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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

What I believe:
  • Either the devkits developers have now are split into two different models with different SoCs (the latter being the more powerful drake) or, they're both drake but with specs that differ beyond system memory compared to the upcoming consumer model.
  • Nintendo doesn't believe they'll repeat the 2017 success with just zelda and wants to wait out for at the very least 2-3 more heavyweight first party titles to launch drake with. Specially considering the people who already have a switch might just buy only the game since their current hardware can run it. I don't think the WiiU is an argument here considering BOTW released on it back when the console was at the end of it's lifecycle, would cost someone the same as a switch but not come with all the advantages and even run the game worse. Not only that, but nearly no one had a WiiU. The switch situation is different, everyone and their mother owns a switch, if the game runs well enough on it, people aren't going to bother. It's always about launch software, until it isn't. WiiU had nintendoland and ZombiU as launch exclusives, too weak. Wii had a system seller that came with the console - wii sports. The Gamecube only had like Luigi's mansion, again, not enough. The 3DS started weak but managed to pull off in terms of software in the following years, the Gamecube could've done it considering how prime came a year later and they also had windwaker and other bangers soon after launch, but I think it didn't because of how strong the Sony competition was.
  • They already had a name for drake for months, it's the New Nintendo Switch™. Super nintendo switch, nintendo switch advance, nintendo switch <something> would all be bad considering how they can lead to worse search engine results or not translate well into acronyms (eg: SNS - Super nintendo switch) although there is an issue with this, I still think "New Nintendo Switch" would be better solely because of how straightforward it is and how search results are more promising. Plus, they can get away with bundling the console within the same sales group to inflate numbers.
  • They are expecting a stagnation in sales this 2023.
 
That was mostly a bad joke, but wouldn't a new model like drake generate less margin than the old ones ?
probably not something we could know until teardowns happen

I’m just here wondering how devkits supposedly went from 2x OG Switch to 10x CPU and 4x GPU

Seems like a large change
unicorn-magic.gif


which is funny because 1536 gpu cores is 6x the number of cores in the switch
 
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They already had a name for drake for months, it's the New Nintendo Switch™. Super nintendo switch, nintendo switch advance, nintendo switch <something> would all be bad considering how they can lead to worse search engine results or not translate well into acronyms (eg: SNS - Super nintendo switch) although there is an issue with this, I still think "New Nintendo Switch" would be better solely because of how straightforward it is and how search results are more promising. Plus, they can get away with bundling the console within the same sales group to inflate numbers.
If this is your reasoning, then the 'New Nintendo Switch' is even worse. 'New' overlaps with people simply talking about getting a new Switch or differentiating between an old/used system and a brand new one, among many other things.

There's a reason why Apple dropped 'the New iPad' marketing after less than one year and never used it since.
 
I'll hold answering that for a future episode, as what I have planned (if things come together as I envision & I'm given permission to share the details) will answer the majority of questions asked here.

Playing with fire by teasing something so meaty.

Even if it does have stipulations - ones that will be conveniently ignored in the future should you fail to meet someone's (surely reasonable lol) expectations.

Love it.
 
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Our Switch Pro journey (including overlaps):
  • That Foxconn 'leak' 6 years ago detailing a much more powerful separate device, possibly a devkit, probably nothing
  • The 2019 model 'for enthusiasts' which ended up being the v2 Mariko refresh
  • The Aula datamine detailing a Mariko Switch with support for a 4K UHD Realtek chip (OLED model, it does use the Realtek chip but disables 4K output)
  • The 2021 Switch Pro reported by Bloomberg (ended up being the OLED model conflated with 4K devkits that may or may not have been Drake)
  • T239 / Drake detailed in the Nvidia data breach which is evidently a more powerful next-gen system with DLSS and RT that we believed to be the same device reported by Mochizuki and Kharif in the Fall 2021 report but idk anymore. Still most likely candidate for Switch 2 in 2023-2024.
  • The mid-gen refresh John at Digital Foundry spoke to developers about that was shelved. Mariko Pro? Drake? (Dane?) Something else? I don't know.
  • Some other 2023 revision with 4K and DLSS that may or not may not have been Drake that was shelved

Anything I miss?
 
