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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

So we know the 3-letter code for the system now? "CMB"? Wonder if that's an abbreviation of the codename or if it's unrelated like how Switch is "HAC", but I respect why the codename isn't going to be public knowledge for a while.
 
Probably worth asking, but does this mean that Nintendo has a finalised design for the device, both in components and "look" of the system?

I don't know the specifics of a lot of the device parts, so this is an honest question.
I feel like everything is done and nintendo is probably sitting on it waiting for the right time to launch
 
Probably worth asking, but does this mean that Nintendo has a finalised design for the device, both in components and "look" of the system?

I don't know the specifics of a lot of the device parts, so this is an honest question.
Probably more of a LiC, Dakhill, Oldpuck, etc question, I'm not as familiar with manufacturing process, from concept design stage to the store shelves, I learned a lot from them

But I imagine we wouldn't see all those parts unless things are finalized or close to being finalized. Especially when you start to see "injection molds" mentions.
 
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Okay so LiC and I (I was bored) and a few others have been looking around since and it went from "Not Important, But Interesting." to "Maybe Important, and Interesting.", at least to me.

Please read LiC's post first as it is a direct continuation of the finds.

Since then, we've found the following:
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *

What the heck is CMB? It sure follows the usual names like with FRIC in LiC's post as well as the rest, considering the name we could potentially suspect an actual motherboard for a console, but I did find one case of "CPU" being used for something else: the N64 NSO controller has a PCB named "GREEN-CPU-10" which does not help, but it's rather unlikely to be one of those, not to mention it is oddly close to CKUI for having a C.

The revision X2, X4, X5 do follow in a relatively constant pace, so at this point we could definitely be around X8 or X9 as of the point of the CKUI devices in August 2023.

I did some additional searches related to the identifier at the start, basing from the latest results:
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
And it is reliably those Switch systems, and cartridges too which I did not list but appears a lot as well. It is at least showing how these consoles are definitely still showing up a lot on shipping records as of August 2023.

And then after a lot of weird searches we found these:
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
There's more to it, but CMB comes back with another familiar identifier that LiC found with NL-AM06, as explained, a rabbit hole of its own of Nintendo related and Hosiden related products, and then CMBG is seen, also with a similar naming scheme.
I believe these to be related to assembly, so that's kind of interesting in its own right, but then another ID with HGU shows up, which we've been looking at like crazy, finding reliably a lot of Switch related products among those IDs, but HGU100x is something that doesn't seem to correspond to much of anything known.

With CMBG_V_MP_X3, well, MP is also usually known for simply meaning Mass Production on Nintendo devices so that's something to ponder about.

So we mostly find plastic covers and stuff like that on HGU1000, HGU1001 and HGU1010. But if you were wondering if those were a red herring...
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
There isn't really more doubts about Nintendo on this. But upon checking even more...
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
There's actually more than this, but I think it doesn't take someone with rocket science to figure out these are tools for manufacturing and testing for HGU1000. I won't bore you more with that stuff but
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *


Everything with CKUI, CMB (which we have no actual clue of their meaning), falls on similar dates, with similar identifiers that make them related to Nintendo, especially with a lot of descriptions that points at a game console...

I tried to compare to the Switch OLED, and sure enough, similar equipment does show up, as early as 2021-04-15 that I could find, as a reminder, the Switch OLED came out in October 2021.
If you do the math, I couldn't find anything earlier than 2023-08-15 at the moment for this HGU1000, but sure enough, manufacturing might be imminent and calculating a release date would fall into a pretty early 2024 timeframe.
But I couldn't find results for the original Switch, or the newer Switch, or Switch Lite to compare to,
so this needs to be taken with a pinch of salt.

For all we know, manufacture could take more time until release, and if HGU1000 is indeed what we think it is, there's many IFs here to take into account, but that's probably the closest thing to say that manufacture is right around the corner.

