this info is getting to us at all, and you're posting about it publicly on Famiboards, then it definitely does not represent the leading edge of decision-makers' communication with Nintendo.

 

[Ghostsonplanets]

Now third parties will drop the original. Switch like a stone.

That's not gonna happen. Like, at all. 3P who can't port to current Switch will adopt the next device. 3P who already develop for current Switch will keep doing so and so will Nintendo with some games.

You don't drop a 140+M userbase, with 117M active unique users, that is engaging and highly active and still buys games en masse. That's a foolish decision. Nintendo will need to transition these users to the new console so that developers feel conformable in dropping the OG Switch.

 

[Danny]

I'm not skeptical of BC, but I also don't think it's a forgone conclusion.

Weirdly, it's because I expect an H1 release. The later and later that the release is, the more and more it's possible for me to accept that Nintendo is not yet giving straight answers to developers on the BC question. But devs, at least as of a month ago, were asking explicitly and being given no straight answers by Ninty. Studios need time to allocate budget to ports/enhancements/marketing. Knowing what work it's going to take to keep their back catalog on the eShop is the sort of thing that devs need to know well in advance.

I just think all the games will be the same as the Switch version on the Switch 2 with BC. No enhancement except maybe Nintendo first party titles like BOTW.

 

[Shoulder]

I'm not skeptical of BC, but I also don't think it's a forgone conclusion.

Weirdly, it's because I expect an H1 release. The later and later that the release is, the more and more it's possible for me to accept that Nintendo is not yet giving straight answers to developers on the BC question. But devs, at least as of a month ago, were asking explicitly and being given no straight answers by Ninty. Studios need time to allocate budget to ports/enhancements/marketing. Knowing what work it's going to take to keep their back catalog on the eShop is the sort of thing that devs need to know well in advance.

I think the answer is more simple than we realize: Ninty doesn't have things finalized yet, and BC isn't at the forefront of the Switch 2, but rather something ancillary. But yes, you are correct devs need to know these things well in advance, which I think gives indication the launch is further away than you're thinking, and not H1. .

Though one possibility I have is Nintendo announces the Switch 2 on the anniversary of the Switch 1 launching with the new console hitting store shelves in late spring early summer. But if that were the case, then those devs would already have final dev kits by now, or at least an earlier dev kit to get things rolling. You said as of a month ago, there were no straight answers. It is a month later, and for all we know, those devs now have more information, or at least this month may get more definitive information.

While I'm #TeamWhenIt'sReady, I could see H2 more than H1.

 

[Hermii]

I'm not skeptical of BC, but I also don't think it's a forgone conclusion.

Weirdly, it's because I expect an H1 release. The later and later that the release is, the more and more it's possible for me to accept that Nintendo is not yet giving straight answers to developers on the BC question. But devs, at least as of a month ago, were asking explicitly and being given no straight answers by Ninty. Studios need time to allocate budget to ports/enhancements/marketing. Knowing what work it's going to take to keep their back catalog on the eShop is the sort of thing that devs need to know well in advance.

Wouldn't surprise me if Nintendo is so paranoid about leaking that they just don't tell them yet. And I'm on team H2.

 

[Dusa]

I agreed with your earlier post - if you're anticipating MP4 as much or more than ToTK, good for you! But I don't know by what metric you are comparing the "prestige" of these titles. What I do know is that it is unlikely that "game I don't want to buy, personally" drives any kind of hardware sales.

The most I can imagine is "I want to play games that look like that" but that's not prestige driven, that's trailer driven, and there isn't an MP4 trailer.

Actually there is an MP4 trailer!

 

[Hermii]

Actually there is an MP4 trailer!

The teaser featuring just the title (for at the time, the namco version) doesn't count.

 

[Dusa]

The teaser featuring just the title (for at the time, the namco version) doesn't count.

It does count because I pogged and pointed at the logo!

 

[My Tulpa]

Ahem.

Sounds like what I’ve been suggesting forever here (with some moderate pushback). This new model will be positioned more as a lifecycle extender for the Switch library and family of systems and not a “gen breaking successor.”

