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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

I'm not sure how much that's gonna change with new hardware, though. If your threshold for acceptable resolution and performance is 1080/60 then yes, Drake exclusives will most likely deliver. If the other platforms are going to raise your bar (i. e. 1080p or 60 FPS now look crusty because PC/PS/XB can do 1440p+ or 120 FPS) then Drake may disappoint you after a few years just like the current Switch.

I would be fine with 2K/30 for Nintendo games on a Switch 2. So long as it's a stable 30.
 
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Just caught up with this thread of madness.

I don’t see what the big deal is.

The people in this thread ALREADY discussed that whatever hardware Nintendo was working on that was inside those 2020 devkits had been changed. (I remember an “insider” from Resetera/family saying he heard about development/production issues of the SoC”)

So, the idea of Nintendo scrapping a hardware revision 2 years ago and developing a beefier version (Drake) shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone?

Also, the people in this thread have disagreed about what kind of hardware would act as a “pro” vs “successor”…what is different about this new podcast from DF?

Correct me if I’m wrong, but all I see here is the DF guy and the developer he was talking to having their own speculation on why no new model hasnt been announced/released yet…just like we have. They are both injecting their own opinions on when it HAS to be released to be positioned as a “pro or successor”

No offense, but reading this as “Drake SoC has been scrapped and no new model is coming in 2023”…is bonkers. Why would anyone think that from this?
 
When you look at the typical life cycles of HD consoles, the fact that almost all modern consoles target a holiday release (Switch being the exception even though IIRC it was initially targeting Q4 2016), and the fact that the current model is selling very well six years on, the whole idea that it was definitely certainly happening sooner than later doesn’t add up.
For Nintendo, their pattern suggest a 5-6 year span between hardware releases. Some people count the GameBoy as one long generation, but actually the GameBoy Color had exclusive games so it was really two generations. Sony and Microsoft have been going a bit longer, but I that could be to recoup losses for selling their hardware at a loss at launch.

It'd be weird for Drake to release in 2024 since it's already finalized, unless it was finished very ahead of time

Perhaps waiting for a better manufacturing process to become affordable? I do not see Nintendo going past $399 for the launch price. If Drake needs to be manufactured on 5nm in order to meet the size and performance. Although @Z0m3le seems confident that Drake has already started production. I do wonder if the SOC cost for an OEM like Nintendo might be less of the BOM than we realize. The Switch Launched at $299 but Nvidia had already bein selling their Shield TV with the Tegra X1 at $199 for a while at that point. If Nvidia was able to ship a low volume product like that at $100 cheaper than Switch using the same SOC, perhaps the SOC only accounts for $50-75?
 
You should know that many, if not most of us are doing this because speculation is fun, following hints and breadcrumbs is fun, trying to unravel the secrets of a very secretive industry is fun.

If you're following this because you seem to desperately want new hardware then I suggest taking a break, because coming to this thread every day waiting for hints of an announcement or whatever probably isn't the healthiest thing to do.

You're not wrong. I need to find a way to remove the emotion behind all of this. No use in getting upset over something I cannot change. I need to find a way to be less negative on here and be more constructive in terms of offering something more valuable to the conversation.

I'm sorry that I have caused you and others issues on here. Was never my intent. I struggle with severe depression, anxiety and aspergers and I see gaming as a means to escape. I also have some shit health problems so I'm often times mentally not well.

I'm going to try to be more constructive to the conversation moving forward. Maybe do some personal articles and writeups and delve more into actual topics of interests here. I won't promise no more mistakes or bad jokes from time to time but I'll try to bring some more to the table and perhaps hopefully give some new prospective on some topics.

At the end of the day we are all here because we love Nintendo games and I would like to do better by the community as much as I can.
 
Just caught up with this thread of madness.

I don’t see what the big deal is.

The people in this thread ALREADY discussed that whatever hardware Nintendo was working on that was inside those 2020 devkits had been changed. (I remember an “insider” from Resetera/family saying he heard about development/production issues of the SoC”)

So, the idea of Nintendo scrapping a hardware revision 2 years ago and developing a beefier version (Drake) shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone?

Also, the people in this thread have disagreed about what kind of hardware would act as a “pro” vs “successor”…what is different about this new podcast from DF?

Correct me if I’m wrong, but all I see here is the DF guy and the developer he was talking to having their own speculation on why no new model hasnt been announced/released yet…just like we have. They are both injecting their own opinions on when it HAS to be released to be positioned as a “pro or successor”

No offense, but reading this as “Drake SoC has been scrapped and no new model is coming in 2023”…is bonkers. Why would anyone think that from this?
I agree with all of this, but then Nate followed up with saying that the late 22/ h1 23 hardware he has been reporting on, is now shelved. That's what caused the uproar.
 
