I'm not expecting 2022 at all and will think simultaneous release with botw 2 is a bit more likely, if not too predictable. But of course, anything goes.
With Switch not slowing down significantly in sales though, why would Nintendo release it this Fall opposed to Spring of the following year? What would they benefit from a Q4 release?. I can list a few reasons why from Nintendo's perspective why it could be better to push back.
But if Bayonetta 3 releases this year, that and Scarlett/violet are the perfect games to showcase them.
if Nintendo does go for a March-Spring 2023 release. Perhaps after Scarlet/Violet get released is the most strategic..