StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

[MadMechanic]

I feel like I am so bad at video games

What kind of magic is this?

 

[Concernt]

I feel like I am so bad at video games

...wrong thread? I think?

 

[ziggyrivers]

I'm totally fine if they don't address AA. I have classic mcable for that :⁠-⁠)

Yeah I'm kinda (50%) expecting a $50 p rice drop too.



I mean I don't exactly need it and have a backlog to catch up too (OT2, Totk, MPR, and half a dozen other games I will know I will never beat) .

I listed 3 possible scenarios a few pages back. That's one of them (imo). It wouldn't hurt to have that Mario game on Drake as well, whether Drake comes out this fall or not. It's easy money for them. But in case Drake doesn't come out this holiday season, Mario+ a price drop could help it get close to 15 million total this year.

There's several Zelda games that contradict this.. Notably two Zelda cross gen that came out within 3 months of each other (TP Wii/GC and Botw Wii U/Switch comes to mind). Someone mentioned Minish Cap as well.

But anyway, we're in uncharted territory. Drake/Switch 2 could come out anywhere as soon as between Q4 2023 - Q1 2024, and there would be a very good chance that Totk with better performance and resolution would be supported on day 1.

I dunno. I think it will be more than likely we'll get DLC for TOTK, considering the trend with the last two Zelda games (AOC a spin off though). It's easy money for them as well. We'll probably here about it month or by the end of summer.

I also think it's very likely they the next Zelda game is gonna be a remaster or remake of an older Zelda game. TP HD, WW HD, and other already released Zelda games are gonna be fillers until their next new Zelda game.

I don’t know how fast the Zelda team can dish out a new Zelda game, but they can keep releasing a Zelda game yearly with WWHD and TPHD either together or separate and an Oracles remake with the Link’s Awakening engine.

There’s also HD Remaster for OOT3D. Or even the remake

 

[Concernt]

I don’t know how fast the Zelda team can dish out a new Zelda game, but they can keep releasing a Zelda game yearly with WWHD and TPHD either together or separate and an Oracles remake with the Link’s Awakening engine.

There’s also HD Remaster for OOT3D. Or even the remake

I desperately want to see more HD remasters of 3DS games. We've gotten so few. Wii U has gotten tonnes of re-releases on Switch. GBA and prior have NSO apps. 3DS is unlikely to get either of those, so remasters seems like the only reasonable path.

Wii and GCN I expect to get NSO apps on the next gen, with DS coming to both gens. Once Nintendo Switch Online - Wii is released for the next system, I think they'll start trickling in full sized Switch games into the subscription. It seems like a natural progression. It's not like Wii U NSO will happen and I doubt 3DS NSO is any more likely. GCN, DS, Wii, Switch (but as individual games includes with your subscription).

More or less slowly cooking NSO until it's a Nintendo Game Pass, perhaps with a third extra premium tier later on that includes day-one releases for Nintendo published games, with the Expansion Pack tier only having say, select 2017 published games in 2026, 2018 in 2027, etc.

 

[Tentacle-tropes]

Gamescom maybe, but Nintendo Live is a family event, there's little reason to use an E3 tier marketing budget for it.

It’s probably what they are using their E3 money on when they would do the tournaments since the Nintendo Live event has that & the concert. In junction with Gamescom would be the entirety of the E3 budget is my guess; if they include demo stations, Treehouse, an elaborate layout, etc..

 

[chocolate_supra]

...wrong thread? I think?

I don't think there's a right thread for this.

This video would make anyone feel bad

 

[kasparov77]

I'm expecting the prices to change in simple but considerable ways. OLED Model will drop $50 to 300 dollars, the original HAC-001(-01) model phased out from sale completely, and Lite kept at $199.99.

This simplifies things hugely for them, and there are components no longer being manufactured that the original model (V2) needs. I doubt they would bother to issue even a tiny revision to integrate newer parts when they already have a refresh on the market with OLED Model.

This also makes space in the pricing scheme for the new system in a super simple way.

199 for the Lite
299 for the OLED
399 for the "New Nintendo Switch"

This isn't unlike the pricing scheme Nintendo had around Switch's launch, with Switch, New 3DS XL and 2DS.

I'd say my confidence for OLED price drop and V2 being phased out is about 80%.

Much like 3DS had New 2DS XL and Wii had Wii Mini, I'd say there's a 60-70% chance of a cheaper model of Tegra X1+ based Switch launching within a year of the new system. I'd say this could either be an OLED Lite at 199.99 to replace the Lite (akin to New 2DS XL), or a Switch TV device that's digital only, set-top, and tiny, launching at 99.99 or 119.99, coming with just a Pro Controller. Targeting the last dregs of people who held out on Switch, as well as developing markets.

