At least this will give some room for a mariko-tier upgrade in the future.
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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)
- Thread starter Dakhil
- Start date
PedroNavajas
Boo
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- He, him
I have always said that 8nm is not ideal and disappointing for 2023. Still better than 20nm in 2017, but not by much.
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That's the issue actually, there's no clear and easy die shrink path for Samsung 8nm. Supposedly.
Z0m3le
Bob-omb
It's worth noting that Samsung did take a SoC just a year or two ago and moved it from 8nm DUV to 7nm EUV inside of 12 months... Considering Nvidia's AI tech to help with such a process, 8nm DUV to 5nm EUV should be very doable from say brainchild's info last spring to the beginning of this year.
I think it is also worth noting that the end result is what matters and from the clocks I posted recently, 8nm would be fine for a current gen upgrade, should out perform XBSS easily.
RennanNT
Bob-omb
Yeah, those specs you posted are above what most people expected from 7nm/6nm. If Nintendo use those clocks and someone isn't satisfied with that, I doubt they would anyway.
1x A78@3GHz consumes 1W on 5nm, so they won't clock much higher than 1.7 even on 5/4nm. And as you said, there's only so much they can raise the GPU until it's bandwidth starved by the LPPDDR.
mjayer
Moblin
I was under the impression Samsung 8nm was an industry disappointment, like around 20% or more less performant than equivalent TSMC node. Which if it’s the case we can get a 3 TF docked experience with it, I would imagine a 5nm TSMC chip would get like double that.
6TF with DLSS 2.x on top would put the thing squarely in PS5/XBSX territory, which is insane.
6TF with DLSS 2.x on top would put the thing squarely in PS5/XBSX territory, which is insane.
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Then in that case there's really no issue with Samsung 8nm. That definitely should be the expectation at this point.
Z0m3le
Bob-omb
It's always been the performance expectation that I've pushed, especially in portable mode.
No, 8nm is actually a really old node, basically Samsung 10nm with a lot of optimization, it was first used like 10 years ago iirc, but 8nm is the end of the optimizations, the problem with 4nm is that yes it's better, but more like ~60% than 100%, so you'd get at most 5TFLOPs, but the cost for 4N would be much higher, just look at Ada's pricing, and I don't think that is from Nvidia being greedy (though 12GB 4080 is dishonest), remember TSMC raised their prices a lot since the pandemic started, meanwhile Samsung lost a bunch of partners to TSMC, they would probably give the best deal to Nintendo, and 5nm Samsung isn't off the table, it would only result in up to a 20% increase IMO, but that would get you 2GHz CPU and probably 1.6TFLOPs portable with 3.6TFLOPs docked... just a rough guess at the numbers here.
Clock/ battery life ratio.
Answered above.
Z0m3le
Bob-omb
Current Switch games would likely run 10 hours lol
No, I think it will be comparable to the PS2 during the 6th generation, it won't be nearly as powerful as Gamecube or Xbox, but it will play the same games and pass the casual market easily, it should be able to output the same resolution as those consoles though, just expect lower frame rates/less graphical detail, but a big step above last gen consoles, including the pro models when docked, and comparable to XBSS when portable.
ShaunSwitch
Moblin
Ultimately I think you are right in that the console will be engineered around its biggest bottle neck, that being the memory bandwidth, pushing too far beyond 3TF from the GPU doesn't make sense if the memory bandwidth becomes an issue, no node change is going to solve that problem, even using LPDDR5X would only help a little. So there is a theoretical ceiling for performance based on the above, they then just use a node that can hit or get close to that ceiling for their target battery life.
So it doesn't matter if its 8nm Samsung or 4nm TSMC, that memory bottle neck still dictates what the new switches performance will be like.
This is likely going to remain a bottleneck for this style of hardware for some years too. Unless Nintendo and Nvidia somehow crack reading and writing data to DNA or something.
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I think TSMC N5/N4 was pretty clearly never in the cards for this device. There’s just a huge premium associated with that right now and Apple is still using a huge chunk of the capacity. Basically, for any console-like device that has to sell for console-like prices, for “what node is the best it can realistically be” look for whatever node that Apple just moved on from. They’re still heavily using N5/N5P/N4. So for me it was always between Samsung 8nm and TSMC N7/N6 for this new Switch.
