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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Are we absolutely certain that it's 8 PCIe lanes? Looking at the code alongside the DisplayPort data, we have 5 PCIe controllers for T194 (Xavier), 11 for T234, and 4 for T239. Orin has 22 PCIe lanes, with I believe two lanes per controller, but Xavier has 16 lanes split over 5 differently sized controllers, specifically "1x8, 1x4, 1x2, 2x1" (slide 9 here). Could T239 have 4 single-lane controllers? Four lanes is the same as the TX1, and with PCIe 4.0 they shouldn't need more than one lane for any specific use-case, so having dual-lane controllers would seem like a waste.
I'm not certain at all. Your T194 example disproves the idea that the controllers have to have two lanes, so T239's controllers could map to any number of lanes and not necessarily 8 in that case. This source doesn't seem to contain info about the number of lanes (for PCIe anyway). I just always start with the assumption that things will be the same as Orin.
We can't know from the Linux code alone, but the Orin configuration is helpful.

UPHY lanes seem to come in blocks of 8 lanes, with Orin having 3. But because Nano has 12 lanes, and the AGX pinout both seem to suggest that blocks can be subdivided, and half blocks are possible. Nano's 12 lanes (iiuc):

3x USB 3.2 - 3 lanes
3x USB 2.0 - 1 lane
1x GBE - 1 lane
1 x4 PCIe - 4 lanes
3 x1 PCIe - 3 lanes

Drake's likely lanes:
2x USB 3.2 - 2 lanes (code comments)
WiFi/BT - 1 lane (AGX devkit uses a single wireless module that runs on one lane)
1x GBE - 1 lane (per the OLED model)

DisplayPort, eMMC, SD cards, and Audio Out are all supported by Orin directly, I would expect the same here. In theory a single 8 lane UPHY block would work, and would make Drake smaller than Nano in this regard, and give us 4 PCIe lanes.
 
Quoted by: LiC
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I do think there was a potential missed opportunity not launching this system late 2022 where the Switch 2 could have probably gotten multiplatform support for a few years due to how long cross-gen has been.

Stuff like RE4 Remake, SF6, Diablo 4, Crash Team Rumble, etc.

Right now, the only big publisher third-party games headed to Switch this year are [REDACTED] (I will not be surprised if this gets cancelled), Spongebob, Octopath 2, Minecraft Legends, and some not graphically intensive remasters.

Not sure how much that matters in the end though.
 
Wait is "Suswave" a pun on "Pigstep"?

Word for porcine + electronic music genre?
nope, given I had never heard of pigstep until this comment — but Lena Raine rules!

sus is suspicious and wave is wave like the music genre

based on inside jokes from 10+ years ago

it’s very directly related to Nintendo in the stupidest possible way:

“sus” was first popularized to me by one of the very first YouTube poops — the one where some old super mario cartoon was chopped up, including Bowser saying “sus. Sus. SUS!”

it was deeply fucked up then as I’m sure it is now, but the advent of absurdist hyper-cuts of old media — which were somewhat unprecedented at the time — felt like the chaos in my brain manifested as a curse upon humankind through the internet

plus me and one of my pals started just saying “sus” to each other in really weird ways

it’s sort of a way of declaring my intent to shitpost

then the wave part has a few angles:
  • a fictional music genre (I make a lot of weird music, some of which has literally been called “sus”)
  • the cadence of my chaos-to-calm
  • my penchant for staring out at the waves longingly with both melancholy and a tiny tenuous flickering flame of inner peace
  • the idea that my chaos, unchecked, could wash over all like a tidal wave
  • the more peaceful idea that, in the company of others, like a forum, we’re all making our weird little waves, and that’s its own kind of weird music, and that togetherness makes sense and gives purpose to the waves of chaos, making it fun and human — not destructive and lonely
so yeah, it’s actually very much about the forum, shitposting, and exists because of Nintendo and getting weird with Nintendo on the internet — while giving a few hints as to my personality, both chaotic and calm
 
What does HOVI mean?
Horizon (codename for the Switch OS) + Nvidia I believe
Hovi is the codename for Nintendo used in the context of their current partnership with Nvidia. @Skittzo's interpretation is a fair one, but the name isn't meant to refer to Nintendo and Nvidia together, just Nintendo. Nvidia has their own codename which, like Hovi, shows up in some gigaleak documents as well as the source code leak. IMO Hovi probably comes from Horizon + video (in a graphics, video games, etc. broad sort of way). "Vi" is also in the name Nintendo registered with Khronos for their Vulkan extensions.
 
