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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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Concernt said:
No smoking gun... But more smoke. And there's no smoke without fire.
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Sure, but could be this

S2Fami.png


(but hey I'm still one of the ones who hasn't 100% written off 2023 yet...just wanted to make a topical reference for once)
 
Raccoon said:
Ray-Traced Wave Race
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can’t wait for Nintendo to make a bad bad splash when the ray-traced Wave Race battle royale releases as the TeraSwitch launch title and they don’t workshop the name localization for long enough…

Wave Race War
 
ziggyrivers said:
There’s a new leadership. Senior employees are now in more supervisory positions. The Switch was launched by a transitory president. We’ve have s proper one now
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Having DLC is something that started with Iwata.

While I do think Nintendo is different in some aspects compared to a decade ago, I‘d say this has more to do with that the market itself is changing and Nintendo needs to adapt to it.
 
Mirev said:
You have still to keep in mind that today's Nintendo =/ Nintendo before Switch.
Many people changed. Do u remember when Nintendo said "no DLCs" and now we get them announced before the relese of the games?
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I dont remember thay said "no dlc". I remember Iwata saying something to the effect of "we will not deceive with DLC" meaning charging extra for content thats already in the launch version of the game.

Edit: even though that's arguably what they're doing with Amibos.
 
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EdFiftyNine said:
Singer’s testimony is a pre-recorded video apparently so not sure we’ll get that much :/ Will be interesting to see Nintendo’s thoughts on the deal with Microsoft though.

I expect a lot of his statements will be exaggerated on Twitter though if there’s even a trace of NG Switch mentioned.
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I don’t think we would’ve gotten much from him anyway unless he pulled blunders like the Google Stadia representative or someone failing to redact a document. My guess would be that Singer is there to confirm Nintendo is competition & move away from the FTC’s argument that they are a separate market all by their lonesome. If the FTC is questioning him then you can be sure they’ll waste everyone’s time asking.
 
Onizuka said:
I saw it here.



But where are Kotick's statements? I can't find them anywhere officially.
And in case it's real, I expected something more between PS4 and Xbox Series S, maybe something similar to PS4 Pro.
So we won't have anything close to PS4 Pro but portable right?
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This is all that was said: “Given closer alignment of Gen 8 platforms and our previous offerings on PS4 and Xbox One, it’s reasonable to assume we can make something compelling for NG [next-gen] Switch as well.”
 
Bonejack said:
I'd assume that priority is way behind other partners like Capcom, SQEX, SEGA and so on.
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Agree. People have to remember that Nintendo can be a resentful company at times. This is the same company that excluded the original developers of Metroid Prime from the credits in Metroid Prime Remastered. Its reasonable to think that Nintendo may be a bit bitter with the publishers that declined to show Switch any support at launch and therefore if they didn't need them for a successful launch with Switch, then they wont need them for the Redacted launch. Nintendo has certain publishers that they consider preferred partners and they will be the ones with early access to development kits. I will not be shocked if many western publishers are delivered kits until Nintendo is ready to reveal Redacted to the public.
 
Mr Doggo said:
I think people give the switch too little credit. For such a small tablet i think it has some amazing looking games, MPR being my favorite.

The idea that the next console will be as powerful as the ps4 sounds super cool to me. No one can look me in the eyes and say that The Last of Us 2 doesnt looks amazing.
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It literally looks like a PS1 game

/s
 
Goodtwin said:
Agree. People have to remember that Nintendo can be a resentful company at times. This is the same company that excluded the original developers of Metroid Prime from the credits in Metroid Prime Remastered. Its reasonable to think that Nintendo may be a bit bitter with the publishers that declined to show Switch any support at launch and therefore if they didn't need them for a successful launch with Switch, then they wont need them for the Redacted launch. Nintendo has certain publishers that they consider preferred partners and they will be the ones with early access to development kits. I will not be shocked if many western publishers are delivered kits until Nintendo is ready to reveal Redacted to the public.
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The “resentful company” part was mostly during the Yamauchi era.
 
