BlueManifest
Bob-omb
It’s either botw 2 or an unannounced Mario game
-
Hey everyone, staff have documented a list of banned content and subject matter that we feel are not consistent with site values, and don't make sense to host discussion of on Famiboards. This list (and the relevant reasoning per item) is viewable here.
StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
- Start date
Crusters
Koopa
- Pronouns
- He/him
But IBM was drunk, covered in spilled booze, wearing the lampshade, and humping the plant in the corner of the room at the industry party at the time.
IBM was a horrible partner at the time and they could have just gotten the chips to plop in for bc from them. IBM would have been more than happy to make just that deal, as their other partners were distancing themselves because they couldn't deliver a competitive CPU.
And then Nintendo's like 'yeah, that's what we want! Cause remember five years ago when boozey the plant bumper was hot stuff?'
I just don't see bc trumping all that, when there were other options.
Were there legal obligations from the past still in effect? Contract/partnership? Anything else makes more sense to me.
All the predictions sound so good that I can't believe them... But at the same time I'm all in, baby!
FernandoRocker
Piranha Plant
Let me correct you right there.
If the leaks are true, it seems to be at least 3 times more powerful (in theoretically brute force), and that's without DLSS in play.
Dark Cloud
Warpstar Knight
My Tulpa
Bob-omb
This is pretty simple to deal with, imo.
When the “next gen successor” comes out in ~2026, just keep the Drake model around as a cheaper Series S type option.
I was told much of the cutting edge tech and cost went into the tablet, no?
I don’t like the rap Nintendo gets either. I thought the tech in the Wii U was very impressive in 2012. I loved off tv play and asynchronous gaming. I know I was a minority on that opinion lol, but still.
The Switch launched as the most powerful portable console ever. That’s Nintendo using cutting edge edge mobile tech.
When people complain Nintendo always skimps out and is cheap in hardware…they mean in all the ways it doesn’t perform as a high end traditional home 3rd party gaming machine.
The difference was that the Switch was positioned as a “home console…that you can take on the go”.
I think they were going to take a cautious approach to see how much a hybrid concept would work and/or take off (or not).
This new model is going to be positioned as the exact same concept as the previous hybrids. They don’t have to go around saying “this doesn’t replace the other Switch’s!”
MP!
Like Like
Yeah nintendo usually has some sort of cutting edge something in their products... like glasses free 3d or wireless streaming to gamepad ( i'm still blown away by how low latency that was)...
In the past it was graphics and such (N64 Gamecube)
since the wii it was other things. Usually focusing on these other features that add to gameplay possibilities and design leads to a give and take.
It's like you said ... the things they focus on don't always amount to the best graphics possible at the time....
That being said I'm pretty excited to see what they could do with Raytracing and other things that newer tech can do.
I loved my wii U ... when I was playing games I was in heaven... when I had to do anything else like menu related or something I absolutely dreaded it... it was awful... so yeah give and take I suppose
PS4 Pro is irrelevant to what it would take to get games to 4k. There is no fixed amount of power it takes to render a game at 4k, it's all highly dependent on what each individual game is trying to accomplish.
The bottom line is, if all Nintendo wanted to do was put out a higher performance Switch revision, they would have just beefed up the chip like they normally do. There's some circumstantial evidence that this may have even been part of the original plan for Mariko that didn't end up panning out. Moving to a new chip that can't even run existing software without some light emulation is a far bigger investment from both Nintendo and Nvidia and unnecessarily complicates the whole endeavor if Nintendo isn't planning on a fairly extensive exclusive slate of games. The sheer gap in power just emphasizes this whole dynamic, as it puts the system in line with or above consoles that are already infamously difficult to downport to Switch from.
Kingpin722
Piranha Plant
Maybe Mariko Switch was really Wii U2. And Drake is the 1st Switch.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I’d have assumed Steam Deck was all fairly new in its design - is there something I’m missing here? Are we actually expecting this system to be:
- The same size as current Switch; much smaller than Deck
- Use less power than Deck
- And be more powerful than the Deck
Seems a tad pipe dreamy. Cool if it actually delivers
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Revenue also went up in FY20/21, which is why the percentage is so low. You switched from using a dollar figure increase to a percentage of revenue. Compare dollar figures to dollar figures. Here, let me help:
FY20/21 R&D spend was $880 million, the largest single year amount Nintendo has ever spent in the company’s history, apparently.
