Armoured_Bear
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I didn't know that, no.
So, do you agree with the original post that Sony don't make cute games?
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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
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So, do you agree with the original post that Sony don't make cute games?
Lugia667
Inkling
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I think I've had my leak fill for the day...The last ten pages have been exhausting... I need a leak regarding a game in development for Switch 2 to recover.
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The last ten pages have been exhausting... I need a leak regarding a game in development for Switch 2 to recover.
I've already tried to will it into existence earlier today, but the gods didn't listen.
qwerp
Moblin
H2 isn't noisy. The xbox and sony refreshes will not make as much of a splash you may think it they will. ESPECIALLY the xbox refresh. that shit is pathetic.
I am not being pessimistic. I don't think that kind of attitude promotes healthy discussion.
redmutineer75
Bob-omb
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A March release is impossible. Nintendo has said there will be no new hardware in FY2023. The Japanese fiscal year ends on March 31st.
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To me it's less about mindshare and more about assembly/production lines being extra crowded because of that.
kvetcha
hoopy frood
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They said no such thing, and multiple people have addressed it in the last several pages.
Teal'c
Shriekbat
We have to insist, with Microsoft probably revealing the shopping list of its employees tomorrow, it's incredible that there isn't even a small leak about a game in development for Switch 2
I love technical talk but the games are what matters in the end.
Alovon11
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Like, if Nate's "March" mention is accurate, considering the venue and context of that, it'd make little sense to mention to what is seemingly a dev-focused conference anything other than either a Release Window, Gold Master Advertising Window, or at absolute stretch, a Switch 2 Presentation Deadline.
Why would developers, ones who either don't have Devkits, or just got them in the last month at Gamescom be told about something like the reveal, a reveal which Nintendo doesn't likely want devs fighting over marketing space for it? (Especially considering the only third-party title in the Switch's reveal was Skyrim)
So assuming Nate is correct about March, then that would only really leave
- A Switch 2 Presentation as a "If you want your games to be shown off, make sure they have a major slice ready by March where we have our Switch 2 Presentation".
- A window to make sure games are golden within to make for the launch of the system
- The actual release date
ItWasMeantToBe19
Manakete
Ignore them. They don't appreciate people's opinions unless you are totally optimistic. They recently thought things were so noisy the Switch 2 was coming this holiday. Don't let them dictate what you want to discuss as long as it is in good faith of course lol.
darthdiablo
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I just looked at the financial report I saw no explicit mention of "we plan no hardware planned till end of March 2024".
Assuming they do launch before end of March 2024, are they obligated to report that (in the forecast section ending March 31, 2024) in the filing? I imagine they would have had to disclose that, but I am not knowledgeable about filing requirements in general.
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We have to insist, with Microsoft probably revealing the shopping list of its employees tomorrow, it's incredible that there isn't even a small leak about a game in development for Switch 2
I love technical talk but the games are what matters in the end.
Now now, TGS is about to start and Horii will have opportunities to talk!
LiC
Member
They don't have to disclose anything specific. They're not even required to provide forecasts of Switch unit sales, just generic monetary forecasts; all the hardware/software breakdowns and stuff like that are totally discretionary.
Something people like to say -- a lot -- is "Nintendo can't lie to investors." And people use it to imply there's a magic decoder ring we can use to uncover secret plans in all of Nintendo's financial statements. But all it really means is they can't make false or misleading statements about their actual financial situation, or say things that may cause people to invest in them under false pretenses. "We expect a net profit of 9 trillion dollars in FY24" or "we plan to introduce a new handheld console with twice the processing power of PS5 for half the price" would be lying to investors (and more relevantly, fraud). But denying or no-commenting on plans to do something, or just not saying anything at all, is not fraud. They can figuratively or literally lie to investors as long as they aren't committing fraud, although it's good practice to not do that, which is why they have PR statements like "nothing to announce at this time" or "not at a stage where we can comment."
Giancarlo
Nintendo connoiseur
Capcom: do 12/16GB RAM, if you hope to see Monster Hunter Rise 2, Resident Evil 4 remake in your console
Hosermess
Koopa
darthdiablo
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What do you mean by "they"? I have never ever mentioned this holiday season as a potential launch window so I'm not sure why you quoted the reply to my comment (which wasn't about "this holiday")
D
Deleted member 3433
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The Switch 2 wouldn't need that amount of RAM to run the Resident Evil 4 remake. The PlayStation 4 can run the game too.
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If you have to ignore a good chunk of thread regulars, then i have to question what talk you bring to this thread to begin with, if you're not willing to read people having other opinions.
it was directed to the 2nd post they quoted. I was too lazy to delete his response to you but I figured it was pretty obvious with the context who my post was directed at.
