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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

Nvidia indirectly mentioned how much the penalties are for securing too much process node capacity.
 
We're at about an astonishing 8-10% annual inflation in most of the western world. 13% in the UK and some other areas. If that ends up lasting two years, you can expect almost everything to have increased in price 20-25% before too long. People will have to adjust.

So while the prospect of a $500 Switch seems outrageous now, as society gets used to "new" prices - for food, energy, iPhones etc - it won't seem too outrageous for too long. Sony hiking the price of the PS5 is one of the first tech/gaming shocks, I think the announcement of this year's iPhone prices will be the next, and it's going to snowball from there.

Appeals to history such as "Nintendo has never priced something over X" will be completely meaningless in such an environment.
 
Cheers, "risk threshold" is a cogent way to frame it. ☕

That can be used w/ eg smartphone adoption as well. Iphones have only gotten more expensive, but it took time to get "late adopters" on board and willing to pay that relatively high price as the value proposition was clearly established.

===

It gets me thinking: The introduction of the new Switch is a potentially sticky situation.

The early adopters (which is what, perhaps 14-20million, including all of us here) are raring for it. The value prop, enhanced fidelity, is a strong selling point for us.

But what about the next 80 million in potential sales after that? Will the new Switch clearly do something novel enough or better enough than the current Switch to convince the later adopters?

If e.g. Mario Kart 9 is "cross-gen" and turns out to be pretty-dang-good-enough 1080p/60 on current Switch, does this impede overall adoption of the new system?
If Im understanding your question here...

Yes, many of us do think Drake/Switch Successor will have cross gen support of new 1st party games with Switch for a few years. MP4 is a given.

Also.. As you said, the firt model will target the early adopters/core gamers, but then we'll get a revision in 2 years with a better battery life. Maybe it could be similar to V1 switch vs V2 switch in battery life.
 
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Do we have any idea of how Denuvo for Switch works and if will it compromise BC?

I doubt it, cause according to the headline on their press release....

The innovative solution solves a long-lasting issue of emulating pirate Nintendo Switch games on PC​



....it won't be on a Switch at all.
 
Then again, I do feel like a "switch 4K" in 2023 (or 2024) is a bit of a gamble. It's going to be a premium product (so no "need" to upgrade) for a select few enthusiasts in a time of economic uncertainty, and for a very high price. The precedent for a Nintendo Premium console SKU is... the Panasonic GameCube?
Switch OLED?
 
I doubt it, cause according to the headline on their press release....

The innovative solution solves a long-lasting issue of emulating pirate Nintendo Switch games on PC​



....it won't be on a Switch at all.
Nintendo should really just go back to their passive aggressive anti-piracy methods for emulator-exclusive messages

e48e87b9aecc1351ae90b2c585160bf5b9b0d449_hq.jpg
 
The Drake was never going to be priced lower than $449. Not while the OLED is still $349. You can't have the OLED and iterative successor be $50 apart.

Also, I doubt you're getting a 12SM GPU and octo-core mobile chipset with tensor cores and DLSS for less than $450. Even at $450 that's likely Nintendo taking a small loss.
 
The Drake was never going to be priced lower than $449. Not while the OLED is still $349. You can't have the OLED and iterative successor be $50 apart.

Also, I doubt you're getting a 12SM GPU and octo-core mobile chipset with tensor cores and DLSS for less than $450. Even at $450 that's likely Nintendo taking a small loss.
I disagree that the chip cost would cause that price
It's more inflation than anything at this point
 
Yeah, that'll have to be it. Then again, I do feel like a "switch 4K" in 2023 (or 2024) is a bit of a gamble. It's going to be a premium product (so no "need" to upgrade) for a select few enthusiasts in a time of economic uncertainty, and for a very high price. The precedent for a Nintendo Premium console SKU is... the Panasonic GameCube?
New 3DS? DSi? GBC? 2 out of those 3 sold quite well.

