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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

SEQUEL TO THE NINTENDO 3DS GOAT IMMINENT
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2024 IT'S HAPPENING
And I do hope they will bring back AR Games too.

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Isn't this just compression.

Oh, it is.


This is good, but it's way too hardware intensive currently to be useful.

These new near loss-less compression techniques are interesting, but just not close to console viable now or maybe even for a while. This seems more like PS7 stuff when decompression is so cheap (due to processors being more powerful) that they can use it.
What ILikeFeet linked to is indeed super resolution, not compression. The catch is that super resolution isn’t nearly as useful for audio as it is for computer graphics or image processing, because audio recordings are band-limited. Lower sampling rates were certainly used for audio transmission; for example, digital telephones or older lossy digital audio files. But for a modern audio recording, there’s no reason to ever use any sampling rate less than 44 kHz.

In contrast, having low resolution imaging sensors or rendering computer graphics at a low resolution is an extremely common problem. Plus, any scene that contains a sharp edge can never be band limited, no matter how high the resolution is. So super resolution is an extremely important problem in graphics/imaging.

But yes, neural compression of audio could be potentially be useful for file sizes in the future.
 
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I was team 720 for screen because I think 1080 with ps4 ish power will mean a lot of games will be 1080/30 while with 720 the extra power could be used to run games at 60fps. (Dlss both cases)
me too, but is reports say it is 1080, they i will hew to that.

At the end of the day 720-1080 is likely the sweet spot for portables for some time to come.

It's interesting to note after pointlessly racing screen resolutions for the good part of the 20 teens, flagship and midrange phone are going for better refresh rate and 1080 displays because of battery /performance benefits and few people actually really need all those extra pixels, nor motice it, on a 6 inch screen.

Assuming 8 inch is true, 1080 8inch will be perfect.
 
me too, but is reports say it is 1080, they i will hew to that.

At the end of the day 720-1080 is likely the sweet spot for portables for some time to come.

It's interesting to note after pointlessly racing screen resolutions for the good part of the 20 teens, flagship and midrange phone are going for better refresh rate and 1080 displays because of battery /performance benefits and few people actually really need all those extra pixels, nor motice it, on a 6 inch screen.

Assuming 8 inch is true, 1080 8inch will be perfect.
As far as I know the more precise measurement is 7.81" (or maybe 7.91"? If someone could source the more precise thing, I think it was from a data mine.)

But you'd be right about pixel density as a whole. I try to be precise about the size because the difference in volume between a 7.81" device and an 8" device is non-trivial.
 
As far as I know the more precise measurement is 7.81" (or maybe 7.91"? If someone could source the more precise thing, I think it was from a data mine.)

But you'd be right about pixel density as a whole. I try to be precise about the size because the difference in volume between a 7.81" device and an 8" device is non-trivial.
I just checked, it was .91.
 
more interesting is audio enhancement. maybe nintendo is experimenting with with low resolution audio for smaller file sizes
I hope so. Keeping file sizes in check would go a long way in the gen. Cause man, devs are eating up storage like candy.
 
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it's because we remember this that a lot of us think that Nintendo wouldn't be willing to make such a gamble again, because doing it with the Wii U completely blew up in their face.
The Wii U failed for a lot of reasons but selling at a loss was not one of them. Not one of any significance, really.
 
me too, but is reports say it is 1080, they i will hew to that.

At the end of the day 720-1080 is likely the sweet spot for portables for some time to come.

It's interesting to note after pointlessly racing screen resolutions for the good part of the 20 teens, flagship and midrange phone are going for better refresh rate and 1080 displays because of battery /performance benefits and few people actually really need all those extra pixels, nor motice it, on a 6 inch screen.

Assuming 8 inch is true, 1080 8inch will be perfect.

I could see the Switch 3 being 10 inches, and the Switch 3 jumping to 1440p in handheld mode (to maintain PPI around 300)

720p DLSS'd to 1440p handheld and 1440p DLSS'd to 8K docked would probably work well.

But this is 2030 to 2034.
 
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This Death Stranding video is a good example of DLSS at low resolution. It's cool, but it can't go as far as you want on low resolution.

