StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

[Sol]

The GameCube was the n64 but better. Flopped.

The WiiU was the Wii but better. Flopped.

The 3DS was the DS but better. Almost flopped. Saved by a huge price cut. Its core feature became an afterthought that even Nintendo stopped using late in its life.

I can understand why they are nervous. A Switch but better isn’t a guaranteed sell if we go by Nintendo’s history with doing such things.

Maybe they realized that people wouldn’t necessarily enthusiastically upgrade via their market research. Perhaps the Drake SOC is still used for a successor, but that successor might have to more of a hook than “Switch but better.”

My read on the situation is that Nintendo wants to ensure the “Switch 2” performs as well as the 3DS did in comparison to the DS, and they also want to make damn sure it doesn’t have a launch as rough as the 3DS.

I really do wonder how much the naming of these consoles has hurt their potential sales. Wii U and 3DS don't indicate any kind of progression from the previous console. Just a relation, which may in fact have some kind of inhibitory effect on sales as people may not perceive that they need the console given they have a closely related system.

Why has Sony been so successful over the years? I think part of it is the simplicity of the naming. Playstation 2. Simple, clear naming. The fact that it's a successor to the original Playstation was inherent in the name. Then 3, 4, now 5, etc. IMO Nintendo needs to adopt this kind of naming scheme going forward.

 

[Lancelot]

I don't think it's a good idea to compare Switch "2" with GC, WiiU or 3DS.
The situation that Nintendo finds itself in at the moment is different.
In GC, although they don't like to admit it, Nintendo had already failed with the N64, 3x less sales than a newcomer in the market, and in Japan it was almost behind the Saturn. Not only that, but despite the GC being a great console, good controller, powerful, and even a cool name and start animation, it doesn't change the fact that for the mindset at the time the PS2 was much cooler and had all the hype.
WiiU had a bad name, and it arrived VERY late, all the hype of the Wii had already passed and the console was already treated like a toy, the casual public had already dissipated to smartphones, and it was very expensive for the hardware it presented, the CPU was even weaker than that of the X360.
3DS even got some things right, and even for that reason it wasn't a failure like the others, but it had a ginmick that few were interested in, and although it really was a more powerful DS, you can't say that it had good hardware for the time .
I think that in the end it all boils down to hype, how much you can make your console look cool to the masses, in that sense the Switch was a Nintendo masterclass, even though it had several points inferior to the competitors, it still managed to sell itself for the proposal and recently passed PS4 sales.

Well, the thing is that the hardware is honestly a real beast this time, never seen again since the GC. Despite being a handheld system and all, it's very likely to beat Series S (the budget home console) in real world scenarios when docked. I think you all have talked quite a lot about the virtues of the SoC but... Does someone even wonder if they can realistically squeeze it anytime soon? The EPD teams may be good, but they've been used to potato consoles for way too long. Unlike the last three consoles from Nintendo, Drake is just a power jump with no gimmicks that could be realistically attached to it.

What does this mean? They have to work hard in order to tells us why they needed this massive jump, and show us if they can even make 1st party exclusives on par with Sony's best efforts on the PS4, right out of the gate.

 

[Look over there]

Maybe this was already discussed and/or might come across as a really stupid question but, please bear with me. Could the next Nintendo device be streaming-only?

Obviously, there has been a lot of discussion about industry insiders tidbits, leaks and ultimately how Drake - or rather T239 - could fit the bill for a new power-efficient Nintendo handheld. But what if we were wrong all along and that T239 was never supposed to be the foundation of a end-user device but rather the heart of a server appliance for a new streaming platform that would be able to run both old and new Switch games natively?

Is there any credibility to that?

It doesn't contradict the need for devkits as developers would still have to build games for the platform. It also means that the chip wouldn't have to be produced in the tens of millions as it would only be required to power a few thousand servers across the world. That does seem a bit non-sensical considering cost-efficiency but maybe Nvidia has other plans for the chip. On the other hand it could explain the lack of evidence on the actual production of the chip, since it's would be much lower scale and much more confidential than an end-user device. It also opens the door to a much larger and power-hungry chip than expected. It doesn't refute rumors about a 1080p screen for the actual streaming client device.

As for Nintendo, that would come with all the usual streaming incentives. Subscription model, complete ownership of the software, skipping retail channels, high-margins on a dumb streaming console.

Obviously, that would be the real monkey paw. The worst-case scenario as far as I'm concerned. So does that sound completely out of the question?

So, when we say that Drake is large, that's relative to our expectations for a mobile device. But it is still barely within mobile device range. Drake's GPU is still smaller than all of the consumer RTX 30 cards (both desktop and laptop). Conversely, as far as I casually looked up just now, Geforce NOW servers use big GPUs (their die sizes are larger than consumer discrete cards).
Other aspects of the design also point towards it being end-user and mobile. 1 cluster of 8 ARM Cortex-A CPU* cores is mobile end-user territory. Same with the RAM; 128-bit LPDDR5 to handle both CPU and GPU needs feels intended for one user. You'd need a lot more bandwidth and quantity to service more users with one device.

*...was it ever explicitly stated that Drake uses a ARM Cortex-A core, or did we all just default to assuming that because the converse is too silly to even remotely consider?

...getting further off the track here, but speaking of a hypothetical servers handling multiple users at once scenario, what kind of hardware would we be looking at, anyway? How much can Grace + RTX 3090 TI or 4090 handle? Would we be looking at mainframes?

 

[ILikeFeet]

*...was it ever explicitly stated that Drake uses a ARM Cortex-A core, or did we all just default to assuming that because the converse is too silly to even remotely consider?

the latter. there aren't any only likely options. Orin already uses the A78, newer cores are too new and don't even bring much improvement, X-series throw size and power consumption by the wayside for performance.

 

[antonz]

Mini-Discs and the arrival of DVD doomed the GameCube. Minidisc was going cartridge all over again. Meanwhile DVD hit the scene and Sony was like yo not only do you get to play games. It's a cheap DVD player!

Any nervousness Nintendo has about the next gen is tied to a 1 hardware line future. They don't have a GBA or DS family to save them if the console flops this time.

 

[karmitt]

The GameCube was the n64 but better. Flopped.

The WiiU was the Wii but better. Flopped.

The 3DS was the DS but better. Almost flopped. Saved by a huge price cut. Its core feature became an afterthought that even Nintendo stopped using late in its life.

I can understand why they are nervous. A Switch but better isn’t a guaranteed sell if we go by Nintendo’s history with doing such things.

Maybe they realized that people wouldn’t necessarily enthusiastically upgrade via their market research. Perhaps the Drake SOC is still used for a successor, but that successor might have to more of a hook than “Switch but better.”

My read on the situation is that Nintendo wants to ensure the “Switch 2” performs as well as the 3DS did in comparison to the DS, and they also want to make damn sure it doesn’t have a launch as rough as the 3DS.

Putting aside that I strongly disagree that the Wii to Wii U was a sensible execution of ‘the same but better’, using it as a comparison to a hypothetical Switch’s transition is a major oversimplification of their relative positions in the market.

Nintendo has, arguably for the first time in decades, created a device that resonates with the a massive chunk of the broader core audience, Nintendo fans or otherwise. Wii was called a Wii Sports machine for good reason - it forewent the core audience in favor of chasing the blue ocean, hoping to catch that casual-focused lightning in a bottle repeatedly, and overall they suffered for that choice. Switch on the other hand is seeing very typical gaming experiences as it’s best sellers, and they are all smashing records in their respective franchises.

Nintendo remains fortunate enough to be uncontested in their hybrid offering, and so long as they can remain in arm’s reach of whatever content is being released elsewhere from a technical standpoint, they can hold this position at least another generation I’d think. They are 130M (?) units strong now, and are only just seeing their perception as a solid piece of tech start to erode. From what we know (or what this thread has told me), the tech on offer from Nvidia’s T239 certainly sounded like it would meet or even exceed that ‘arm’s reach’ requirement for current gen.

So when I say it’s so obvious it’s painful, I’m not looking at Wii to Wii U. The Wii isn’t the Switch, even if lifetime hardware sales aren’t far off. Sony has managed to increment their number and keep pace with technology to much success, and it wouldn’t hurt Nintendo to do that for once. Improve the performance, fix common grievances, ensure it’s backwards compatible, and don’t funk up the marketing.