It's a bigger jump than what the Xbox One to Xbox one X was. If that's not a successor in all but name, I don't know what is

It’s a successor in all but name and how Nintendo will position it.

First of all, I'm happy to hear that we're going directly on a "Switch 2" and not a Pro.

You’ve only heard people guessing that is the case.

Some people still can’t wrap their heads around the possibility of a power upgrade model releasing after 2022 and still being considered part of the Switch family like OLED was.
 
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Just caught up with this thread of madness.

I don’t see what the big deal is.

The people in this thread ALREADY discussed that whatever hardware Nintendo was working on that was inside those 2020 devkits had been changed. (I remember an “insider” from Resetera/family saying he heard about development/production issues of the SoC”

So, the idea of Nintendo scrapping a hardware revision 2 years ago and developing a beefier version (Drake) shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone?

Also, the people in this thread have disagreed about what kind of hardware would act as a “pro” vs “successor”…what is different about this new podcast from DF?

Correct me if I’m wrong, but all I see here is the DF guy and the developer he was talking to having their own speculation on why no new model has been announced/released yet…just like we have.

No offense, but reading this as “Drake SoC has been scrapped and no new model is coming in 2023”…is bonkers. Why would anyone think that from this?

The issue many are having is that the “scrapping a hardware revision” is being framed as recent - or at least that it’s applying to whatever we assumed was coming in late 2022 / early 2023. At least that’s how Nate’s stated things.

If somebody comes and says this timeline was actually about a device that was scrapped end of last year, and they pivoted to using the same SoC for a successor to hit by mid 2023, then nobody will think it’s a big deal - but that’s yet to happen. And when we consider John/DF’s comments in the past we’re implying a 2023 device was very likely, and he’s heard from developers something only recently that has him no longer expecting a device in 2023, it just doesn’t instill much hope.

Edit: Brief aside, John saying he thinks Nintendo is very nervous about the transition to the next generation sounds so strange. For the first time in a while they’re uncontested in what they deliver - are Nintendo really so averse to doing the same thing but better? Switch 2 feels so obvious it hurts. Or am I just out of touch with how successful such a move would really be?
 
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I agree with all of this, but then Nate followed up with saying that the late 22/ h1 23 hardware he has been reporting on, is now shelved. That's what caused the uproar.

Hm, maybe I skimmed over that post…

I thought his last few posts were basically saying he doesn’t want to confirm anything he’s heard until he’s talked to a few people and is waiting for his video show to talk about it?

If he’s confirmed that the Drake hardware we saw in the 2022 nvidia leak has been scrapped, and we should trust that definitive information and source…why listen to his show?? lol

If that is indeed true and certain, there is nothing he nor any 3rd party game developer can tell us about Nintendo’s plans now.
 
What we really need to know is when was it scrapped? if it was scrapped a year or year and a half ago or 3 months ago makes a big difference
 
For Nintendo, their pattern suggest a 5-6 year span between hardware releases. Some people count the GameBoy as one long generation, but actually the GameBoy Color had exclusive games so it was really two generations. Sony and Microsoft have been going a bit longer, but I that could be to recoup losses for selling their hardware at a loss at launch.
This is their first HD console that isn't a total flop. Except for the Wii U, every HD console had a life cycle of at least 7 years (with the Xbox 360 having a whopping 8 years). HD development has significantly lengthier cycles than SD development. Nintendo isn't gonna rush out a successor because of an arbitrary year count.
 
Hm, maybe I skimmed over that post…

I thought his last few posts were basically saying he doesn’t want to confirm anything he’s heard until he’s talked to a few people and is waiting for his video show to talk about it?

If he’s confirmed that the Drake hardware we saw in the 2022 nvidia leak has been scrapped, and we should trust that definitive information and source…why listen to his show?? lol

If that is indeed true and certain, there is nothing he nor any 3rd party game developer can tell us about Nintendo’s plans now.

That's not at all what he's confirmed.
 
Hm, maybe I skimmed over that post…

I thought his last few posts were basically saying he doesn’t want to confirm anything he’s heard until he’s talked to a few people and is waiting for his video show to talk about it?

If he’s confirmed that the Drake hardware we saw in the 2022 nvidia leak has been scrapped, and we should trust that definitive information and source…why listen to his show?? lol

If that is indeed true and certain, there is nothing he nor any 3rd party game developer can tell us about Nintendo’s plans now.
Look up post 32427 and post 32410.
 
Might be healthy for folks to not focus on Nate so much. He's not an oracle after all, just a person with contacts who might have relevant - though not always recent or clear - tidbits of information. Some kind of uncle, if you will.