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I'll hold answering that for a future episode, as what I have planned (if things come together as I envision & I'm given permission to share the details) will answer the majority of questions asked here.

I hope you have something that can ease the pain around here. It's been a pretty miserable few years waiting for new hardware since so many of us thought a Pro model was "around the corner" for 4 years or so now (at least I did). I stopped playing Switch altogether as I find the experience just to antiquated for my liking and I absolutely love Nintendo's IP so it's just been a huge disappointment.

I never thought my expectations were too high. I never expected 4K/60 gaming from Nintendo and personally would even be satisfied with 2K/30 (stable framerate) from the big Nintendo games on next gen. Hell we're not even getting stable 1080p/30 and often times not even a stable 720p/30 from Nintendo these days on Switch with certain games. Having just played Xenoblade Chronicles 2, Monster Hunter Stories 2, etc on Switch, I just can't do it anymore. Those games ran piss poor and looked muddy as can be. I saw Monster Hunter Stories 2 in 4K/120 on a PC and it was like an entirely different game. Like watching an anime or something.

It's just really time to move on even if Nintendo themselves don't want to. :(
 
Perfect. You were the primary obstacle to convince.
Hey Nate, just wondering about the switch 2, why did you wait to comment on it until Digital Foundry said something? Were you afraid of the backlash or did you not have the info?
 
I mean, you are right. However, Bloomberg article from Mochizuki about the 11 developers in possession of Switch 4k devkits goes back to September 2021 and their article about a 4k-ready console goes back to August 2020.

Can it be that some developers had an almost three year headstart compared to others? It's a genuine question.
At some of the earlier stages, there's probably little meaningful development going on, but generally, only select, handpicked developers are going to be working with unannounced hardware.
Maybe this was already discussed and/or might come across as a really stupid question but, please bear with me. Could the next Nintendo device be streaming-only?

Obviously, there has been a lot of discussion about industry insiders tidbits, leaks and ultimately how Drake - or rather T239 - could fit the bill for a new power-efficient Nintendo handheld. But what if we were wrong all along and that T239 was never supposed to be the foundation of a end-user device but rather the heart of a server appliance for a new streaming platform that would be able to run both old and new Switch games natively?

Is there any credibility to that?

It doesn't contradict the need for devkits as developers would still have to build games for the platform. It also means that the chip wouldn't have to be produced in the tens of millions as it would only be required to power a few thousand servers across the world. That does seem a bit non-sensical considering cost-efficiency but maybe Nvidia has other plans for the chip. On the other hand it could explain the lack of evidence on the actual production of the chip, since it's would be much lower scale and much more confidential than an end-user device. It also opens the door to a much larger and power-hungry chip than expected. It doesn't refute rumors about a 1080p screen for the actual streaming client device.

As for Nintendo, that would come with all the usual streaming incentives. Subscription model, complete ownership of the software, skipping retail channels, high-margins on a dumb streaming console.

Obviously, that would be the real monkey paw. The worst-case scenario as far as I'm concerned. So does that sound completely out of the question?
Cloud streaming has fairly dubious economics in general, but one would also expect something beefier if they were going that route. The chip is bigger than expected, but not that big.
 
I'll hold answering that for a future episode, as what I have planned (if things come together as I envision & I'm given permission to share the details) will answer the majority of questions asked here.
I am curious to know what reasoning your sources have with wanting you to either withhold information or waiting to a specific time? Its not like they are going to be named right?
 
One of the digital foundry guys said it in the now infamous episode. First time I’ve ever heard twice as powerful. Don’t know what info he was basing this off of.
He was speculating based on the Jetson Nano and wasn't referring to any specific devkit.
 
