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Do release windows ever leak prior to announcement? For hardware?
It's very possible that most studios simply don't know when it's releasing, most games are said to be cross gen anyway.
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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
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It's very possible that most studios simply don't know when it's releasing, most games are said to be cross gen anyway.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Manakete
Release windows tend not to leak prior to announcement because hardware is usually announced 8+ months in advance
The lack of announcement and total lack of leaks saying this is coming soon mean it's not coming within the next 6 months.
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Fwiw I agree, I just don't think we can count it out for sure yet.
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The original was announced early because of Wii U's failure. This system is being released in the midst of Nintendo's biggest success, they don't need to announce it months in advance.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Manakete
I mean, the PS4 was an incredibly successful system and the PS5 was still announced in October 2019 for a release in holiday 2020.
This is despite Sony trying to sell PS4s in holiday 2019 and despite the PS5 announcement and promotion somewhat getting in the way of marketing of TLOU2 and Ghost of Tsushima and Final Fantasy 7 Remake.
Kevin
Chain Chomp
I won't rule out new hardware until Nintendo shows off Zelda and announced that TOTK OLED bundle officially. While I'm not optimistic about new hardware this year I also don't believe there is any reason to rule it out entirely. A part of me wonders if that TOTK OLED bundle leak is a misdirection going into the next year. A part of me wants to believe that launching new hardware alongside Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom just makes a whole lot of sense. A big part of me believes that Pikmin 4 could also really benefit from 4K with Shigeru Miyamoto himself mentioning wanting to make a 4K Pikmin title. A 4K Switch always made sense for me in 2023 and I won't rule it out until stuff starts to happen this year such as the General Direct, Zelda blowout, seeing if that TOTK bundle is real, etc. Way to many incredible fakes out there for me to be entirely sold on that thing being real.
If Zelda comes and goes and we are still using the same hardware then I'll accept it and live with it. Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom would look glorious in 4K but I'm sure there would also be a remaster or some kind of upgrade path later on when new hardware does eventually become available and I could always replay it then. I am also curious as to what we will get in terms of a Mario title this year. I would be very very surprised if there isn't at least another Mario port or collection to launch alongside the movie or a new 2D Mario. I feel the next 3D Mario is still aways off for the time being.
If Zelda comes and goes and we are still using the same hardware then I'll accept it and live with it. Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom would look glorious in 4K but I'm sure there would also be a remaster or some kind of upgrade path later on when new hardware does eventually become available and I could always replay it then. I am also curious as to what we will get in terms of a Mario title this year. I would be very very surprised if there isn't at least another Mario port or collection to launch alongside the movie or a new 2D Mario. I feel the next 3D Mario is still aways off for the time being.
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How many developers have it and were supposedly told to prep games for it remains one of the largest issues for me.
I get it, devices can be cancelled, but such a move wouldn’t be taken very lightly, and I assume it certainly wouldn’t happen after development kits were well propagated, right? It feels like N pulling the rug out from under their partners - in what scenario would that makes sense? Would Nintendo distribute kits for developers to just experiment on for two years? But that doesn’t really line up with the idea that they should be ‘prepping games to release in early 2023’
More than anything at this stage I hope we get more clarity on the timeline, because it feels like a messy game of telephone and wire crossing right now. Given the nature of much of this being rumors/leaks tho I’m not holding my breath. We could just as well see May 2023 pass by without a peep.
Mango
Eltit Motsuc
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Nintendo as a company would likely want as many people as possible who bought the Switch to buy a Switch 2, meaning it would behoove them to give this next console as much exposure to said audience as possible prior to release to saturate the public sphere with the knowledge of said console. Moreover you want to actually give your audience time to prepare and save money to buy said console.
A game is $60, that's easy to save up in a months time. A new $300-$400 console, is not. Again it's not actually impossible, it still could happen, but we're sitting at almost four months flat right now, with zero from Nintendo themselves that anything is coming.
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Just how many are you expecting them to produce for launch?
Considering just how quickly launch consoles sell out every generation and remain sold out, I’m not really sure they need to be worried about giving Switch 2 a massive runway. * OLED models, despite being a very limited upgrade, were selling out super quick in the first half year, and that’s with only a couple months between announcement and release.
Again, I’m no longer sold on 2023, but I don’t think any of the reasons thrown about here for why it won’t happen are even close to bullet proof.