Edit: Brief aside, John saying he thinks Nintendo is very nervous about the transition to the next generation sounds so strange. For the first time in a while they’re uncontested in what they deliver - are Nintendo really so averse to doing the same thing but better? Switch 2 feels so obvious it hurts. Or am I just out of touch with how successful such a move would really be?

The way I see this is that the "hybrid" core is here to stay. They might be looking for new "gimmicks" within that hybrid nature, but I kind of assume "hybrid" has supplanted "handheld" and "console".
 
I always thought the Switch Pro rumors were strange, but I still see Nintendo launching new hardware in 2023 (we got OLED and Lite 2 years apart, OLED was 2021) and launching it with Tears of the Kingdom seems the most likely. Its the biggest release in 2023 for Nintendo lol.
 
Hm, maybe I skimmed over that post…

I thought his last few posts were basically saying he doesn’t want to confirm anything he’s heard until he’s talked to a few people and is waiting for his video show to talk about it?

If he’s confirmed that the Drake hardware we saw in the 2022 nvidia leak has been scrapped, and we should trust that definitive information and source…why listen to his show?? lol

If that is indeed true and certain, there is nothing he nor any 3rd party game developer can tell us about Nintendo’s plans now.
It's actually kind of vague what hes confirmed. The late 2022/h1 23 revision which hes been consistent about supporting DLSS and A78 (and by extension has to be Drake) was scrapped.

Honestly to me it sounds like the device is rebranded and delayed. Cause there is no way what will end up being in the next more powerful Nintendo hardware is something other than Drake.
 
If this is your reasoning, then the 'New Nintendo Switch' is even worse. 'New' overlaps with people simply talking about getting a new Switch or differentiating between an old/used system and a brand new one
The idea is that nintendo would phase out the old hardware in favor of the new one. Ideally, beginning the process before drake launches.
If done right, in a relatively short timespan, most consumers looking for a "new" nintendo switch would mostly find drake models.

Also, someone who already owns a console buying a new unit within the same gen isn't that common. Most people who owns the v1/v2 switch didn't upgrade to the OLED model.

A lot of people are also accostummed to the "new nintendo <x>" moniker since Nintendo used it multiple times with the hardware upgraded 3DS.

Used v1/v2/lite/OLED units wouldn't have the "new" logo with lines around it on the product box. If Nintendo wanted, they could adopt that on the backplate and dock as well to make it even easier to differentiate.

among many other things.
Such as?

There's a reason why Apple dropped 'the New iPad' marketing after less than one year and never used it since.
Nintendo isn't Apple. It's totally understandable what Apple did given the fact they release a new iPad nearly every year. The same can't be said about Nintendo. They're not going to release drake followed by an upgrade every 1-2 years. There's no reason to.


The only plausible argument to be made against it is that "new nintendo switch lite" or "new nintendo switch OLED" is a mouthful. But first: so is "new Nintendo 3DS XL" and second: many people assume drake will already come with an upgraded display.

You guys worry too much about the naming scheme. Wii U could've succeeded had the system actually received more heavyweight first party titles early rather than only halfway to late on it's life cycle. It also failed to gather proper 3rd party support, which is something some nintendo fans like Nintendo prime pretend is not that relevant while ignoring how the wii and switch (their top two most successful home consoles atm) were the best ones in terms of third party support.
 
This is their first HD console that isn't a total flop. Except for the Wii U, every HD console had a life cycle of at least 7 years (with the Xbox 360 having a whopping 8 years). HD development has significantly lengthier cycles than SD development. Nintendo isn't gonna rush out a successor because of an arbitrary year count.

The situation isn’t entirely the same with Switch as other HD consoles. Other companies you’re mentioning release their systems when the tech feels very modern, and in the case of the PS4/XBO they still refreshed interest on year 3 of the lifespan.

Switch was a great, novel machine at launch, but it’s become increasingly apparent that it’s giving TV experiences not substantially better than tech from 18 years ago (please don’t argue this point - the device I’m sure is above 360 and but well below XBO), and many games are releasing to criticism around performance. If they wait until 2024 they will continue to ride out a major part of the core audience’s good will. Maybe it won’t matter in the end, but given a revision was deemed necessary at some point not long ago, that tells me Nintendo also thought was important to refresh the core audiences interest.

We don’t know if they cancelled it because they felt it was now unnecessary, or something else, but I’d lean towards the latter. I’d like to believe they pivoted to it being a successor with a long cross generational period a while ago, and we still have 2023 to look forward to it, but my optimism is fleeting
 
The issue many are having is that the “scrapping a hardware revision” is being framed as recent - or at least that it’s applying to whatever we assumed was coming in late 2022 / early 2023. At least that’s how Nate’s stated things.