...so much for a rabbit hole of public shipping record information.
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Probably more of a LiC, Dakhill, Oldpuck, etc question, I'm not as familiar with manufacturing process, from concept design stage to the store shelves, I learned a lot from them

But I imagine we wouldn't see all those parts unless things are being "finalized" or close to being finalized. Especially when you start to see "injection molds" mentions.
I feel like hardware-wise, it's finalised and has been for a while, hence why Nintendo was confident to show how powerful their tech was at Gamescom. As for the look... it could just be for the controllers because the Joycons do use a similar process when being made? I could honestly go either way on that, but it's nice to dream... soo... uhhh...

WOOO NINTENDO SWITCH 2 HAS A FINALISED DESIGN, YIPPEEEEEEEEEEE!!!
/s
 
we're so close

13a0ab31a41ba7970f24390d0c315efb.gif
 
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
It could be the piece of the Joy-con that goes inside the rail. 105 mm is slightly taller than current Joy-cons, but just right for fitting alongside the height of the new controllers we think we're seeing here (115 mm).

Edit: Either way, something to consider is that some of the dimensions are rounded. The ones for individual plastic pieces seem very accurate, but the more general ones like "controller" (or "controller protector" in this case) seem like they might be rounded to multiples of 5 mm, which is relatively a lot to round.
 
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Probably worth asking, but does this mean that Nintendo has a finalised design for the device, both in components and "look" of the system?

I don't know the specifics of a lot of the device parts, so this is an honest question.
I think so. Everything seemed to follow similar steps to the Switch OLED so far.
So we know the 3-letter code for the system now? "CMB"? Wonder if that's an abbreviation of the codename or if it's unrelated like how Switch is "HAC", but I respect why the codename isn't going to be public knowledge for a while.
CMB is I believe a prototype PCB name, same for CKUI. I expect that to change on manufacture to another name.
Think of it as more similar to ODIN, MODIN and FRIC.
 
I think so. Everything seemed to follow similar steps to the Switch OLED so far.
Considering the Switch OLED was essentially filling the role that they wanted the Switch Pro to do, that adds up to me. Different leadership leads to different development timelines, what woulda thunk it.
If the Switch 2 is using a similar timeline to the OLED (in addition to being basically finalised for a manufacturing to release pipeline), then we can make a lot of assumptions... albeit reasonably safe ones. The console itself is pretty much finalised with the exception of it's software (which, knowing Nintendo from the past couple of years, they're probably resting on a backlog of 50 games ready for the thing), the system will have a longer marketing pipeline than the OLED so we can expect to see it far sooner than when the Switch OLED was announced (reveal to release for the OLED was from July 6th to October 8th so around 3 months, we can expect around 4 to 5 months with the Switch 2), and that third parties will have around less than 6 months to get their games together for a launch window some time in... Q2 2024? Is that a correct assumption?

Granted, all of the above relies on the "imminent" comment you made and that a lot is probably subject to change. That being said, I am one happy man right now.
 
I just hope this isn’t a wild goose chase where this leads to nothing and people get highly disappointed because of it
You're saying this to a bunch of people who might as well be highly-trained professional goose-chasers at this point. Getting disappointed is our specialty.
 
Maybe I just don’t understand…I thought this was all about Nvidia drivers?

They essentially allow the “compression” of gaming data so that it’s small enough to pass through the narrow gb/s of HDMI 1.4 hardware to allow 4k/60hz gaming. Hardware that normally can only handle 4k/30hz of data or 1080p/60hz of data.

It shouldn’t matter whether the pass-through of the Switch dock chip is Nvidia hardware or not, it’s the data size and the software driver control that makes this work, that takes place well before it passes through the HDMI cable or the Switch dock.

Or am I reading you wrong? What am I missing here?
The driver's not doing anything to the data, it's telling the HDMI hardware on the GPU (which the Switch does not use) to output using a color format that it shouldn't really know how to use, since it was only added to the spec with 2.0. The Switch outputs a DisplayPort signal which is converted to HDMI by fixed function hardware in the dock.
 