 

[ILikeFeet]

some of their "same but better" systems were also their most iconic: NES > SNES, GB > GBC > GBA.

IMO, DS > 3DS was also a "same but better", but marred by the lack of worthwhile titles and the failed bet of 3D really taking off

Switch, but better, should fall in the former category provided launch day has a slew of good titles. TotK would be a good start, but I think third parties will be providing the meat of exclusives. for Nintendo's cross-gen games, I don't think leveraging "4K" and "60fps" is a poor idea. there's plenty of enthusiasts who'd jump in for 4K/60 nintendo games

 

[Smash Kirby]

#NintendoOnPC2024

/s

In a more serious note, I am curious to see what Nintendo is planning hardware and software wise this year. With the details on the NVidia T239 is actually for Nintendo. Supposedly, it is but NVidia has worked with MS before, and MS is trying to get into the ARM market with Windows on ARM. MS has used Tegra chipsets from the Zune HD to the Surface 1 and 2 running Windows RT. If the DLSS will be enabled on both handheld and docked, I wonder how that will affect emulation if the games expect the DLSS hardware. I know there are some translation layers that can pretend but they aren't perfect.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

This is their first HD console that isn't a total flop. Except for the Wii U, every HD console had a life cycle of at least 7 years (with the Xbox 360 having a whopping 8 years). HD development has significantly lengthier cycles than SD development. Nintendo isn't gonna rush out a successor because of an arbitrary year count.

There’s nothing to rush here. HD development isn’t new. The scope of the games that will happen to touch Drake, already has been done in the industry. For almost a decade now.

The 360 and PS3 had a slower start, and a while to end.

PS4 and XBox One had a slower start, and a while to end.

And their timing is matched with each other for competitive reasons, the recent filing about when they foresee the next platforms from the ABK x MS merger showed as much. Hell, they are targeting after 2027. Will the goalpost move to now “console generations are 8 years long”?




Nintendo tapped out of that competition ages ago, so they aren’t beholden to getting a console at the same date, and nor are they doing anything new in scope that wasn’t already done. They are riding the tails of those that are pushing the industry forward and already had years under their belt


If they release it “late” or “early” as it’s been dubbed, it’s because they coasted or because they chose to.

not saying that this is releasing next year here, but people keep saying they’ll be too early or risk being too early.

But I’m only going to say this and it’s gonna be a funny thing when noticed: there’s never really been a detriment to releasing a new console too early from a competent player. The idea that something is too “early” hasn’t had credence.

 

[Serif]

...getting further off the track here, but speaking of a hypothetical servers handling multiple users at once scenario, what kind of hardware would we be looking at, anyway? How much can Grace + RTX 3090 TI or 4090 handle? Would we be looking at mainframes?

Fun question! I think such a cluster would be suitable for a supercomputer / data center but mainframes specifically, I don't think so. Mainframes (specifically the dominant IBM Z kind) run on an s390x architecture which is neither ARM nor x86, so that incompatibility is the first hurdle. I also think the CPU would be too different, mainframes rely on a lot of virtualization (running multiple operating systems) for maximum uptime and running a lot of transactional workloads (like credit card swipes) so the CPU is specifically designed with virtualization and parallelism in mind, whereas for Nvidia it's the GPU that handles the parallelism. Mainframes that do use AI acceleration like the z16, while I think they support GPUs through PCiE, actually have a dedicated application-specific integrated circuits (ASIC) that performed AI acceleration supposedly faster than a GPU, because mainframe software mostly doesn't need to use a display driver so there's no point of the 'graphics' part of a GPU, so skip the GPU entirely.

- sorry, I interpreted you too literally. This happens to be the field I work in and your question caught my eye (also I'm new to the field so my explanations probably suck, this is a test of my own knowledge). You could probably use it like a mainframe but I don't think it'd be the best use for it. I think they even market Grace for compute-intensive workloads which doesn't line up with the purpose of a mainframe, which are more about rapid input/output processing.

 

[ShadowFox08]

RAM bandwidth is only an issue if they end up targetting native 1080p and beyond with demanding software, later down the line. Given how they handled the Switch already, Nintendo is perfectly willing to slap in the equivalent to DLSS Performance presets as long as it runs the port, internal 540p is unlikely to saturate that. The CPU in the other hand... When clocked decently, it has comparable IPC to the Ryzen CPUs on the consoles so, I think it'll hold up well.

Its hard to say about the RAM, since we have yet to test it. It's probably not gonna be a big of a bottleneck as Switch was. There's definitely gonna be some more efficient hardware and the increased cache should help migate the bottlneck. And DLSS should help too. I think we'll be fine with Switch level and maybe xbone level games reaching 4K (the latter with DLSS) I dunno about PS4 level games reaching 4k with DLSS. I don't know the nuance requirements.

The A57s are comparable to the last gen jaguars per Hz as well for single core processing. Nintendo will likely have 8 cores this time instead of 4, and will dedicate 6-7 cores for gaming. That should help a lol, but it's important to note that Jaguars were clocked at 1.6Ghz, while current gen is at 3.5Ghz minimum. So Nintendo can't pull a 1 GHz on CPU, or we'll end up with the same power discrepancy as switch vs ps4. I'm hoping they shoot for at least 1.5 GHz, so it will close the CPU gap to a little over 2x for single core. AMD has always been superior in multi thread computations though.

Well, the thing is that the hardware is honestly a real beast this time, never seen again since the GC. Despite being a handheld system and all, it's very likely to beat Series S (the budget home console) in real world scenarios when docked. I think you all have talked quite a lot about the virtues of the SoC but... Does someone even wonder if they can realistically squeeze it anytime soon? The EPD teams may be good, but they've been used to potato consoles for way too long. Unlike the last three consoles from Nintendo, Drake is just a power jump with no gimmicks that could be realistically attached to it.

What does this mean? They have to work hard in order to tells us why they needed this massive jump, and show us if they can even make 1st party exclusives on par with Sony's best efforts on the PS4, right out of the gate.

With DLSS from a graphics perspective, maybe. But not for CPU extensive games.

I'm not too optimistic on Drake reaching 4 tflops on docked, even if we get 4nm tsmc. But it's looking like Samsung is a bit more likely anyway with the codes from last week that were shown here.

 

[Discostew]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but a big reason why a platform would have a mid-gen refresh has to do with interest in the original platform, right? If a platform is showing a slowing of sales, then that becomes a push to bring something out that would increase interest. Sure, a platform does go through multiple SKUs, but for those, it never really does anything but optimize what already exists, like lowering power consumption, make the unit smaller, etc. The refreshes tend to bring something new or improve, like 4K with PS4 Pro and XB1X, but in Nintendo's case, imo, it usually has to do with gimmicks to accompany what they improve.

Unless I'm mistaken, there have been only 2 generations where Nintendo had mid-gen refreshes. The DS and the 3DS, being the DSi and n3DS respectfully. In both cases, the focus wasn't about power, but power is what was required for the inclusion of what they featured. With the DSi, they added a inner-facing camera, a digital store, and a web browser built in (as opposed to the GBA cart method). The use of those requires an increase in CPU power (to 133Mhz, 2x the original), RAM capacity (to 16MB, 4x the original), and the need for internal storage (256MB, new). I don't think any game outside of digital and DSi-specified carts utilized the faster CPU to boost performance.

With the the n3DS, the main focus was the inclusion of super-stable 3D. I don't know exactly how much processing the SS3D required, but it seemed it not only needed its own core that wasn't shared with anything else, but the base frequency wasn't enough for that either. So they increased the CPU power (to 804Mhz, 3x the original), increased the core count (4-cores, 2x the original, which I imagine they couldn't have 3-cores by design or the cost difference of 4 was negligible), and increased the RAM capacity (256MB, 2x the original). It also got a boost to VRAM from 6MB to 10MB, but I don't know if that was required for SS3D. While they were at it, they included the functionality of the CPP to add the extra shoulder buttons and a c-nub in place of the other circle pad. Various games do utilize the increased CPU power (MH4U for more stable frame rate and faster load times), increased RAM (Smash Bros so it didn't have to swap out the OS), and others.