I also thought it was HOrizon + nVIdia, with this as a source. Didn't know about the 'Nintendo Vi' name for Vulkan, that's cute. Now I'd like to know what 'NVN' fully stands for.
 
If you dont mind @NateDrake :

These timelines for the Switch 2 you mentioned (like Spring 2024 to Spring 2025).

Are these pure speculative guesses from you, MVG and John or with (some) background information?
Speculative. My personal expectation is late 2024. I would wager that the FY of April 24 to March 25 is the intended window; but CY 2024 is the most likely release target.
 
We can't know from the Linux code alone, but the Orin configuration is helpful.

UPHY lanes seem to come in blocks of 8 lanes, with Orin having 3. But because Nano has 12 lanes, and the AGX pinout both seem to suggest that blocks can be subdivided, and half blocks are possible. Nano's 12 lanes (iiuc):

3x USB 3.2 - 3 lanes
3x USB 2.0 - 1 lane
1x GBE - 1 lane
1 x4 PCIe - 4 lanes
3 x1 PCIe - 3 lanes

Drake's likely lanes:
2x USB 3.2 - 2 lanes (code comments)
WiFi/BT - 1 lane (AGX devkit uses a single wireless module that runs on one lane)
1x GBE - 1 lane (per the OLED model)

DisplayPort, eMMC, SD cards, and Audio Out are all supported by Orin directly, I would expect the same here. In theory a single 8 lane UPHY block would work, and would make Drake smaller than Nano in this regard, and give us 4 PCIe lanes.
Drake supports 3x USB (down from 4x on Orin), but I suppose they could just use two since the current docks only have two (with the third port already being replaced by Ethernet in the OLED dock).
 
To go back to the post to which you are replying--the information in the Linux commits implies that this SoC physically existed in mid-2022, and the SoC existing in mid-2022 implies, based on typical manufacturing timelines, that a device using the SoC would launch sometime in 2023. Is that correct?

If so, and assuming that Nintendo truly is the only consumer of this SoC, is there any way to reconcile the SoC existing in mid-2022 with the only device using it launching in 2024 or 2025?

That's not what you need to reconcile though because the 2024/2025 talk is complete uninformed speculation. What we need to wrap our heads around is the rumor of the supposed "cancellation" of a Switch hardware planned for 22/23 with 4K/DLSS. There is no way this device was not based on Drake, but Drake from what we know seemed to be way on track for a launch in 2023 for a good part of 2022. How do you reconcile that?

I can't believe two separate sources are now talking of "cancelled" or "shelved" hardware but really meant "delayed" as someone is suggesting. The only two possible explanations are to me:
  • this rumor is false, and the sources were either misled or reported something incorrectly, and the hardware is still bound to release relatively soon
  • something catastrophic (or an unprecedented opportunity?) happened either on Nintendo or Nvidia side that really resulted in shelving this hardware

Drake existed until a few months ago, was clearly meant for a Nintendo, "Switch-like" product (barring the weirdness of the 12SM) and was clearly mature enough to be near production. There is no way it was meant to release years in the future. So either something huge happened, or it's still coming sooner than later.
 
Drake supports 3x USB (down from 4x on Orin), but I suppose they could just use two since the current docks only have two (with the third port already being replaced by Ethernet in the OLED dock).
Oh I’m misremembering.
 
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I don't really think Nintendo really cares about having the absolute most cutting edge chip anyway, the Drake architecture still is modern relative to what the PS5/XSX are, I don't think Nintendo even gives half a thought to "yeah but what about the dude who has a 4080 GPU!!".

Beyond that I think PS4+ level visuals even as is are so complex and taxing for a dev team that almost assuredly even at that visual fidelity, Nintendo's software output is likely going to drop just as every studio's output has dropped once they've gone past PS3/360 fidelity. Sure you can get better, but even that point it takes a massive amount of dev resources and money to get top end looking games from that hardware.
 
This is something I've been wondering about for a while. The fact that Nvidia are supporting T239 in L4T (and they're upstreaming that support into the mainline Linux kernel) very strongly suggests that Nvidia has at least one use-case for T239 outside of Nintendo. I've been trying to figure out what that device (or devices) might be, mostly out of simple curiosity.

