If Im understanding your question here...Cheers, "risk threshold" is a cogent way to frame it.
That can be used w/ eg smartphone adoption as well. Iphones have only gotten more expensive, but it took time to get "late adopters" on board and willing to pay that relatively high price as the value proposition was clearly established.
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It gets me thinking: The introduction of the new Switch is a potentially sticky situation.
The early adopters (which is what, perhaps 14-20million, including all of us here) are raring for it. The value prop, enhanced fidelity, is a strong selling point for us.
But what about the next 80 million in potential sales after that? Will the new Switch clearly do something novel enough or better enough than the current Switch to convince the later adopters?
If e.g. Mario Kart 9 is "cross-gen" and turns out to be pretty-dang-good-enough 1080p/60 on current Switch, does this impede overall adoption of the new system?
Do we have any idea of how Denuvo for Switch works and if will it compromise BC?
Knowing Denuvo, I think the real concern is if a game would even run at all even if legit.Do we have any idea of how Denuvo for Switch works and if will it compromise BC?
Switch OLED?Then again, I do feel like a "switch 4K" in 2023 (or 2024) is a bit of a gamble. It's going to be a premium product (so no "need" to upgrade) for a select few enthusiasts in a time of economic uncertainty, and for a very high price. The precedent for a Nintendo Premium console SKU is... the Panasonic GameCube?
Nintendo should really just go back to their passive aggressive anti-piracy methods for emulator-exclusive messagesI doubt it, cause according to the headline on their press release....
The innovative solution solves a long-lasting issue of emulating pirate Nintendo Switch games on PC
Denuvo by Irdeto launches the industry’s first Nintendo Switch Emulator Protection
The innovative solution solves a long-lasting issue of emulating pirate Nintendo Switch games on PC, addressing the widespread piracy on multiplatform releases.irdeto.com
....it won't be on a Switch at all.
Mmmmmm... Sorta but not really. It's basically the same price and will substitute the og model. It's more of a GBA SP than a PS4 proSwitch OLED?
I disagree that the chip cost would cause that priceThe Drake was never going to be priced lower than $449. Not while the OLED is still $349. You can't have the OLED and iterative successor be $50 apart.
Also, I doubt you're getting a 12SM GPU and octo-core mobile chipset with tensor cores and DLSS for less than $450. Even at $450 that's likely Nintendo taking a small loss.
And currency rate … USD>Eur and most transactions are in USDI disagree that the chip cost would cause that price
It's more inflation than anything at this point
New 3DS? DSi? GBC? 2 out of those 3 sold quite well.Yeah, that'll have to be it. Then again, I do feel like a "switch 4K" in 2023 (or 2024) is a bit of a gamble. It's going to be a premium product (so no "need" to upgrade) for a select few enthusiasts in a time of economic uncertainty, and for a very high price. The precedent for a Nintendo Premium console SKU is... the Panasonic GameCube?
How many of those cost 150$ more than the original console? The GBC came at the tail end of the GB life cycle and was very cheap.New 3DS? DSi? GBC? 2 out of those 3 sold quite well.
Unless by "console" you're arbitrarily discounting portables.
You're right, $500 is a hard sell. I think it's too much for Nintendo's mainline console, completely. They'll price themselves out of the market.How many of those cost 150$ more than the original console? The GBC came at the tail end of the GB life cycle and was very cheap.
Idk, at this point I think I'm just repeating myself without really sounding convincing. I think that a portable that costs 500€ and isn't entirely a sequel to the Switch is a hard sell. I think that even a switch 2 at 500€ would find it difficult to sell
I don't think Nintendo will got to $500, but I think their hands might be kinda tied. Since a "Pro" model has to be profitable per-unit, and with inflation/supply problems driving costs, they might be stuck.K don't have hard data but I don't think Nintendo would do it because it doesn't really fall in line with their business model. Even their 3DS and their DSI never went way over the price of the original console.
We'll see, I guess.
It will have to actually run as part of the game on the Switch, in order to run as part of the game when emulated and therefore interfere with it. If it just tried to detect an emulator and only kick in then, it would be trivial to defeat.I doubt it, cause according to the headline on their press release....