What matters are the specs. If we’re able to get the specs on Samsung 8nm that we were expecting on TSMC N7 or N6, I don’t see how that would be a disappointment. Especially if it helps the hardware be sold at a more reasonable price, which is something that I think is extremely important to Nintendo.
This isn’t going to just be a Switch OLED with a brain transplant. There are going to be other new features, things we don’t know about, and those features will also have a cost associated with them that Nintendo has to account for as well. They also might need to put some of their hardware budget toward upping the onboard storage capacity, given the larger file sizes of next-gen games.
What matters are the specs. If we’re able to get the specs on Samsung 8nm that we were expecting on TSMC N7 or N6, I don’t see how that would be a disappointment. Especially if it helps the hardware be sold at a more reasonable price, which is something that I think is extremely important to Nintendo.
This isn’t going to just be a Switch OLED with a brain transplant. There are going to be other new features, things we don’t know about, and those features will also have a cost associated with them that Nintendo has to account for as well. They also might need to put some of their hardware budget toward upping the onboard storage capacity, given the larger file sizes of next-gen games.
Z0m3le
Bob-omb
Well according to Dakhil's posts with the tweets on the last page, DLSS 3.0 is seemingly possible on Drake hardware and seems to only not be possible on Turing, though performance would still be a barrier, this will double FPS at the cost of millisecond response, it would also mean the CPU is not a bottleneck for FPS.
LoneRanger
Paratroopa
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I would wait until early next year to assume next HW will get easily get PS5/XSS games until it’s officially announced and we see its (exclusive) support. In addition to start hearing some whispers from insiders like Nate or Emily.
Otherwise, I don’t see for example Remedy porting Alan Wake 2 or Bandai-Namco developing a version of Tekken 8 to next Switch.
On the other hand. I fully expect all games with cross-gen versions to get Switch 2 ports; there are various that can easily fill first 2 years like Elder Ring, RDR2, Wo Long, various RE titles, Tales of Arise, etc.
Otherwise, I don’t see for example Remedy porting Alan Wake 2 or Bandai-Namco developing a version of Tekken 8 to next Switch.
On the other hand. I fully expect all games with cross-gen versions to get Switch 2 ports; there are various that can easily fill first 2 years like Elder Ring, RDR2, Wo Long, various RE titles, Tales of Arise, etc.
Z0m3le
Bob-omb
They released a Tekken game on Wii U...
LiC
Member
It begins.
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If 8nm is capable of the clocks being discussed (which were on the mid-high range of expectations, at least IMO) at this power consumption then why on earth does it matter? On a newer node you'd get maybe slightly better performance or battery life but nothing drastic.
Angel Whispers
Follow me at @angelpagecdlmhq
No, it isn't really worth entertaining, tbqh... A point comes where there are no gains in battery life, cooler temperature or savings in power consumption. 2017 portable clocks are well below that point. It's also worth remembering that on a 7nm lithograph, Steam Deck (with less efficient x86 architecture and without a docked mode) can hit up to 1.6GHz. With the better GPU, T239 can eclipse it at 550MHz before RT and DLSS. I feel anything in the 500-600MHz range is plausible at the lower end for portable mode. This would be a relatively modest increase from 460MHz, which is understood to be the higher end of the portable boost clocks in the 2017 Switch (About 8% increase at 500MHz, about 18% increase at 550MHz, and about 30% increase at 600MHz), and as your post states 6nm and 4nm, the capacity to have an even higher minimum portable clock is there. However, I feel that the lower end of frequencies are fine in portable mode, as the graphics have more scalability, and will likely start at a lower resolution... I also expect the CPU to be the more significant upgrade across the board (I think a 2-2.2GHz CPU is possible).
