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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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Concernt said:
What? Why would either part be on the card at this point?

How is that relevant to when it releases?

Was Kitakami on the card at launch?

What card is this anyway?
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Well, yes, Teal Mask DLC is on the cart of the "complete pack" of ScarVio that launches on November 3rd.

Indigo Disc isn't.
 
Charamiwa said:
I think over the years the Metroid downplaying has become a bit ridiculous. People online have become more aware of sales numbers over the years, which is cool, but can warp some perspectives because Nintendo clearly doesn't only think in terms of pure raw numbers. We went from "Metroid is a top 3 Nintendo franchise" to "Metroid is niche and barely matters" which is a huge overcorrection. I'm glad Nintendo clearly doesn't think that way, because you don't announce Prime 4 the way you did, cancel it because it's not good enough, reboot it, apologize for it, and give Retro the game for years and allowing them to recruit massively for it if it's just another niche game. They knew just showing a logo would have fans lose their shit, they knew the importance of getting it right when they rebooted it. By the time it releases it will have surely become one of the most expensive projects Nintendo has ever put out. So why do they bother? Because the core appeal is massive, and a HD big budget Prime game, especially enhanced for next gen, has the potential to turn a lot of heads in a way most Nintendo game simply can't. Especially if it's used as a graphical showpiece.

That's the current value of Metroid Prime, and with a release close to a big new console and the massive marketing spotlight it would be put under, on top of the aura the series has accumulated over the years (the Remaster casually getting a 94 MC in 2023 can attest to this) it can raise that bar further. It's frustrating because we still can't know the true appeal of a big new Metroid Prime game in the Switch era, but I've always thought it was high, at least much higher than the current 3M ceiling for the franchise.
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To be clear, I do think MP4 will hit around 4-5 million units. But it’d take an Act of God to cross 10 million (one that I’d welcome with open arms), especially with Japan not caring about the franchise. Nintendo tends to be realistic with what they expect regarding sales, & we should follow suit. Especially when it comes to a system launch, where Nintendo will need the mainstream market (who usually don’t care about the likes of Metroid) to repeat the success of the Switch 1.

Metroid IS a niche franchise, & that’s ok. Xenoblade has kept going despite its modest sales, & that’s because (again) Nintendo is reasonable with sales expectations. MP4 has the potential to help Metroid rise up to Kirby/DK levels in the mid-tier like Pikmin is on track to do with Pikmin 4. But Metroid isn’t a heavy-hitter like Mario/Zelda/Smash/Splatoon/Animal Crossing/Mario Kart, nor should we expect Metroid to reach those highs anytime soon.
 
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redmutineer75 said:
With an October-November launch they get an extra 7-8 months of production compared to a March launch. Simple as that.
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Launching in November 2027 is even better, with 44 extra months of production compared to March 2024.
darthdiablo said:
Has it always been like that historically? (Reveal first then production)
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Most new generations have had much longer reveal-release times than Switch, so that's probably an easy yes. Definitely there are hardware models that were in production before announcement, though.
Concernt said:
People who want 3D Mario to sell well.
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Super Mario World, Super Mario 64, Wii Sports, Breath of the Wild... launch games can end up selling as well as anything else that follows in later months and years.
Blue Monty said:
Switch launch was quite mutted all things considered, it sold ‘just’ 1.5m units first week and then another 15m during the next FY. Launch aligned PS4/PS5 sold more than Switch during the first year of all three consoles

Switch didnt become a powerhouse sales wise WW until 2019 and especially during 2020.
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Launch-aligned Wii, PS4, and Switch are essentially co-kings at the 1 year mark. PS5 not far behind.
gWTSNMN.png

It did take until 2020 for Switch to stop trading spots with PS4 and be permanently ahead launch-aligned, though.
 
