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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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kalosmani said:
I could see a Switch V3 coming out. Basically same body and stand as Switch OLED but with a V2 LCD panel. Would just replace a V2 Switch.
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Seems like a lot of added supply chain complexity when they could just axe the V2 and stick it out with the OLED Model. One less kind of screen to order is one less piece of complexity.
 
Concernt said:
Seems like a lot of added supply chain complexity when they could just axe the V2 and stick it out with the OLED Model. One less kind of screen to order is one less piece of complexity.
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Or a way to save production costs and make one type of switch but swap out for different screens. This way they can justify keeping OLED price the same while cutting cost of the V2. Forgot to mention can keep at at 32gb as well
 
Z-Z0 said:
Upgraded Switch hardware would be an obvious answear.
Looking from another angle, maybe they have another Labo/Ring Fit Adventure idea. Something you can add on to Switch to get additional functionality. Though, unless it was super revolutionary, it wouldn't dampen the hardware decline.
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Doesn't seem prudent to be banking on catching lightning in a bottle with some revolutionary title to keep Switch afloat. Few titles over the Switch's lifespan have had that type of impact: Animal Crossing was absolutely a situational fluke, with their own expectations for the game only being around 15 million lifetime; Ring Fit was a similarly timely release; Sequels to major 2017 titles like Odyssey and Breath of the Wild aren't going to suddenly attract unique new audiences; Lastly, Smash, Mario Kart, and similar heavy hitters aren't getting new titles anytime soon either.

I could see price cuts and a reduced priced 'selects' line for their evergreen titles having an impact this year + marketing existing Mario titles alongside the film, but that's only going to carry them so far. Relying on that strategy alone ostracizes core consumers that are already starting to neglect the platform.

I'm very excited for tomorrow's Direct. I want to see what big plans Nintendo has to transition to their next phase.
 
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kalosmani said:
Or a way to save production costs and make one type of switch but swap out for different screens. This way they can justify keeping OLED price the same while cutting cost of the V2. Forgot to mention can keep at at 32gb as well
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That's an awful lot of engineering for a niche so small and shrinking by the day. You can't just slap a "V2 screen" on an OLED Model body, OLED Model was designed with the screen, and importantly its thinness, in mind.

Re-engineering it with an LCD in mind for minimal benefit in a product that would undercut the OLED while still having the same better dock, stand, speakers and build, that is, from a business perspective, absurd.

Compared to discontinuing the V2, which would reduce supply chain complexity, require no engineering, and the cost of it is reducing the OLED Model price. Something they'll already have to do to stay competitive given wavering sales. By axing the Switch V2 and dropping the OLED Model to 300, they kill three birds with one stone. They do a price drop which is good for sales, they reduce manufacturing and supply complexity which is good for their pocket, and they get to keep the price of an entry level Switch that can actually Switch at 300 dollars. A price drop without sacrificing much revenue.
 
Paul_Subsonic said:
Introducing the DRAKE DLSS ESTIMATOR 6000 :


Drake DLSS Estimator 6000 | CALCONIC_ Calculator

Custom Drake DLSS Estimator 6000 calculator, built using CALCONIC_
www.calconic.com

This new version has some massive changes from the last one, and the results are quite different.
Significantly more accurate (probably) and significantly more optimistic than the last one.
For 4K, the new calculator indicates usually around a 35% smaller time than the old one. Reasons for that detailed in the technical section below.
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At the GPU frequency of current docked Switch, 4K DLSS time comes to slightly less than half the frametime for 60fps. So it's a bit of a simplification, but a game that would otherwise be 1080p60 could instead go for 720p->4K60. And being a quarter of the frametime for 30fps, a game that would otherwise be 1080p30 could instead opt for 900p->4K30.

Switch undocked is a lot more variable, but even for the lower mode the frametime percentages are even better than that for that 1080p screen. 👍
 
Paul_Subsonic said:
[long techincal thing snipped]
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This is all solid analysis. Unfortunately, I'm pretty dubious about a curve extracted from 4 data points. In this specific case, floor and ceiling effects could also give you a reason to see these kinds of curves.

