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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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Machrider said:
There's not much really from actual developer sources, if there is a supposed launch happening in 10-11 months, then this is very, very quiet relative to other hardware platforms at 10-11 months pre-launch which I don't think is unfair to say.

Dev kits should be widely available at this point if that's the time line and if that was the case, I'd expect a few more concrete leaks than what we've been getting.

If we're t-minus 10-11 months from launch, that isn't a lot of time at all.
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In September 2021 we got a report that at least 11 major publishers have devkits.

I do agree it's odd we haven't heard much since then though.
 
Machrider said:
There's not much really from actual developer sources, if there is a supposed launch happening in 10-11 months, then this is very, very quiet relative to other hardware platforms at 10-11 months pre-launch which I don't think is unfair to say.

Dev kits should be widely available at this point if that's the time line and if that was the case, I'd expect a few more concrete leaks than what we've been getting.

If we're t-minus 10-11 months from launch, that isn't a lot of time at all.
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I’ve been feeling the same vibes. Where are the leaks from the likes of Ubisoft?? This whole switch 2/pro thing feels weird man…
 
Machrider said:
There's not much really from actual developer sources, if there is a supposed launch happening in 10-11 months, then this is very, very quiet relative to other hardware platforms at 10-11 months pre-launch which I don't think is unfair to say.

Dev kits should be widely available at this point if that's the time line and if that was the case, I'd expect a few more concrete leaks than what we've been getting.

If we're t-minus 10-11 months from launch, that isn't a lot of time at all.
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5 days.
Two leaks.

And the Bloomberg article still holds water.

That's... Actually quite a lot for FIVE DAYS!
 
AxkilAvenger said:
I’ve been feeling the same vibes. Where are the leaks from the likes of Ubisoft?? This whole switch 2/pro thing feels weird man…
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I've had a few theories about it.

Maybe Nintendo is clamping down on leaks much harder since they have so much more now to lose from this news getting out.

Maybe journalists are treating this subject with a lot more caution and scrutiny after Mochizuki's mix up two years ago, and the resulting flood of online hate and toxicity.

Maybe the hardware is largely the same but a select few people in each studio are told to raise the graphics targets with little other info.
 
Skittzo said:
I've had a few theories about it.

Maybe Nintendo is clamping down on leaks much harder since they have so much more now to lose from this news getting out.

Maybe journalists are treating this subject with a lot more caution and scrutiny after Mochizuki's mix up two years ago, and the resulting flood of online hate and toxicity.

Maybe the hardware is largely the same but a select few people in each studio are told to raise the graphics targets with little other info.
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Yeah I’m gonna assume Nintendo has really clamped down hard on leaks under new management. Were there many leaks for PS5 and X Box Series? Curious to know if they clamped down hard like Nintendo is allegedly doing right now.
 
Machrider said:
There's not much really from actual developer sources, if there is a supposed launch happening in 10-11 months, then this is very, very quiet relative to other hardware platforms at 10-11 months pre-launch which I don't think is unfair to say.

Dev kits should be widely available at this point if that's the time line and if that was the case, I'd expect a few more concrete leaks than what we've been getting.

If we're t-minus 10-11 months from launch, that isn't a lot of time at all.
Click to expand...

I mean is it? What titles did we know about that were launching for the Xbox Series and PS5 in Jan 2020? Stuff like Ass Creed and CoD are staples that everyone already knew would embrace next gen immediately but what actual software leaks were there at this point? It isn't like all the major third parties only got dev kits/target specs 1 year in advance.
 
AxkilAvenger said:
Yeah I’m gonna assume Nintendo has really clamped down hard on leaks under new management. Were there many leaks for PS5 and X Box Series? Curious to know if they clamped down hard like Nintendo is allegedly doing right now.
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There was very few in the case of Xbox Series X|S and PS5, though certainly not 0.
 
While I would love to be playing a next-gen Switch this year, ultimately it is a business and I can't say if I were Nintendo I would be in any kind of rush to end or even slow the current Switch's product cycle.

It's like if you own a hamburger restaurant how much of a rush are you in to phase out the best selling item your menu has ever had.

