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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

The pitch they've given in the past is that they expect their hardware to drive new gameplay mechanics and fun. The functionality of the Switch hardware did not enable their development of Tears of the Kingdom. It being able to be a handheld as a factor in it's commercial success, but had nothing to do with the experiences it enables - the games are identical.

Yes I know that handheld mode is an important part of their commercial success, but I said nothing of whether or not it would have been successful had it been on a home console, or that it would have been afforded by the teams there without the system's prior success; Just that the hardware functionality did not enable the software to exist. It’s a very vanilla console, with optional, unobtrusive features that barely get used like IR and HD Rumble. It’s flexible in how you can grab its controller (split joy-con), and where you can play it (handheld/couch) but none of these are used for gameplay innovation on the vast majority of their content.

At this point I'm just repeating myself. Switch's success comes from it's flexibility, but not from any gameplay innovations it offers, and I think they can run with mostly that for a while longer.
There is also the matter that is there anything out there that can really really change up gameplay? A new form factor? A new control method? If none of us can come up a serious new idea to change gaming, how can we even expect Nintendo to even find such a gimmick? Touchscreens and motion controls are the low hanging fruit of interfaces. Anything else aside from VR is not worth designing an entire gaming platform around.
 
There is also the matter that is there anything out there that can really really change up gameplay? A new form factor? A new control method? If none of us can come up a serious new idea to change gaming, how can we even expect Nintendo to even find such a gimmick? Touchscreens and motion controls are the low hanging fruit of interfaces. Anything else aside from VR is not worth designing an entire gaming platform around.
Only thing I can think of that would be considered a significant change pace and possible for a switch successor would be allowing for additional devices to be used as additional screens and that's only possibly on the radar based on nintendo having that mobile device AR patent.
 
@Thraktor @oldpuck
I used the following article and both this and this websites and it seems that if what you guys discussed ITT on drake power consumption a couple hundred pages ago is in fact accurate, Switch 2 would have a worse battery runtime than the original 2017 v1 Switch if the same battery capacity was used (even on a more efficient node).

Now, I'm trying to wrap my head around the power consumption numbers posted here a couple pages ago for drake's CPU, GPU, display, speakers, joycon rails, etc.. And what I basically came up with is that there's no way adding up those values could exceed ~5-7W tops.

As (if my logic is correct) the only way the current switch OLED/V2 models could get ~5+ hours of runtime with a 16Watt-hour battery rated at 3.7V is if it consumed ~5W or less in portable mode.

Now, if they decided to bump up the switch battery from 4300Mah to 5000Mah, at the same voltage that would be a increase from 16Watt-hours to 18.6 which a higher power draw of 6W (instead of 5), could still get the device to 3 hours (or almost 4 hours at 5W).

Ok, this will be a completely blind guess but what I think might fit under a 6W target would be:
CPU - 1.5
GPU - 1.8
Display - 1
Speakers - 0.5
Joycon Rails - 0.2
Misc (Wireless module, etc...) - 1W
I don’t think it’s actually even possible to hit the same TDP of the V2 switch even on 4N, and hardly be able to hit the V1 battery life even remaining with the current battery of the switch. It’ll be really tight I think.


To be honest, I was just expecting them to go the most efficient they can and just raise the battery density to get an acceptable battery life that’s equal or better to one of the original models, and then reintroduce something later that’s a refresh for the platform.

When the switch launched in 2017, it was already using a very large battery already compared to other devices like high end smartphones/phablets of the time:

Samsung Galaxy Note 8 - 3300mAh
Nokia 8- 3090mAh
Samsung Galaxy S8:
  • S8- 3000 mAh
  • S8+ -3500 mAh
  • S8 Active- 4000 mAh
iPhone 8 Plus- 2691mAh
iPhone X- 2716 mAh
LG V30- 3300mAh


the iPad (5th Gen) by comparison: 8827 mAh
iPad Mini: 5124mAh

And then the Switch: 4310mAh


I fully expect them to bump it up because they have no choice really. if they want an acceptable battery life, they’ll need to upgrade the battery along with using a very efficient process.


