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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (New Staff Post, Please read)

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korok said:
They're not expecting that for sure. But not everything is about sales. When you launch a console you also want a good word of mouth, some excellent critics and show the capabilities of your system. I don't think a 10+ million seller is a Day 1 requirement.
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More important to have a wide variety of quality software than a single gazillion-seller. I feel like Breath of the Wild broke people's brains a little bit.
 
qwerp said:
And a 3D mario can do all of those things, whilst appealing to a larger audience.
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Neoxon said:
It is when you’re gauging what will drive the mainstream audience to pick up a Switch 2. And at least Zelda came close to 10 million prior to BotW.
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kvetcha said:
More important to have a wide variety of quality software than a single gazillion-seller. I feel like Breath of the Wild broke people's brains a little bit.
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What if, and I'm just putting this out there, we moved this discussion to this beautiful new thread I made that is in want of impassioned arguments and smart people like yourselves
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
The big issue again with Retro and Metroid as a studio is Retro being in Austin and doing no support work.

Jason Schreier gave a cost estimate of $10k per month per employee around 5 years ago for a AAA game. Assuming 20% higher than that due to general inflation and Austin (this could be higher), we're now at $12k per month per employee for Retro. Retro has 150 to 200 employees at any time so their monthly costs are at least $1.8m a month

They will have spent at least 6 years working exclusively on Prime Remastered+Prime 4. This leads to a minimum cost of those games of $129.6m. However, this is before you consider

1. Metroid Prime Remastered and Metroid Prime 4 have had massive outsourcing support that was extremely expensive (and they've promoted how expensive this outsourcing work was in their job ads)

2. AAA games usually have $100m to $150m in advertising after release.

So we're looking at Prime 4+Prime Remastered having a total cost of approaching $300m.

(This is after 5 years of no released production that likely approached $100m with revenue generated of $0)

So it's just very expensive as a franchise to continue just to "show that Nintendo systems has big games aimed at more adult gamers." Especially now as Nintendo doesn't need to make their own games like Metroid anymore to avoid that image. The Switch 2 will likely get Mortal Kombat and Cyberpunk 2077 ports near launch. So we will see.

(I think Prime 4 is doing some form of live service stuff like Doom Eternal but that was weird and I don't think it worked that much for Doom Eternal, lol)
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I guess it could be an issue if that's the only reason you think they continue to make them.
 
Xbox series X was sold out for months and launched with nothing. Switch 2 will be good even with “only” Metroid at launch. However, Mario and other big seller have to come in the first 6-9 months imho.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
You can make much better assumptions about Retro because they have been credited in zero games outside of their own (which is just Tropical Freeze and Prime Remastered) in 12 years (and their ex-employees on social media would have said if they had gone uncredited in EPD games).

Doing no support work and being in Austin makes Retro really expensive pretty obviously.
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sure, but you can't make any assumptions about how much it costs to run, especially when you pull numbers that you can't even guarantee to apply to that particular company in that particular region of the world
 
qwerp said:
And a 3D mario can do all of those things, whilst appealing to a larger audience.
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It can. The thing is I'm not trying to predict which games will be launch titles for the system, just giving my opinion about Metroid Prime 4 specifically.
 
Have to say that the argument that Nintendo will fund Prime 4 for nearly a decade (including at least 6 years at their most expensive studio location) and then will send it out to die with no advertising is really weird, lol.

Just to keep the total dev cost estimates down instead of adding on $50m (close to the bare minimum for a AAA game) to $150m to the cost.
 
Skittzo said:
Yeah, that's what a prestige franchise is. A game that isn't necessarily going to sell well but the addition of it into your console library is important to attract attention and retain loyal fans.

Bayonetta is another prestige franchise.
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I guess I’d disagree. Are you really attracting attention if you’re only selling a half a million copies, and are those people who aren’t already on the bandwagon?

I get it from a critical standpoint, but I don’t from the attention standpoint.

Like I bought Dread like most of us here. I also don’t think if Dread didn’t exist that it would have any meaningful impact on the Switch or its sales one way or the other.
 