The current Switch still has a lot of market momentum and they could easily hold out until 2024, unlike the Wii, the Switch's success has never been rooted in casual game trends (Switch Sports are a nice additive to what the Switch has had, but in no way is it a core driver of the machine's success which was established well before Switch Sports was ever announced). As such it's not really seeing the type of collapse the Wii was at this point in its product cycle, to the contrary Nintendo is probably making incredible bank from the software in particular.

Which is exactly what Nintendo themselves has said, one of their aims with the Switch was to have a stronger year 5/6/7 etc. than other Nintendo platforms (that they have actually said themselves).

Like I hope there is a new Switch this year, but I'm not going to fall over in shock if there isn't. A system as successful as the Switch (going to sell north of 130-140 million units, which really only two systems in the history of the business have done) should have at minimum a 6 year product cycle on the low end to begin with, but on top of that it's entirely reasonable that COVID probably pushed that out longer by a year too (so 7 years minimum, not that 7 years even is long product cycle for something as successful as the Switch, the XBox One got 7 years before a successor and it sold a fraction of the Switch).

So a 2024 launch wouldn't be that surprising at all, it would also explain a lot about why there isn't much buzz in development circles about this system ... probably because dev kits are not widely out.
 
Gotdatmoneyy said:
I mean is it? What titles did we know about that were launching for the Xbox Series and PS5 in Jan 2020? Stuff like Ass Creed and CoD are staples that everyone already knew would embrace next gen immediately but what actual software leaks were there at this point? It isn't like all the major third parties only got dev kits/target specs 1 year in advance.
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No one's asking for specific software details but we definitely knew 10 months prior to launch that developers had dev kits and were working on software for the PS5 and XSX.
 
Machrider said:
No one's asking for specific software details but we definitely knew 10 months prior to launch that developers had dev kits and were working on software for the PS5 and XSX.
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To be fair, we heard about next generation Switch dev kits years ago.
 
Machrider said:
While I would love to be playing a next-gen Switch this year, ultimately it is a business and I can't say if I were Nintendo I would be in any kind of rush to end or even slow the current Switch's product cycle.

It's like if you own a hamburger restaurant how much of a rush are you in to phase out the best selling item your menu has ever had.
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I don’t think it’s that large of a disjunct, in practice. It’s like introducing a bigger burger. McDonalds made its business on the Cheeseburger, but that didn’t stop them from eventually selling the Quarter Pounder.

Nintendo and others will still be motivated to release games on the original Switch as long as they are not fundamentally too demanding for that platform.
 
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Vash_the_Stampede said:
All I can do is say look at the math: change in x and change in y isn’t linear.
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I know hologram already provided a good breakdown of the math on this but I'd just highlight that the method you're using to calculate change is flawed which is why you you are not seeing this as linear.

For one, as has been explained before, since we don't know what those power consumption numbers represent, there is no reason to assume the y intercept is 0. If the power consumption represents the SoC then setting GPU clock to 0 (essentially turning it off) doesn't mean that the CPU clocks are 0 which means that y(0) = 0 is not an accurate assumption. If anything, the conclusion you would draw from this would be that since y(0) =/= 0, yet R^2 is essentially 1, this would have to represent power consumption of the SoC or whole system when all other variables are held constant and thus it isn't just the GPU. But like, people here a lot smarter than me have already basically said don't read into these numbers so 🤷🏾‍♂️

Second. You shouldn't be measuring change in x versus change in y as a percentage for this comparison. As y values get bigger their relative percent increases are going to get smaller even if the raw difference stays they same. You need to calculate slope m using (y2-y1)/(x2-x1).

Doing so for 9.3W, 4.2W, 660Hz and 1125Hz you get m = 0.01096

Doing so for 12W, 9.3W, 1380Hz and 1125Hz you get m = 0.01058

Your slopes are basically the same. Any rounding in power consumption could explain the differences. There is also a margin of error at play.

As hologram said, if you did the linear regression R^2 being essentially 1 means the data is perfectly described by the model. Obviously 3 points does not make a statistically significant trend as also stated but there is no other data and it would be weird to have a perfectly linear consumption curve.

Last I would just say, all a linear relation says in practical terms is that a 1 unit increase in x (independent variable) should produce a proportional change in y along the line segment. It isn't about the percent changes because percentages are extremely sensitive to magnitude.

That curve is definitely linear.
 
Machrider said:
While I would love to be playing a next-gen Switch this year, ultimately it is a business and I can't say if I were Nintendo I would be in any kind of rush to end or even slow the current Switch's product cycle.