With this discussion, everyone has been going from the angle of “the most efficient they can actually make this”
 
Only thing I can think of that would be considered a significant change pace and possible for a switch successor would be allowing for additional devices to be used as additional screens and that's only possibly on the radar based on nintendo having that mobile device AR patent.
Wii U, where art thou?
 
There is also the matter that is there anything out there that can really really change up gameplay? A new form factor? A new control method? If none of us can come up a serious new idea to change gaming, how can we even expect Nintendo to even find such a gimmick? Touchscreens and motion controls are the low hanging fruit of interfaces. Anything else aside from VR is not worth designing an entire gaming platform around.
Advanced eye tracking could be absolutely huge, though it may fit in a Switch-like form factor.
 
What lesson did they learn? The bigger issue is they didn’t have a Wii Sports like title till BOTW. If 1-2 Switch started selling like that then I’m not sure Nintendo will complain. While the first year may be more enthusiast focused, Nintendo will cover their bases with a variety of software.
BOTW is a title made for casual gamers? I wasn't talking about million sellers, I was talking about different groups of gamers and Nintendo Switch Sports was released years after Breath of the Wild.
 
The Q lite can use any cheap arm soc , by any company for its purpose.
I know, and Qualcomm has chea
I don’t think it’s actually even possible to hit the same TDP of the V2 switch even on 4N, and hardly be able to hit the V1 battery life even remaining with the current battery of the switch. It’ll be really tight I think.


To be honest, I was just expecting them to go the most efficient they can and just raise the battery density to get an acceptable battery life that’s equal or better to one of the original models, and then reintroduce something later that’s a refresh for the platform.

When the switch launched in 2017, it was already using a very large battery already compared to other devices like high end smartphones/phablets of the time:

Samsung Galaxy Note 8 - 3300mAh
Nokia 8- 3090mAh
Samsung Galaxy S8:
  • S8- 3000 mAh
  • S8+ -3500 mAh
  • S8 Active- 4000 mAh
iPhone 8 Plus- 2691mAh
iPhone X- 2716 mAh
LG V30- 3300mAh


the iPad (5th Gen) by comparison: 8827 mAh
iPad Mini: 5124mAh

And then the Switch: 4310mAh


I fully expect them to bump it up because they have no choice really. if they want an acceptable battery life, they’ll need to upgrade the battery along with using a very efficient process.


With this discussion, everyone has been going from the angle of “the most efficient they can actually make this”
Batteries have gotten larger but not by that much. The S23 has a 3900 mAh battery while the larger one is pushing 5000. Density has definitely gotten better though. 5000 mAh wouldn't be crazy
 
Genuine question: How does this mesh with Nintendo’s claim that they won’t release new hardware this fiscal year?
They never made that claim. It was based on mistaken reporting in an article by VGC. They removed it from the article, but by that point it had circulated and everyone accepted it as fact. Nintendo published a transcript of the Q&A session translated into English, and there's nothing about not releasing hardware this fiscal year.
 
They didn’t state that, only that the 15M forecast doesn’t calculate any new hardware in.
They never made that claim. It was based on mistaken reporting in an article by VGC. They removed it from the article, but by that point it had circulated and everyone accepted it as fact. Nintendo published a transcript of the Q&A session translated into English, and there's nothing about not releasing hardware this fiscal year.
Cowabunga it is
 
Satoru Iwata is gone. Genyo Takeda is retired. Shigeru Miyamoto is working on theme parks and movies. Hideki Konno is no longer working on hardware, but is in the mobile division. The driving forces behind "new way to play" are long out of hardware development.

The Switch was the product of Iwata looking for a unified platform, and Ko Shiota's push for "on TV/off TV" play. Takuhiro Dohta is now the head of Nintendo's (apparently unified/unifying) engine development, and we know what he wants - a flat architecture that makes it trivial to port from Switch on up with acceptable performance without custom optimizations. And we know what Furukawa wants - "more Switch, nerds."

Perhaps REDACTED will have a "gimmick" but the Switch is packed with them. That January 2017 presentation for the Switch spent an extended amount of time with the Joy-Cons and all their various abilities. Tactile play with HD Rumble, IR cameras for hands free play, "sideways it's two controllers", amiibo. The narrative was "is Nintendo blowing it with all these gimmicks? Why not take them out and cut $50 off the price?"