The thing I'm pointing out is that with Nintendo, the general reason for improved specs with a mid-gen refresh wasn't for the games to run better, even if it resulted in that. It was to handle whatever gimmicks they included, to grab people's attention for a platform that was showing signs of slowing down early on. This is why, imo, Switch never got a mid-gen refresh, regardless if one was planned. When other platforms saw slowing of sales a few years after the initial launch, Switch kept its pace, and even went faster. It's only now that sales are slowing down, but we are deep into the 6th year (5 full years plus most of the 6th), which is around the time we would expect a successor to come around. It's why I feel the idea that a mid-gen refresh was never planned for this time now ('22 - '23), and that if it was ever planned, it was meant for years ago.

There's also something about the prior mid-gen refreshes. In both cases, the hardware was improved, but was never changed out for something different. I mean, with the DSi, it used the same ARM9 CPU, just at a higher frequency. With the n3DS, it used the same ARM11 CPU, just at a high frequency and more cores. GPU was not touched (besides the VRAM in the n3DS). This is likely due to the need to keep compatibility with existing titles. So what about a supposed Switch mid-gen refresh? In all honesty, what could they use? Basically using anything that wasn't a TX1(+) might mean incompatibilities in at least one category, mainly the GPU if the architecture of predecessors differs enough, where the need to translate calls (and handle shaders) would be required. Would the TX2 even be a candidate when it has the same 4-core A57s?

 

[My Tulpa]

You really believe zero people were confused by the Wii U branding? Even Iwata himself commented on it:

"Some have the misunderstanding that Wii U is just Wii with a pad for games, and others even consider Wii U GamePad as a peripheral device connectable to Wii," Nintendo's Satoru Iwata said during an earnings briefing. "We feel deeply responsible for not having tried hard enough to have consumers understand the product."

I’m saying it had nothing to do with the Wii U acting like a typical Nintendo home console in terms of demand/sales.

Nintendo will always fault themselves on “marketing and explaining” when it comes to products of theirs that fail expectations. They also commented that they should have done a better job explaining the Switch Lite to gamers, for example.

I’m sure some people in 2005 thought the xbox360 was a HD DVD add on box for the original Xbox…doesn’t mean anything in terms of eventual sales.

You want me to believe that the same people “confused” by the Wii U gamepad in 2012 still refused to play Mario Kart 8 in 2014 because they were sooooooo confused by what’s going on?

Sorry, I just don’t buy that. People who didn’t want to pay $300 to JUST play a few big Nintendo games on their tv knew exactly what was going on. They realized by 2014 that Nintendo was no longer making new games for their Wii’s. They just wasn’t interested in the Wii U tv game library enough to buy it.

 

[ShadowFox08]

Unless I'm mistaken, there have been only 2 generations where Nintendo had mid-gen refreshes. The DS and the 3DS, being the DSi and n3DS respectfully. In both cases, the focus wasn't about power, but power is what was required for the inclusion of what they featured. With the DSi, they added a inner-facing camera, a digital store, and a web browser built in (as opposed to the GBA cart method). The use of those requires an increase in CPU power (to 133Mhz, 2x the original), RAM capacity (to 16MB, 4x the original), and the need for internal storage (256MB, new). I don't think any game outside of digital and DSi-specified carts utilized the faster CPU to boost performance.

With the the n3DS, the main focus was the inclusion of super-stable 3D. I don't know exactly how much processing the SS3D required, but it seemed it not only needed its own core that wasn't shared with anything else, but the base frequency wasn't enough for that either. So they increased the CPU power (to 804Mhz, 3x the original), increased the core count (4-cores, 2x the original, which I imagine they couldn't have 3-cores by design or the cost difference of 4 was negligible), and increased the RAM capacity (256MB, 2x the original). It also got a boost to VRAM from 6MB to 10MB, but I don't know if that was required for SS3D. While they were at it, they included the functionality of the CPP to add the extra shoulder buttons and a c-nub in place of the other circle pad. Various games do utilize the increased CPU power (MH4U for more stable frame rate and faster load times), increased RAM (Smash Bros so it didn't have to swap out the OS), and others.

The thing I'm pointing out is that with Nintendo, the general reason for improved specs with a mid-gen refresh wasn't for the games to run better, even if it resulted in that. It was to handle whatever gimmicks they included, to grab people's attention for a platform that was showing signs of slowing down early on. This is why, imo, Switch never got a mid-gen refresh, regardless if one was planned. When other platforms saw slowing of sales a few years after the initial launch, Switch kept its pace, and even went faster. It's only now that sales are slowing down, but we are deep into the 6th year (5 full years plus most of the 6th), which is around the time we would expect a successor to come around. It's why I feel the idea that a mid-gen refresh was never planned for this time now ('22 - '23), and that if it was ever planned, it was meant for years ago.

There's also something about the prior mid-gen refreshes. In both cases, the hardware was improved, but was never changed out for something different. I mean, with the DSi, it used the same ARM9 CPU, just at a higher frequency. With the n3DS, it used the same ARM11 CPU, just at a high frequency and more cores. GPU was not touched (besides the VRAM in the n3DS). This is likely due to the need to keep compatibility with existing titles. So what about a supposed Switch mid-gen refresh? In all honesty, what could they use? Basically using anything that wasn't a TX1(+) might mean incompatibilities in at least one category, mainly the GPU if the architecture of predecessors differs enough, where the need to translate calls (and handle shaders) would be required. Would the TX2 even be a candidate when it has the same 4-core A57s?

I wanna say tx2 and Mariko are nearly identical in clock speed capabilities, except tx2 has denver cores that would likely have to be turned off or removed, and 128 bit bus bandwidth that would have given us 50 GB/s bandwidth. That would helped quite a bit at launch or 2020 (but was too late for launch). Kinda glad they didn't let Mariko go that route with increased clocks speeds.

 

[Lancelot]

Its hard to say about the RAM, since we have yet to test it. It's probably not gonna be a big of a bottleneck as Switch was. There's definitely gonna be some more efficient hardware and the increased cache should help migate the bottlneck. And DLSS should help too. I think we'll be fine with Switch level and maybe xbone level games reaching 4K (the latter with DLSS) I dunno about PS4 level games reaching 4k with DLSS. I don't know the nuance requirements.

The A57s are comparable to the last gen jaguars per Hz as well for single core processing. Nintendo will likely have 8 cores this time instead of 4, and will dedicate 6-7 cores for gaming. That should help a lol, but it's important to note that Jaguars were clocked at 1.6Ghz, while current gen is at 3.5Ghz minimum. So Nintendo can't pull a 1 GHz on CPU, or we'll end up with the same power discrepancy as switch vs ps4. I'm hoping they shoot for at least 1.5 GHz, so it will close the CPU gap to a little over 2x for single core. AMD has always been superior in multi thread computations though.


With DLSS from a graphics perspective, maybe. But not for CPU extensive games.

I'm not too optimistic on Drake reaching 4 tflops on docked, even if we get 4nm tsmc. But it's looking like Samsung is a bit more likely anyway with the codes from last week that were shown here.

It won't even need the 4 TFLOPS to do that, reaching those numbers would basically slaughter Series S. DLSS alone will push it quite far with 1st party efforts, and we're yet to see how developers squeeze the RT cores to outsource lightning systems. If anything, the fact we're going to get a comparable (and arguably superior) device in a infinitely smaller form factor says a lot about how powerful this thing already is.

Another important consideration is that raytracing gets more demanding the more pixels you're rendering in screen, so... If we're getting a native 540/720p in most demanding games to let DLSS upscale it. Well, I'm afraid this will make it fare much better in lightning quality later down the line, and Imo, makes this budget console useless in my eyes.

 

[Bosintang]

This is going to sound like I'm attacking Nate Drake again, or at least his approach to all this. And that's because I am. I prefer to be upfront about that.

Using the "plans changed" card and the "more info in the next episode" card back to back feels a lot like what an astrologist would say to a client about to realize they're getting scammed. And thinking of it, that whole insider thing has a lot in common with how astrology works. For instance, making statements hard to verify and vague enough to be interpreted however a client wants it, or cold reading // educated guessing trivial or comparatively minor things and having a positive success rate at that, giving credence to the aforementioned vague statements.