The issue is that the more we learn about T239, the less useful it seems for everything that isn't a games console. In particular the indication that it doesn't support cameras (or at least doesn't have a built-in CSI interface like Nvidia's other SoCs) is something that seems particularly relevant, because almost every other device Nvidia might want to use the chip in would include one or more cameras. Tablets have both front and rear-facing cameras, laptops have webcams, automotive use-cases often involve dozens of cameras, etc. Technically this doesn't preclude a T239-based device from including a camera, but it would have to use an additional IC to connect via a different IO interface (probably USB, or maybe PCIe), which adds cost and complexity. It wouldn't put Nvidia in a great competitive position selling this chip if something that's standard on every competing SoCs, like connecting a camera, requires additional ICs.

One device they could use it in which wouldn't require cameras is a new Shield TV. This is something I do expect, but it's not nearly a big enough selling product to warrant a chip of its own, hence why the only update of the Shield line in the last few years was to use a die-shrunk TX1 they were making for Nintendo. I'm also less confident than I was before that a Shield TV was even considered when making this chip. For quite a while I have been assuming that whatever hardware Nvidia would make for Nintendo next would have a couple of concessions for Nvidia's own use-cases. Namely, that it would have video decode and output capabilities above and beyond what Nintendo need, probably including 8K@60Hz, for Nvidia to use in the next Shield TV. This would be relatively easy to include, as Ampere's video decode block already supports 8K@60Hz, and Orin's display controller likewise supports 8K60 output.

However, if my understanding of the Linux commit on T239's DisplayPort interface is correct, which it might not be, then T239 isn't even particularly well suited for a Shield TV. The T239 DisplayPort interface supports two lanes of DP1.4 at HBR3 (8.1 Gpbs link rate per lane), which puts it in a pretty good position for a new Switch, as it could support 4K60 with HDR (using either 4:2:2 chroma sub-sampling or DSC), and it's the maximum rate that can be supported on a USB3.x USB-C connection while allowing for USB3 data alongside it. However, for a device targeting 8K it's quite limiting, as it would require DSC to even output 8K30, and would need both DSC and 4:2:0 subsampling to hit 8K60 with HDR. I'm not sure how noticeable that compression would be at 8K (maybe not at all), but it's a strange bottleneck for a device designed for 8K.

The other part of the Linux commit (which may just be me reading too much into things) is that it implies that T239 doesn't have a direct HDMI output. Again, for Switch this is fine, as Nintendo will want a DP signal to transmit over USB-C, then use a DP-to-HDMI converter in the dock. For a Shield TV, though, this is inconvenient, as it would require a DP-to-HDMI converter that wouldn't have been required otherwise. Furthermore, if they do support 8K on the Shield TV, they would be compressing the 8K signal down using both DSC and 4:2:0 subsampling to squeeze it onto two lanes of DP1.4, only to uncompress it two centimetres away on a DP-to-HDMI chip, and send it out uncompressed over a HDMI cable. While Orin has a display controller that natively supports 8K60 HDMI connections which they could have used.

Of course they could release a new Shield TV without 8K support, but I think it would be a tough sell, as it'll almost certainly be priced higher than the competition (even the 4K Apple TV is now just $129 with a very capable SoC), and lots of CPU cores and a big GPU doesn't matter much for a device that's primarily used for streaming. The main advantage over the existing Shield TV would be 4K AV1 decode, but dirt cheap streaming dongles will probably be able to do that soon enough. Nvidia already had all the technology in place to decode and output 8K60 content, so if a Shield TV was considered a serious use-case when designing this chip, I can only imagine they would have supported it directly.

My money would still be on a new Shield TV using T239, but only as an afterthought, and likely using binned chips that don't make it into the new Switch model. Neither the economics of the situation nor the design of the chip would point to it being manufactured solely for use in the Shield TV, even if Nintendo had pulled out at the last minute. Beyond that I can't think of any other device it could be used in that wouldn't be severely hampered by the lack of out-of-the-box camera support.
I don't think it's out of the question that Nvidia might want to run Linux on the chip entirely for internal development and/or continuous integration purposes.
I think a lot of people here kind of underestimate how often prototypes or next phases get “review surveys” or “what could you do with something that looked like this” periods

I think in the game industry not a ton of those are in the open, but… things can iterate a ton in semi-secret
Perhaps, but that's not really how the information was presented. Supposedly there were specific 3rd party games actively in development for it for upwards of a year.
 
That's not what you need to reconcile though because the 2024/2025 talk is complete uninformed speculation. What we need to wrap our heads around is the rumor of the supposed "cancellation" of a Switch hardware planned for 22/23 with 4K/DLSS. There is no way this device was not based on Drake, but Drake from what we know seemed to be way on track for a launch in 2023 for a good part of 2022. How do you reconcile that?

