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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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Gianko said:
I’m sorry to break your dream but no new hardware will be released this year and the next one. Probably you live in the US but Europe this year will be in a real and deep economical crisis. No way!
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PS5/Xbox were released during covid, Nvidia and AMD are going to launch a new GPU gen soon.

Yeah, plans won't change.
 
Gianko said:
I’m sorry to break your dream but no new hardware will be released this year and the next one. Probably you live in the US but Europe this year will be in a real and deep economical crisis. No way!
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Sony and Microsoft went ahead and released the PS5 and Xbox Series consoles, despite ongoing shortages, COVID, economic turmoil, and shipping issues, among other things as well. This absolutely won't stop Nintendo from going forward with this.

Not only that, if Nintendo and Nvidia cancel or delay manufacturing plans with their partners, they would have to wait years before they could produce the units again. A lot of the manufacturing plants are backed up by years now. They can't do this realistically for a number of reasons.

Worst I could see is a minor delay while manufacturing of units continues and Nintendo coordinates a long term plan to get units out there, but if it doesn't ship in 2023, don't expect anything for years.
 
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Gianko said:
I’m sorry to break your dream but no new hardware will be released this year and the next one. Probably you live in the US but Europe this year will be in a real and deep economical crisis. No way!
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Nothing's saying Nintendo can't have multiple contingency plans. Especially when it comes to releasing new hardware.
 
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SiG said:
Might be easy to convert it to DLSS...but from what I understand, the folks who developed the Luminous Engine all left S-E, unless I'm mistaken.
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that's irrelevant since they're still using the engine for Forspoken and Luminous Productions
 
Quoted by: SiG
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As morbid as it sounds, that isn’t what would stop hardware from coming this year if it is supposed come this year.

The earth getting obliterated would stop the hardware form coming.
 
SiG said:
Hmm, interesting.

If that's the case, the PC version of FFXV can really use an update with its DLSS implementation.
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they always could have updated the game, they just chose not to. the funeral stream was them closing pretty much all development on the game. on steam, the last meaningful update was 2 years ago

if it comes to Drake, then that'll be when/if the PC version gets updated to 2.0
 
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Polygon said:
Sure. Four of my friends went into the industry. Two aren't in it anymore mostly because of the working conditions and the expectation to work every hour god sends.

The other two work at the same studio. In Scotland... They both know how much I like the industry but have told me outright to stop asking questions which would get them in trouble but now and again they tease me.

In 2018 I was told by one friend that crime was coming to Switch. I took that to mean GTA V but it never arrived but it could well have meant the GTA Trilogy.

In 2019 the other friend outright told me they had GTA V up and running on Switch but weren't happy with the performance mainly due to the CPU even early in development when performance usually doesn't concern. It didn't happen due to this and not the large file size and mp mode like most thought. I imagine it could have been done but would require more time and money than R cared to spend.

In 2020 I was told "the cowboys were coming to Switch... eventually". Then covid hit.

Early this year when I asked if there was any sign of a new Switch I was told that they had "a new Mario Maker", the cowboys were now coming to it and last month they told me that I shouldn't expect the console this year.

That's all I have been told because as I said they get mad understandably when I ask. Now and again after a few beers I get some small info though. If I get more I'll share it here. I don't want to get into the insider stuff because the abuse they get is frankly abhorrent.
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Thank you very much for this! I was only expecting a confirmation of it being/not being a joke, but the info you shared is fantastic. Personally I also think that a Q1CY23 release is more likely; the question is how far ahead Nintendo will reveal it.
 
Polygon said:
Sure. Four of my friends went into the industry. Two aren't in it anymore mostly because of the working conditions and the expectation to work every hour god sends.

The other two work at the same studio. In Scotland... They both know how much I like the industry but have told me outright to stop asking questions which would get them in trouble but now and again they tease me.

In 2018 I was told by one friend that crime was coming to Switch. I took that to mean GTA V but it never arrived but it could well have meant the GTA Trilogy.

In 2019 the other friend outright told me they had GTA V up and running on Switch but weren't happy with the performance mainly due to the CPU even early in development when performance usually doesn't concern. It didn't happen due to this and not the large file size and mp mode like most thought. I imagine it could have been done but would require more time and money than R cared to spend.