I forget where I've read it but I'm pretty sure DLSS has improved quite a bit since that Death Stranding footage was taken a couple years ago. The issues especially like the streaming ghostie afterimages on small particles have been corrected by now, I think.
 
I could see the Switch 3 being 10 inches, and the Switch 3 jumping to 1440p in handheld mode (to maintain PPI around 300)

720p DLSS'd to 1440p handheld and 1440p DLSS'd to 8K docked would probably work well.

But this is 2030 to 2034.
The Legion Go's screen is 8.8 inches, so I'd be really surprised if Nintendo would go bigger. If you'll forgive the crude innuendo, 10 inches would probably be way too big for most people, especially getting your hands around it.
 
This is entirely my opinion and not based on any tangible facts, but I don't think Nintendo would actually give future Switch models a bigger screen unless they absolutely had to. People have complained about screen size on the Lite, but not really on the standard model— I even recall people praising the launch model's screen size and quality as 'pretty good for an LCD', and of course, everyone and their granny gushed over the OLED's awesome display.

If the screen on the NG actually ends up being larger, I feel like it will be because the overall system is bigger and a more sizable display was required. They're already pushing the general definition of 'portable' with the console's current size; anything significantly bigger and it becomes unwieldy, especially as a system geared that is supposed to be accessible to younger kids.

My apologies if this is just incredibly obvious or has already been mentioned, just figured I'd pitch in with my own two cents.
 
For me, what speaks most against SEC8N is the simple fact that the current generation is based on TSMC 7N which is much more efficient.
How does a company plan to launch a minimally portable console, based on a less efficient lithography than that of consoles launched 4 years earlier?
 
This is entirely my opinion and not based on any tangible facts, but I don't think Nintendo would actually give future Switch models a bigger screen unless they absolutely had to. People have complained about screen size on the Lite, but not really on the standard model— I even recall people praising the launch model's screen size and quality as 'pretty good for an LCD', and of course, everyone and their granny gushed over the OLED's awesome display.

If the screen on the NG actually ends up being larger, I feel like it will be because the overall system is bigger and a more sizable display was required. They're already pushing the general definition of 'portable' with the console's current size; anything significantly bigger and it becomes unwieldy, especially as a system geared that is supposed to be accessible to younger kids.

My apologies if this is just incredibly obvious or has already been mentioned, just figured I'd pitch in with my own two cents.
Yeah, 7.91" stretches out beyond even the entire frame of OLED Model (7.88" diagonal).

It's definitely bigger - but based on what we know, it's likely not due to the SOC "needing" it, but because bigger screens are more desirable.
 
I struggle to see the need for a bigger screen than 8’ (and even 8’ is pushing it) in a handheld outside of having to make the console bigger and because is going to be big anyway you put a big screen on it. In terms of resolution at that size 1440p can still be worth it but more for reading than gaming which you will see close to no differences between 1080p vs 1440p
 
Isn't Lovelace basically just a die shrunken Ampere to begin with? The actual changes, AFAIK, are extremely minor beyond that.

I'm sure oldpuck probably knows everything.
Yes it’s a die shrink in a sense, but it’s not a 1:1 with Ampere. They have new tensor cores support newer instruction, support newer FP formats for ML/AI work, have new RT cores that have a couple of new features and are better in Intersection testing (per the white paper), and can support a new scheduler for the shaders during RT moments. Has a newer more robust OFA engine than the one in ampere that enables it to do Frame Generation.
 
I struggle to see the need for a bigger screen than 8’ (and even 8’ is pushing it) in a handheld outside of having to make the console bigger and because is going to be big anyway you put a big screen on it. In terms of resolution at that size 1440p can still be worth it but more for reading than gaming which you will see close to no differences between 1080p vs 1440p
Tabletop mode exists, y'know.

(7.91" could also allow for better ergonomics, much like how the Wii U GamePad was comfortable in part because it was HUGE.)
 
This is entirely my opinion and not based on any tangible facts, but I don't think Nintendo would actually give future Switch models a bigger screen unless they absolutely had to. People have complained about screen size on the Lite, but not really on the standard model— I even recall people praising the launch model's screen size and quality as 'pretty good for an LCD', and of course, everyone and their granny gushed over the OLED's awesome display.

