StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

[YolkFolk]

If they can get the GPU to Series S level, then it likely would shoot to being a fair bit ahead of the One X and right behind the PS5.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Well, it primarily depends on the node/clock IMHO.

If they can get the GPU to Series S level, then it likely would shoot to being a fair bit ahead of the One X and right behind the PS5.

Something I feel people need to remember is the cost for resolution and RT at higher resolutions are more exponential rather than linear.

It takes more than double the processing power when GPU is bound to get the same framerate at the same quality settings when going from 1080p to 1440p, 4K .etc, because any resolution dependant effect scales up as well, even with Quarter/Half Res implementations, the effect resolution is increasing.

And the Series S|X and PS5 are in an even worse-off scenario versus Drake in that regard as not only does their potential counter to that exponential cost also run on the shader cores (and seemingly can cause very weird issues like in Tiny Tina's Wonderlands having 4K run better than 1440p), a lot of the shader cores for those systems has to go to compensating the feeble RT performance the systems have when devs want to use RT.

That exponential cost to increase resolution at the same framerate when GPU bound is what makes DLSS so impressive as it sort of dodges most of that or all of it if there is enough Tensor Cores/The algorithm is optimized enough because the workload is parallelized, allowing the shader cores to run as if they were just at their lower resolution.

Not to mention NVIDIA's uArch pipeline and the RT cores themselves are upwards of 3 times more powerful than the Infinity-Cache-less Ray Accelerators in the Seires S|X/PS5. Also ditto on BVH Traversal which saves on CPU and Shader resources which the RDNA2 RA's lack entirely.\

It's very much a case of how much can you achieve out of hardware by working smarter rather than harder.
We don't know that as we don't know how smartly Nintendo and NVIDIA will apply the potential that a 12SM Ampere+ (As it does have access to L3 Cache so it should be better per-FLOP than Destkop Ampere) GPU should have.

No, literally no. STOP

Back I say



I said get BACK

 

[Dakhil]

Well, it primarily depends on the node/clock IMHO.

I don't expect Nintendo to have the CPU and GPU on Drake run at aggressively high frequencies.

I do think the CPU and GPU frequencies Nvidia posted for the Jetson AGX Orin (32 GB) module running at a TDP of 40 W are possibly the frequencies Nintendo could have the CPU and GPU on Drake run at, especially if Nintendo decided to have Drake fabricated using TSMC's N6 process node, and if TSMC's N6 process node could allow the CPU and GPU on Drake to run at the frequencies Nvidia posted for the Jetson AGX Orin (32 GB) module running at a TDP of 40 W at a lower TDP (e.g. 20 W).

 

[Ojoloco]

do any of you have a link to the drake leak info and the chip specs?

 

[Dakhil]

do any of you have a link to the drake leak info and the chip specs?

I've provided links to that info in the OP.

 

[Deleted member 1324]

No, literally no. STOP

Back I say



I said get BACK

There's no reason why Drake won't have better image quality than Series S and potentially PS5 in certain multiplatform games due to 4k DLSS actually having better IQ than native 2160p (which PS5 rarely hits nevermind Series S which floats between 900p-1440p in most games).

I don't expect much RT performance from Drake though. Developers will be using every grain of performance just getting exclusive Series S/X + PS5 games to run on it nevermind using RT. I think we might get 1/4 reflections or RT AO in select games. Metro Exodus does do a great job at limited RT on Steam Deck though I suppose so anything is possible.

 

[ILikeFeet]

There's no reason why Drake won't have better image quality than Series S and potentially PS5 in certain multiplatform games due to 4k DLSS actually having better IQ than native 2160p (which PS5 rarely hits nevermind Series S which floats between 900p-1440p in most games).

I don't expect this. a lot of PS5/Series X games are starting from higher input resolutions before hitting 4K. and if Drake were to get the same games, the input res would also be lower. best we could hope for in this case would be 1440p output to Series X/PS5's 4K

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

There's no reason why Drake won't have better image quality than Series S and potentially PS5 in certain multiplatform games due to 4k DLSS actually having better IQ than native 2160p (which PS5 rarely hits nevermind Series S which floats between 900p-1440p in most games).