Oh see, I just read this as 3rd party Switch developers who have been working on the 2020 devkits and have been planning their games to have been released by this year…only found out this year that this new device wasn’t releasing.

I get that the developers Nate and DF John talk to are miffed…but I can’t imagine they have any other detailed information from Nintendo other then the new device didn’t come out in 2021/2022 cause Nintendo informed them the decision to revamp the previous hardware a bit.

I mean, what, our final speculation was 12SM gpu, 8 core cpu, 48 tensor cores, possibly on a 7nm or even smaller node?

If any of those developers confirm that the devkits they had had equivalent hardware to that…I’d be shocked.

Edit: Brief aside, John saying he thinks Nintendo is very nervous about the transition to the next generation sounds so strange. For the first time in a while they’re uncontested in what they deliver - are Nintendo really so averse to doing the same thing but better? Switch 2 feels so obvious it hurts. Or am I just out of touch with how successful such a move would really be?

Eh, this just sounds like a guy who is now certain the next thing Nintendo releases will be positioned as a gen-breaking successor console and speculating how Nintendo would have trouble positioning that in the midst of current huge Switch success/engagement.

Furukawa made a statement this year how their transition to “their next console is a major concern for us”…but I’m positive that was for whatever console that comes out after Switch and breaks away from the Switch family of system and library.

Not Drake. (Or any upgrade model similar to Drake)
 
I wish I knew more about chip production and the contents of the Nvidia leak to understand why some folks are so convinced that Drake must be released soon. From what I’ve gleaned from the thread, it’s due evidence of testing that indicates the chip exists in its “final form” as it would be assembled into an actual device. I’m curious why this couldn’t be just a sample group of test chips and why people are so convinced it means it’s in “full production”. I’m guessing the answer is something to do with the known economies of scale these foundries typically abide by when making these chips but if anyone wants to confirm or elaborate their thinking, I’d be most grateful.

After listening to the DF video, the comments re: 2023 hardware sound like pure speculation on their part. I know they have industry contacts and maybe they can’t or don’t want to say that they have heard definitive information on 2023. But even internally, the discussion sounded like individual opinions rather than a united perspective on the matter.
 
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Edit: Brief aside, John saying he thinks Nintendo is very nervous about the transition to the next generation sounds so strange. For the first time in a while they’re uncontested in what they deliver - are Nintendo really so averse to doing the same thing but better? Switch 2 feels so obvious it hurts. Or am I just out of touch with how successful such a move would really be?

The GameCube was the n64 but better. Flopped.

The WiiU was the Wii but better. Flopped.

The 3DS was the DS but better. Almost flopped. Saved by a huge price cut. Its core feature became an afterthought that even Nintendo stopped using late in its life.

I can understand why they are nervous. A Switch but better isn’t a guaranteed sell if we go by Nintendo’s history with doing such things.

Maybe they realized that people wouldn’t necessarily enthusiastically upgrade via their market research. Perhaps the Drake SOC is still used for a successor, but that successor might have to more of a hook than “Switch but better.”

My read on the situation is that Nintendo wants to ensure the “Switch 2” performs as well as the 3DS did in comparison to the DS, and they also want to make damn sure it doesn’t have a launch as rough as the 3DS.
 
The situation isn’t entirely the same with Switch as other HD consoles. Other companies you’re mentioning release their systems when the tech feels very modern, and in the case of the PS4/XBO they still refreshed interest on year 3 of the lifespan.

Switch was a great, novel machine at launch, but it’s become increasingly apparent that it’s giving TV experiences not substantially better than tech from 18 years ago (please don’t argue this point - the device I’m sure is above 360 and but well below XBO), and many games are releasing to criticism around performance. If they wait until 2024 they will continue to ride out a major part of the core audience’s good will. Maybe it won’t matter in the end, but given a revision was deemed necessary at some point not long ago, that tells me Nintendo also thought was important to refresh the core audiences interest.

We don’t know if they cancelled it because they felt it was now unnecessary, or something else, but I’d lean towards the latter. I’d like to believe they pivoted to it being a successor with a long cross generational period a while ago, and we still have 2023 to look forward to it, but my optimism is fleeting
Sure, I mean I've always said a Q4 2023 release is always possible, but I could also see them look at current hardware and software sales and wait until later (hopefully with even beefier tech). It's a bit of a gamble, maybe, but they're seeing a level of success with the Switch's late years that their consoles never see. I also don't know how many consumers actually care about the tech side of things for Nintendo; random press outlets slamming the Switch's tech aren't necessarily indicative of the general consumer.
 