Giancarlo said:
next 3D Mario could be this huge mainstream release, Switch sucessor need to be a sucess, despite Metroid been a amazing franchise, it dont sell what it deserve, sadly Metroid is not a system seller(despite the high quality of most of the franchise)
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I mean I agree but I'm willing to see what MP4 is. If it continues the overall game design of the first 3 then it's just a bad option. But if it takes a leap forward then it's not impossible to suggest it becomes a breakout for the series.
D36 said:
I wanna articulate my points a bit better here:

Next year, Nintendo will once again have two systems to make games for, one of which will still have a 100+ install base that can't be ignored, so, in conjunction with an extended cross-gen period, they may want to have a launch that isn't too alienating, yet still enticing to early adopters. That doesn't mean that they can't release with something, like a 3D Mario or a Mario Kart, but I'm positive that they won't be cross-gen and the demand for those titles and the new system itself won't be met. Yes, Nintendo can make up for it, as they'll be evergreen titles, but I think Nintendo will want more favorable immediate results and that could be accomplished by releasing those titles during the Holidays or at least far enough from launch.
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That part right there makes a lot of your point kind of moot if I'm going to be honest. I genuinely think we have a stark difference in perspective of how Nintendo can get rolling with the Switch 2. You seem to be in favor with a more lowkey launch filled with smaller games and cross gen titles. I believe in maximizing hype at launch while delivering a steady supply of games post launch. I'm already assuming cross-gen and small titles. I think a big headliner sends the hype into overdrive that helps Nintendo get their standing for the rest of the decade. The Switch 2 needs to stand out.

a small install base won't keep a 3d mario or Mario Kart game from selling well after launch. It's irrelevant and we saw that with the Switch.

ziggyrivers said:
I think this is a possible scenario:
• Switch 2 will launch next March with crossgen Prime 4 to coast on hardcore Nintendo fans and live off of backwards compatible for the first few months

• Successor will go wild with exclusive 3D Mario in October and Pokemon in November
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Yeah this seems like one of the possible scenarios for sure even if I think there should be another sizeable game in between March and October, and no I'm not talking TTYD crossgen lmao. A Q2 launch may make this more palatable. It's hard to say if this would work or not because we have no clue what 3rd party or smaller Nintendo games will come out in this period and I'm just iffy on assuming the most optimistic view there lmao. But yes a Mario/Pokemon combo for the holidays will be good, even if the Pokemon game is a remake.
 
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Bonejack said:
Well, yes, Teal Mask DLC is on the cart of the "complete pack" of ScarVio that launches on November 3rd.

Indigo Disc isn't.
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Saying "Well yes" while not answering the questions posed isn't very helpful...

As for that announcement, the Nintendo Life article has this interesting line:

"not that it will be appearing in this physical form, of course..."

Wonder what they mean by that. A second reprint next year, perhaps?

That wouldn't be too unusual, reprints tend to use the latest update, so reprints after Part 2 is out should have it.

But that doesn't tell us which way or when Part 2 launches- and certainly doesn't tell us whether it's this year or next.
 
I wouldn't be surprised if F-Zero or Wave Race made it's way to the NG Switch early on. It would fill the void (temporarily) until a new Mario Kart emerged. It certainly couldn't hurt as it would introduce a newer audience to the games and capitalize on the new platform spotlight.

On second thought, this strategy could work on many lapsed Nintendo IP.
 
ILikeFeet said:
Part 2 isn't on the card, so it's not launching this year
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I was always in the early 2024 crowd for the DLC, but Mario Kart is in the same boat despite wave 6 due by the end of the year (and officially "holiday").

All not being on the card means is that the DLC couldn't be finished by the time they needed to print cards for holiday sales.
 
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Neoxon said:
To be clear, I do think MP4 will hit around 4-5 million units. But it’d take an Act of God to cross 10 million (one that I’d welcome with open arms), especially with Japan not caring about the franchise. Nintendo tends to be realistic with what they expect regarding sales, & we should follow suit. Especially when it comes to a system launch, where Nintendo will need the mainstream market (who usually don’t care about the likes of Metroid) to repeat the success of the Switch 1.