Yeah, this makes sense actually. Even if nintendo said they're making little profit with the OLED, I think anyone who believes the narrative that they're dropping prices on the v2 model should ask themselves "why keep v2 production when you can just cease it and essentially replace it with the OLED?".

Not only this decreases production costs by reducing production lines to two products only, but it also keeps the profit margin of the Lite.

 

[kasparov77]

Wait, actually I changed my mind.
@Concernt I don't think nintendo will price cut anything. I think they will release more v2 and maybe even OLED bundles.

It's a strategy they already used with the switch and something they used with the WiiU as well.

Why cut the price of the console when you can sell it in a bundle with a 60$ game? (specially considering how you can sell more DLCs for that title with a now larger userbase).

I can see them doing:
A splatoon 3 bundle: v2 + 3 month NSO + a SP3 digital copy to coincide with the DLC releasing later this year.

A pokemon S/V bundle later using the same logic as the sp3's bundle.

Why I think they won't do a tears of the kingdom bundle though: because to put it simply, that would take away from sales of the recent OLED zelda model and the game's 70$, not 60$. Besides, the voucher thingy exists for a reason.

 

[ShadowFox08]

No sense in tons of compute performance if memory bandwidth will be the limiting factor.

DLSS, cache (4mb L3??), and that physical hardware that helps with compression, could directly and/or indirectly help mitigate some of the bottleneck.

At the very least, we could theoretically get 4k native switch games and native PS4 1080p ports with better detail and fps, all without DLSS. With DLSS, we could get PS4 games at 1440p at least.

I'm expecting the prices to change in simple but considerable ways. OLED Model will drop $50 to 300 dollars, the original HAC-001(-01) model phased out from sale completely, and Lite kept at $199.99.

This simplifies things hugely for them, and there are components no longer being manufactured that the original model (V2) needs. I doubt they would bother to issue even a tiny revision to integrate newer parts when they already have a refresh on the market with OLED Model.

This also makes space in the pricing scheme for the new system in a super simple way.

199 for the Lite
299 for the OLED
399 for the "New Nintendo Switch"

This isn't unlike the pricing scheme Nintendo had around Switch's launch, with Switch, New 3DS XL and 2DS.

I'd say my confidence for OLED price drop and V2 being phased out is about 80%.

Much like 3DS had New 2DS XL and Wii had Wii Mini, I'd say there's a 60-70% chance of a cheaper model of Tegra X1+ based Switch launching within a year of the new system. I'd say this could either be an OLED Lite at 199.99 to replace the Lite (akin to New 2DS XL), or a Switch TV device that's digital only, set-top, and tiny, launching at 99.99 or 119.99, coming with just a Pro Controller. Targeting the last dregs of people who held out on Switch, as well as developing markets.

Yep, I think this will happen too. I've said it many times as well. It's probably the most plausible scenario in my eyes. Whenever Switch 2 gets released.

I don’t know how fast the Zelda team can dish out a new Zelda game, but they can keep releasing a Zelda game yearly with WWHD and TPHD either together or separate and an Oracles remake with the Link’s Awakening engine.

There’s also HD Remaster for OOT3D. Or even the remake

I think older Zelda remasters or remakes take 1.5-3 years. I don't remember how long the developers said SS HD took to port. Close to 2 years? But it was likely a small team, and most of the work was with the controls. Based on a 2016 tease and 2019 release, I think Link's Awakening remake took 3. WWHD and TP HD are probably done and pretty much ready at any time.

The trend of mainline Zelda games, though, is about every two years on Switch, and this doesn't include spin-offs. This list doesn't include 3DS and Wii U Zelda games as well.

March 2017 Botw
September 2019 LA Remake
July 2021 Skyward Sword HD
May 2023 Totk

Based on this, there's a good chance another mainline Zelda game won't be out until 2025. But I don't think WW or TP HD can come out at the earliest in Q4 2024 or Q1-Q2 2025. Who knows. But I have my doubts they'll release those two games at the same time.

 

[Mr Swine]

If Nintendo goal is to sell 15 million Switches for the fiscal year with no price drop then it either means:

1. All software is currently for Switch as Switch 2 software is still at last year away from being complete. Nintendo will release a ton of SE Oled Switch for big games.

2. There is a mix of Switch and Switch 2 software and Nintendo is going to release the Switch 2 later this year together with SE Oled Switch too hot that target.