That's all pretty silly in retrospect (it was also silly at the time), but the point is that Nintendo can offer us "new ways to play" while still basically giving us a Switch 2, and that both the market reasons and personal reasons they would do something else are gone.

if none of us can come up a serious new idea to change gaming, how can we even expect Nintendo to even find such a gimmick?
I don't know if you're overestimating us or underestimating Nintendo, but I sure as hell couldn't predict an IR camera and Labo, or glasses free 3D. I can personally think of a half dozen ways to change up the Switch - I have plenty of faith in Nintendo's ability to turn at least one of those lukewarm ideas into something special. Even the Wii U got Nintendo Land.
 
Like I said pages ago: I think Nintendo’s “new ways to play” mantra will be centered on accessories and software, rather than hardware. The Switch, I believe, is the beginning of Nintendo adopting the Sony PlayStation route: a singular console that every six, seven years gets a successor. Sony focuses on accessories that are premium, but enhance player experience. Nintendo will focus on accessories that are new ways to play in general or with specific titles (like Mario Kart home). Nintendo will keep releasing a new Switch successor every 6/7 years. They’ll upgrade it as much as battery and profit wise possible.
 
For real though, July is imo the latest they could announce something for 2023.

I agree that they wanna keep announce to release timeframe somewhat short. But they would still want a good ~5-6 months for marketing.

It’s only 24C/75F where I live, buts it’s rather humid.

I don’t do heat 😹, so I dread the July/August months

ReddDreadtheJulyandAugustandGenerallyeverHotMonthandIgottaAgree
 
Satoru Iwata is gone. Genyo Takeda is retired. Shigeru Miyamoto is working on theme parks and movies. Hideki Konno is no longer working on hardware, but is in the mobile division. The driving forces behind "new way to play" are long out of hardware development.
I don't agree at all. People like Koizumi and Kawamoto were chosen by Iwata himself, Kawamoto being the Director and Koizumi Producer. The reason why Switch has IR Camera, HD Rumble and all these features is because EPD4, they really are "Nintendo team" in every possible way. They even talked about it how hardware team made fun of them if they are gonna even use all of these features. Many people think that Switch 2 will be just Switch but better, which makes sense as the core concept of home console you can take with you will stay, but there will be something new, whatever that may be, as you said in your last part of the post. Which drives me crazy, these new features + name of the console are my most ancitipated things of new hardware.
 
For real though, July is imo the latest they could announce something for 2023.

I agree that they wanna keep announce to release timeframe somewhat short. But they would still want a good ~5-6 months for marketing.



ReddDreadtheJulyandAugustandGenerallyeverHotMonthandIgottaAgree
It’s usually fine here for September, it’s closer to sweater weather for me and the winds are cooling down and there’s no humidity.
 
@Thraktor @oldpuck
I used the following article and both this and this websites and it seems that if what you guys discussed ITT on drake power consumption a couple hundred pages ago is in fact accurate, Switch 2 would have a worse battery runtime than the original 2017 v1 Switch if the same battery capacity was used (even on a more efficient node).
So, two things. First, I'm not an electrical engineer, so this is a little outside my realm of expertise.

The second - if the Lapsus$ hack had never happened, but you told me that Drake was on the same node as Ada, I still wouldn't guess 12 SMs and 8 ARM cores. That's just huge no matter how you slice it. I was betting 4 cores and 4 SMs where I was convinced it was on 8nm. Double that for 4N, and you would get my first guess.

CPU - 1.5
GPU - 1.8
Display - 1
Speakers - 0.5
Joycon Rails - 0.2
Misc (Wireless module, etc...) - 1W
Still, these numbers are probably excessively conservative. It should be noted, that Thraktor has used the high load numbers of Orin power draw to get his curves, but you're using the average consumption numbers over the course of a test as your ceiling. That's probably apples to oranges, and the 8W peak consumption is a more reasonable ceiling.