Metroid IS a niche franchise, & that’s ok. Xenoblade has kept going despite its modest sales, & that’s because (again) Nintendo is reasonable with sales expectations. MP4 has the potential to help Metroid rise up to Kirby/DK levels in the mid-tier like Pikmin is on track to do with Pikmin 4. But Metroid isn’t a heavy-hitter like Mario/Zelda/Smash/Splatoon/Animal Crossing/Mario Kart, nor should we expect Metroid to reach those highs anytime soon.
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Yeah, that's the problem I see. Even if Metroid does well overall, Nintendo is more focused on sales in Japan, and Metroid simply doesn't have the popularity compared to other Nintendo franchises.
 
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Metroid, especially Metroid Prime is absolutely a prestige franchise for Nintendo, and they rightfully understand that (now) with the due diligence they're giving to 4's development.

That doesn't mean it will have the necessary appeal to carry a console launch. It can certainly help a console launch but it will likely not be considered a centerpiece for launch, the way a 3D Mario or Zelda would be, just due to the innate appeal of the series.
 
D36 said:
I think next year will be remakes.
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Yeah it's almost assuredly something to do with Unova, either a remake or a Legends like game. The main Pokemon leaker is making it very obvious, and I guess the next DLC technically being in the Unova region does that too cause they always plan these things out ahead of time.
 
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Concernt said:
Saying "Well yes" while not answering the questions posed isn't very helpful...

As for that announcement, the Nintendo Life article has this interesting line:

"not that it will be appearing in this physical form, of course..."

Wonder what they mean by that. A second reprint next year, perhaps?

That wouldn't be too unusual, reprints tend to use the latest update, so reprints after Part 2 is out should have it.

But that doesn't tell us which way or when Part 2 launches- and certainly doesn't tell us whether it's this year or next.
Click to expand...
it at least tells us that Part 2 won't release this year, unless they want to launch very close to the end of the year, which would be weird. given the rumor said that DLC2 would have the graphics upgrade for Drake, it keeps it in the running, if only just
 
ILikeFeet said:
it at least tells us that Part 2 won't release this year, unless they want to launch very close to the end of the year, which would be weird. given the rumor said that DLC2 would have the graphics upgrade for Drake, it keeps it in the running, if only just
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It doesn't seem to tell us that clearly at all- "Winter 2023" at least in business terms, usually means December. But they want to launch the physical edition in November before the holiday gifting season begins. That makes sense. Certainly doesn't imply anything about the date of part 2.
 
Don't think Metroid needs Japan to sell beyond 5 million units if it has that western appeal, anyway. A lot of Sony's franchises don't seem to sell amazingly there, but they've cracked over 10 million units just fine. I know, I know, different markets and Metroid's still unproven in that regard, just humoring the prospect.
 
I think they’ll hit us with the 1-2 punch like they did with Sinnoh only it will be Unova this time.

Legends Kyurem
BDSP-esque or Let’s go Unova
 
Neoxon said:
To be clear, I do think MP4 will hit around 4-5 million units. But it’d take an Act of God to cross 10 million (one that I’d welcome with open arms), especially with Japan not caring about the franchise. Nintendo tends to be realistic with what they expect regarding sales, & we should follow suit. Especially when it comes to a system launch, where Nintendo will need the mainstream market (who usually don’t care about the likes of Metroid) to repeat the success of the Switch 1.

Metroid IS a niche franchise, & that’s ok. Xenoblade has kept going despite its modest sales, & that’s because (again) Nintendo is reasonable with sales expectations. MP4 has the potential to help Metroid rise up to Kirby/DK levels in the mid-tier like Pikmin is on track to do with Pikmin 4. But Metroid isn’t a heavy-hitter like Mario/Zelda/Smash/Splatoon/Animal Crossing/Mario Kart, nor should we expect Metroid to reach those highs anytime soon.
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But it can still be a launch title.....

Runs away
 
The big issue again with Retro and Metroid as a studio is Retro being in Austin and doing no support work.