Most of of the big Nintendo published games released in 2027 will
Still run on the Lite/OLeD devices. No reason not to. No reason not for this new model to be able to make games like BotW and TotK run at 4k/60fps with some light ray tracing effects and modern graphical enhancements that make it look and feel like a game made in 2023 running on modern hardware.

But the games will still run on the 140 million other Switch devices out there

Eh, traditional console cycle is dead. If they can do a bunch of cross-gen games for like 2 years that fits the description enough

2 years? Why would they do it for less as long as the ps4/Series X have done this gen?

The current Switch devices are going to have a longer and higher engagement period than the ps4/one had.

Somehow, the Switch Pro returned.

Did it ever really leave….

It won’t be positioned as a “pro” nor a “successor” though.

I don’t really think it that difficult. The biggest core IPs for Nintendo will most likely be exclusive. These are the titles that drive console sales for the most part:

• Mario Kart
• Smash
• Animal Crossing
• The next Splatoon
• 3D Mario
• Zelda

After that most of their catalogue can be cross-gen but it will be discretionary & most likely these types of games will more likely be cross-gen then not: certain mid-tier games, smaller franchises, remakes/remasters.

Obviously they wanna sell you the games again while going full digital & nixing physical cards from the previous hardware.

This is kind of backwards.

That list is exactly the type of property they want to be available to as wide an audience in their Switch ecosystem, not less.

They don’t need to truncate their software sales to push new hardware sales. Software is more important. The new hardware will sell as the premium model and it will sell itself as that when people interested in that see what BotW looks and runs like on it. (Look how well the OLED sold at a higher price just because of the nicer screen, it didn’t need Metroid Dread to be exclusive to it)

 

[TLZ]

Nintendo, you know what you have to do. Recreate the magic...Announce Switch 2 the same day as GTAVI haha.

What does it say? I don't know why it says I'm blocked.

 

[Meelow]

What does it say? I don't know why it says I'm blocked.

It was just Bloomberg confirming that GTAVI would get announced this week.

 

[Goodtwin]

My opinion on why there is uncertainty surround BC from developers is because it will be handled in a way that doesn't requires the developer to do anything. It will be baked into the system OS, and it will just work. If a console truly includes BC as a feature, developers do not need to do a patch. Could upgrade patches be possible for developers who want to do it? Sure, but that is a separate issue from straight forward BC compatibility. So with this understanding, the knowledge of how BC is handled is something only Nvidia and Nintendo would need to be concerned with.

 

[TLZ]

It was just Bloomberg confirming that GTAVI would get announced this week.

Thanks

 

[carbonaxiom]

On the topic of what third party devs need and don't need to know, and even whether what they know is correct or not, keep in mind that we're not even a year removed from the seemingly well-sourced rumor that devs were still working with some canceled Switch Pro device well into 2022 despite T239 having been effectively taped-out by then.

This still doesn't make any sense with given what we currently know, and it brings into question what and how much devs are actually being told about Nintendo's current hardware plans. The mystery of the canceled device is one that I hope gets a full answer one day.

 

[HankyPanky]

On the topic of what third party devs need and don't need to know, and even whether what they know is correct or not, keep in mind that we're not even a year removed from the seemingly well-sourced rumor that devs were still working with some canceled Switch Pro device well into 2022 despite T239 having been effectively taped-out by then.

This still doesn't make any sense with given what we currently know, and it brings into question what and how much devs are actually being told about Nintendo's current hardware plans. The mystery of the canceled device is one that I hope gets a full answer one day.

still a T239 device i would imagine, just not finalized in the earlier dev kits. no reason they could not have launched a T239 equipped device this year, maybe it would have been more expensive to produce, slightly different design/positioning, but essentially the same thing.

 

[My Tulpa]

That has nothing to do with them releasing a successor. It’s no different than supporting the 3DS line of systems after the Switch released

Except they never felt the need to come out and say the 3ds won’t “be bound by the traditional concept of a platform lifecycle” lol

So don’t expect them to treat this like that.

The problem i see with going the cellphone route is it makes it very hard to predict if it will lead to Switch 2 selling well or if it makes people think that Switch 2 isn't needed,

Who cares if the new Switch is “needed” by the current Switch userbase or not? The idea is to increase the demand for Switch gaming, they don’t make money off new hardware sales.

Nintendo doesn’t really care if you play the new 3D Mario game on your new Switch or your OLED.