The innovative solution solves a long-lasting issue of emulating pirate Nintendo Switch games on PC
Denuvo by Irdeto launches the industry’s first Nintendo Switch Emulator Protection
The innovative solution solves a long-lasting issue of emulating pirate Nintendo Switch games on PC, addressing the widespread piracy on multiplatform releases.irdeto.com
....it won't be on a Switch at all.
I would love to hear the explanations from the $500 crowd of what Nintendo actually intends to sell as their main hardware, because a $500 SKU isn't it. The most expensive (base SKU) sticker price on a Nintendo console ever is $350 for the OLED, and inflation is a non-argument since the OLED's inflation-adjusted price is $380, not $450 or something. The original Switch's inflation-adjusted price is $360. Why anyone thinks they're going to add $150 (or arguably $200) to the sticker price of a new model absolutely baffles me.
A $100 increase is already a huge jump, more than Nintendo has ever done (and still a whopping $150 over the base Switch). $450 is certainly enough to hit premium territory, especially when you're looking at it side-by-side with systems that sell for $200(!!), $300, and $350 -- depending on which of those they keep around.The assumption usually is that Switch OLED launched at $350 and they’re probably not going to drop the price within 18 months of its launch. Given this, how else do you propose they position a brand new piece of hardware that is vastly superior to the current models?
If it’s launching in the next 6 months~ $450 feels like a minimum. I don’t have an answer for how they intend to sell it as their main hardware - perhaps they simply won’t for a couple more years. Let the 20 million (?) enthusiasts bite for a while before removing the OG Switch from market and eventually bringing Drake under $400.
It will have to actually run as part of the game on the Switch, in order to run as part of the game when emulated and therefore interfere with it. If it just tried to detect an emulator and only kick in then, it would be trivial to defeat.
380 today, but more than that 6+ months from now. Considering OLED improved the specs by 0 and is still selling really well, I think it's reasonable to expect something that improves the specs by A Lot to bump the price at least as much as OLED did, which easily gets to 450+ territory for 2023.I would love to hear the explanations from the $500 crowd of what Nintendo actually intends to sell as their main hardware, because a $500 SKU isn't it. The most expensive (base SKU) sticker price on a Nintendo console ever is $350 for the OLED, and inflation is a non-argument since the OLED's inflation-adjusted price is $380, not $450 or something. The original Switch's inflation-adjusted price is $360. Why anyone thinks they're going to add $150 (or arguably $200) to the sticker price of a new model absolutely baffles me.
In a world where Switch had had regular price drops and the Mariko and OLED were going for $150-200, I'd agree with you. But if the market is still eating up 90+ month old Maxwell at the current prices, they surely don't feel as much pressure to shoot for as low as they possibly could for something much more advanced. Of course, that can always backfire. In retrospect I'm sure they wished the Wii U launched for less and the Switch launched for more.Positioning is one thing, but there's also the question of justifying the cost itself. There is inflation, and Nintendo's costs will be up, yes, but it's not like the tech is that much more cutting-edge? 2nd-gen Maxwell GPUs were released in September 2014, the year Switch development began, and the console launched 30 months later. Ampere GPUs were released in September 2020, the year development of the new model likely began in earnest, and this console will launch somewhere between 26 and 36 months after that.
I don't believe Nintendo will put a Pro at $500. But I also don't Nintendo will position a Pro as their main hardware. All that said, I'm much happier speculating about polygons and silicon than dollars and shipping routes.I would love to hear the explanations from the $500 crowd of what Nintendo actually intends to sell as their main hardware, because a $500 SKU isn't it.
This is a little disingenuous. The TX1 was years old, off the shelf with development costs recouped by Nvidia before Nintendo made the first Switch, and Maxwell was two micoarch generations behind current gen, with Turing be a major architectural overhaul.Positioning is one thing, but there's also the question of justifying the cost itself. There is inflation, and Nintendo's costs will be up, yes, but it's not like the tech is that much more cutting-edge? 2nd-gen Maxwell GPUs were released in September 2014, the year Switch development began, and the console launched 30 months later. Ampere GPUs were released in September 2020, the year development of the new model likely began in earnest, and this console will launch somewhere between 26 and 36 months after that.