It's like if you own a hamburger restaurant how much of a rush are you in to phase out the best selling item your menu has ever had.
Click to expand...

To use an example from technology, Apple was not only willing to phase out the best-selling item they’ve ever had (the iPod) to replace it with the next big thing (the iPhone), they were downright eager to. They reasoned that if they didn’t develop the thing that would kill the iPod, someone else would, so they couldn’t let trying to protect that legacy business keep them from going all in on the next big thing.

Nintendo’s goal shouldn’t just be to try to protect the current Switch platform for as long as possible, it should be to try to make something so compelling we all want to upgrade.
 
Machrider said:
While I would love to be playing a next-gen Switch this year, ultimately it is a business and I can't say if I were Nintendo I would be in any kind of rush to end or even slow the current Switch's product cycle.

It's like if you own a hamburger restaurant how much of a rush are you in to phase out the best selling item your menu has ever had.
Click to expand...

I'm assuming March 2024 right now though recognizing a Sept-Nov 2023 is certainly possible. From a product life cycle sense and a profit maximization standpoint however you don't let your high margin product totally flame out before you introduce your new low margin product. You wouldn't want OG Switch sales to hit 10 units and software to drop off a cliff before you introduce your new system that wont sell nearly the same software while having slim margins that will take even longer to reduce.

There is an optimal point between breathing room and total cannibalization but smoothing your profits is always desireable over peaks and values. This is also why phasing out the OG Switch as quickly as possible would be silly and unless Nintendo can get the OLED profitability up, it would make more sense to sell the V2 Switch if they had to choose a product to phase out. OLED is the least profitable model, it likely can't handle a $50 price cut in its current form. Maybe Nintendo will let us know about build cost improvements in Feb.

Machrider said:
No one's asking for specific software details but we definitely knew 10 months prior to launch that developers had dev kits and were working on software for the PS5 and XSX.
Click to expand...

Bloomberg reported that 11 unique devs had dev kits for a stronger model Switch.

NateDrake has told us that he knows of devs developing next switch only software (I think he just said he knew of 1 dev).

Imran mentioned after the Bloomberg reported he was surprised that this was finally reported on suggesting he's known for some time.

We'll see what NateDrake says on his podcast but devs have obviously been making software for an enhanced Switch for some time. It hasn't been crickets on our end. Are you expecting something specific?

That's why I asked what the PS5/Series had. Because if the bar is just knowing they are out there then I don't understand what differences you're highlighting.
 
Gay Bowser said:
To use an example from technology, Apple was not only willing to phase out the best-selling item they’ve ever had (the iPod) to replace it with the next big thing (the iPhone), they were downright eager to. They reasoned that if they didn’t develop the thing that would kill the iPod, someone else would, so they couldn’t let trying to protect that legacy business keep them from going all in on the next big thing.

Nintendo’s goal shouldn’t just be to try to protect the current Switch platform for as long as possible, it should be to try to make something so compelling we all want to upgrade.
Click to expand...
To be fair, Apple also made the iPod Touch and kept it in production until just a few years ago.
 
Aether said:
0 interest, but just because its so simple:
Reduced build complexity / bom-> cheaper to make
you can add a beefier cooling solution without much cost -> hugher clock speeds, more power
you are termally not constrained by how hot the back gets, since people wont take it out of a dock and touch it
Less compex build -> less failer/returns because of less mechanical wear (or battery/screen problems)

cheaper AND more powerfull sounds like an easy benefit in many eyes.

now is there enough interest that it becomes a mass market product? Is there amarkrt big enough?
i actually doubt it. The switching aspect is just to enticing . Even the light did not sell that well.
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I get how they'd be able to do it, there's just not really a reason to besides to satisfy those who don't want a switching model and think they'll put out a docked only model that is stronger(and somehow that much cheaper?) than the hybrid. A relatively niche reason.
 
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kvetcha said:
To be fair, Apple also made the iPod Touch and kept it in production until just a few years ago.
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Right. The Nintendo analogue for the iPod touch would be something like the Switch Lite: a way for people who just want a traditional handheld console/media-focused device to leave the 3DS/classic iPod paradigm behind and join the Switch/iOS platform at a lower price than the full-featured Switch/iPhone.