And in both cases, the clients, or in that case, the fans, are very reluctant to any opposing view and can become more than antsy when their constructed reality is being questioned. And yes, I'm a bit petty on the internet and I haven't forgotten how mentioning "2024" as a likely outcome used to be mocked around here, because it went "against everything NateDrake said". (excuse me for paraphrasing)

And to be clear, I do not believe that it makes mr. drake's followers stupid or anything, as I'm of the opinion that being manipulated isn't related to intelligence. So, I'm going to give an unrequested opinion, my opinion*, to Mr. Drake on how to be more credible: stop being cryptic on purpose (it has to be on purpose, at this point). If you really know something and if you're willing to share it, just spill the beans, and tell people how credible you think that is for example. Leaving people hanging and debating sometimes for days about the meaning of "heavy" is really uncool and makes you look like you're just toying with them. I refrained from participating in that debate at the time because people would have thought I was making fun of them if I did; they may have been right but that's another debate.

You're obviously free to conduct your business (which it is) as you please, and it must be profitable enough as you have done it for quite some time, but I certainly won't stop calling you out when I feel like it. Or at least, before I'm being permanently banned, which could now happen at any moment.

*as everything in this message

 

[Maxrunner]

They are riding the tails of those that are pushing the industry forward and already had years under their belt.

??really?

 

[Mekanos]

I’m saying it had nothing to do with the Wii U acting like a typical Nintendo home console in terms of demand/sales.

Nintendo will always fault themselves on “marketing and explaining” when it comes to products of theirs that fail expectations. They also commented that they should have done a better job explaining the Switch Lite to gamers, for example.

I’m sure some people in 2005 thought the xbox360 was a HD DVD add on box for the original Xbox…doesn’t mean anything in terms of eventual sales.

You want me to believe that the same people “confused” by the Wii U gamepad in 2012 still refused to play Mario Kart 8 in 2014 because they were sooooooo confused by what’s going on?

Sorry, I just don’t buy that. People who didn’t want to pay $300 to JUST play a few big Nintendo games on their tv knew exactly what was going on. They realized by 2014 that Nintendo was no longer making new games for their Wii’s. They just wasn’t interested in the Wii U tv game library enough to buy it.

You don’t buy it because you refuse to listen to anyone else but yourself.

 

[My Tulpa]

There’s no reasoning with this guy, even with quotes or facts.

I can absolutely can be reasoned with when presented with quotes or facts. lol

Just because I don’t believe customer confusion is what made the GameCube and Wii U sell under 30 million doesn’t mean I can’t be reasoned with, don’t be silly

The stumbling parents thing does sound a bit silly, yeah, but that's not what was relayed to me. They said employees didn't even realize it was a new, separate HD system, because (according to them so again, anecdotal) the messaging the retailers got from Nintendo was that bad.

The stumbling parents issue would typically be solved by the employees informing them of what they were or were not purchasing. But if the employees aren't even fully informed of the product then what?

I believe this being in issue in 2012.

I do not believe a retailer who sold consoles in 2014 was asked by someone “what’s this Wii U thing?” and that retailer just shrugged, no lol.

The Wii U sold perfectly reasonably in 2012 despite confusion. Had perfectly normal holiday launch numbers. Its sales 2-3 years in (when most casual consumers jump into new consoles) were low.

Retailers were not confused about what the Wii U was when Mario Kart 8, 3D world, and Smash Bros U released. Nor were consumers.

Whether everything I'm saying is bs or not, Nintendo is likely very aware of the possibility of muddying the messaging if the new Switch is not very carefully marketed.

I agree. I’m sure Nintendo worried about how best to present the Lite and the OLED without muddying things as well. This is something all console makers worry about and strategize concerning new models/consoles.

I just want to be clear, I wasn’t trying to say your story was BS. I believe some people were once confused. I’m saying the argument that this is why the Wii U sold just under Gamecube type sales is a BS argument.

 

[Sol]

I keep seeing posts that Drake is already being manufactured. Where is this information coming from? That sounds like huge news, and I would think that some outlet like Bloomberg would be all over something like that.

 

[bloopland33]

Gonna be long week+ waiting for that podcast. Will be very curious to learn more.

Gonna be such a bummer if games like MK8, Sonic Frontiers and others miss the boat on ‘guaranteed’ enhancements if this new hardware comes out after many of these games wrap support.

Meanwhile watch the Arkham collection surface this year and we get blurry Arkham Knight

 

[kojimaposting]

I keep seeing posts that Drake is already being manufactured. Where is this information coming from? That sounds like huge news, and I would think that some outlet like Bloomberg would be all over something like that.

I believe people mean that the Linux commit news means that Drake samples exist (not specifically Switch successor units). We have an unconfirmed Chinese forum leak that full prod starts in January (from the same network that confirmed the Splatoon 3 OLED) but that's about it.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

??really?

Yes? Hello? This is about technical boundaries (for a console), not creativity of gaming that people enjoy.

 

[Concernt]

Mini-Discs and the arrival of DVD doomed the GameCube. Minidisc was going cartridge all over again. Meanwhile DVD hit the scene and Sony was like yo not only do you get to play games. It's a cheap DVD player!

Any nervousness Nintendo has about the next gen is tied to a 1 hardware line future. They don't have a GBA or DS family to save them if the console flops this time.

Technically GameCube used GameCube Optical Disk, a format extremely similar to miniDVD but just different enough they didn't have to pay licencing fees. Minidisk was a Sony exclusive magneto-optical format for music.

You're right about everything else though, going with miniDVD style disks was a total kneecap. Worse than cartridge in some ways.

 

[Lancelot]

There’s nothing to rush here. HD development isn’t new. The scope of the games that will happen to touch Drake, already has been done in the industry. For almost a decade now.

The 360 and PS3 had a slower start, and a while to end.

PS4 and XBox One had a slower start, and a while to end.

And their timing is matched with each other for competitive reasons, the recent filing about when they foresee the next platforms from the ABK x MS merger showed as much. Hell, they are targeting after 2027. Will the goalpost move to now “console generations are 8 years long”?




Nintendo tapped out of that competition ages ago, so they aren’t beholden to getting a console at the same date, and nor are they doing anything new in scope that wasn’t already done. They are riding the tails of those that are pushing the industry forward and already had years under their belt


If they release it “late” or “early” as it’s been dubbed, it’s because they coasted or because they chose to.

not saying that this is releasing next year here, but people keep saying they’ll be too early or risk being too early.

But I’m only going to say this and it’s gonna be a funny thing when noticed: there’s never really been a detriment to releasing a new console too early from a competent player. The idea that something is too “early” hasn’t had credence.

To be fair... Nintendo forgot about computational power because of a CEO that wanted to push gimmicks down our throats every single time, Drake is a very competent, powerful handheld going from these specs that is certainly this strong for a reason. Our new leader Furukawa has already stated in the past that they wanted to pursue cutting edge technology for future systems, why would you want cutting edge tech if you're not going to make advanced, revolutionary software for it? I don't think you should put both leaderships in the same ballpark because they're very different in approach, there's clearly interest to make groundbreaking games again in the technical and complexity side, otherwise... The decision to ditch the mid-gen refresh for true next gen (in case it was indeed true) didn't need to be made at all.

 

[My Tulpa]

But those didn't flop because they were the previous consoles but better.

GameCube flopped because it didn't have that huge launch title that N64 had; Luigi Mansion is great but it wasn't a Mario 64 calibur title, and Pikmin though released very close to the launch of GameCube was a new IP and still very niche, Super Smash Bros was still a new series and didn't have the build up like it does today. It also was competing against the PS2 which had a DVD drive.

The Wii U - Terrible name, horrible marketing, Nintendo Land and NSMBU while great games were not hyped at all. The Wii launched with Wii Sports and Twilight Princess, both titles that were hyped (Wii Sports being free) and the hype of the WiiShop.

NES 61 million > SNES 49 million > N64 32 million > GameCube 21 million > Wii U 14 million

It’s perfectly in line with what one should expect from traditional Nintendo home consoles in a world where pc gaming experiences on TV gaming console became more and more pervasive and popular. And also in a world where Nintendo handheld gaming exists.

The Wii was an anomaly because it offered compelling unique gameplay you couldn’t find anywhere else at the time.