I can't believe two separate sources are now talking of "cancelled" or "shelved" hardware but really meant "delayed" as someone is suggesting. The only two possible explanations are to me:
  • this rumor is false, and the sources were either misled or reported something incorrectly, and the hardware is still bound to release relatively soon
  • something catastrophic (or an unprecedented opportunity?) happened either on Nintendo or Nvidia side that really resulted in shelving this hardware

Drake existed until a few months ago, was clearly meant for a Nintendo, "Switch-like" product (barring the weirdness of the 12SM) and was clearly mature enough to be near production. There is no way it was meant to release years in the future. So either something huge happened, or it's still coming sooner than later.
One way I could see this making sense (pure speculation and imagination here) is if the 22/23 device was the Drake SoC in a Switch chassis, possibly reusing the OLED chassis or something very close, which could have led to the talks of "Nintendo might call it a revision or successor, we don't know the marketing angle." BUT recently Nintendo decided to pivot and instead use the Drake SoC for something that isn't specifically a Switch as we know it, maybe one of the theories we've seen in this thread like a full-time handheld that streams to a wireless dongle, or I think someone today pitched the idea of Drake starting off in a Switch Home unit, then having a Drake handheld come later with a die shrink.

I'm sure none of this is even close to what's happening but like, there are ways a Drake system could be "cancelled" while Drake itself continues to be on track for something else. I'd only call it a delay if the whole system we get in 24/25 is essentially the system we would've gotten in 22/23. And it's possible (not saying likely, but possible) that that's not the case.
 
That's not what you need to reconcile though because the 2024/2025 talk is complete uninformed speculation. What we need to wrap our heads around is the rumor of the supposed "cancellation" of a Switch hardware planned for 22/23 with 4K/DLSS. There is no way this device was not based on Drake, but Drake from what we know seemed to be way on track for a launch in 2023 for a good part of 2022. How do you reconcile that?

I can't believe two separate sources are now talking of "cancelled" or "shelved" hardware but really meant "delayed" as someone is suggesting. The only two possible explanations are to me:
  • this rumor is false, and the sources were either misled or reported something incorrectly, and the hardware is still bound to release relatively soon
  • something catastrophic (or an unprecedented opportunity?) happened either on Nintendo or Nvidia side that really resulted in shelving this hardware

Drake existed until a few months ago, was clearly meant for a Nintendo, "Switch-like" product (barring the weirdness of the 12SM) and was clearly mature enough to be near production. There is no way it was meant to release years in the future. So either something huge happened, or it's still coming sooner than later.
I am asking what could have realistically happened that a SoC which physically existed in mid-2022 won't be on the market in a device until 2024+. I ask about 2024+ because Nate and the others on the podcast wouldn't be talking about this subject using the terms and tone that they did if a device slated for H1 2023 was instead coming out in H2 2023. That's not that significant or noteworthy.

I'm no longer entertaining the notion that a device using Drake was cancelled. Cancellation implies a new device, and a new device implies a new chip. Nintendo didn't cancel a device in the summer of 2022. A device using Drake is coming, it's just no longer coming in H1 2023, and it possibly underwent a branding change. That's just a delay, and I fully believe that 2+ separate people with sources are misinformed in the same way. We've seen that before.

If the answer to my question is "nothing", then I'll just continue to expect late 2023. But if there is some realistic, if unlikely, explanation, I might entertain the idea of 2024.
 
I don't really think Nintendo really cares about having the absolute most cutting edge chip anyway, the Drake architecture still is modern relative to what the PS5/XSX are, I don't think Nintendo even gives half a thought to "yeah but what about the dude who has a 4080 GPU!!".
Maybe they wouldn't care about matching a higher hardware spec 1:1, but they've probably spoken to partners about what kind of minimum hardware spec is desired to receive certain ports. I assume that's the motivation behind developing this custom chip with Nvidia with 12 SMs and DLSS, exceeding many people's expectations. e.g. I believe Capcom stated they attempted to port RE remake to the Switch but were dissatisfied, I assume they would have been one of the devs Nintendo chatted with about desirable target performance for a new device. Tegra T239 is much more of a custom chip than Tegra X1, and for the latter Nintendo even added an extra 1GB of RAM vs. the original Shield TV. This time Nintendo has much more say.