If the screen on the NG actually ends up being larger, I feel like it will be because the overall system is bigger and a more sizable display was required. They're already pushing the general definition of 'portable' with the console's current size; anything significantly bigger and it becomes unwieldy, especially as a system geared that is supposed to be accessible to younger kids.

My apologies if this is just incredibly obvious or has already been mentioned, just figured I'd pitch in with my own two cents.
I think the implication made when the LCD news came out was that Nintendo picked these ~8 inch LCDs because some breakthrough happened on the manufacturing side that allowed these screens to be much less expensive to mass produce so the manufacturer is offering a very good deal on them, which is why the Playstation Portal is also using the same size and resolution LCD screens.

Yeah, 7.91" stretches out beyond even the entire frame of OLED Model (7.88" diagonal).

It's definitely bigger - but based on what we know, it's likely not due to the SOC "needing" it, but because bigger screens are more desirable.
And/or because 8 inch 1080p LCD screens suddenly became much less expensive to mass produce.
 
Like touchscreen?
Or motion controls?

Got me there.

Anyway I don't think a touchscreen really needs a reason to exist, because basically every screen at that size is touch. I don't think it adds anything to the price, possibly it's cheaper.
Or the OLED display? :p

It’s a feature you can only use if you play handheld mode at all, and not everyone does that.

Hence why some people find the OLED model to be a useless revision
 
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Yeah, 7.91" stretches out beyond even the entire frame of OLED Model (7.88" diagonal).

It's definitely bigger - but based on what we know, it's likely not due to the SOC "needing" it, but because bigger screens are more desirable.

I definitely hope that's the case; it'd point towards a system that's bigger but not necessarily heavier or clunkier. Personally, I value screen quality more than I do screen size; so a display that's the exact same size as say, the OLED, with better resolution and pixel density would be infinitely preferable in my book— but it's good to keep in mind that Nintendo has more data on how people actually use their Switch than any of us, so they'll definitely prioritize what they feel will please most users, a lot of which don't necessarily care about the minutiae as long as the screen is big and vibrant.

I think the implication made when the LCD news came out was that Nintendo picked these ~8 inch LCDs because some breakthrough happened on the manufacturing side that allowed these screens to be much less expensive to mass produce so the manufacturer is offering a very good deal on them, which is why the Playstation Portal is also using the same size and resolution LCD screens.

That'd be exciting if true! I figured the general consensus was that insiders got mixed up and thought the PS Portal display was supposed to be for the Switch NG, but it'll be interesting if they do end up using the exact same screen. I wonder if that would open up the possibility of VRR being supported— since AFAIK it's a system level feature on the PS5.
 
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Yields still not being good (if that part isn't being exaggerated) shouldn't be a performance problem for the end user, and there will probably be a revision around 2 years later anyway, so I don't really see a problem. The only thing I can see happening if it ends up being 8 nm is people saying "the sky is falling, I'm not buying this piece of crap" and so yet again (in a repeat of the aftermath of the Jan 2017 conference) Switch 2 will be more readily available at launch, only for people to realize later things are not as bad as they thought, but by then I'll already have my Switch 2 effortlessly so all's good :cool:
It shouldn’t be for the end user but it could be a cost problem for the end user or for Nintendo.

Besides having to design a more elaborate cooling system for the chip, they would need to fit said chip within the device and the substrate that it would be sitting atop of, which is larger than the chip itself. So, you end up with two things:

1) a heavier device, having a denser battery to accommodate the power consumption and the heat of the system. OLED removed to try and bring the cost down, but it would be expensive to assemble and more expensive to sell to you

2) they intentionally remove hardware features of the system to try to bring it to as low of a cost as possible at the expense of system features in order to sell you something they are comfortable with that is within an agreeable price range and an agreeable BoM range. In this case they will BOM optimize but who knows what they remove? Bye IR Camera? Bye HD rumble? Bye Motion Controls? Bye more than 8GB of RAM? Bye more than 64GB of Storage?


These are all things that would need to be accounted for when considering the matter. Of course, I haven’t ruled out 100% the possibility of it being on a custom SEC 4nm node to be as efficient as possible, but this will need to operate within the power envelop of this device while still offering a decent battery life for them to sell later at better margins. That or Nintendo decides to sell at a loss, but that’s very unlikely to occur.