Goodtwin said:
Agree. People have to remember that Nintendo can be a resentful company at times.
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I don't think it even requires resentment - Activision just isn't a company Nintendo has a deep relationship with. Activision did have a Switch launch title - but it was a port of a multiplat that was already on Wii U, and a couple months old. That didn't need an early devkit to get going.

That said, I would expect Activision to have a devkit and full specs if the launch were imminent. I believe the 2023 coffin is so full of nails it's mostly metal at this point, but add another.
 
oldpuck said:
FTC has an email between Armin Zerza, then Chief Commercial Officer of ActiBlizz and "The Head of Nintendo". That is probably Doug Bowser in context. This email happened over 2 years ago, as Zerza was promoted to CFO in April of 2021.

That email contained referenced an executive summary of "Switch NG".

Zerza responds that, considering how close the PS4/Xbone versions of Call of Duty are to their Series S|X/PS5 versions, and based on the executive summary, it should be possible to deliver a good version of CoD.
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Thanks for the correction. I’d like to add that although the email between Zerza and a Nintendo higher-up was presented in court, it doesn’t necessarily indicate that Kotick himself has not talked with Nintendo regarding the Switch NG. We simply don’t know. The absence of evidence and all that.
 
Unfortunately Steve Singer's video testimony will be viewed in closed court today (if it hasn't already) as it contains confidential info. Slightly juicy knowing they want to hide it, but who knows why, and it still sucks we don't have the opportunity for tidbits
 
olobolger said:
* Hidden text: cannot be quoted. *
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I interpreted that as "so you understand that if the R button is bigger then it has implications for the size/ergonomics of the rest of the Joycons." You could stretch it further and think it has implications for the display but I think most of here believe that they're not going to make the switch tablet/screen portion any bigger than the OLED switch is today.
 
EdFiftyNine said:
This is what excites me more than any potential PS4 / X1 port. Nintendo first party games using new more powerful hardware is going to be incredible. Imagine what a Zelda game pushing the next switch to its limit looks like when we’ve just had TOTK do that for Switch. Gonna be crazy!
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This but DONKY KONG


7849-screenshot-7285.jpg
 
I still don't understand (because I think that's what will happen) why Ubisoft won't launch the next Assasins Creed on the same launch day as on PS5 and Xbox Series, for Next Switch, I even think they won't even launch AC later.
I think the same about games like GTA VI, and even other important titles from Japanese third parties, that even in the event that they do not have temporary exclusivity with another platform, I think that they will arrive later, or even not arrive at Next Switch (next Persona, Yakuza , Final Fantasy, MH "World 2", Next Resident Evil, DmC "6"...)
I am convinced that all these great titles will not arrive at launch on Next Switch, but I go further and I even dare to say that they will not arrive even later, even if Next Switch could have a performance that allows a decent or quality port.


I find it incredible how convinced I am of this despite having no information.
Why will companies continue to treat Nintendo this way even if it has a console that could receive ports day 1 (or months later) in a decent way?
Why will companies treat Nintendo like this (which I'm sure of)?
What do you think.
 
squinters said:
Unfortunately Steve Singer's video testimony will be viewed in closed court today (if it hasn't already) as it contains confidential info. Slightly juicy knowing they want to hide it, but who knows why, and it still sucks we don't have the opportunity for tidbits
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here's a report on this

TtNJdlH.png

TOM WARREN
We won’t get to hear from Nintendo today. Steve Singer, SVP of developer relations at Nintendo, is appearing in court by video deposition. As the video contains lots of confidential information Judge Corley will view it in closed court.

Nintendo has been at the center of an ongoing battle about whether the Switch is competition to the Xbox and PlayStation.

Microsoft also signed a deal with Nintendo to bring Call of Duty to the Nintendo Switch if the Activision deal closes. We learned yesterday that this would also include a future Nintendo console, so it’s a shame we won’t hear more about Call of Duty on Switch today.
www.theverge.com

FTC v. Microsoft: all the news from the big Xbox courtroom battle

Microsoft won its case against the FTC on June 11th.
www.theverge.com www.theverge.com
 
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Onizuka said:
I still don't understand (because I think that's what will happen) why Ubisoft won't launch the next Assasins Creed on the same launch day as on PS5 and Xbox Series, for Next Switch, I even think they won't even launch AC later.
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Because [redacted] won't be out yet when Mirage comes out
 
oldpuck said:
First off, I think this review is unfortunately bad. It's unclear from the review how the settings differed between the frame gen and non frame gen case.