Unless by "console" you're arbitrarily discounting portables.
 
I didn't think Nintendo would price a new Switch at $500 due to the younger demographic they target. However with inflation beimg so out of control I can see it happening. There was no dimension that it would be $400 though. I feel like in one of the QAs Nintendo highlighted the SWOLED margins were worse than the other models. Does more to highlight this crazy new world we live in. I am expecting $450 personally.
 
New 3DS? DSi? GBC? 2 out of those 3 sold quite well.

Unless by "console" you're arbitrarily discounting portables.
How many of those cost 150$ more than the original console? The GBC came at the tail end of the GB life cycle and was very cheap.

Idk, at this point I think I'm just repeating myself without really sounding convincing. I think that a portable that costs 500€ and isn't entirely a sequel to the Switch is a hard sell. I think that even a switch 2 at 500€ would find it difficult to sell. K don't have hard data but I don't think Nintendo would do it because it doesn't really fall in line with their business model. Even their 3DS and their DSI never went way over the price of the original console.

We'll see, I guess.
 
I've been mentally preparing myself/saving on the side for OLED's price tag + $100. So if the OLED stays at $350, then $450 it is for Drake.
I also kinda want to leave open the possibility of OLED + $150, but a potential $500 price tag if the OLED doesn't get a cut does feel like it's risking sticker shock.
 
How many of those cost 150$ more than the original console? The GBC came at the tail end of the GB life cycle and was very cheap.

Idk, at this point I think I'm just repeating myself without really sounding convincing. I think that a portable that costs 500€ and isn't entirely a sequel to the Switch is a hard sell. I think that even a switch 2 at 500€ would find it difficult to sell
You're right, $500 is a hard sell. I think it's too much for Nintendo's mainline console, completely. They'll price themselves out of the market.

A Deluxe Premium model however is different. It doesn't need to sell like hotcakes, because they're not planning on selling 100 million of them. They need to be profitable, because it's not about selling more copies of Mario Kart, the device itself needs to make money.

K don't have hard data but I don't think Nintendo would do it because it doesn't really fall in line with their business model. Even their 3DS and their DSI never went way over the price of the original console.

We'll see, I guess.
I don't think Nintendo will got to $500, but I think their hands might be kinda tied. Since a "Pro" model has to be profitable per-unit, and with inflation/supply problems driving costs, they might be stuck.
 
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I doubt it, cause according to the headline on their press release....

The innovative solution solves a long-lasting issue of emulating pirate Nintendo Switch games on PC


....it won't be on a Switch at all.
It will have to actually run as part of the game on the Switch, in order to run as part of the game when emulated and therefore interfere with it. If it just tried to detect an emulator and only kick in then, it would be trivial to defeat.
 
I’m guessing Drake will run between $449.99 and $499.99. Nintendo doesn’t like taking a loss.
 
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I would love to hear the explanations from the $500 crowd of what Nintendo actually intends to sell as their main hardware, because a $500 SKU isn't it. The most expensive (base SKU) sticker price on a Nintendo console ever is $350 for the OLED, and inflation is a non-argument since the OLED's inflation-adjusted price is $380, not $450 or something. The original Switch's inflation-adjusted price is $360. Why anyone thinks they're going to add $150 (or arguably $200) to the sticker price of a new model absolutely baffles me.
 
I would love to hear the explanations from the $500 crowd of what Nintendo actually intends to sell as their main hardware, because a $500 SKU isn't it. The most expensive (base SKU) sticker price on a Nintendo console ever is $350 for the OLED, and inflation is a non-argument since the OLED's inflation-adjusted price is $380, not $450 or something. The original Switch's inflation-adjusted price is $360. Why anyone thinks they're going to add $150 (or arguably $200) to the sticker price of a new model absolutely baffles me.

