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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
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Wockio
Kikwi Enthusiast
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Because Switch is still going sell, and games might not be ready
ziggyrivers
thunder
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- He/him/his
Plus it’ll all be crossgen. I imagine next Zelda and Gen10 Pokemon will be Redacted exclusive
D
Deleted member 645
Guest
lattjeful
Like Like
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- he/him
I didn’t wanna say it, but…So Grubb is hearing something from Nintendo in July…
Switch Lite was announced July 10, 2019.
Switch OLED was announced July 6, 2021. ~2 years later.
Switch 2 [fill in the blank]…
edit: those were the wednesday and tuesday of July’s second week. ergo, Switch 2 announcement will be July 11-12.
Fuck it I’m back on Team 2023 until July
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
I so want this to be true, but it's hard to imagine who would know that Nintendo was doing a digital event in July, who wouldn't know if it was a hardware reveal. Grubb has usually gotten his Direct knowledge from publishing partners who know the dates because they have games featured. It seems highly likely that Nintendo is asking around, beginning to compile what's going to show, and giving folks deadlines for providing them with media, hence the implication of a Direct. And if Grubb's source is a decent sized III company, then it wouldn't be clear if it was a Direct or an IndieWorld
Not saying my option is the correct or most likely one. I was just saying that there is plenty of room between “Nintendo has nothing for the holiday” and “Nintendo is launching redacted this holiday”
Last year, this thread reminded people - correctly - that Nintendo fires the next-gen hardware arrow not being sure what the environment will be when it lands. Nintendo doesn't have absolute control over every aspect of the timeline. If they did, then the tapering of software and hardware sales would have never happened to any console.
Just because it's the best business decision to launch REDACTED in Holiday 2023 doesn't mean Nintendo is ready to launch in 2023. Maybe Nintendo has nothing - as in really nothing, as in their launch titles for REDACTED aren't ready, and they're going to have to eat their losses this holiday. Or maybe Nintendo has banger after banger lined up and there will be no significant flagging of software between now and whenever REDACTED launches. My only point is that "New hardware or No holiday title" are not the only options.
OP
OP
Speaking of Apple's software offerings, Apple seems to prohibit having the finished version of video games run on any API that's not Metal.Process nodes are only one part of the equation with respect to hardware. How hardware's designed is equally as important as which process node is being used to fabricate said hardware.
One example is with the RTX 3070.
Although the RTX 3070 doesn't beat the RX 6800 in terms of performance per watt, the RTX 3070 is still pretty close to the RX 6800 in terms of performance per watt. And the RTX 3070 does beat the RX 6800 in terms of performance per dollar. And although the RTX 3070 consumes more power than the RX 6800 when idling and with multiple monitors, the RTX 3070 does consume less power than the RX 6800 when playing media and playing games. (And remember that Nvidia's using Samsung's 8N process node to fabricate the RTX 3070 vs TSMC's N7P process node for the RX 6800.)
So again, the hardware's design's equally as important as the process node being used to fabricate said hardware.
And I think software is equally as important as hardware. I believe Nvidia's software expertise, as seen with the NVN API, is the major reason for the Nintendo Switch being one of Nintendo's most successful consoles in terms of third party developers. I don't think Apple's software offerings, with respect to video games, is remotely comparable with Nvidia's software offerings, and/or AMD's software offerings.
I can only think of the following:
Apple's GPUs are losing the competitive edge to Qualcomm's GPUs in terms of performance and power efficiency with respect to smartphones, as Geekerwan shows.
- Early access to TSMC's cutting edge process nodes
- Exclusive access to Apple's custom Arm based CPU designs, which are better than what Arm currently offers with respect to Arm's Cortex-A designs
And as I mentioned above, software's equally as important as hardware. And I don't believe Apple's software offerings, with respect to video games, is remotely comparable to Nvidia's software offerings, and/or AMD's software offerings.
So I don't think Nintendo's currently going to gain that much from being acquired by Apple, hypothetically speaking.
I don't think developers, especially third party developers, want a very restrictive video game development ecosystem.