The test you cited kept screen/wifi/speaker/controller usage all static, so I think it's safe to assign our extra watts to the SoC and to the fan. ARM comes right out and says they got 50% efficiency improvement from 7nm to 5nm, and Ada seems to have seen a similar bump from 8nm to 5nm. If we take Thraktor's expected clocks, and apply a 50% node improvement to Nvidia's curves we get 2.05 W for the CPU and 2.88 W for the GPU - a little over 1.5 W above your numbers here, and under the 8 W ceiling for peak draw.

All of that said, there are three gigantic caveats.

First - I have no sense if your non-SoC numbers are reasonable. If they're optimistic, then there may be less room to play with.

Second - the node based gains here are very guessimate-y. In the case of ARM, we just have their marketing data to go by, and that compares TSMC 7nm to TSMC 5nm, not SEC 8nm to TSMC 4N - and our curves are from a little used AE variant. In the case of Nvidia, we're looking at RTX 3090 vs RTC 4090, which aren't identical architectures, and then Drake which is a hybrid. If I had to put money down, I would bet that the net improvement is better than 50% but it is very handwavy.

Third - all of this ignores the cost of the memory controller. In the case of Thraktor's power curves, it's difficult to isolate the memory cost from the rest of the package, so it's likely that memory controller power is mixed in there. But the power draw of memory remains a bit of a wild card, both in how much it consumes, and in how much Nintendo might manipulate clocks to meet a battery life target.
 
The driving forces behind "new way to play" are long out of hardware development.
The driving force is that people aren't going to buy the "same thing but improved" forever and tastes change every generation. A part of the Switch install base isn't going to buy a Switch 2, another part of it won't buy Switch 3, another part won't buy Switch 4.

They need to attract people who didn't buy Switch or they will keep declining. And the next 3rd party hits like COD, GTA, Skyrim, Minecraft, Dark Souls, PUGB, etc are unlikely to be on Nintendo systems day 1.

That's not to say they should abandon the Switch concept. Putting some relatively cheap multiuse functions in joy cons without taking standard inputs and make specific accessories for more unique games, sounds like a good compromise. But as long as they're 1st party driven, finding new ways to play themselves is fundamental for them.
 
Console announcement in June for release the same year, you say?

Meta Quest 3 Coming This Fall

I believe this was leaked earlier this year, but I think it highlights that the long window between announcement and release isn't some iron-clad rule of the console industry. The Quest doesn't compete directly with the rest of the console industry (well, Sony a bit with PSVR), but it's very much a console by any reasonable definition, and they don't see a need to announce more than a few months before release.
 
Satoru Iwata is gone. Genyo Takeda is retired. Shigeru Miyamoto is working on theme parks and movies. Hideki Konno is no longer working on hardware, but is in the mobile division. The driving forces behind "new way to play" are long out of hardware development.

The Switch was the product of Iwata looking for a unified platform, and Ko Shiota's push for "on TV/off TV" play. Takuhiro Dohta is now the head of Nintendo's (apparently unified/unifying) engine development, and we know what he wants - a flat architecture that makes it trivial to port from Switch on up with acceptable performance without custom optimizations. And we know what Furukawa wants - "more Switch, nerds."

Perhaps REDACTED will have a "gimmick" but the Switch is packed with them. That January 2017 presentation for the Switch spent an extended amount of time with the Joy-Cons and all their various abilities. Tactile play with HD Rumble, IR cameras for hands free play, "sideways it's two controllers", amiibo. The narrative was "is Nintendo blowing it with all these gimmicks? Why not take them out and cut $50 off the price?"

That's all pretty silly in retrospect (it was also silly at the time), but the point is that Nintendo can offer us "new ways to play" while still basically giving us a Switch 2, and that both the market reasons and personal reasons they would do something else are gone.


I don't know if you're overestimating us or underestimating Nintendo, but I sure as hell couldn't predict an IR camera and Labo, or glasses free 3D. I can personally think of a half dozen ways to change up the Switch - I have plenty of faith in Nintendo's ability to turn at least one of those lukewarm ideas into something special. Even the Wii U got Nintendo Land.