I am curious to know what reasoning your sources have with wanting you to either withhold information or waiting to a specific time? Its not like they are going to be named right?
If they don't feel comfortable with having information go public, I honor their request. Their reasons being whatever they may be.
 
I hope you have something that can ease the pain around here. It's been a pretty miserable few years waiting for new hardware since so many of us thought a Pro model was "around the corner" for 4 years or so now (at least I did). I stopped playing Switch altogether as I find the experience just to antiquated for my liking and I absolutely love Nintendo's IP so it's just been a huge disappointment.

I never thought my expectations were too high. I never expected 4K/60 gaming from Nintendo and personally would even be satisfied with 2K/30 (stable framerate) from the big Nintendo games on next gen. Hell we're not even getting stable 1080p/30 and often times not even a stable 720p/30 from Nintendo these days on Switch with certain games. Having just played Xenoblade Chronicles 2, Monster Hunter Stories 2, etc on Switch, I just can't do it anymore. Those games ran piss poor and looked muddy as can be. I saw Monster Hunter Stories 2 in 4K/120 on a PC and it was like an entirely different game. Like watching an anime or something.

It's just really time to move on even if Nintendo themselves don't want to. :(
Good grief… this is like me shelving the N64 because I heard about this thing called the Dolphin in 1999…

I’m sorry but you worked yourself. Nobody should have planned for a “pro model” based off rumors. And nobody should have clung onto hope for four years. That’s on you.

I’m not going to get too into the weeds but the current hardware has been fine this entire time. There are hundreds of games that have zero issues. Nintendo first party games are shining examples of graphics and performance in the vast majority of cases. There are a few games that are super ambitious and have some hiccups but nothing that ruins the experience. Even monolith soft have gotten their games to actually look better over time (Xenoblade 3 doesn’t look anywhere near as bad as 2 for example).

Personally, I’m glad I still used my system (even upgraded to the OLED). You’re going to drive yourself crazy waiting for the “perfect” release because quite frankly that’s not how tech works. There is always something better around the corner. Just play and enjoy what you have.
 
he did say he had some heavy info that need to be confirmed even before DF

This to me says he had info, but wasn't ready to share it, which is why I asked why he waited until DF said something
 
Realistically, it feels like most of the confusion and conflicting information can be attributed to Nintendo being pretty leak-resistant, leading to a giant game of telephone.

The Nvidia leak and subsequent Linux kernel information still indicates the new device is not too far out. This latest news puts to bed the confusion around whether or not it's a revision or a successor - it's a successor - and it seems like it has been conflated with a now-cancelled revision by several people. This is not unlike what happened with the OLED model.

I think Nate probably has a few different , he pieces together his narrative from disparate pieces of information, but if the information is vague or incomplete this can lead to a flawed narrative. I find it a little hard to believe a mid-gen refresh was ever planned for 2023; however, if he hears a device was planned for 2023 and also hears a mid-gen device was planned, possibly for 2022, then it's not unreasonable to assume it's the same device and is planned for 2022/23. (This is meant to be an example of the kind of mixed messaging that can lead to inaccurate conclusions, not trying to say this is exactly what happened.)

Of course, this could be wrong. The device may not come out in 2023. It feels unlikely a Drake-powered successor will come out later than early 2024 based on the timeline we know, but it's not impossible. Similarly, it feels unlikely that it is the Drake-powered device which has been canceled; but again, not impossible.
 
I hope you have something that can ease the pain around here. It's been a pretty miserable few years waiting for new hardware since so many of us thought a Pro model was "around the corner" for 4 years or so now (at least I did). I stopped playing Switch altogether as I find the experience just to antiquated for my liking and I absolutely love Nintendo's IP so it's just been a huge disappointment.

I never thought my expectations were too high. I never expected 4K/60 gaming from Nintendo and personally would even be satisfied with 2K/30 (stable framerate) from the big Nintendo games on next gen. Hell we're not even getting stable 1080p/30 and often times not even a stable 720p/30 from Nintendo these days on Switch with certain games. Having just played Xenoblade Chronicles 2, Monster Hunter Stories 2, etc on Switch, I just can't do it anymore. Those games ran piss poor and looked muddy as can be. I saw Monster Hunter Stories 2 in 4K/120 on a PC and it was like an entirely different game. Like watching an anime or something.