Honestly if I were Ninty and I had a console that could feasibly make it for holiday 2023. I don't know that I wouldn't plan for March-May 2024 (and announce in Jan/Feb) just to get those sweet switch 1 final holiday sales. I'd go further to say even if I had say Mario kart 9 near-ready, I'd resell an enhanced MK8 port and then have MK9 be a 2024 holiday title. Maybe that's short sighed of me, but if I just want to maximise revenue in the short term, why not?
I think past instances of this have suggested that third parties (at least at the level the leaks are coming from) aren't necessarily aware of the format the show will take. Assuming that is the case, then the only indication it would be a hardware reveal (or adjacent to one) would be if you're providing Switch 2 footage for it, something that absolutely wouldn't be happening for 100% of the games featured unless Nintendo specifically split up their announcements along those lines.
A lot of coordination goes into a console launch. Moving them without good reason is costly and liable to annoy third party publishers. Not to mention that a Switch 2 early adopter is much more valuable to Nintendo wrt software sales than a Switch 1 late adopter.
TLZ
Like Like
Oh believe me, it will.
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
I take your point, but I just find it inconceivable that Nintendo would announce REDACTED and mix it in with third party announcements for non-cross-gen, base Switch titles. While Nintendo may want to indicate continued Switch support, it would be bad for the third parties who are either blasted out of the conversation by a new hardware launch, or who consumers conflate those titles with REDACTED games, damaging both the games and the console.
If E3 were happening, then I'd lend it more credence. In the context of E3, there are a number of people who might know about a Nintendo event without knowing what it is. There is room for Nintendo to be contacting non-developers and letting them know about schedules, so Grubb might have a non-dev source. But in an era without the need to buy floor space, coordinate with physically present press, or cross-promote with an ongoing event, then the only likely source is a dev, and I think the leap from "Nintendo is asking devs for Direct material" to "hardware announcement" is huge even if you accept that Nintendo might mix the two.
I just think that Nintendo usually needs 3-5 presentations a year to show off games, and when E3 doesn't exist, they don't have to schedule around it, so why not do it after Pikmin rather than before?
ziggyrivers
thunder
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Nintendo could just show their own redacted software and then showcase third parties later
To some degree, it depends on what you mean by "hardware announcement". If you strictly mean the trailer where the hardware itself gets announced, then that will probably be a Switch 2 only affair where everyone involved knows what's going on, but I'm also expecting that to be similar to the Switch 1, where the reveal is a standalone trailer focused entirely on the hardware with little game focus and very little third party involvement in general. The actual meat of the presentation where games are talked about would only happen a week or two later, and could feasibly just be a normal Direct.
Now with that said, I'll definitely entertain the idea that Nintendo would split up the announcements and do an "extra" 4th general Direct entirely focused on games that will run natively on the new hardware, but I don't really see much benefit in doing it after Pikmin specifically, as that game is likely to feature, albeit briefly. This is sort of what I was mentioned in the Direct thread as a "Direct sandwich" where they first do a normal Switch 1 summer Direct, then do the hardware announcement, then do a second, entirely Switch 2 Direct.
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
I think Nintendo has lots of options, but it seems - and maybe I've lost the thread a little here - like we're going around our ass to get to our elbow to see how two hints of a Direct indicate a hardware launch announcement.
It wasn't a fun hype cycle last year when, at around this time, the rumor "Nintendo doesn't have a lot to announce right now and they'll do some smaller digital events" turned out to not be evidence of new hardware but evidence of... exactly what it said it was. We got a Partner Showcase on June 28th - within spitting distance of July.
I would love for this to be The Moment, but in as much as there is any kind of rumbling at all it seems to be "Nintendo doing same kinda thing they did last year for the same kinda reasons."
It's like I'm watching the construction and deconstruction of Gumby-like structures.
Personally, I'm not putting tons of stock into the specific rumblings at this point anyway, I'm just pretty confident that Nintendo has things to announce this year because the situation is pretty materially different and their schedule up to this point isn't signalling a sharp dropoff. They can't really do the same thing they did last year because they didn't do the necessary setup that they built off of to make that schedule work.
Whenever the hardware releases, neither Nintendo nor third parties will be done with Switch, and announcements about it will need to be made somehow. Either they'll be mixed together or one of the standard slots will probably be somewhat decomposed. If there were a partner showcase this summer, that would be very suspicious in an environment where Nintendo is still refusing to acknowledge months after July exist.