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If we don’t get new hardware by TotK, can you imagine how much the ‘imagine what could have been done on more powerful hardware’ narrative will take over the chat on the game.

If there were exclusive games being made for this thing, I can’t see devs being happy if they’ve had to sit on the games for so long.
 
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The GameCube was the n64 but better. Flopped.

The WiiU was the Wii but better. Flopped.

The 3DS was the DS but better. Almost flopped. Saved by a huge price cut. Its core feature became an afterthought that even Nintendo stopped using late in its life.

I can understand why they are nervous. A Switch but better isn’t a guaranteed sell if we go by Nintendo’s history with doing such things.

Maybe they realized that people wouldn’t necessarily enthusiastically upgrade via their market research. Perhaps the Drake SOC is still used for a successor, but that successor might have to more of a hook than “Switch but better.”

My read on the situation is that Nintendo wants to ensure the “Switch 2” performs as well as the 3DS did in comparison to the DS, and they also want to make damn sure it doesn’t have a launch as rough as the 3DS.
I disagree with this.

Imo if all Wii U had done (aside from changing the name) was to iterate and improve the motion controls, drop bc and instead just go with powerful, modern off the shelf hardware it would have been much more successful.
 
Dumb articles are fun.




My favorite bit: “As for the Switch 2 and Nintendo’s potential concerns about it, I think if they can avoid “over-Nintendoing” it, it should be fine. What I mean by that is the Wii U was a failure because it was not really a successor to the Wii U, leaning hard on a brand new gamepad gimmick that never panned out nearly as well as the Wii’s motion controls.”

The thing that frustrates me the most is how Nintendo names things...Wii to Wii U where people thought it was just an extra tablet controller for their wii...

Just go with the most obvious choice and call it the Nintendo Switch 2....is it a fancy name? No but it gets the job done and the average consumer will recognize this as the next gen console right away. Don't call it the Super Switch, The New Nintendo Switch, or any other name that will spark confusion if it's next gen hardware or not.

going from the Nintendo Switch to the Nintendo Switch 2 is the obvious answer...even the abbreviations connotates that this is a successor console NS -> NS2

It works wonders with the PlayStation brand PS, PS2, PS3, PS4, PS5.

Xbox is confusing though...Xbox, Xbox 360 (great name), Xbox One (terrible name), Xbox Series S/X (name is meh)
 
That's not at all what he's confirmed.

I was just going by what Hermii said.

Look up post 32427 and post 32410.

Ah, I did read those posts…it just didn’t seem like Nate had any real info about the Drake SoC being scrapped and that absolutely no new hardware is releasing in 2023 anymore.

It's actually kind of vague what hes confirmed. The late 2022/h1 23 revision which hes been consistent about supporting DLSS and A78 (and by extension has to be Drake) was scrapped.

Honestly to me it sounds like the device is rebranded and delayed. Cause there is no way what will end up being in the next more powerful Nintendo hardware is something other than Drake.

Yea, that’s my issue…that all of this is vague. And all of this seems to be based on what they heard 3rd party game developers speculating.

The 2020 devkits having the same specs as the leaked Drake hardware, and 3rd party developers being sat down by Nintendo execs this year and told that they decided to move on from this Drake SoC they have been developing and moving on to something bigger and better! Switch 2 baby! Not pro!…I find very hard to believe all of this happened lol.

I DO believe that what happened is a bunch of miscommunication between developers and gaming journalists/youtubers mixed with heavy speculation.

I am interested to hear Nate’s more definitive info he is trying to nail down, though. Cause so far, we have none of that.
 
I disagree with this.

Imo if all Wii U had done (aside from changing the name) was to iterate and improve the motion controls, drop bc and instead just go with powerful, modern off the shelf hardware it would have been much more successful.
And I respectfully disagree with this. There is no evidence that the casual market that bought the Wii would have upgraded to a “Wii HD.” In fact, the trend with Nintendo has consistently been the opposite. The more powerful successor sells less. The innovative, radical departure sells more. Both from their home and portable consoles.

In fact, Nintendo did all the things you mentioned with the GameCube and they didn’t perform well either. The GC iterated on 3D gaming, had a new name, improved its controller (I will concede this isn’t as impressive as motion controls). Nintendo had already done the “more powerful successor before,” twice actually, SNES to N64, N64 to GameCube, and their sales declined every time.
 
I disagree with this.

Imo if all Wii U had done (aside from changing the name) was to iterate and improve the motion controls, drop bc and instead just go with powerful, modern off the shelf hardware it would have been much more successful.
If the WiiU had a different name it would've even been more successful.