It's just really time to move on even if Nintendo themselves don't want to. :(
You should know that many, if not most of us are doing this because speculation is fun, following hints and breadcrumbs is fun, trying to unravel the secrets of a very secretive industry is fun.

If you're following this because you seem to desperately want new hardware then I suggest taking a break, because coming to this thread every day waiting for hints of an announcement or whatever probably isn't the healthiest thing to do.
 
You should know that many, if not most of us are doing this because speculation is fun, following hints and breadcrumbs is fun, trying to unravel the secrets of a very secretive industry is fun.

If you're following this because you seem to desperately want new hardware then I suggest taking a break, because coming to this thread every day waiting for hints of an announcement or whatever probably isn't the healthiest thing to do.
We’re privy to a lot of info but this thread isn’t going to be the place where new hardware is getting revealed lol. Just adding onto the points you’ve already made. Wholly agree that people expecting that should disconnect and play some games until Nintendo officially announced anything.
 
I'll hold answering that for a future episode, as what I have planned (if things come together as I envision & I'm given permission to share the details) will answer the majority of questions asked here.
Most of the current confusion is a result of you popping into this thread and making seemingly contradictory statements:

1. The early 2023 DLSS-capable device on which you've been reporting is shelved.
2. The aforementioned device is NOT Drake, and Drake is still being used for a future device.

If you want to wait until you can record a podcast episode several weeks from now to go into detail about this new information you have, that's fine, but I think the least you can do before that point is provide some degree of clarity on the confusion you've caused by these statements that, frankly, make no sense.
 
I hope you have something that can ease the pain around here. It's been a pretty miserable few years waiting for new hardware since so many of us thought a Pro model was "around the corner" for 4 years or so now (at least I did). I stopped playing Switch altogether as I find the experience just to antiquated for my liking and I absolutely love Nintendo's IP so it's just been a huge disappointment.

I never thought my expectations were too high. I never expected 4K/60 gaming from Nintendo and personally would even be satisfied with 2K/30 (stable framerate) from the big Nintendo games on next gen. Hell we're not even getting stable 1080p/30 and often times not even a stable 720p/30 from Nintendo these days on Switch with certain games. Having just played Xenoblade Chronicles 2, Monster Hunter Stories 2, etc on Switch, I just can't do it anymore. Those games ran piss poor and looked muddy as can be. I saw Monster Hunter Stories 2 in 4K/120 on a PC and it was like an entirely different game. Like watching an anime or something.

It's just really time to move on even if Nintendo themselves don't want to. :(
If performance and resolution are as important as the bolded implies, you're probably better off switching to another platform as your primary.
 
Our Switch Pro journey (including overlaps):
  • That Foxconn 'leak' 6 years ago detailing a much more powerful separate device, possibly a devkit, probably nothing
  • The 2019 model 'for enthusiasts' which ended up being the v2 Mariko refresh
  • The Aula datamine detailing a Mariko Switch with support for a 4K UHD Realtek chip (OLED model, it does use the Realtek chip but disables 4K output)
  • The 2021 Switch Pro reported by Bloomberg (ended up being the OLED model conflated with 4K devkits that may or may not have been Drake)
  • T239 / Drake detailed in the Nvidia data breach which is evidently a more powerful next-gen system with DLSS and RT that we believed to be the same device reported by Mochizuki and Kharif in the Fall 2021 report but idk anymore. Still most likely candidate for Switch 2 in 2023-2024.
  • The mid-gen refresh John at Digital Foundry spoke to developers about that was shelved. Mariko Pro? Drake? (Dane?) Something else? I don't know.
  • Some other 2023 revision with 4K and DLSS that may or not may not have been Drake that was shelved

