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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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Can somebody please sum up whats the ACTUAL stand up to this time point? It got so confusing from 1000 uncles to everything what was said being again changed...:(o_O
 
Stinky Horse said:
It could mean Zelda bumped up to December. 🤔. Unlikely though.
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Haha, yeah - this could mean anything really. I'm still holding out hope for next week with the Splatoon tournament gap and stuff. After that I'll just vacation as hard as I can and try to put this out of my mind for a bit (even though yesterday/Funcleday was genuinely fun xD ) .
 
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Good morning to this thread too. Requesting a briefing update for the last 19 hours!

manfromthedam said:
Didn't Mochizuki tease BotW2 just before E3 2019 with a "Z2 2022" tweet? "2 early" could also refer to that :p .
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IIRC, that was actually Serkan Toto. He was, again iirc, also the only person that called BotW 2 at E³ 2019.
 
Feels like this reading through all of the uncle plot twists this morning. What a roller-coaster! Love it.

confused-math.gif
 
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Ojoloco said:
Post in thread 'Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation and Discussion |ST| Nate Drake, is this a new thread or a revision of the previous thread?' https://famiboards.com/threads/futu...evision-of-the-previous-thread.55/post-310943

Post in thread 'Nintendo Event Speculation |ST July 2022| Speculate Chronicles 3' https://famiboards.com/threads/nint...-2022-speculate-chronicles-3.3249/post-307594
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Cheers, Seems like he has said the same thing the past 2 years tho? One year he has to be right I guess.
 
ILikeFeet said:
Summer reveal does feel too early to me, especially after a Splatoon model reveal. October reveal still makes the most sense to me
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That would be a really short announcement to release window if we theorize that November is the latest they want to launch it then.

Stranger things have happened, but it would be certainly surprisingly short.
 
ITSMILNER said:
Cheers, Seems like he has said the same thing the past 2 years tho? One year he has to be right I guess.
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He hasn't actually said it before. He has speculated on the existence of the console (like everyone else), but he has never spoken in the way that he did yesterday (that is, without being speculation).

Another different thing is that more than one news website takes the speculation and turns it into a "leak", as he has happened more than once with Nate for example.
 
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Bonejack said:
That would be a really short announcement to release window if we theorize that November is the latest they want to launch it then.

Stranger things have happened, but it would be certainly surprisingly short.
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I don't think CY22 is even on the cards anymore. The earliest being in January or March at the latest. A Q1 (FY) launch doesn't sound so crazy either
 
Despite having followed the thread for many pages now (started a few days ago), English isn't my native language sadly and stuff is coming from everywhere so it's hard to keep track on the latest rumor updates for every aspect of Switch Succ / Drake o_O

Not too long ago many people assumed the hardware would release along with BotW's sequel so in Spring 2023, the idea made sense for various reasons, so is there enough smoke/evidence now to think otherwise (meaning an earlier release, this year or early 2023)?

Although we can never be too sure with Nintendo, especially on hardware announcements, I'm pretty sure of two things (but feel free to tell me if I'm wrong!):

- as this isn't a simple/modest revision like Lite or OLED, I feel like Nintendo won't shadow drop a trailer/presentation for this and we shouldn't have expected as such yesterday (for concerned people, including myself lol).
They should tease something one or two days before as they usually do with Directs, with a simple tweet saying like "Make sure to watch our presentation on Wednesday XX to see what awaits you in the future of the Nintendo Switch family!".
It's not totally comparable to the 2016 communication prior to Switch's release of course, but they'd probably want to replicate the impact of it to some degree; both for hype and make it clear how there's a gap between current models and this new one.

- I actually forgot what my second point was about while writing the first one. :( I'll edit or post again when I remember it :unsure:

EDIT: oh yes that's it!
The window between announcement and release should be quite large, for the reasons stated above but also other things. I don't think it'd make sense to have only, like, 2 months in between. OLED was about 3 months, so Drake should be even more like at least 5 months. They want to have time to communicate the best as they can about the thing, showing improvements on (existing?) games with/without patches, possibly exclusives etc. It shouldn't be something minor at all, in any way.
So considering that, I clearly don't know what the announcement date could be but it's going to be tight pretty quickly if it's planned for a 2022 release. Now for 2023, September would make sense but that would be close to the Splatoon 3 OLED edition release so I don't know (of course it's not like they never did something like this, quite the opposite actually).
 
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Not sure what Mochi's game is here... If he's replying to the rumours of yesterday it's "2 early for Swith 2". If it's a standalone statement it'd be "Switch 2 is early". He can also just hate early flights of course :p .
Bonejack said:
IIRC, that was actually Serkan Toto. He was, again iirc, also the only person that called BotW 2 at E³ 2019.
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Ah, I got that confused, thanks!
 
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ILikeFeet said:
I don't think CY22 is even on the cards anymore. The earliest being in January or March at the latest. A Q1 (FY) launch doesn't sound so crazy either
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In this case, i don't expect an announcement in CY22 either. Such an announcement, especially if it would be releasing as soon as January following the announcement, would definitely impact their holiday sales big time.
 
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Ojoloco said:
Post in thread 'Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation and Discussion |ST| Nate Drake, is this a new thread or a revision of the previous thread?' https://famiboards.com/threads/futu...evision-of-the-previous-thread.55/post-310943

Post in thread 'Nintendo Event Speculation |ST July 2022| Speculate Chronicles 3' https://famiboards.com/threads/nint...-2022-speculate-chronicles-3.3249/post-307594
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Ah, deleted tweet, that's why I missed it. That's quite something, Toto is super well connected and very credible. A lot of smoke these days!
 
