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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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GPKs3 said:
switch-2-mockup.jpg
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@Concernt !
 
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Serif said:
I listened to the entire thing and frankly, they're more optimistic than most of the people responding to these reports.
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Yeah, and frankly them reminding folks that the hardware will not be as performant as the next gen consoles in raw performance is needed. Many of us know the context of hardware specs to frame these leaks around, but others may not have been paying attention.
 
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qwerp said:
why not?
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Speculation thread opens the door for possibilities.
Whether the possibilities are realistic or not isn't as fun to discuss compared to what's likely and information is a fluid thing to back one's assertions up.

We've seen high performance ARM hardware selling for under 400 USD and we've seen RAM prices going so low, you'd think semiconductor manufacturers are suffering brain damage. While it's true we've seen Nintendo act conservative with things like the Wii, we've also seen Miyamoto have a change of heart about HD graphics once he saw all the neat stuff he could do with Pikmin with more "generous" hardware. All that said and done, we know that Nintendo's next system isn't going to outgun PS5 or PS5 Pro but with what kind of GPU technology is available in mobile hardware today, the difference between 2015 and 2023 is still a significant enough amount of time to see massive improvement and as I reiterate, not many ARM-based chipsets have access to NVIDIA's GPU technology although PowerVR and Adreno are still nothing to sneeze at as technology marches on. At the very best, we can expect a closer gap in terms of porting and model quality, at the very worse at at least it's a better Switch.

Even since the beginning of this thread, tempered expectations weren't exactly based on realism so much as being cautious with what one knows at the time. So things like "Why doesn't Nintendo just run a die-shrunk Mariko" were points of discussion for what seemed viable for Nintendo while keeping costs down while having a "realistic" upgrade at the time of those posts. It helps in discussion for users to share their insight for the possibility of what Nintendo can and can't do for its next bit of kit.

So yeah, maybe it won't be the mobile juggernaut that sells for about the same or a few bucks less as a Lenovo Legion Y700 but the idea of a piece of Nintendo hardware that can keep up on hardware designated for lower power consumption while its own games reap the benefits in performance is an attractive thought to feed than predicting whose idea of the next console is the most satisfying in terms of the lowest budget to please the suits in the short-term.
 
Choosy moms choose Kix

EDIT:
Crap wait, I'm mixing up my slogans. Choosy moms choose Jif

Kix- Kid tested, mom approved.
 
Godhound said:
then you sir, and those liked your reply, are badly informed

mynintendonews.com

Nintendo says no new hardware will release this fiscal year, which ends 31st March 2024

Nintendo has confirmed to investors that they have no plans to release any new Nintendo hardware this fiscal year, which ends on 31st March, 2024. It seems fairly reasonable to think that a new…
mynintendonews.com mynintendonews.com
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There is no such declaration in any of Nintendo’s official communiques—not in the financial reports, press releases, company tweets, or any other forms of documentation. The MyNintendoNews article that you referenced was based on a VGC story, which in turn was based on Mochizuki’s account. However, I scoured the reports of the same earnings result from major Japanese press, such as Nikkei Shimbun, and none of them reported that “fact”.

When it became apparent that no one could corroborate Mochizuki’s account, VGC quietly changed the headline from “[Nintendo] warns no new hardware this year” to “[Nintendo] suggests no new hardware this year”.
 
KeijiKG said:
Speculation thread opens the door for possibilities.
Whether the possibilities are realistic or not isn't as fun to discuss compared to what's likely and information is a fluid thing to back one's assertions up.

We've seen high performance ARM hardware selling for under 400 USD and we've seen RAM prices going so low, you'd think semiconductor manufacturers are suffering brain damage. While it's true we've seen Nintendo act conservative with things like the Wii, we've also seen Miyamoto have a change of heart about HD graphics once he saw all the neat stuff he could do with Pikmin with more "generous" hardware. All that said and done, we know that Nintendo's next system isn't going to outgun PS5 or PS5 Pro but with what kind of GPU technology is available in mobile hardware today, the difference between 2015 and 2023 is still a significant enough amount of time to see massive improvement and as I reiterate, not many ARM-based chipsets have access to NVIDIA's GPU technology although PowerVR and Adreno are still nothing to sneeze at as technology marches on. At the very best, we can expect a closer gap in terms of porting and model quality, at the very worse at at least it's a better Switch.

Even since the beginning of this thread, tempered expectations weren't exactly based on realism so much as being cautious with what one knows at the time. So things like "Why doesn't Nintendo just run a die-shrunk Mariko" were points of discussion for what seemed viable for Nintendo while keeping costs down while having a "realistic" upgrade at the time of those posts. It helps in discussion for users to share their insight for the possibility of what Nintendo can and can't do for its next bit of kit.

So yeah, maybe it won't be the mobile juggernaut that sells for about the same or a few bucks less as a Lenovo Legion Y700 but the idea of a piece of Nintendo hardware that can keep up on hardware designated for lower power consumption while its own games reap the benefits in performance is an attractive thought to feed than predicting whose idea of the next console is the most satisfying in terms of the lowest budget to please the suits in the short-term.
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But it is a mobile juggernaut, though. People following this thread are also aware Drake is going to outperform all those devices in the real world simply because it's designed for gaming. This it it, no better handheld can be made on a 4N process... Marginally perhaps, but those same marginal gains will be offset by its unique feature set, also specifically meant for gaming.
 
ILikeFeet said:
it could be possible to reduce the number of sampling to speed up the algorithm. technique-wise, restir scales well. sampling lights and pixels can drive the algorithm to a crawl
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It is scalable, but even in the lowest configuration is going to be more expensive than Epic's (non-RT) direct lighting and shadowing.

Also, sampling lots of lights is the one thing that doesn't slow it to a crawl. The benefit of the algorithm is that, by virtue of using reservoir sampling, there's no direct additional cost of adding more lights. When you really start to go crazy with lights you do have some indirect costs because the data for the lights themselves has to sit in RAM somewhere.
 
ILikeFeet said:
their rendering is actually pretty modern, which tells me they really fucked up elsewhere in their programming
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Plus Creatures provides the models and is developing Detective Pikachu Returns, so I don't imagine that part of TPCi to be incompetent in terms of handling next gen hardware. If anything, I just think it's Game Freak that needs consultation on their development practices and that's simply a matter of considering more of an R&D budget, I think.
 
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Bonejack said:
Anyone else smelling March 2024 in this thread?
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Skittzo said:
March release makes way more sense than a reveal.

Why would Nintendo be telling tons of people when they plan to reveal it, 6 months before the fact?
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LukasManak22 said:
absolutely fucking yes
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Can someone please explain to me why a March (or just early 2024 launch in general) is more likely than a mid to late (so around September/October) launch? Personally i think the latter is more likely, because otherwise i think Nintendo would have at least mentioned it by now. But im open to other opinions as long as anyone's willing to explain it to me
 
The Matrix Awakens news is still hard for me to wrap my mind around. To me that is flat out the best looking thing on a PS5/XSX period, to run that with ray tracing on is ... wow. I hope they weren't overshooting with that demo.
 
Dutchie said:
Can someone please explain to me why a March (or just early 2024 launch in general) is more likely than a mid to late (so around September/October) launch? Personally i think the latter is more likely, because otherwise i think Nintendo would have at least mentioned it by now. But im open to other opinions as long as anyone's willing to explain it to me
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Because the Eurogamer or VGC article (can't remember which) say Nintendo is trying to get the console out the first half of 2024 and now Nate says that March 2024 has something happening. This is most likely either the release (less likely) or reveal (more likely). Nintendo said in the past that they want to keep the announcement to release relatively short. A March announcement and then waiting 8 months until the holidays isn't a quick timeframe. All 3 of these things combined, first half of 2024 makes the most sense.
 
Dutchie said:
Can someone please explain to me why a March (or just early 2024 launch in general) is more likely than a mid to late (so around September/October) launch? Personally i think the latter is more likely, because otherwise i think Nintendo would have at least mentioned it by now. But im open to other opinions as long as anyone's willing to explain it to me
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Here's a few reasons:
  • More sources (especially on the asian/production side) have said they expect an early/H1 2024 launch than late 2024 launch
  • Nintendo certainly don't have to mention it until they're ready to reveal it, the only reason they did that with the NX was because they wanted to reassure investors and fans that they weren't dropping out of consoles when they announced their mobile game partnership with DeNA
  • Developers (and not the close partners, but ones who would be introduced to new Switch 2 stuff now) have no reason to know when the console will be announced, 6 months before the fact. That's not information Nintendo would share with typical devs, that's information that marketing execs would be made aware of first

That being said, another thing March could refer to IMO is a console debut conference, much like the January 2017 one they had. I think that would make most sense than either a launch or a reveal, since A) Nintendo would have needed to book that space pretty far in advance and B) developers who want to attend would need to make travel plans so giving 6 months notice is helpful.

However if a conference like that is planned for March then you can expect the console to launch by June 2024.
 
hannibunny2411 said:
Did we have any rumblings in the 4-8 weeks before the first Switch Reveal in 2016? Or was the Mario curtain tweet out of nowhere?
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See:
LiC said:
If you want to predict things based on vibes, go for it. But as far as precedent is concerned, there was one (1) single person who was able to give us any idea about the Switch's announcement timing ahead of time; everyone else knew at most 2 days before when an announcement went out widely within Nintendo. That one person was Emily Rogers, who teased an October reveal on September 13. We're not that close yet, we don't have an Emily around to tell us about it, and nothing says they have to reveal it in October anyway.
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I have a stupid ass question.

But why is it that when I run a 1440p video on my 1080p gaming laptop screen or a 4k game/video on my 1440p gaming monitor it still looks noticeably better/clearer even though my monitors are hard capped at their respective resolutions? Is this a placebo effect on my end or does IQ somehow still improve?

lemonfresh said:
is the purple site still saying the leaks are fake and Nintendo is doomed?
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Most aren't, most of them are hyped and handling the news well. With some caution and some hype.

But that's just the nature of the internet now, you'll find doomers in every corner.

Some of the skeptical ones are the same ones who engage with that site just to argue with people over nothing.
 
Celine said:
I remember all the "Even with downgrades Doom 2016 can't run on Switch", "Dragon Quest XI is announced for Switch? It must be an upres port of the 3DS version!", "The Witcher III is impossible on Switch" and so on.
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It's crazy that the ports of Subnautica and the Talos Principle eventually came out. I am so glad those exist.
 
7hatDeadCat said:
🤔 and it's unlikely they would do some kind of different GPC? Is this because a GPC is uuuuh... maximally stable? dunno how to call it. They couldn't change that configuration without a lot of work? and 2SM 8TPC 1GPC isn't viable or something for binning? this would be too custom yeah?
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There are actually a couple of GPU designs with a GPC that has 8TPCs per. Orin is one of them, the 3050M is the other. So it isn't impossible, but each GPC has hardware other than just the TPCs, it's questionable if it makes sense to double that hardware as well.

Nintendo and Nvidia have seemed to go for an aggressively "desktop-like" design for the GPU. In the pre-ampere architectures, Nvidia did a lot of experimenting on how big an SM should be and how many SMs should be in a GPC. Ampere only very slightly changed that config over Turing, Ada didn't change it at all. So it really does seem like the sweet spot for cost/performance.

justanotherperson said:
Is it realistic to expect Drake to have Shader Execution Reordering, from Lovelace?
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Not impossible but I doubt it. It seems like it's still the Ampere RT core, but SER might actually live in the scheduler instead of the RT core itself, and there is some indication of minor updates there.
 
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@NateDrake have you considered that the March 2024 chatter may be referring not to the reveal or the release, but rather to a date for a live conference, similar to the January 2017 conference?

To me it seems unlikely that Nintendo would want to tell anyone 6 months ahead of time exactly when they plan to reveal the console for the first time (i.e. announce its existence) but I can definitely understand them wanting to brief partners about a time when they'll be hosting a live in-person conference and demo for it.
 
Lancelot said:
But it is a mobile juggernaut, though. People following this thread are also aware Drake is going to outperform all those devices in the real world simply because it's designed for gaming. This it it, no better handheld can be made on a 4N process... Marginally perhaps, but those same marginal gains will be offset by its unique feature set, also specifically meant for gaming.
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I did say "maybe", you know. The idea of "maybe it won't be a mobile juggernaut" isn't what I want, it's more to feed thought into the parts where people doubt Nintendo's performance envelope won't be that great and they want to keep the MSRP consumer friendly. Otherwise I wouldn't have added that bit.

The whole point of the statement could be condensed to "speculation threads are fun/interesting think of what could be, than what should be"


On a side note ice cream discussions again? I could go some banana soft serve
 
MadMarvainy said:
I have a stupid ass question.

But why is it that when I run a 1440p video on my 1080p gaming laptop screen or a 4k game/video on my 1440p gaming monitor it still looks noticeably better/clearer even though my monitors are hard capped at their respective resolutions? Is this a placebo effect on my end or does IQ somehow still improve?
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Because you are getting downsampling. Its basically like having some high quality AA applied.
 
carbvan said:
A tweet like "Tune into a live conference for the reveal, details, and new games for our next generation gaming console!"
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Then that's the console reveal announcement right there.

That would be extremely surprising to me, if they revealed it with such little fanfare, but that would be the reveal.
 
Skittzo said:
@NateDrake have you considered that the March 2024 chatter may be referring not to the reveal or the release, but rather to a date for a live conference, similar to the January 2017 conference?

To me it seems unlikely that Nintendo would want to tell anyone 6 months ahead of time exactly when they plan to reveal the console for the first time (i.e. announce its existence) but I can definitely understand them wanting to brief partners about a time when they'll be hosting a live in-person conference and demo for it.
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It could be something similar to that, yeah.
 
Skittzo said:
Then that's the console reveal announcement right there.

That would be extremely surprising to me, if they revealed it with such little fanfare, but that would be the reveal.
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I would say a 'reveal' has to disclose details and, taken more literally, images of the console. An announcement is just 'hey, this is a thing.'
 
Skittzo said:
Then that's the console reveal announcement right there.

That would be extremely surprising to me, if they revealed it with such little fanfare, but that would be the reveal.
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I don't see how that's the reveal at all. Do you count Nintendo announcing the NX alongside their DNA partnership to be the reveal then too? Or what about the tweet announcing the first look at the system? Or what about the video itself? I think the first time we see the system officially is the reveal.
 
carbvan said:
I don't see how that's the reveal at all. Do you count Nintendo announcing the NX alongside their DNA partnership to be the reveal then too? Or what about the tweet announcing the first look at the system? Or what about the video itself? I think the first time we see the system officially is the reveal.
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The difference here is that the instant they acknowledge a new console is coming, they've put a huge damper on their current console's sales, and therefore their current business overall. This was not the case for the NX.

The second they announce a new console is coming I will consider it as being the reveal, and I would be absolutely shocked if they do it with a tweet.

The whole "tune in tonight/tomorrow for a first look" is different, since it's just a hype teaser for the real reveal happening shortly after. That type of thing I can absolutely see again. But I seriously doubt we're getting a "Tune into our live conference in 2 months where we debut our new console, of which we will not offer any details right now."
 
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