In 2020 I was told "the cowboys were coming to Switch... eventually". Then covid hit.

Early this year when I asked if there was any sign of a new Switch I was told that they had "a new Mario Maker", the cowboys were now coming to it and last month they told me that I shouldn't expect the console this year.

That's all I have been told because as I said they get mad understandably when I ask. Now and again after a few beers I get some small info though. If I get more I'll share it here. I don't want to get into the insider stuff because the abuse they get is frankly abhorrent.
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Cool stuff, so I guess they might not announce Drake this year.

But ngl, strong third-party titles like RDR2 could easily sell this new console.
 
Nintendo is not Sony or Microsoft. They need to sell lots of console at start to have a support from 3rd party. PlayStation is PlayStation and can take all the time they want and they will always have big support. New Switch should be in production now and it will be not enough. This year is impossible! Economic crisis will be more than you think in Europe. Probably nintendo could scrape Europe at launch.
 
Gianko said:
Nintendo is not Sony or Microsoft. They need to sell lots of console at start to have a support from 3rd party. PlayStation is PlayStation and can take all the time they want and they will always have big support. New Switch should be in production now and it will be not enough. This year is impossible! Economic crisis will be more than you think in Europe. Probably nintendo could scrape Europe at launch.
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Gianko, we already explained everything to you why you're line of thinking is wrong. Please stop this.

Also, before I forget, Nintendo already experienced this with the OLED model, which required them to coordinate a more expensive route of delivering items to numerous territories. They've aware of the issues associated with supply chain being constrained, as well as various shipments being backed up. They've done this already, and likely continue to do this with both the regular Switch models and the OLED model.

It potentially might translate into either higher costs for the consumer or lower profit margin (or taking a loss) for Nintendo, but they're already dealing with the reality as it is with the OLED launch last year and the continued ensuring that shipments of units are made out to retailers across the globe.
 
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Mobius said:
Cool stuff, so I guess they might not announce Drake this year.

But ngl, strong third-party titles like RDR2 could easily sell this new console.
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When was the last time 3rd parties carried a Nintendo launch? Because I seem to remember the WiiU & 3DS attempting this but failing on both accounts. Nintendo hardware is bought for Nintendo software w/3rd parties being an added bonus. 1st party software will have to carry the launch of the device first & foremost.
 
Tentacle-tropes said:
When was the last time 3rd parties carried a Nintendo launch? Because I seem to remember the WiiU & 3DS attempting this but failing on both accounts. Nintendo hardware is bought for Nintendo software w/3rd parties being an added bonus. 1st party software will have to carry the launch of the device first & foremost.
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The one and only time it worked was for the SNES when Nintendo had the support of almost all 3rd parties in JP (and still Nintendo 1st party output was really important for SNES success)
 
Shadowrun said:
If Drake isn't coming this year, it won't be announced this year. It's that simple. There's no point in undermining their holiday sales by announcing a new console that won't be available until next year.
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Yeah I'm expecting them to almost point for point follow what they done with Switch so a special reveal event in Jan with it launching with BotW 2 in March and they'll have a big new 3D Mario game to show off what it can do for November. Bayonetta 3 next summer too. Mario Kart 9 Spring'24. All just guesses.
 
Eos said:
Thanks to both of you!
The meeting is three hours after the direct. Has this ever happened? A investor meeting after a direct? Could we expect something big?
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I think the expectation at the moment is that the direct will air the next day, Wednesday, at either noon or 6 PM EST. Obviously though neither date nor time have been officially announced yet.
 
Eos said:
Thanks to both of you!
The meeting is three hours after the direct. Has this ever happened? A investor meeting after a direct? Could we expect something big?
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The meeting is the day before the Direct. I would not read too much into it, but obviously, if they intend to launch hardware this fiscal year, they would likely either allude to it or be asked about it at the meeting.
 
Shadowrun said:
The meeting is the day before the Direct. I would not read too much into it, but obviously, if they intend to launch hardware this fiscal year, they would likely either allude to it or be asked about it at the meeting.
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They're usually asked about it anyway. I doubt the Q&A will have any big spoilers this year. Not even sure how quickly the transcript would be released, in Japanese let alone the properly translated English version. Though I think I recall some people do live tweet it.
 