What abou this, maybe the FDE works with this technology

No. First, from my understanding, the FDE is for decompressing data in classic formats, just like the decompression blocks on other consoles. That paper is using AI to compress and decompress textures, and it takes a little over 1ms on an RTX 4090 (with 512 tensor cores vs 48 on the t239), which is much, much faster than the t239. Even if we don't consider architectural improvements and clock speed differences between the t239 and the 4090, that 1ms would become at least 10~11ms.

Also, I'm not really sure (I didn't read the paper), but from the video alone it seems that 1ms time was only for rendering a single 4k texture on a 4090. I can't imagine it being very useful for games with hundreds of thousands of textures. Also, there's a point where textures look good enough, considering it's likely Switch 2 games will run at lower resolutions than other consoles, it doesn't make much sense to use that technique when you'll very likely not be able to see the difference in texture quality at low resolutions. Classic methods are good enough.
 
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Considering the Switch OLED was essentially filling the role that they wanted the Switch Pro to do, that adds up to me. Different leadership leads to different development timelines, what woulda thunk it.
If the Switch 2 is using a similar timeline to the OLED (in addition to being basically finalised for a manufacturing to release pipeline), then we can make a lot of assumptions... albeit reasonably safe ones. The console itself is pretty much finalised with the exception of it's software (which, knowing Nintendo from the past couple of years, they're probably resting on a backlog of 50 games ready for the thing), the system will have a longer marketing pipeline than the OLED so we can expect to see it far sooner than when the Switch OLED was announced (reveal to release for the OLED was from July 6th to October 8th so around 3 months, we can expect around 4 to 5 months with the Switch 2), and that third parties will have around less than 6 months to get their games together for a launch window some time in... Q2 2024? Is that a correct assumption?

Granted, all of the above relies on the "imminent" comment you made and that a lot is probably subject to change. That being said, I am one happy man right now.
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* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
Seeing them all laid out like that, I think it's very likely it's the MK8 OLED bundle. KA looks to be the prefix for the base model (non-special edition), with KAA for white and KAB and for neon. Now we have KAC, so another base model, and the L in KACLA probably has to do with the fact it's a bundle.
 
It could be the piece of the Joy-con that goes inside the rail. 105 mm is slightly taller than current Joy-cons, but just right for fitting alongside the height of the new controllers we think we're seeing here (115 mm).

Edit: Either way, something to consider is that some of the dimensions are rounded. The ones for individual plastic pieces seem very accurate, but the more general ones like "controller" (or "controller protector" in this case) seem like they might be rounded to multiples of 5 mm, which is relatively a lot to round.
15mm would be an EXTREME amount of width to add to the part of the Joy-Con that sits inside the rail.

105mm X 10mm X 15mm isn't similar to Joy-Con Strap, those ARE the dimensions of Joy-Con Strap.
 
15mm would be an EXTREME amount of width to add to a Joy-Con.

105mm X 10mm X 15mm isn't similar to Joy-Con Strap, those ARE the dimensions of Joy-Con Strap.
I'm not sure where you're getting 15mm being added to the width.

And I just measured a Joy-con strap, and to me it's 99 mm x 11-12mm x 13 mm.
 
Probably more of a LiC, Dakhill, Oldpuck, etc question, I'm not as familiar with manufacturing process, from concept design stage to the store shelves, I learned a lot from them

But I imagine we wouldn't see all those parts unless things are finalized or close to being finalized. Especially when you start to see "injection molds" mentions.
The design process settles on what becomes, essentially, a beta of the physical hardware. Then you take that device to various parts manufacturers and get them to mass manufacture the parts of you've designed. This involves setting things like parts tolerances - how much variation in the size of widget X do you have? As parts come in you start to learn things - manufacturer A has real trouble delivering a plastic widget as thin as was initially designed, the yields on that aren't good. Part Q and Part Z both had 1mm tolerances in development, and it was fine, but when actually mass manufacturing those parts, it turns out that's not good enough, as most of the mass manufactured Q and Z don't actually fit together.