I’m aware oF ORIN and it’s possible consumption having the Jetson power tool, and it has its own v/f curve, but T239 may not be that different.
 
i came up with a timeline re the whole T239 node thing and speculated that the original Switch Pro (T239 on 8nm) was scrapped during 2021 sometime. this does not line up with recalled dev kits toward the end of 2022 however. the Nvidia leaks from March 2022 already show a 1536 core Drake which is the product we're almost definitely getting. best guess is the reshuffle from Switch Pro to Switch 2 was more on product positioning (reworking controllers, adding gimmick?) and/or manufacturing logistics/pricing and it was deemed preferable to wait. if there was a node change (lets speculate there was, hence the early info about 8nm) it happened earlier in the process than last year.
 
2) they intentionally remove hardware features of the system to try to bring it to as low of a cost as possible at the expense of system features in order to sell you something they are comfortable with that is within an agreeable price range and an agreeable BoM range. In this case they will BOM optimize but who knows what they remove? Bye IR Camera? Bye HD rumble? Bye Motion Controls? Bye more than 8GB of RAM? Bye more than 64GB of Storage?
I was going to say that the first three concessions would get in the way of backwards compatibility— but then I remembered the Switch Lite exists. There's already a precedent for Nintendo seeing those features as 'optional' when the time comes to trim the fat and make a more affordable system.

Memory seems like one of those areas where they wouldn't want to cheap out though, considering they can make Joycons that re-introduce the IR camera and the HD rumble (or just let you use your old Joycons to enable the functionality in games that support it), but once the RAM is set in stone, they're gonna be stuck with that amount for years.
 
Nintendo will choose the process node at give



them the best battery life and afordable price, if 8nm can give Nintendo that option, is obvious they would choose that
The question is, what is more affordable: 8 nm with a bigger battery or 4nm with a smaller?

Nintendo need to put that thing to work, at least for 2 hours, maybe 3. I can't see they choose a bigger node and a small battery to make a console that run only 1 hour or less or portable mode.
 
i came up with a timeline re the whole T239 node thing and speculated that the original Switch Pro (T239 on 8nm) was scrapped during 2021 sometime. this does not line up with recalled dev kits toward the end of 2022 however. the Nvidia leaks from March 2022 already show a 1536 core Drake which is the product we're almost definitely getting. best guess is the reshuffle from Switch Pro to Switch 2 was more on product positioning (reworking controllers, adding gimmick?) and/or manufacturing logistics/pricing and it was deemed preferable to wait. if there was a node change (lets speculate there was, hence the early info about 8nm) it happened earlier in the process than last year.
Could there be some lag between when chip was scrapped, and when they would have new devkits based on newer SOC ready? They might not have requested recall of devkits until the newer devkits were ready, thus a bit of lag?
 
Why the fuck is Nekopara there
I don't know what Nekopara is. I probably should note that anything on this chart doesn't necessarily mean the poster believes the game will show up on NG Switch - i think it's just the poster placing games into columns based on what poster think NG Switch performance would look like. The chart was found here.
 
Came across this in a Chinese forum. Based on translation it's purely theoretical I believe. But I find the chart interesting. Anyone want to critique on the placement of those games based on theoretical performance with NG switch? Do those look realistic?

g1TNJ0j.jpg
I have questions about the whole chart.
(Also I doubt it supports 8k in any way)
 
I'm sorry, how is this argument hard to follow at all.

Step 1: NVIDIA buys M amount of 4N wafers from TSMC.
Step 2: NVIDIA projects that they will be able to use all of those wafers to sell extremely high priced chips that all sell out.
Step 3: Therefore, NVIDIA puts a very high price on chips made on 4N that they would sell to their vendors (because otherwise they would be losing money relative to their projections)
Step 4: Nintendo does not decide to enter a contract with NVIDIA for production of a 4N chip because NVIDIA would charge them a huge amount.
Step 5: Nintendo instead enters a contract with NVIDIA to produce a chip using wafers with an extremely low opportunity cost as NVIDIA would charge them much less.

