Im sure you can still find traces of N64 code in there, if you look hard enough.
Just like you probably can find traces of UE1 in UE5 if you look hard enough.
edit: my point is, nothing is truly "from the ground up"
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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
- Start date
Just like you probably can find traces of UE1 in UE5 if you look hard enough.
edit: my point is, nothing is truly "from the ground up"
Thugstas
Bob-omb
Why asking this ? Drake hasn’t changed from what was shared here
daase ko
Octorok
A big signal for me to stop following gaming news through the prism of insiders.
I'll let nintendo announce the thing and be surprised for a change.
Anyway many of the games that made me impatient to play on the new hardware already released and I enjoyed them on PC in the expected visual quality or better anyway.
Another thing is that recently someone linked to an archive version of the august 2020 Mochizuki article and in it he was claiming the hardware was coming in 2021, so there was never a good time frame given, it's crazy.
I'll let nintendo announce the thing and be surprised for a change.
Anyway many of the games that made me impatient to play on the new hardware already released and I enjoyed them on PC in the expected visual quality or better anyway.
Another thing is that recently someone linked to an archive version of the august 2020 Mochizuki article and in it he was claiming the hardware was coming in 2021, so there was never a good time frame given, it's crazy.
ReddDreadtheLead
#TeamLate2025WithAPotentialForEarly2026
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The reasoning is probably a lot simpler than you think: Nintendo handed out dev kits to key partners to ask for their input and feedback. The developer kit was showing what the system can do and it was a demo of sorts perhaps. Mochizuki heard rumblings about Nintendo giving 4K developer kits to certain studios.
So, he interpreted and conflated two things here most likely like he’s done before: Nintendo gives 4K developer kits to studios = Nintendo is asking studios to make games 4K ready
Little did he know about this extra piece: Nintendo gave these kits, but they were returned. Why? Because they weren’t actually for development, it was Nintendo showing devs the kit and asking for feedback on the hardware.
So, you have 11 studios, one of which is Zynga and they claimed that they do not have a developer kit. Now piecing this altogether now, it is likely that they made such claim… because they got it at one point but it wasn’t to keep, only for DEMO.
And Nintendo’s statement of “we did not give partners kits for developing 4K switch titles” because the kit wasn’t for developing, it was for showing.
Fast forward through the years, as we know zero games targeting some system that’s supposed to be out within a year, let alone 6 months.
All of this is to say, we are likely seeing a situation where he said she said, conflation of information, mixing up information and people stuck wondering why we haven’t seen games really.
But the time of the reporting for a kit in the SUMMER 2021, like more of them, was likely just test kits for something that wasn’t related to actually making games.
Remember how Capcom asked for more RAM? Something like that as an example.
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Seboss
Hold it!
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Maybe this was already discussed and/or might come across as a really stupid question but, please bear with me. Could the next Nintendo device be streaming-only?
Obviously, there has been a lot of discussion about industry insiders tidbits, leaks and ultimately how Drake - or rather T239 - could fit the bill for a new power-efficient Nintendo handheld. But what if we were wrong all along and that T239 was never supposed to be the foundation of a end-user device but rather the heart of a server appliance for a new streaming platform that would be able to run both old and new Switch games natively?
Is there any credibility to that?
It doesn't contradict the need for devkits as developers would still have to build games for the platform. It also means that the chip wouldn't have to be produced in the tens of millions as it would only be required to power a few thousand servers across the world. That does seem a bit non-sensical considering cost-efficiency but maybe Nvidia has other plans for the chip. On the other hand it could explain the lack of evidence on the actual production of the chip, since it's would be much lower scale and much more confidential than an end-user device. It also opens the door to a much larger and power-hungry chip than expected. It doesn't refute rumors about a 1080p screen for the actual streaming client device.
As for Nintendo, that would come with all the usual streaming incentives. Subscription model, complete ownership of the software, skipping retail channels, high-margins on a dumb streaming console.
Obviously, that would be the real monkey paw. The worst-case scenario as far as I'm concerned. So does that sound completely out of the question?