Jason Schreier gave a cost estimate of $10k per month per employee around 5 years ago for a AAA game. Assuming 20% higher than that due to general inflation and Austin (this could be higher), we're now at $12k per month per employee for Retro. Retro has 150 to 200 employees at any time so their monthly costs are at least $1.8m a month

They will have spent at least 6 years working exclusively on Prime Remastered+Prime 4. This leads to a minimum cost of those games of $129.6m. However, this is before you consider

1. Metroid Prime Remastered and Metroid Prime 4 have had massive outsourcing support that was extremely expensive (and they've promoted how expensive this outsourcing work was in their job ads)

2. AAA games usually have $100m to $150m in advertising after release.

So we're looking at Prime 4+Prime Remastered having a total cost of approaching $300m.

(This is after 5 years of no released production that likely approached $100m with revenue generated of $0)

So it's just very expensive as a franchise to continue just to "show that Nintendo systems has big games aimed at more adult gamers." Especially now as Nintendo doesn't need to make their own games like Metroid anymore to avoid that image. The Switch 2 will likely get Mortal Kombat and Cyberpunk 2077 ports near launch. So we will see.

(I think Prime 4 is doing some form of live service stuff like Doom Eternal but that was weird and I don't think it worked that much for Doom Eternal, lol)
 
I've said it before and I'll say it again: Don't use the launches of other console manufacturers, especially Sony, to try and gauge an acceptable launch lineup for the Switch successor.

When you buy a PlayStation home console at launch, there is an implicit assurance that it will receive every non-first-party game (barring exclusivity deals), day-and-date, for the next 6 to 7 years. This is why Sony can afford to launch with a bunch of multiplats (which are also the best-looking versions of those games unless you own a high-end PC), cross-gen games and a smaller exclusive or two. Nintendo does not have that luxury.

If the next Switch is a big success and becomes a legit platform to play third-party games, not one where the norm is to not expect notable third-party releases at launch, if at all, then Nintendo may, just may get away with a lighter, more Sony-like launch window for their following system. Until then, they have to build huge momentum out of the gate with their own heavy-hitters.
 
Neoxon said:
A launch title, yes. But not THE launch title, not if Nintendo wants a repeat of the Switch 1’s successful launch.
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Switch 2 will replicate Switch 1's success, even if it had 3DS tier launch. All they need is a constant stream of good games and heavy hitters while also being carried by BC.
 
darthdiablo said:
And Mario always sold better than Zelda.

That's sorta the point I was making.
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Skittzo said:
Metroid, especially Metroid Prime is absolutely a prestige franchise for Nintendo, and they rightfully understand that (now) with the due diligence they're giving to 4's development.

That doesn't mean it will have the necessary appeal to carry a console launch. It can certainly help a console launch but it will likely not be considered a centerpiece for launch, the way a 3D Mario or Zelda would be, just due to the innate appeal of the series.
Click to expand...
Can you be a prestige franchise if you have to really book it to sell a million or so copies even if it reviews well?

I’m honestly asking.
 
John Omaha said:
I've said it before and I'll say it again: Don't use the launches of other console manufacturers, especially Sony, to try and gauge an acceptable launch lineup for the Switch successor.

When you buy a PlayStation home console at launch, there is an implicit assurance that it will receive every non-first-party game (barring exclusivity deals), day-and-date, for the next 6 to 7 years. This is why Sony can afford to launch with a bunch of multiplats (which are also the best-looking versions of those games unless you own a high-end PC), cross-gen games and a smaller exclusive or two. Nintendo does not have that luxury.

If the next Switch is a big success and becomes a legit platform to play third-party games, not one where the norm is to not expect notable third-party releases at launch, if at all, then Nintendo may, just may get away with a lighter, more Sony-like launch window for their following system. Until then, they have to build huge momentum out of the gate with their own heavy-hitters.
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The DS had nothing at launch and was one of the three best selling game systems of all time.
 
Has Nintendo released physical games with only parts of DLC included on the cartridge previously?
First MK8D with a physical release in Japan that includes waves 1-5 but not wave 6, now Pokémon with only part 1.
Why would they even do this instead of including a download code for the full DLC instead?
This and the very early Animal Crossing & MK8D bundles just feel really, really odd to me.