While all this is happening, your design and manufacturing team is actually figuring out how to put these pieces together, physically, in what order. Do we need a special tool to reach in between these two layers and click this bit together? Shit, this is really hard to replicate, do we need to redo part Q again? And a separate group is trying to figure out a testing methodology to actually verify that the device produced not only works, but is up to the build quality that Nintendo demands.

Finally, you take this design and your build instructions and your testing protocol to an assembler, the actual factory who makes the product. They watch you make a few of these things, try to make a few themselves, and begin working out how to scale that process over their whole facility en-masse. They suggest optimizations, while the engineers check their work.

Once that's nailed down, the newly trained assembly team trains the factory, generates an early production run, and Nintendo comes in to validate that the production run looks good. Often, in these cases, Nintendo will prioritize devkits. Devkits not only need to go out early, but because Nintendo is directly working with the development teams, if the build or production quality of a devkit kinda sucks, Nintendo can work with the developer directly to get things fixed.

Nintendo's primary assembler is Foxconn, but their secondary assembler (primarily for the US market) is Hosiden, with manufacturing lines in Vietnam.

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I'm not sure where you're getting 15mm being added to the width.

And I just measured a Joy-con strap, and to me it's 99 mm x 11-12mm x 13 mm.
"the piece of the Joy-con that goes inside the rail"- either meaning the side of the Joy-Con with the rail connector is at least 10mm wide. It's possible that it goes deeper into the controller then the current one.

If we apply rounding to the nearest 5mm, the current Joy-Con Strap isn't merely similar, but again, those exact dimensions. Not measuring the rail, but measuring the plastic housing from top to bottom.

Definitely more than 100mm in length, the plastic body, but not more than 107.5mm.
 
"the piece of the Joy-con that goes inside the rail"- either meaning the side of the Joy-Con with the rail connector is at least 10mm wide. It's possible that it goes deeper into the controller then the current one.

If we apply rounding to the nearest 5mm, the current Joy-Con Strap isn't merely similar, but again, those exact dimensions. Not measuring the real, measuring the plastic housing from top to bottom.

Definitely more than 100mm in length, the plastic body, but not more than 107.5mm.
I mean, how do we know how deep the current rail piece goes inside the current Joy-con?

Fake edit:

WGTwvnsOLGixZwnR.huge


Seems bulky enough. If it sticks out a couple extra mm and goes inside an extra couple mm, it could easily be 10mm or 15mm. And if the Joy-cons are a little thicker (deeper), it could be 10 or 15mm in that dimension too (it's already about 8-9 mm).
 
The design process settles on what becomes, essentially, a beta of the physical hardware. Then you take that device to various parts manufacturers and get them to mass manufacture the parts of you've designed. This involves setting things like parts tolerances - how much variation in the size of widget X do you have? As parts come in you start to learn things - manufacturer A has real trouble delivering a plastic widget as thin as was initially designed, the yields on that aren't good. Part Q and Part Z both had 1mm tolerances in development, and it was fine, but when actually mass manufacturing those parts, it turns out that's not good enough, as most of the mass manufactured Q and Z don't actually fit together.

While all this is happening, your design and manufacturing team is actually figuring out how to put these pieces together, physically, in what order. Do we need a special tool to reach in between these two layers and click this bit together? Shit, this is really hard to replicate, do we need to redo part Q again? And a separate group is trying to figure out a testing methodology to actually verify that the device produced not only works, but is up to the build quality that Nintendo demands.

Finally, you take this design and your build instructions and your testing protocol to an assembler, the actual factory who makes the product. They watch you make a few of these things, try to make a few themselves, and begin working out how to scale that process over their whole facility en-masse. They suggest optimizations, while the engineers check their work.