Obviously, there has been a lot of discussion about industry insiders tidbits, leaks and ultimately how Drake - or rather T239 - could fit the bill for a new power-efficient Nintendo handheld. But what if we were wrong all along and that T239 was never supposed to be the foundation of a end-user device but rather the heart of a server appliance for a new streaming platform that would be able to run both old and new Switch games natively?
Is there any credibility to that?
It doesn't contradict the need for devkits as developers would still have to build games for the platform. It also means that the chip wouldn't have to be produced in the tens of millions as it would only be required to power a few thousand servers across the world. That does seem a bit non-sensical considering cost-efficiency but maybe Nvidia has other plans for the chip. On the other hand it could explain the lack of evidence on the actual production of the chip, since it's would be much lower scale and much more confidential than an end-user device. It also opens the door to a much larger and power-hungry chip than expected. It doesn't refute rumors about a 1080p screen for the actual streaming client device.
As for Nintendo, that would come with all the usual streaming incentives. Subscription model, complete ownership of the software, skipping retail channels, high-margins on a dumb streaming console.
Obviously, that would be the real monkey paw. The worst-case scenario as far as I'm concerned. So does that sound completely out of the question?
Z0m3le
Bob-omb
Drake has been seen in the linux kernal since early this year. Around April there is information in the linux kernal about T239 that wouldn't exist unless the physical SoC existed. On September 5th there was another update in Linux for Drake, this update meant final silicon exists, thus it has begun production. I'm not the only one who came to this conclusion, Rich from DF said exactly the same thing about this Linux kernal update in September when it was discovered and talked about in a podcast on DF.
I have cut back drastically on how much I read and post on Nintendo forums, largely because of days like yesterday, it's always doom time with Nintendo. As for the release timing of Drake, I heard in late Spring 2021 that Drake would be released this FY actually... When Zelda was delayed earlier this year, it was actually unclear when Drake would release, if it was this holiday or with Zelda. I personally have always believed the original info about more powerful Switch hardware lining up with Zelda, so that made sense to me. With the above information about Drake, and it's production already going on for 5 months now, I think a Drake Switch production could easily be underway right now, though factory uncle says it will start FULL production in January, which means just like Switch went through a ramp up in September 2016 and full production in October 2016, that would give them about 6 months until launch, which lines up with Zelda more or less.I thought you said you knew from even before Bloomberg that it was always planned for H1 2023.
You have to be more clear and please start replying to users if somebody is asking you something about a commentary from you
My thoughts on CES is just my own opinion on the situation. I've been attacked recently because of the way I post, that I am treated as an insider, I'm not. I don't talk to people under NDAs, I'm not trying to make money off of anyone and I don't post enough here to really be doing it for the spotlight. I am saying this because I want to be clear, I'm speculating like everyone else in the thread, whenever I have insider information, I've shared it unless told not to, in which case I never bring it up. I talk definitively because I'm referencing this thread and the knowledge inside of it, if you see a definitive statement Drake has been in production since August, that was discussed in here months ago, I know some people are trying to catch up on the info, and I think that getting a reply to a definitive statement I've made is perfectly useful and easy way to catch up, just know it's not insider knowledge. If I've heard something, I'll say that I heard it, I often only do this to collaborate information that exists, because frankly I'm not a source for any of it. I'm sorry if this isn't enough of a disclaimer for some, but yeah if you read my post as definitive, my statements might be, but if you see IMO, it means I'm just giving an opinion or otherwise speculating. Peace and love, don't take these things so seriously, killing insiders like Nate, is just going to leave us with more fake insiders and trolls.
Yea and since that was an off the shelf chip pretty much the only spec change Nintendo could possibly deliver on was change in ram. This time it is was a custom chip still in development, so they probably wanted feedback on a lot more.
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I like this theory. It actually fits rather nicely with all we've been hearing.
pelusilla6
Moblin
But a Pro Mariko wouldnt be capable of DLSS as Mochi reported and there isnt a mention of a chip capable of such things but Drake (t239).