While the core DLSS algorithm might be O(n) where n is the output resolution, in practice there are likely to be set, per frame set up costs for marshaling between your graphics APIs data structures. DLSS's and reading and writing from the various buffers for vector/color space/pixel data. In which case I would expect the 1080p results to be dominated by setup costs, which would cause a flattening at that end of the curve.

Which is not to say you're not wrong to be more optimistic for 4K on Drake, but without an external benchmark to test the predictive power of your curves outside the benchmark lines, I've got my eyes narrowed.

Side note: reach out if you want to collaborate on improving the model, or want to tinker with mine. Would love your input
 
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Vladimir said:
“The Switch business as a whole can be revitalized.”

I'm thinking he means price cuts to hardware and bringing back something like the Nintendo selects.
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That's not really revitalisation, and if he meant "Switch BRAND", well, that points to something that is Switch branded, but new.
 
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Vladimir said:
“The Switch business as a whole can be revitalized.”

I'm thinking he means price cuts to hardware and bringing back something like the Nintendo selects.
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There is no point to the Selects line at this point in time with vouchers & yearly discounts. That certainly isn’t gonna revitalize the Switch.

And, I’m very dubious of the price cuts doing the same. Since if people aren’t buying the Lite as currently priced then they aren’t buying it for cheaper. And, the OG model is getting replaced slowly anyway. OLED is about the only one that benefits from a price cut. The question becomes is it profitable per unit for Nintendo. Considering they said at OLED launch they barely made a profit it’s hard to suggest this.
 
Nintendo will post a 3 minute long Switch 2 reveal video 6 hours before this direct. The Nintendo Direct will contain all game footage from the new console that releases alongside TOTK.


In the VERY UNLIKELY event that the above doesn't happen... well it's still possible an early Switch 2 release happens H1 this here... I think a key indicator will be what's in this show. If they do a full on TOTK blow out I think it makes it less likely. If this show is lame and doesn't have much hype then that makes it more likely. but...What do they have for 40 minutes of content though? Gotta quite a few new reveals?
 


nintendo-doomed.gif

I'm being 100% facetious here.
Skittzo said:
No price cuts, only price increases.
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Mochizuki said:
Analysts and investors say Switch's rushing to end of its lifecycle at a faster-than-expected pace.
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Sheesh. Switch's EXTREMELY high performance of a year or two back now has some people panicking when its only has VERY high performance.
 
Dakhil said:

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“Earnings showed the Switch is rushing to the end of its life cycle at a faster pace than what we had anticipated,” said Kazunori Ito, an analyst at Morningstar. “Hardware strategy is a key for Nintendo in the next fiscal term, but it looks like it has no good measures for now.”

“Demand is exhausted” for the Switch, said Mark Chadwick, an analyst who publishes on Smartkarma, adding that the normalization of supply chain issues benefits rival Sony Group Corp.’s newer PlayStation 5.
 
JoshuaJSlone said:
Sheesh. Switch's EXTREMELY high performance of a year or two back now has some people panicking when its only has VERY high performance.
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To be fair, Nintendo set the expectations with overly optimistic forecast that they've then had to revise multiple times. Which, keep in mind they initially claimed they were revising due to supply chain issues, and then admitted with the most recent revision that it was due to lack of demand, which makes it seem like they weren't exactly being truthful a few months back.

So you now have a situation where both shareholder and internal expectations are not being met, due to a clear lessening of demand rather than any nebulous supply chain issue. Meanwhile the company has not indicated what their next move is, either to bolster Switch sales or to replace it with a new platform. So at the moment it would seem like the company was caught with it's pants down, and are unprepared for the current reality. Looking at the numbers we've seen so far in Q4 for Japan, I don't think it's guaranteed that they'll even hit their new revised number either, so that would be indicative of further acceleration rather than a steady decline.