I literally only ignore 2 people. Ignoring this 1 person is hardly a good chunk. Don't assume to know what I'm willing and not willing to do lol. I'm very willing to read people's opinions but when their opinion consists of constantly shifting the goalposts and then reacting negatively to those who disagree...I can't be bothered.
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darthdiablo
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lemonfresh
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if its a march release it has to be revealed around January cause I feel like they want to make the holiday about wonder and the bundles, but that begs the question can nintendo get a good launch with just 2 months of marketing, like the ps4 was announced a year in advance for people to prepare and preorder and for the stock to be ready, can nintendo really do that in just 2 months. Imo it might make things messy.
Lancelot
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I'm halfway there, I do agree with you that they do make them internally from time to time, but an studio needs to actively push for them (nowadays insomniac and media molecule). There's no force at Sony encouraging cartoony/whimsical stuff and even then, they enjoy scarce amounts of success historically, probably because of Nintendo's image stealing the thunder of their already scarce offerings. It's been this way since the PSX ended, that's how Uncharted 1 was the turning point for SIE it ended as.
lemonfresh
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qwerp
Moblin
I believe, if the March date means anything, it is about some sort of presentation about NG switch to showcase off games. I don't see how a release date would be relevant to them if they don't have dev kits. It's not like they could make games for launch in that time.
I do think production lines is an important thing to think about. I hadn't thought of it before in regards to the recent xbox leak. I would imagine Nintendo would be okay and secure supply lines. They would need to produce more out of the big three, and I don't think the xbox refreshes would necessarily have that much demand for them.
Of course. We should be able to discuss conflicting opinions without the distasteful attitudes.
Goodtwin
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Keep in mind that the small details with Switch were shrouded in secrecy even after the October 2016 teaser trailer and weren't revealed until the January press conference. It was actually limited to a crude mock up picture similar to sketches used in patents, we didn't get much beyond what DF reported in July 2016 until we actually saw Switch in the teaser trailer. Nothing is confirmed until its actually confirmed, but right now we basically know its a new Switch, powered by the Tegra T239 with eight A78 CPU cores and 1536 Ampere GPU cores with a 128bit memory bus and will use a 8" 1080 LCD screen. To say we know as much or more about SNG than we did about Switch in September of 2016 would be a reasonable statement.
Nate has never said that March is the release date, so lets not frame his statement as if he did. He said he was hearing March was a topic of discussion surrounding the new hardware but he did not have clarity on why it was a hot topic. We all have our opinion on why developers would be talking about March after being briefed on the new hardware, but that is purely speculation right now and everyone is free to have their opinion and rationalize why they think their opinion is correct.
The reason I give March a chance is because I do not see a month being a topic of discussion for developers who were just briefed on new hardware unless they had been told its the target for launch. Could it be the reveal? Sure, but the reveal date wouldn't be as relevant to developers and what they would really want to know if when the new hardware is coming to market.
D
Deleted member 887
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I think I have effectively bowed out of this thread as a regular, simply because I cannot read 10-12 pages a day. But I'd like to hang around so I will probably do some drivebys.
As long as AAA gaming means "built to push the current generation of hardware", there will never be a time when the current generation of hardware that draws 200+ watts out of a wall can be shrunk so something that draws 10 out of a battery.
Thraktor has given an excellent answer already but to add to it - Nintendo isn't going to offer machine learning assistance to Nvidia for technology that Nvidia then puts on PC. Nintendo is licensing DLSS from Nvidia, but it's Nvidia's baby.
Early Switch NG presentations said that Nintendo's battery life target was 2-6 hours. This is just physics. "AAA gameplay", "4-5 hours of battery life" and "handheld that will not snap your wrist in hald" are not currently compatible, and likely never will be.
As long as AAA gaming means "built to push the current generation of hardware", there will never be a time when the current generation of hardware that draws 200+ watts out of a wall can be shrunk so something that draws 10 out of a battery.
qwerp
Moblin
I have never said that Nate meant a release in March. I stated that in the comment you were replying to.
DDark
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I know I’ve said it before, but September is just too late in my mind. If I had to guess, it’s gonna be launched somewhere in the March-June timeframe. Q1 of Nintendo’s current fiscal year (April-June) was massive for them, so unless they have some secret huge-hit Switch1 software hidden away, I feel they are going to need to do something to show shareholders they have a plan to achieve the infinite growth that they all seem to demand. (I’m very much looking forward to Princess Peach and the Paper Mario remaster, but I don’t think either of those titles will do all that much to move the needle.) By launching outside of the holidays, they could essentially add a second holiday-sized hardware sales period into their calendar, as well as allow for additional software to be released and sold (especially if they go the 1 big first party game per month cadence again.)