Something is odd here, getting news in the end of 2022 about a cancelled Pro in 2020 or 2021?
Mochi recognizing DF and corroborating his 2020-21 reports with it... It just doesn't make any sense or they are mixing systems and it's not ""possible"" looking at the Nvidia leak.
Edit: A single mention of t236 but nothing else.
Edit2: All ports from 3d parties in Limbo since 2021-22? No sense... or big tear of trust in their relationship.
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LoneRanger
Chain Chomp
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What intrigues most about this situation is the speculated/rumoured third party exclusives to new model.
Lets say…
Original plans for Nintendo were to release new HW as a mid-gen revision (called it Switch 4k) in may with Zelda TOTK and then Pikmin 4, new Mario 2D, Kid Icarus Uprising Ultimate as mayor projects for FY2023/24. Then by FY2024/25 they would start to roll out some Switch 4k exclusives like new Mario Kart, Mario 3D, new collaborative project by a other studio like Platinium Games/Monolith Soft, etc with still some cross-gen games like a new Zelda 2D, Metroid Prime 4 or new Pokémon RPG. I’m really sure all FY2023/24 first party titles are developed with Switch 1 HW in mind.
In addition, they give free way to third party partners to develop games aiming only for new SoC. We know one of them is RDR2. Initial target for these titles are may 2023 and foward.
Ok, lets say Nintendo changed plans and want to market new SoC as a true successor rather than a new model of existing Switch lineup. Aside from manufacturing issues and stockpile, they can delay their HW release date from may 2023 to 1 year and launched with a new Mario Kart so it has a truly first party exclusive. But the big question is, what to do with third party titles? Tell them to delay their software 1 year? Doesn’t that can create a bad relationship with Nintendo?
Lets say…
Original plans for Nintendo were to release new HW as a mid-gen revision (called it Switch 4k) in may with Zelda TOTK and then Pikmin 4, new Mario 2D, Kid Icarus Uprising Ultimate as mayor projects for FY2023/24. Then by FY2024/25 they would start to roll out some Switch 4k exclusives like new Mario Kart, Mario 3D, new collaborative project by a other studio like Platinium Games/Monolith Soft, etc with still some cross-gen games like a new Zelda 2D, Metroid Prime 4 or new Pokémon RPG. I’m really sure all FY2023/24 first party titles are developed with Switch 1 HW in mind.
In addition, they give free way to third party partners to develop games aiming only for new SoC. We know one of them is RDR2. Initial target for these titles are may 2023 and foward.
Ok, lets say Nintendo changed plans and want to market new SoC as a true successor rather than a new model of existing Switch lineup. Aside from manufacturing issues and stockpile, they can delay their HW release date from may 2023 to 1 year and launched with a new Mario Kart so it has a truly first party exclusive. But the big question is, what to do with third party titles? Tell them to delay their software 1 year? Doesn’t that can create a bad relationship with Nintendo?
In the specific example of RDR2, I doubt Rockstar has a problem with sitting on this port until the device releases. Maybe they get some extra marketing by Nintendo as compensation. Maybe even featured in the reveal, like skyrim was.
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Nothing DF said about this cancelled revision was in any way related to DLSS.
I'm saying they could easily be referring to the 2019 Mariko revision which we know from other sources was planned but scrapped. Mochizuki likely just got his wires crossed as we've all been assuming for a year.
CocaFormula
Cappy
Wow, I just finished reading the last twenty pages and...wow.
TBH I think Nate did quite a disservice to himself and the thread with the way he decided to report this supposedly new information because it simply didn't make sense in that form. He is also mixing it with his previous reports instead of simply stating the piece of information and that makes everything worse.
Oh the other hand, if you strip all the drama and personal speculation/agendas from the picture, I feel nothing has particularly changed.
T239 is a reality, it will be the base of a next iteration of Nintendo hardware and there are hints that it's closer to production than not. It's also the only known SOC that can fit the reporting on 4K/DLSS hardware/devkits all the way from 2020.