From the article:
And this is after R&D expenses were already the largest they had ever been the prior fiscal year.
And while this volume obviously includes software development and Nintendo also admits that such costs will continue to climb, every time there are such peaks in their R&D, as that chart shows, it’s nearly always 1-2 years before a new Nintendo hardware generation. The sharp rise in FY04/05 preceded the DS, FY05/06 preceded the Wii, FY09/10 & FY10/11 preceded the 3DS and Wii U, FY15/16 preceded the Switch. The only outlier there is FY13/14, which is when Nintendo had to make major investments in Wii U software development to try and make lemonade from that lemon (and also likely started scrambling how to follow up 3DS and Wii U after they both failed to do what Nintendo hoped they would).
And now we’re seeing R&D spend make a gigantic leap in FY19/20 & FY20/21, far bigger than what we saw with the FY before the release of the Lite/Mariko SoC revision. R&D spend increasing by over 10 billion yen (USD$86.42 million) per year in the past 2 years is, even when accounting for development expense increases due to COVID, a major leap, far beyond what we have seen for iterative revisions of the past. That major jump in expenses needs a proper ROI, not writing off Switch revenues to make up for middling hardware sales that only compare to the Lite for several years.
You talk about how you don’t like the bad rap Nintendo gets about the perception of cheaping out on hardware, but you’re more than happy to perpetuate the similar myth that 3rd-parties care about what hardware enhancements can do for their software far more than Nintendo does. How incongruous of you.
When it comes to hardware capability changes of this magnitude, using it as just 4K uprezzing is like hammering a carpenter nail with a sledgehammer. What utterly wasteful spending that would be. If that was all they wanted to achieve to follow it up with a proper successor in 2026 as you suggested, even Xavier SoCs would be far more available, far cheaper and (by now) already engineered to reach a hybrid console’s desired power envelope. But that’s not what we’re getting, we’re getting the cutting-edge SoC tech from Nvidia currently available. And there’s no compelling reason for why they would do that If all they wanted was 4K uprezzing until a true successor in another 3-4 years. Might as well flush the excess money spent on engineering and manufacturing down the toilet.
Last edited:
Ghostsonplanets
Ghost in the Sales
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Wide and slow GPU compared to the narrow and fast Deck GPU. Also, it will use Arm instead of Zen 2 x86, which should be much more efficient (And also clocked slower). That's how Nintendo will more or less match SteamDeck performance while in portable. Docked, when the silicon can stretch it's legs, will provide performance way beyond SteamDeck.
Crusters
Koopa
- Pronouns
- He/him
Well we definitely didn't see it coming. We're still trying to figure it out ourselves.
We just know some of the 'is' not much at all of the how.
I do know a bigger, but lower clocked processor delivers more performance at less power and heat.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Instro
Like Like
I dunno, I'd be surprised if there wasn't tbh. Just looking at the company history in regards to upgrade devices, they've never shied away from having an exclusive or two. Presumably this is also a successor of sorts, so there would be even more of an interest in doing so from their devs/partners wanting to make something that really takes advantage of the new hardware. Not saying anything massive, could just be a small thing, but at the same time I could envision a Xenoblade 3DS type release as well.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Xenoblade 3DS worked because they had games from more powerful devices that could be ported. This is not the case anymore.
D
Deleted member 2548
Guest
Edit: Post deleted. Nevermind.
My Tulpa
Bob-omb
Naw, they have a bunch of devices ranging from $199-$350 to sell alongside it. It’s ok to have a premium option that’s completely optional, and not reliant on being a base system.
This won’t be a popular opinion either, but I don’t see why, if the RDR2 rumor for Switch is true, they won’t have a version also running on the base Switch as well. A “Witcher 3” type effort.
lol funny
But yea, if SE didn’t see the point in putting effort into porting a native version of this ps3 game for the 100 million current Switch’s…the new model isn’t going to change their minds about anything on this front.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Like Pikmin 4 or the Battle Frontier in ORAS
Z0m3le
Bob-omb
Yes, have you seen inside the Steam Deck? Using ARM means the CPU is only consuming 2 or 3 watts, while the Ryzen cores could use 15 watts to themselves.