Their reasons for struggling to hit a target resolution are more mixed. Series S is more memory bandwidth limited here while PS5 is GPU limited I’d wager. While switch 2 will have a trick up it’s sleeve to be able to handle higher resolutions, the switch first has to be able to properly render some of these games That are targeting a resolution above 1080p. So, for conversation sake let’s put it into more context:

Series S|X and PS5 internally are rendering graphics at say 1440p but outputting at 2160p to display for the latter 2. That is to say, the quality they have is suitable for a 1440p display. Series S is limited and why it struggles to maintain it. PS5 and SX can do 1440p, but are pushed beyond that and show that they struggle.

Switch 2 games will get downgraded versions of the Series S version that is suitable for a 1080p, and go up from there. But it will not really be “right behind the PS5”


It’s just not realistic.

Like Dakhil said, One X with DLSS is a very good point of comparison to look at imo. That is to say, with DLSS, it can resolve an image similar to the One X which was 4k One S games

I don't expect much RT performance from Drake though. Developers will be using every grain of performance just getting exclusive Series S/X + PS5 games to run on it nevermind using RT. I think we might get 1/4 reflections or RT AO in select games. Metro Exodus does do a great job at limited RT on Steam Deck though I suppose so anything is possible.

The RT in Drake cannot be compared to the pitifully awful RT in the other consoles. It’s apples to oranges there.

NVidia’s implementation is way ahead of the AMDs.

RDNA2 RT performance factors in things such as the Infinity cache which the consoles completely lack, so their RT is even worse than RDNA2, which is already worse than Ampere in RT.

We will have to wait and see first how it truly pans out for Drake before drawing a hasty conclusion that “because this can’t do it well, this for sure will not do it” since it’s more nuanced than that.


That said, the reason for my other post simply put is that setting expectations so high will just lead you to disappointment and sets others who are not tech literate enough to this unrealistic standard. No one in the thread was really saying that the switch was going in that direction before, but Alovon with his insane optimism that isn’t realistic here at all put the performance of it so high that it should be called out before others actually believe it non-ironically. It’s not good.



Like, the next switch will be a big improvement over the current switch, but let’s not put some unrealistic expectations into peoples heads. This is still a portable device that will be powered by a battery and by a tiny fan when it is docked to cool it. Sure it will use more efficient architecture, and will also have tricks up its sleeve, but not at all in any facet will it be able to compete with the highest and gaming consoles, period.

And the highest end are: PS5 + Series X


Let us not forget that this is a very technical thread, so what you say here people will assume it is how it is. We have people that read the thread left and right, even though most of them don’t comment in this thread. They may not understand everything, but they do understand the words “right behind the PS5“, you don’t have to be technically literate to understand what those words mean.


Already had someone that attempted to use Gflops as a comparison point between the switch, the PS3 and PS4 when the switch is closer to the PS4 than it is to the PS3 regardless of how you slice it. So the information they were comparing it to was completely wrong and misguided while also being misattributed.

 

[Aether]

There will be edge cases where the architecture of the switch will have a leg up, and some of its strengths will compensate some of its weaknesses, but you just cant honestly expect it to reacht Series S/X/PS5 , there is just to much of a gap in terms of power the switch can pump into the SoC (Mobile), or how well it can cool the SoC in that small form factor (Docked).

 

[Kenka]

Everyone suggesting a Drake within the ballpark of an Xbox One X or higher is fucking with you.

 

[Dekuman]

I've said this before, would be so nice once this is announced and we get a spec leak and we can move on to what it can actually achieve based on the specs.

Every few weeks we get a wave of people tut-tutting about expectations like they know something, but it ends up being just gaslighting for attention.