I know it's anecdotal, but I have friends who worked in game retail stores at the time of release and they said hardly anyone even knew the WiiU was a new console. Even some people working the stores assumed it was a tablet add-on for the normal Wii.

Even Reggie said in hindsight the message was muddy around what the WiiU was. I'm sure Nintendo is paying a ton of attention to what to call the new system so as to not have a repeat where people don't realize what it is.
 
Edit: Brief aside, John saying he thinks Nintendo is very nervous about the transition to the next generation sounds so strange. For the first time in a while they’re uncontested in what they deliver - are Nintendo really so averse to doing the same thing but better? Switch 2 feels so obvious it hurts. Or am I just out of touch with how successful such a move would really be?
When listening to it, just sounds like the same sort of speculation we'd see here, as John alludes to previous generational transitions like the 3DS and Wii U.
I think Nintendo itself is probably likely very nervous about this transition because let's face it their last few transitions have not gone well...
I personally disagree that they would be 'nervous', or at least I wouldn't project some kind of anxiety onto their situation. They (Nintendo) have gone on record saying the transition to next gen was a major focus and BC is easier than ever (funnily enough both of those statements by them have been mistranslated and misconstrued), frequently bringing up their unified account system.

I've always believed that people are more willing to purchase new mobile device upgrades or own multiple of them. I have distinct childhood memories of friends playing with GBA SPs and DSs in the same room, or 3DSs and DSs in high school, frequently playing the same games. So I am personally more confident that a Switch 2 could be a success especially with enhanced BC.
 
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I disagree with this.

Imo if all Wii U had done (aside from changing the name) was to iterate and improve the motion controls, drop bc and instead just go with powerful, modern off the shelf hardware it would have been much more successful.

Objectively, a Wii HD console, capable of playing any ps360 port, that also provides a new gameplay interface option…is absolutely better than just the Wii.

That’s all the Wii U was.
 
Drake can definitely run all the next gen games that will come out, even with 4 TFLOPS (if we get 5 nm). Considering absolutely worst case scenarios for the home consoles (native 1080p for 30 FPS), Drake can still use DLSS to upscale from 540p and end up with similar processing budgets available. Rendering games at 540p and native 1080p are very different things.
I'm not worried about the GPU, when the x series s is the LCD *of the current gen atm. It's the CPU (and to some extent RAM bandwidth) I'm more worried about. A 3 TFLOPs Drake with DLSS is fine, though I wonder if AMD will release any software updates for their own version of DLSS for x series and PS5.
 
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When listening to it, just sounds like the same sort of speculation we'd see here, as John alludes to previous generational transitions like the 3DS and Wii U.
Right, exactly. Nobody at DF knows what Nintendo execs think about new hardware and in this case, they weren't claiming to either. So taking that as a point of discussion is silly. If you yourself are worried about the name or performance of a successor, whatever, discuss away, but don't project it onto Nintendo.
 
If the WiiU had a different name it would've even been more successful.

I know it's anecdotal, but I have friends who worked in game retail stores at the time of release and they said hardly anyone even knew the WiiU was a new console. Even some people working the stores assumed it was a tablet add-on for the normal Wii.

Even Reggie said in hindsight the message was muddy around what the WiiU was. I'm sure Nintendo is paying a ton of attention to what to call the new system so as to not have a repeat where people don't realize what it is.
A different name, stronger launch, and a clear marketing campaign would have probably made it sell 30-40 million. And that’s a very bullish and optimistic number. And even that would have been a failure in comparison to the Wii’s massive sales.

As I mentioned in an earlier comment, there isn’t much evidence that customers they picked up from their blue ocean strategy would have bought the successor to the Wii. In fact, those customers were likely lost to mobile games. And we do know that the massive install base from the Wii didn’t transition to WiiU. Regardless of how terrible the marketing was.

Now, they are in a far better position with Switch since I think their customer demographics are much better. Lots of lapsed gamers, as well as core gamers, own a Switch. These are ideal people you can sell a successor to.
 
If the WiiU had a different name it would've even been more successful.

lol no.

The n64 and GameCube also wouldn’t have sold better with different names.

I know it's anecdotal, but I have friends who worked in game retail stores at the time of release and they said hardly anyone even knew the WiiU was a new console. Even some people working the stores assumed it was a tablet add-on for the normal Wii.

Even Reggie said in hindsight the message was muddy around what the WiiU was. I'm sure Nintendo is paying a ton of attention to what to call the new system so as to not have a repeat where people don't realize what it is.

I’ve never believed this argument at all.

People love to make up reasons why each successive traditional home console from Nintendo sells less than the previous one…and most of them are bullshit reasons. They’ve been doing this since the snes.