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LoneRanger said:
If Its possible to guess, I think there are 3 worthy titles to include very near next Switch HW launch (assuming its second half 2023):

  • Red Dead Redemption 2
  • COD Warzone 2
  • Elder Ring

+ Nintendo own stuff.
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Some will probably laugh, but I'm somehow convinced that (if CD Project doesn't abandon it) Cyberpunk 2077 will appear on the next Switch.

Might not be a launch title, but I think it's a good demonstration of DLSS, RT, etc. , even at lower quality/settings.

Edit: And if going by Witcher 3 (on Switch), it will get released 3-4 years after its' original release (2020->2023-24), so that means Switch 2 will def. be on the market by then. Boom....Switch 2 release year confirmed 🤪
 
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Shadowrun said:
The meeting is the day before the Direct. I would not read too much into it, but obviously, if they intend to launch hardware this fiscal year, they would likely either allude to it or be asked about it at the meeting.
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I thought the direct was supposed to be 29th in the morning in Japan and 28th at night in USA.
 
Shadowrun said:
The meeting is the day before the Direct. I would not read too much into it, but obviously, if they intend to launch hardware this fiscal year, they would likely either allude to it or be asked about it at the meeting.
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We don't know if the direct will be before or after the meeting. The direct has been said to be on the 28th or the 29th depending on time zones, it could wind up being either before or after.
 
Gianko said:
I’m sorry to break your dream but no new hardware will be released this year and the next one. Probably you live in the US but Europe this year will be in a real and deep economical crisis. No way!
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People say this like Consoles haven't launched during a financial crisis before. The SNES launched in the middle of the 1990 financial crisis. Also delaying hardware is insanely expensive. If the plan was to release anything this year or early next, they wont just push it off to 2024. Hell, realistically they can't.
 
Shadowrun said:
If Drake isn't coming this year, it won't be announced this year. It's that simple. There's no point in undermining their holiday sales by announcing a new console that won't be available until next year.
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Switch was unveiled in October 20 2016 (4.5 months before Switch came out), so I wouldn't say it's out of the question. What Nintendo could easily do is announce it/unveil it after Pokemon Scarlet and Violet come out. They could disclose higher resolution features and performance for it and botw 2 at that time point if needed or perhaps in January 2022. Perhaps even offer players a free or discounted upgrade if they already bought it on switch to be able to play digital on switch 2, or not. Either way, it won't matter in regards to game sales whether people buy it on switch or switch 2, mainly as long as the 1st party games are offered on switch 2 as well. If Scarlett/Violet runs at a stable 900-1080p 30fps on docked and 720p 30fps on handheld with the current graphics displayed, people will be satisfied.

I think the Switch will continue to sell fine through the holidays even with a Switch 2 announcement in October. The majority of people who would buy switch 2 are the core gamers who likely already have a switch. Not to mention we are looking at a price point of $400-450 for the Switch successor, so it's not something casuals will buy in mass droves off the bat. They could reduce the current switch models price as well, when the successor comes out with Botw 2, if they really wanted more sales. $300-325 for switch OLED and $250-275 for v2 models and $150-175 for lite.

Tentacle-tropes said:
FTFY. I don’t see that game coming to Switch or it’s successor.
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why? Eldin Ring is a shoe in for the Switch successor. It runs fine on base PS4/xbone.

If we are lucky we'll see 64GB carts (and maybe a $70 price point at the worst case scenario) eventually, but what I'm also thinking is that besides compressing the data to make it smaller, they will also require partial downloads from eShop as well. It would be nice if Nintendo offered high storage right off the bat like 250GB to 1TB, but they likely isn't happening and we'll have to rely on SD cards most likely.

But people will absolutely buy a handheld eldin Ring, if that's the major sell point. I know it runs on steam deck already. But with DLSS enabled , we could see it surpass Steam Deck in performance.
 
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Tentacle-tropes said:
FTFY. I don’t see that game coming to Switch or it’s successor.
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Why? Aside from a politics view, technically wise it must be doable to have a next Switch HW version. Its been one of the most successful third party japanese titles worldwide on the last few years.