 

[Mr Swine]

As long as Switch 2 reaches/exceeds PS4 Pro resolution through DLSS while producing better graphics than Pro/One X with stable frames I’m good

 

[TinyPikachu]

As long as Switch 2 reaches/exceeds PS4 Pro resolution through DLSS while producing better graphics than Pro/One X with stable frames I’m good

I just want to play Breath of the Wild and Metroid Dread in 1080p 60FPS at the very least

Also Three Hopes updates

 

[Hermii]

I just want to play Breath of the Wild and Metroid Dread in 1080p 60FPS at the very least

Also Three Hopes updates

For botw 2, I could see Nintendo letting 4k be the only option even though the hardware could easily do 60fps at lower res.

If Metroid gets patched, it would probably be 4k60.

 

[ILikeFeet]

I just want to play Breath of the Wild and Metroid Dread in 1080p 60FPS at the very least

Also Three Hopes updates

good news, Three Hopes won't need an update for 60fps

 

[chocolate_supra]

I just want to play Breath of the Wild and Metroid Dread in 1080p 60FPS at the very least

Also Three Hopes updates

This is sort of where I'm at. When I first started hearing about the new hardware all I was thinking was "please something that'll get Xenoblade up to 1080p and sustain it during weather effects" like that's really all I ask. The leak and the specs that go higher than initially expected and all that are just a cherry on top. I'd likely be happy with the absolute lowest this hardware is potentially capable of.

 

[Instro]

Man Xenoblade 2 would look insane with better IQ. Finally really putting time into the game after owning it for years. Was trying to hold out for a more powerful Switch, but with Xenoblade 3 around the corner seems kind of pointless. Like legit though wandering through Uraya right now, I could see this game blowing people away if/when it gets a glow up on Drake.

 

[Crusters]

Their reasons for struggling to hit a target resolution are more mixed. Series S is more memory bandwidth limited here while PS5 is GPU limited I’d wager. While switch 2 will have a trick up it’s sleeve to be able to handle higher resolutions, the switch first has to be able to properly render some of these games That are targeting a resolution above 1080p. So, for conversation sake let’s put it into more context:

Series S|X and PS5 internally are rendering graphics at say 1440p but outputting at 2160p to display for the latter 2. That is to say, the quality they have is suitable for a 1440p display. Series S is limited and why it struggles to maintain it. PS5 and SX can do 1440p, but are pushed beyond that and show that they struggle.

Switch 2 games will get downgraded versions of the Series S version that is suitable for a 1080p, and go up from there. But it will not really be “right behind the PS5”


It’s just not realistic.

Like Dakhil said, One X with DLSS is a very good point of comparison to look at imo.

The RT in Drake cannot be compared to the pitifully awful RT in the other consoles. It’s apples to oranges there.

NVidia’s implementation is way ahead of the AMDs.

RDNA2 RT performance factors in things such as the Infinity cache which the consoles completely lack, so their RT is even worse than RDNA2, which is already worse than Ampere in RT.

We will have to wait and see first how it truly pans out for Drake before drawing a hasty conclusion that “because this can’t do it well, this for sure will not do it” since it’s more nuanced than that.


That said, the reason for my other post simply put is that setting expectations so high will just lead you to disappointment and sets others who are not tech literate enough to this unrealistic standard. No one in the thread was really saying that the switch was going in that direction before, but Alovon with his insane optimism that isn’t realistic here at all put the performance of it so high that it should be called out before others actually believe it non-ironically. It’s not good.



Like, the next switch will be a big improvement over the current switch, but let’s not put some unrealistic expectations into peoples heads. This is still a portable device that will be powered by a battery and by a tiny fan when it is docked to cool it. Sure it will use more efficient architecture, and will also have tricks up its sleeve, but not at all in any facet will it be able to compete with the highest and gaming consoles, period.

And the highest end are: PS5 + Series X


Let us not forget that this is a very technical thread, so what you say here people will assume it is how it is. We have people that read the thread left and right, even though most of them don’t comment in this thread. They may not understand everything, but they do understand the words “right behind the PS5“, you don’t have to be technically literate to understand what those words mean.