Once that's nailed down, the newly trained assembly team trains the factory, generates an early production run, and Nintendo comes in to validate that the production run looks good. Often, in these cases, Nintendo will prioritize devkits. Devkits not only need to go out early, but because Nintendo is directly working with the development teams, if the build or production quality of a devkit kinda sucks, Nintendo can work with the developer directly to get things fixed.

Nintendo's primary assembler is Foxconn, but their secondary assembler (primarily for the US market) is Hosiden, with manufacturing lines in Vietnam.

* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
Thank you Oldpuck!

I'm mentally visualizing that process play out. Would that process (does this part mesh well with that part? Do we need to change tolerances, what order should we put things together in assembly? etc) mostly conclude in matter of weeks? Referring to the time period between the "beta" version of the final product and nailing down how the final assembly will unfold.

I imagine a month at most, barring too many unforeseen surprises with that process (which should be unlikely considering Nintendo already have experience with this in the past and already learned from lessons from the past)?
 
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I was mainly giving an allowance of time on Nintendo's part for either delaying production from "now" to "very slightly later give or take a month" or due to an extended marketing cycle, but Q1 works for me also. Frankly, I'd prefer it, but it is how it'll be.
 
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Assuming exactly same timeline (many reasons why we shouldn't as you acknowledged): March would be the release month, lol.

Edit: Oh, you said "announcement" of SWOLED. Not sure when SWOLED was announced before the release, but subtract whatever number of months between announcement and release for SWOLED.
 
I mean, how do we know how deep the current rail piece goes inside the current Joy-con?

Fake edit:

WGTwvnsOLGixZwnR.huge


Seems bulky enough. If it sticks out a couple extra mm and goes inside an extra couple mm, it could easily be 10mm or 15mm. And if the Joy-cons are a little thicker (deeper), it could be 10 or 15mm in that dimension too (it's already about 8-9 mm).
The next gen, which, by sheer coincidence, has a new Joy-Con rail part that has the same dimensions of existing Joy-Con Strap, to within 2.5mm?

I find that... An exceedingly difficult coincidence to swallow.

Also to note, Joy-Con Strap has 4 LED windows.
 
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The next gen, which, by sheer coincidence, has a new Joy-Con rail part that has the same dimensions of existing Joy-Con Strap, to within 2.5mm?

I find that... An exceedingly difficult coincidence to swallow.

Also to note, Joy-Con Strap has 4 LED windows.
I'm not sure why that's so surprising when we're talking about rounded numbers for things that were already very close each other in size and shouldn't be expected to change too much. On the subject of rounding, either by my dimensions of the ones from Nintendo (101 x 14.6 x 13.9), the current strap wouldn't round to 105 x 15 x 10, because that would be rounding some numbers up and some down arbitrarily.

In any case, the new Joy-con strap won't be the same size, because the controllers aren't the same size, because the console isn't the same size, because the screen is 8 inches.
 
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In any case, the new Joy-con strap won't be the same size, because the controllers aren't the same size, because the console isn't the same size, because the screen is 8 inches.
That logic does not follow. The new Joy-Con Strap does not need to be larger, it only needs to:

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I'll give that 2.5mm is inaccurate, but the point remains that the description being within 5mm of the current Joy-Con Strap, with 5mm rounding applied, it would be an incredible coincidence in my opinion were it to not be a Joy-Con Strap.

Furthermore, the part you describe is the:

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Thank you Oldpuck!

I'm mentally visualizing that process play out. Would that process (does this part mesh well with that part? Do we need to change tolerances, what order should we put things together in assembly? etc) mostly conclude in matter of weeks? Referring to the time period between the "beta" version of the final product and nailing down how the final assembly will unfold.

I imagine a month at most, barring too many unforeseen surprises with that process (which should be unlikely considering Nintendo already have experience with this in the past and already learned from lessons from the past)?
In my limited experience, I've seen it take as long as a year. Look up any Kickstarter for a cool new product that looks like it should be simple to make, and read all the production updates and you can see what I mean.