We have established that a 1.6GHz GPU clockspeed under worse present-day conditions is possible in Steam Deck for portable mode (OK, 7nm is hardly "bad" conditions, but it isn't the 6 and 4nm in your post...) - 977MHz would be relatively modest for a docked system where ARM architecture is more efficient than x86, putting it in 3TF territory before RT and DLSS. However, we know that the Mariko SoC had a docked GPU boost clock at 1.267GHz. 1.3GHz docked mode on a better lithography process is not only about 19% lower than the Steam Deck's portable clock, it would put it in 4TF territory before RT and DLSS, AND it would be barely a 2% increase on that Mariko boost clock. As for the battery life, there are natural gains in performance and efficiency of the various parts, as well as from the significant improvements in lithography processes.
I know it isn't a popular view, but I wholeheartedly disagree with the idea that "Switch 2" is the easiest or "best of both worlds". It works for the PlayStation brand because they've sold boxes with the same tired-ass Dual Shock controller variant for 25 years. With regard to hardware specifically, the cardinal numbering convention spells "More of the same". It doesn;t spell "imagination" in the way that Wii, Switch, Game Boy or Dreamcast had done. It isn't the same as with software, where you can see the difference with the screenshots, and in motion. It means an era of predictability, and as I wrote elsewhere, that leads to complacency, stagnation, and ultimately, decline. It doesn't always help an established brand, either. Personally, I like the idea of Switch Advance, and even the relatively safe Switch Ultra. However, I am of the belief that "relative safety" is where we're heading, until new gameplay concepts and form factors emerge (I believe they will at some point) - I feel that Nintendo will adopt the ordinal numbering convention instead, because it would likely be perceived as "different enough" to what PlayStation uses, and older models will be discontinued quietly. So, It would be "Nintendo Switch (2nd Gen, 3rd Gen, 4th Gen, etc.)", but whichever model you own, people will still call it "Switch". Most people don't call their phones "iPhone 14" or "Note 20" but "iPhone" or "Note", and I suspect Nintendo is aiming for something like that. It would be in line with architectural roadmaps, and when there's a new one, they can see the infographics for specs, etc. - I feel Nintendo will do more of this.
Except x86 devices are much less effiecient than ARM-derivative ones. They also don't have neural units, which the next Switch will have for DLSS, so, their GPUs are pushed more intensively - In Steam Deck's case, its GPU clocks up to 1,6GHz. This is for a portable, when home console clock speeds are 1.565GHz for XSS, 1.8GHz for XSX and 2.2GHz for PS5, hence the poorer battery life. For this successor, we don't know what elements of Lovelace will be on it, but they were reported. Even without, the clock speed wouldn't need to be anywhere near as high as 1.6GHz in portable mode (as mentioned above, it eclipses Steam Deck's 1.6TF at 550MHz, and even a lower frequency hasn't factored in RT or DLSS, or the likelihood that the battery would power a lower resolution screen. So, it's not quite the same here.My questions just regarding A100 in comparison to what T239 will utilize is mostly due to GA100 SM diagram not having RT cores at all and FP64 units allocated to the die.
A100 SM
GA102 SM
My main concern with TSMC 7nm is that we have the Steamdeck and we know what kind of efficiency that gets on the node.
An 8 CPU core with 12SM GPU part just screams absolute terrible battery life and we know the Switch family of systems will never include a battery anywhere close in size to the Steamdeck (not factoring in Ampere being less efficient than RDNA2) ...
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Hajeman
Handheld
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- Mr.
I still think Nintendo choose Samsung compare to TSMC because it's cheaper. So based on this info, it's between Samsung 7nm EUV & 5nm EUV.
LoneRanger
Paratroopa
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Yeah but we didn’t get so far any Tekken on Switch, idk, I’m very skeptical regarding current gen game ports to Switch “2”. Its true that considering Nintendo pushed to get a collaboration in Smash, its possible they will try again to convinced Harada to port Tekken to their next hw, we don’t what his answer would be lol.
With discussed specs, if Capcom can scaled down SF6 to PS4, I’m sure B-N can port without many issues TK8 to Switch 2. The best scenario would be announcing ports of TTT1/2 to Switch 1, TK7 Complete version to Switch 2 and promise in the future that TK8 will be also available.