Prices are set based on economic cost, not production cost.
Console APUs/SOCs aren’t high margin sectors for anyone, they are low margins. Desktop GPUs are high margin sectors and HPC/DC are even higher margins.


The Tegra X1 was not being sold for +100 to Nintendo, which is how much you are able to buy them for, see here the Nvidia store page for the Jetson Nano that has a Tegra X1.


Looking at the BoM for the Nintendo Switch reported online years ago, the whole device costs $257 with the joycons.


It’s applicable for their dGPUs, like AMD and NVidia (of course), who have similar margins to Apple, as in they make a lot from their dGPUs. But it’s not the same for something like a console which is sold for a lot lower margins than the dGPU. Hell, AMD enjoys those very much with their CPUs…

Edit: fixed broken link
 
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Question for the tech heads here... well a few questions. This is the tech speculation thread so... Can you guys speculate as to how the following possible future Nintendo products would compare vs a PS5?

A: Switch 2 with Drake on 4nm process in a big boy SteamDeck sized (or bigger!) monster with a big ol battery and cooling system.

B: “Switch Base” home console with an arm processor that matches whatever is in drake and a discrete GPU that's something like a 4600? Whatever they can shove in there and kee the console at most 399. Basically what is your dream switch home? Would the above even be possibly compatible with the regular Switch 2?
 
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Came across this in a Chinese forum. Based on translation it's purely theoretical I believe. But I find the chart interesting. Anyone want to critique on the placement of those games based on theoretical performance with NG switch? Do those look realistic?

g1TNJ0j.jpg
When I see "2k" for 1440p

dies-of-cringe-cringe.gif


Joke aside can't wait for Spider Man on Nintendo!
 
How do AMD's RDNA 3 cores compare to Nvidia's CUDA 8.7 cores (Assuming that an Orin-based chip would use Orin's cores rather than the later Lovelace 8.9 and Hopper 9.0 cores)? Obviously clock speeds and TDP will significantly affect the final performance, but it seems like the Switch 2 may be more graphically capable than the ROG Ally, which would be insane if true.
It’s more bandwidth and power limited, but if I’m not mistaken RDNA3 WGPs are larger than the SMs in nvidia GPUs. Also, Drake is 8.8, but that doesn’t matter much here.
 
I don't know what Nekopara is. I probably should note that anything on this chart doesn't necessarily mean the poster believes the game will show up on NG Switch - i think it's just the poster placing games into columns based on what poster think NG Switch performance would look like. The chart was found here.
Don't Google it

Though the console releases are the censored version
 
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For me, what speaks most against SEC8N is the simple fact that the current generation is based on TSMC 7N which is much more efficient.
How does a company plan to launch a minimally portable console, based on a less efficient lithography than that of consoles launched 4 years earlier?
Although there’s not really a correlation in that regard, I’ve never noticed that.
 
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I was going to say that the first three concessions would get in the way of backwards compatibility— but then I remembered the Switch Lite exists. There's already a precedent for Nintendo seeing those features as 'optional' when the time comes to trim the fat and make a more affordable system.

Memory seems like one of those areas where they wouldn't want to cheap out though, considering they can make Joycons that re-introduce the IR camera and the HD rumble (or just let you use your old Joycons to enable the functionality in games that support it), but once the RAM is set in stone, they're gonna be stuck with that amount for years.
And that brings another issue, picture that they already release a console that removes features like that. How are they going to sell you a Lite refresh? The lite is supposed to be Lite on features already, and if the next gen has less features already either A) the Lite doesn’t exist or B) they are going to strip even more and make it a worse value proposition.
 
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I forget where I've read it but I'm pretty sure DLSS has improved quite a bit since that Death Stranding footage was taken a couple years ago. The issues especially like the streaming ghostie afterimages on small particles have been corrected by now, I think.

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I was reading about process nodes and, somehow, I missed this slide entirely back when TSMC showed their roadmap:
TSMC-Process-Technology-Roadmap-_1-gigapixel-low_res-scale-4_00x-Custom.png


TSMC consider that N4P/5nm family will be a mainstream node by next year. Curious enough, 12FFC/12FFC+/16FFC+/16nm, which is the node where Mariko/Tegra X1+/T214 fabbed, was considered a mainstream node around the same time we got Switch V2/Lite and OLED.

