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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Or the game is for something other than MH that Capcom can afford a shorter marketing cycle for. Likewise, unannounced can also mean the release date has been revealed yet for this fiscal year.
...they said it was major, it's said to be "million seller", and it only needs 3-4 months of publicity for it to sell "million"s.

It's probably one of their giga-big franchises.

Like... Monster Hunter.
 
The PSP Go literally has a rare TV Dock. I've been searching for it for a long time and found some in Malaysia but couldn't buy it.

The difference between these devices is that the switch has boost mode during dock.
PSP family of systems had boost mode, but Devs rarely if ever optimised for it. It was available while docked or charging. PSP models other than GO could output to a TV using RCA cables.
 
Can't speak for elsewhere in the world, but here in Spain the DS was really popular and I don't know anyone who didn't own a flashcard for it
I was going to say exactly this. I literally didn't know anyone who had a DS and not a flashcard. Piracy was truly massive.
 
Gotcha. Yeah - I wouldn't be surprised if gamer "circles" all partook into flashcards, it's bound to spread among themselves. But that's still purely anecdotal.

US here (and this is also purely anecdotal) but I owned a DS, had friends, children, and children's friends who owned DS, "flashcard" never entered our vocabulary back then.
Yeah, this is all anecdotal, but iirc Nintendo did have some sort of report that identified Spain (among other places) as particularly prone to piracy. Not surprised it wasn't like that elsewhere.

And this isn't all that relevant, but I must have been like 5 years old when I got a DSi. I wouldn't call a school bus a gamer circle, but we all had one!
 
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...they said it was major, it's said to be "million seller", and it only needs 3-4 months of publicity for it to sell "million"s.

It's probably one of their giga-big franchises.

Like... Monster Hunter.
But again, it makes zero sense to announce MH6 & release it within 4 months. It’s one of their biggest franchises, so of course Capcom is going to give it a full marketing cycle. And going by the leaks, they have high expectations for Mega Man Match (a franchise, they could more likely afford a smaller marketing cycle).

So yeah, it’s either that or it’s a game we officially know about that doesn’t have a release date yet (Ex: Dragon’s Dogma II). They’ll likely announce MH6 in March & release it later that year or Early 2025.


Dragon's Dogma 2 is neither all that major nor unannounced. Which means it probably ISN'T that.
Unannounced can also mean no release date announced for the fiscal year.
 
Capcom's definition of major to clarify things

image.png


So it needs to be at least Dragon's Dogam Dark Arisen/Monster Hunter Stories 2/Exoprimal/Mega Man Battle Network Legacy Collection big to be considered major.

 
I think @LiC has indicated that they either know the actual code name or someone who does, and Super Play is not it. I could be wrong though. Feel free to correct.
That's correct. Although the rumor seems to suggest "Super Play" is something that's not quite a codename, just something it's "known as," which is stupid and not a thing.
 
It was a game in the capcom leak, I guess they have high expectations for it.
I ask because it sounds like a mobile game 😆

A fighting game could work as a million seller. You could attract a lot of players because of the diverse catalog of Megaman characters, but I’d wonder if there’d be overlap of fans because a Megaman fan could be a fan of Megaman X, and a fan of X could ve a fan of the Zero games, and so forth
 
But again, it makes zero sense to announce MH6 & release it within 4 months. It’s one of their biggest franchises, so of course Capcom is going to give it a full marketing cycle. And going by the leaks, they have high expectations for Mega Man Match (a franchise, they could more likely afford a smaller marketing cycle).

So yeah, it’s either that or it’s a game we officially know about that doesn’t have a release date yet (Ex: Dragon’s Dogma II). They’ll likely announce MH6 in March & release it later that year or Early 2025.



Unannounced can also mean no release date announced for the fiscal year.
theres a big reason yes, for Capcom to release Monster Hunter 6 on march, the 20th anniversary of Monster Hunter is in march
 
I ask because it sounds like a mobile game 😆

A fighting game could work as a million seller. You could attract a lot of players because of the diverse catalog of Megaman characters, but I’d wonder if there’d be overlap of fans because a Megaman fan could be a fan of Megaman X, and a fan of X could ve a fan of the Zero games, and so forth
I doubt it. Ultra SF6 is also in the leaks
 
theres a big reason yes, for Capcom to release Monster Hunter 6 on march, the 20th anniversary of Monster Hunter is in march
They can announce MH6 in March & still celebrate the anniversary. There’s no reason for them to rush the marketing just to meet that anniversary deadline.
 
They can announce MH6 in March & still celebrate the anniversary. There’s no reason for them to rush the marketing just to meet that anniversary deadline.
Except for the fact that they said they expect to sell millions of this game BEFORE end of fiscal year (end of March).

Which I guess could be met via preordering but should be pointed out Capcom specifically mentioned this as part of meeting FY2024 goals
 
Every time I think I'm done looking at the shipping records, I fall back into the rabbit hole. So it's time for another episode of Not Important, But Interesting.
<snip, read the post through the link it's better>
Okay so LiC and I (I was bored) and a few others have been looking around since and it went from "Not Important, But Interesting." to "Maybe Important, and Interesting.", at least to me.

