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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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GhostBolt said:
Team Q3 2023 or Team Q1 2024 and true!
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My heart says Q3/Q4 2023, my head says 2024. I think an intended H2 2023 launch, pushed back to Q1 2024 for software reasons is the most... reasonable launch timing?

But we'll see! It's all speculation at the end of the day. We know a Switch successor is coming, and that's all I care about. I'm still blown away every time I boot up Metroid Prime Remastered on my launch Switch, so the idea of what devs can do with a successor in terms of both games and graphics has me incredibly excited, as does having a Switch that's better built with a nicer screen.
 
I feel like the console won't be OLED, this is a powerful machine and I think Nintendo is wary of having higher costs than necessary on this system. I think an OLED model might happen years later just like the first console, though
 
For some reason, I’m under the impression the successor will use the OLED’s for factor. It’s an already built unit. Just change the internals
 
Andre3333456 said:
Q3 2023, Nintendo wants the Switch 2 to launch with a new Mario game for the holidays.
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Just imagine if this was 10 or 15 years ago: Blu-ray/DVDs of the Mario movie could have ad inserts for the new Mario game on REDACTED, or god forbid a coupon/digital code! I suppose it could still be done but it won’t have the same impact as it would have back then.
 
Gotdatmoneyy said:
I still really don't know why the OLED didn't go for the full clocks of the Switch with the improved memory bandwidth.

At 1.78 GHz on the cpu, 550 Gflops docked, 300-350ish portable and 33 GB/s of bandwidth at 4GB or even an ambitious 6GBs of RAM coming out in 2021, it would have been enough of an upgrade to quell most of the concerns with the current Switch until a successor arrived.

This is a device I easily would have purchased. Simply suggesting small performance improvement along with build improvements would have been more than enough. The current Switch specs certainly are not hurting its sales but it feels like it would have been the easiest win to just launch a ticked up Switch to keep the more enthusiast aspect of the userbase engaged.

Upclocking has shown to be able to get good performance increases out of most Switch software. Just feels like a wasted opportunity to me.
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I think this was the idea but for some reason they backtracked on it. Indeed a CPU clock increase, small GPU increase and fully unlocking LPDDR4x full speed would be enough to give a boost to of titles that are struggling. Anyway, that's in the past. It's waiting for Switch 2 unveiling now.
 
SolMerse said:
I feel like the console won't be OLED, this is a powerful machine and I think Nintendo is wary of having higher costs than necessary on this system. I think an OLED model might happen years later just like the first console, though
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Nintendo doesn't tend to go backwards with screen technologies. Expecting Switch 2 to not be OLED would be like saying the DS could have launched without a backlight. Not bloomin' likely.
 
GhostBolt said:
What is the lastest on specs for Switch 2 or whatever it will be called.
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We don't know exactly. A leak from Nvidia when they got hacked points to 3.45TF in TV mode, targeting 4K output using DLSS, which is extremely respectable. Think more Series S at higher resolutions, but using AI to infer most pixels rather than render them. That said, we don't know if those tests were accurate to the real silicon.
 
Eclissi said:
Launch line up 40%
8nm Vs 5nm question 30%
Price 20%
Gimmick 10%

Too easy.
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I think the ship has sailed for 8nm at this point lol.

JorgenRaft said:
I didn't realize anyone was expecting it to come Q3 this year. Q4 is one thing, but by the end of September? Seems ambitious.
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I don't think any regular on thjs thread expects Q3. Q2 is already more than halfway over. I'd expect at least 5 months from announcement to launch for the successor. What a lot of people here are hoping is an announcement in early Q3, and release in Q4 2023/holidays.
 
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Late 2025/early 2026 would be 9 years without a successor. Even Sony did not lean on PS2/3/4 for that long without an overlap of another console.
They would only do this if they have absolutely no backup plan.
 
SolMerse said:
I feel like the console won't be OLED, this is a powerful machine and I think Nintendo is wary of having higher costs than necessary on this system. I think an OLED model might happen years later just like the first console, though
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OLEDs are cheap. if they wanted to save on costs, they're probably better off giving you 128GB of storage rather than an LCD panel
 
ILikeFeet said:
OLEDs are cheap. if they wanted to save on costs, they're probably better off giving you 128GB of storage rather than an LCD panel
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Realistically, 7" 1080p rigid AMOLED panels are probably comparable in price today to a high quality 6.2" LCD 720p panel 6 or so years ago, or a 3D display and a complementary 2D display back in 2011, etc.
 
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ShadowFox08 said:
Q2 is already more than halfway over.
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I’m nitpicking this, but ~1/3rd is not over half over.

Q1 is January, February and March
Q2 is April, May and June.
Q3 is July, August and September
Q4 is October, November and December.


If we go by Nintendo’s fiscal calendar, we are currently in Q1.