(Not to mention, that same launch template worked really well for Switch1 (and allowed for some big splash marketing like NoA’s Super Bowl commercial.))
That all said, the realities of hardware and software production schedules and timelines could have made a H1 release impractical or impossible, so it’s not like a H2 release would be shocking to me. If I were Head Uncle at Nintendo, though, I would be aiming to have it out before Summer.
(Not to mention, that same launch template worked really well for Switch1 (and allowed for some big splash marketing like NoA’s Super Bowl commercial.))
That all said, the realities of hardware and software production schedules and timelines could have made a H1 release impractical or impossible, so it’s not like a H2 release would be shocking to me. If I were Head Uncle at Nintendo, though, I would be aiming to have it out before Summer.
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D
Deleted member 5146
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Oh it's no challenge for them when you think about how they can announce a Direct the night before it's scheduled to happen, get millions of viewers during it then have everything trending online across all platforms for days or weeks afterward such is the power of their popularity
Then you have all those huge entertainment sites, channels and public figures that will do coverage, then thousands of large, medium and small YouTube channels who post reactions to Directs, State of Plays, game and move trailers etc. comfortably receiving hundreds of thousands of views in no time at all which has exploded over the last decade - there were so few recorded reactions to the Wii U stuff, there's so many from the Switch Presentation event, and there'll be even more for the NG, so through this there's a massive network of passive advertising that all Nintendo have to do is showcase the product and let the internet go wild when they see it!
ItWasMeantToBe19
Manakete
I don't think there is a correlation. If T239 is designed for 8nm, it will be 8nm. 5nm likewise.
Moving from 8nm to 5 is more than a die shrink, it's a complete redesign. Moving a chip from Samsung to Tsmc it pretty much needs to go back to the drawing board.
That being being said, from what I consider expert analysis in this thread, I think it would take a small miracle for 8nm 12sm to be running efficiently.
Alovon11
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Well that's the thing, the Switch 2 Presentation idea is probably the least likely of them because that's not a dev thing, that's a marketing/management thing.
It's up to Managers and Marketing to get trailers/pipelines in place for a reveal/trailer at a Switch 2 Presentation, not the Devs.
First point of contact for that would most cases be at Corporate rather than devs visiting to get presented tech demos/other details on the system and it's capabilities (DLSS.etc).
So thus why I lean to "Launch Window Lock" or Release.
Assuming March being mentioned is true
ItWasMeantToBe19
Manakete
Having trailers ready to show for March is absolutely dev-related?
LiC
Member
I mean, yeah it can, and it already has been on the current Switch. You don't get the same experience; it's shrunk. But it's been done and will be done again on the next hardware.
Chips are designed in multiple layers of abstractions. Only the final non-abstract layer, the physical design, is dependent on the foundry/node. Now, I have absolutely no knowledge of how much work it is to reimplement a physical design for a different foundry or node -- maybe it's enormous -- but it isn't starting from scratch.
Could be a correlation in the sense though that lets say Nintendo chose 4N (5nm) a couple of years ago, the plan was always for fall 2024, lets say because they knew that by that time the process would be more mature and you would have vendors like Apple and possibly Nvidia's own cutting edge GPUs moving off 5nm and going to 3nm. Giving Nintendo a better price on the node.
So maybe the decision for Nintendo circa 2020 was "we can go for like March 2023 on 8nm, but if we make a decision now to wait until 2nd half 2024 ... 5nm (4N) is an option for us and that's what Nvidia is using for their 30 series".
I'm pretty sure though Nintendo even when making a chip at a higher node also has a road map of when they can die-shrink the chip for an inevitable hardware refresh and Lite model introduction too, so even if they choose 5nm lets say, I'm sure in the process of doing that they also want a plan for when they can go to say 3nm and what kind of power efficiency said chip would have on 3nm and what kind of pricing they're looking at.
DDark
Octorok
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Not to mention, if indies were involved, the line between developer/management can start to disappear.
qwerp
Moblin
Get their games in a presentable manor for that time?
It is all just speculation. I find it strange how nor VGC or Eurogamer made a comment about March being significant in some way.
Also, that Activision email leak from yesterday. I think that was something to note.
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Nintendo would not be asking large groups of devs including indie devs in a group setting to have trailers ready for a March reveal at Gamescom.
They would be putting together a reveal video and determining which handful of third party games they would want shown in that video, then privately contact marketing execs at those companies.