Now, there might have been a few changes during the development and the planning of this hardware, maybe going from an earlier "revision" to a full-blown successor with a delay in the launch date: this might be the reason for all the conflicting information from "insiders". But in this case I feel the picture should not change that much and a 2023 date is still likely.
The only other scenario that would warrant the recent speculation is if the 8nm Drake was effectively (and recently) scrapped. If Nintendo had issues in productizing it for any reason and decided that it was too late in the lifecycle to be worth it, it might have gone back to designing the next-gen hardware for much later probably porting a large part of the SOC on a new node. This would be indeed a huge setback with enormous implications, but I suspect we would have heard much more by now if that were the case.
TBH I think Nate did quite a disservice to himself and the thread with the way he decided to report this supposedly new information because it simply didn't make sense in that form. He is also mixing it with his previous reports instead of simply stating the piece of information and that makes everything worse.
Oh the other hand, if you strip all the drama and personal speculation/agendas from the picture, I feel nothing has particularly changed.
T239 is a reality, it will be the base of a next iteration of Nintendo hardware and there are hints that it's closer to production than not. It's also the only known SOC that can fit the reporting on 4K/DLSS hardware/devkits all the way from 2020.
Now, there might have been a few changes during the development and the planning of this hardware, maybe going from an earlier "revision" to a full-blown successor with a delay in the launch date: this might be the reason for all the conflicting information from "insiders". But in this case I feel the picture should not change that much and a 2023 date is still likely.
The only other scenario that would warrant the recent speculation is if the 8nm Drake was effectively (and recently) scrapped. If Nintendo had issues in productizing it for any reason and decided that it was too late in the lifecycle to be worth it, it might have gone back to designing the next-gen hardware for much later probably porting a large part of the SOC on a new node. This would be indeed a huge setback with enormous implications, but I suspect we would have heard much more by now if that were the case.
LoneRanger
Chain Chomp
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Well RDR2 is an specific example I know. But there can be others..
Like Capcom having a SF6 port ready, or Square-Enix wanting to quick port FFVIIRI
Or don’t know, any PS4/XOne based title is apparently very feasible for next SoC, even some PS5/XSeries ports are possible not so hard to make.
It can be a great report for some insider/journalist if they can find an answer.
LinkURL
Bob-omb
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I think it's a mistake to think that Drake needs to launch with Mario Kart or some exclusive at that level, a device like that would sell out for months even with only third parties and Switch games in 4K. Better save the MK for when the wave of early adopters has passed.
pelusilla6
Moblin
I was refering to Mochi recognizing DF and corroborating his DLSS reports so as you say, he must have had his wires crossed.
The thing is that DF recognized the cancelation now (in the summer podcast they were expecting something in 2023) along with Nate. Very odd if its the 2019-20 system.
News of something fresh not from 2019 if several insiders heard little birds recently.
Soralink91
Moblin
I don't agree. Past Nintendo consoles that don't come with a big first party game have failed to garner the momentum Nintendo needed. Most famously happened with the 3DS the follow up to the massive DS.
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February probably, they have FE releasing near the end of January.
Pacobob
Bob-omb
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Yes surely! Unless they make an nd including FE, but bad idea as other games might overshadow it
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#TeamJanuary4lyfe #TeamJanuaryStaysWinning
How is a mobile/hybrids device launching in an inferior node 3-year after its competition “not bad news”?
This one is self-evident.
eye0h
"it is known"
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I wonder why nintendo have been so quiet on TOTK. The game has been rated, we are likely not getting new hardware anytime soon and we have seen like a minute of curated gameplay over 3 years. Their biggest game of the year (that we know of) and it theres still nothing six months till launch. My only real guess is that by the time we see a blowout, the name of the game will make everyone face palm and go "thats why it's called TOTK". Anyone got any other ideas?
February, me thinks. early february, so all Pokemon Day reveals are running on Drake
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Their pattern lately has been to do a full direct after their next biggish game launches, not before. I expect that to continue.
kimbo99
Spirit Detective
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Because DF have actual intelligence unlike the trolls in their comment section. But the chip is really outdated now.