The “parents stumbling around toy stores not buying Wii U’s because they didn’t think it was any different from the Wii” is such a silly excuse (no offense, I’m sure your friends in retail argue this to you though)

To imagine these same people buying Mario Kart 8 in stores and sticking them in their Wii machine and calling Nintendo support…I don’t believe this ever happened.

People absolutely knew you needed to buy a Wii U to play any Nintendo game from 2012-2016, come on.
 
lol no.

The n64 and GameCube also wouldn’t have sold better with different names.



I’ve never believed this argument at all.

People love to make up reasons why each successive traditional home console from Nintendo sells less than the previous one…and most of them are bullshit reasons. They’ve been doing this since the snes.

The “parents stumbling around toy stores not buying Wii U’s because they didn’t think it was any different from the Wii” is such a silly excuse (no offense, I’m sure your friends in retail argue this to you though)

To imagine these same people buying Mario Kart 8 in stores and sticking them in their Wii machine and calling Nintendo support…I don’t believe this ever happened.

People absolutely knew you needed to buy a Wii U to play any Nintendo game from 2012-2016, come on.
You really believe zero people were confused by the Wii U branding? Even Iwata himself commented on it:

"Some have the misunderstanding that Wii U is just Wii with a pad for games, and others even consider Wii U GamePad as a peripheral device connectable to Wii," Nintendo's Satoru Iwata said during an earnings briefing. "We feel deeply responsible for not having tried hard enough to have consumers understand the product."
 
You really believe zero people were confused by the Wii U branding? Even Iwata himself commented on it:

"Some have the misunderstanding that Wii U is just Wii with a pad for games, and others even consider Wii U GamePad as a peripheral device connectable to Wii," Nintendo's Satoru Iwata said during an earnings briefing. "We feel deeply responsible for not having tried hard enough to have consumers understand the product."

There’s no reasoning with this guy, even with quotes or facts. He genuinely believes his opinion is fact and any other opinion is completely false. Half the stuff he states usually turns out wrong or has no factual bases which just makes it even more comical.
 
lol no.

The n64 and GameCube also wouldn’t have sold better with different names.



I’ve never believed this argument at all.

People love to make up reasons why each successive traditional home console from Nintendo sells less than the previous one…and most of them are bullshit reasons. They’ve been doing this since the snes.

The “parents stumbling around toy stores not buying Wii U’s because they didn’t think it was any different from the Wii” is such a silly excuse (no offense, I’m sure your friends in retail argue this to you though)

To imagine these same people buying Mario Kart 8 in stores and sticking them in their Wii machine and calling Nintendo support…I don’t believe this ever happened.

People absolutely knew you needed to buy a Wii U to play any Nintendo game from 2012-2016, come on.
The stumbling parents thing does sound a bit silly, yeah, but that's not what was relayed to me. They said employees didn't even realize it was a new, separate HD system, because (according to them so again, anecdotal) the messaging the retailers got from Nintendo was that bad.

The stumbling parents issue would typically be solved by the employees informing them of what they were or were not purchasing. But if the employees aren't even fully informed of the product then what?

Whether everything I'm saying is bs or not, Nintendo is likely very aware of the possibility of muddying the messaging if the new Switch is not very carefully marketed.
 
The GameCube was the n64 but better. Flopped.

The WiiU was the Wii but better. Flopped.

The 3DS was the DS but better. Almost flopped. Saved by a huge price cut. Its core feature became an afterthought that even Nintendo stopped using late in its life.

I can understand why they are nervous. A Switch but better isn’t a guaranteed sell if we go by Nintendo’s history with doing such things.

Maybe they realized that people wouldn’t necessarily enthusiastically upgrade via their market research. Perhaps the Drake SOC is still used for a successor, but that successor might have to more of a hook than “Switch but better.”

My read on the situation is that Nintendo wants to ensure the “Switch 2” performs as well as the 3DS did in comparison to the DS, and they also want to make damn sure it doesn’t have a launch as rough as the 3DS.

But those didn't flop because they were the previous consoles but better.

GameCube flopped because it didn't have that huge launch title that N64 had; Luigi Mansion is great but it wasn't a Mario 64 calibur title, and Pikmin though released very close to the launch of GameCube was a new IP and still very niche, Super Smash Bros was still a new series and didn't have the build up like it does today. It also was competing against the PS2 which had a DVD drive.

The Wii U - Terrible name, horrible marketing, Nintendo Land and NSMBU while great games were not hyped at all. The Wii launched with Wii Sports and Twilight Princess, both titles that were hyped (Wii Sports being free) and the hype of the WiiShop.