If Nintendo has a ton of Switch software with a few big games like Mario then I don’t see them releasing Switch 2 as they will keep on making Special Edition Oled Switch to try hit that number. Also having that many titles doesn’t give me much confidence that they will have a new Mario or Zelda game for Switch 2 release

 

[Bonejack]

I don't think there's a right thread for this.

This video would make anyone feel bad

We: "Man, ReDraketed ... what tech will it have, what performance ... yaddayadda."

Nintendo: "Here's groundbreaking everything in the new Zelda, running on our 2017 tablet device. Oh btw. did we mention everything also flawlessy works in combination with each other feature?"

Ultimately, there's a lesson to be learnt here, but i can't figure out the right words.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

If Nintendo goal is to sell 15 million Switches for the fiscal year with no price drop then it either means:

1. All software is currently for Switch as Switch 2 software is still at last year away from being complete. Nintendo will release a ton of SE Oled Switch for big games.

2. There is a mix of Switch and Switch 2 software and Nintendo is going to release the Switch 2 later this year together with SE Oled Switch too hot that target.

If Nintendo has a ton of Switch software with a few big games like Mario then I don’t see them releasing Switch 2 as they will keep on making Special Edition Oled Switch to try hit that number. Also having that many titles doesn’t give me much confidence that they will have a new Mario or Zelda game for Switch 2 release

You present an interesting perspective, but I just realize that the only other game that’s big enough for an OLED model that hasn’t actually received an OLED model, is Mario. It’s possible if there is a special edition OLED model for a Mario theme to coincide with a Mario game releasing later on this year particularly during the holiday season to help it with the sales and it would be a switch 1 ordeal.


Every other game Nintendo has under their belt, only the notable ones actually receive special additions. Pikmin wouldn’t really get a special edition because pikmin is still pretty niche imo.

Same as the others.

Though, to go back to my Mario OLED thing, I can see that as something to attempt to help it. Though Mario has received special editions before but they aren’t the OLED.


So I’m ruling that this holiday, you’ll see a SE OLED Mario.

if they decide to make one for a game.

Animal Crossing also didn’t get one in fairness, but that games has been done for ages.

Mario Kart? Well sorta falls under just MARIO

Anyway, just something curious that can happen.

Well, we know the CPU/GPU for the SoC thanks to the NVIDIA hack.

8 A78C CPU cores (Maybe the off-chance of X1), and 12SMs of Something related to Ampere with the Orin OFA is locked in if it's using Drake.

And considering Drake's only other mention beyond the Linux Kernel (Which confirms the CPU) is inside the API literally called NVN2 that seems like it's the 99% case.

And considering the SoC is likely too big for Samsung 8N, that would probably put it on a process node where its clock curve would be higher than OG Switch clocks when docked.
Therefore it would likely be in the ~3+TFLOP range docked, as even a 1GHz GPU clock would make it 3TFLOPs. 1.3 GHz virtually reaching 4TFLOPs with how big the GPU actually is.

So this thing will be a Compute monster in regards to Perf/Size (ARM helping bring the size/wattage down a lot CPU side, and NVIDIA's architecture being more efficient than AMDs likely too)

Not saying that Memory Bandwidth won't be a limiting factor, but saying that we pretty much know that this thing will be a (relative) compute juggernaut vs other devices in the space. Probably would actually do compute processes better than Series S due to the Tensor Cores being better than that if you threw Drake into a device intended for scientific stuff.

I wonder if they ever decide to keep the A57s, would they make them coprocessors in the SoC.

It’s not uncommon for phone SOCs to actually have more than the normal amount of CPU cores, they tend to just be coprocessors though for like the Modem or something.

latest AMD-based Exynos has A53s (8 of them) strictly for the MODEM iirc.

 

[Dakhil]

I wonder if they ever decide to keep the A57s, would they make them coprocessors in the SoC.

It’s not uncommon for phone SOCs to actually have more than the normal amount of CPU cores, they tend to just be coprocessors though for like the Modem or something.

latest AMD-based Exynos has A53s (8 of them) strictly for the MODEM iirc.

I was thinking one potential problem with including the Cortex-A57 cores in Drake is that the Cortex-A57 doesn't support DynamIQ, hence why the Cortex-A53 cores on the Tegra X1 had to be permanently disabled. And I imagine there's a possibility the Cortex-A78C cores on Drake (here and here) would need to be turned off (except not permanently) in order to use/have access to the Cortex-A57 cores.

And I could be wrong, but the Exynos 5300 modem (?) on the Exynos 2200 (above the RDNA 2 based GPU) seems to be using 8 Cortex-A55 cores, not 8 Cortex-A53 cores, based on comparing the Exynos 2200 die shot with the Exynos 5433 die shot (which has the Cortex-A53) and the Exynos 9820 die shot (which has the Cortex-A55).