Z0m3le
Bob-omb
The GPU clock of 1.125GHz for 3.456TFLOPs is pretty likely. Thraktor has convinced me that they are using TSMC 4N through his logical arguments, and that is enough to hit that sort of performance docked.
XBSS should have more CPU power and memory power, it will even have more raw GPU performance, but Drake should offer more advanced feature set, RT cores, Tensor cores (DLSS), which should allow it to run games at the same resolution or higher than Series S. I also don't think CPU bottlenecks will really exist if Thraktor is right about TSMC 4N, which would allow them to use a 2GHz clock or better fairly easily.
Yep, I hope my post came off as a bit of a trade off, it will do some things better than XBSS, but not everything. I do think that it might have better ports though, since XBSS is sort of an after thought to the Xbox platform and Drake is target box for Nintendo once it releases.
I think it really doesn't matter if the hardware launches Q3 or Q4, it's not a big deal. I'd expect new hardware in both quarters frankly. A new entry Switch in one quarter, and Drake powered Nintendo hardware in the other. If we look at the lead up to NX's full reveal as the Switch, it was in the works from Spring 2014 and revealed in holiday 2016 with a 4 and a half month advance on it's release. Drake has been in the works since ~Spring 2020, with a reveal next month, it would have 4+ months before release much like Switch had. No one knew about the new 3D Mario game, and while Miyamoto has said we can expect it, we don't actually have rumors about it, it's just a thing that is happening. It also wouldn't make sense for TotK DLC to miss this new hardware IMO.
Looking back at 3DS during 2017, we saw the release of the Switch, and just 4 months later, Nintendo released the New 2DS XL, and actually raised sales of the 3DS platform yoy. With TotK's crazy selling power, 15 Million Switch units this year is quite possible, and if next year has the new Switch Mini with a Vita like form factor and maybe OLED screen for $179, I do think it could keep sales momentum going. 3DS sold almost 10M units after Switch launched, Switch is in a position to do at least that with a popular redesign, especially because it should keep support through 2025 and into 2026.
Oddly, Nintendo did comment that hardware they release this FY is not included in that 15M unit sales target, which is only a relevant comment from Nintendo, if they think they might release hardware this FY, otherwise, the comment makes no sense. Whether that means they are launching Drake this FY or a new Switch model, they believe that they might do just that and are making their investors aware that they are not factoring in this hardware with their sales targets.
Lastly, Drake hardware is ready for mass production as far as we know, Miyamoto's comments about a new Mario game, and the length of time since Odyssey's release, does lend itself to Mario being ready this holiday, we won't know until we know, but as I said in my last post, the Pokemon leaker did say that a patch for Drake hardware would be out this Winter in the new Pokemon games, and while we can apply the idea that he could be making that up, the reality is that the rest of the information in the original post is legit, there is no direct reason not to believe it, other than to save our egos, personally with all that we know about Drake's timeline, Mario Odyssey's release date, and ultimately Nintendo's silence on software... Drake should be coming soon, anytime between November and April is fair game IMO.
ShadowFox08
Paratroopa
That 4chan rumor may be true, but we might never know cause I feel like Nintendo is on the leaks and they adjust their dates accordingly to throw off/spite leakers.
Could Nintendo sell 15 million switch units (assuming it doesn't include switch 2) for this year? Could 3D Mario (ahem, Odyssey a successor) sell more than 2D Mario
Could Nintendo sell 15 million switch units (assuming it doesn't include switch 2) for this year? Could 3D Mario (ahem, Odyssey a successor) sell more than 2D Mario
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Dunno where some people read that Grubb said it's some Nintendo event, from what i gathered the talk was definitely on it being a Direct, just unsure what kind of.
If it's a Direct, then it'll very likely not have anything to do with hardware at all. Evenmoreso if it's a Mini or Partner Showcase.
Though, for the sake of discussion, i'll just say that, imo, July would be the last opportunity for ReDraketed to be announced for a CY 2023 release.
'Cause even if you're trying to keep a short timeframe between announcement and release, you'd want at least 5-6 months for marketing.