I think they could have designed a smaller GPU and released some kind of enhanced model earlier, running into fewer power consumption and size concerns while still being a significant upgrade. So why'd they funnel the R&D into this more powerful chip around 2020, only to then release it five years later? I don't think even the original Switch took that long from development to release. It's a genuine question, maybe they determined that a T239 Switch is the minimum viable product in 2025, or they were fucked by delays and had no choice (skeptical of this).
 
Speculative. My personal expectation is late 2024. I would wager that the FY of April 24 to March 25 is the intended window; but CY 2024 is the most likely release target.
Maybe you can address this in your predictions episode. What do you think is driving the reported increase in Switch production for Fy 2024 end March 2024 if you are expecting the device to launch in fy 2025 but launch in calendar 2024
 
Maybe you can address this in your predictions episode. What do you think is driving the reported increase in Switch production for Fy 2024 end March 2024 if you are expecting the device to launch in fy 2025 but launch in calendar 2024

That's a good question because while I think TOTK will be a big deal, that one game alone wouldn't be enough to sell that many new Switches.

Hoping for some huge awesome game reveals for the year that we don't currently know about or expect.
 
Maybe you can address this in your predictions episode. What do you think is driving the reported increase in Switch production for Fy 2024 end March 2024 if you are expecting the device to launch in fy 2025 but launch in calendar 2024
Can include that in 2023 predictions episode.

As for the topic of hardware, in a general sense, will see if any chatter springs up at GDC in a couple of months.
 
I have a question for nate, if you don't mind.

The supposed games that were in development for the machine you mentioned, has its development moved to the basic switch? Have they been frozen pending successor/Drake dev kits? What has happened to them?
 
Maybe they wouldn't care about matching a higher hardware spec 1:1, but they've probably spoken to partners about what kind of minimum hardware spec is desired to receive certain ports. I assume that's the motivation behind developing this custom chip with Nvidia with 12 SMs and DLSS, exceeding many people's expectations. e.g. I believe Capcom stated they attempted to port RE remake to the Switch but were dissatisfied, I assume they would have been one of the devs Nintendo chatted with about desirable target performance for a new device. Tegra T239 is much more of a custom chip than Tegra X1, and for the latter Nintendo even added an extra 1GB of RAM vs. the original Shield TV. This time Nintendo has much more say.

I think they could have designed a smaller GPU and released some kind of enhanced model earlier, running into fewer power consumption and size concerns while still being a significant upgrade. So why'd they funnel the R&D into this more powerful chip around 2020, only to then release it five years later? I don't think even the original Switch took that long from development to release. It's a genuine question, maybe they determined that a T239 Switch is the minimum viable product in 2025, or they were fucked by delays and had no choice (skeptical of this).
The entire timeline for the Switch was originally going to be around 27 months, and ended up being roughly 31 months. Now, on the one hand that was definitely shorter than you'd typically see, since they were rushing to get a new system out so they could move on from the Wii U. On the other hand, that's how long it took to design, develop, and mass produce a brand-new type of device during a first-time partnership with Nvidia, whereas the system they're developing now will build upon all that work, and likely reuse or evolve many aspects which had to be done from scratch initially.

So the idea of a 5 year development timeline, or even 4, seems absurd to me too. And we're still missing not just an explanation, but even a potential justification, for how that would just happen after a much more sensible initial plan (and apparently not seriously damage Nintendo or their relationship with third parties who supposedly had games just months away from release).
 
I have a question for nate, if you don't mind.

The supposed games that were in development for the machine you mentioned, has its development moved to the basic switch? Have they been frozen pending successor/Drake dev kits? What has happened to them?
Some were just enhanced Switch games and remain planned for Switch. The others, I have no update to give right now. I also have to consider the possibility they may have been internal tests with the new hardware & may not have been intended for release. The latter is something I'd need to ask about.
 
Some were just enhanced Switch games and remain planned for Switch. The others, I have no update to give right now. I also have to consider the possibility they may have been internal tests with the new hardware & may not have been intended for release. The latter is something I'd need to ask about.
Thank you very much for the response.

It would be an interesting point to know what has happened with those projects.
 
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I am asking what could have realistically happened that a SoC which physically existed in mid-2022 won't be on the market in a device until 2024+. I ask about 2024+ because Nate and the others on the podcast wouldn't be talking about this subject using the terms and tone that they did if a device slated for H1 2023 was instead coming out in H2 2023. That's not that significant or noteworthy.
Nintendo isn’t ready? SOC production isn’t the only step in the process. It’s riskier when you’re developing a custom chip, but it wouldn’t be the first time Nintendo’s console was delayed but the SOC is done.