Mr.Gamerson
Octorok
If we get those specs on 8nm, that means the system can be cheaper which will be great for Nintendo and consumers. I wonder if 8nm makes a $350 break even Switch 2 more plausible or maybe we will get more upgrades in other parts of the system since Nintendo may have extra money in their budget.
SiG
Chain Chomp
You're not the only one who feels that Sony's naming conventions just seem wrong for a new Nintendo successor console. Calling the thing "Switch Pro" is pretty unimaginative, and "Switch 2" would make as much sense as calling the Nintendo 64 "Nintendo Entertainment System 3" with a Spiderman font. If anything, I'm sticking with "Super Nintendo Switch": The name "Super Nintendo" hasn't really been used in Japan outside from "Super Nintendo Land", and people who associate it with the actual Super NES will know it for its amazing library. In fact, Super NES is just an abbreviation for Super Nintendo Entertainment System, so calling a new device Super Nintendo Switch is still a valid callsign, not to mention you can always excuse the naming since technically the Switch is able to play SNES games via Nintendo Switch Online.
Now "Switch Pro"...tell that to the people trying to get a Nintendo Switch Pro Controller. Do they mean the system or the controller?
Sic the ninjas at him!
Z0m3le
Bob-omb
I think Tekken needs it more than Nintendo.
I also think a lot of Capcom games would come. I am not sure how much of the market is free to move games to Switch, but multiplats would come to Drake.
Mr.Gamerson
Octorok
Yeah, I think with these specs, the Japanese Devs will be more likely to make sure their games work on Drake Day 1.
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PedroNavajas
Boo
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That's a bit unfair. I have always tried to be reasonable with my expectations. I think is reasonable to be disapointed to get an older node when much better ones are mature and available.
Even if they did, it wouldn't be a repeat of the Wii U. Because this time around, there would be actually decent hardware for third parties to port games, retro compatibility with the soon-to-be 3rd most sold console of all time and a platform with a proven concept as a base that doesn't impede game development with gimmicks like a tablet or a second screen.Can't wait to see how Nintendo will screw everything up with the name
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tbh yeah. A lot of Japanese franchises are going to be in that position if they still want relevancy in their home market.
Yeah, I’ve especially been eyeing the Resident Evil 4 release date pretty hard for Drake. Right at the end of Nintendo’s fiscal year, alongside a major release from a third party they’ve had a consistently close relationship with over the 3DS and Switch…and we know there’s a PS4 version of RE4, so porting it isn’t going to be an issue.
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The thing is, we know the specs already regardless of node. The only difference you'd get with a newer node is like 20-30% better battery life, or maybe 10-15% better performance. Not a very big difference, despite it being a "much better" node.
The main reason why people had been speculating that it wasn't 8nm was because we were not sure if these specs would be achievable on 8nm. Since the data seems to show that they indeed are, that can only be a good thing.
HankyPanky
Bob-omb
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- Funcle
i'm not sure the name will be particularly exciting, all it needs to do is have Switch in there and communicate it is the model for enhanced visuals.
Nintendo Switch (4k Model)
you've got the main hook in there and follows the naming convention of the OLED model. doesn't sound like a totally new thing but part of the existing family which is how it will be marketed. otherwise Nintendo Switch Advance would be my pick from the more imaginative titles, callback to the GBA which was fully BC with enhanced visuals.
Nintendo Switch (4k Model)
you've got the main hook in there and follows the naming convention of the OLED model. doesn't sound like a totally new thing but part of the existing family which is how it will be marketed. otherwise Nintendo Switch Advance would be my pick from the more imaginative titles, callback to the GBA which was fully BC with enhanced visuals.
I think he's worried about battery life.
Stinky Horse
Bob-omb
That and it might be quite a chunky chip at Samsung 8nm.
MusicProposition
Bob-omb
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I see that unlikely since while probably being quite powerful, this is still gonna be a very different kind of chipset compared to XSX/PS5.
Also, its not only about the hardware but also contracts and cooperation between Nintendo and 3rd party studios. I don't get the impression that Nintendo really cares a lot about Ubisoft, T2, WB etc. Both sides need to take action, its not always the "bad punishers that ignore the Switch".