What we learned from the Wii U was simply that the unique gameplay of having a big screen on a traditional game controller wasn’t a compelling enough draw to get tv console gamers to buck the trend of their interest in Nintendo home console gaming.

 

[ezidro3]

#NintendoOnPC2024

/s

In a more serious note, I am curious to see what Nintendo is planning hardware and software wise this year. With the details on the NVidia T239 is actually for Nintendo. Supposedly, it is but NVidia has worked with MS before, and MS is trying to get into the ARM market with Windows on ARM. MS has used Tegra chipsets from the Zune HD to the Surface 1 and 2 running Windows RT. If the DLSS will be enabled on both handheld and docked, I wonder how that will affect emulation if the games expect the DLSS hardware. I know there are some translation layers that can pretend but they aren't perfect.

Drake emulation on games that use DLSS will more than likely lean on FSR 2.0 to interpret those calls. That's already something that's being done on PC, mods that replace the DLSS file so that it uses FSR 2.0 instead

DLSS Unlocker if you're curious

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

I think I should clarify a bit on this because I think people are going to misunderstand or quote it to oblivion but by that comment of Nintendo riding the coattails, it’s actually not that bad of a position, as in they don’t have to discover something new, it’s already discovered, and this helps usually in that the thing that is discovered is perhaps a way of making something more efficient in workflow.

If they integrate these different methods or strategies or findings into the workflow, they can make it quicker and more efficient to deliver a product in the end. It’s best to look at it like this: starting a company from nothing is not the same as starting a company from something and looking at others that have been in this playing field for many years and integrating a better version of what they do into your pipeline for your companies needs. This is what I mean by “Nintendo is riding the coattails of those that push the industry forward”

But I’m pretty sure this is intentional because it makes the whole process more efficient for them.

This is not really as bad as it sounds. Nintendo is an active player in this industry, but I’ve noticed that they are more of the observer to improve upon for technical aspects. Not in innovative aspects, I am focusing on the technical aspect of it here. Innovative is something else left to their own creative devices.

 

[Serif]

This is not really as bad as it sounds. Nintendo is an active player in this industry, but I’ve noticed that they are more of the observer to improve upon for technical aspects. Not in innovative aspects, I am focusing on the technical aspect of it here. Innovative is something else left to their own creative devices.

I get what you're saying, along the lines of "lateral thinking with seasoned technology" that Gunpei Yokoi described as his philosophy for the Game and Watch and Game Boy. And I suppose it applies to their use of a Tegra X1 for a hybrid.

Interestingly it seems Nvidia demo'd DLSS to Nintendo some time ago based on the leak, in 2019-2020. I don't think DLSS was that seasoned by that point. It seems Nintendo hopped on that train earlier than we expected. I guess it's still some form of 'lateral thinking', since DLSS would be a valuable tool to use in a hybrid device rather than just help push raytracing effects with higher frames in a desktop card.

 

[ILikeFeet]

I get what you're saying, along the lines of "lateral thinking with seasoned technology" that Gunpei Yokoi described as his philosophy for the Game and Watch and Game Boy. And I suppose it applies to their use of a Tegra X1 for a hybrid.

Interestingly it seems Nvidia demo'd DLSS to Nintendo some time ago based on the leak, in 2019-2020. I don't think DLSS was that seasoned by that point. It seems Nintendo hopped on that train earlier than we expected. I guess it's still some form of 'lateral thinking', since DLSS would be a valuable tool to use in a hybrid device rather than just help push raytracing effects with higher frames in a desktop card.

Yokoi's idea of withered technology doesn't really apply anymore now that tech is moving at a significantly faster pace. what powered the gameboy was older compared to what will power drake upon release.

 

[Deleted member 887]

This is going to sound like I'm attacking Nate Drake again, or at least his approach to all this. And that's because I am. I prefer to be upfront about that.

Saying you are attacking a community member doesn't make it acceptable. Nor does putting in an asterisk saying that its your opinion.

Using the "plans changed" card and the "more info in the next episode" card back to back feels a lot like what an astrologist would say to a client about to realize they're getting scammed. And thinking of it, that whole insider thing has a lot in common with how astrology works. For instance, making statements hard to verify and vague enough to be interpreted however a client wants it, or cold reading // educated guessing trivial or comparatively minor things and having a positive success rate at that, giving credence to the aforementioned vague statements.

You are correct that this is how a con artist works. Part of the reason the cards work is because, of course, these things do legitimately happen. And this leads to people not being able to tell the difference between con artists and the truth tellers. Usually that works to the con artists advantage.

One of the ways to tell the difference between the two is to ask how often the person is right, and if there "rightness" is confirmed by others. When Nate said GameBoy and N64 games were coming to NSO, and only N64 games were coming, what happened? Well, the emulation for GameBoy games were datamined and then leaked. The "plans changing" were confirmed.

The idea that Nate is a liar comes out but no one has been able to point to what the hell he's lying about.

And in both cases, the clients, or in that case, the fans, are very reluctant to any opposing view and can become more than antsy when their constructed reality is being questioned. And yes, I'm a bit petty on the internet and I haven't forgotten how mentioning "2024" as a likely outcome used to be mocked around here, because it went "against everything NateDrake said". (excuse me for paraphrasing)

And to be clear, I do not believe that it makes mr. drake's followers stupid or anything, as I'm of the opinion that being manipulated isn't related to intelligence. So, I'm going to give an unrequested opinion, my opinion*, to Mr. Drake on how to be more credible: stop being cryptic on purpose (it has to be on purpose, at this point).

Nate has been asked questions and he answers them. "Heavy" was in direct response to a question. Nate doesn't come in here and stir up shit. He clearly doesn't state rumors, and waits for confirmation, and only talks about future podcasts and what he might be pursuing when directly asked in a fan forum, and then people like you come out and call him an asshole for it.

Nate should leave, for his own goddamn sanity. As should I.

The problem with you bringing up 2024 and getting a lot of pushback partially comes from the fact this is easily the most aggressive and toxic thread in this forum. And you are contributing to the problem. You've trashed Nate indirectly before and been called out for it, you've called me a delusional liar.

There is a way to present an opinion without saying that anyone who disagrees with that opinion is wrong/bad. Loudly saying "IT'S JUST MY OPINION" is not one of them

If you really know something and if you're willing to share it, just spill the beans, and tell people how credible you think that is for example.

It's almost as if the man has a job and a podcast, as if he's inly responded to direct questions in this thread, has already stated that he's doing the podcast to explain all the details, and only confirmed John Linneman's public statements when it came into the thread

Leaving people hanging and debating sometimes for days about the meaning of "heavy" is really uncool and makes you look like you're just toying with them. I refrained from participating in that debate at the time because people would have thought I was making fun of them if I did; they may have been right but that's another debate.

You're obviously free to conduct your business (which it is) as you please, and it must be profitable enough as you have done it for quite some time, but I certainly won't stop calling you out when I feel like it. Or at least, before I'm being permanently banned, which could now happen at any moment.

I hope your opinion on Nate doesn't affect whether or not you're banned. I hope that the thing that gets you banned is that you position yourself as merely a "truth teller" while ragging on other community members.

 

[Vash]

This is going to sound like I'm attacking Nate Drake again, or at least his approach to all this. And that's because I am. I prefer to be upfront about that.

Using the "plans changed" card and the "more info in the next episode" card back to back feels a lot like what an astrologist would say to a client about to realize they're getting scammed. And thinking of it, that whole insider thing has a lot in common with how astrology works. For instance, making statements hard to verify and vague enough to be interpreted however a client wants it, or cold reading // educated guessing trivial or comparatively minor things and having a positive success rate at that, giving credence to the aforementioned vague statements.

And in both cases, the clients, or in that case, the fans, are very reluctant to any opposing view and can become more than antsy when their constructed reality is being questioned. And yes, I'm a bit petty on the internet and I haven't forgotten how mentioning "2024" as a likely outcome used to be mocked around here, because it went "against everything NateDrake said". (excuse me for paraphrasing)

And to be clear, I do not believe that it makes mr. drake's followers stupid or anything, as I'm of the opinion that being manipulated isn't related to intelligence. So, I'm going to give an unrequested opinion, my opinion*, to Mr. Drake on how to be more credible: stop being cryptic on purpose (it has to be on purpose, at this point). If you really know something and if you're willing to share it, just spill the beans, and tell people how credible you think that is for example. Leaving people hanging and debating sometimes for days about the meaning of "heavy" is really uncool and makes you look like you're just toying with them. I refrained from participating in that debate at the time because people would have thought I was making fun of them if I did; they may have been right but that's another debate.