I don't like the revision vs. successor debate, but there is one particular way where considering this new model a "Pro"/revision is impossible, and that's the idea that it will be positioned as a PS4 Pro-like premium model that exists in parallel for exactly the remaining lifespan of the base model, before both are replaced by a new generation. We know this is impossible because third parties are already preparing "model-exclusives" for it at or around launch, and because it's simply too late for it to happen -- it would mean either an impossibly long lifespan of the original Switch model while the next generation is developed, or an impossibly short development time for said next gen in order to launch in the next couple years. And we know it because of the general implausibility of Nintendo spending such massive R&D on a system with a new architecture, and the combability concerns that come with it, and with new features like RT and DLSS, to position it that way, even if it had launched in a timeframe (i.e. 2 years ago) that would make that kind of lifecycle possible.I don't believe Nintendo will put a Pro at $500. But I also don't Nintendo will position a Pro as their main hardware. All that said, I'm much happier speculating about polygons and silicon than dollars and shipping routes.
This is a little disingenuous. The TX1 was years old, off the shelf with development costs recouped by Nvidia before Nintendo made the first Switch, and Maxwell was two micoarch generations behind current gen, with Turing be a major architectural overhaul.
Drake is a custom chip whose cost will be borne solely by Nintendo, and Ampere is still the "current" Nvidia microarch. There is open debate about the degree to which Lovelace is 'just' an Ampere refresh. Also haven't some Lovelace's features been backported (not the cache, unfortunately)?
It'll come down to how good the games look, and how many of them there are, but are there any commercially available SOCs using Ampere? "Current gen, miniaturized" is roughly in line with "next gen, but 20 fans."
Ultimately it will come down to "how much does it cost to make" and "how much are people willing to spend" ie "how good are the games."
Same, but when you’re asking about pricing rationales you have directly invoked this discussion. Fundamental to the pricing question is asking “who is this product for.”I don't like the revision vs. successor debate,
I don’t think this is a given at all. I happen to agree with you that this is the most likely path but I don’t think it is in any way definitively obviousbut there is one particular way where considering this new model a "Pro"/revision is impossible, and that's the idea that it will be positioned as a PS4 Pro-like premium model that exists in parallel for exactly the remaining lifespan of the base model, before both are replaced by a new generation.
The New3DS had exclusives and ran in parallel with the OG 3DS (and a bunch of variants of both) till a simultaneous launch period.We know this is impossible because third parties are already preparing "model-exclusives" for it at or around launch, and because it's simply too late for it to happen -- it would mean either an impossibly long lifespan of the original Switch
model while the next generation is developed, or an impossibly short development time for said next gen in order to launch in the next couple years. And we know it because of the general implausibility of Nintendo spending such massive R&D on a system with a new architecture, and the combability concerns that come with it, and with new features like RT and DLSS, to position it that way, even if it had launched in a timeframe (i.e. 2 years ago) that would make that kind of lifecycle possible.
All that to say, at some point, the new model will be the main model.
TX1 is not Drake when it comes to costs for Nintendo and Ampere in 2022 is not Maxwell in 2017 when it comes to performance or feature set. In the frame of the cost discussion - how much Nintendo needs to charge to make money, and how much potential value exists in the arch for the customerI don't think it's disingenuous at all to look at the development timelines of the consoles vs. the architectures.
I don't disagree with your overall pointA $100 increase is already a huge jump, more than Nintendo has ever done (and still a whopping $150 over the base Switch). $450 is certainly enough to hit premium territory, especially when you're looking at it side-by-side with systems that sell for $200(!!), $300, and $350 -- depending on which of those they keep around.
I wouldn't say they were parallel. New 3DS completely replaced the original 3DS, just like SP to GBA or Lite to DS. IMO the PlayStation comparisons aren't instructive since the timeline is completely different, and the current situation with the PS5 is more like a case of failing to hit escape velocity than it is a strategy on Sony's part.The New3DS had exclusives and ran in parallel with the OG 3DS (and a bunch of variants of both) till a simultaneous launch period.