The assumption usually is that Switch OLED launched at $350 and they’re probably not going to drop the price within 18 months of its launch. Given this, how else do you propose they position a brand new piece of hardware that is vastly superior to the current models?

If it’s launching in the next 6 months~ $450 feels like a minimum. I don’t have an answer for how they intend to sell it as their main hardware - perhaps they simply won’t for a couple more years. Let the 20 million (?) enthusiasts bite for a while before removing the OG Switch from market and eventually bringing Drake under $400.
 
The assumption usually is that Switch OLED launched at $350 and they’re probably not going to drop the price within 18 months of its launch. Given this, how else do you propose they position a brand new piece of hardware that is vastly superior to the current models?

If it’s launching in the next 6 months~ $450 feels like a minimum. I don’t have an answer for how they intend to sell it as their main hardware - perhaps they simply won’t for a couple more years. Let the 20 million (?) enthusiasts bite for a while before removing the OG Switch from market and eventually bringing Drake under $400.
A $100 increase is already a huge jump, more than Nintendo has ever done (and still a whopping $150 over the base Switch). $450 is certainly enough to hit premium territory, especially when you're looking at it side-by-side with systems that sell for $200(!!), $300, and $350 -- depending on which of those they keep around.

Positioning is one thing, but there's also the question of justifying the cost itself. There is inflation, and Nintendo's costs will be up, yes, but it's not like the tech is that much more cutting-edge? 2nd-gen Maxwell GPUs were released in September 2014, the year Switch development began, and the console launched 30 months later. Ampere GPUs were released in September 2020, the year development of the new model likely began in earnest, and this console will launch somewhere between 26 and 36 months after that.
 
It will have to actually run as part of the game on the Switch, in order to run as part of the game when emulated and therefore interfere with it. If it just tried to detect an emulator and only kick in then, it would be trivial to defeat.

Ah I see. Good to know. I still don't think it's worth worrying about any time soon, if at all.
 
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I would love to hear the explanations from the $500 crowd of what Nintendo actually intends to sell as their main hardware, because a $500 SKU isn't it. The most expensive (base SKU) sticker price on a Nintendo console ever is $350 for the OLED, and inflation is a non-argument since the OLED's inflation-adjusted price is $380, not $450 or something. The original Switch's inflation-adjusted price is $360. Why anyone thinks they're going to add $150 (or arguably $200) to the sticker price of a new model absolutely baffles me.
380 today, but more than that 6+ months from now. Considering OLED improved the specs by 0 and is still selling really well, I think it's reasonable to expect something that improves the specs by A Lot to bump the price at least as much as OLED did, which easily gets to 450+ territory for 2023.
Positioning is one thing, but there's also the question of justifying the cost itself. There is inflation, and Nintendo's costs will be up, yes, but it's not like the tech is that much more cutting-edge? 2nd-gen Maxwell GPUs were released in September 2014, the year Switch development began, and the console launched 30 months later. Ampere GPUs were released in September 2020, the year development of the new model likely began in earnest, and this console will launch somewhere between 26 and 36 months after that.
In a world where Switch had had regular price drops and the Mariko and OLED were going for $150-200, I'd agree with you. But if the market is still eating up 90+ month old Maxwell at the current prices, they surely don't feel as much pressure to shoot for as low as they possibly could for something much more advanced. Of course, that can always backfire. In retrospect I'm sure they wished the Wii U launched for less and the Switch launched for more.
 
I would love to hear the explanations from the $500 crowd of what Nintendo actually intends to sell as their main hardware, because a $500 SKU isn't it.
I don't believe Nintendo will put a Pro at $500. But I also don't Nintendo will position a Pro as their main hardware. All that said, I'm much happier speculating about polygons and silicon than dollars and shipping routes.