You're obviously free to conduct your business (which it is) as you please, and it must be profitable enough as you have done it for quite some time, but I certainly won't stop calling you out when I feel like it. Or at least, before I'm being permanently banned, which could now happen at any moment.

*as everything in this message

Give it a rest. You've been on this crusade for over 24 hours at this point.

The system got shelved. Get over it

 

[TurtleRock]

But those didn't flop because they were the previous consoles but better.

GameCube flopped because it didn't have that huge launch title that N64 had; Luigi Mansion is great but it wasn't a Mario 64 calibur title, and Pikmin though released very close to the launch of GameCube was a new IP and still very niche, Super Smash Bros was still a new series and didn't have the build up like it does today. It also was competing against the PS2 which had a DVD drive.

The Wii U - Terrible name, horrible marketing, Nintendo Land and NSMBU while great games were not hyped at all. The Wii launched with Wii Sports and Twilight Princess, both titles that were hyped (Wii Sports being free) and the hype of the WiiShop.

3DS - This should have launched Holiday 2011 when there were games ready, all the launch games were 3rd party ports and the one game that was hyped (Ocarina of Time 3D) didn't launch until June 2011, 4 months after the launch.

N64 sold worse than the SNES despite having a seminal, groundbreaking launch title AND it was a Mario title to boot.

The GameCube had a poor launch but so did the PS2. It didn't slow down Playstation one bit. The Dreamcast had arguably one of the greatest launch lineups in history and it still failed to gain any meaningful market share. There is more to a console's appeal than a "good launch." The GameCube simply didn't have it. A fantastic launch would not have changed the fortunes of the system.

The WiiU would not have sold well even if they executed everything perfectly and I've said as much. I do not believe that the casual audience Nintendo attracted with Wii was ever going to stay with them.

The 3DS launched early but it was also expensive for its time. But the fact of the matter is it's big innovation (3D without glasses) was impossible to market and didn't do much to attract core consumers. I will say it's the most similar to a potential Switch successor in terms of customer base for speculative purposes.

I strongly disagree.

There is no way a traditional home console from Nintendo in a world where cheap, pc gaming consoles (Xbox/ps) exist would sell any better than the $99 GameCube did.

I did say that was a bullish and optimistic scenario. I don't think WiiU would have sniffed 20 million to be completely honest. And that's if Nintendo executed everything perfectly in terms of marketing and the console launch. I simply don't believe they had a core demographic audience at that point that would have upgraded. Core gamers upgrade, casuals consumers don't.

I really do wonder how much the naming of these consoles has hurt their potential sales. Wii U and 3DS don't indicate any kind of progression from the previous console. Just a relation, which may in fact have some kind of inhibitory effect on sales as people may not perceive that they need the console given they have a closely related system.

Why has Sony been so successful over the years? I think part of it is the simplicity of the naming. Playstation 2. Simple, clear naming. The fact that it's a successor to the original Playstation was inherent in the name. Then 3, 4, now 5, etc. IMO Nintendo needs to adopt this kind of naming scheme going forward.

Sony's success is largely driven by the perceived value of their brand. They have a strong audience of core gamers that buy their systems. I think the names make things easier for marketing, but I also think that they would be successful regardless of naming conventions. Sony's biggest hiccup (PS3 launch) was when their console was way over the current market price for a home gaming system compounded by a weak launch. And they rebounded pretty hard when the console got much cheaper.

Putting aside that I strongly disagree that the Wii to Wii U was a sensible execution of ‘the same but better’, using it as a comparison to a hypothetical Switch’s transition is a major oversimplification of their relative positions in the market.

Nintendo has, arguably for the first time in decades, created a device that resonates with the a massive chunk of the broader core audience, Nintendo fans or otherwise. Wii was called a Wii Sports machine for good reason - it forewent the core audience in favor of chasing the blue ocean, hoping to catch that casual-focused lightning in a bottle repeatedly, and overall they suffered for that choice. Switch on the other hand is seeing very typical gaming experiences as it’s best sellers, and they are all smashing records in their respective franchises.

Nintendo remains fortunate enough to be uncontested in their hybrid offering, and so long as they can remain in arm’s reach of whatever content is being released elsewhere from a technical standpoint, they can hold this position at least another generation I’d think. They are 130M (?) units strong now, and are only just seeing their perception as a solid piece of tech start to erode. From what we know (or what this thread has told me), the tech on offer from Nvidia’s T239 certainly sounded like it would meet or even exceed that ‘arm’s reach’ requirement for current gen.

So when I say it’s so obvious it’s painful, I’m not looking at Wii to Wii U. The Wii isn’t the Switch, even if lifetime hardware sales aren’t far off. Sony has managed to increment their number and keep pace with technology to much success, and it wouldn’t hurt Nintendo to do that for once. Improve the performance, fix common grievances, ensure it’s backwards compatible, and don’t funk up the marketing.

I don't disagree. The execution of WiiU was awful. But on paper the WiiU is the Wii but better. And I've mentioned in this thread that even if the execution had been better I don't think the WiiU would have been too successful anyway. And that's because I completely agree with your main point that Nintendo's consumers demographics are leaps and bound better than than it has been at any point in their history. The audience that bought the Switch has little in common with the audience that bought the Wii. Nintendo is in a fantastic position to release "a better Switch" to the point where yes, I agree it's painfully obvious what they should do.

However, my original point was Nintendo, historically, has been trending downward when it comes to home console sales, especially when they iterate on their prior gen system. I can see why some people at Nintendo might be just a little bit anxious about releasing a "Switch 2" or whatever. The data is not their side historically.

Personally, I think they have nothing to worry about and a Switch 2 is going to buck the trend. They have virtually no competition in the portable console space. The Switch has a much more engaged and core gaming audience. They're in a good spot.

 

[Serif]

Yokoi's idea of withered technology doesn't really apply anymore now that tech is moving at a significantly faster pace. what powered the gameboy was older compared to what will power drake upon release.

Yes that's why I brought up the DLSS example. It's proven at this point but in 2019 it was new and it has already been incorporated in Drake since then. And Orin came out just this year.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

I get what you're saying, along the lines of "lateral thinking with seasoned technology" that Gunpei Yokoi described as his philosophy for the Game and Watch and Game Boy. And I suppose it applies to their use of a Tegra X1 for a hybrid.

Interestingly it seems Nvidia demo'd DLSS to Nintendo some time ago based on the leak, in 2019-2020. I don't think DLSS was that seasoned by that point. It seems Nintendo hopped on that train earlier than we expected. I guess it's still some form of 'lateral thinking', since DLSS would be a valuable tool to use in a hybrid device rather than just help push raytracing effects with higher frames in a desktop card.

Sorta, I’ll use an example: so like let’s use RTGI implemented into a game on a console and it manages to run at 60FPS and at a high quality with the game having a high fidelity too, so path tracing so to speak. This gets shown at the GDC of which Nintendo is part of. Rather than Nintendo expend say, 2-3 years figuring to make it work, they can spend 1-2 years on it or maybe shorter.

This as a result shortened the development time needed for a game. This in turn helps their other internal studios.


Shorten dev time, save costs, more games out, etc etc.


Basically to avoid the N64 dilemma.

Or maybe we are saying the same thing? I’m basically applying it to the render side of things here.



Edit: also if developers that developed on other systems already figured out a efficient way of trying to do something or an approach that works for them, they can apply to the Nintendo system and make their workflow more efficient. So Nintendo by extension benefits from development of games that are possible on their system from developers that have already experienced development on other systems that have been out for a while. It’s a weird way of looking at it but when you think about it, it somewhat makes sense I think?


But this is getting more into the Philosophical perspective of this subject.

 

[bmfrosty]

On the litigation of Nintendo system names, its a lot more complicated than that.

The business practices that helped the NES and SNES hurt them for the next two generations.

N64 could have done better with a CD drive since it changes the business model.