Agreed completely. I don't like the word gimmick, but if Switch had a gimmick, it definitely wasn't the hybrid form factor. Nintendo never made a game about switching between docked and portable play. The form factor was just a result of their desire to accommodate both handheld and home console players on a single device. Assuming they don't want to go back to having separate handheld and stationary consoles again, the hybrid approach isn't going anywhere.

Another thing I'll add is that the two people who would have had the biggest impact on the design and direction of [redacted], Furukawa as president and Shiota as head of the hardware group, are also the two youngest members of Nintendo's board of directors by a decent margin. They're both about 20 years younger than Miyamoto.
 
Switching from handheld to TV and table top and back is the HOOK
The gimmicks are HD rumble, and Motion control and touch... and the IR sensor

I think if they wanted to add any other things they could...
Maybe cameras for AR or motion tracking
Streaming to the dock for dual screen gaming
3D screen for improved Tabletop multiplayer

I think they have a bunch of options for new ways to play (even though these are old ideas) if they think it is necessary.
 
-Nintendo provides a statement regarding new hardware in a given timeframe.
-Least amount of details as possible are given, "uncharted territory" is mentioned.
-Journalists report on Nintendo's statement, claiming that there won't be any new hardware in that timeframe.
-Famiboards claims that journalists are misreporting and there was no such claim about new hardware, therefore there's still a chance.
No hardware releases in the given timeframe
-Wait until Nintendo's next statement.

The current cycle of hardware news
 
Console announcement in June for release the same year, you say?

Meta Quest 3 Coming This Fall

I believe this was leaked earlier this year, but I think it highlights that the long window between announcement and release isn't some iron-clad rule of the console industry. The Quest doesn't compete directly with the rest of the console industry (well, Sony a bit with PSVR), but it's very much a console by any reasonable definition, and they don't see a need to announce more than a few months before release.
They had already indicated it was coming earlier this year. So it's not an out of nowhere announcement.



And yeah there have been rumors and leaks going since last year.
 
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Vr is still a good 10-20 years away from being mainstream viable. Maybe as a niche side product that at best sells ten million units.
Completely disagree. One of the core issues we have with current VR is locomotion. And that's only a problem because:
1 - developers can't seem to get their heads around the concept of creating VR experiences with limited movement or, trying to implement movement in short, segmented and properly transitioned methods (think half-life alyx).
2 - "proper" VR movement solutions like the virtuix omni are extremely overpriced for what they are and disincentive others to pursue ways of making it more viable instead of trying to improve movement through software (while failing miserably)

Like I said, Nintendo already experimented with VR. They also have enough hardware with drake to run stable 60+FPS experiences and in case aliasing's a problem, they also have the software to deal with that - DLSS/FSR. Switch 2 will also likely be a tablet and feature controllers with gyro and movement tracking.
All they need is a cheap plastic enclosure with lenses accessory.

Nintendo has the cake and knife in hands for VR this gen, they only have to slice it and serve.
 
Agreed completely. I don't like the word gimmick, but if Switch had a gimmick, it definitely wasn't the hybrid form factor.
Same, I do not like the word, but agree that the Switch USP was different from the control options they provided.

The driving force is that people aren't going to buy the "same thing but improved" forever and tastes change every generation. A part of the Switch install base isn't going to buy a Switch 2, another part of it won't buy Switch 3, another part won't buy Switch 4.

They need to attract people who didn't buy Switch or they will keep declining.

I think tastes for a hybrid portable/TV console - or even just a powerful handheld period - have grown, not reduced, over the course of the generation. "Tastes" change, but that doesn't mean that controllers need to - the line between the PS1 and the PS5 is pretty direct, but first party software for that console changed according to tastes, aided and abetted by increased power.

It's also easy to lose track, once you're past a certain age, that one of the drivers of users leaving the ecosystem, or coming into the ecosystem, is literal birth and death. 3.2 million US folks died last year, 4 million kids will turn 13 this year. If Nintendo wants to hit similar numbers for REDACTED that they hit for Switch the question isn't "how do we continue to appeal to young gamers."

And young gamers are digital natives, while increasingly not identifying as "gamers" at all, because everyone is. They speak controller out of the box.

And the next 3rd party hits like COD, GTA, Skyrim, Minecraft, Dark Souls, PUGB, etc are unlikely to be on Nintendo systems day 1.