* Edit: Add to this the recent trend for long cross-generation periods, and I don’t think precedent from previous decades is quite as relevant. The hardware availability we saw from 2020-2022 with XSX/PS5 just shows how marketing for a mass exodus to new hardware probably isn’t the wisest move anyway.
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ItWasMeantToBe19
Manakete
I just think it's weird to expect a completely unprecedented reveal strategy and leak containment for the Switch 2 relative to the history of new game consoles.
We'll probably know about when this thing is launching and what it is launching with a decent bit before it comes out.
We'll probably know about when this thing is launching and what it is launching with a decent bit before it comes out.
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Again, we do already know a shitload about this thing, much more than we've ever known for an unannounced console I'd wager.
mariodk18
Install Base Forum Namer
Based on Switch spec leaks timing, those would come out late February for Drake (~Feb 27th).
We have hard data and a few rumors pointing to a May launch this year. I think one assumption many are making is that there will be third party exclusives at launch. Nintendo will sell Drake on TotK alone for at least a month or the rest of May. If Nintendo isn't telling third parties to expect their launch until mid/late June or H2 (Q3+), their games could start arriving in July. And if Nintendo isn't launching with any exclusives of their own, how would any insiders know the exact launch date.
Remember, no one in the industry knew the exact launch date of botw OR the Switch until the Jan 12 presentation. Except for that amiibo date leak (which was hard data) that nobody believed at the time.
This to me is evidence that most, if not all third parties, have no idea of that exact launch date of new hardware. Recall LKD and several other insiders claiming that BOTW was going to be a staggered launch and not make the EU launch. There was still uncertainty on what the launch day was and this was a month and a half before launch. Why are we expecting concrete launch timing to leak for Drake 4.5 months before launch? Like I've been saying, sure we haven't had hard leaks on launch timing, but we also have had no hard de-confirmations either.
And I find that to likely due to the fact that Nintendo has probably told devs "Q2 with a small chance of Q3; we'll update you after the holidays next year in January". Especially if manufacturing hasn't started yet. Who, but the top of the top execs on the HW side or Furukawa, would know? Think about it. We've been told from MZ "late 2022 at the earliest, likely later". We've heard from various devs through Nate "late 2022-Q1 2023". Now would Q2 be that big of a delay?
Devs have clearly not heard that 2023 (Q2 or Q3) is off the table. Until then, I am going to stick with the hard data (which has never failed us btw) that is pointing towards a launch with Zelda in May.
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ItWasMeantToBe19
Manakete
Yeah, but we don't even know the name, lol.
Managing to keep even the name completely silent a couple months before release... I'm very doubtful. That's before getting to the clocks, the memory, the price, etc.
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I thought they had already cut PS4 production by late 2019 to free up room for PS5 production. Or was that later?
A console's name NEVER leaks before announcement, what are you talking about? I honestly can't remember that happening once.
mariodk18
Install Base Forum Namer
The name of the Switch didn't leak at all before the Oct 20, 2016 reveal.
Kevin
Chain Chomp
I do think it's a very distinct possibility we won't know about the Switch 2 or whatever it's going to be until Nintendo actually unveils it. They are one of the best companies at keeping things secret. I won't rule anything out.
I'm hoping that Nate does a podcast in January that maybe clears up some of the confusion and he can address maybe when he thinks new hardware could be coming or what we fans can expect in the coming months.
I'm hoping that Nate does a podcast in January that maybe clears up some of the confusion and he can address maybe when he thinks new hardware could be coming or what we fans can expect in the coming months.
Instro
Like Like
My assumption would be that a launch with Zelda is off the table, but the company will start to talk hardware at the end of the FY.
Now of course it's a different time these days. A lot of Nintendo leakers have stopped giving/getting info, and/or have gotten blown up along the way from bad leaks. Remember when Laura Kate Dale was super prolific during the run up to the Switch? So maybe things are just really clamped down, but at the same time it's hard to believe things would be this silent. We'll know soon either way I guess.
There were some software leaks in 2016. Some turned out to be incorrect, but there was a fair amount of accurate stuff out there. Mario Kart 8, Splatoon, and Mario+Rabbids we're all rumored back then among other things.
Now of course it's a different time these days. A lot of Nintendo leakers have stopped giving/getting info, and/or have gotten blown up along the way from bad leaks. Remember when Laura Kate Dale was super prolific during the run up to the Switch? So maybe things are just really clamped down, but at the same time it's hard to believe things would be this silent. We'll know soon either way I guess.
