Well, is on Capcom's best interest to report massive sales during the quarter. Remember that investors are a fickle bunch and not always very rational. If they see lower sales than previous entry for the launch period then it will likely impact negatively Capcom stock, even if temporary that is a headache that Capcom does not need.
I just see it possible in two scenarios:
- The game is multiplataform, therefore being a much less effective as a flagship launch title.
- Nintendo gives a massive moneyhat.
If MH6 happens to align with Switch 2's launch, then I can see it being a launch title, but I don't see Nintendo relying on a multipat game to carry the launch period. I don't think Nintendo would be willing to the extremely high tag it would command to have the title as an exclusive launch title. If Nintendo decides to moneyhat MH (again) it will be like 4 or Rise: launching after the system has a solid user base and therefore needing much less money to secure.