Quite frankly, even if we consider the possibility that hardware would be out say… 1.5-2 years out from its dev kit leak, we haven’t seen spec leaks from developers…. so with that in mind, due to the fact that we haven’t seen any specifications leaks of hardware yet, does that now mean that the next Nintendo switch model is actually slated for 2025/2026? At some point we have to be a bit more selective in how we interpret information because we can end up coming to the wrong conclusion based on precedents of companies that have no correlation to the other company’s hardware plans.
And I’m being serious, we haven’t seen any leaks from developers about clock frequencies or cache sizes or CPU or memory, or other aspects of the hardware, so does that mean that the hardware is still very far out, and people are expecting 2024 without anything actually giving them 2024? and it could actually be 2025 or 2026 for all we know?
Based on Switch spec leaks timing, those would come out late February for Drake (~Feb 27th).
We have hard data and a few rumors pointing to a May launch this year. I think one assumption many are making is that there will be third party exclusives at launch. Nintendo will sell Drake on TotK alone for at least a month or the rest of May. If Nintendo isn't telling third parties to expect
their launch until mid/late June or H2 (Q3+), their games could start arriving in July. And if Nintendo isn't launching with any exclusives of their own, how would any insiders know the exact launch date.
Remember, no one in the industry knew the exact launch date of botw OR the Switch until the Jan 12 presentation.
Except for that amiibo date leak (which was hard data) that nobody believed at the time.
This to me is evidence that most, if not all third parties, have no idea of that exact launch date of new hardware. Recall LKD and several other insiders claiming that BOTW was going to be a staggered launch and not make the EU launch. There was still uncertainty on what the launch day was and this was
a month and a half before launch. Why are we expecting concrete launch timing to leak for Drake 4.5 months before launch? Like I've been saying, sure we haven't had hard leaks on launch timing, but
we also have had no hard de-confirmations either.
And I find that to likely due to the fact that Nintendo has probably told devs "Q2 with a small chance of Q3; we'll update you after the holidays next year in January". Especially if manufacturing hasn't started yet. Who, but the top of the top execs on the HW side or Furukawa, would know? Think about it. We've been told from MZ "late 2022 at the earliest, likely later". We've heard from various devs through Nate "late 2022-Q1 2023". Now would Q2 be
that big of a delay?
Devs have clearly not heard that 2023 (Q2 or Q3) is off the table. Until then, I am going to stick with the hard data (which has never failed us btw) that is pointing towards a launch with Zelda in May.