Kevin
Chain Chomp
Yes I believe so.
mariodk18
Install Base Forum Namer
We know about RDR2 and (likely) Star Wars Hunters for Drake.
Dark Cloud
Warpstar Knight
Nate will have his video out this week.
Did he announce it?
History of whose new game consoles though? If there's one thing Nintendo is known for is doing things their own way. But, going simply by 5-6 month difference, one would think we'd have had a reveal of the Switch 2 by now if it was meant for a simultaneous release of TotK. However that would have put it right into the holiday season. A time where the Switch is still selling gangbusters. Would it really make much sense to reveal it during (or even within reach of) the holidays and screw with Switch's sales estimates? When Switch was revealed, Wii U was practically dead and 3DS wasn't doing so hot, so it wasn't like they had much to lose. This time, they had plenty to lose.
NateDrake
Chain Chomp
That's still TBD. Have to work on scheduling a time & day for the recording to take place.
ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
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That’s what happens when you sign up for Tier 2 Ray Tracing from a GPU maker that seemingly has no real interest with regards to Ray Tracing.
Nvidia is like Tier 3-4 as of current time. Even with Turing.
Its still as good as it would have been with a Nvidia GPU.
Neither Sony nor MS can invest in a high RT performance without sacrificing something else or budget!
mariodk18
Install Base Forum Namer
Hope you're having a good New Year's. Hope you decide to stick around on FB. It's clear you have sources and have had them for a long time. If I have a suggestion, maybe only unveil HW details in your podcast? Not to make excuses for certain behavior the past week, but I think the 1.25 year silence from the industry at large after the "11 devs" MZ article (outside of the NVN2/linux leaks) and the DF podcast comments right before the end of the year was like pouring gasoline onto smoldering coals.
I honestly think even if you had tried some ol' fashioned "reassurance" most people would have lashed out regardless. It was just a lot of emotion to wade through and assuage (HW confirmation or no). Personally, I've been waiting 1.25 years, so I can wait another month or so.
ezidro3
Boo
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Assuming the Zelda OLED is real, it'll probably launch on April 28th, 2 weeks before the game launches since that's the exact same timeframe that the Splatoon 3 and Pokemon S&V OLED models released before their games.
Would Nintendo really launch an OLED and a brand new generation 2 weeks from each other? That would be kinda odd. The closest timeframes I could find was when the Pokemon S&M New 3DS XL launched in November 2016, 4 months before the Switch and 1 month after its reveal, The Last Of Us Part II PS4 Pro that launched in June 2020, 5 months before the PS5 and the same month as its reveal, and the Metroid: Samus Returns New 3DS XL that launched in September 2017, 6 months after the Switch.
This is what gives me the most skepticism for a H1 2023 launch
Would Nintendo really launch an OLED and a brand new generation 2 weeks from each other? That would be kinda odd. The closest timeframes I could find was when the Pokemon S&M New 3DS XL launched in November 2016, 4 months before the Switch and 1 month after its reveal, The Last Of Us Part II PS4 Pro that launched in June 2020, 5 months before the PS5 and the same month as its reveal, and the Metroid: Samus Returns New 3DS XL that launched in September 2017, 6 months after the Switch.
This is what gives me the most skepticism for a H1 2023 launch
You got collectors and scalpers that will be looking into both, and regular joes like you and I for the successor. Separate releases or simultaneous, those devices are going to sell out regardless.
Kazuyamishima
Moblin
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Why are so many people convinced that Drake/switch 2 will run at 4k? I get that it will have DLSS sure but I doubt that's enough. We should probably temper our expectations (imo) my 3050 with DLSS can't really run any game at 4k with low settings at 1080p upscaled to 4k and it draws around 90W iirc
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As with any console these days it will obviously depend on the game itself in question but there's reason to believe Nintendo went for a 6x increase in GPU size to allow developers to hit 4k more easily. Like, what other reason is there for such a huge increase?
Kevin
Chain Chomp
For me personally, there were several 4K screenshots of Nintendo games found on Nintendo's server including from Hyrule Warrior's: Age of Calamity which is arguably one of the most taxing Switch games on the system. These screenshots appeared around the time the Switch Pro was originally rumored to come out (we don't have an exact date but an estimate) I don't think every single game would run at 4K as not every single PS5/XSX game does but I do think many Nintendo published games would strive to hit 4K.