SHENRON!!!! I WISH FOR NINTENDO TO ANNOUNCE THIS THING ALREADY!!!! WE'VE LOOPED AROUND TOPICS SO MUCH THAT THEY'RE GETTING THEIR OWN THREADS AND WE DON'T HAVE ENOUGH LEAKS!!!! SHENRON PLEASE!!!!!!!!

Fb1tkV_WAAAVe6U.jpg
 
Vanillalite said:
I guess I’d disagree. Are you really attracting attention if you’re only selling a half a million copies, and are those people who aren’t already on the bandwagon?

I get it from a critical standpoint, but I don’t from the attention standpoint.

Like I bought Dread like most of us here. I also don’t think if Dread didn’t exist that it would have any meaningful impact on the Switch or its sales one way or the other.
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I do think the attention it brought to Switch in 2021 helped Switch sales, yeah. It also gives fans of that series an idea of what kind of future they can look forward to on the platform and the next platform. It does this for fans of other series too, like "hey if they gave us a new Metroid maybe we may actually see a new F-Zero one day!"

It's about building a diverse library with a lot of interesting titles that appeal to all sorts of demos. Prestige games may not be immediately important in terms of ROI but for more of a long term building-loyalty thing.
 
Personally, I don’t see why Metroid Prime 4 couldn’t be a launch title given at this point, it’s a freaking Cross-Gen title more likely than not.

Pokémon sells regardless, Mario sells regardless, and of course, Zelda sells regardless.

Why not use the POWER of the Switch 2 to help showcase what Prime 4 could be, while still offering it for OG Switch owners?

Now, don’t let it be the only launch title, but save a game like 3D Mario for later because again, that fucking Plumber is going to sell regardless of where and when it releases.

Also, I foresee many cross-gen titles happening for Nintendo’s own IPs, possibly for a good 2 years after Switch 2 has launched.
 
Shoulder said:
Personally, I don’t see why Metroid Prime 4 couldn’t be a launch title given at this point, it’s a freaking Cross-Gen title more likely than not.

Pokémon sells regardless, Mario sells regardless, and of course, Zelda sells regardless.

Why not use the POWER of the Switch 2 to help showcase what Prime 4 could be, while still offering it for OG Switch owners?

Now, don’t let it be the only launch title, but save a game like 3D Mario for later because again, that fucking Plumber is going to sell regardless of where and when it releases.

Also, I foresee many cross-gen titles happening for Nintendo’s own IPs, possibly for a good 2 years after Switch 2 has launched.
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Should Nintendo do what's best for Prime 4 or for the next Switch? Or is it your argument that they can do both(which they probably can lol?

Just asking cause this post sounds like you are assuming that the Switch 2 will just be a success off the bat and I'm not exactly convinced to make that assumption.
 
Shoulder said:
Personally, I don’t see why Metroid Prime 4 couldn’t be a launch title given at this point, it’s a freaking Cross-Gen title more likely than not.

Pokémon sells regardless, Mario sells regardless, and of course, Zelda sells regardless.

Why not use the POWER of the Switch 2 to help showcase what Prime 4 could be, while still offering it for OG Switch owners?

Now, don’t let it be the only launch title, but save a game like 3D Mario for later because again, that fucking Plumber is going to sell regardless of where and when it releases.

Also, I foresee many cross-gen titles happening for Nintendo’s own IPs, possibly for a good 2 years after Switch 2 has launched.
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Metroid Prime series isn’t a system seller, that’s why. The numbers have shown that over the years. Releasing Prime 4 as a launch title would be like if Nintendo launched the Switch with Kirby Epic Yarn 2 and held BOTW back for Holiday 2017.
 
Leviraps said:
Metroid Prime series isn’t a system seller, that’s why. The numbers have shown that over the years. Releasing Prime 4 as a launch title would be like if Nintendo launched the Switch with Kirby Epic Yarn 2 and held BOTW back for Holiday 2017.
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We have a thread now lads
beep boop
 
Hocot8 said:
Should Nintendo do what's best for Prime 4 or for the next Switch? Or is it your argument that they can do both(which they probably can lol?