Q1 of Nintendo’s FY is just one quarter shifted, so April, May and June would be Q1.
Q2 would be July, August and September
Q3 would be October, November and December.
Q4 would be January, February and March


So, CY Q4 is the same as FY Q3 in this case.

We just got to May so it’s not really over half over the Q2 regardless of how you slice it :p

Unless you’re using a personal thing you have your own rules for which in that case, you do you 👍🏾
 
lexony said:
I still believe in late 20XX. Though we shouldn‘t fully rule out any date until 30XX yet. Delays can always happen.
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Put me down for 20X6
tumblr_n30lav4Pq51rn3viqo1_500.png
 


TOTK will push Switch sales up for the next few months, but this tweet jogged something form Reggie's book.

The one thing that stuck with me is Reggie discussing the transition from Wii to Wii U in his Disruption book. He said something to the effect that with the transition began in earnest once they've tried and exhaustered several sales tactics, which included price drops and special edition Wiis. With Switch we've had a SE Switch with each new major tentpole game release, with TOTK being the latest one. Outside of a potential Metroid Prime 4 SE Switch and maaaaaybe a Pikmin 4 SE, we're quickly running out of games for them to make a SE Switch for.

Not ruling out new major 1st party IPs announced in a future direct, or more bundles like the recent MAR10 day bundle, but as of today, we have no visibility on what's after July and there doesn't appear to be good candidates for SE Switches but there's not a lot of sales tricks Nintendo has left except for dropping the price, which they have loathed to do since unlike 2011, in 2023 their competitors have raised console prices instead due to inflationary and supply chain pressures.
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
I’m nitpicking this, but ~1/3rd is not over half over.

Q1 is January, February and March
Q2 is April, May and June.
Q3 is July, August and September
Q4 is October, November and December.


If we go by Nintendo’s fiscal calendar, we are currently in Q1.

Q1 of Nintendo’s FY is just one quarter shifted, so April, May and June would be Q1.
Q2 would be July, August and September
Q3 would be October, November and December.
Q4 would be January, February and March


So, CY Q4 is the same as FY Q3 in this case.

We just got to May so it’s not really over half over the Q2 regardless of how you slice it :p

Unless you’re using a personal thing you have your own rules for which in that case, you do you 👍🏾
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Fair enough, but my point still stands. Q3 is not gonna happen/very unlikely for a successor release.
 
0
Dekuman said:


TOTK will push Switch sales up for the next few months, but this tweet jogged something form Reggie's book.

The one thing that stuck with me is Reggie discussing the transition from Wii to Wii U in his Disruption book. He said something to the effect that with the transition began in earnest once they've tried and exhaustered several sales tactics, which included price drops and special edition Wiis. With Switch we've had a SE Switch with each new major tentpole game release, with TOTK being the latest one. Outside of a potential Metroid Prime 4 SE Switch and maaaaaybe a Pikmin 4 SE, we're quickly running out of games for them to make a SE Switch for.

Not ruling out new major 1st party IPs announced in a future direct, or more bundles like the recent MAR10 day bundle, but as of today, we have no visibility on what's after July and there doesn't appear to be good candidates for SE Switches but there's not a lot of sales tricks Nintendo has left except for dropping the price, which they have loathed to do since unlike 2011, in 2023 their competitors have raised console prices instead due to inflationary and supply chain pressures.
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Do you think Nintendo could bring back the Selects label and/or do more bundling beyond MAR10?
 
eye0h said:
idk that seems like a marketing disaster
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My bad. I forgot to mention that the form factor would have alterations. Just not enough for it to be a different manufacturing product 😅

The idea of Nintendo exhausting every sales strategy possible and releasing a successor can work together. They can release new versions of SE OLEDs and label some of their greatest games under Greatest Hits and have them be $19.99 to maintain steady hardware and software sales
 
In terms of launch time, my line of reasoning is simple and boring. Zelda always releases with, or up to a year from, new hardware, all the way back to MM. ToTK was initially slated for 2022, most likely holiday, so I’m guessing holiday 23 with a potential march 24 delay.
 
Gotdatmoneyy said:
The Switch is not doing well enough to justify releasing a console in late 2025/early 2026.

The current fiscal year is probably looking at 13-14m consoles. The following fiscal year would be 9-10m consoles at best. And the subsequent drop in software sales would be immense. They already failed to sell the expected amount of consoles in Q3. Software is significantly down in NA. Third party support is drying up and it will be nothing but significant declines going forward. While they certainly can release new software, there is no where near enough life in this platform to sustain the type of profits that shareholders would expect.

The longer the horizon to launching the next platform, the more risk they assume and it is a shit ton of risk to think that they can make their new platform attractive simply because their old platform was. I'll never put it past Nintendo to fuck up a generational shift because they are experts at it but this idea that you can sit on your hands forever with the switch and consumers will all wait is not founded in any logic. There is no business logic in waiting to fully exhaust your current platform before launching a new one.