Maybe they wouldn't care about matching a higher hardware spec 1:1, but they've probably spoken to partners about what kind of minimum hardware spec is desired to receive certain ports. I assume that's the motivation behind developing this custom chip with Nvidia with 12 SMs and DLSS, exceeding many people's expectations.
The classic idea of a console generation was a 6x increase in power, driven by Moore’s law, and how long a console needed to stick around to be a stable platform. If transistor density doubled every two years, then a 5 year gen should be a 6x performance improvement without increasing costs.

I don’t think it’s coincidence that Nintendo, who were using an SOC on a mature mode for Switch, went with 6x the number of CUDA cores as a first pass
 
That's not what you need to reconcile though because the 2024/2025 talk is complete uninformed speculation. What we need to wrap our heads around is the rumor of the supposed "cancellation" of a Switch hardware planned for 22/23 with 4K/DLSS. There is no way this device was not based on Drake, but Drake from what we know seemed to be way on track for a launch in 2023 for a good part of 2022. How do you reconcile that?

I can't believe two separate sources are now talking of "cancelled" or "shelved" hardware but really meant "delayed" as someone is suggesting. The only two possible explanations are to me:
  • this rumor is false, and the sources were either misled or reported something incorrectly, and the hardware is still bound to release relatively soon
  • something catastrophic (or an unprecedented opportunity?) happened either on Nintendo or Nvidia side that really resulted in shelving this hardware

Drake existed until a few months ago, was clearly meant for a Nintendo, "Switch-like" product (barring the weirdness of the 12SM) and was clearly mature enough to be near production. There is no way it was meant to release years in the future. So either something huge happened, or it's still coming sooner than later.
And... If something huge or catastrophic happened I would expect much more noise from outlets like Nikkei or Bloomberg especially with devs having their games cancelled just a few months from release.
 
the thing is, it is a really risky move. its kind of trying to edge it out as far as they can to maximize profits,
but with that they risk overextending it, missing the ideal cutoff point and having to battle for 1-2 years to get back into the seat.
Don't know, not the maximum profit but stable and safe long term income seems to be the better move for a company like nintendo?
And its not like there arent methods when the switch 2 releases to monetize the heck out of switch:
make it cheap, low entry point, let the budget conscious spend tons on indies, evergreens and titles that can be cross releases.
Let's hope they don't milk it to the point where they really harm the next console launch....seems they didn't learn much from the Wii.
 
Let's hope they don't milk it to the point where they really harm the next console launch....seems they didn't learn much from the Wii.
That's my reaction initially as well, but the launch window being discussed could be as soon as spring 2024, which is a year away and they'd had to announce later this year. Some others feel it will be 2nd half of 2024 which is further away but we have a lot of missing pieces.

Wii was declining in sales and Nintendo simply wasn't ready with software. I don't feel like this is the case. The recent reports that Nintendo is seeking to increase Switch production is puzzling, and I am waiting to see how things shake out with their next few directs, certainly their next direct, before I can comment.

I also haven't given up on my original H2 2023 prediction. For all we know that's when it is launching since again, we have very much incomplete information ont he new hardware.
 
The only two possible explanations...

This is what everyone needs to stop doing in these speculation threads because it leads to assumptions that lead to the kind of toxic reactions that are typical when things don't pan out the way that people expect them to pan out. When you have incomplete information about hardware in development, it is hardly ever the case that you can simply rule out the possibility that there is another explanation that you hadn't considered, unless the possibilities you considered are extremely broad in scope.

A much more reasonable position to hold is that you're speculating on what you think is plausible while accounting for the possibility that there's something that you hadn't considered.

Speculation is fun, but it won't always lead to logical deductions and inferences where you can accurately predict what will happen just with pure reason. The data still needs to be there first, and in this case, it isn't, at least not sufficiently. As unsatisfactory as that is, everyone needs to accept that if we want these discussions to be healthy.

And I'm not picking on you CocaFormula. The example I quoted was just convenient to point out. Plenty of other people have done the same thing.
 
Some were just enhanced Switch games and remain planned for Switch. The others, I have no update to give right now. I also have to consider the possibility they may have been internal tests with the new hardware & may not have been intended for release. The latter is something I'd need to ask about.

The Mochizuki Bloomberg article from Sep 2021 about 11 companies having 4k devkits says "a system capable of handling 4K games isn't expected to be released until late next year at the earliest, people familiar with the plans said."

If they were only for internal tests, his sources couldn't have been all that familiar with the plans.