Just asking cause this post sounds like you are assuming that the Switch 2 will just be a success off the bat and I'm not exactly convinced to make that assumption.
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I mean isn't being a cross gen title the best for Prime 4? They sell the game on the Switch and Switch 2 at the same time?
 
Leviraps said:
Metroid Prime series isn’t a system seller, that’s why. The numbers have shown that over the years. Releasing Prime 4 as a launch title would be like if Nintendo launched the Switch with Kirby Epic Yarn 2 and held BOTW back for Holiday 2017.
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You have more than 1 launch title, sure it would be pretty stupid to only have Prime 4 as a launch title, but one of several games available at launch for the Switch 2? Why not?
 
Leviraps said:
Metroid Prime series isn’t a system seller, that’s why. The numbers have shown that over the years. Releasing Prime 4 as a launch title would be like if Nintendo launched the Switch with Kirby Epic Yarn 2 and held BOTW back for Holiday 2017.
Click to expand...

Metroid isn’t a system seller but Switch 2 could be a metroid seller 😁

Switch was the successor of worst Nintendo failure, switch 2 will be in a much stronger position, at launch will be sold out regardless.
 
Uncle Squingis said:
At this point I'd like to see a poll on whether 3d Mario will be the launch title or not.
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Boy do we have the thread for you!

famiboards.com

What do you think the first year of Switch 2 will look like

A perpetual discussion in the hardware thread is what the launch title will be, what the cross-gen period will look like, etcetera. But with rumors having gone from "does this thing exist" to "it clearly exists, what can it do" it seems like the hardware thread Can't Repel Speculation Of That...
famiboards.com famiboards.com
 
Concernt said:
Too soon... too soon... please... let Pokémon rest.
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i would love to have at least 2 sabactic years for Pokemon, so Game Freak could release gen 10 on Switch or it sucessor at it best form,but knowing the Pokemon empire, sadly Pokemon Company will not allow that to happen
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
The big issue again with Retro and Metroid as a studio is Retro being in Austin and doing no support work.

Jason Schreier gave a cost estimate of $10k per month per employee around 5 years ago for a AAA game. Assuming 20% higher than that due to general inflation and Austin (this could be higher), we're now at $12k per month per employee for Retro. Retro has 150 to 200 employees at any time so their monthly costs are at least $1.8m a month

They will have spent at least 6 years working exclusively on Prime Remastered+Prime 4. This leads to a minimum cost of those games of $129.6m. However, this is before you consider

1. Metroid Prime Remastered and Metroid Prime 4 have had massive outsourcing support that was extremely expensive (and they've promoted how expensive this outsourcing work was in their job ads)

2. AAA games usually have $100m to $150m in advertising after release.

So we're looking at Prime 4+Prime Remastered having a total cost of approaching $300m.

(This is after 5 years of no released production that likely approached $100m with revenue generated of $0)

So it's just very expensive as a franchise to continue just to "show that Nintendo systems has big games aimed at more adult gamers." Especially now as Nintendo doesn't need to make their own games like Metroid anymore to avoid that image. The Switch 2 will likely get Mortal Kombat and Cyberpunk 2077 ports near launch. So we will see.

(I think Prime 4 is doing some form of live service stuff like Doom Eternal but that was weird and I don't think it worked that much for Doom Eternal, lol)
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really $300 milions dolars for Metroid Prime Remastered? how could Metroid Prime Remastered/4 cost more to make, when we have Tears of the Kingdom that have a development staff of 1.415 developers, no way Metroid Prime Remastered/4 cost more to make then Tears of the Kingdom



www.mobygames.com

The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom credits (Nintendo Switch, 2023) - MobyGames

The official game credits for The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom released on Nintendo Switch in 2023. The credits include 1,408 people.
www.mobygames.com www.mobygames.com
 
Giancarlo said:
really $300 milions dolars for Metroid Prime Remastered? how could Metroid Prime Remastered/4 cost more to make, when we have Tears of the Kingdom that have a development staff of 1.415 developers, no way Metroid Prime Remastered/4 cost more to make then Tears of the Kingdom



www.mobygames.com

The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom credits (Nintendo Switch, 2023) - MobyGames

The official game credits for The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom released on Nintendo Switch in 2023. The credits include 1,408 people.
www.mobygames.com www.mobygames.com
Click to expand...