Doesn't mean anything. But perhaps Nvidia and Nintendo had insight of this when they were designing the SoC back in 2020/2021.... (Inhales Copium🫂)

 
I was reading about process nodes and, somehow, I missed this slide entirely back when TSMC showed their roadmap:
TSMC-Process-Technology-Roadmap-_1-gigapixel-low_res-scale-4_00x-Custom.png


TSMC consider that N4P/5nm family will be a mainstream node by next year. Curious enough, 12FFC/12FFC+/16FFC+/16nm, which is the node where Mariko/Tegra X1+/T214, was considered a mainstream node around the same time we got Switch V2/Lite and OLED.

Doesn't mean anything. But perhaps Nvidia and Nintendo had insight of this when they were designing the SoC back in 2020/2021.... (Inhales Copium🫂)

they would have, since these nodes are explained to buyers years before
 
And that brings another issue, picture that they already release a console that removes features like that. How are they going to sell you a Lite refresh? The lite is supposed to be Lite on features already, and if the next gen has less features already either A) the Lite doesn’t exist or B) they are going to strip even more and make it a worse value proposition.

Ideally, the old features would be gutted in order to make room for new stuff, like the rumored HD camera (assuming that's actually a thing). HD Rumble and the IR camera weren't exactly a hit with developers and gamers, and though they power some neat stuff like Ring Fit, they're not exactly impossible to get to work since, even if the Joycon rails have changed, you should still be able to pair Gen 1 Joycons through Bluetooth— much like how the Wii U had a controller of its own, while still offering extensive support for the previous generation's controllers. We can't know how viable the strategy of removing features for a hypothetical Lite would be until we know what kind of gimmicks Nintendo has in store for us. Something like scroll wheel shoulder buttons or an actual HD camera would be harder to remove than just a funny little rumble motor, I'd imagine.

I'm sure they already have plans for what'll come after the launch NG, but what those plans entail is probably impossible to predict, at least at this point in time. Prior to the Lite's announcement, the idea of an undockable Switch seemed risible for a bunch of us, since there wasn't much point to a Switch that couldn't, well. Switch. And while we may have had a point since the Lite is the worst-performing Switch model (to my knowledge, at least), Nintendo believes in it enough to release special editions for it to this day. The 'entry level' system is an important part of their repertoire, so I'm confident we'll see a "Lite" version of the NG eventually.
 
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Came across this in a Chinese forum. Based on translation it's purely theoretical I believe. But I find the chart interesting. Anyone want to critique on the placement of those games based on theoretical performance with NG switch? Do those look realistic?

g1TNJ0j.jpg
This chart seems to be made by someone under the assumption that the Switch 2 will have better performance than the Series S which everyone in this thread agrees is not happening.
 
I think people are misunderstanding something...

With 8nm, Nintendo could have a X1 in handheld mode and use DLSS to effectively be on par with PS4. And docked they could achieve better resolution in docked than a PS4. All of that with Switch form factor.

The problem isn't that we think it's beyond Nintendo to do something that. The problem is that the info we trust the most (Nvidia stolen code) already says they didn't go that route.

Before the hack, we were all thinking it was 8nm and the main discussion was whether 8 SMs could be viable. The hack comes and... it's actually it's 12 SMs. Then we got more info from Nvidia working on Linux that T239 had 8 CPU similar cores. Finally, Nvidia released a SoC on 8nm, Orin, and it reinforced that 12 SMs were not viable for 8nm.

But again, they could get a small and cheap and decently speced SoC, with 4xA78 and 6~8 SMs.

But they went isntead with 8 and 12. Not only that would make the SoC significantly more expensive on the same node, but if it's 8nm, we're talking about more expensive cooling, more expensive battery, thicker, heavier and noiser tablet. All for the sake of going from X1 to PS4 and have better CPU.

As a enthusiast, I care a lot more about specs than 90% of the Switch user base. But even I think that would be a terrible trade off. And you want me to believe Nintendo, of all companies, would take that for the sake of specs? To each their own, I guess.
 
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