That's not to say they should abandon the Switch concept. Putting some relatively cheap multiuse functions in joy cons without taking standard inputs and make specific accessories for more unique games, sounds like a good compromise. But as long as they're 1st party driven, finding new ways to play themselves is fundamental for them.
I think we may hit a terminology gap here, going back to what Thraktor said about not liking the word "gimmick." I think we probably agree on the path forward, which is new features, but I'm not sure I'd put that in the same category as, say, motion controllers or the GamePad.

My vague idea behind "gimmick" is "what does Nintendo offer you instead of performance to justify the price". But I think we can be a little more granular.

  • What does this new piece of hardware offer the player, other than performance, that the previous system didn't?
  • What does this new hardware offer developers that other systems don't?
  • How central are these features to the success of the console?

For the Wii, the answers were "motion control/motion control/very." For the 3DS the answers were "stereoscopic 3D/stereoscopic 3D/not very". For the Switch the answers were "hybrid nature/nothing/very".

Which is not to say that the Switch didn't have new input features, but for the most part, they all lined up with products elsewhere in the market that developers were used to - touchscreens, gyro, camera - and in fact, the hybrid concept partially worked because there were no major control gimmicks. Getting "big TV experiences on portable", the system's USP, partially depended on it being straight forward to feel like "Switch native."

To preserve the Switch concept, you want things that either work in both modes (gyro), or that have clear analogues in both modes (pointer/touchscreen), and aren't so central to the device that developers feel like they have to support it (unlike Wii waggle). I think the biggest candidates are cameras and/or speakers in the Joy-Con, and some form of casting from the Switch to the TV for multi-screen play. I wouldn't call those "gimmicks" but I think they fit under your idea of low cost, expanded feature set.
 
-Nintendo provides a statement regarding new hardware in a given timeframe.
-Least amount of details as possible are given, "uncharted territory" is mentioned.
-Journalists report on Nintendo's statement, claiming that there won't be any new hardware in that timeframe.
-Famiboards claims that journalists are misreporting and there was no such claim about new hardware, therefore there's still a chance.
No hardware releases in the given timeframe
-Wait until Nintendo's next statement.

The current cycle of hardware news
Can you not
 
Wii U, where art thou?
Difference being that having people use smartphones, switches, and other devices for extra screens would save nintendo money from having to manufacture and fit second screens on the main consoles, would be an easy way to ensure they sell their remaining switch stock, and would make it possible for local multiplayer where everyone has their own screen.
 
0
Completely disagree. One of the core issues we have with current VR is locomotion. And that's only a problem because:
1 - developers can't seem to get their heads around the concept of creating VR experiences with limited movement or, trying to implement movement in short, segmented and properly transitioned methods (think half-life alyx).
2 - "proper" VR movement solutions like the virtuix omni are extremely overpriced for what they are and disincentive others to pursue ways of making it more viable instead of trying to improve movement through software (while failing miserably)

Like I said, Nintendo already experimented with VR. They also have enough hardware with drake to run stable 60+FPS experiences and in case aliasing's a problem, they also have the software to deal with that - DLSS/FSR. Switch 2 will also likely be a tablet and feature controllers with gyro and movement tracking.
All they need is a cheap plastic enclosure with lenses accessory.

Nintendo has the cake and knife in hands for VR this gen, they only have to slice it and serve.
TBH I don't think Nintendo will struggle with delivering unique or Great VR games. I just see only two problems.
1- General consumer momentum For VR as a whole seems Stagnant, Certainly not strong enough to Bet The future of what could be their only Hardware for 5+ years

2- I don't trust Nintendo to deliver a good enough quality VR Hardware, a 720p screen is not good enough, random flaws like joycon drift would be instantly kill a VR device, Cheap materials will help with pricing but risk making it feel like a fragile toy.

I just don't think they can do it right now maybe next gen when VR becomes more affordable and better standards are set.
 
Perhaps REDACTED will have a "gimmick" but the Switch is packed with them. That January 2017 presentation for the Switch spent an extended amount of time with the Joy-Cons and all their various abilities. Tactile play with HD Rumble, IR cameras for hands free play, "sideways it's two controllers", amiibo. The narrative was "is Nintendo blowing it with all these gimmicks? Why not take them out and cut $50 off the price?"