Please read LiC's post first as it is a direct continuation of the finds.

Since then, we've found the following:
Hidden content is only available for registered users. Sharing it outside of Famiboards is subject to moderation.

What the heck is CMB? It sure follows the usual names like with FRIC in LiC's post as well as the rest, considering the name we could potentially suspect an actual motherboard for a console, but I did find one case of "CPU" being used for something else: the N64 NSO controller has a PCB named "GREEN-CPU-10" which does not help, but it's rather unlikely to be one of those, not to mention it is oddly close to CKUI for having a C.

The revision X2, X4, X5 do follow in a relatively constant pace, so at this point we could definitely be around X8 or X9 as of the point of the CKUI devices in August 2023.

I did some additional searches related to the identifier at the start, basing from the latest results:
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And it is reliably those Switch systems, and cartridges too which I did not list but appears a lot as well. It is at least showing how these consoles are definitely still showing up a lot on shipping records as of August 2023.

And then after a lot of weird searches we found these:
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There's more to it, but CMB comes back with another familiar identifier that LiC found with NL-AM06, as explained, a rabbit hole of its own of Nintendo related and Hosiden related products, and then CMBG is seen, also with a similar naming scheme.
I believe these to be related to assembly, so that's kind of interesting in its own right, but then another ID with HGU shows up, which we've been looking at like crazy, finding reliably a lot of Switch related products among those IDs, but HGU100x is something that doesn't seem to correspond to much of anything known.

With CMBG_V_MP_X3, well, MP is also usually known for simply meaning Mass Production on Nintendo devices so that's something to ponder about.

So we mostly find plastic covers and stuff like that on HGU1000, HGU1001 and HGU1010. But if you were wondering if those were a red herring...
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There isn't really more doubts about Nintendo on this. But upon checking even more...
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There's actually more than this, but I think it doesn't take someone with rocket science to figure out these are tools for manufacturing and testing for HGU1000. I won't bore you more with that stuff but
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Everything with CKUI, CMB (which we have no actual clue of their meaning), falls on similar dates, with similar identifiers that make them related to Nintendo, especially with a lot of descriptions that points at a game console...

I tried to compare to the Switch OLED, and sure enough, similar equipment does show up, as early as 2021-04-15 that I could find, as a reminder, the Switch OLED came out in October 2021.
If you do the math, I couldn't find anything earlier than 2023-08-15 at the moment for this HGU1000, but sure enough, manufacturing might be imminent and calculating a release date would fall into a pretty early 2024 timeframe.
But I couldn't find results for the original Switch, or the newer Switch, or Switch Lite to compare to,
so this needs to be taken with a pinch of salt.

For all we know, manufacture could take more time until release, and if HGU1000 is indeed what we think it is, there's many IFs here to take into account, but that's probably the closest thing to say that manufacture is right around the corner.

...so much for a rabbit hole of public shipping record information.
 
Except for the fact that they said they expect to sell millions of this game BEFORE end of fiscal year (end of March).

Which I guess could be met via preordering but should be pointed out Capcom specifically mentioned this as part of meeting FY2024 goals
It can still be other games. Besides, the Capcom discussion is off topic in this thread
 
Except for the fact that they said they expect to sell millions of this game BEFORE end of fiscal year (end of March).

Which I guess could be met via preordering but should be pointed out Capcom specifically mentioned this as part of meeting FY2024 goals
Could be an announcment of a game expecting to sell millions instead of releasing one, something mistranslated or misworded, announcment sounds more accurate to me
 
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Okay so LiC and I (I was bored) and a few others have been looking around since and it went from "Not Important, But Interesting." to "Maybe Important, and Interesting.", at least to me.

Nice summary, I've been looking forward to that!

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Would a 3nm die shrink be feasible for a Switch 2 Lite/OLED? We're kinda running out of further nodes for a Switch 3 at this point.
I imagine transitioning to TSMC's N3E process node won't bring major performance and power efficiency improvements. (And that's assuming Nintendo and Nvidia are using TSMC's 4N process node to fabricate Drake.)

The size of the SRAM on TSMC's N3E process node is the same as with TSMC's N5 process node family, which is 0.021 µm², and SRAM takes a large, non-trivial amount of space in modern chip designs (e.g. AD102, Zen 4 and Zen 4C, Phoenix 2, etc.).

Andrei Frumusanu mentioned that modern chip designs generally have a 70% SRAM and 30% logic ratio, which in practice, means there's only going to be ~26% or less shrinkage on the die when transitioning from TSMC's N5 process node to TSMC's N3 process node.

 
Okay so LiC and I (I was bored) and a few others have been looking around since and it went from "Not Important, But Interesting." to "Maybe Important, and Interesting.", at least to me.
Big-ass rabbit hole some of y'all have flung yourself into.