Sure -- Drake is what TX1 would have been if Nintendo didn't need a shorter and easier path to their next console while they rapidly jumped ship from the Wii U. Drake is the 2020 equivalent of what Nintendo has done for the internals of pretty much all their systems all along. Looking at feature sets and saying that makes Drake bleeding edge in comparison is just ignoring the fact that it's 6 years later. The GTX 900s are now RTX 3000s and they have those features.TX1 is not Drake when it comes to costs for Nintendo and Ampere in 2022 is not Maxwell in 2017 when it comes to performance or feature set. In the frame of the cost discussion - how much Nintendo needs to charge to make money, and how much potential value exists in the arch for the customer
Since it's a $100 increase over the OLED we're talking about, we should include the DSi in there at $170, so still not quite $100 more for 3DS (not to mention the fiasco that was the 3DS's launch price). I'll grant that it's the closest precedent, especially since the DSi wasn't as mainstreamed as New 3DS or even the OLED. Wii U had a $300 SKU, and the $350 one was a bundle that included Nintendo Land (and technically other stuff although no one cared about it).I don't disagree with your overall point
I just want to point out that Both 3DS and Wii U launched $100 above the launch price of their predecessors
(DS $149>3DS $249----Wii $249>Wii U $349)
Both received price drops for obvious reasons
AND I'm not exactly being fair because both older systems received price drops before the new ones launched.
But yeah... as for switch I would expect a launch at $399-$449... $429 is even an option I suppose.
I think that depends on when Nintendo's new hardware actually launches.In both cases, they had some form of plans or prototype for the generation's Tegra to go off. If there was any talk about future architectures, then that would have also been similar, with Nvidia offering Pascal or Lovelace as the cutting edge and Nintendo choosing to use the more current option.
Unless OLED drops to $300 and they quickly phase out v2 models that also get a price cut. And Drake/Next Switch could then be $400 (or perhaps one with less storage and $450 having more)The Drake was never going to be priced lower than $449. Not while the OLED is still $349. You can't have the OLED and iterative successor be $50 apart.
Also, I doubt you're getting a 12SM GPU and octo-core mobile chipset with tensor cores and DLSS for less than $450. Even at $450 that's likely Nintendo taking a small loss.
This is getting into counterfactual territory since we don't know what Nvidia offered Nintendo either in 2014 or in 2019/2020. That's why I said if there was discussion of future architectures, it didn't lead anywhere. In both cases Nintendo went with the architecture that was immediately on the horizon, and whose main line of Nvidia GPUs would be launching a little over 2 years before their eventual console.I think that depends on when Nintendo's new hardware actually launches.
Nvidia mentioned that Atlan, which I presume is using AD10B for the GPU, is planned to be sampled in 2023. So assuming Nintendo's new hardware actually launches in early 2023, an Ada based GPU probably wouldn't be an option for Nintendo, since an Ada based GPU for an Arm based SoC probably wouldn't be finalised and be ready for Nintendo's use until early 2024 at the absolute earliest.
On the other hand, a Pascal based GPU, the GP10B, was already practically finalised and ready for Nintendo's use when Nintendo launched the Nintendo Switch (and arguably if Nintendo still decided to launch the Nintendo Switch on late 2016 according to rumours and since Nvidia gave a presentation on the Tegra X2 (codenamed Parker) at Hot Chips 2016).
Nah, Iwata hated price cuts. He thought it was unfair to their most loyal customers. I could see a Drake revision being cheaper, but I don't think they'd do a price cutI would easily pay $499 for Drake. And if it doesn’t do well at that price point, then they can always drop it later like the 3DS. It’s easier to do the price after launch than to increase it.
Nah, Iwata hated price cuts. He thought it was unfair to their most loyal customers. I could see a Drake revision being cheaper, but I don't think they'd do a price cut
That kinda was his philosophy on price cuts as we saw with the ambassador games with 3DS’ price cut. However, I think a big thing is money. The 3DS price cut was a key reason for Nintendo sliding into the red for the first time. It helped by WiiU’s either loss or very slim margins once the basic model was ousted.
I'm tired and don't have much energy right now.We're at about an astonishing 8-10% annual inflation in most of the western world. 13% in the UK and some other areas. If that ends up lasting two years, you can expect almost everything to have increased in price 20-25% before too long. People will have to adjust.
So while the prospect of a $500 Switch seems outrageous now, as society gets used to "new" prices - for food, energy, iPhones etc - it won't seem too outrageous for too long. Sony hiking the price of the PS5 is one of the first tech/gaming shocks, I think the announcement of this year's iPhone prices will be the next, and it's going to snowball from there.
Appeals to history such as "Nintendo has never priced something over X" will be completely meaningless in such an environment.
I'll repeat myself for the billionth time and say that, while any spec number from the leak could turn out to be different upon release, most of the numbers (including the 12 SMs) are unambiguous, and they're corroborated by many different pieces of the hacked data, both inside NVN2, and outside it in general drivers and other sources of spec info.Unless OLED drops to $300 and they quickly phase out v2 models that also get a price cut. And Drake/Next Switch could then be $400 (or perhaps one with less storage and $450 having more)
TRIGGER WARNING below:
I'm kinda on the fence on a 12 SM GPU.. Like 50-50. Certainly on an 8nm Samsung node. The breach did say the NVN2 Drake is the 12 SM (1500 cuda cores), but we don't if the information is They could be initial dev kits and a modified AGX model that would never be released, while in a second to worst case scenario, the real retail model could be based off the 1000 cuda core NX model 16 GB (102 GB/s bandwidth) using up to +900 MHz GPU and eight A78 CPU running at 2GHz max. 25 watts being the theoretical max, but take out the AI stuff that isn't needed and we bring it closer to OG Switch model's power draw. Also lower RAM from 16GB to 8-12GB.. on 8nm Samsung with similar battery life to OG switch.
Considering the most powerful AGX Orion with 2048 cuda cores is like 5.2 TLOPs at 1.3Ghz GPU speed, then I would expect we would get less than half of that for Drake in this funny and second to worst case scenario.
8nm Samsung would then force Nintendo/nvidia to use a Samsung node for the revision 2 years later as well. 4nm maybe.
This is just speculation for fun. Who knows what will happen. Trying not to hype myself.
Nah, Iwata hated price cuts. He thought it was unfair to their most loyal customers. I could see a Drake revision being cheaper, but I don't think they'd do a price cut
Putting aside the fact that Iwata no longer runs the company - source?
Fair enough. 'hates' is a bit strong still. The quote reads like he just sympathizes with fans on the subject, not necessarily that it was the ruling strategy. They did price cuts for every console when he was president, no?Price Drops? Nintendo President Not A Fan
Nintendo president Satoru Iwata doesn't seem like the biggest fan of the price drop. He says:kotaku.com
do you see the possibility of Nintendo selling the new Nintendo console separating the console from the dock:
console+controllers+charging cable = 350 euro/dollars
dock + tv cable = 100 euro/dollars
It is 100 dollars less in price perception and the splitting of the financial burden in two chunks that each customer can then meet according to their own needs and possibilities.No hybrid capabilities out of the box are huge NO.
Yeah they all got price cuts. This does track a bit with 3DS owners getting 20 free classic games as a peace offering when the handheld got a big price slash in its first year.Fair enough. 'hates' is a bit strong still. The quote reads like he just sympathizes with fans on the subject, not necessarily that it was the ruling strategy. They did price cuts for every console when he was president, no?
it's huge, but to have the potential to add it back in makes it a much easier pill to swallow for people. especially if there are third party docks like there are for the switch. NIntendo can make their money back by having "officially licensed" docksNo hybrid capabilities out of the box are huge NO.
I didn't realize the Splatoon 3 OLED model was already out today, two weeks prior to the actual game's release.
In other instances where Nintendo released a special/limited edition console related to an upcoming game, what was the longest timeframe between said console and the game's release?
Maybe there's nothing special to it but 2 whole weeks seems quite huge to me. Especially with the Splatoon 3 Pro Controller releasing on the same day as the game so it only concerns the OLED console as far as I know.