If I were Nintendo I would try hard to pushed for an elder ring complete version port ready for launch window.

In addition, I would also try to push harder to get Capcom fully on board. They aim to the biggest japanese publisher worldwide
 
LoneRanger said:
Why? Aside from a politics view, technically wise it must be doable to have a next Switch HW version. Its been one of the most successful third party japanese titles worldwide on the last few years.
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Bamco x FromSoft supporting Nintendo in 2022 :p
LoneRanger said:
In addition, I would also try to push harder to get Capcom fully on board. They aim to the biggest japanese publisher worldwide
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Good luck beating Nintendo lol (i have also said I dont think Capcom support will be that much better than Switch but w/e we will see). I only expect Capcom dev3 games and ports of Ps4/Xbox one games
 
Blue Monty said:
Bamco x FromSoft supporting Nintendo in 2022 :p

Good luck beating Nintendo lol (i have also said I dont think Capcom support will be that much better than Switch but w/e we will see). I only expect Capcom dev3 games and ports of Ps4/Xbox one games
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I mean, Dark Souls came to switch. It’s a distinct maybe.

On Capcom, not sure why you’d be pessimistic on them. They’re pretty great about switch support. From what I can tell they basically put everything they can on the console.
 
Spork4000 said:
I mean, Dark Souls came to switch. It’s a distinct maybe.
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And then nothing else from FromSoft backlog, DS came to Switch probably because Nintendo pushed for it, FromSoft was creditted as one of Nintendo Switch supporters due to it. FromSoft is just in another lane compared to Nintendo they will not make Drake ports themselves they will keep making PS5/XSX games and Bamco Switch support when it comes to making ports when studios dont make themselves is 0 if Nintendo doesn’t pay.

Spork4000 said:
On Capcom, not sure why you’d be pessimistic on them. They’re pretty great about switch support. From what I can tell they basically put everything they can on the console.
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2017-2020 Capcom Switch support was the worst of any JP publisher (if you dont count FromSoft as a publisher). I think that like FromSoft they will keep being on the XSX/PS5/PC lane and Drake will get some dedicated efforts and old ports like Switch has done but there will be more effort from Capcom part just dont think they will fit Drake on their development of AAA titles .
 
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ShadowFox08 said:
Switch was unveiled in October 20 2016 (4.5 months before Switch came out), so I wouldn't say it's out of the question. What Nintendo could easily do is announce it/unveil it after Pokemon Scarlet and Violet come out. They could disclose higher resolution features and performance for it and botw 2 at that time point if needed or perhaps in January 2022. Perhaps even offer players a free or discounted upgrade if they already bought it on switch to be able to play digital on switch 2, or not. Either way, it won't matter in regards to game sales whether people buy it on switch or switch 2, mainly as long as the 1st party games are offered on switch 2 as well. If Scarlett/Violet runs at a stable 900-1080p 30fps on docked and 720p 30fps on handheld with the current graphics displayed, people will be satisfied.

I think the Switch will continue to sell fine through the holidays even with a Switch 2 announcement in October. The majority of people who would buy switch 2 are the core gamers who likely already have a switch. Not to mention we are looking at a price point of $400-450 for the Switch successor, so it's not something casuals will buy in mass droves off the bat. They could reduce the current switch models price as well, when the successor comes out with Botw 2, if they really wanted more sales. $300-325 for switch OLED and $250-275 for v2 models and $150-175 for lite.
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The Switch was announced after the Wii U was already long dead; there was zero momentum to kill. Nintendo knew their holiday sales would be trash, and so, they decided to give investors a light at the end of the proverbial tunnel by letting them know ahead of the holiday sales massacre of the Wii U that there was a new console coming before the end of the fiscal year.

Things are very different now. The Switch sells record numbers almost every year, and a risk averse company like Nintendo is not going to risk losing any sales this holiday by announcing their new system too soon. The folks in this thread will know the new thing is on the horizon, but they won't announce it officially until next year if it is not happening in 2022.

With that said, it may very well still come out this year, and if that is the case, I expect that the announcement to happen VERY soon.
 