Though I mean, there's been a few misunderstandings along the way, I suppose this could be another one.
 
This is what everyone needs to stop doing in these speculation threads because it leads to assumptions that lead to the kind of toxic reactions that are typical when things don't pan out the way that people expect them to pan out. When you have incomplete information about hardware in development, it is hardly ever the case that you can simply rule out the possibility that there is another explanation that you hadn't considered, unless the possibilities you considered are extremely broad in scope.

A much more reasonable position to hold is to speculate on what you think is plausible while accounting for the possibility that there's something that you hadn't considered.

Speculation is fun, but it won't always lead to logical deductions and inferences where you can accurately predict what will happen just with pure reason. The data still needs to be there first, and in this case, it isn't, at least not sufficiently. As unsatisfactory as that is, everyone needs to accept that if we want these discussions to be healthy.

And I'm not picking on you CocaFormula. The example I quoted was just convenient to point out. Plenty of other people have done the same thing.

Yeah agreed. I do feel we are only able to see substantially less of the picture than we think we're seeing. We've arguably got a lot of pieces, but it's a larger puzzle than we're assuming - though I think for the most part we are being reasonable about it - with all the unknown unknowns and whatnot.
 
the sun is bright and hot, there can only be two possibilities. it's a giant burning ball of coal or a diety in the sky!
 
Drake will launch and we'll be here wondering why they aren't using DLSS
we discussed Nintendo using their proprietary upscaling tech before. It's a potential fail point where their own solution isn't as good as nvidia's DLSS and they end up not using it. would be worst case scenario right next to an out of left-field SoC we weren't expecting that's significantly less capable.
 
Did the podcast address Drake T239 at all? It's established that a Switch model with more performance was shelved, but it's not clear if that's Drake. If the Drake powered device was scrapped, then everything we think we know in this thread is dead.

When I look at the specs of Drake, especially if it's 5nm, it would have exceeded my expectations for new hardware in 2023 ane meet my expectations if it's a 2024 release.

I listened to chunks of the podcast, and none of them came across as having significant knowledge of the situation. Even what they feel confident in knowing seemed rather limited. How do you speak with other developers at GDC who claim to be working on next gen Nintendo hardware but cannot even say for sure it's a Switch?
 
Did the podcast address Drake T239 at all? It's established that a Switch model with more performance was shelved, but it's not clear if that's Drake. If the Drake powered device was scrapped, then everything we think we know in this thread is dead.

They stated they ultimately didn't know what hardware was cancelled, but acknowledged a possibility that it could have been Drake based on the timeline of all the information they've been given.
 
As a computer vision junkie, I'm still flabbergasted by AI reconstruction tech in games every time I see it, and how much progress has been done all around. I can only imagine what kind of things we can achieve 5 years down the road.
 
As a computer vision junkie, I'm still flabbergasted by AI reconstruction tech in games every time I see it, and how much progress has been done all around. I can only imagine what kind of things we can achieve 5 years down the road.
The current state of DLSS 2.0 is especially crazy considering DLSS 1.0 was a pretty abysmal technology that "hallucinated" most of what it upscaled (i.e. inventing things that weren't there in the original to fill gaps) and gave ugly results despite having per-game training. DLSS 2.0 turned that into an actually good, generic solution through the magic of jitter and temporal upsampling.
 
I haven't checked in a while. I do know the 2023 dream is essentially dead. How is 1H 2024 looking?

Ehhh, it's possible.

Hard to determine what time this releasing other than not 1H 2023.

I think 1H 2024 would be weirder than 2H 2023 or 2H 2024 though as they would probably have to announce the Switch 2 by like November 2023 and then they would badly hurt the Switch's sales for holiday 2023.
 
I haven't checked in a while. I do know the 2023 dream is essentially dead. How is 1H 2024 looking?
no one knows the release date, all the dates discussed so far are guesses. Until we get a clearer picture of nintendo's Fy 2024 forecast, it's hard to say. One train of thought is they are ordering extra parts for the new device, and the suppliers simply weren't told that.

That said, I can totally see bloomberg/nikkei continuing to report increased production in the next couple of months and Nintrendo announces 15m forecast in April, throwing everyone into a frenzy again.
 
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I haven't checked in a while. I do know the 2023 dream is essentially dead. How is 1H 2024 looking?
I'm still of the opinion that it's Holiday 2023 or Holiday 2024. I won't rule out H1 2024, but I'll reiterate my point that there's no reason for Nintendo to repeat the launch and reveal timing of the NX while Switch is still a very high selling and well recieved console.