Positioning is one thing, but there's also the question of justifying the cost itself. There is inflation, and Nintendo's costs will be up, yes, but it's not like the tech is that much more cutting-edge? 2nd-gen Maxwell GPUs were released in September 2014, the year Switch development began, and the console launched 30 months later. Ampere GPUs were released in September 2020, the year development of the new model likely began in earnest, and this console will launch somewhere between 26 and 36 months after that.
This is a little disingenuous. The TX1 was years old, off the shelf with development costs recouped by Nvidia before Nintendo made the first Switch, and Maxwell was two micoarch generations behind current gen, with Turing be a major architectural overhaul.

Drake is a custom chip whose cost will be borne solely by Nintendo, and Ampere is still the "current" Nvidia microarch. There is open debate about the degree to which Lovelace is 'just' an Ampere refresh. Also haven't some Lovelace's features been backported (not the cache, unfortunately)?

It'll come down to how good the games look, and how many of them there are, but are there any commercially available SOCs using Ampere? "Current gen, miniaturized" is roughly in line with "next gen, but 20 fans."

Ultimately it will come down to "how much does it cost to make" and "how much are people willing to spend" ie "how good are the games."
 
Quoted by: LiC
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I don't believe Nintendo will put a Pro at $500. But I also don't Nintendo will position a Pro as their main hardware. All that said, I'm much happier speculating about polygons and silicon than dollars and shipping routes.

This is a little disingenuous. The TX1 was years old, off the shelf with development costs recouped by Nvidia before Nintendo made the first Switch, and Maxwell was two micoarch generations behind current gen, with Turing be a major architectural overhaul.

Drake is a custom chip whose cost will be borne solely by Nintendo, and Ampere is still the "current" Nvidia microarch. There is open debate about the degree to which Lovelace is 'just' an Ampere refresh. Also haven't some Lovelace's features been backported (not the cache, unfortunately)?

It'll come down to how good the games look, and how many of them there are, but are there any commercially available SOCs using Ampere? "Current gen, miniaturized" is roughly in line with "next gen, but 20 fans."

Ultimately it will come down to "how much does it cost to make" and "how much are people willing to spend" ie "how good are the games."
I don't like the revision vs. successor debate, but there is one particular way where considering this new model a "Pro"/revision is impossible, and that's the idea that it will be positioned as a PS4 Pro-like premium model that exists in parallel for exactly the remaining lifespan of the base model, before both are replaced by a new generation. We know this is impossible because third parties are already preparing "model-exclusives" for it at or around launch, and because it's simply too late for it to happen -- it would mean either an impossibly long lifespan of the original Switch model while the next generation is developed, or an impossibly short development time for said next gen in order to launch in the next couple years. And we know it because of the general implausibility of Nintendo spending such massive R&D on a system with a new architecture, and the combability concerns that come with it, and with new features like RT and DLSS, to position it that way, even if it had launched in a timeframe (i.e. 2 years ago) that would make that kind of lifecycle possible.

All that to say, at some point, the new model will be the main model.

I don't think it's disingenuous at all to look at the development timelines of the consoles vs. the architectures. Both times, when Nintendo made their plans with Nvidia about what architecture they wanted to use, they made an equivalent choice. In both cases, they had some form of plans or prototype for the generation's Tegra to go off. If there was any talk about future architectures, then that would have also been similar, with Nvidia offering Pascal or Lovelace as the cutting edge and Nintendo choosing to use the more current option.
 
I think Nintendo would want to limit the Switch 2 price to 399. I guess it depends on how high end they make it though, also I could see a Switch 2 $399 base and $459 (or something) premium (with more storage, perhaps instead $499 with more storage and a bigger screen or bigger ‘pro’ joycons?)
 
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The price is gonna follow the OLED in logic—more expensive to reach a similar margin + slightly profitable overall . The realities of manufacturing, shipping, & inflation will be baked into that equation. There will only be one model of Drake at launch since a second is a waste.
 