Not like Wii "drop off a cliff" decline, but obviously concerning from a shareholder perspective who would be keen for Nintendo to avoid a big decrease in revenue that normally comes as they transition to a new hardware generation, which is now more pronounced as they have a single platform. All of the above is why I've been saying for a while that they will probably have to say something about future hardware at the FY briefing or leading up to it.
 
Yeah, I see this meaning nothing for Nintendo in the long term but in the short term, I see them being forced to announce the Switch 2 earlier than they wanted
 
Quailman said:
selling a switch game for $70 is a crime against humanity...there's not justifiable reason for why tears of a kingdom should suddenly be $70 unless it's a switch 2 game with massive differences in graphics and performance.
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This idea that the cost of the game should have anything whatsoever to do with its technical performance is absolutely insane.

I'm speaking as a game developer btw.
 
Quailman said:
selling a switch game for $70 is a crime against humanity...there's not justifiable reason for why tears of a kingdom should suddenly be $70 unless it's a switch 2 game with massive differences in graphics and performance.
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you're gonna be in for a culture shock once you leave america
 
Part of the reason this was sold was the jump in costs for the current (at the time ‘next’) gen development. It’s not a great look to bump the price on games for current Switch.
 
lexony said:
Price was in the american eshop/website apparently, though it shows no price at all right now. .
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It must be an error, or they meant for a switch 2 then 🤔 not confirming it

I can't imagine Nintendo suddenly increasing price for their games by $10. But we'll see tomorrow afternoon.
 
NGL the $70 kills my interest in buying these games. And with how stingy Nintendo has been with cutting or putting games on sales... I might just stick to cheaper games since I tend to enjoy smaller ones more anyways.


That said, no way are we seeing a Switch 2 announcement this direct.
 
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Let's look at the sales volume trend for switches.

March 3, 2017 - March 31, 2018
17.99 million units
April 1, 2018 - March 31, 2019
16.95 million units
April 1, 2019 - March 31, 2020
21.03 million units
April 1, 2020 - March 31, 2021
28.83 million units
April 1, 2021 - March 31, 2022
23.06 million units
April 1, 2022 - March 31, 2023
18 million expected

Sales have been declining by 5 million units per year since 2021.
If the Switch 2 comes out for the holidays next year, that could be disastrous for Nintendo's profits.
It makes sense for the Switch 2 to come out this year.
 
Brofield said:
The Canadian eShop price was $89.99 before it was changed back to null.

Sooner you accept the way new prices are gonna go, the easier the pill will be to swallow when you inevitably place that preorder
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I don’t wanna accept. But if they give me a switch 2.0 I’ll accept…
 
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Brofield said:
The Canadian eShop price was $89.99 before it was changed back to null.

Sooner you accept the way new prices are gonna go, the easier the pill will be to swallow when you inevitably place that preorder
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Would be less annoying if we could advocate for piracy
 
oldpuck said:
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This is the unfortunate reality that people don't really think about. Inflation. Everything (at least in my country anyways) is rising, everything costs more, to think that in the current landscape that even games will be unaffected is crazy. Whilst people will have their own personal value to what these games are worth, there is no reason for Nintendo to not follow suit the same way that Microsoft and Sony have already done in regards to their pricing.

Nintendo was always going to do the same and given current inflation, it's definitely time. I don't suspect this has anything to do with a new console (though with Switch at the end of its life, setting the expectation now what all future exclusives are going to cost for Switch 2 is not out of the question) but more to do with pricing and inflationary pressures fast-tracking what they were always inevitably going to do anyways.
 
I could accept the $70 game prices if this were for the successor, but for Switch? As it is, Nintendo doesn't discount their games nearly as fast or hard as the competition, and with games like BotW and Pokemon hitting it out of the park, they are making a lot of money from it. They could hold off on the $70 price tag for the successor easily, even with current inflation situation.
 