3DS - This should have launched Holiday 2011 when there were games ready, all the launch games were 3rd party ports and the one game that was hyped (Ocarina of Time 3D) didn't launch until June 2011, 4 months after the launch.
 
A different name, stronger launch, and a clear marketing campaign would have probably made it sell 30-40 million.

I strongly disagree.

There is no way a traditional home console from Nintendo in a world where cheap, pc gaming consoles (Xbox/ps) exist would sell any better than the $99 GameCube did.

Too many Nintendo gamers are perfectly fine getting their Nintendo gaming fix on Nintendo handhelds.

The Switch isn’t so successful because of its name or it’s clear marketing or that it sold/launched better in March/April than the Wii U did Nov/Dec (it didn’t).

The Switch is so successful because it’s a home console that also portable. And of course, because there is no other Nintendo gaming device competing with it anymore.
 
What if the Nintendo/developer briefings went something like this:

2021

Devs: "Hey Nintendo what's talking so long on this mid-gen refresh? This is like the third year you've told investors you're in the middle of the gen! Also this device is kinda dummy thicc"

Nintendo: "We're stretching it out, just keep working on it"

Devs: "Yeah, but it's almost 2022, when are you gonn-"

Nintendo: "COVID, Please understand".

2022

Devs: "Hey, it's 2022 now...pandemic has been "over" for a while now...any update? Also you've stopped saying "middle of the lifecycle" for a while now, what gives? Is there something you're not telling us? Also our games are done and ready to go"

Nintendo: "We regret to inform you that we have canceled this mid-gen refresh."

Devs: "What?! After 2 years? What are we supposed to do with our dev kits? Do you want them back?"

Nintendo: "Nah, you can keep them as an end of year gift. And hey it's the end of the year anyway! We'll tell you why when we pick them up say...oh I don't know, early next year!"

Devs: "Wha-"

Nintendo: Sayounara!

2023

Nintendo going sicko mode once manufacturing starts

Devs: "Alright, enough is enough. Is this thing coming out or did you cancel it? What do we do with these old dev kits!"

Nintendo: "Surprise! We canceled the revision...and promoted it to a new generation! Happy New Years! Now which one of you has something ready to show? We've got a teaser soon with a full presentation in March for a release in...spring, so chop chop on those trailers!"
 
They don't have to repeat the confusing New name to have an excuse to bundle whatever they want together. They include several systems in the 3DS total that are not called 3DS.

He was trying to get plenty of confirmation before going public with it. Someone else going public with similar information changed the equation.
So, he had info, but couldn’t confirm any of the info or tell us any of the info, but when someone else put their name on it and gave people the info, then he says he had info but wasn’t ready to release it.

😵‍💫
 
0
I'm not worried about the GPU, when the x series s is the LCD if the current gen atm. It's the CPU (and to some extent RAM bandwidth) I'm more worried about. A 3 TFLOPs Drake with DLSS is fine, though I wonder if AMD will release any software updates for their own version of DLSS for x series and PS5.
RAM bandwidth is only an issue if they end up targetting native 1080p and beyond with demanding software, later down the line. Given how they handled the Switch already, Nintendo is perfectly willing to slap in the equivalent to DLSS Performance presets as long as it runs the port, internal 540p is unlikely to saturate that. The CPU in the other hand... When clocked decently, it has comparable IPC to the Ryzen CPUs on the consoles so, I think it'll hold up well.
 
I don't think it's a good idea to compare Switch "2" with GC, WiiU or 3DS.
The situation that Nintendo finds itself in at the moment is different.
In GC, although they don't like to admit it, Nintendo had already failed with the N64, 3x less sales than a newcomer in the market, and in Japan it was almost behind the Saturn. Not only that, but despite the GC being a great console, good controller, powerful, and even a cool name and start animation, it doesn't change the fact that for the mindset at the time the PS2 was much cooler and had all the hype.
WiiU had a bad name, and it arrived VERY late, all the hype of the Wii had already passed and the console was already treated like a toy, the casual public had already dissipated to smartphones, and it was very expensive for the hardware it presented, the CPU was even weaker than that of the X360.
3DS even got some things right, and even for that reason it wasn't a failure like the others, but it had a ginmick that few were interested in, and although it really was a more powerful DS, you can't say that it had good hardware for the time .
I think that in the end it all boils down to hype, how much you can make your console look cool to the masses, in that sense the Switch was a Nintendo masterclass, even though it had several points inferior to the competitors, it still managed to sell itself for the proposal and recently passed PS4 sales.
 
Please read this staff post before posting.

Furthermore, according to this follow-up post, all off-topic chat will be moderated.
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