There's some specifics that I feel like I'm not really smart enough to understand, but I feel like I need to add (as ever) that the OLED and Switch 2 manufacturing timelines might be different due to one being a revision and the other being a brand-new system. Regardless, these are some cool as hell findings regardless. I think that "February Direct for Switch 1" idea is slowly becoming fiction as time goes by.
 
Okay so LiC and I (I was bored) and a few others have been looking around since and it went from "Not Important, But Interesting." to "Maybe Important, and Interesting.", at least to me.

Please read LiC's post first as it is a direct continuation of the finds.

Since then, we've found the following:
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *

What the heck is CMB? It sure follows the usual names like with FRIC in LiC's post as well as the rest, considering the name we could potentially suspect an actual motherboard for a console, but I did find one case of "CPU" being used for something else: the N64 NSO controller has a PCB named "GREEN-CPU-10" which does not help, but it's rather unlikely to be one of those, not to mention it is oddly close to CKUI for having a C.

The revision X2, X4, X5 do follow in a relatively constant pace, so at this point we could definitely be around X8 or X9 as of the point of the CKUI devices in August 2023.

I did some additional searches related to the identifier at the start, basing from the latest results:
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
And it is reliably those Switch systems, and cartridges too which I did not list but appears a lot as well. It is at least showing how these consoles are definitely still showing up a lot on shipping records as of August 2023.

And then after a lot of weird searches we found these:
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
There's more to it, but CMB comes back with another familiar identifier that LiC found with NL-AM06, as explained, a rabbit hole of its own of Nintendo related and Hosiden related products, and then CMBG is seen, also with a similar naming scheme.
I believe these to be related to assembly, so that's kind of interesting in its own right, but then another ID with HGU shows up, which we've been looking at like crazy, finding reliably a lot of Switch related products among those IDs, but HGU100x is something that doesn't seem to correspond to much of anything known.

With CMBG_V_MP_X3, well, MP is also usually known for simply meaning Mass Production on Nintendo devices so that's something to ponder about.

So we mostly find plastic covers and stuff like that on HGU1000, HGU1001 and HGU1010. But if you were wondering if those were a red herring...
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
There isn't really more doubts about Nintendo on this. But upon checking even more...
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
There's actually more than this, but I think it doesn't take someone with rocket science to figure out these are tools for manufacturing and testing for HGU1000. I won't bore you more with that stuff but
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *


Everything with CKUI, CMB (which we have no actual clue of their meaning), falls on similar dates, with similar identifiers that make them related to Nintendo, especially with a lot of descriptions that points at a game console...

I tried to compare to the Switch OLED, and sure enough, similar equipment does show up, as early as 2021-04-15 that I could find, as a reminder, the Switch OLED came out in October 2021.
If you do the math, I couldn't find anything earlier than 2023-08-15 at the moment for this HGU1000, but sure enough, manufacturing might be imminent and calculating a release date would fall into a pretty early 2024 timeframe.
But I couldn't find results for the original Switch, or the newer Switch, or Switch Lite to compare to,
so this needs to be taken with a pinch of salt.

For all we know, manufacture could take more time until release, and if HGU1000 is indeed what we think it is, there's many IFs here to take into account, but that's probably the closest thing to say that manufacture is right around the corner.

...so much for a rabbit hole of public shipping record information.
I hope it's happening soon.

tenor.gif
 
He's just teasing at what we did, yeah.
So he was in touch with y'all beforehand? Because SoldierDelta mentioned he tweeted that before you shared your work here.



Inminent mass production of the new console

Translation: "Waiting until this week passes to comment on Nintendo's next hardware, but recent surveys by colleagues on Discord have been positive in pointing to an imminent production of the new console"
 
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I think he's in their same discord.
I was making an assumption based on information at the time. If Necro was talking to LiC and Luigi, then I'll take the L with acceptance.
Regardless, we might see more information appear as time goes on. This might just be the start of the swandive into Switch 2 info.
 
How imminent we talkin?
Well I have a nice post just above talking about it
I was making an assumption based on information at the time. If Necro was talking to LiC and Luigi, then I'll take the L with acceptance.
Regardless, we might see more information appear as time goes on. This might just be the start of the swandive into Switch 2 info.
Necro was with us and seeing everything of our research.
 
So has manufacturing moved up then? I thought the original reports were about December. Though "imminent" doesn't exactly mean tomorrow or even next week so I guess it could still be December.
 
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So has manufacturing moved up then? I thought the original reports were about December. Though "imminent" doesn't exactly mean tomorrow or even next week so I guess it could still be December.
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So has manufacturing moved up then? I thought the original reports were about December. Though "imminent" doesn't exactly mean tomorrow or even next week so I guess it could still be December.
"Imminent" by definition means it'll happen sooner than we think. Maybe not tomorrow, maybe not next week, but will happen. Knowing Nintendo, they'll likely give plenty of warning before the Switch 2 releases so they can run their marketing circuit. Whenever manufacturing starts, a reveal will happen in the coming months... probably.

Assuming Luigi and LiC are right, assuming the shipping data is accurate, we can remove a lot of "if" from speculation. "When" is a word we can lean on now.
 
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