Polygon said:
Yeah I'm expecting them to almost point for point follow what they done with Switch so a special reveal event in Jan with it launching with BotW 2 in March and they'll have a big new 3D Mario game to show off what it can do for November. Bayonetta 3 next summer too. Mario Kart 9 Spring'24. All just guesses.
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Nothing against you mate, but these type of „My friend/uncle etc. works at Rockstar/Nintendo etc.“ are a running gag in the gaming world and dont tell anything valuable nowadays.

First of all, why I doubt your words, or maybe the words of your friend:

Rockstar Developer or any other 3rd Party developer knowing the release time is near to 0%.

Especially in case for devs, that wont have a launch title for a new system. Even then, they cant guess if a product is going to be released or not. Game development is not like „Switch Pro launches on October 7 so this is how much time you will have“

Its a multistep process, it has to go through QA etc. and even then devs dont know when a console is planned up to very close to the launch date.
 
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Shadowrun said:
Things are very different now. The Switch sells record numbers almost every year, and a risk averse company like Nintendo is not going to risk losing any sales this holiday by announcing their new system too soon. The folks in this thread will know the new thing is on the horizon, but they won't announce it officially until next year if it is not happening in 2022.
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If the release target is March 2023 the supply chain could start leaking before the holidays forcing Nintendo to comment.

I could see Nintendo doing a 4th quarter announcement as an attempt to manage expectations and control messaging. In particular if the messaging includes a higher price point for a 4K Switch and/or a price drop for the existing Switch line (I expect the former).

OG Switch sales may do fine despite the announcement, especially assuming the holiday bundle would include a game in the package.
 
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fwd-bwd said:
Thank you very much for this! I was only expecting a confirmation of it being/not being a joke, but the info you shared is fantastic. Personally I also think that a Q1CY23 release is more likely; the question is how far ahead Nintendo will reveal it.
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Me too I'm more in the Q1 2023 camp(but I don't rule out 2022).
This cowboy info and the factory uncle not expecting mass production of that back part before fall (and in a way Botw2 shifting from 2022 to early 2023) are all points leaning a bit more into 2023. But that isn't bad since all the rumors always said late 2022/Q1 2023 for Drake release. On the other hand, I don't know if we have info that pinpoints late 2022 more than Q1 2023.
 
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Shadowrun said:
The Switch was announced after the Wii U was already long dead; there was zero momentum to kill. Nintendo knew their holiday sales would be trash, and so, they decided to give investors a light at the end of the proverbial tunnel by letting them know ahead of the holiday sales massacre of the Wii U that there was a new console coming before the end of the fiscal year.

Things are very different now. The Switch sells record numbers almost every year, and a risk averse company like Nintendo is not going to risk losing any sales this holiday by announcing their new system too soon. The folks in this thread will know the new thing is on the horizon, but they won't announce it officially until next year if it is not happening in 2022.

With that said, it may very well still come out this year, and if that is the case, I expect that the announcement to happen VERY soon.
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I really see nothing wrong with an October or later 2022 announcement. It's not taking any game sales away from big titles and could be announced long after they are released (Splatoon 3, Pokemon, etc) and the overall sales will be net positive whether they are on switch or it's successor. What Nintendo hopes is 20 million consoles by the end of March 2023, and that could be a combination of Switch and Switch 2.

And again, Switch successor will likely be supporting all the 1st party titles for a number of years, with some exclusive third parties, won't even be easy to find this year, and it will be a premium product ($400-500). The majority of people who will buy the switch 2 at first will be core gamers who already have the switch.

What Nintendo can do is control the amount of information they give. An october/Q4 reveal won't be a blow out. It would just be like the Switch one, and "high res + performance support of existing select switch games." Then they could do a more detailed and dedicated direct in January/February, including a metroid prime 4 reveal (if we don't get it in this summer's direct).

But if they want to do a January reveal and release in April, that could happen as well. I think they would want 3 months from reveal to release at least. They'd be producing consoles before the reveal in 2022 before then.
 
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Shadowrun said:
The Switch was announced after the Wii U was already long dead; there was zero momentum to kill. Nintendo knew their holiday sales would be trash, and so, they decided to give investors a light at the end of the proverbial tunnel by letting them know ahead of the holiday sales massacre of the Wii U that there was a new console coming before the end of the fiscal year.