Magic-Man
Perseus Jackson
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On the sorta bright side, at least we only have about a month or so left of speculation on this thing before it becomes clear that it will/won't come out in May. If it's coming out with TOTK I think we'll hear about it the week after Fire Emblem Engage releases.
LinkURL
Bob-omb
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I believe that Nintendo is in a very different position than it was in the Wii and DS transitions, Switch has a casual appeal but also still has a certain hardcore appeal, the idea of a hybrid is still very appealing.
A Nintendo device with really modern hardware (the first in decades), maintaining a format that has really managed to conquer both casual and hardcore people, and now with great support from third parties, has everything to be a success perhaps even greater than the Switch.
Soralink91
Moblin
I agree they are in a much better position now then ever, but I still think relying on 3rd parties would be a mistake. But no matter the launch with series like Pokemon, Zelda, Mario, Mario kart, Animal Crossing and Smash they will be fine.
This seems to be another example of gaming media (deliberately? incompetently?) mistranslating a paywalled article to attract more clicks. The content is not what people were led to believe. Here is the complete Nikkei article without the paywall. Running it through Google Translation or DeepL (I verified their translations with my own, and they were pretty good in this instance), you'd immediately realize that it is an opinion piece, not news reporting.Here's the original source of it but it's paywalled:
任天堂、もがく独創の王国 忍び寄る黒船 - 日本経済新聞
世界の家庭用ゲーム市場をゼロから切り開いてきた任天堂。ヒット作品の有無で業績が乱高下する「ばくち経営」からの脱皮や集団指導体制への移行を目指すが、行きすぎれば、日本を代表する独創企業のDNAを損う。「独創」と「安定」の間でもがく任天堂の悩みは深い。あっけない幕切れ2018年12月。大手部品メーカーのもとに任天堂からある通達が届いた。「QOL事業の開発を中止します」。あっけない幕切れだった。www.nikkei.com
I can't find the summary I remember, which talked about an enhanced model being planned but scrapped. Unless my memory is very bad.
EDIT: Found one
New Nintendo Switch: Report Hints at Release Date for Cheaper Model
It might be here very soon.www.inverse.com
As to be expected from a business/investment oriented press, the analyst criticized Nintendo management for not spending as much on R&D as Google or Apple (srsly?), not moving faster into VR and cloud gaming (if I had a nickel...), and Furukawa for being a "salaryman" who hadn't created a smash-hit product yet (when the article was written, he was the President for not even a year). As for the section regarding the new Switch model (machine translated with my own edits):
So, no, Nikkei did not report of a scrapped Switch model, but described a directionless early stage development without naming a source.
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Oh wow thank you for the correction. Very odd that other articles even explicitly quoted nikkei as saying something was postponed.
Kenka
Like Like
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It is a good question and yes, it was dicsussed before. Nvidia has already a platform for cloud gaming that is operational. If the next Switch was a thin client, there would be no need to develop a new chip at all in the first place.
Hence, we are certain that the Drake SoC will be shipped with the unit.
Z0m3le
Bob-omb
While this could be more accurate, the behind paywall article was exposed in the past to someone who actually natively speaks japanese, all that really came of this is that the information in the article was talking about a next generation Switch in development that had a new processor, and was just beginning development. If this is an opinion piece, that was just a good guess, however we know that development of a next generation Switch, did begin in early 2019. I wouldn't use google/ai translation tools to be definitive about the article, a lot of times opinions are given alongside information, and this can be lost in translation quite easily.
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bloopland33
Like Like
Nate, if you’re able/comfortable saying - is 2023 off the table now for stronger Nintendo hardware?
manfromthedam
Semi Undercover Game Music Guy
While I'm still thinking of Zelda launching with an updated Switch, Splatoon 3 - EPDs previous big release - did have a similarly strange, fragmented marketing strategy and that game sold remarkably well regardless. It could just be a different approach to marketing.
Seboss
Hold it!
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I agree but I would assume that Nintendo would be looking to build their own platform rather than rely on a third-party for years to come, especially since the existing Nvidia platform cannot run existing Switch games natively.