I don't like the revision vs. successor debate,
Same, but when you’re asking about pricing rationales you have directly invoked this discussion. Fundamental to the pricing question is asking “who is this product for.”

but there is one particular way where considering this new model a "Pro"/revision is impossible, and that's the idea that it will be positioned as a PS4 Pro-like premium model that exists in parallel for exactly the remaining lifespan of the base model, before both are replaced by a new generation.
I don’t think this is a given at all. I happen to agree with you that this is the most likely path but I don’t think it is in any way definitively obvious

We know this is impossible because third parties are already preparing "model-exclusives" for it at or around launch, and because it's simply too late for it to happen -- it would mean either an impossibly long lifespan of the original Switch
The New3DS had exclusives and ran in parallel with the OG 3DS (and a bunch of variants of both) till a simultaneous launch period.

The PS4 launched 9 years ago and the PS4pro continues to receive nearly every PS5 and cross platform game day and date with their current gen counterpart.

I do not believe that Nintendo is fundamentally tired to any other generational model, but the things you are saying are impossible are not unprecedented in the industry.

Even in a world where a Drake based device transitions from being the “premium sku” to some (possibly die shrunk or cost reduced variant) as the primary sku doesn’t prevent it from being initially priced at premium levels. The PS4Pro was a premium device, and in the current era of cross gen support it is the budget device.
model while the next generation is developed, or an impossibly short development time for said next gen in order to launch in the next couple years. And we know it because of the general implausibility of Nintendo spending such massive R&D on a system with a new architecture, and the combability concerns that come with it, and with new features like RT and DLSS, to position it that way, even if it had launched in a timeframe (i.e. 2 years ago) that would make that kind of lifecycle possible.

All that to say, at some point, the new model will be the main model.

While I think you right about how it likely plays out, again, the initial position can set the initial price, and it’s not clear the positioning would change. Drake, with its robust feature set and backwards compat solution can be the architectural basis for a line of consoles
I don't think it's disingenuous at all to look at the development timelines of the consoles vs. the architectures.
TX1 is not Drake when it comes to costs for Nintendo and Ampere in 2022 is not Maxwell in 2017 when it comes to performance or feature set. In the frame of the cost discussion - how much Nintendo needs to charge to make money, and how much potential value exists in the arch for the customer
 
Quoted by: LiC
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A $100 increase is already a huge jump, more than Nintendo has ever done (and still a whopping $150 over the base Switch). $450 is certainly enough to hit premium territory, especially when you're looking at it side-by-side with systems that sell for $200(!!), $300, and $350 -- depending on which of those they keep around.
I don't disagree with your overall point
I just want to point out that Both 3DS and Wii U launched $100 above the launch price of their predecessors
(DS $149>3DS $249----Wii $249>Wii U $349)
Both received price drops for obvious reasons
AND I'm not exactly being fair because both older systems received price drops before the new ones launched.

But yeah... as for switch I would expect a launch at $399-$449... $429 is even an option I suppose. Having no price drops for 6 solid years really is an anomaly and makes this hard to gauge.
 
Quoted by: LiC
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The New3DS had exclusives and ran in parallel with the OG 3DS (and a bunch of variants of both) till a simultaneous launch period.
I wouldn't say they were parallel. New 3DS completely replaced the original 3DS, just like SP to GBA or Lite to DS. IMO the PlayStation comparisons aren't instructive since the timeline is completely different, and the current situation with the PS5 is more like a case of failing to hit escape velocity than it is a strategy on Sony's part.

TX1 is not Drake when it comes to costs for Nintendo and Ampere in 2022 is not Maxwell in 2017 when it comes to performance or feature set. In the frame of the cost discussion - how much Nintendo needs to charge to make money, and how much potential value exists in the arch for the customer
Sure -- Drake is what TX1 would have been if Nintendo didn't need a shorter and easier path to their next console while they rapidly jumped ship from the Wii U. Drake is the 2020 equivalent of what Nintendo has done for the internals of pretty much all their systems all along. Looking at feature sets and saying that makes Drake bleeding edge in comparison is just ignoring the fact that it's 6 years later. The GTX 900s are now RTX 3000s and they have those features.