In this case Nintendo is an experienced high priority customer, so I don't expect that, especially since Nintendo is likely coordinating multiple software and hardware deadlines simultaneously. Also worth noting, the OLED was a “revision” from the customer point of view, but from the manufacturing point of view was basically a new product. Except for the Joy-Cons, and some of the software testing, everything about that process had to be new, the internals, the body, all of it are completely different.

So I think the OLED is actually a pretty reasonable example timeline. What we don’t know is how far out Nintendo wants to announce, or how many units Nintendo wants in stock before sales begin
 
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That logic does not follow. The new Joy-Con Strap does not need to be larger, it only needs to:

* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
Like I said the, controllers are a different size. We can see that from other pieces of this data. Either of us could be right (more or less) about what this plastic piece is, but regardless, evidence is that the controllers have changed size a bit. Which shouldn't surprise anybody if we were accepting the rumor about an 8-inch screen.

But one thing I do want to clear up is what you said earlier about 4 LEDs. We don't have a model number for the "protect the controller holder" piece (which is machine translated from Vietnamese, by the way), just HGU1000, which is more like a project at the factory than it is any one model/object. And in this case, that HGU1000 project is the console set. The 4 LED window parts are also not just "HGU1000" but some sub-component of some component of that console set; i.e. the controllers. So we don't know which of the many plastic pieces under HUG1000 have 4 LEDs.
 
so team November reveal & May launch (sorry i refuse to believe in March) is potentially very much back in business?

guess we'll know pretty damn shortly as a lot of things seem to be converging eg the amiibo restock theory.
 
so team November reveal & May launch (sorry i refuse to believe in March) is potentially very much back in business?

guess we'll know pretty damn shortly as a lot of things seem to be converging eg the amiibo restock theory.
When is the deadline for that theory again?

Im team expecting nothing to happen, for the record.
 
When is the deadline for that theory again?

Im team expecting nothing to happen, for the record.
November seems to be the key month for hearing something official, if production is indeed starting before the holidays.

i'm about 50/50 but firmly in the Q2/new FY camp if it is coming 1H 2024. same sort of timeframe as Zelda came this year would make sense.
 
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That's literally days away. Even as bold predictions go, that's BOLD.
Granted, it's entirely possible that Nintendo has a "First Look At Nintendo Switch 2" reveal video ready (especially since this Shipping Leak implies that the look of the Switch 2 is set).

It's very hard to believe we're in the "We can almost taste it" phase of this system, but here's to hoping.
 
That's literally days away. Even as bold predictions go, that's BOLD.
Granted, it's entirely possible that Nintendo has a "First Look At Nintendo Switch 2" reveal video ready (especially since this Shipping Leak implies that the look of the Switch 2 is set).

It's very hard to believe we're in the "We can almost taste it" phase of this system, but here's to hoping.
A full video next month kind of has to happen at some point if this all ends up panning out, especially with the Amiibo restock leaks, since Metroid, Smash, and Zelda have nothing connecting to them (TOTK Link is already being restocked for the new Zelda and Ganon Amiibos, meaning the November 10th one with the Champions and such have nothing to do with that.)

I'd have a hard time believing anything happening before January if nothing is publicly said to investors during that call. They revealed the Switch a week before their investors meeting in 2016. October 20th was the video, and October 26th was their investors meeting. I believe they would want to have the week of the 3rd to focus on WarioWare, Mario Kart DLC, and the Pokemon bundle. After that, the week of November 10th is seemingly open for no reason. November 6th has been my guess since I made the post, and I hope it ends up panning out.

The worst case scenario, if it does pan out, is that they say to investors that they will give details later this month on the "next-generation of Nintendo hardware" and then during the last week of November, we get that full video.
 
Hoping your theory is gonna be right man, don’t want any hate coming your way if you end up being wrong. It’s either you’re heralded a genius or gonna be hated for whatever happens. Excited to see for the next few weeks.
Let's be honest, even if they're 100% on the money, someone is going to hate them.

Big "They hated him because they told them the truth" energy from some folks sometimes.
 
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