Exynos 2200:

Exynos 5433:

Exynos 9820:

 

[fwd-bwd]

I saw this repeated more than a few times, and just wanted to point out that the word "stretch" (ストレッチ) does not appear in Nintendo's official Japanese or English Q&A transcript. On this occasion I wouldn't accuse Bloomberg of misreporting, because Nikkei and Mainichi also had that word in their stories. Nintendo probably decided that the word could be misconstrued, and thus substituted it in the sanctioned version. What they want people to see is this (emphases mine):

"[...] 15 million units is not a goal that we will be able to achieve easily. However, this fiscal year started with the theatrical opening of The Super Mario Bros. Movie and we also plan to release the latest entry in The Legend of Zelda series, which contribute to the acceleration in the Nintendo Switch business"

And elsewhere in the Q&A (emphases mine):

"[...] the release and global success of The Super Mario Bros. Movie will have a positive impact on the Nintendo Switch business. Add to that the May 12 release of The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom, and we are experiencing very good tailwinds in the seventh year"

So unlikely Mochizuki or some other commentators, I don't think that Furuwaka was projecting any sort of uncertainty but rather showing quiet confidence in reaching the goal. As mentioned in my previously post, Nintendo tends to lowball their new FY forecasts; even when they had to lower the hardware sales projection twice in FY03/2023, in the end they beat their profit forecast regardless. It'd follow that the 15MM goal isn't exactly a mission impossible, and IMHO may not preclude the possibility of a new model announcement within this FY.

For the same reason I don't see much pressure for Nintendo to reduce the hardware price. Their annual net profit ratio has been better than Apple's (!), and they most likely want to maintain that.

Nintendo Co.	Net profit margin	Apple Inc.	Net profit margin
FY03/2023	27.0%	FY09/2022	24.49%
FY03/2022	28.2%	FY09/2021	27.94%
FY03/2021	27.3%	FY09/2020	23.44%

P.S.: When the phrase "uncharted territory" was first uttered in last quarter's earnings call, I was puzzled by the admission. Furukawa used it again this quarter, and it dawned on me that the management possibly considers it a badge of honor:

"In the history of our dedicated video game platform business, we have never anticipated sales of 15 million units of hardware and 180 million units of software in the seventh year for a system, so we see ourselves as having entered uncharted territory."

It's an aw-shucks humblebrag.

 

[KeijiKG]

I feel like I am so bad at video games

Strange, I'm not in the Tears of Kingdom topic....

 

[ziggyrivers]

I saw this repeated more than a few times, and just wanted to point out that the word "stretch" (ストレッチ) does not appear in Nintendo's official Japanese or English Q&A transcript. On this occasion I wouldn't accuse Bloomberg of misreporting, because Nikkei and Mainichi also had that word in their stories. Nintendo probably decided that the word could be misconstrued, and thus substituted it in the sanctioned version. What they want people to see is this (emphases mine):

"[...] 15 million units is not a goal that we will be able to achieve easily. However, this fiscal year started with the theatrical opening of The Super Mario Bros. Movie and we also plan to release the latest entry in The Legend of Zelda series, which contribute to the acceleration in the Nintendo Switch business"

And elsewhere in the Q&A (emphases mine):

"[...] the release and global success of The Super Mario Bros. Movie will have a positive impact on the Nintendo Switch business. Add to that the May 12 release of The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom, and we are experiencing very good tailwinds in the seventh year"

So unlikely Mochizuki or some other commentators, I don't think that Furuwaka was projecting any sort of uncertainty but rather showing quiet confidence in reaching the goal. As mentioned in my previously post, Nintendo tends to lowball their new FY forecasts; even when they had to lower the hardware sales projection twice in FY03/2023, in the end they beat their profit forecast regardless. It'd follow that the 15MM goal isn't exactly a mission impossible, and IMHO may not preclude the possibility of a new model announcement within this FY.

For the same reason I don't see much pressure for Nintendo to reduce the hardware price. Their annual net profit ratio has been better than Apple's (!), and they most likely want to maintain that.

Nintendo Co.	Net profit margin	Apple Inc.	Net profit margin
FY03/2023	27.0%	FY09/2022	24.49%
FY03/2022	28.2%	FY09/2021	27.94%
FY03/2021	27.3%	FY09/2020	23.44%

P.S.: When the phrase "uncharted territory" was first uttered in last quarter's earnings call, I was puzzled by the admission. Furukawa used it again this quarter, and it dawned on me that the management possibly considers it a badge of honor:

"In the history of our dedicated video game platform business, we have never anticipated sales of 15 million units of hardware and 180 million units of software in the seventh year for a system, so we see ourselves as having entered uncharted territory."