If it is H1 2024, it'll be near the end, and we won't hear anything official from Nintendo until 2024 actually hits.

Sharp drop in Switch units before the end of the year could expedite a reveal before the 2023 holiday season.
 
we discussed Nintendo using their proprietary upscaling tech before. It's a potential fail point where their own solution isn't as good as nvidia's DLSS and they end up not using it. would be worst case scenario right next to an out of left-field SoC we weren't expecting that's significantly less capable.
it's more of a joke about Nintendo not using any kind of AA at all.

as for not being as good as DLSS, I don't think that's nintendo's worry. the whole point was to have a software stack that they own. you don't exactly get DLSS quality overnight, after all. Nvidia's resources far outweigh nintendo's
 
This is what everyone needs to stop doing in these speculation threads because it leads to assumptions that lead to the kind of toxic reactions that are typical when things don't pan out the way that people expect them to pan out. When you have incomplete information about hardware in development, it is hardly ever the case that you can simply rule out the possibility that there is another explanation that you hadn't considered, unless the possibilities you considered are extremely broad in scope.

A much more reasonable position to hold is that you're speculating on what you think is plausible while accounting for the possibility that there's something that you hadn't considered.

Speculation is fun, but it won't always lead to logical deductions and inferences where you can accurately predict what will happen just with pure reason. The data still needs to be there first, and in this case, it isn't, at least not sufficiently. As unsatisfactory as that is, everyone needs to accept that if we want these discussions to be healthy.

And I'm not picking on you CocaFormula. The example I quoted was just convenient to point out. Plenty of other people have done the same thing.
It may be ironic because of how much I've posted about and debated it, but I'm actually one of the people who genuinely doesn't care if Nintendo waits a long time to release an upgrade to the Switch (or whatever hardware there may be). So I take issue with this implication that the people finding it difficult to accept Nate's hardware narrative must just be mad because their expectations weren't satisfied. I don't see any toxic reactions over the fact that previously reported info didn't pan out. I believe most people here are mature enough to understand that can always happen for any number of reasons. It's a lack of coherency, which inhibits the purpose of this thread -- discussing/speculating -- that I think is the sticking point.

There are several different pieces of information, some presented as fact and some as speculation, that were previously being glued together (by Nate and by us) into a scenario that said hardware was happening at such and such time. Now there are new pieces of information which Nate is gluing onto the previous info -- explicitly stating that the past reporting was all correct -- to form a scenario that says the hardware isn't happening at all. What's transpiring in the thread now is just other people trying to contextualize those pieces of info for themselves, to try to wrap their heads around it all. One way to do that is by considering different concrete scenarios as an exercise to see whether the pieces can actually be fit together. Which is what I see in the post you responded to.

So like I said, I can accept that my expectations may not be met. New hardware may not come out until 2024 or later. Maybe it had a really long development time for some reason, or maybe it started development later than we think it did. Anything's possible... except for things that are contradictory. Which is where my issue with the "everyone needs to stop this" part comes in.

I think what you're saying there makes sense, but only in the context of "plans change" or attacking someone for "getting things wrong." For that I agree -- besides the fact that it's just shitty behavior -- the data is not there, and you can't declare we know something couldn't have happened a certain way. Unprecedented events are only unprecedented until they happen. But that's not what the context is in that post, or most of the posts here.

What's happening there is just contextualizing, and saying "everyone needs to stop" doing that is basically saying to presume all information presented to us must be true, or at least, that we can't know for sure that two pieces of factual information or speculation are really contradictory, because we must always assume the existence of an unknown third piece of factual information that reconciles them.
 
The current state of DLSS 2.0 is especially crazy considering DLSS 1.0 was a pretty abysmal technology that "hallucinated" most of what it upscaled (i.e. inventing things that weren't there in the original to fill gaps) and gave ugly results despite having per-game training. DLSS 2.0 turned that into an actually good, generic solution through the magic of jitter and temporal upsampling.
I wouldn't call it 2.0. I would call it 2.x. There are huge leaps in quality between 2.3, 2.4, and 2.5, as demonstrated by that article.

In fact, the TechPowerUp article proves that I wasn't alone in seeing improvements to the Ultra Performance setting, the lowest tier setting in DLSS. That alone shows that using this version makes 4k gaming feasable even in low powered hardware with RTX tensor cores.
 
Please read this staff post before posting.

Furthermore, according to this follow-up post, all off-topic chat will be moderated.
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