Also, since this will be a drastic change from the OG Switch, it depends a lot on popularity. I often underestimate the fact that they need to promote this whole new system when so many people already bought the first model. I don't think its gonna be easy to sell this new one tbh.
PedroNavajas
Boo
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I would not say that 30% better battery life is insignificant.
Onizuka
Great Player Onizuka
But the number of Tflops you put are FP32 or FP16? thank you.
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Heat shouldn't be an issue if it's running at about the same wattage as the original Switch. Theoretically it shouldn't be getting any hotter than that.
Well yeah that's included in the idea that we weren't sure if these specs were doable on 8nm.
Well then that's your perspective. I'm not exactly claiming it's insignificant, but it's also not some huge failing either. It's a tradeoff between R&D/price and efficiency.
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Are they available, though? At the prices Nintendo needs? They’re not going to price this thing like an iPhone.
I think sometimes people discount how much the inherent complexity of the Switch design already adds to the cost. Like, it has to come with three rechargeable batteries in the box, unlike any other console or tablet. It has to come with two controllers that communicate wirelessly with the base unit, unlike any other console or tablet. Each of those controllers needs to have their own independent motion sensors, unlike any other console or tablet. And so on. There’s a reason the Switch actually dropped features that had been mainstays on Nintendo portable hardware for years, like a mic (since 2004) or cameras (since 2008). They were trying to hit a price point.
LoneRanger
Paratroopa
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I don’t think so. IMO, If I had to bet, I think late year we will get REVII, 2R and 3R ports. Early 2024, (timed) exclusive RE title (also compatible with Switch 1) and by later 2024, Village and 4R ports. If DMC4 was already ported to Switch, I would be also confident on a DMC5 port. Maybe they will try to be day 1 with SFVI? Nintendo pushed to get USFII early on and the game is clearly releasing FY2023/24.
If I have to guess, I think Koei-Tecmo will be day with a Wo Long day 1 port. There were day 1 with Switch (with DQHeroes 1+2) and are a very good Nintendo partner. Square-Enix is also a very good supporter but don’t know what else they can port quickly, maybe FFXV? I would suggest FFVIIR1 but don’t know how long exclusivity will last with Sony. If it expires next june, I can see getting a quick announcement to XB and Switch 2 systems.
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They’re not going to want to make it sound like 4K visuals are the only upgrade for this thing.
Also, what would you call the eventual Switch Lite version of this? Nothing about it would be 4K.
Stinky Horse
Bob-omb
That's basically Capcom's favourite time of the year, I wouldn't read anything into that. RE4 certainly could and should get a port, but I doubt it being Day 1, or even announced until the first versions have launched.
Serif
𝕽𝖊𝖓𝖊𝖌𝖆𝖉𝖊 𝕬𝖓𝖌𝖊𝖑
We take it for granted, as members of an enthusiast forum, our ability to look past a name and figure out the hardware behind it.
A name like "New Nintendo Switch", we think "oh, like the New 3DS, which was upgraded 3DS hardware with exclusives". Thats not immediately clear to everyone. Heck, when it first revealed I thought the big deal was improved 3D and a second stick. I didn't even want one because most of my games would look and feel the same. It feels like underselling this device's power.
Same with Switch 4K model, "So it has a 4K screen?". Nope. "Oh, so it does 4K for every game?" Nope. We here know about DLSS and that a new chip is required for 4K to be feasible and that the new chip is a substantial leap. "Why should I buy this? I only play portable / don't have a 4K display". You see these kinds of comments even on enthusiast forums.
Drake is an upgrade across the board, it is the next gen Switch. If they have a low key name it's just going to work against them, even if the rest of their marketing is solid. A lot of folks never look past the name.
A name like "New Nintendo Switch", we think "oh, like the New 3DS, which was upgraded 3DS hardware with exclusives". Thats not immediately clear to everyone. Heck, when it first revealed I thought the big deal was improved 3D and a second stick. I didn't even want one because most of my games would look and feel the same. It feels like underselling this device's power.