I mean, okay Pokémon DLC must not be this year (which aligns to the 4chan leak) but then why make the bundle now instead of waiting the release of part 2?
I don't think that was really needed for Pokémon, even for holidays.
But Mario Kart is even more odd since wave 6 is supposedly releasing this year, right?
So why make an uncomplete physical release instead of waiting a bit later and do a complete one?? This one only concerns Japan but still.
 
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Vanillalite said:
Can you be a prestige franchise if you have to really book it to sell a million or so copies even if it reviews well?

I’m honestly asking.
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Yeah, that's what a prestige franchise is. A game that isn't necessarily going to sell well but the addition of it into your console library is important to attract attention and retain loyal fans.

Bayonetta is another prestige franchise.
 
It's true that Metroid never sold that well but the understimation of the franchise is becoming absurd. I don't know if you get an idea of how much money Nintendo is spending in the development of Metroid Prime 4 and how important it is for their reputation.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
The big issue again with Retro and Metroid as a studio is Retro being in Austin and doing no support work.

Jason Schreier gave a cost estimate of $10k per month per employee around 5 years ago for a AAA game. Assuming 20% higher than that due to general inflation and Austin (this could be higher), we're now at $12k per month per employee for Retro. Retro has 150 to 200 employees at any time so their monthly costs are at least $1.8m a month

They will have spent at least 6 years working exclusively on Prime Remastered+Prime 4. This leads to a minimum cost of those games of $129.6m. However, this is before you consider

1. Metroid Prime Remastered and Metroid Prime 4 have had massive outsourcing support that was extremely expensive (and they've promoted how expensive this outsourcing work was in their job ads)

2. AAA games usually have $100m to $150m in advertising after release.

So we're looking at Prime 4+Prime Remastered having a total cost of approaching $300m.

(This is after 5 years of no released production that likely approached $100m with revenue generated of $0)

So it's just very expensive as a franchise to continue just to "show that Nintendo systems has big games aimed at more adult gamers." Especially now as Nintendo doesn't need to make their own games like Metroid anymore to avoid that image. The Switch 2 will likely get Mortal Kombat and Cyberpunk 2077 ports near launch. So we will see.

(I think Prime 4 is doing some form of live service stuff like Doom Eternal but that was weird and I don't think it worked that much for Doom Eternal, lol)
Click to expand...
I seriously doubt they’ll assign Prime a 100-150 million marketing budget
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
The DS had nothing at launch and was one of the three best selling game systems of all time.
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The DS was also a huge paradigm shift for the handheld market. It's a different situation entirely.

(and it launched with a 3D Mario)

The Switch 2 needs to convince people who don't lurk in the hardware thread why their Switch that already plays Mario Kart 8, Smash Ultimate, and Animal Crossing is obsolete technology. Improved performance/graphics for those ain't going to do it.

3D Mario is the way. Metroid is a way. I think the former is smarter than the latter by metric tons.
 
korok said:
It's true that Metroid never sold that well but the understimation of the franchise is becoming absurd. I don't know if you get an idea of how much money Nintendo is spending in the development of Metroid Prime 4 and how important it is for their reputation.
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I’m sure they’re hoping that the game is a critical hit, but I don’t think they’re expecting 10+ million units to be sold. That’s an outlandish expectation for an IP whose current peak is just over 3 million. Remember, Nintendo is pretty conservative with sales expectations.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
The big issue again with Retro and Metroid as a studio is Retro being in Austin and doing no support work.

Jason Schreier gave a cost estimate of $10k per month per employee around 5 years ago for a AAA game. Assuming 20% higher than that due to general inflation and Austin (this could be higher), we're now at $12k per month per employee for Retro. Retro has 150 to 200 employees at any time so their monthly costs are at least $1.8m a month

They will have spent at least 6 years working exclusively on Prime Remastered+Prime 4. This leads to a minimum cost of those games of $129.6m. However, this is before you consider

1. Metroid Prime Remastered and Metroid Prime 4 have had massive outsourcing support that was extremely expensive (and they've promoted how expensive this outsourcing work was in their job ads)

2. AAA games usually have $100m to $150m in advertising after release.

So we're looking at Prime 4+Prime Remastered having a total cost of approaching $300m.