It's an aw-shucks humblebrag.

I’m getting more inclined into Team 2024. Spring or Holiday. They seem comfortably optimistic

 

[Vash_the_Stampede]

...wrong thread? I think?

Yea, my bad.

 

[LitKai]

Team May 10, 2024

 

[BDGAME]

I didn't hear of them losing access to the kits until late spring/early summer 2022 -- May thru July window.

Is possible that the Kit they do a recall was the Switch PRO Kit, that got cancelled, and not the Switch 2 Kit?

 

[Hermii]

Is possible that the Kit they do a recall was the Switch PRO Kit, that got cancelled, and not the Switch 2 Kit?

Pro/ 2 is a meaningless distinction imo. Most likely both devices were powered by Drake.

Imo what could have happened was a delay/ rebrand/ redesign. Maybe add a new (non soc related) feature or two.

 

[ziggyrivers]

Question: are dev kits manufactured in-house or are they made in a factory?

I ask this because of a random thought:

 

[Bonejack]

Question: are dev kits manufactured in-house or are they made in a factory?

I ask this because of a random thought:
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *

Depending of how early they are, they look like they've been made by McGyver in an attempt to flee from some prison.

 

[lexony]

* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *

Gamescom is for sure not the right event to secretly show dev kits of a new console (this would leak in an instant) but I wouldn‘t call the biggest gaming convention in the world by attendees a niche event.

 

[ziggyrivers]

Gamescom is for sure not the right event to secretly show dev kits of a new console (this would leak in an instant) but I wouldn‘t call the biggest gaming convention in the world by attendees a niche event.

How common is it for console makers to show devkits in said event?

 

[Ghostsonplanets]

How common is it for console makers to show devkits in said event?

Not devkits, but showing your upcoming console to devs used to be very common pre-covid. Skyrim for Switch was greenlighted after Nintendo showed Switch concept to Bethesda in a closed-doors E3 meeting iirc

 

[lexony]

How common is it for console makers to show devkits in said event?

I‘ve no idea. At least unreleased games get shown all the time behind closed doors at gamescom. But as for a unreleased console or even only devkits I feel like it is quite a high risk, though not impossible, I‘m sure it happened in the past depending on how far it was until the release of the hardware. Still gamescom is a very public event and business meetings usually for already announced stuff.

 

[ziggyrivers]

Not devkits, but showing your upcoming console to devs used to be very common pre-covid. Skyrim for Switch was greenlighted after Nintendo showed Switch concept to Bethesda in a closed-doors E3 meeting iirc

Thanks for the clarification. If Nintendo already has a built Switch successor, it could be just for presentation purposes to 3rd parties, see if they get interest and then send the dev kit to them.

That said, if the Drake is releasing late 2023 or at some point in 2024, it’s possible Nintendo has a pipeline of first party software for it and already gave dev kits to a handful of 3rd parties that are more important to them. The rest of 3rd parties will slowly get theirs. I’m sure Nintendo has the first two years of the Switchccesor’s software planned out, which is why I think we haven’t seen anything for 2H. It wouldn’t surprise me if we get a Direct Mini June if they still aren’t ready to fully reveal their cards for the second half of the year. Maybe drop a big Direct in August or September

 

[BloodMoon]

TotK sold over 10M in its first three days, that’s on par with Pokemon SV which is quite insane.

(Posting here as software sales are quite relevant to the discussion)

 

[EdFiftyNine]

TotK sold over 10M in its first three days, that’s on par with Pokemon SV which is quite insane.

(Posting here as software sales are quite relevant to the discussion)

It shows how ambitious 15m switches sold is. If every single person that bought TOTK bought a Switch alongside it, they’d still be 5m short.

Obviously TOTK is going to continue soaring but man that is A LOT of Switches!

 

[ziggyrivers]

In case anyone needs a reference:

The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom sales top 10 million in first three days

The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom sold over 10 million units in the three days since its launch on May 12, making it the fastest selling game in the history of The Legend of Zelda series, N…

www.gematsu.com

It’s the fastest selling Zelda game and best-selling game in the Americas. This game is easily gonna reach BOTW’s numbers, surpass them and the DLC will most certainly maintain momentum

 

[TomNookYankees]

I desperately want to see more HD remasters of 3DS games. We've gotten so few. Wii U has gotten tonnes of re-releases on Switch. GBA and prior have NSO apps. 3DS is unlikely to get either of those, so remasters seems like the only reasonable path.