EDIT: Apparently I need to explicitly point out that this is my opinion based on deductive reasoning, and I do not know the above is factually correct.
They would be putting together a reveal video and determining which handful of third party games they would want shown in that video, then privately contact marketing execs at those companies.
EDIT: Apparently I need to explicitly point out that this is my opinion based on deductive reasoning, and I do not know the above is factually correct.
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ItWasMeantToBe19
Manakete
Or they could ask for submission of trailers due in March and then do the editing later for a reveal in May or June which is perfectly reasonable?
"But the Switch reveal had only one third-party game!" yeah the Switch was the successor to the WiiU.
My general expectation is
1. Announce February Direct
2. Also send out press releasing saying "we plan to release the successor to the Nintendo Switch later this year, however, we will be showing the successor to the Nintendo Switch later this year instead of at the upcoming Direct."
3. Dedicated Switch 2 reveal event sometime in Q2 2024
4. Release in Fall 2024.
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Goodtwin
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Its not really, because for any developers who are just recently being briefed on the new hardware wouldn't be developing exclusive content to show for a March reveal but instead preparing ports. They do not need to have the ports done for a reveal trailer. Hell, they don't even need actual SNG footage, they could use footage from the Xbox Series S. Remember the October 2016 trailer showed Ubisofts snowboarding game Steep, but that game never came to Switch and seems likely that it never made it far into development for Switch. The marketing teams for these publishers could put together trailers within days of being told the company had decided to port their game to the SNG.
Its also possible Nintendo was telling developers that they were planning to release the new hardware as early as March 2024 but did not currently have a firm release date. Tom from Eurogamer had said that Nintendo was potentially looking to release their new hardware sooner than later.
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
Does it? I'm not getting 4-5 hours on Tears of the Kingdom on a single charge. I'm not saying you can't shrink AAA experiences down to a handheld at a robust level or that "last gen AAA" experiences can't get great battery life.
But as long as "AAA" means "boundary pushing for current gen" and Nintendo handheld means "comfortable mass market form factor", then it seems like that high battery life for those experiences specifically will always be out of bounds. But maybe what I'm really showing here is my disdain for AAA as a both a designation and a genre, more than the capabilities of the hardware.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Manakete
Well, if they are planning a March release, the system is getting announced in like three weeks (with a ton of games being announced in three weeks alongside it) so we'll be able to see in three weeks.
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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Four weeks.
3 weeks would be slipping in briefly before Wonder's launch. Sure I'd like it, but I'm not sure they'd risk it.
A week after Wonder, though? I could see that.
Data and ML Engineers have nothing to do with Games. Their job is to process Data and get new information out of it. It is much more likely this role will have to work with the EShop data or maybe the NSO in general. One major area is there the tracking data, to identify what people actually do when surfing on the website. Most interesting is there where people stop, because then Analysts can identify why the people didn't buy. But there are a lot of other use cases, all not gaming related at all. Of course, it could be that these engineers are processing Multiplayerdata too, but this would also mostly related to get Data from A to B, nothing which would directly go into gaming.
If you search for people, who might work on features which result in better gaming experience, it is more likely a classic Hardware or Software Engineer (specialized on hardware driver). They would work on improvements of the gaming experience. But to be honest, I don't see these positions US based. As long they partner with NVidia, it would be anyway best, if they use their resources, as they have the best engineers employed. And other Hardware was yet always mostly japan based developed.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Manakete
To add on to my previous posts, it could be that the Switch 2 reveal has multiplatform games shown with footage for the first time (with DQ12 being the most obvious game here) so they would have to get their footage ready in general for reveal instead of just being able to show PC footage of previously announced games.
Shoulder
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Ok, made it to 1632. Only about 60 pages to go…
On the subject of process nodes from last week, I can see Switch 2 being much larger than we think, given the hypothetical 8” screen. But then again, how certain are we it'll have a screen like that? And same goes with that Gamescom rumor? How certain are we of that rumor?
And by extension, whether 8nm, or 4N? All we truly know at this point is the chip itself, and as mentioned before, that is through info that was originally illegally obtained, and was not meant to hit the public realm.
The more we learn, the less we know…
On the subject of process nodes from last week, I can see Switch 2 being much larger than we think, given the hypothetical 8” screen. But then again, how certain are we it'll have a screen like that? And same goes with that Gamescom rumor? How certain are we of that rumor?
And by extension, whether 8nm, or 4N? All we truly know at this point is the chip itself, and as mentioned before, that is through info that was originally illegally obtained, and was not meant to hit the public realm.
The more we learn, the less we know…
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