Anything I miss?
Digital Foundry has been consistent about what they think is the difference between a mid-gen refresh and a successor. if they're speaking of a "mid-gen refresh" it's most definitely not Drake. they would call that a proper successor
 
Seems to be a lot of chatter going on about this DF video, so are we thinking

  • Revision console was due 2022/2023, this has been cancelled
  • Drake is actually being prepped for a Switch successor, but this might now mean no new hardware till at least 2024
 
We’re privy to a lot of info but this thread isn’t going to be the place where new hardware is getting revealed lol. Just adding onto the points you’ve already made. Wholly agree that people expecting that should disconnect and play some games until Nintendo officially announced anything.
To add to this, but even after it is revealed, people are still going to be in this thread speculating more about said revealed hardware. It doesn’t end when it’s revealed right away lol
 
If performance and resolution are as important as the bolded implies, you're probably better off switching to another platform as your primary.

I'm a HUGE fan of Nintendo's IP. I have other consoles for other games. I'll still play TOTK next year. I'm just playing less Switch these days and skipping a lot of games that have a lot of performance issues being reported.
 
I’m not going to get too into the weeds but the current hardware has been fine this entire time. There are hundreds of games that have zero issues. Nintendo first party games are shining examples of graphics and performance in the vast majority of cases. There are a few games that are super ambitious and have some hiccups but nothing that ruins the experience. Even monolith soft have gotten their games to actually look better over time (Xenoblade 3 doesn’t look anywhere near as bad as 2 for example).
As someone who is very much a sucker for bleeding edge gaming tech I am in agreement. We are a long ways from the Wii era of Nintendo games stuck in 480p (and the Wii specifically has poor 480p output with a forced blur filter) and scaling terribly to the 1080p LCD TVs of the time.

The reasons Nintendo has 'gotten' away with Switch visuals for the last six years are partly diminishing returns, partly because 720p-1080p scales better on the more capable television sets of today, partly because of different expectations for mobile devices, and partly because of their art design. (Lot of partlys)

The most popular mass market games like Smash Ultimate and Mario Kart run silky smooth and look great, their biggest titles like BotW and Xeno 3 trade blows artwise with some of the best looking titles in recent years despite running at 1/5 the pixel count and 1/2 the framerate. I suppose they lucked out and/or made a smart decision to use the available Tegra X1 that exceeds the performance of the Wii U and gave them an acceptable floor for creating great looking HD games. As for the games with serious performance issues (and I mean serious, not just the occassional frame drop here and there) I just don't buy them, same as I would for any other platform.

Ultimately I'm not gonna tell someone how to personally feel about the fidelity of these games. If 900p 30 is unplayable for someone, that's fine (my first recommendation though, would be to calibrate their TV/monitor. Seriously, it can make a difference. Or get something like an mClassic). But the Switch hits that acceptable bar of games looking good enough that I would consider some titles like Dread, Xeno 3, BotW, Kirby actual eye candy even as I sit here with my RTX 2070 super and whatnot.

I know why people want a successor device soon but I don't relate to the desperation. Ever since the data breach I've just been waiting patiently for this DLSS + RT equipped device to come out. My main reason for being in this thread is to see all the puzzle pieces, it's been fun.

Digital Foundry has been consistent about what they think is the difference between a mid-gen refresh and a successor. if they're speaking of a "mid-gen refresh" it's most definitely not Drake. they would call that a proper successor
That is my thinking, I was being flippant. I'm aware in the same podcast they postulated T239 could be in the successor device.
 
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Seems to be a lot of chatter going on about this DF video, so are we thinking

  • Revision console was due 2022/2023, this has been cancelled
  • Drake is actually being prepped for a Switch successor, but this might now mean no new hardware till at least 2024
nah. DF never said the non-drake revision was 2022/203. they never gave a date. two of them think it's 2024, but they aren't basing this on hard evidence, just their own speculation
 
I'm a HUGE fan of Nintendo's IP. I have other consoles for other games. I'll still play TOTK next year. I'm just playing less Switch these days and skipping a lot of games that have a lot of performance issues being reported.
I'm not sure how much that's gonna change with new hardware, though. If your threshold for acceptable resolution and performance is 1080/60 then yes, Drake exclusives will most likely deliver. If the other platforms are going to raise your bar (i. e. 1080p or 60 FPS now look crusty because PC/PS/XB can do 1440p+ or 120 FPS) then Drake may disappoint you after a few years just like the current Switch.
 