As the article points out, DLSS 3 can generate 7 out of 8 pixels, and that is the "default" that Nvidia encourages - but that is DLSS Performance mode upscaling + Frame Gen. But the upscaling only benchmarks are Quality mode. And Forza, I believe, allows you to set the scaling factor independent of frame generation.

It's unclear if the frame gen case in these benchmarks represent moving from DLSS Quality Mode in the second bar to DLSS Quality Mode + Frame Gen, DLSS Frame Gen only, or DLSS Perf Mode + Frame gen. The last one would be the Most Wrong, but is also the one the describe in their short technical overview of Frame Gen. The second one would be Also Kinda Wrong, but is the one implied by their graph labeling. The first one would be the closest thing to Useful to An Average PC Gamer. But it's totally unclear.

Second off, Frame Gen can be a performance win even if it takes longer to generate a frame than it does to natively render, and it can be a performance loss even if it's faster. Which is fucking wild but worth pointing out. Frame Gen begins running when there are sufficient native in the buffer, and frame gen will stop if there aren't.

The ideal case for frame gen is in a heavily CPU bound game. Frame Gen buffers from 1 and frame 2 as soon as the GPU renders them. When the second frame is buffered, the CPU begins prepping frame 3, leaving the GPU idle. This lets frame gen interpolate frame 1.5 in this idle period.

If the CPU occupies more than 50% of frame time, then frame gen can be slower than native rendering and still have time to execute. If CPU time is less than 50% of frame time, then even very fast frame gen might not have enough time.

Cyberpunk is a big heavy game - we can tell because it's not even hitting 20fps native on the 4060. It's also is pretty GPU bound - we can tell both because DLSS quality mode doubles frame rate, proportional to its upscaling factor, and because the 4060 Ti, which is 33% more powerful than the 4060, gets 33% more performance.

Forza Horizon 5 is much lighter, over 60fps, and lightly CPU bound - increase GPU performance does increase frame rates, but not proportionally. So while the game might be CPU bound, the CPU chunk of frame time is almost definitely shorter than Cyberpunk's leaving less room for FG to run.

Considering that [redacted] has a GPU that is likely near last gen's performance, but a CPU much more powerful than last gen, I'm dubious frame gen can actually do anything, as framerates are most likely to be GPU bound on it, even in DLSS Performance situations.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I left out a lot of nuance there, although I'd argue there are two cases where frame generation is useful; where the game is heavily CPU bound as you mention, and where the game is GPU bound at sufficiently low frame rates that FG can operate significantly faster than actual rendering. It's not a coincidence that the games provided for reviewers of the RTX 4090 were Flight Simulator and Cyberpunk 2077, which are relatively extreme examples of each case. As it relates to this thread, I'm more interested in the latter case, or more specifically the boundary between FG being beneficial or not in GPU limited scenarios, as it could indicate whether it's feasible at all on less powerful hardware like The New Machine.

In that respect, while the review isn't great at labelling the exact settings used, it's the least worst data, and does give us something to work with. As you say, there are a few different possibilities for exactly what the FG bar represents, however your second case (frame gen only) seems very unlikely, as Cyberpunk 2077 sees a 3.6x improvement over native rendering, which is well beyond the 2x limit of Nvidia's frame generation approach. Which means the FG bar either accurately reflects the relative impact of frame generation (ie it's DLSS Quality + frame gen) or it over-states the impact of frame generation (ie it's DLSS Perf + frame gen). In interpreting the Cyberpunk results this is relevant, but in the other cases, where we see much worse scaling with frame generation, I don't think it takes away from my point, which is that frame generation itself can be GPU bound. If benefits from FG are low even when over-stating the effects of FG, then that further reinforces the point.

Basically, if the T239's GPU takes 100ms to generate a frame using DLSS FG, then the question of whether a game is CPU bound or not is somewhat academic. For FG to be at all viable on T239, then I'd expect that on a much more powerful GPU like the RTX 4060 it would be able to provide significant benefit to games running at 60+fps natively at 4K. Though the review isn't particularly well labelled, even with the most generous interpretation FG provides reduced benefits as native frame rates increase, suggesting that even at 1440p it becomes bottlenecked by the performance requirements of the frame generation itself pretty quickly.
 
Nintendo always get to show things in private, remember when epic vs apple first public documentation didn't redacted any info except where Nintendo info was included.
 
Onizuka said:
I am convinced that all these great titles will not arrive at launch on Next Switch, but I go further and I even dare to say that they will not arrive even later, even if Next Switch could have a performance that allows a decent or quality port.
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Let me get this straight, you believe the switch 2 will have worse support than the switch?
 
davec00ke said:
Because it sells poorly on the switch
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By my count Ubisoft have now ported five Assassin's Creed games to Switch, so they obviously see a market for the franchise on Switch. These were all originally released on Xbox 360/PS3, though, and their PS4/XBO games have all been 30fps and likely CPU bound, which might have made porting them to Switch difficult without significant compromises. With Mirage being a cross-gen title, there's little technical reason it shouldn't be able to run on The New Machine, although the same may not be the case for future titles. In any case, I would be very surprised if we didn't get further Assassin's Creed releases on the new hardware, even if it's just ports of Origins/Odyssey/Valhalla/etc.
 
u3izwUh.png

TOM WARREN
Nintendo Switch impacted Xbox Series S pricing. We’re back on the Nintendo Switch beat again. I knew it would come eventually. Microsoft’s lawyer is questioning Xbox CFO Tim Stuart now.

Stuart confirms the Nintendo Switch is an Xbox competitor and has impacted the price of Xbox Series S:
Yes at that price point when you’re considering playing FIFA or Minecraft or any of the games across platform, you have to make sure your price relative to the competition in the market
Click to expand...
www.theverge.com

FTC v. Microsoft: all the news from the big Xbox courtroom battle

Microsoft won its case against the FTC on June 11th.
www.theverge.com www.theverge.com
 
1UpMango said:
u3izwUh.png

TOM WARREN
Nintendo Switch impacted Xbox Series S pricing. We’re back on the Nintendo Switch beat again. I knew it would come eventually. Microsoft’s lawyer is questioning Xbox CFO Tim Stuart now.

Stuart confirms the Nintendo Switch is an Xbox competitor and has impacted the price of Xbox Series S:
www.theverge.com

FTC v. Microsoft: all the news from the big Xbox courtroom battle

Microsoft won its case against the FTC on June 11th.
www.theverge.com www.theverge.com
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Funny is example was fifa. Considering Switch only has legacy editions.
 
oldpuck said:
I don't think it even requires resentment - Activision just isn't a company Nintendo has a deep relationship with. Activision did have a Switch launch title - but it was a port of a multiplat that was already on Wii U, and a couple months old. That didn't need an early devkit to get going.

That said, I would expect Activision to have a devkit and full specs if the launch were imminent. I believe the 2023 coffin is so full of nails it's mostly metal at this point, but add another.
Click to expand...

I'd expect Activision to be one of the last major publishers to get dev kits just from lack of interest on their side if nothing else. There's a major lawsuit going on right now where one of the major arguments being made is that, even if CoD games could run on Nintendo hardware, Activision wouldn't bother bringing them to the platform unless forced to by Microsoft. The fact that the Activision side of Activision-Blizzard has all but stopped development of anything that's not Call of Duty also means that there are simply fewer games for them to consider releasing on the hardware.
 
Thraktor said:
I'd expect Activision to be one of the last major publishers to get dev kits just from lack of interest on their side if nothing else. There's a major lawsuit going on right now where one of the major arguments being made is that, even if CoD games could run on Nintendo hardware, Activision wouldn't bother bringing them to the platform unless forced to by Microsoft. The fact that the Activision side of Activision-Blizzard has all but stopped development of anything that's not Call of Duty also means that there are simply fewer games for them to consider releasing on the hardware.
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Yeah, I think Blizzard would be EXTREMELY interested in having Diablo 4 on the Switch 2 so this idea that ABK isn't a publisher who would get dev kits seems pretty weird!

I'm sure Blizzard also wants OW2 to run at 60 FPS on Nintendo hardware.
 
1UpMango said:
u3izwUh.png

TOM WARREN
Nintendo Switch impacted Xbox Series S pricing. We’re back on the Nintendo Switch beat again. I knew it would come eventually. Microsoft’s lawyer is questioning Xbox CFO Tim Stuart now.

Stuart confirms the Nintendo Switch is an Xbox competitor and has impacted the price of Xbox Series S:
www.theverge.com

FTC v. Microsoft: all the news from the big Xbox courtroom battle

Microsoft won its case against the FTC on June 11th.
www.theverge.com www.theverge.com
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And Drake will not be that much weaker than this system, so it should be the closest since the PS2/GCN/OGXbox days
 
SiG said:
The “resentful company” part was mostly during the Yamauchi era.
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They were absolutely over the top arrogant back in those days. That is why I brought up the Metroid Prime Remastered, leaving out the original development team of the Remastered credits was intentional, and shows that Nintendo can be a bit salty when you don't stick with the company.

oldpuck said:
I don't think it even requires resentment - Activision just isn't a company Nintendo has a deep relationship with. Activision did have a Switch launch title - but it was a port of a multiplat that was already on Wii U, and a couple months old. That didn't need an early devkit to get going.

That said, I would expect Activision to have a devkit and full specs if the launch were imminent. I believe the 2023 coffin is so full of nails it's mostly metal at this point, but add another.
Click to expand...

Probably so, but I do think the comments about insinuating the next Switch would be comparable PS4/X1 can be something they do know even if they do not know exact specs numbers. I could for example tell you that I have a PC that has similar graphics capabilities to the PS4/X1 without telling yo the specs, and in a way, the specs could vary wildly to meets that performance. You cant necessarily extrapolate how many GPU cores I have based on a Tflop number. I could have a small number of cores clocked very high or lots of cores clocked low. If we are to assume Redacted releases in late 2024, are we really going to sit here and think Nintendo hasnt at the very least given publishers some kind of performance window to expect? So even if Nintendo isn't revealing the exact numbers to publishers, by informing them to expect PS4/X1 levels of performance, that would give them a place to start preparing well before they ever receive physical hardware.
 
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kalosmani said:
Looking at the new redacted documents of cost of making AAA games I think Nintendo have made the right decision to not chase power. I can see Switch 2 being the last generational jump (PS4 level power). Then Switch 3 and 4 will just be cross gen, generations with continuation of support for Switch 2 going forward.
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Generally speaking, these generational leaps are getting smaller and smaller in the industry. Its becoming harder and harder for PS and Xbox to separate themselves from Nintendo from a tech standpoint. PS1 -> PS2 type jumps are gone which is why I hope TOTK inspires the industry to not chase visuals as much and focus more on the interactivity of games.
 
Thraktor said:
Basically, if the T239's GPU takes 100ms to generate a frame using DLSS FG, then the question of whether a game is CPU bound or not is somewhat academic. For FG to be at all viable on T239, then I'd expect that on a much more powerful GPU like the RTX 4060 it would be able to provide significant benefit to games running at 60+fps natively at 4K. Though the review isn't particularly well labelled, even with the most generous interpretation FG provides reduced benefits as native frame rates increase, suggesting that even at 1440p it becomes bottlenecked by the performance requirements of the frame generation itself pretty quickly.
Click to expand...
100% agree on all counts.

I think I actually could extract a ballpark FG overhead from these numbers, but you're also right that there is no sense how it scales. I would imagine that some portion of FG time is optical flow analysis, and I expect that subset to scale with clockspeed only, as I imagine that OFA is the same regardless of the size of the card.

Okay, i've already gotten a FG overhead estimate, but I haven't checked my math. But I could see Drake reasonably taking something like 45ms to generate a 1440p frame. You'd need something like a 15fps title to get anywhere with frame gen, and it would be like a slide show mixed in with a second, blurry slideshow. Ugh
 
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