(This is after 5 years of no released production that likely approached $100m with revenue generated of $0)

So it's just very expensive as a franchise to continue just to "show that Nintendo systems has big games aimed at more adult gamers." Especially now as Nintendo doesn't need to make their own games like Metroid anymore to avoid that image. The Switch 2 will likely get Mortal Kombat and Cyberpunk 2077 ports near launch. So we will see.

(I think Prime 4 is doing some form of live service stuff like Doom Eternal but that was weird and I don't think it worked that much for Doom Eternal, lol)
Click to expand...
anyone making assumptions about budgets like this are diving deep into Folly Town
 
Neoxon said:
I’m sure they’re hoping that the game is a critical hit, but I don’t think they’re expecting 10+ million units to be sold. That’s an outlandish expectation for an IP whose current peak is just over 3 million. Remember, Nintendo is pretty conservative with sales expectations.
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They're not expecting that for sure. But not everything is about sales. When you launch a console you also want a good word of mouth, some excellent critics and show the capabilities of your system. I don't think a 10+ million seller is a Day 1 requirement.
 
ILikeFeet said:
anyone making assumptions about budgets like this are diving deep into Folly Town
Click to expand...

You can make much better assumptions about Retro because they have been credited in zero games outside of their own (which is just Tropical Freeze and Prime Remastered) in 12 years (and their ex-employees on social media would have said if they had gone uncredited in EPD games).

Doing no support work and being in Austin makes Retro really expensive pretty obviously.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
The big issue again with Retro and Metroid as a studio is Retro being in Austin and doing no support work.

Jason Schreier gave a cost estimate of $10k per month per employee around 5 years ago for a AAA game. Assuming 20% higher than that due to general inflation and Austin (this could be higher), we're now at $12k per month per employee for Retro. Retro has 150 to 200 employees at any time so their monthly costs are at least $1.8m a month

They will have spent at least 6 years working exclusively on Prime Remastered+Prime 4. This leads to a minimum cost of those games of $129.6m. However, this is before you consider

1. Metroid Prime Remastered and Metroid Prime 4 have had massive outsourcing support that was extremely expensive (and they've promoted how expensive this outsourcing work was in their job ads)

2. AAA games usually have $100m to $150m in advertising after release.

So we're looking at Prime 4+Prime Remastered having a total cost of approaching $300m.

(This is after 5 years of no released production that likely approached $100m with revenue generated of $0)

So it's just very expensive as a franchise to continue just to "show that Nintendo systems has big games aimed at more adult gamers." Especially now as Nintendo doesn't need to make their own games like Metroid anymore to avoid that image. The Switch 2 will likely get Mortal Kombat and Cyberpunk 2077 ports near launch. So we will see.

(I think Prime 4 is doing some form of live service stuff like Doom Eternal but that was weird and I don't think it worked that much for Doom Eternal, lol)
Click to expand...

Retro did the port of DKC TF and it went on to sell 4.62 million units as of December 2022. Assuming they average about $40 profit per copy sold, that comes out to 185 million dollars in profit. Prime Remastered sold just over a million, assuming an average profit of $30 per copy sold comes out to an additional 30 million dollars. So Retro has brought in roughly 215 million dollars during Prime 4's development. Neither Prime Remastered or DKC TF had marketing budgets that would be beyond a few million dollars at the most.
 
korok said:
They're not expecting that for sure. But not everything is about sales. When you launch a console you also want a good word of mouth, some excellent critics and show the capabilities of your system. I don't think a 10+ million seller is a Day 1 requirement.
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And a 3D mario can do all of those things, whilst appealing to a larger audience.
 
korok said:
They're not expecting that for sure. But not everything is about sales. When you launch a console you also want a good word of mouth, some excellent critics and show the capabilities of your system. I don't think a 10+ million seller is a Day 1 requirement.
Click to expand...
It is when you’re gauging what will drive the mainstream audience to pick up a Switch 2. And at least Zelda came close to 10 million prior to BotW.
 
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