We are also talking about Ampere which has a very high flop per watt vs rdna2 and DLSS is black magic. Steam Deck is something Ben Heck could make with enough money and time. This is a much higher production. I think the truth of all of this is that Switch was produced in 2016 and is around 1/4th the performance of steam Deck.
SiG
Chain Chomp
I think there might be a point where such a port would require too many compromises, and not to mention lots of development time, effort, and budget, lest Nintendo themselves are willing to spend for it like what they did with the GTA Collection on Switch.
But anything's possible.
TonyBaduy
Moblin
- Pronouns
- He/Him
I don't understand why some think the Switch 4k was delayed, sure, the OLED could have, but this one relied entirely on the development of the Orin chip line, which is partially finalized now, and I doubt Orin was too impacted by COVID. I guess ignorance could be the reason, but in any case, the only Switch Pro that exists are the Switches that use Mariko, which are the red box one, the Lite and Oled. They could have been more powerful, but it all went to efficiency gains for longer battery life.
So the Switch 4k, being a giant generational leap from raw efficiency + DLSS + some RT is more than enough to be considered a new gen, even if Nintendo says otherwise at some point. This was not going to come out any time before Orin was completed, as it's a variant of it, thus the Switch 4k was never intended for last year or any other of the previous years, but this/early next year (I guess it could get delayed more if there are issues, Nate will probably tell us more about this).
So the Switch 4k, being a giant generational leap from raw efficiency + DLSS + some RT is more than enough to be considered a new gen, even if Nintendo says otherwise at some point. This was not going to come out any time before Orin was completed, as it's a variant of it, thus the Switch 4k was never intended for last year or any other of the previous years, but this/early next year (I guess it could get delayed more if there are issues, Nate will probably tell us more about this).
mariodk18
Install Base Forum Namer
Are we thinking Nintendo announces this the same way as the lite and OLED? Or will they build it up more beforehand like the original switch? Maybe a dedicated event? I believe the original n3DS introduction video discussed it’s additional controls and improved features.
My Tulpa
Bob-omb
This was from the financial results briefing just a month ago:
Furukawa: “we will aim for a sixth year of growth, something never before experienced with our dedicated video game platform business.
Our aim of a sixth year of growth is underpinned by three factors.
…
Second, I would like to explain how motivations for purchase have diversified.
Nintendo Switch – OLED Model, with its large, vibrant screen is off to a good start since its launch on Oct. 8.
Its sales trends show that many consumers who purchased a system at launch around five years ago are now interested in replacing it with a new Nintendo Switch.
As seen in the purchasing trends for Nintendo Switch – OLED Model, motivations behind system purchases have diversified. Some are buying a Nintendo Switch system for the first time, while others are buying a second one, and still others are replacing their existing system with Nintendo Switch – OLED Model.
When Nintendo Switch first launched, it was common for households to purchase a single system. But more and more families now own multiple systems.
With the increase in titles that can be enjoyed individually, and the growing trend of playing Nintendo Switch in handheld mode, we continue to strive to expand our install base to one Nintendo Switch per person. We believe there is even further room for the Nintendo Switch install base to grow.” Second, I would like to explain how motivations for purchase have diversified.
Nintendo Switch – OLED Model, with its large, vibrant screen is off to a good start since its launch on Oct. 8.
Its sales trends show that many consumers who purchased a system at launch around five years ago are now interested in replacing it with a new Nintendo Switch.
As seen in the purchasing trends for Nintendo Switch – OLED Model, motivations behind system purchases have diversified. Some are buying a Nintendo Switch system for the first time, while others are buying a second one, and still others are replacing their existing system with Nintendo Switch – OLED Model.
When Nintendo Switch first launched, it was common for households to purchase a single system. But more and more families now own multiple systems.
With the increase in titles that can be enjoyed individually, and the growing trend of playing Nintendo Switch in handheld mode, we continue to strive to expand our install base to one Nintendo Switch per person. We believe there is even further room for the Nintendo Switch install base to grow.”