I don't disagree with your overall point
I just want to point out that Both 3DS and Wii U launched $100 above the launch price of their predecessors
(DS $149>3DS $249----Wii $249>Wii U $349)
Both received price drops for obvious reasons
AND I'm not exactly being fair because both older systems received price drops before the new ones launched.

But yeah... as for switch I would expect a launch at $399-$449... $429 is even an option I suppose.
Since it's a $100 increase over the OLED we're talking about, we should include the DSi in there at $170, so still not quite $100 more for 3DS (not to mention the fiasco that was the 3DS's launch price). I'll grant that it's the closest precedent, especially since the DSi wasn't as mainstreamed as New 3DS or even the OLED. Wii U had a $300 SKU, and the $350 one was a bundle that included Nintendo Land (and technically other stuff although no one cared about it).

Also, to be clear, this is not a "if Nintendo has never done something, they can't possibly do it in the future" argument. Like I said, I think the price increase is already likely to be higher than examples from past history. Just not, start higher than ever before, and then toss in another $50 on top of that to get $500.

On the subject of 3DS and Wii U launch prices, I think taken together they form a lesson which Nintendo demonstrated through their Switch pricing strategy: don't ever sell at a loss, but it's still better to undershoot the maximum you could get away with than it is to overshoot -- if you overshoot it can become a disaster like the 3DS launch, and you can make up for a not-maximized launch price it by simply never dropping it.
 
In both cases, they had some form of plans or prototype for the generation's Tegra to go off. If there was any talk about future architectures, then that would have also been similar, with Nvidia offering Pascal or Lovelace as the cutting edge and Nintendo choosing to use the more current option.
I think that depends on when Nintendo's new hardware actually launches.

Nvidia mentioned that Atlan, which I presume is using AD10B for the GPU, is planned to be sampled in 2023. So assuming Nintendo's new hardware actually launches in early 2023, an Ada based GPU probably wouldn't be an option for Nintendo, since an Ada based GPU for an Arm based SoC probably wouldn't be finalised and be ready for Nintendo's use until early 2024 at the absolute earliest.

On the other hand, a Pascal based GPU, the GP10B, was already practically finalised and ready for Nintendo's use when Nintendo launched the Nintendo Switch (and arguably if Nintendo still decided to launch the Nintendo Switch on late 2016 according to rumours and since Nvidia gave a presentation on the Tegra X2 (codenamed Parker) at Hot Chips 2016).
 
The Drake was never going to be priced lower than $449. Not while the OLED is still $349. You can't have the OLED and iterative successor be $50 apart.

Also, I doubt you're getting a 12SM GPU and octo-core mobile chipset with tensor cores and DLSS for less than $450. Even at $450 that's likely Nintendo taking a small loss.
Unless OLED drops to $300 🤔 and they quickly phase out v2 models that also get a price cut. And Drake/Next Switch could then be $400 (or perhaps one with less storage and $450 having more)

TRIGGER WARNING below:
I'm kinda on the fence on a 12 SM GPU.. Like 50-50. Certainly on an 8nm Samsung node. The breach did say the NVN2 Drake is the 12 SM (1500 cuda cores), but we don't if the information is They could be initial dev kits and a modified AGX model that would never be released, while in a second to worst case scenario, the real retail model could be based off the 1000 cuda core NX model 16 GB (102 GB/s bandwidth) using up to +900 MHz GPU and eight A78 CPU running at 2GHz max. 25 watts being the theoretical max, but take out the AI stuff that isn't needed and we bring it closer to OG Switch model's power draw. Also lower RAM from 16GB to 8-12GB.. on 8nm Samsung with similar battery life to OG switch.