GameCube could have done better if it had feature parity with PS2 and XBOX. If it were also a DVD player it would have helped. If it had as many buttons as the other two it would have helped.

Wii and Wii U we're not forward thinking in enough ways or right ways.

Wii was wonderful out the door, but it's specific failings were:
1. Didn't revise to an HD console soon enough. 2009 would have been perfect.
2. Kept the GameCube graphics pipeline despite there being strong movement towards newer shader models.

Wii U was the only system where in retrospect the name actually hurt it.
1. The name did lead to some confusion. I think Wii 2 would have been easier to understand
2. Still relied on GameCube graphics (more or less). This made ps360 ports much more difficult. This meant that low spec XBone and PS4 ports basically undoable.
3. OS issues were abundant and the upgrades they skipped made Wii BC even more painful.

Switch done almost everything right at this point. Not enough wrong things for them to have regrets.

For the 2023 model there are only a few things that I'd want to see:

1. Hybrid, Lite, and TV only models.
2. Feature parity on the controller and hall effect joysticks.
3. Enough capability to be able to get straightforward ports of any game that runs on xb1s or ps4.
4. A straightforward name that explains the system in and of itself. Switch 2 is my leading contender.

 

[My Tulpa]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but a big reason why a platform would have a mid-gen refresh has to do with interest in the original platform, right? If a platform is showing a slowing of sales, then that becomes a push to bring something out that would increase interest. Sure, a platform does go through multiple SKUs, but for those, it never really does anything but optimize what already exists, like lowering power consumption, make the unit smaller, etc. The refreshes tend to bring something new or improve, like 4K with PS4 Pro and XB1X, but in Nintendo's case, imo, it usually has to do with gimmicks to accompany what they improve.

Unless I'm mistaken, there have been only 2 generations where Nintendo had mid-gen refreshes. The DS and the 3DS, being the DSi and n3DS respectfully. In both cases, the focus wasn't about power, but power is what was required for the inclusion of what they featured. With the DSi, they added a inner-facing camera, a digital store, and a web browser built in (as opposed to the GBA cart method). The use of those requires an increase in CPU power (to 133Mhz, 2x the original), RAM capacity (to 16MB, 4x the original), and the need for internal storage (256MB, new). I don't think any game outside of digital and DSi-specified carts utilized the faster CPU to boost performance.

With the the n3DS, the main focus was the inclusion of super-stable 3D. I don't know exactly how much processing the SS3D required, but it seemed it not only needed its own core that wasn't shared with anything else, but the base frequency wasn't enough for that either. So they increased the CPU power (to 804Mhz, 3x the original), increased the core count (4-cores, 2x the original, which I imagine they couldn't have 3-cores by design or the cost difference of 4 was negligible), and increased the RAM capacity (256MB, 2x the original). It also got a boost to VRAM from 6MB to 10MB, but I don't know if that was required for SS3D. While they were at it, they included the functionality of the CPP to add the extra shoulder buttons and a c-nub in place of the other circle pad. Various games do utilize the increased CPU power (MH4U for more stable frame rate and faster load times), increased RAM (Smash Bros so it didn't have to swap out the OS), and others.

The thing I'm pointing out is that with Nintendo, the general reason for improved specs with a mid-gen refresh wasn't for the games to run better, even if it resulted in that. It was to handle whatever gimmicks they included, to grab people's attention for a platform that was showing signs of slowing down early on. This is why, imo, Switch never got a mid-gen refresh, regardless if one was planned. When other platforms saw slowing of sales a few years after the initial launch, Switch kept its pace, and even went faster. It's only now that sales are slowing down, but we are deep into the 6th year (5 full years plus most of the 6th), which is around the time we would expect a successor to come around. It's why I feel the idea that a mid-gen refresh was never planned for this time now ('22 - '23), and that if it was ever planned, it was meant for years ago.

There's also something about the prior mid-gen refreshes. In both cases, the hardware was improved, but was never changed out for something different. I mean, with the DSi, it used the same ARM9 CPU, just at a higher frequency. With the n3DS, it used the same ARM11 CPU, just at a high frequency and more cores. GPU was not touched (besides the VRAM in the n3DS). This is likely due to the need to keep compatibility with existing titles. So what about a supposed Switch mid-gen refresh? In all honesty, what could they use? Basically using anything that wasn't a TX1(+) might mean incompatibilities in at least one category, mainly the GPU if the architecture of predecessors differs enough, where the need to translate calls (and handle shaders) would be required. Would the TX2 even be a candidate when it has the same 4-core A57s?

Well, mid gen power upgrade refreshes happen when you expect a console’s lifespan to extend for another 3-4 years from when the model would be released and want to keep software engagement high for those later years. The worry is losing engagement due to perceived aging hardware. This is why Microsoft and Sony did it last gen, for example.

I’ll be honest, even something like the OLED upgrade increased my Switch gaming engagement in 2021/2022 more than I probably would have had with my launch Switch.

Releasing a new upgrade model 6 years into Switch makes sense if you believe Nintendo all the times they have said they expect the Switch to have an unusually long lifespan. They will want something to keep Switch gaming engagement high for the next 3-4 years. And releasing such a thing now when the Switch still has very high sales/engagement makes sense too.

NOT releasing an upgrade model and waiting another few years before releasing a true successor type model makes very little sense. Imo.

 

[ILikeFeet]

N64 sold worse than the SNES despite having a seminal, groundbreaking launch title AND it was a Mario title to boot.

the N64 is a case of being fucked by third party support, rather, lack there of. if N64 got a lot of those big third party games, it wouldn't have been as bad. but Nintendo shat the bed with that with the choice of carts

Yes that's why I brought up the DLSS example. It's proven at this point but in 2019 it was new and it has already been incorporated in Drake since then. And Orin came out just this year.

I'd argue that Nintendo was looking to ditch the ideology sooner. the 3DS was tested with a Tegra 2 chip early on, but it consumed too much power. but goddamn it would have been a big boon with UE3 support out of the box

 

[Pokemaniac]

i am trying to remember the last time they haven't tweeted

It's the last week of the year. I don't know if Nintendo normally Tweets around this time, but nothing of significance is going to be announced regardless.

 

[TurtleRock]

Well, mid gen power upgrade refreshes happen when you expect a console’s lifespan to extend for another 3-4 years from when the model would be released and want to keep software engagement high for those later years. The worry is losing engagement due to perceived aging hardware. This is why Microsoft and Sony did it last gen, for example.

Sony and Microsoft were also in a rough spot because they released 1080p consoles right before 4K TV's really started taking off. So the perception of hardware outdatedness was stronger than usual. 4K TV's got pretty affordable fairly quickly in 2014-2015. So a "home gaming powerhouse console" that couldn't do 4K was a not so great proposition that early in the consoles lifespan. I can understand why they decided to go with their "pro models." That move was unprecedented in the home console space.

 

[hologram]

This is going to sound like I'm attacking Nate Drake again, or at least his approach to all this. And that's because I am. I prefer to be upfront about that.

Using the "plans changed" card and the "more info in the next episode" card back to back feels a lot like what an astrologist would say to a client about to realize they're getting scammed. And thinking of it, that whole insider thing has a lot in common with how astrology works. For instance, making statements hard to verify and vague enough to be interpreted however a client wants it, or cold reading // educated guessing trivial or comparatively minor things and having a positive success rate at that, giving credence to the aforementioned vague statements.

And in both cases, the clients, or in that case, the fans, are very reluctant to any opposing view and can become more than antsy when their constructed reality is being questioned. And yes, I'm a bit petty on the internet and I haven't forgotten how mentioning "2024" as a likely outcome used to be mocked around here, because it went "against everything NateDrake said". (excuse me for paraphrasing)

And to be clear, I do not believe that it makes mr. drake's followers stupid or anything, as I'm of the opinion that being manipulated isn't related to intelligence. So, I'm going to give an unrequested opinion, my opinion*, to Mr. Drake on how to be more credible: stop being cryptic on purpose (it has to be on purpose, at this point). If you really know something and if you're willing to share it, just spill the beans, and tell people how credible you think that is for example. Leaving people hanging and debating sometimes for days about the meaning of "heavy" is really uncool and makes you look like you're just toying with them. I refrained from participating in that debate at the time because people would have thought I was making fun of them if I did; they may have been right but that's another debate.