Wii and GCN I expect to get NSO apps on the next gen, with DS coming to both gens. Once Nintendo Switch Online - Wii is released for the next system, I think they'll start trickling in full sized Switch games into the subscription. It seems like a natural progression. It's not like Wii U NSO will happen and I doubt 3DS NSO is any more likely. GCN, DS, Wii, Switch (but as individual games includes with your subscription).

More or less slowly cooking NSO until it's a Nintendo Game Pass, perhaps with a third extra premium tier later on that includes day-one releases for Nintendo published games, with the Expansion Pack tier only having say, select 2017 published games in 2026, 2018 in 2027, etc.

Why would you expect GCN/Wii NSO and NDS NSO but not 3DS NSO? If Nintendo’s hardware is able to emulate the control scheme of the NDS and can run emulators of hardware as powerful as the Wii I don’t see why it wouldn’t be able to run 3DS emulation.

 

[invwar]

Thanks for the clarification. If Nintendo already has a built Switch successor, it could be just for presentation purposes to 3rd parties, see if they get interest and then send the dev kit to them.

That said, if the Drake is releasing late 2023 or at some point in 2024, it’s possible Nintendo has a pipeline of first party software for it and already gave dev kits to a handful of 3rd parties that are more important to them. The rest of 3rd parties will slowly get theirs. I’m sure Nintendo has the first two years of the Switchccesor’s software planned out, which is why I think we haven’t seen anything for 2H. It wouldn’t surprise me if we get a Direct Mini June if they still aren’t ready to fully reveal their cards for the second half of the year. Maybe drop a big Direct in August or September

Trustworthy 3rd Parties will be involved very early in the process, like Capcom, who asked for more RAM for the Switch. Gamescom/E3 showcases are for the 3rd Parties who are not yet involved, so minor ones or some who were not yet partnered. Thats why we got as mentioned Skyrim, Bethesda had no relation with Nintendo before Skyrim for Switch. These are the partners Nintendo will attract. For Gamescom this could be foremost all the Embracer Group subsidies (THQ and Plaion) and Focus Entertainment. Getting them on board would be a win for Nintendo.

 

[invwar]

In case anyone needs a reference:

The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom sales top 10 million in first three days

The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom sold over 10 million units in the three days since its launch on May 12, making it the fastest selling game in the history of The Legend of Zelda series, N…

www.gematsu.com

It’s the fastest selling Zelda game and best-selling game in the Americas. This game is easily gonna reach BOTW’s numbers, surpass them and the DLC will most certainly maintain momentum

A total of 2.24 million units were sold in Japan.

Holy moly, 2.24m in Japan? Zelda was always a western franchise (not as extreme as Metroid, but with an around 1:5 ratio usually. Before Breath of the Wild was already a huge success, but it also implies that it is the most successful Zelda ever in Japan from the get go.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Also, Pokémon SV did like 10M in 3 days, ACNH did 13M in like 2 weeks.


Why are we shocked about TOTK doing 15M in a month

Did I stutter

 

[Sin Drive]

It shows how ambitious 15m switches sold is. If every single person that bought TOTK bought a Switch alongside it, they’d still be 5m short.

Obviously TOTK is going to continue soaring but man that is A LOT of Switches!

Bro, that's 10 million in three days. If anything, it shows how much more probable that is, according to what you're saying. I don't know how'd you chalk that up to that being against the 15 million.

 

[EdFiftyNine]

Bro, that's 10 million in three days. If anything, it shows how much more probable that is, according to what you're saying. I don't know how'd you chalk that up to that being against the 15 million.

It’s less of a comment on if the 15 million is possible and more a comment about getting my head around how big a pile of 15m switches would be if that makes sense!

 

[kvetcha]

It’s less of a comment on if the 15 million is possible and more a comment about getting my head around how big a pile of 15m switches would be if that makes sense!

it is a pretty large pile

 

[ziggyrivers]

it is a pretty large pile

Since it’s for the fiscal year, it’d be, like, 1,250,000 per month. But a bulk of yearly sales are from the Holidays

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

They aren’t selling only SE OLEDs.

 

[ILikeFeet]

two videos really relevant to this thread

 

[O. W. Funnyname]

Why would you expect GCN/Wii NSO and NDS NSO but not 3DS NSO? If Nintendo’s hardware is able to emulate the control scheme of the NDS and can run emulators of hardware as powerful as the Wii I don’t see why it wouldn’t be able to run 3DS emulation.