I can’t see a very good reason for a very short announcement to release timeframe. The concerns about taking sales from Splatoon 3 OLED model aren’t rational - it’s special edition product for fans, and will still undercut the new device by $90 or more.

I guess maybe if they know they can’t produce boatloads of the new hardware they don’t want to drum up impossible demand for the launch month? Perhaps even that doesn’t make sense …
 
I feel like it’d be more scummy on Nintendo’s part to reveal the Drake model after the Splatoon 3 OLED Switch launches, assuming it would launch this year too. Guess we’re just used to corporations screwing people over though :p. I’d say if this month goes by with nothing then it’s a wrap for a 2022 launch.
 
MondoMega said:
I feel like it’d be more scummy on Nintendo’s part to reveal the Drake model after the Splatoon 3 OLED Switch launches, assuming it would launch this year too. Guess we’re just used to corporations screwing people over though :p. I’d say if this month goes by with nothing then it’s a wrap for a 2022 launch.
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Well you will always have that one guy who will buy an oled (whatever which one) a day before the announcement of something new, it has always been like that.
 
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manfromthedam said:
Isn't Toto one of those analysts that predicted a Switch Pro releasing just about every year since release, or am I confusing people again? :p
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There's a difference between predicting things as an analyst (that's actually the job - and half of the industry did predict a Pro for many years) and actually hinting at having some information.

So just because he predicted this and it did not happen doesn't mean he knows nothing. Actually quite the opposite, as I that he's very well connected and one of the most important industry analysts out there.

It still doesn't mean anything is going to happen soon and he could just hint at something else or have wrong sources, but it's more trustworthy than most of the chinese sources that most people believe in. :)
 
thegodsend said:
There's a difference between predicting things as an analyst (that's actually the job - and half of the industry did predict a Pro for many years) and actually hinting at having some information.
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Right, that's an important distinction indeed. Just wanted to get this straight, I love hanging around here and trying to find the kernels of truth is a constant challenge ;) .
thegodsend said:
It still doesn't mean anything is going to happen soon and he could just hint at something else or have wrong sources, but it's more trustworthy than most of the chinese sources that most people believe in. :)
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Yeah, that's the feeling I got, but his earlier comments kinda made me doubt it. Thanks for the perspective!

all the chinese uncles are kinda awesome though if only because of that cosy feeling of family xD
 
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Vladimir said:
I think Nintendo would want to lunch the Switch Drake with Botw 2 to drive sales
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Neither Drake nor BotW2 need each other to sell well during launch.

if they want third party exclusive games for this console it needs to have an installed base.
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Nintendo isn’t looking for 3rd party exclusives for Drake, just like they weren’t for Lite.

I think ideally they need to rush to 20 million units sold as soon as possible
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This is ridiculous. I don’t think Sony even sold that many ps4 pro’s during the entire ps4 lifetime…and it was cheaper than the new Switch Drake will probably be.

They don’t need to rush Drake sales. It’s another model option just like the Lite or OLED.

I'm even expecting them to use a 3D Mario as well to accomplish this.
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No reason for Nintendo to go out of their way to avoid putting a major Mario game on the Lite or OLED. None.
 
SMALLVILLE BOY said:
Lite and Oled have 3 months between announcement and realese, why the Pro would have less advertisment time if its a bigger deal than the other 2 revisions, it make no sense.
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Because Nintendo is having a new president who could follow a different strategie.
 
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I don’t mind if it ends up coming spring next year. I just want someone to pull the plug on or confirm if this year is possible. We’ll have peace of mind. I think the possibility of it still coming this year is what’s making everything so stressful and exciting.
 
SMALLVILLE BOY said:
September seems 2 late for a pro announcement for this year, Im thinking early August at the latest.
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If you are releasing your new hardware in Nov or Dec it still works. If the system is being made atm it makes sense that they have enough to sell during that time.

Furthermore, Mario All Stars was being put out in two weeks. A console in 2 months should be fine. Is it possible to get one? Probably not :p
 
Bonejack said:
That would be a really short announcement to release window if we theorize that November is the latest they want to launch it then.

Stranger things have happened, but it would be certainly surprisingly short.
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I can’t think of any Switch revision model that wasn’t revealed only 2-3 months before it launched.

ILikeFeet said:
I don't think CY22 is even on the cards anymore.
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Why?

That’s something you say in October if we haven’t heard any announcement, not July.

karmitt said:
I can’t see a very good reason for a very short announcement to release timeframe. The concerns about taking sales from Splatoon 3 OLED model aren’t rational - it’s special edition product for fans, and will still undercut the new device by $90 or more.

I guess maybe if they know they can’t produce boatloads of the new hardware they don’t want to drum up impossible demand for the launch month? Perhaps even that doesn’t make sense …
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Short reveal windows maximize shipments of other models.

For example, announcing Drake at the end of Sept (end of Q2) makes sense to me. Not only do you give the special edition OLED room to breath, but you don’t depress any other model sales for that quarter.

MondoMega said:
I feel like it’d be more scummy on Nintendo’s part to reveal the Drake model after the Splatoon 3 OLED Switch launches, assuming it would launch this year too.
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Eh, the OLED was announced just 4 months after they pushed that Monster Hunter Rise console on people.

Think of all the poor idiots who bought a special edition Uncharted 4 ps4 just months before the ps4 slim/ps4 pro reveal lol

This is how it always is.
 
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