Same with Switch 4K model, "So it has a 4K screen?". Nope. "Oh, so it does 4K for every game?" Nope. We here know about DLSS and that a new chip is required for 4K to be feasible and that the new chip is a substantial leap. "Why should I buy this? I only play portable / don't have a 4K display". You see these kinds of comments even on enthusiast forums.
Drake is an upgrade across the board, it is the next gen Switch. If they have a low key name it's just going to work against them, even if the rest of their marketing is solid. A lot of folks never look past the name.
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It’s less that it’s Capcom’s favorite time of the year and more that it’s Nintendo’s second favorite time of the year and they’ve announced precisely nothing for that slot. Which is odd.
If you’re Nintendo, and you’re planning a release of new hardware around the end of your fiscal year, with which you hope to make further inroads into the enthusiast “gamer” market, and one of your closest partners is also releasing a major “gamer” game around then…do you try to get that game day one? I think you do.
I’m not saying I’m 100% convinced it will happen, just that I continue to eye that release date with suspicion. They could certainly do a lot worse than to launch this thing alongside RE4.
Angel Whispers
Follow me at @angelpagecdlmhq
While that would be sweet for the fans, I would settle for the games being there on the same day as other versions. They won't be the lead platform among certain publishers. If growth is the idea, then it would be deeply lamentable if, having worked so hard to bring Witcher 3 to Switch, Witcher 4 didn't come to the successor, for example. I'll never understand those who say more "impossible XB1/PS4 ports" because none of them were "impossible" in the first place. I also can't identify an existing XB1/PS4 title which isn't on Switch, that could be a hardware sales driver. The GTA5 ship has sailed, optimal sales opportunities for RE Remakes have passed, past CODs won't do it, past Assassin's Creeds won't do it, and the Arkham Collection won't do it. Portable Dark Souls Trilogy should've been there yesterday, given the success of multiple JRPGs, and the same goes for Elden Ring. There is literally nothing of note which isn't there already. The few that aren't will come eventually, but beyond that, it has to be getting PS5/XS titles. Hate to bang on about generational purpose, but it's a demonstrable fact that the XB1/PS4 libraries have been exhausted, and there is no growth in building a new system for cross-gen ports, when the cross-gen period is almost done, and the current Switch could have had those games, if only the publishers we prepared to do it.
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Nintendo definitely undersold the New 3DS’s power. If you go back and look at their marketing beats for the New 3DS XL, they had four key pillars:
1) improved face-tracking 3D
2) amiibo support
3) expanded control options
4) “faster processing,” which they seems to demo mostly in the context of it reducing load times for games like SSB
If we consider the New 3DS non-XL, they had two other marketing points:
5) bigger screens
6) customizable faceplates
The dramatic improvements to the CPU and RAM, the sorts of things we’ve all been most concerned with in this thread, were just one of 4-6 key selling features of the product from Nintendo’s perspective.
I think they’ll be a little bit more focused on the dramatic performance increase this time, because it enables a bunch of ports of third party games in the way that the New 3DS getting a CPU/RAM bump really didn’t. But there will be more to the new Switch hardware story than just a better SoC, and they’re not ever going to choose a name that suggests that the new SoC is the only or primary improvement. They know a lot of their market does not really care that much about visual fidelity.
D
Deleted member 887
Guest
A node isn’t a thing you “get.” A node is a tool. We have no new info regarding what node Nintendo will use, we just have information that Nvidia is way more power efficient than we thought. How is that a bad thing?
Would you prefer a world where Ampere was less efficient, forcing Nintendo to use the smaller node? Why? All that means is that you'd get the same specs that @Z0m3le posted, at a higher cost.
All @BlackTangMaster has done is prove how good the chip is, and that it probably won't be $500. This is pure good news
Would you prefer a world where Ampere was less efficient, forcing Nintendo to use the smaller node? Why? All that means is that you'd get the same specs that @Z0m3le posted, at a higher cost.
All @BlackTangMaster has done is prove how good the chip is, and that it probably won't be $500. This is pure good news
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