Yes, this isn’t growth specific to just hardware units YoY…but it does indicate Nintendo is bullish on year 6 and what new model options do to help momentum (they don’t feel they hit the peak of the system last year)
OLED Switch, they feel, is responsible for the growth seen in year 5. I don’t believe they feel OLED alone will keep momentum growth for year 6. I would have to imagine they they are talking about another model option in Q3/Q4 to act similar to the OLED from this last year.
Their hardware guidance is going to be conservative and hesitant cause of a bunch of factors I imagine, so I’m not expecting to be able to glean much from that,
Only because just the OLED screen and 32 gb extra storage made the Mariko Switch $50 more.
This new model will have the same screen…plus a bunch of newly minted modern tech in it?
From what I understand Nintendo had to price the OLED at $350 in order to not have it be a loss per unit sale?
I think it will sell very well at $499, tbh.
A $400 Switch would still only appeal to a small portion of gamers who really need Switch games to look/run better than they currently do.
Yea I guess I’m gonna have to wait and see what all these exclusives launching along side this new model are I suppose before I will change my opinion on this.
They stopped making 3ds systems all together 3 years after the Switch launched. The 3ds had a 9 year lifespan, in the end.
Im just taking Nintendo’s words to heart when they keep talking about extending the Switch well beyond we we think of a conventional hardware lifecycle.
Launching a successor 6 years in, still supporting the systems with games for another couple of years, but severely ramping down releases on them and focusing more and more output on the new model…and then stopping production of the previous devices 2-3 years later…is, like, exactly how they approached their last portable console lifecycle.
So that’s why I don’t expect this with the Switch.
I’m not ignoring all the hardware stuff the new model apparently has. It’s amazing to me as well.
I’m just expecting Nintendo to mainly only use this hardware to make Nintendo Switch games look/run better.
Sure, there will be a couple cases like 1-2 Switch or Labo where Nintendo wants to show off the unique properties of the hardware…but they will still mostly ignore those properties for most their titles.
It’s absolutely worth the investment if this upgrade model keeps engagement in the Switch library high for the next 4-5 years where it otherwise would decline without it, for sure it’s worth it.
If Nintendo sells 15-20 million 4K Switch’s it’s first year (like the ps5 and ps4 did), and all the other models sell only 1-3 million combined over the next 2 years (like the ps3 and ps4 did after their successor launched)…then I will agree with you.
I don’t expect the 4k Switch to represent 90% of Switch’s sold for the two years after it launches.
I expect it to be more in line with ps4 pro/One X %’s
You clearly made your mind up, so I don’t know why im bothering. But your way to hung up about that one quote about AMD engineers figuring out ways Nintendo didn’t think of. That was at the micro level, where they wanted to include a circuit for Wii, but AMD found a way to do it with just 1 circuit. It wasn’t like AMD changes Nintendos mind about BC method, it was just they found slightly more elegant engineering solutions than Nintendo would have thought of.
Nintendo wanted a near 100% accurate BC solution that worked on every game out of the box. And the way they achieved that, was with ppc750 and a custom gpu. End of story.
LiC
Member
We'll never know what happened internally, and I think one could imagine a scenario that led to a more powerful Switch model being delayed. But you're right that this specific Switch model, using T239/GA10F, never could have come out any earlier than late this year.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Well, more closer to 10x. Also without DLSS. Only adding to your point.
PS3 was also discontinued in 2017. And it’s a min of 87.41M, it probably did a bit more like 89-90M. It lived a long life.
carbonaxiom
Piranha Plant
This might actually be less a joke than most here realize. Nintendo could very well just solve the backwards compatibility/cross-gen issue by making the OG Switch version of new games cloud only, or at least allow third party developers to do so.
SiG
Chain Chomp
I guess I can say that these boards have a healthy amount of skepticism and rightfully so. However I would refrain from assuming Nintendo will simply stick to lower power profiles "just because" and other assumptions that their development teams only want "underpowered hardware". Mind you even Iwata had to admit the difficulties of developing for the N64.