It's certainly true that if Nintendo is ok to rely on emulation for Switch games - and they certainly do for their other legacy platforms and it's perfectly feasible as Yuzu and Ryujinx demonstrate - it seems much easier and cost-efficient to rely on a regular PC architecture than a specialized SoC.
Ugh, please don't do anything stupid, Nintendo.
Eclissi
Moblin
Yes.
The problem is in the things you tried to predict later... from the launch in July 2021 (then it was the oled...), then moved to the end of 22nd / beginning of 23rd (we're here now and nothing is known), up to the point of saying that you knew about this cancellation too but were you waiting for confirmations (is a DF podcast a confirmation? It didn't take much)... when instead DF talks about canceling an alleged refresh, while you had previously admitted that you were talking about Switch T239, which certainly isn't can define "refresh"...
I'm sorry Nate, I appreciate and respect you... but you got stuck in this story for me (perhaps not your fault, but your sources' faults... but you know... burdens and honors
)
kvetcha
hoopy frood
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Then perhaps the Speculation thread is not the place for you?
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I wouldn't be surprised if that's part of the info he's chasing and has no answer now, but we're gonna find out for ourselves before long.
I still firmly stand by if there's nothing by the end of the fiscal year 31/03/2023, then there's nothing scheduled at all and this thread will continue to be incredibly cyclical until 2025.
bloopland33
Like Like
Yeah, the only small comfort I’m drawing in these dark times is that reading through all the posts yesterday and today, if I didn’t jumble things up (it was late), I don’t believe he’s explicitly discounted 2023.
Doesn’t mean anything for sure, but it means I can continue to hope a little. But this all started (along with DF’s video) with him saying the revision he’s been discussing has been shelved.
Now that may or may not involve Drake (per his clarification), but the revision he’s been discussing is the H2 2022/H1 2023 device, right? So from that angle a TOTK launch feels dead. (I guess that leaves the 2nd half of 2023 but idk)
any other hardware than Drake doesn't fit any known, verifiable data that we have. go past that, and I think you're stressing yourself over nothing
This is the problem I have with Nate here. On the one hand he is saying the NVN 2 leak validated his reporting about the revision whatever you want to call it. On the other hand, he is saying the revision that got cancelled is not necessarily the Drake hardware. They both can't be true.
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Yeah that's really the core of my confusion here with what he's saying. DF specifically hasn't said when this thing was cancelled or what its capabilities were, all of that seems to be from Nate. I feel like he jumped the gun sharing this because he thought DF had corroborated his info, but he may have just read a bit too much into what DF said.
It's a mystery.
bloopland33
Like Like
Sure, I agree with you, I was just covering all my bases in my wording so nothing got excluded on a technicality if you know what I mean.
My main point was that Nate said the device he’s been talking about is shelved. He was talking about a device for H2 2022/H1 2023.
That would then seem to preclude a TOTK launch and weaken odds for 2023. Am I wrong in my logic there based on what he’s said? There’s a lot to keep track of and parse the last 24 hours so I’m happy to be corrected.
Hero of Hyrule
Frieren the Slayer
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Has the DF report from yesterday changed the general expectation regarding when we might be expecting this to come out?
Charamiwa
Bob-omb
The main thing that changed after all this (on top of more general confusion) is that we have now no one reliable to vouch for H1 2023. We used to have Nate and Mochizuki's report and they both seem to think that DF's discussion is invalidating what they previously reported on. And DF themselves seem to be sure that 2023 isn't happening for some reason.
So really our reasons to believe a H1 2023 release (which was already moved from a Q4 2022/Q1 2023 window if you'll recall) have really thinned out. All we have now is our feelings that it makes sense to release with Zelda and the Nvidia leak stuff which doesn't tell us much about release windows. It is a bit shaky.
So really our reasons to believe a H1 2023 release (which was already moved from a Q4 2022/Q1 2023 window if you'll recall) have really thinned out. All we have now is our feelings that it makes sense to release with Zelda and the Nvidia leak stuff which doesn't tell us much about release windows. It is a bit shaky.
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