No hardware announcement in July means it's definitely a CY 2024 thing.
If it's a Direct, then it'll very likely not have anything to do with hardware at all. Evenmoreso if it's a Mini or Partner Showcase.
Though, for the sake of discussion, i'll just say that, imo, July would be the last opportunity for ReDraketed to be announced for a CY 2023 release.
'Cause even if you're trying to keep a short timeframe between announcement and release, you'd want at least 5-6 months for marketing.
No hardware announcement in July means it's definitely a CY 2024 thing.
HankyPanky
Bob-omb
- Pronouns
- Funcle
Nintendo could sell out Switch Pro/2 for the first year with purely cross-gen versions of existing titles already in the pipeline. especially if these titles are significant upgrades on the base versions. i don't see why it has to make a big splash when there are already enough Switch owners who will willingly upgrade. TOTK was the perfect game to start a lengthy cross-gen period and when exclusive titles are ready it'll take things to the next level. the whole 'waiting on software' I see as a fallacy if it will run all the same software. the market is there for it already, it's an easy slam dunk whenever they release it so what are they waiting for?
NintenDuvo
Bob-omb
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- He him
Has there been some new rumblings from our Funcles that Mass production could be starting soon?
eye0h
"it is known"
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- He/Him
"something" or a direct? because it could just be a partner showcase. they have shown they aren't opposed to doing that in july.So Grubb is hearing something from Nintendo in July…
Switch Lite was announced July 10, 2019.
Switch OLED was announced July 6, 2021. ~2 years later.
Switch 2 [fill in the blank]…
edit: those were the wednesday and tuesday of July’s second week. ergo, Switch 2 announcement will be July 11-12.
Erathix
Famiro
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Quiet you, don't be going on about some dark alternate reality now, you hear? There won't be none of this "partner showcase in July" nonsense. We're in that other reality, you know, the one where Nintendo is going to talk about that here Switch 2 console the kids keep on rumouring about.
ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
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Nintendo choosing to put Mario-NEXT on the switch when the switch already has its own custom 3D Mario would certainly be… a choice.
I’m aware Galaxy 2 was on the Wii, but that’s like the only time they’ve done it. I think.
I’m aware Galaxy 2 was on the Wii, but that’s like the only time they’ve done it. I think.
Link_enfant
Fashion Dreamer
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I wish there was more smoke about an upcoming hardware reveal in general but sadly, I can't be too optimistic for this month or even July 
Or Nintendo has just reached a whole new level of keeping things secret, preventing leaks from about everywhere.
If it's been something like this for quite long, I can't imagine the relief for all parties involved once they reveal it.
But I don't think even Nintendo could lock things so much for long enough, there should be much more smoke, and Jeff Grubb hearing rumblings about a Nintendo thing in July is way too few smoke to me.
Sorry for my occasional bad English!
Or Nintendo has just reached a whole new level of keeping things secret, preventing leaks from about everywhere.
If it's been something like this for quite long, I can't imagine the relief for all parties involved once they reveal it.
But I don't think even Nintendo could lock things so much for long enough, there should be much more smoke, and Jeff Grubb hearing rumblings about a Nintendo thing in July is way too few smoke to me.
Sorry for my occasional bad English!
manfromthedam
Semi Undercover Game Music Guy
Ahh, that feeling of new hardware hope that arrives every year around this time. My sanity can't take another round of that, but godspeed to y'all! xD
Same, with the exception that they've refreshed the OG Switch from 2017 in 2019 (Lite) and 2021 (Swoled), implying new hardware in 2023. Of course, that's not a lot of data points to make a pattern, and patterns are only useful until they're not (yearly Zelda comes to mind).
"something from Nintendo" is probably just a direct imo.So Grubb is hearing something from Nintendo in July…
Switch Lite was announced July 10, 2019.
Switch OLED was announced July 6, 2021. ~2 years later.
Switch 2 [fill in the blank]…
edit: those were the wednesday and tuesday of July’s second week. ergo, Switch 2 announcement will be July 11-12.
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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- She/Her
A Direct full of sweet fuck all, then.
I still believe they have a surprise or 2.