You're obviously free to conduct your business (which it is) as you please, and it must be profitable enough as you have done it for quite some time, but I certainly won't stop calling you out when I feel like it. Or at least, before I'm being permanently banned, which could now happen at any moment.

*as everything in this message

You're unlikely to get banned for this post, but you will have people telling you to cut it out. It's not because you're speaking truth that no one wants to hear, it's because you're being really obnoxious and self-congratulatory.

It's fine if you don't believe Nate. Hell, this whole incident might make a bunch of people take him less seriously in general on hardware rumors, and I think that would be entirely reasonable. But these kinds of posts add nothing useful to the discussion and just come across like you having a weird, obsessive axe to grind

 

[TheGreatMightyPoo]

It’s not that serious, guys.

And this is coming from a guy who wants the next Switch as much as anyone.

 

[Gay Bowser]

And to be clear, I do not believe that it makes mr. drake's followers stupid or anything, as I'm of the opinion that being manipulated isn't related to intelligence.

I'm not sure it's possible to fit more smugness into a single sentence, while claiming that you're ostensibly not saying others are stupid.

 

[Silent]

This is going to sound like I'm attacking Nate Drake again, or at least his approach to all this. And that's because I am. I prefer to be upfront about that.

Using the "plans changed" card and the "more info in the next episode" card back to back feels a lot like what an astrologist would say to a client about to realize they're getting scammed. And thinking of it, that whole insider thing has a lot in common with how astrology works. For instance, making statements hard to verify and vague enough to be interpreted however a client wants it, or cold reading // educated guessing trivial or comparatively minor things and having a positive success rate at that, giving credence to the aforementioned vague statements.

And in both cases, the clients, or in that case, the fans, are very reluctant to any opposing view and can become more than antsy when their constructed reality is being questioned. And yes, I'm a bit petty on the internet and I haven't forgotten how mentioning "2024" as a likely outcome used to be mocked around here, because it went "against everything NateDrake said". (excuse me for paraphrasing)

And to be clear, I do not believe that it makes mr. drake's followers stupid or anything, as I'm of the opinion that being manipulated isn't related to intelligence. So, I'm going to give an unrequested opinion, my opinion*, to Mr. Drake on how to be more credible: stop being cryptic on purpose (it has to be on purpose, at this point). If you really know something and if you're willing to share it, just spill the beans, and tell people how credible you think that is for example. Leaving people hanging and debating sometimes for days about the meaning of "heavy" is really uncool and makes you look like you're just toying with them. I refrained from participating in that debate at the time because people would have thought I was making fun of them if I did; they may have been right but that's another debate.

You're obviously free to conduct your business (which it is) as you please, and it must be profitable enough as you have done it for quite some time, but I certainly won't stop calling you out when I feel like it. Or at least, before I'm being permanently banned, which could now happen at any moment.

*as everything in this message

I get that you have a personal vendetta against Nate, and I think I understand. In the past I really disliked fake leakers who just wanted attention and especially fake leakers who got attention. And then I really disliked people who gave fake leakers that attention. But in reality, legitimately leaking something or trying to offer information seems like a thankless job.

I tell this story a lot, but there had been one occasion in the past where I was privy to an unannounced game. The problem was, I wasn’t 100% sure what game it was. I knew some aspects of it and so I could reasonably guess this was the game, but I did not have confirmation on the game. If I said I had reason to believe this game was in development, of course people would wonder why I wasn’t 100% sure. And the thing is, I couldn’t even say why because doing so would potentially out my source. I couldn’t even describe the aspects of the game I knew without jeopardizing my source. So yes, I do understand why people have to be vague and very careful with what they say.

I sympathize with Nate because I’m sure he’s trying his best to his ducks in a row. And I’m sure it’s frustrating for him to have every little comment he makes examined. Once people keep asking things like “Why didn’t you say this? Why did you say this? Why didn’t you say this before? Why are you only saying it now? Why did you use this word?” It stops being a fun thing you’re doing for the community and starts feeling like an interrogation.

 

[fwd-bwd]

People behave at their worst when they are feeling righteous. In those moments, I’ve said and done things that I regret later. So this message is not toward anyone, but a reminder for myself. [/OT]

 

[Raccoon]

yeahhh for now I'm gonna assume this got cancelled or significantly delayed

not saying that's sensible, but with these sorts of allusions to some heavy info that can't be shared yet I think I ought to put it completely out of mind

why didn't I listen to myself...

 

[NateDrake]

Saying you are attacking a community member doesn't make it acceptable. Nor does putting in an asterisk saying that its your opinion.


You are correct that this is how a con artist works. Part of the reason the cards work is because, of course, these things do legitimately happen. And this leads to people not being able to tell the difference between con artists and the truth tellers. Usually that works to the con artists advantage.

One of the ways to tell the difference between the two is to ask how often the person is right, and if there "rightness" is confirmed by others. When Nate said GameBoy and N64 games were coming to NSO, and only N64 games were coming, what happened? Well, the emulation for GameBoy games were datamined and then leaked. The "plans changing" were confirmed.

The idea that Nate is a liar comes out but no one has been able to point to what the hell he's lying about.



Nate has been asked questions and he answers them. "Heavy" was in direct response to a question. Nate doesn't come in here and stir up shit. He clearly doesn't state rumors, and waits for confirmation, and only talks about future podcasts and what he might be pursuing when directly asked in a fan forum, and then people like you come out and call him an asshole for it.

Nate should leave, for his own goddamn sanity. As should I.

The problem with you bringing up 2024 and getting a lot of pushback partially comes from the fact this is easily the most aggressive and toxic thread in this forum. And you are contributing to the problem. You've trashed Nate indirectly before and been called out for it, you've called me a delusional liar.

There is a way to present an opinion without saying that anyone who disagrees with that opinion is wrong/bad. Loudly saying "IT'S JUST MY OPINION" is not one of them



It's almost as if the man has a job and a podcast, as if he's inly responded to direct questions in this thread, has already stated that he's doing the podcast to explain all the details, and only confirmed John Linneman's public statements when it came into the thread


I hope your opinion on Nate doesn't affect whether or not you're banned. I hope that the thing that gets you banned is that you position yourself as merely a "truth teller" while ragging on other community members.

I appreciate the words of support here & elsewhere in the thread/forum by some folks.

The attacks of being called a scammer (I've scammed people of what? Their time?) or a clout chaser have grown tired. The few dollars a month the podcast brings is far from a "business". It's a side project for fun & has no impact on my day to day life. I have never sought credit or attention with the information I've shared. A year ago, I was called a liar over Fire Emblem Engage because it wasn't in the first Direct of 2022. Then the game was announced and confirmed the details I shared months prior to any leak surfacing. I remained labeled a liar.

With that being said: in the closing days of 2022, I'm going to reevaluate my time & participation on this site. Attempting to answer questions and partaking in the community is becoming an unpleasant affair &, frankly, one I can do without.

 

[My Tulpa]

Technically GameCube used GameCube Optical Disk, a format extremely similar to miniDVD but just different enough they didn't have to pay licencing fees. Minidisk was a Sony exclusive magneto-optical format for music.

You're right about everything else though, going with miniDVD style disks was a total kneecap. Worse than cartridge in some ways.

Only a kneecap in terms of AAA 3rd party support.

Something that is irrelevant to the success of Nintendo consoles anyways, so, I don’t think it really matters?

 

[goldenpp72]

It is curious to see the self destructive behavior of people who crave news, rumors, speculation, leaks, only to betray those who deliver that, usually reliably, when something they wanted doesn't pan out. All you're doing is shooting yourself in the foot, just take it in stride and enjoy the ride, or be an immature idiot who revolves your mental state around videogame rumors, whatever.

 

[Raccoon]

which of the five stages of grief have you reached?

I tried to skip to acceptance yesterday, but that was just denial. I am now in depression

@Bosintang is in the anger stage. yeouch!

unfortunately I think anyone trying to figure out how there could be another 2023 device is in the bargaining stage. I know most of you are in it for the fun of speculation and don't actually care but that's where it best fits on the chart. maybe denial? idk

lastly, I suspect that natedrake, having known for the longest, is in the acceptance stage. something something hennessy on the beach