The Switch is objectively not doing well enough to launch a new platform 34 months from now. That's ridiculous.
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This is a very good post. Of course Nintendo can wait until 2025/2026 with new hardware, but it would be a bad business decision with the current market trends.
 
Tentacle-tropes said:
My guess is they are done with the Selects line & are replacing it with their yearly discount towards the end of the year.
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Yeah, seasonal discounts feel less like they are devaluing their own product, and more like they are cutting in you, the consumer, on a special deal.
 
Semi Lazy Gamer said:
That's too quick in my opinion. If it was for a revision like the Lite or the OLED, then sure, but not a new generation.

The Switch's hype cycle of 4 and a half months is about the minimum I personally expect.
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Honestly Nintendo wasn't even hyping Switch for a full 4 and a half months. They released the initial video on the 20th of October 2016, said nothing for almost three months, and then had a much more in-depth presentation on the 12th of January 2017, less than two months before the system launched. They were in full-on marketing mode from the 12th of January to launch, but prior to that they were very quiet. If you search Nintendo of America's Twitter feed for the word "Switch" prior to the 12th of January 2017, you get exactly four tweets. Two on the day the initial video dropped, then one announcing the 12th of January presentation and one announcing the 13th of January Treehouse stream. Not exactly an active hype cycle.

Now if you took the same marketing cycle, but reduced the gap between the initial announcement and the in-depth presentation from almost three months to about a month, would that harm sales of the console? I don't think so. In the case of the Switch they presumably wanted to avoid marketing it in November and December to minimise impact on holiday sales of their existing products, hence the initial announcement in October followed by a long quiet gap until January. If they were releasing hardware in, say November, though, there wouldn't be any need for such a long quiet stretch. An initial announcement, followed by a full presentation a month later, and launch two months after that would leave room for just as much hype as Switch got.

That's not to say I think their next hardware will be announced only 3 months before it launches, but I wouldn't rule it out. As I've said before, the current Nintendo leadership team is very different from those that decided the announcement strategies of previous generations, including the Switch, so they could treat hardware announcements very differently than Nintendo has in the past.
 
ReddDreadtheLead said:
I’m nitpicking this, but ~1/3rd is not over half over.

Q1 is January, February and March
Q2 is April, May and June.
Q3 is July, August and September
Q4 is October, November and December.


If we go by Nintendo’s fiscal calendar, we are currently in Q1.

Q1 of Nintendo’s FY is just one quarter shifted, so April, May and June would be Q1.
Q2 would be July, August and September
Q3 would be October, November and December.
Q4 would be January, February and March


So, CY Q4 is the same as FY Q3 in this case.

We just got to May so it’s not really over half over the Q2 regardless of how you slice it :p

Unless you’re using a personal thing you have your own rules for which in that case, you do you 👍🏾
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The next 1st party game after TotK is scheduled for a July release. The fat lady approaches the stage.
 
Thraktor said:
Honestly Nintendo wasn't even hyping Switch for a full 4 and a half months. They released the initial video on the 20th of October 2016, said nothing for almost three months, and then had a much more in-depth presentation on the 12th of January 2017, less than two months before the system launched. They were in full-on marketing mode from the 12th of January to launch, but prior to that they were very quiet. If you search Nintendo of America's Twitter feed for the word "Switch" prior to the 12th of January 2017, you get exactly four tweets. Two on the day the initial video dropped, then one announcing the 12th of January presentation and one announcing the 13th of January Treehouse stream. Not exactly an active hype cycle.

Now if you took the same marketing cycle, but reduced the gap between the initial announcement and the in-depth presentation from almost three months to about a month, would that harm sales of the console? I don't think so. In the case of the Switch they presumably wanted to avoid marketing it in November and December to minimise impact on holiday sales of their existing products, hence the initial announcement in October followed by a long quiet gap until January. If they were releasing hardware in, say November, though, there wouldn't be any need for such a long quiet stretch. An initial announcement, followed by a full presentation a month later, and launch two months after that would leave room for just as much hype as Switch got.

That's not to say I think their next hardware will be announced only 3 months before it launches, but I wouldn't rule it out. As I've said before, the current Nintendo leadership team is very different from those that decided the announcement strategies of previous generations, including the Switch, so they could treat hardware announcements very differently than Nintendo has in the past.
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It wouldn't surprise me if it were less than three months. Possibly similar to how the OLED was announced.
 
ziggyrivers said:
Or the eShop $100 digital voucher replaced it. After all, they’re even promoting TOTK with it. They’re even coloring the voucher with Zelda’s theme.
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Yeah I think the vouchers are a home run for them. They've already got my money for TotK and Pikmin 4. Why hope for someone to buy one game on sale when you can make them buy two? Curious if they'll provide sales details for them next week.
 
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