Because most tvs don't support resolutions in between 1080p and 2160p. 1440p after dlss and then spatial scale to 2160p will be the norm I think
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In my case it’s because Bloombergs reporting specifically noted 4K several times. I’m setting my expectations to be Switch quality games would hit 4K, not every game. TotK running at 4K doesn’t sound like a wild assumption at all.
More ambitious third party games might aim for something much lower.
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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Animal Crossing New Horizon press shots were in 5K lol
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Nintendo has put out tons of bullshots over the past decade or two, this is nothing new and means nothing in regards to a new console or pro.
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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I think, given what we saw from the clocks and power consumption they were testing, 4K after DLSS will the standard, with 1440p for VERY demanding titles. Remember that DLSS can do 4K from 720p in Ultra mode, which would give almost any game more than enough headroom. Most will probably be 1080p(dynamic) internal resolution to 4K.
Plus cross-gen titles that don't use the extra power for anything except resolution, like say, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, could brute force 4K, or use 1440p render and 4K output.
I have no doubt the image quality will not be a concern with Drake so much as framerate is.
Kazuyamishima
Moblin
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Fwiw I hope it's 4k but if Drake is supposed to be around PS4 levels of performance even with DLSS it seems like a stretch but I hope I am entirely wrong
Dark Cloud
Warpstar Knight
Oh ok
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Depending on the clocks it's more like PS4 pro before DLSS. Not in terms of pure floppage but more like effective performance with supporting modern architecture and Nvidia chips tending to be better per flop.
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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Well, a modern architecture, so more like Xbox Series S before DLSS.
Serif
𝕽𝖊𝖓𝖊𝖌𝖆𝖉𝖊 𝕬𝖓𝖌𝖊𝖑
By 'any game', I assume you mean recent, DLSS supported, relatively demanding PC titles. Switch titles are less demanding and can even be emulated at higher resolutions on a 3050, which is far from optimized. Games that already run 1080p on Switch I can easily see running at 4K with DLSS, maybe even without depending on the game.
Kazuyamishima
Moblin
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I should have worded it differently that's my b the only games I've tried were quake rtx and Fortnite
Kazuyamishima
Moblin
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Also I could be wrong but iirc the switch emulators are more CPU dependent
Kevin
Chain Chomp
Perhaps those screenshots didn't mean much but I do have a feeling Nintendo would try to target 4K with many of their first party titles on a new Switch as to really stress that 4K is a possibility on the new hardware. They will also focus on whatever new hook the new system may have. Just my speculation of course. I think 4K for first party titles is something that I personally believe will be the target. Maybe 2K if a game really pushes the graphics envelope or a 2K/60FPS game is a possibility. I know not everything will be 4K of course. Still Age of Calamity sure did look nice in 4K.
while you can start lower, a higher output incurs a higher cost regardless of your starting resolution. 720p > 1440p is cheaper than 720p > 2160p
Honestly, one thing I'm excited about regarding the Drake with "RTX" capabilities is that various devs may start taking those features seriously and utilize them. On PC, games utilizing RTX features are growing, but on a small scale because most PC configurations don't have an RTX card to give devs reason to utilize them. With Drake, EVERY Switch 2 unit has those features.
ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
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Most certainly not. NVidia GPUs and Intel GPUs perform a lot better than the RDNA2 based GPUs with respect to Ray Tracing. RDNA2 being below Turing wrt RT. And the consoles are below even the Desktop RDNA2, omitting something like that cache for their RT.
Sure RT is scalable, but RT in the consoles isn’t really much to use for a comparison point when they are literally bottom of the barrel here.
They are the ones who fund the R&D efforts for AMD for consumer GPUs at this point, so AMD is following by what their customers are funding them to do. It’s certainly not Desktop which makes less than their other segments.
Reminder that AMD managed to sell +160M APUs based on their architecture and IP for 7 years in the console space.
And will sell another +150M in the console space.
That depends on a lot of factors here that I feel like are missing.
Concernt
Optimism is non-negotiable
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True, but per the tests we've seen on PC, 720p to 4K gives you a lot more headroom than 1080p to 4K, but doesn't scale perfectly (like you're not doubling your performance by halving your input pixels with DLSS, at least not perfectly).
Still, I think the cases where a game is struggling to do 720p to 4K with DLSS and opts for 1440p output will be relatively rare.
And of course there's always more upscaling that can be done after 1440p.
No matter how it's sliced, Drake seems to be built to be an image quality first machine, and I have confidence it will achieve that.
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