I don’t think anyone’s suggesting that Nintendo will come out with a Switch 2 and then immediately discontinue the current Switches and Switch Lite, leaving them with no hardware options under $399 or whatever. They’ve gone so far as to introduce new hardware revisions (like the GBA SP AGS-101/Game Boy micro and the Nintendo 2DS XL) after the successor platforms launch, even, just like how Apple continued to sell and even refresh the original CRT-based iMac G3 (and eventually replace it with the eMac) after introducing the more expensive LCD-based iMac G4.
 
CullenLX87 said:
I can offer some super incredible insider info: the “super vip” is Jeff Rigby.


that is all. You’re welcome.
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theres-a-name-ive-not-heard-in-many-years.gif


Whatever happened to Jeff? Not as though I ever fully read those 2,000 word stream-of-conscience gaming conspiracy theories, but I always did get a chuckle from all the heated responses it elicited trying to get clarity haha
 
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Sin Drive said:
I get how they'd be able to do it, there's just not really a reason to besides to satisfy those who don't want a switching model and think they'll put out a docked only model that is stronger(and somehow that much cheaper?) than the hybrid. A relatively niche reason.
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well..yeah. I don't know what the numbers would be, i don't think it will be a massive amount of switches sold.
I don't know how expensive the (comparable small amount to the handheld) R&D would be.

I feel like it would be a net benefit as a product... but in the context of "added cost and how much more complex it makes marketing, distribution, etc because its another product", it would need to get a ton of people that just really really dont want to buy a switch if it has a screen... and i feel like that group is really small.

Maybe they could benefit from it, maybe not, its not a "easy win" as many think, and they have the numbers, maybe they just decided that the complexity of marketing and logistics just is not worth it with how streamlined all is currently and how bad handling could have a negative impact on the switch line.
 
0
Polygon said:
My best guess is IF Drake is delayed away from the TotK launch then the main reason is they don’t feel like they can manufacture enough consoles to even begin to satisfy demand. Sony have seen how pointless launching a new in demand console is when you can only satisfy 10-20% of consumers for the first two years.

Changing their naming, positioning and marketing for Drake (from Pro/4K to Switch 2) would have been expensive but it’s not something that would delay the launch imo because it was only ever rumour to begin with to the outside world.

One new thought I have is that Nintendo will 100% reveal Drake this year no matter if it’s launching this year or not. I think even Nintendo will be sick of the constant rumour mill surrounding the device online (which at times can actually effect their stock prices if people expect an announcement during a Direct for instance). We’re approaching NX levels of frustration at least from the enthusiasts like us 😂

Hopefully Nate can let us know one way or another for sure soon. If Drake is delayed then I apologise to those who were really looking forward to it in May. I was only ever sharing what I heard and the person I talked to was absolutely insistent that it was coming with Zelda (because his project was a launch window game) and he still thought the same after they broke up for the Xmas break. If it’s been delayed then it’s something that only happened in the very recent past. We shall see…
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Hmm, to be honest, this sounds to me as you have started to backpedal, havent you?
 
ITT: Day 5 of the new year, I haven’t seen anything, so I don’t think it’s coming this year at all. If something doesn’t come by next week, I think 2024 is off too.
 
CypressFX said:
Not if people insists to have real info.
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How would you disprove any of it at this point? Nothing has happened yet. It is Jan 5th. What value is there in getting into the "you backpedaling bro??" debate? What value is there to being like this?

He has no history of leaking. It is on you and anyone hanging onto his words as anything other than through the grapevine talk that may be true but could very easily be nothing.
 
Hermii said:
There was nothing major, or leaky about the Famitsu thing. It was a vague rumour.
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Not at all? It's reputable japanese press, you're the same one saying we haven't got news about devkits (despite many people mentioning 11 developers had them by 2021)? Speculation is in the title, you know what to expect here.
 
Machrider said:
There's not much really from actual developer sources, if there is a supposed launch happening in 10-11 months, then this is very, very quiet relative to other hardware platforms at 10-11 months pre-launch which I don't think is unfair to say.

Dev kits should be widely available at this point if that's the time line and if that was the case, I'd expect a few more concrete leaks than what we've been getting.

If we're t-minus 10-11 months from launch, that isn't a lot of time at all.
Click to expand...
We knew pretty much nothing in regards to Switch 11 months before release.
 