That's all pretty silly in retrospect (it was also silly at the time), but the point is that Nintendo can offer us "new ways to play" while still basically giving us a Switch 2, and that both the market reasons and personal reasons they would do something else are gone.

I can't remember what I was searching for, but I ended up finding a forum thread (was probably on resetera) filled with posts of live reactions to the Switch's initial unveiling announcement and people were going hog wild about all the different features that are now old news and taken for granted. It was amusing and kind of cool to see.
 
Completely disagree. One of the core issues we have with current VR is locomotion. And that's only a problem because:
The core issue with VR is that it is a radically new gaming paradigm, top to bottom. It appeals to a subset of non/casual gamers who find themselves instantly taking to it when in a situation where someone convinces them to put on the headset, but for whom overcoming that initial tech-reluctant barrier is extremely high. It also fails to appeal to a large subset of gamers who just wanna come home from work and shoot some bad guys.

There are no VR natives, VR doesn't nicely map onto the existing gamer population, and VR games are rapidly evolving the basics of the medium at the same rate that early arcade games did. You said it yourself, devs don't know yet how to treat basics like locomotion, and at the same time, there aren't a lot of New Yorkers with large enough apartments to play Beat Saber safely.

The market isn't at a point where adoption rates can change by a factor of 10 simply by delivering a quality product. I wouldn't bet on VR crashing like video games did in the wake of Atari, but the whole hobby we currently enjoy wasn't guaranteed to survive. VR's future is unsteady, especially when one of the key players (Sony) seems to be going out of their way to fuck it up.
 
0
what if nintendo new gimmick is a VR screen to play while "portable"?
I have used my quest 2 + virtual desktop + switch & capture card on my pc, and feels like playing on a cinema.
This way some games can be fully VR and the rest just have the VR screen option
 
0
Vr is still a good 10-20 years away from being mainstream viable. Maybe as a niche side product that at best sells ten million units.

Depends on the kind of VR.

VR where the player has to stand up and move around is never going to be more than niche.

VR that can be enjoyed entirely while sitting down, mainly providing as visual improvement and the option of easy aiming/pointer on the couch has much more potential.

It's like how with motion controls, gyro and accelerometers have become fairly mainstream whereas stuff like kinect was too much of a pain in the ass to become mainstream.
 
"Tastes" change, but that doesn't mean that controllers need to - the line between the PS1 and the PS5 is pretty direct, but first party software for that console changed according to tastes, aided and abetted by increased power.
Sony can just adapt to the player base taste because it's not their 1st party which are selling their new consoles to those who didn't own the previous console. 3rd party do that for them and no single publisher needs to do that every generation either. In one generation IP A and B are main drivers, then if their publishers decide to play safe and bank on success or simply fails to keep their momentum, another couple more takes their place. And 3rd party also takes care of retaining the user base which didn't drift.

We're talking about a single publisher - even if they reached the top individually - trying to do what 90% of the industry do, and not just once, Nintendo needs to do it every generation by themselves. The only advantage they have is the full control of the hardware and they shouldn't wait until they're screwed and doesn't have a big install base to retain before they leverage it.

But again, they need to the job of retaining their existing users by themselves as well. They only ever done something drastic when they didn't have that many active users to retain. So they will be very careful to not mess with Switch's appeal until the appeal dries out.

Either way, my point is that "new ways to play" (be it software-only like Zelda or leveraging their control over hardware like Ring Fit or just bringing the old "new ways" to the handheld-only audience) is fundamental to the company, not some old men clinging to what worked in older times.

If Nintendo wants to hit similar numbers for REDACTED that they hit for Switch the question isn't "how do we continue to appeal to young gamers."
And I didn't mention young games. In fact, its easier to appeal to their taste without "new ways to play" as they don't even know the old ways yet. It is the people who didn't care about Switch or moved to another platform or changed hobbies or got bored which you need something significantly different to entice them.

Anyway, I'm done with my rant. Both post took like 3~4x the time I was planing to spend on them 😅
 
Depends on the kind of VR.

VR where the player has to stand up and move around is never going to be more than niche.

VR that can be enjoyed entirely while sitting down, mainly providing as visual improvement and the option of easy aiming/pointer on the couch has much more potential.

It's like how with motion controls, gyro and accelerometers have become fairly mainstream whereas stuff like kinect was too much of a pain in the ass to become mainstream.
I still think a sit down experience would be niche but a customizable virtual room/office experience with full voice control would be neat. Like an enhanced version of discord.
 
-Nintendo provides a statement regarding new hardware in a given timeframe.
-Least amount of details as possible are given, "uncharted territory" is mentioned.
-Journalists report on Nintendo's statement, claiming that there won't be any new hardware in that timeframe.
-Famiboards claims that journalists are misreporting and there was no such claim about new hardware, therefore there's still a chance.
No hardware releases in the given timeframe
-Wait until Nintendo's next statement.

The current cycle of hardware news
Nintendo largely hasn't been making concrete statements about hardware. That's mostly come from interpretation and analysts.
Completely disagree. One of the core issues we have with current VR is locomotion. And that's only a problem because:
1 - developers can't seem to get their heads around the concept of creating VR experiences with limited movement or, trying to implement movement in short, segmented and properly transitioned methods (think half-life alyx).
2 - "proper" VR movement solutions like the virtuix omni are extremely overpriced for what they are and disincentive others to pursue ways of making it more viable instead of trying to improve movement through software (while failing miserably)

Like I said, Nintendo already experimented with VR. They also have enough hardware with drake to run stable 60+FPS experiences and in case aliasing's a problem, they also have the software to deal with that - DLSS/FSR. Switch 2 will also likely be a tablet and feature controllers with gyro and movement tracking.
All they need is a cheap plastic enclosure with lenses accessory.

Nintendo has the cake and knife in hands for VR this gen, they only have to slice it and serve.
I don't think you can really minimize the locomotion problem like that. The explored design space that the average human body can tolerate is pretty small, and any hardware that attempts to work around the problem is going to be pretty expensive for safety reasons, barring a pretty fundamental shift in technology.

I also can't help but think VR seems a bit prone to a version of the general motion control problem where dialing in the optimal level of abstraction seems challenging (which is certainly not helped by the locomotion issues). VR naturally encourages less abstraction, but it's not clear that that leads to better games much of the time.

Current VR tech seems much more suited to arcade use cases than home experiences, so I don't really expect Nintendo to heavily adopt it any time soon.
 
Satoru Iwata is gone. Genyo Takeda is retired. Shigeru Miyamoto is working on theme parks and movies. Hideki Konno is no longer working on hardware, but is in the mobile division. The driving forces behind "new way to play" are long out of hardware development.
Well, we still got Yoshiaki Koizumi-san, maybe he has some ideas for it.
as for the part about the "unified platform"...honestly, I think that may be the ticket, bring back even more things from previous consoles and integrate them into this new platform on a hardware level, I really hope they have some kind of novelty
 
Like I said, Nintendo already experimented with VR. They also have enough hardware with drake to run stable 60+FPS experiences and in case aliasing's a problem, they also have the software to deal with that - DLSS/FSR. Switch 2 will also likely be a tablet and feature controllers with gyro and movement tracking.
All they need is a cheap plastic enclosure with lenses accessory.

Nintendo has the cake and knife in hands for VR this gen, they only have to slice it and serve.

Using DLSS/FSR for VR sounds like a terrible idea considering that relying too much on AI upscaling can lead to more input lag and input lag is the easiest way to ruin VR.
 
Well, we still got Yoshiaki Koizumi-san, maybe he has some ideas for it.
as for the part about the "unified platform"...honestly, I think that may be the ticket, bring back even more things from previous consoles and integrate them into this new platform on a hardware level, I really hope they have some kind of novelty
I feel like this is the best thing Nintendo can do. Bring back past successes and integrate them to the Switch. And any future idea they have, adapt it to the Switch. I can see a Switch VR, but not in the near future.
 
Please read this staff post before posting.

Furthermore, according to this follow-up post, all off-topic chat will be moderated.
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