Already had someone that attempted to use Gflops as a comparison point between the switch, the PS3 and PS4 when the switch is closer to the PS4 then it is to the PS3 regardless of how you slice it. So the information they were comparing it to was completely wrong and misguided while also being misattributed.

I blame incidents like this in no small part on the absolutely atrocious misinformation marketing campaign surrounding the ps360, that oversold the performance and capability of those consoles by ludicrous levels.

 

[Deleted member 887]

Like, the next switch will be a big improvement over the current switch, but let’s not put some unrealistic expectations into peoples heads. This is still a portable device that will be powered by a battery and by a tiny fan when it is docked to cool it. Sure it will use more efficient architecture, and will also have tricks up its sleeve, but not at all in any facet will it be able to compete with the highest and gaming consoles, period.

Let’s not forget the cross-gen period, either. Even if the NuSwitch we’re spec-for-spec identical to a PS4Pro, we shouldn’t expect the same kind out output. A mature platform pushed forward by cross-gen with its successor will not look the same as a new platform in cross-gen with its predecessor.

Non-technical folk often mix up feature sets with raw power. Drake is an odd piece of hardware - as a feature set it represents a real leap over current-gen hardware, taking RT and adding Tensor cores. But it is likely more like last gen in terms of power/clocks - this isn’t “because Nintendo” but “because miniaturization.”

 

[Dekuman]

Let’s not forget the cross-gen period, either. Even if the NuSwitch we’re spec-for-spec identical to a PS4Pro, we shouldn’t expect the same kind out output. A mature platform pushed forward by cross-gen with its successor will not look the same as a new platform in cross-gen with its predecessor.

Non-technical folk often mix up feature sets with raw power. Drake is an odd piece of hardware - as a feature set it represents a real leap over current-gen hardware, taking RT and adding Tensor cores. But it is likely more like last gen in terms of power/clocks - this isn’t “because Nintendo” but “because miniaturization.”

Can't wait for fanboys to declare Drake is PS4 tech unironically like they routinely compare the X1 to the ancient PS3 and 360

 

[ILikeFeet]

people: you can't launch during a component shortage

apple: hold my beer

Report: Apple is gearing up to launch a ‘flood’ of new devices starting this fall

New iPhones, Macs, Watches, and more.

www.theverge.com

 

[Kenka]

We have been talking about graphics for literally years while what we should ask for is anything that ensures day 1 versions of next gen games.

 

[davec00ke]

We have been talking about graphics for literally years while what we should ask for is anything that ensures day 1 versions of next gen games.

NO!

If you want a console to play big 3rd party games you should buy it from another brand, it's not a market Nintendo cares for.

 

[Hermii]

We have been talking about graphics for literally years while what we should ask for is anything that ensures day 1 versions of next gen games.

Even if Nintendo made a system that was better than series s in every way, it wouldn’t ensure that.

 

[Dekuman]

Even if Nintendo made a system that was better than series s in every way, it wouldn’t ensure that.

Like i said, whatever the reason Series S exists, it's a very convenient lower bound for the next Switch's ports.
Unless there are technical or business reasons (e.g. bought exclusives), i suspect most games will get ported. 3rd parties don't want to turn down money, and the extent so many have gone to get a piece of the Switch pie is proof of that. A successor iterative platform to one of the best selling consoles is a no brainer.

 

[ILikeFeet]

We have been talking about graphics for literally years while what we should ask for is anything that ensures day 1 versions of next gen games.

gpu core counts are the only think we know. for what you want, we need a leak on the cpu and memory. the bare minimum is achievable for nintendo though, so it's a matter of how high are they willing to go

 

[davec00ke]

The main reason the Series S exists is because the days of console price reductions are over and Xbox didn't want lumbered only selling a $499 console the whole generation. It the same reason why people who keep saying the next Switch will be $450 - $500 are wrong.