Things are very different now. The Switch sells record numbers almost every year, and a risk averse company like Nintendo is not going to risk losing any sales this holiday by announcing their new system too soon. The folks in this thread will know the new thing is on the horizon, but they won't announce it officially until next year if it is not happening in 2022.

With that said, it may very well still come out this year, and if that is the case, I expect that the announcement to happen VERY soon.
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Nintendo is in a much better financial situation and they can afford to 'lose' sales if that means they release the hardware in a much better situation, at this point Switch will soon be the past of Nintendo and the success of the new console is much more important than the sales they can lose right now (I don't think the sales lost will be that big in Holiday season, it will matter more for q1)
 
Blue Monty said:
Nintendo is in a much better financial situation and they can afford to 'lose' sales if that means they release the hardware in a much better situation, at this point Switch will soon be the past of Nintendo and the success of the new console is much more important than the sales they can lose right now (I don't think the sales lost will be that big in Holiday season, it will matter more for q1)
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The switch will definitely be supported for a few more years if they keep it up with the software. MP4 (I'm guessing a fall 2023 game) and Pikmin 4 will be in, and maybe mk10 if it's a 2024 release. Another Mario game is a shoe in too.

i'm just hoping Nitnendo just emulates the PS4 and PS5 cross gen support and the switch gets as long of a support as PS4. But at least we know it will be supported for at least 5 more years.. which could mean anything really (like pulling the plug in eShop in 2027) depending on how well it sells. But with the chip shortage issue, switch is likely fine for 2 more years for 1st party support.
 
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ShadowFox08 said:
The switch will definitely be supported for a few more years if they keep it up with the software. MP4 (I'm guessing a fall 2023 game) and Pikmin 4 will be in, and maybe mk10 if it's a 2024 release.

i'm just hoping Nitnendo just emulates the PS4 and PS5 cross gen support and the switch gets as long of a support as PS4. But at least we know it will be supported for at least 5 more years.. which could mean anything really (like pulling the plug in eShop in 2027) depending on how well it sells. But with the chip shortage issue, switch is likely fine for 2 more years for 1st party support.
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I was talking past/future from a hardware perspective, software wise Switch will be the main Nintendo platform at least until 2025, Nintendo now can and should support Switch/Drake at the same time for most of it's titles (even if some should be exclusive even at launch). And when it comes to the eShop I'd imagine they will share it so there is no reason to close it by 20XX until a new Nintendo platform uses a new shop
 
I doubt sales at the holiday are particularly important in terms of when they start talking about this thing. It appears to be something of a successor, and I don't recall any successor consoles not having at least some level of significant runway of information before release. Unless it's a lot further out than we think, they have to start providing guidance to their shareholders at some point, and if this thing is releasing between now and the first half of 2023, it seems reasonable that they'll need to say something even if not officially revealed.
 
Blue Monty said:
I was talking past/future from a hardware perspective, software wise Switch will be the main Nintendo platform at least until 2025, Nintendo now can and should support Switch/Drake at the same time for most of it's titles (even if some should be exclusive even at launch). And when it comes to the eShop I'd imagine they will share it so there is no reason to close it by 20XX until a new Nintendo platform uses a new shop
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oh I see
 
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Instro said:
I doubt sales at the holiday are particularly important in terms of when they start talking about this thing. It appears to be something of a successor, and I don't recall any successor consoles not having at least some level of significant runway of information before release. Unless it's a lot further out than we think, they have to start providing guidance to their shareholders at some point, and if this thing is releasing between now and the first half of 2023, it seems reasonable that they'll need to say something even if not officially revealed.
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On the contrary the only info we've gotten about how they plan to position this is that it's a revision, not a successor.

Not that I want to start that eternal battle again but there's really no reason to think it'll be treated as a successor if it launches this or early next year.
 
I wonder if the info Nate was trying to verify was it's announcement date? It could be the same for Mochi, which could explain why he hasn't published anything new about Drake, seeing how intent he is in proving himself right after the internet mocked him after conflating the SWOLED with Drake.
 
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