I think it's less about power and more because of the 3DS's screen setup (both its top and bottom screens probably won't be able to fully fit on a single screen in Switch's handheld mode).

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

There are plenty of ways to fit two screens on one screen, depending on the nature of the game. 3DS might have it easier than DS, even. With the screens being so different, fewer games used them for a combined tall playfield.

 

[TomNookYankees]

I think it's less about power and more because of the 3DS's screen setup (both its top and bottom screens probably won't be able to fully fit on a single screen in Switch's handheld mode).

Why would the DS be able to fit but not the 3DS though? Even if we were to assume the Switch successor has only a 720p screen, that would be enough pixels to emulate the 3DS doing side by side screens.

 

[Deleted member 887]

Re: Zelda sales, I'm going to risk quoting myself

It's a little hard to game the numbers out, as sales charts only report physical sales, but Nintendo will sometimes drop press releases about total sales for big games. But Scarlet/Violet did 10 million in its first 3 days, according to Nintendo. If I had to make a guesstimate, that represents a ceiling on the speed of sales for Switch games, which are somewhat throttled by Nintendo's ability to physically create and ship carts.

This is from my argument for why Tears won't outsell Breath of the Wild. The install base is much larger, the anticipation is high, but I think it's unlikely that there is something in Tears that appeals to a large segment of gamers who weren't into the last game. So Tears will burn through a decent chunk of it's lifetime sales earlier on, but have a shorter tail, as the platform isn't growing at the same rate

If Tears does burn as hot and fast as Pokemon then we would expect to see 50% of lifetime sales in the first week or so, 15 million.

Which is what we are on pace for.

"[...] 15 million units is not a goal that we will be able to achieve easily. However, this fiscal year started with the theatrical opening of The Super Mario Bros. Movie and we also plan to release the latest entry in The Legend of Zelda series, which contribute to the acceleration in the Nintendo Switch business"

[snip]

When the phrase "uncharted territory" was first uttered in last quarter's earnings call, I was puzzled by the admission. Furukawa used it again this quarter, and it dawned on me that the management possibly considers it a badge of honor:

That's also my read on the phrase - that seemed to be the context Bowser was using when he echoed it later to the AP.

To fold these two sales threads together, and bring it back to hardware...

There is something in statistical analysis called "ceiling and floor effects." Almost everything you look at has a ceiling (like a maximum number of possible sales, ie the population of Earth) and a floor (zero sales). When ceilings and floors are far away from the actual things you're measuring, then data tends to spread out nicely, but when one of them gets close, you get data points bunching up together, screwing up your averages.

Which brings us to @Thraktor's oft documented announced games. The more I think about it, the more I suspect that this is a ceiling effect. Even if we're talking holiday 2024 for REDACTED, we are at the end of the generation. Announce a game a year in advance now, and you won't have any games to announce later, until it's time to launch the next console. Even if Nintendo is planning a bunch of cross-gen games, they still likely want to showcase those on the new hardware first, to maximize hunger for the new device.

Zelda will move units, primarily through the special edition, folks replacing hardware with the OLED, or even just knackered V1s. My close friend is buying a second Switch because since buying his first, his daughter had grown up enough to play Breath of the Wild and become a Zelda fan, and so she's due to get a Lite of her own. But it won't move 15 million. Nintendo is basically saying that they'll see 0% drop in hardware sales this year.

Nintendo needs one more shot of adrenaline to ride out the Switch, something that will move units, something to goose the holiday season which had broader appeal than Zelda, and will convince folks to buy Switches. Something with a strong younger market/first console appeal, and not Pokemon, because that's got extended support coming up.

I dunno Fami, maybe the next Mario isn't a REDACTED launch title at all...

 

[TSR3]

Team May 10, 2024

I like your specificity

 

[ziggyrivers]

I dunno Fami, maybe the next Mario isn't a REDACTED launch title at all...

It’s looking like that. It’s either a very big AAA game or a Switch price reduction, which is out of the pic

 

[Concernt]

Re: Zelda sales, I'm going to risk quoting myself


This is from my argument for why Tears won't outsell Breath of the Wild. The install base is much larger, the anticipation is high, but I think it's unlikely that there is something in Tears that appeals to a large segment of gamers who weren't into the last game. So Tears will burn through a decent chunk of it's lifetime sales earlier on, but have a shorter tail, as the platform isn't growing at the same rate


Which is what we are on pace for.


[snip]

That's also my read on the phrase - that seemed to be the context Bowser was using when he echoed it later to the AP.

To fold these two sales threads together, and bring it back to hardware...