 

[ArchedThunder]

Switch 4k will probably have games with IQ as clean as PS5/XSX, but it won’t be in ports of games from those systems, that’s for sure.
The system won’t match Series S’s visual capabilities, but games will still look great and exclusives will probably often have a cleaner IQ than most XSS games. It’s kinda like how some games are higher res on One X than Series S, but with lower quality graphics. People shouldn’t expect much more than PS4 quality visuals at a higher resolution (via DLSS) with a few little extra bells and whistles here and there.
Honestly for ports of PS5/XSX|S ports to Switch 4k we’ll probably be looking at visuals paired down from Series S with base resolution before DLSS being 720p or lower. They’ll be much more handsome ports than a lot of Switch’s “impossible ports” but they will still be far away from the graphical quality and IQ of PS5/XSX.
Switch 4k will be a little beast that punches above its weight, but it’s not going to be a miracle machine.

However the storage speed will probably be the real limiting factor for ports, Switch 4k’s storage and game card speed will likely be nothing compared to the other consoles’ SSDs.

 

[Tentacle-tropes]

Like i said, whatever the reason Series S exists, it's a very convenient lower bound for the next Switch's ports.
Unless there are technical or business reasons (e.g. bought exclusives), i suspect most games will get ported. 3rd parties don't want to turn down money, and the extent so many have gone to get a piece of the Switch pie is proof of that. A successor iterative platform to one of the best selling consoles is a no brainer.

I’ve heard the underlined so many times that I’ve lost count now. I expect much the same as with the current Switch: indies, mobile, mid tier, past gen games, & a spattering of current gen. There will always be reasons why 3rd party companies don’t bring their games over regardless of if they are missing money or being a no brainer.

 

[John Omaha]

We have been talking about graphics for literally years while what we should ask for is anything that ensures day 1 versions of next gen games.

It's not just a technical problem.

 

[Dakhil]

Everyone suggesting a Drake within the ballpark of an Xbox One X or higher is fucking with you.

Are you talking about before or after DLSS is enabled?

 

[Kenka]

gpu core counts are the only think we know. for what you want, we need a leak on the cpu and memory. the bare minimum is achievable for nintendo though, so it's a matter of how high are they willing to go

Yeah. And that's what matters. We don't need posts that hype up a ubermachine that will not exist anyway in any shape or form.

It's not just a technical problem.

Bingo. We should talk more about the non-hardware side of things as well when we talk about the successor to the Switch. Personally, I would like to see clues about the support of Nanite, UE5, or any new tech used by next gen consoles (variable shades, fast I/O, etc)

 

[YolkFolk]

Are you talking about before or after DLSS is enabled?

I’d actually be blown away with PS4 Pro after DLSS.

 

[Kenka]

Are you talking about before or after DLSS is enabled?

Sorry to disappoint but it doesn't really matter, actually.

DLSS and reconstructive technics in general are a trade-off between performance and IQ. If you want more of former, you may choose to not use it. If you want more IQ, you add it in. Is it a game changer? In my opinion no, because you are still bound to the basic limitations of rasterization. Why not then use the unit's soc real estate and power for purely drawing pixels?

Personally, I am not convinced of DLSS relevance at the power draws (and hence frame rates) we are discussing. And a low engraving node would not change that. Any game going for it would run at 30 FPS or 40 FPS at best. To me, it's simply a waste if the screen can't refresh at 120 Hz and its divisors. That's a lot of ifs for it to be relevant.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Yeah. And that's what matters. We don't need posts that hype up a ubermachine that will not exist anyway in any shape or form.

literally who? what are you even talking about? you keep talking about something in vague terms but you don't actually quote this ubermachine you claim people are referencing

 

[ArchedThunder]

Sorry to disappoint but it doesn't really matter, actually.

DLSS and reconstructive technics in general are a trade-off between performance and IQ. If you want more of former, you may choose to not use it. If you want more IQ, you add it in. Is it a game changer? In my opinion no, because you are still bound to the basic limitations of rasterization. Why not then use the unit's soc real estate and power for purely drawing pixels?