We moved the launch games talk to another thread

famiboards.com

What do you think the first year of Switch 2 will look like

A perpetual discussion in the hardware thread is what the launch title will be, what the cross-gen period will look like, etcetera. But with rumors having gone from "does this thing exist" to "it clearly exists, what can it do" it seems like the hardware thread Can't Repel Speculation Of That...
famiboards.com famiboards.com
 
Giancarlo said:
really $300 milions dolars for Metroid Prime Remastered? how could Metroid Prime Remastered/4 cost more to make, when we have Tears of the Kingdom that have a development staff of 1.415 developers, no way Metroid Prime Remastered/4 cost more to make then Tears of the Kingdom



www.mobygames.com

The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom credits (Nintendo Switch, 2023) - MobyGames

The official game credits for The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom released on Nintendo Switch in 2023. The credits include 1,408 people.
www.mobygames.com www.mobygames.com
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We have no budget estimates for TotK?
 
darthdiablo said:
In an attempt to drive the conversation away from launch titles which we already have a thread for..

European 12-month renewal offer expiring October 8.

Business as usual, or do we think the timing is interesting?

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I'm not sure what this would even mean if it does, lol. Seems more like a random thing they're doing for the sake of it.
 
oldpuck said:
Considering we got both TTYD and Super Mario RPG right on top of each other, I think it's entirely plausible it exists beside F-Zero 99
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How difficult they could implement the 30 players online in a game like this?
The original Gamecube game had 30 supposed cpu cars right?
 
0
darthdiablo said:
In an attempt to drive the conversation away from launch titles which we already have a thread for..

European 12-month renewal offer expiring October 8.

Business as usual, or do we think the timing is interesting?

Click to expand...

The discounts Nintendo and retailers has been offering are speculated to be there for clearing inventory ahead of the release of new hardware and NG games on store shelves. Since this deal applies only to eShop purchases I think this may just be coincidence.
 
Paraspikey said:
I'm not sure what this would even mean if it does, lol. Seems more like a random thing they're doing for the sake of it.
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Yeah, probably means nothing. The 12 month renewal would run well into launch window of Switch 2, if one is #TeamH1.

Also seems to be +1 for the BC theory I guess.
 
darthdiablo said:
In an attempt to drive the conversation away from launch titles which we already have a thread for..

European 12-month renewal offer expiring October 8.

Business as usual, or do we think the timing is interesting?

Click to expand...

Probably just to capitalize on the incoming holiday season.
 
0
Neoxon said:
Maybe a Legends game, but we usually get one set of traditional remakes per generation.
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Console gen, not Pokémon gen. FR/LG on GBA, HG/SS on DS, OR/AS on 3DS, BD/SP on Switch. Gens 5, 7, and 9 skipped out on remakes because they weren't on a new console.
 
yusufied said:
The discounts Nintendo and retailers has been offering are speculated to be there for clearing inventory ahead of the release of new hardware and NG games on store shelves. Since this deal applies only to eShop purchases I think this may just be coincidence.
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Why is everyone calling it NG? Isn’t that just the abbreviation Activision used? Is there reason for us to believe that’s the codename?

redmutineer75 said:
Console gen, not Pokémon gen. FR/LG on GBA, HG/SS on DS, OR/AS on 3DS, BD/SP on Switch.
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Right, that’s what I meant.
 
Neoxon said:
Why is everyone calling it NG? Isn’t that just the abbreviation Activision used? Is there reason for us to believe that’s the codename?


Right, that’s what I meant.
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Switch 2, NG (next-gen), and Super Nintendo Switch are all fair game in my eyes
 
GigaUltraMoon said:
"Where are Nate's birds? Are they safe? Are they all right?"

"It seems, in your excitement... you scared them off."

Click to expand...


Nate tends to let other leakers break the silence before he gets involved. I suspect in the coming month or two we will get more leaks out of VGC and DF and then it will be followed up with Nate corroborating those reports and adding in some missing details. If your waiting on Nate to spill all the juicy details prepare for disappointment, he just doesn't like to be first for whatever reason.
 
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