There is something in statistical analysis called "ceiling and floor effects." Almost everything you look at has a ceiling (like a maximum number of possible sales, ie the population of Earth) and a floor (zero sales). When ceilings and floors are far away from the actual things you're measuring, then data tends to spread out nicely, but when one of them gets close, you get data points bunching up together, screwing up your averages.

Which brings us to @Thraktor's oft documented announced games. The more I think about it, the more I suspect that this is a ceiling effect. Even if we're talking holiday 2024 for REDACTED, we are at the end of the generation. Announce a game a year in advance now, and you won't have any games to announce later, until it's time to launch the next console. Even if Nintendo is planning a bunch of cross-gen games, they still likely want to showcase those on the new hardware first, to maximize hunger for the new device.

Zelda will move units, primarily through the special edition, folks replacing hardware with the OLED, or even just knackered V1s. My close friend is buying a second Switch because since buying his first, his daughter had grown up enough to play Breath of the Wild and become a Zelda fan, and so she's due to get a Lite of her own. But it won't move 15 million. Nintendo is basically saying that they'll see 0% drop in hardware sales this year.

Nintendo needs one more shot of adrenaline to ride out the Switch, something that will move units, something to goose the holiday season which had broader appeal than Zelda, and will convince folks to buy Switches. Something with a strong younger market/first console appeal, and not Pokemon, because that's got extended support coming up.

I dunno Fami, maybe the next Mario isn't a REDACTED launch title at all...

I think the next 2D Mario is Switch 1 and/or Cross-Gen and probably coming before the next 3D Mario, so that sounds right.

Could still be a launch title, though.

 

[ziggyrivers]

I think the next 2D Mario is Switch 1 and/or Cross-Gen and probably coming before the next 3D Mario, so that sounds right.

Could still be a launch title, though.

I also thought of that, but trying to see how Nintendo will transition seems kinda difficult. I think the closest transition reference we can use for the Switch is the DS > 3DS

 

[Dizzle]

Could i get a reminder on what the separate streams are for rumors about future 2D and 3D Marios? I vaguely remember these being distinct rumors, but don't remember the sources.

 

[TSR3]

Re: Zelda sales, I'm going to risk quoting myself


This is from my argument for why Tears won't outsell Breath of the Wild. The install base is much larger, the anticipation is high, but I think it's unlikely that there is something in Tears that appeals to a large segment of gamers who weren't into the last game. So Tears will burn through a decent chunk of it's lifetime sales earlier on, but have a shorter tail, as the platform isn't growing at the same rate


Which is what we are on pace for.


[snip]

That's also my read on the phrase - that seemed to be the context Bowser was using when he echoed it later to the AP.

To fold these two sales threads together, and bring it back to hardware...

There is something in statistical analysis called "ceiling and floor effects." Almost everything you look at has a ceiling (like a maximum number of possible sales, ie the population of Earth) and a floor (zero sales). When ceilings and floors are far away from the actual things you're measuring, then data tends to spread out nicely, but when one of them gets close, you get data points bunching up together, screwing up your averages.

Which brings us to @Thraktor's oft documented announced games. The more I think about it, the more I suspect that this is a ceiling effect. Even if we're talking holiday 2024 for REDACTED, we are at the end of the generation. Announce a game a year in advance now, and you won't have any games to announce later, until it's time to launch the next console. Even if Nintendo is planning a bunch of cross-gen games, they still likely want to showcase those on the new hardware first, to maximize hunger for the new device.

Zelda will move units, primarily through the special edition, folks replacing hardware with the OLED, or even just knackered V1s. My close friend is buying a second Switch because since buying his first, his daughter had grown up enough to play Breath of the Wild and become a Zelda fan, and so she's due to get a Lite of her own. But it won't move 15 million. Nintendo is basically saying that they'll see 0% drop in hardware sales this year.

Nintendo needs one more shot of adrenaline to ride out the Switch, something that will move units, something to goose the holiday season which had broader appeal than Zelda, and will convince folks to buy Switches. Something with a strong younger market/first console appeal, and not Pokemon, because that's got extended support coming up.

I dunno Fami, maybe the next Mario isn't a REDACTED launch title at all...

I'm gonna risk quoting myself (quoting the officially translated Q&A, with my emphasis) as well ...

From Q6 (about sales decreases) "...The Super Mario Bros. Movie and we also plan to release the latest entry in The Legend of Zelda series, which contribute to the acceleration in the Nintendo Switch business that we are working towards in its seventh year since launch. Our aim is to leverage this momentum into maximizing sales during the holiday season to achieve our sales plans"

And I liked this prediction for it's specificity as well ...

So I’m ruling that this holiday, you’ll see a SE OLED Mario.