Personally, I am not convinced of DLSS relevance at the power draws (and hence frame rates) we are discussing. And a low engraving node would not change that. Any game going for it would run at 30 FPS or 40 FPS at best. To me, it's simply a waste if the screen can't refresh at 120 Hz and its divisors. That's a lot of ifs for it to be relevant.

DLSS has better performance and lower power draw than native as well as great (sometimes better than native) IQ…
A lot of games will be 30fps, but that’s already true on Switch. A lot 60fps games will probably go for a lower output, like 1440p, which is still clean as hell.

 

[mariodk18]

Why are you saying DLSS doesn’t matter

 

[Dakhil]

people: you can't launch during a component shortage

apple: hold my beer

Report: Apple is gearing up to launch a ‘flood’ of new devices starting this fall

New iPhones, Macs, Watches, and more.

www.theverge.com

Turns out Apple being one of the world's most valuable and richest companies has perks, such as being able to pay to have temporary, exclusive access to TSMC's newest process node before other companies, have priority for materials, etc.

 

[Dekuman]

I’ve heard the underlined so many times that I’ve lost count now. I expect much the same as with the current Switch: indies, mobile, mid tier, past gen games, & a spattering of current gen. There will always be reasons why 3rd party companies don’t bring their games over regardless of if they are missing money or being a no brainer.

Yes there will be some devs/pubs/games that miss the console, but it all comes down to pipeline and ease of conversion. Thats what I mean by devs don't like to turn down money.

Having support of the biggest game engines out there helped Switch out a ton. If 3rd parties can easily take their work and convert to Switch 2/4K/Pro they will do it.

 

[Tentacle-tropes]

Yes there will be some devs/pubs/games that miss the console, but it all comes down to pipeline and ease of conversion. Thats what I mean by devs don't like to turn down money.

Having support of the biggest game engines out there helped Switch out a ton. If 3rd parties can easily take their work and convert to Switch 2/4K/Pro they will do it.

Again we’ve heard that line about Switch. I’m not expecting it to change much for the Drake. More pipelines could be started now to get ready for an eventual new machine suet they aren’t. Politics always gets in the way even if the work were easy.

Ultimately we’ll see but I remain skeptical considering what we have seen from 3rd parties historically & just from this gen alone.

 

[mariodk18]

Again we’ve heard that line about Switch. I’m not expecting it to change much for the Drake. More pipelines could be started now to get ready for an eventual new machine suet they aren’t. Politics always gets in the way even if the work were easy.

Ultimately we’ll see but I remain skeptical considering what we have seen from 3rd parties historically & just from this gen alone.

Regardless the conversations will be much more interesting once we see actual Drake exclusive games and release dates.

 

[ILikeFeet]

Turns out Apple being one of the world's most valuable and richest companies has perks, such as being able to pay to have temporary, exclusive access to TSMC's newest process node before other companies, have priority for materials, etc.

it's easy to say that, but we can point to every other product that launched in the past year as well. products that start production will launch, shortages be damned. it'll just take longer to fulfill demand

unless you're samsung, of course

 

[EvilChameleon]

I feel like I ask this every so often; so what's the current consensus? Switch 2 or Switch Pro in the same vein as the PS4 Pro and the XBOX One X?

 

[ILikeFeet]

I feel like I ask this every so often; so what's the current consensus? Switch 2 or Switch Pro in the same vein as the PS4 Pro and the XBOX One X?

effectively switch 2. what they actually call it is up for discussion

 

[mariodk18]

I feel like I ask this every so often; so what's the current consensus? Switch 2 or Switch Pro in the same vein as the PS4 Pro and the XBOX One X?

Both. The hardware is next-gen on paper, but most of us don’t think Nintendo will advertise it that way…at least not at first. The first two years will have cross-gen games, so don’t expect Nintendo Drake exclusives until 2024 at the earliest. By then they might ramp up marketing and discontinue one of the OG models.

I think the games will sell the hardware. They may not call it next-gen, but MK10 exclusively on Drake will.