Nintendo is simply clamping down on leaks because they can afford it this time... Not like they had to acknowledge NX asap because Wii U was bombing, right? Circumstances have changed, and this announcement is top secret regardless.
 
Lancelot said:
Not at all? It's reputable japanese press, you're the same one saying we haven't got news about devkits (despite many people mentioning 11 developers had them by 2021)? Speculation is in the title, you know what to expect here.
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We know who the super VIP is? No
What company they come from? No
If they even even visited Nintendo? No
 
Lancelot said:
Fr, better go crazy after the 9th. We already got a major Famitsu leak and it's only been five days, calm down.
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I was mostly joking, but a "whats happening" post to look up would be fine.
I feel sometimes the leakes only develop, and there is no real Trademark or update to the OP on whats happening, but its also hard to parse with so much half answers and disappointment thrown around.
While i don't know who in his right mind would want to keep that updated, i really would appreciate a catch up sometimes to know what happened the last 10 pages in 1 night.
 
Hermii said:
We know who the super VIP is? No
What company they come from? No
If they even even visited Nintendo? No
Click to expand...
And? They're saying it for a reason, even the leaker is being quirky about it because they obviously know more than us. Again, speculation is in the title, deal with it or leave until we get another clue.
 
Aether said:
I was mostly joking, but a "whats happening" post to look up would be fine.
I feel sometimes the leakes only develop, and there is no real Trademark or update to the OP on whats happening, but its also hard to parse with so much half answers and disappointment thrown around.
While i don't know who in his right mind would want to keep that updated, i really would appreciate a catch up sometimes to know what happened the last 10 pages in 1 night.
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I know you were joking, but many others are certainly serious (as ironic that is, given the title of the thread).
 
Lancelot said:
And? They're saying it for a reason, even the leaker is being quirky about it because they obviously know more than us. Again, speculation is in the title, deal with it or leave until we get another clue.
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I just thoroughly disagree with your claim that this is some sort of a major leak. Let's just leave it at that.
 
Lancelot said:
Mine? I'm just following the thread as it is just like the others, if you know japanese go blame Nishikawa yourself.
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"The thread" never actually agrees on any one particular thing because we in the thread are not a hive mind. Personally I think that news is maybe meaningful but certainly not something concrete at this stage.
 
Skittzo said:
"The thread" never actually agrees on any one particular thing because we in the thread are not a hive mind. Personally I think that news is maybe meaningful but certainly not something concrete at this stage.
Click to expand...
If it was confirmed it wouldn't be a leak, though... We still have a common ground to stand for which if you wanted to know about, you could just ask.
 
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kvetcha said:
can we leave people be?
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For real. This is a speculation thread. We are all speculating based on minimal information, and that speculation may or may not prove to be correct, and may or may not change as new information emerges and/or time passes. Calling people out when they change their speculation or turn out to be wrong, or gloating when you turn out to be right, is just unpleasant and has no place in this thread, in my opinion
CypressFX said:
Not if people insists to have real info.
Click to expand...
Honestly, who cares? Let's say Polygon is faking it. What are the consequences? Are they getting money or fame from this? Do you think being hostile towards them will make them see the error of their ways?
 
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CypressFX said:
Hmm, to be honest, this sounds to me as you have started to backpedal, havent you?
Click to expand...

Entertaining other possibilities (because that's been the main discussion in this thread since the DF video) while simultaneously confirming that everything they've previously shared is still solid according to their source, is not "backpedaling".
 
Skittzo said:
"The thread" never actually agrees on any one particular thing because we in the thread are not a hive mind. Personally I think that news is maybe meaningful but certainly not something concrete at this stage.
Click to expand...

I don't consider that "Super VIP" thing to be anything. People go on business trips and visit partners all the time for lots of reasons. I won't rain on anyone's parade but as far as I'm concerned it is less than nothing. Whatever they are hinting at (if they are even hinting) is nothing providing additional value so meh.
 
Skittzo said:
In September 2021 we got a report that at least 11 major publishers have devkits.

I do agree it's odd we haven't heard much since then though.
Click to expand...
Switch 2/Pro/Drake speculation didn't really have any credence until Bloomberg and WSJ got involved. Both of them dropping the ball and being wrong and confusing the OLED for a successor was a huge blow.

Makes me think there never was 11 dev kits out there to begin with.
 
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