[*]They already had a name for drake for months, it's the New Nintendo Switch™. Super nintendo switch, nintendo switch advance, nintendo switch <something> would all be bad considering how they can lead to worse search engine results or not translate well into acronyms (eg: SNS - Super nintendo switch) although there is an issue with this, I still think "New Nintendo Switch" would be better solely because of how straightforward it is and how search results are more promising. Plus, they can get away with bundling the console within the same sales group to inflate numbers.
They don't have to repeat the confusing New name to have an excuse to bundle whatever they want together. They include several systems in the 3DS total that are not called 3DS.
This to me says he had info, but wasn't ready to share it, which is why I asked why he waited until DF said something
He was trying to get plenty of confirmation before going public with it. Someone else going public with similar information changed the equation.
 
I'm not sure how much that's gonna change with new hardware, though. If your threshold for acceptable resolution and performance is 1080/60 then yes, Drake exclusives will most likely deliver. If the other platforms are going to raise your bar (i. e. 1080p or 60 FPS now look crusty because PC/PS/XB can do 1440p+ or 120 FPS) then Drake may disappoint you after a few years just like the current Switch.
We're gonna start seeing more PS5/X series games at 30fps too, and Perhaps at least than 4k resolutions. Hopefully it shouldn't be too much of an issue for Drake. Especially if they are CPU heavy. But I guess some games are inevitable to not be on Drake. But here's hoping there's far more games compatible than not.
 
Dumb articles are fun.




My favorite bit: “As for the Switch 2 and Nintendo’s potential concerns about it, I think if they can avoid “over-Nintendoing” it, it should be fine. What I mean by that is the Wii U was a failure because it was not really a successor to the Wii U, leaning hard on a brand new gamepad gimmick that never panned out nearly as well as the Wii’s motion controls.”
 
I don't know, I honestly thought a Switch 2 in 2023 with Zelda was a slam dunk obvious gimme, but it looks like Nintendo thought differently, it looks like Zelda was indeed meant for the current Switch (maybe with the "Pro" version being the "lead" version), and the Switch 2, whenever it launches (but presumably after TOTK and post-2023) will be launching with something else instead. 3D Mario? Prime 4?
A May 2023 release date only really seems natural if you’re following the gossip columns on this thing.

When you look at the typical life cycles of HD consoles, the fact that almost all modern consoles target a holiday release (Switch being the exception even though IIRC it was initially targeting Q4 2016), and the fact that the current model is selling very well six years on, the whole idea that it was definitely certainly happening sooner than later doesn’t add up.

Now, it could, nothing is really stopping Nintendo from doing what they want. But they could easily coast another year or so on their current trajectory.
 
We're gonna start seeing more PS5/X series games at 30fps too, and Perhaps at least than 4k resolutions. Hopefully it shouldn't be too much of an issue for Drake. Especially if they are CPU heavy. But I guess some games are inevitable to not be on Drake. But here's hoping there's far more games compatible than not.
Drake can definitely run all the next gen games that will come out, even with 4 TFLOPS (if we get 5 nm). Considering absolutely worst case scenarios for the home consoles (native 1080p for 30 FPS), Drake can still use DLSS to upscale from 540p and end up with similar processing budgets available. Rendering games at 540p and native 1080p are very different things.
 
It'd be weird for Drake to release in 2024 since it's already finalized, unless it was finished very ahead of time so now they'll sit on it until the time they had planned to release it, but I find that to be unlikely.
 
They only cancelled the pro because they have a NEWER and MORE BETTER switch to replace it!
 
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