I also think the pandemic, global chip shortage, Suez incident, and most recently price inflation all play major factors into their decision making, so it's really hard to say something is truly finalized when everything is still in flux. I understand some decisions have been made years in advance, and the leak more or less confirms it, but so does it also confirm that the chip we knew as "Dane" underwent several further revisions. Not to mention the gigaleak has pretty much made them more cautious about how projects under wraps are handled, so I wouldn't be surprised if this latest leak is already "old".
In short, it's good to keep expectations in check but also allow one to have a healthy amount of (pleasant) surprises too. For me, the news of DLSS in the API is exciting, but I don't want to start comparing the product to the current "next-gen" consoles. Then there's the whole argument of whether or not Nintendo will also have a healthy amount of 3rd party exclusives to drive this new revision, too.
I also think the pandemic, global chip shortage, Suez incident, and most recently price inflation all play major factors into their decision making, so it's really hard to say something is truly finalized when everything is still in flux. I understand some decisions have been made years in advance, and the leak more or less confirms it, but so does it also confirm that the chip we knew as "Dane" underwent several further revisions. Not to mention the gigaleak has pretty much made them more cautious about how projects under wraps are handled, so I wouldn't be surprised if this latest leak is already "old".
In short, it's good to keep expectations in check but also allow one to have a healthy amount of (pleasant) surprises too. For me, the news of DLSS in the API is exciting, but I don't want to start comparing the product to the current "next-gen" consoles. Then there's the whole argument of whether or not Nintendo will also have a healthy amount of 3rd party exclusives to drive this new revision, too.
Simba1
Bob-omb
Yeah, I missed that, but in any case.
We 1st need to see how this FY year will end exactly (clear numbers), and than at end of April they will say in numbers what exactly are new FY years goals,
only than for sure we can say if they really aiming for better revenue (net sales).
But in any case, I dont see how sales effect things we discussing currently..
Actually sales in current FY (ending at end of this month) are lower than those in previous FY for same time period, not only in Switch units sales but talking about revenue and profit.
But yeah, every new revision launch effects sales.
Point that Switch OLED has $50 higher price point than regular Switch doesnt mean that cost $50 cost more in production, it could easily cost only $20-30 more than regular Switch but they make it having $50 higher price point and actually having higher profit margin compared to regular Switch.
Like I wrote, Switch OLED is selling at $350 simple because was improved Switch model compared to regular model that was selling great $300 at any case and they were having limited supply, so make sense to selling at $350.
Nintendo if they wanted, they could launch OLED at $299 and make price cut of regular to $249 and still sell them at profit, but that would be bad bussines decision when you have great sales in any case and you have supple issues.
I am willing to be that there is no chance for $499 price point.
Not only that we dont talk only about simple revision and just another higher priced option, but we actually talking about unit that will be main new unit,
so Nintendo will want more affordable price point in any case, and $399 sounds like perfect price point, especially when they move OLED to $299.
Its not point only about new potential users, but actually t's more about current Switch owners upgrading to this next gen Switch.
True, we will need to wait to see, not only about exclusive games, but also about exact hardware, price point, launch year...
3DS had very long life, thats not usual life span, when Nintendo said longer than usual life span, they thought about usual life span of home consoles, so longer than 5-6 years.
OK, lets say 2-3 years of OLED production and support of current Switch models after new Switch is launched, earliest when this new Switch could be launched is end of this year and easily could slip to next year, so that makes around 8-9 years of life span of Tegra X1 based models and support, thats quite long in any case.
If they wanted just a system that looks and runs current Switch games better, they could simple release New 3DS type of DSi type of revision, so make little higher clocks and add 2GB of RAM more and call it a day, not make completely new custom chip with totally new features.
But obviously this is much more than that, this real next gen Switch in any case not just a simple revision, this is very obvious new main Switch model going forward and with that huge power difference its expected not only that will have exclusive games but also that games will be made just for that model in one point.
No, you don't invest resources in basically full next gen just to be another revision, there was no need for that if they want simple regular sales effect with regular revisions, like I wrote they could simple do New 3DS or DSi type of revision, this much more even compared to PS4 Pro or Xbox One X.