 

[Dekuman]

Again we’ve heard that line about Switch. I’m not expecting it to change much for the Drake. More pipelines could be started now to get ready for an eventual new machine suet they aren’t. Politics always gets in the way even if the work were easy.

Ultimately we’ll see but I remain skeptical considering what we have seen from 3rd parties historically & just from this gen alone.

Biggest difference is buy-in. Switch started with tepid 3rd party support, so it missed out on a lot of multiplats during the peak years of the PS4/XONE era, or the games that could make it were put into production after they had released so fans like us put them into the 'late port' category. or as surprise 'impossible ports' while hand wrining about certain specific games not making it. There's certainly a bit of not appreciating what we did get as well.

That's not to mention the Switch 2 specs puts it squarely in range of the lowest common denominator low-end PC gaming rigs, which means, if it runs on a PC, it can run on it. Switch was a bit too far behind to fit into that.

 

[Bosintang]

people: you can't launch during a component shortage

apple: hold my beer

Report: Apple is gearing up to launch a ‘flood’ of new devices starting this fall

New iPhones, Macs, Watches, and more.

www.theverge.com

Apple and a few others are actually one of the reasons why we're having a chip shortage; Nintendo can't compare. My work ordered 4 raspberry pi in April, and I guess we'll never get them...

 

[Alovon11]

I feel like I ask this every so often; so what's the current consensus? Switch 2 or Switch Pro in the same vein as the PS4 Pro and the XBOX One X?

Both

 

[Kenka]

literally who? what are you even talking about? you keep talking about something in vague terms but you don't actually quote this ubermachine you claim people are referencing

There is a user who loves using bullet points. He is not the only one though.

DLSS has better performance and lower power draw than native as well as great (sometimes better than native) IQ…
A lot of games will be 30fps, but that’s already true on Switch. A lot 60fps games will probably go for a lower output, like 1440p, which is still clean as hell.

This is a misconception. DLSS has a fixed cost that is tied to the output resolution. Depending on how many tensor cores you have, the cost is more or less high. In the case of a portable console like the Switch, Alex Battaglia has estimated that applying DLSS would eat up around 10 ms in each frame, leaving a paltry 6 ms to render the game at base resolution (in this case, the former would be 4k and the latter 1080p).

A game that would render frames at 6 ms outputs at 160 fps. If this happens at 1080p, there is a fat chance it would do so quicker than at 60 fps at 4k. So, there is no clear way to predict (in this example at least) that DLSS is indeed a smarter way to render graphics. And that leads to the next question:

Why are you saying DLSS doesn’t matter

For the reason above. DLSS is simply not a net gain for all usages.

 

[Look over there]

Quick thought on storage speed: If the concern is being viable for multiplatform ports, then the actual benchmark to compare against is PC, IMO.

From a bird's eye view, I think that the situation can be stratified as:
Is HDD sufficient?
If no, is (random average) SATA SSD sufficient?
If no, is (random average) NVMe SSD of PCIe gen 3 sufficient?
If no, is (random average) NVMe SSD of PCIe gen 4 sufficient?

And my assumption is that each further tier a game lands in effectively shrinks the potential userbase for a PC version. So I think that for marketshare reach purposes, games meant to be multiplat will probably not require all that high storage speeds; should remain within mobile tech's limits.
Of course, we'll have to actually see what happens with Drake
...and as an aside, I'm fairly confident that requiring above PCIe gen 3 will be a non-starter for several years yet; asking PC players to replace their otherwise-perfectly functional, recently bought drive just to play a game sounds silly for the time being.

Quick repetition of thought on Xbox Series S specifically: It will not age well. So far I'm getting the impression that output res target below 4k (ie lower internal render res to work with) combined with not having all that many shaders to spare in the first place is not good for something like FSR 2

FSR 2's source code should be released by now, right? I'm curious about the amount of shaders being used for reconstruction. Is it a flat percentage or a constant, or it's an amount that varies case by case?