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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- She/Her
My hope for new games is at dangerously unlethal levels, even WITH a new console. I have no idea what a Direct for Switch 1 games could be except remakes...
HankyPanky
Bob-omb
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- Funcle
after the huge success of the movie now is exactly the time for a new Mario game. probably a 2D one as the big Holiday title i'd imagine. I genuinely don't think there's enough smoke at the manufacturing/dev level for Switch 2 to be a thing this year. almost nothing coming through at the uncle/funcle/buncle level which is ominous. if so they've done a hell of a job keeping a lid on things.
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ziggyrivers
thunder
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Remakes, HD Remasters, DLC and maybe the introduction of HD Remastered 3DS games?
Evil Lucario
Star Successor
If 3DS remasters take the place of Wii U ports to fill gaps, I'd be fine with that. The 3DS has some of my favorite games and more people getting to play them would be swell.
Metroid Prime 4, new 2d mario maybe.
It would make no sense for those to not at the very least be crossgen.
Erathix
Famiro
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July is what I've been certain about for a 2023 release. If July doesn't happen and nothing is announced I will probably have to concede defeat.
A hiring ad for "Next-Gen Console Development for a Game Company in Kyoto"
I wonder who lol.
www.adecco.co.jp
I wonder who lol.
該当のお仕事が見つかりませんでした｜アデコの派遣
Sega dreamcast 2A hiring ad for "Next-Gen Console Development for a Game Company in Kyoto"
I wonder who lol.
該当のお仕事が見つかりませんでした｜アデコの派遣
D36
#WOHOYHASAWAKENED
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The nature of leaks is pretty volatile as it is, so I wouldn't use that as some indication of whether something is happening or not. Especially if said leaks aren't verifiable. Hell, even the funcles seem dubious at times.I wish there was more smoke about an upcoming hardware reveal in general but sadly, I can't be too optimistic for this month or even July
Or Nintendo has just reached a whole new level of keeping things secret, preventing leaks from about everywhere.
If it's been something like this for quite long, I can't imagine the relief for all parties involved once they reveal it.
But I don't think even Nintendo could lock things so much for long enough, there should be much more smoke, and Jeff Grubb hearing rumblings about a Nintendo thing in July is way too few smoke to me.
Sorry for my occasional bad English!
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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- She/Her
It's all coming together.A hiring ad for "Next-Gen Console Development for a Game Company in Kyoto"
I wonder who lol.
該当のお仕事が見つかりませんでした｜アデコの派遣
Ghostsonplanets
Ghost in the Sales
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- He/Him
It does look great hahaha. Although might be due the simplistic nature of the geometry he used
Here we go! Finally some real smoke.A hiring ad for "Next-Gen Console Development for a Game Company in Kyoto"
I wonder who lol.
該当のお仕事が見つかりませんでした｜アデコの派遣
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- He/Him
Sega Dreamcast U
Apopheniac
Monolith Soft action game truther
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- he/him/his
Does Nintendo have an Osaka office? Seems strange that they'd be working on something sensitive out there
Armoured_Bear
Like Like
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- he
I’m just blowing the dust off my itshappening gif in anticipation.
Erathix
Famiro
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Personally I feel there has been plenty of smoke since the beginning of this year. It's just that what I interpret as smoke and what someone else interprets it as are two different things.
Some will think there's been absolutely nothing based on the leaks, rumours and/or sources that they trust and then some will think there's been plenty based on the same.
I feel there's been enough smoke that I can see the fire off in the distance. A lot of pieces have been falling together I feel in the last two months and at this point I'm just waiting for Nintendo to confirm and stop playing coy or outright deny and just come out with the future roadmap already.
Some will think there's been absolutely nothing based on the leaks, rumours and/or sources that they trust and then some will think there's been plenty based on the same.
I feel there's been enough smoke that I can see the fire off in the distance. A lot of pieces have been falling together I feel in the last two months and at this point I'm just waiting for Nintendo to confirm and stop playing coy or outright deny and just come out with the future roadmap already.
I've already seen some people think this is telling of the system timing it really isn'tA hiring ad for "Next-Gen Console Development for a Game Company in Kyoto"
I wonder who lol.
該当のお仕事が見つかりませんでした｜アデコの派遣
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