It's extremely unlikely, but I'd love the absolute insanity that would arise from Nintendo revealing a Switch successor for release alongside Tears of the Kingdom.

Just imagine, Nintendo pushed fake delay leaks out to everyone, Q2 2023 release was always planned. $70 is the new price of upcoming high end Switch games that come with the catch that they come bundled with next gen upgrade. They do this in hopes with the incentive that when people upgrade, they already have a library of new games ready.

It'd just be perfect for me, and that's exactly why it's not going to happen.
 
Discostew said:
I could accept the $70 game prices if this were for the successor, but for Switch? As it is, Nintendo doesn't discount their games nearly as fast or hard as the competition, and with games like BotW and Pokemon hitting it out of the park, they are making a lot of money from it. They could hold off on the $70 price tag for the successor easily, even with current inflation situation.
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eh Sony are really sticking to evergreen full price so far on PS5 including 1-1 PS3 remakes like TLOU Pt 1, games go on sale but return quickly to full price... but BOTW was already $10 more expensive than every other Switch game here so... maybe its just being passed onto the US as well this time.
 
aus89 said:
eh Sony are really sticking to evergreen full price so far on PS5 including 1-1 PS3 remakes like TLOU Pt 1, games go on sale but return quickly to full price... but BOTW was already $10 more expensive than every other Switch game here so... maybe its just being passed onto the US as well this time.
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Second this and the discounts Sony push out these days are similar to eShop sales now. They used to have far more competitive sales with deeper discounts on their exclusives, it's something I loved about Playstation and would assist me with scooping up all the games that came out in a given year that I wanted to play.

Sony ever since PS5 however have done the same model as Nintendo have done. No more than 30% off their major exclusives, very rarely does it fall below that. I've watched last year's releases for a while now and the discounts have been the same on the storefront each time.

I think they see how the competition fares and now believe it's only fair they follow suit. Only Microsoft does deep discounts now (their exclusives tend to fall in price harder and faster, given their position with Game Pass, they most likely don't care as much whilst for Sony and Nintendo it's their primary source of revenue, exclusives sell their consoles and rake in their money. They don't wish to discount them anymore than they think is necessary to maximise costs.)
 
Boxle said:
It's extremely unlikely, but I'd love the absolute insanity that would arise from Nintendo revealing a Switch successor for release alongside Tears of the Kingdom.

Just imagine, Nintendo pushed fake delay leaks out to everyone, Q2 2023 release was always planned. $70 is the new price of upcoming high end Switch games that come with the catch that they come bundled with next gen upgrade. They do this in hopes with the incentive that when people upgrade, they already have a library of new games ready.

It'd just be perfect for me, and that's exactly why it's not going to happen.
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Let me change that last part for you,

"...and that's exactly why it IS going to happen."

There you go, much hopium...just taking in all the hopium.
 
Erathix said:
Second this and the discounts Sony push out these days are similar to eShop sales now. They used to have far more competitive sales with deeper discounts on their exclusives, it's something I loved about Playstation and would assist me with scooping up all the games that came out in a given year that I wanted to play.

Sony ever since PS5 however have done the same model as Nintendo have done. No more than 30% off their major exclusives, very rarely does it fall below that. I've watched last year's releases for a while now and the discounts have been the same on the storefront each time.

I think they see how the competition fares and now believe it's only fair they follow suit. Only Microsoft does deep discounts now (their exclusives tend to fall in price harder and faster, given their position with Game Pass, they most likely don't care as much whilst for Sony and Nintendo it's their primary source of revenue, exclusives sell their consoles and rake in their money. They don't wish to discount them anymore than they think is necessary to maximise costs.)
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I imagine Microsoft exclusives being generally a lower quality than Sony and Nintendo exclusives helps with the whole going down quickly thing
 
To be fair, $70 TOTK could be due to a bigger and/or faster cart. 32Mb games sold for $70 or more in the SNES days, maybe this one is 32-64GB. Do we have other examples of a higher price due to the cart size?
 
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