Like I wrote, today it would be very hard to produce and ship in 1st year more than around 15m units of new console. I dont saying it would/will sell 15m units in 1st year, but its not impossible.
Saying that, its very hard to talk about sales when we dont when exactly will be launched, what exactly hardware will have, what will be launch games, what will be exact price point, how much consoles Nintendo could produce..
This thing will definitely be much more popular than PS4 Pro/Xbox One X compared to PS4/XB1 based models, if I am right about pricing,
I expecting around 50% sales for this new Switch of all Switch units sales in 1st full year (counting that there is no big supply issues that will effect sales of new model).
Last edited:
BlueKing
Octorok
Furukawa states in the most recent financials that the OLED has a smaller profit margin that the original Switch, so no that extra $50 doesn’t make the OLED more profitable.
Simba1
Bob-omb
Don't take PR statements like absolute truth, they are saying things that fits them currently most, for instance like they were saying that Switch is not replacement for 3DS, or no new 3DS model and than 2 week later new model is annouced..
So he will definitely not say it has higher profit margin than regular Switch and in same time has $50 higher price point.
I really have hard time believing that basically OLED screen and 32GB more internal memory makes even $50 difference not to mention more than that,
OLED screens are now cheaper than ever, I mean you now have phones with 4GB/128GB (RAM/internal) and 6.5" OLED screen for around $150.
My guess is that difference cost is maybe around $30.
Last edited:
Kenka
Like Like
- Pronouns
- He/Him
One implication of this line of thought is that the Switch might stick around on the shelves long after the succ is introduced. And I am ok with that.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
If the modding scene has people with mobile phones emulating the switch, I don’t think this device with its supposed specs is going to have any issue when Nintendo is the one making the device along with nVidia. They have the documentation of the device.
Though, in that case I’m more curious if they would just make a virtual switch container in that case.
BlueKing
Octorok
So you are saying that Furukawa lied in an official Q&A with stock holders?
ShadowFox08
Paratroopa
Yeah I don't blame you for thinking this
You know .. I can see a world where Nintendo be over confident enough to sell the hybrid at 500. I don't think it's likely at all, but they can test the waters to see how it sells, and if it flops, a price decrease. But they are in the best position to ..
But I'm thinking two sku models is possible. $400 for 64-128GB and $500 for 256 GB. Coincidently this matches Steam Desk SKU models
Simba1
Bob-omb
Well if they lied before, I don't see why wouldnt again, I mean they cant prove it in any case.
Dont forget that Bloomberg reported that Switch OLED costs are only around $10 higher compared to regular Switch,
of course Nintendo deny that report (because raises question why selling than $50 more!?), but I really cant see how can cost $50 more than regular Switch.
Last edited:
It is likely that even though the profit per oled sold is lower than that of the normal Switch, they are still a good chunk of profit.
Switch's technology will have been getting cheaper along the years (enough to release a Lite version), and they still don't reduce the price. The console probably have a very big profit per unit sold
Switch's technology will have been getting cheaper along the years (enough to release a Lite version), and they still don't reduce the price. The console probably have a very big profit per unit sold
Having a smaller profit margin, doesnt necesarily mean its not more profitable.
1£ + 10% margin = 10 c profit
5£ + 10% margin = 50c profit
Simba1
Bob-omb
Yeah, Switch was selling with profit from day one, now 6 years later, even if Covid and chip shortages made some prices go up,
Nintendo cost currently are probably around $200 (but less than $250 in any case) per Switch unit.
Thats why probably some people expecting $499 price point for new Switch, they think Switch is not selling at profit or with minimal profit margin,
so they think that new Switch hardware need to sell at $499 to be sold with profit.
While reality is that Nintendo has huge profit margin on current models.
Last edited:
BlueKing
Octorok
I think you are the one that needs proof for a statement like that.
PedroNavajas
Boo
- Pronouns
- He, him
There is going to be a problem with direct comparison with the deck. I fully expect Switch 4k to be more powerful when compared Watt for Watt. However, I expect most comparisons to be made against deck Maximum clocks, even if you get barely about one hour of battery on the deck at full power.
Don't expect that. The difference is going to be much smaller. Probably significantly less than 50%.
Last edited:
Last edited:
