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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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Chaotic Neutral said:
This is a very good post. Of course Nintendo can wait until 2025/2026 with new hardware, but it would be a bad business decision with the current market trends.
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My sentiments exactly. And we’re looking at this in years. We have to think in months. If we go by the fact that there’s no announced software for the second half of this year, software sales are gonna decline. TOTK will explode, but not enough to carry the console throughout the months. Sure, Nintendo can more easily push new software, but why bother releasing games for the coming 36 months just for a dying console?

That doesn’t make sense. It’s a the equivalent of Apple skipping the iPhone 15 and just increasing iPhone 14 lineup production.

In terms of supply chain management, what is Nintendo gonna do with supply lines that are ready to be used, but empty? Just sit on them? Doesn’t make sense.

Wherever you look at it, confirmation bias or not, there is no leadership, Accounting, Marketing, Operational or Supply Chain Management sense in betting on a declining console:

• Accounting: Switch ecosystem can heavy good margins, but a forecast of declining hardware and software means that everything else has to be revised for a pessimistic perspective

• Marketing: Marketing plans are made a year in advance. Promotion schedules, bought spaces in media and social media calendars. Whatever marketing they have for the games to be released the latter half are either done or in the finishing touches and are to be integrated in the general marketing plan of the Switch brand because we’re getting confirmation of events Nintendo is attending this year. We could make an argument that marketing is gonna blow out the weeks after Zelda, but Nintendo has had a marketing cycle where BOTW was released on March, while they made a big event on the Switch’s launch confirming Odyssey will release in October, two months before Zelda. So Nintendo isn’t a stranger on having big IPs on the same Marketing cycle with months of difference

Operational: why invest resources in a platform that the only thing you can do is minimize its decline?

Supply Chain Management: your supply lines are getting less use the more time passes because of a decline in hardware sales. What if Nintendo once again revised hardware for the negative? Even more space?

There is no logical assumption to justify a console release MORE THAN 18 months from now
 
As a comparison from another Japanese company in the business:
Timeline for Successor Console:
  • First Teaser: April 2019
  • Financial Report (2018): Successor will release AFTER FY2019
  • Official Announcement: October 2019
  • Logo Reveal: CES 2020
  • Hardware Specifications Revealed: March 2020
  • Full Show Reveal: June 2020
  • Release: November 2020
Sales Figures (in millions of units):
  • 2017: 37.7
  • 2018: 18
  • 2019: 14.4
  • 2020: 8.83
Quarterly Sales Figures (in millions of units):
  • Q2 2019: 3.2
  • Q3 2019: 2.8
  • Q4 2019: 3.2
  • Q1 2020: 2.27
  • Q2 2020: 1.56
  • Q3 2020: 1.13
The successor console was first mentioned after 5.5 years in the console's lifecycle, and it took 19 months from the first mention to its release. During Year 6, the console's sales were performing normally, as the marketing machine had not started yet. However, Q4 2019 sales were already lower, as they were the same as Q2, but not dramatically down. In Year 7, the console was hit dramatically by the marketing machine starting.
Nintendo could use this as an example and proceed with a similar approach. This would mean an estimated sales figure of around 15 million units for 2023 and 9 million units for 2024. As a lesson learned, a release in Q1 2024 would be preferable to prevent low Q2/Q3 sales.
 
Hosermess said:
Yeah I think the vouchers are a home run for them. They've already got my money for TotK and Pikmin 4. Why hope for someone to buy one game on sale when you can make them buy two? Curious if they'll provide sales details for them next week.
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Considering they have been a thing for a while now outside America, I doubt they’ll provide hard data. At best they’ll use wordage like “pleased” or something to describe what they are seeing.
 
Last night I dreamed that I had access to Switch 2 before launch. In my dream it had protectors on top that prevented viewing the joycons completely, the analog sticks were bigger, the console itself was a little more robust and had a screen with better resolution, all the design and project were already finalized, and it ran a version from Smash Ultimate that had Alloy from HZD 😳.
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
Mmm, not to diss at Nate but he has said many things. This I’m not too confident in myself and it’s taken with copious amounts of salt with anything hardware whether it’s performance or when it releases.

It’s best to draw your own conclusions on the matter and not rely on any insider for your own track or thought.
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Oh don't get me wrong, this is how I approach it, but there are some that will point to "leakers" comments as validation for their own personal speculation. I have always been of the opinion that the OLED model was going to be something more at some point in its development, and would probably support 4K output even though 99% of games wouldn't be able to render at 4K on this model. With the various rumors and leaks coinciding with one another, its easy to believe that details were conflated with one another. Its really not a question if this is what happened, there is no debating that before the OLED model was revealed, it was reported that this new model would support 4K. This is back in 2021 where there was no chance Drake would have been ready for this model. So in my opinion, there was indeed a 4K capable Switch that never came to market, but in all likelihood, it was a Mariko based system that had more in common with the "New" 3DS type of upgrade rather than a Switch with PS4 Pro levels of performance.

Thraktor said:
Honestly Nintendo wasn't even hyping Switch for a full 4 and a half months. They released the initial video on the 20th of October 2016, said nothing for almost three months, and then had a much more in-depth presentation on the 12th of January 2017, less than two months before the system launched. They were in full-on marketing mode from the 12th of January to launch, but prior to that they were very quiet. If you search Nintendo of America's Twitter feed for the word "Switch" prior to the 12th of January 2017, you get exactly four tweets. Two on the day the initial video dropped, then one announcing the 12th of January presentation and one announcing the 13th of January Treehouse stream. Not exactly an active hype cycle.
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The primary argument isn't from the timeline from teaser trailer to release, but instead the debate usually stems from when Nintendo announcing that NX existed to the point it released. Even though there are genuine reasons for Nintendo to acknowledge the existence of their next console during a time when Wii U was selling extremely poorly causing many people to speculate that Nintendo could exit the hardware business. This was exacerbated when the partnership with DeNA was announced, fueling the speculation that Nintendo might exit the hardware business and instead shift focus to mobile gaming. The bottom line is there was incentive at that time for Nintendo to acknowledge the existence of their next console, something they likely would not have done so far out in advance had the Wii U been selling well. Nintendo was going through multiple years in the red, and were taking extensive measures to appease and reassure investors that Nintendo was going to be a healthy profitable company again. They were buying back shares and even sold there ownership in the Seattle Mariners baseball team to prop up their stock value. This was not a good time for Nintendo, a very different environment compared to now.
 
ziggyrivers said:
Help, they have A LOT of Zelda OLEDs in a Walmart close to my BF’s house… 🥲

By the way, is it normal that leakers have VERY discerning leaks?
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Tears of the Kingdom leaked, but Zelda OLEDs don't come with copies of the game.

My advice is just to avoid the internet like the plague until the game launches in a week.
 
I think a successor model releasing in 2025/26 makes total sense, IF there had been a mid-life 'PRO' model
Goodtwin said:
So in my opinion, there was indeed a 4K capable Switch that never came to market, but in all likelihood, it was a Mariko based system that had more in common with the "New" 3DS type of upgrade rather than a Switch with PS4 Pro levels of performance.
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Thanks to information on this thread, I've come to agree with this view, There's always a question of why the OLED wasn't a 'PRO'. I think it may just have been a plan B in case Drake/T239 development hit hurdles or didn't pan out.
 
eye0h said:
idk that seems like a marketing disaster
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I've said similar before, but as was pointed out to me... the Switch body is pretty simple. It's little more than a rectangular prism with a screen on it as far as most people are concerned. There are some differences on the back from the original to OLED model, but things like "differently shaped kickstand" haven't been a major part of marketing. Giving new Joy-Cons some design or colors that haven't yet been done would do more to differentiate it in looks.
 
SoldierDelta said:
Resting on laurels is a dangerous game, even if it can work out if you're absolutely confident in your product and marketing.
Nintendo learned it the hard way, and while it's technically possible for them to wait for the bottoming out of Switch sales, I don't think Nintendo is dumb enough to let a flame die down a second time.

Granted, we're yet to see how big that flame is for TotK. Come back in two weeks time when it's reported that TotK sold 10 million in a week somehow and I'll give a more nuanced answer
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despite Tears of the Kingdom having the possibilty of outseling Breath of the Wild, it effect on Switch hardware sales will be temporary, Nintendo cant wait forever to anounce Switch sucessor
 
JoshuaJSlone said:
I've said similar before, but as was pointed out to me... the Switch body is pretty simple. It's little more than a rectangular prism with a screen on it as far as most people are concerned. There are some differences on the back from the original to OLED model, but things like "differently shaped kickstand" haven't been a major part of marketing. Giving new Joy-Cons some design or colors that haven't yet been done would do more to differentiate it in looks.
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A couple curves in the design, change in the base colour to a space grey/ dark blue then have a fully white model, maybe add a camera, streetpass indicator + whatever gimmick. I think that could go a long way for sure
 
Hurry the fuck up, Nintendo.
I want my T239 rumoured Switch 2 and I want free (or cheap) upgrades to all major first party software.
I want to play Xenoblade 3 in 1440p at least.
I want Paper Mario with HDR (not happening but let me dream) but more than anything else..
I want TOTK with all bells and whistles, rezed and fpsed to the fcking max.
And I want it soon.

Plus a new Pro Controller with analogue triggers and some colour.
Thanks.
 
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ianm said:
Some new future Nvidia tech...



Sounds like something Nintendo could use with the new console.
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the neural texture compression seems more for offline production than something that happens during the game. you store the compressed textures onto the card and then decompress them on the fly
 
Armoured_Bear said:
Hurry the fuck up, Nintendo.
I want my T239 rumoured Switch 2 and I want free (or cheap) upgrades to all major first party software.
I want to play Xenoblade 3 in 1440p at least.
I want Paper Mario with HDR (not happening but let me dream) but more than anything else..
I want TOTK with all bells and whistles, reed and fused to the faking max.
And I want it soon.

Plus a new Pro Controller with analogue triggers and some colour.
Thanks.
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Same
 
Concernt said:
I predict 22 million in the first 60 days.
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yeah-what.gif


Have they done such numbers before in that time?
 
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TLZ said:
yeah-what.gif


Have they done that such numbers before in that time?
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That's half the attach rate of Mario Kart 8 Deluxe. I think it's doable.

There are so many Switches in the wild nowadays and Nintendo says about 100M of them are active. 20% attach rate isn't too absurd, I don't think. Reviews are likely to be glowing, coverage is universally positive, and not much else is coming out right now. They're even doing a "get caught up on the story" marketing thing, so they clearly expect people who didn't play BOTW to pick this us.

Even 22 million wouldn't overtake BOTW's total, and I'd expect the conversion be pretty close to 100%.

I predict 30 million by EOFY, conservatively, with a huge majority of that coming in May and June.
 
mjayer said:
BOTW sold 29 so honestly this would be a slightly disappointing number IMO, but perhaps for where the Switch is at a very realistic guess.
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Oh I don't doubt it can do BOTW numbers total, just the 2 months period I'm finding difficult.

Concernt said:
That's half the attach rate of Mario Kart 8 Deluxe. I think it's doable.

There are so many Switches in the wild nowadays and Nintendo says about 100M of them are active. 20% attach rate isn't too absurd, I don't think. Reviews are likely to be glowing, coverage is universally positive, and not much else is coming out right now. They're even doing a "get caught up on the story" marketing thing, so they clearly expect people who didn't play BOTW to pick this us.

Even 22 million wouldn't overtake BOTW's total, and I'd expect the conversion be pretty close to 100%.

I predict 30 million by EOFY, conservatively, with a huge majority of that coming in May and June.
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I see where you're coming from, and that'd be a great achievement. But have Nintendo ever done such numbers in 60 days?
 
TLZ said:
yeah-what.gif


Have they done that such numbers before in that time?
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For comparison sake, in their first ~6 weeks, Pokemon SV did 20 mi and GTA V did 29 mi (coming from GTA IV selling ~25 mi lifetime at that point). Animal Crossing took 3 months and 10 days to ship 22.4 mi.
 
TLZ said:
Oh I don't doubt it can do BOTW numbers total, just the 2 months period I'm finding difficult.


I see where you're coming from, and that'd be a great achievement. But have Nintendo ever done such numbers in 60 days?
Click to expand...
Edit: Apparently yes, with Pokémon Scarlet and Violet.

There are even more Switches now than there were then.
 
RennanNT said:
For comparison sake, in their first ~6 weeks, Pokemon SV did 20 mi and GTA V did 29 mi (coming from GTA IV selling ~25 mi lifetime at that point). Animal Crossing took 3 months and 10 days to ship 22.4 mi.
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So, we already have an example of a Nintendo published game doing 20M in fewer than 60 days!

Will TOTK be bigger than Pokémon? Maybe! I doubt it, but I think 22M in 60 days is likely.
 
I think Zelda sales will be even more frontloaded than normal for a bunch of reasons, like the usual summer games drought incoming.

I also think Nintendo is betting on this so they can see huge numbers, get loads of people excited about playing their Switch, then reveal the successor to keep the hype going in June.
 
Concernt said:
So, we already have an example of a Nintendo published game doing 20M in fewer than 60 days!
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Those 60 days for Pokemon included Thanksgiving and Xmas though.
Concernt said:
Will TOTK be bigger than Pokémon? Maybe! I doubt it, but I think 22M in 60 days is likely.
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Funny cause to me TOTK ending ahead of Pokemon is what is likely, while it doing better at launch is a big maybe, since I expect great legs for TotK.
 
RennanNT said:
Those 60 days for Pokemon included Thanksgiving and Xmas though.

Funny cause to me TOTK ending ahead of Pokemon is what is likely, while it doing better at launch is a big maybe, since I expect great legs for TotK.
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TOTK launches right after Golden Week and during exam or results season for many. It'll do fine. Summer is the second largest gift buying season after the holidays, and Nintendo is marketing this hard. Also, less competition, more eyes on Zelda. Not even Nintendo has a June release.
 
TLZ said:
15 mil in a month? 😳
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Maybe I’m overestimating the Switch ‘s install base xD

Concernt said:
I predict 22 million in the first 60 days.
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If anything, it can break the record of fastest selling Zelda game

mjayer said:
BOTW sold 29 so honestly this would be a slightly disappointing number IMO,
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BOTW did that in lifetime. We’re talking about during the first 7/30/60 days. Lifetime, TOTK can easily pass it

ReddDreadtheLead said:
Also, Pokémon SV did like 10M in 3 days, ACNH did 13M in like 2 weeks.


Why are we shocked about TOTK doing 15M in a month

fade-sad-emoji.gif
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DO NOT LOOK AWAY! YOU WITNESS BOTW’S REVIVAL AS TOTK 🗣️🗣️🗣️


Concernt said:
TOTK launches right after Golden Week and during exam or results season for many. It'll do fine. Summer is the second largest gift buying season after the holidays, and Nintendo is marketing this hard. Also, less competition, more eyes on Zelda. Not even Nintendo has a June release.
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ZELDA SUPREMACY
—————

Why are we expecting Zelda to outperform Pokemon?
 
On a different note, I was itching for new hardware, but I won't buy Zelda OLED since I have 2 Switches already.

So I did something different and bought a new Retron 5 HD, Hyperbeach edition. Can't wait to try it next week.

It'll do until Switch 2 arrives, hardware-wise. And it better arrive this holiday, hopefully...
 
ziggyrivers said:
Maybe I’m overestimating the Switch ‘s install base xD


If anything, it can break the record of fastest selling Zelda game


BOTW did that in lifetime. We’re talking about during the first 7/30/60 days. Lifetime, TOTK can easily pass it


DO NOT LOOK AWAY! YOU WITNESS BOTW’S REVIVAL AS TOTK 🗣️🗣️🗣️



ZELDA SUPREMACY
—————

Why are we expecting Zelda to outperform Pokemon?
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We're comparing 6 weeks Vs 60 days here, so I'm not sure if 22 million over 60 days would be outperforming Pokémon. It's definitely possible, though
 
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