They feel once you see the differences in looks and performance, that will be enough to drive those that care much about that to the new hardware…but for those that don’t care that much about it (like my wife and son) it’s ok if they continue buying Nintendo games for their current devices.

 

[ns156]

they don’t make money off new hardware sales.

? But they do? Nintendo is the only company who consistently makes a nice profit on hardware sales from the very beginning, only getting better as production costs come down.

 

[Hermii]

? But they do? Nintendo is the only company who consistently makes a nice profit on hardware sales from the very beginning, only getting better as production costs come down.

Except the Wii u

 

[carbonaxiom]

still a T239 device i would imagine, just not finalized in the earlier dev kits. no reason they could not have launched a T239 equipped device this year, maybe it would have been more expensive to produce, slightly different design/positioning, but essentially the same thing.

Even if this were the case, it would still be strange that the devs were referring to this as a canceled device and not just an updated dev kit for a similar device. Devs would normally recognize when two dev kits have the same specs on the SoC, so the fact that they didn't know, or were at least confused about what was happening, is unusual.

It could be that they were just asked about it after the old kits were taken but before they received the new ones, and weren't briefed by Nintendo on the situation yet. This also implies that devs are only being told about things at specific moments and with as few details as possible.

 

[Dizzle]

What does it say? I don't know why it says I'm blocked.

Damn, what did you do to get blocked by Jason Schreier?

 

[Hermii]

Even if this were the case, it would still be strange that the devs were referring to this as a canceled device and not just an updated dev kit for a similar device. Devs would normally recognize when two dev kits have the same specs on the SoC, so the fact that they didn't know, or were at least confused about what was happening, is unusual.

It could be that they were just asked about it after the old kits were taken but before they received the new ones, and weren't briefed by Nintendo on the situation yet. This also implies that devs are only being told about things at specific moments and with as few details as possible.

Here's a scenario:

Early 2021: Nintendo sends out early Orin based devkits for devs to start working on. This is the source of Kopites infamous 8nm tweet. Tells them a vague deadline of late 22/ early 23, because that's when they expect to send out Drake devkits.

September 2021: Mochis "11 studios have devkits."

Furukawa goes "fuck this", immediately recalls devkits of anyone but the closest circle of trusted studios and denies everything. Tells the studios nothing.

 

[Neoxon]

I don't think that matters. People speculate on the next smash bros the second a new one releases. If sales are strong, they have software to release, and they make a statement that they expect the Switch to sustain them through 2024... there's not a lot more to read into it in my opinion. We also still have one major switch game left to release that we know about.

2 High profile remakes
Brand new Mario series game
Metroid Prime 4
Likely a new (2?) mainline Pokémon

Thats arguably already better than a few previous years of switch. And you can say it's hard to replace games like Mario Wonder but we didn't know Mario Wonder existed a few months ago.

3D Mario is almost certainly being saved for the Switch 2, & Metroid Prime 4 won't be a major seller unless either Japan suddenly begins to care about Metroid &/or said Act of God happens. Also, the remakes in question are of games that didn't light the charts on fire sales-wise back on their original releases. Peach Showtime has potential, but it's an unknown quantity right now.

The issue is that, in your scenario of the Switch 2 being a 2025 release, the Switch 1 wouldn't have a guaranteed 10+ million seller until November. That's most of the year without a big-ticket first-party title, & a MASSIVE risk for Nintendo to take in terms of maintaining momentum going into the Switch 2. And most of the other potential options have either been recently used up (Zelda, Splatoon, 2D Mario), are once-per-generation franchises (Smash, Animal Crossing), or are clearly being saved for the Switch 2 (3D Mario, Mario Kart).

The Switch 2 is next year, most likely in the back-half of 2024 (March 2024 reveal -> September 2024 release has been my guess for a while).

 

[ns156]

Except the Wii u

Nope, they made money on individual Wii U's sold as well (part estimates were about $70 under the selling price IIRC). I think it just took them much longer to pay back the R&D on top of that because of how poorly it sold.

 

[Meelow]

I made a post saying Switch 2 will be around Series S power on Era, and I got a quick "IMPOSSIBLE!!!" lol. Some people really can't handle the thought of a powerful Nintendo system.