Considering the most powerful AGX Orion with 2048 cuda cores is like 5.2 TLOPs at 1.3Ghz GPU speed, then I would expect we would get less than half of that for Drake in this funny and second to worst case scenario.😅

8nm Samsung would then force Nintendo/nvidia to use a Samsung node for the revision 2 years later as well. 4nm maybe.

This is just speculation for fun. Who knows what will happen. Trying not to hype myself.
 
Quoted by: LiC
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I think that depends on when Nintendo's new hardware actually launches.

Nvidia mentioned that Atlan, which I presume is using AD10B for the GPU, is planned to be sampled in 2023. So assuming Nintendo's new hardware actually launches in early 2023, an Ada based GPU probably wouldn't be an option for Nintendo, since an Ada based GPU for an Arm based SoC probably wouldn't be finalised and be ready for Nintendo's use until early 2024 at the absolute earliest.

On the other hand, a Pascal based GPU, the GP10B, was already practically finalised and ready for Nintendo's use when Nintendo launched the Nintendo Switch (and arguably if Nintendo still decided to launch the Nintendo Switch on late 2016 according to rumours and since Nvidia gave a presentation on the Tegra X2 (codenamed Parker) at Hot Chips 2016).
This is getting into counterfactual territory since we don't know what Nvidia offered Nintendo either in 2014 or in 2019/2020. That's why I said if there was discussion of future architectures, it didn't lead anywhere. In both cases Nintendo went with the architecture that was immediately on the horizon, and whose main line of Nvidia GPUs would be launching a little over 2 years before their eventual console.
 
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I would easily pay $499 for Drake. And if it doesn’t do well at that price point, then they can always drop it later like the 3DS. It’s easier to do the price after launch than to increase it.
 
I would easily pay $499 for Drake. And if it doesn’t do well at that price point, then they can always drop it later like the 3DS. It’s easier to do the price after launch than to increase it.
Nah, Iwata hated price cuts. He thought it was unfair to their most loyal customers. I could see a Drake revision being cheaper, but I don't think they'd do a price cut
 
Nah, Iwata hated price cuts. He thought it was unfair to their most loyal customers. I could see a Drake revision being cheaper, but I don't think they'd do a price cut
That kinda was his philosophy on price cuts as we saw with the ambassador games with 3DS’ price cut. However, I think a big thing is money. The 3DS price cut was a key reason for Nintendo sliding into the red for the first time. It helped by WiiU’s either loss or very slim margins once the basic model was ousted.

I imagine that the Drake won’t get any sort of price reduction until the margins on it & OLED look better since those would be the main models sold. Cutting it early is just not gonna happen unless Drake sells negative hardware.
 
We're at about an astonishing 8-10% annual inflation in most of the western world. 13% in the UK and some other areas. If that ends up lasting two years, you can expect almost everything to have increased in price 20-25% before too long. People will have to adjust.

So while the prospect of a $500 Switch seems outrageous now, as society gets used to "new" prices - for food, energy, iPhones etc - it won't seem too outrageous for too long. Sony hiking the price of the PS5 is one of the first tech/gaming shocks, I think the announcement of this year's iPhone prices will be the next, and it's going to snowball from there.

Appeals to history such as "Nintendo has never priced something over X" will be completely meaningless in such an environment.
I'm tired and don't have much energy right now.

But the UK is NOT representative in the slightest. Over half of its inflation is Brexit related and quite a lot of it is just hot air. The actual inflation rate in terms of wholesale cost of goods is nowhere near 13%, but because people expect inflation, shops put up prices because they can. Food and petrol demand is inelastic and barring competition or regulation, there's nothing to be lost in raising food prices.

UK inflation is both incredibly overstated and primarily a FORESEEN, predictable and obvious effect of Brexit.

Unsurprisingly, when you leave the world's largest single market for petrol, food and currency, petrol, food and currency get more expensive.

The UK (and its residents and subjects) need to stop fannying around blaming X war or Y pandemic. Compared to LEAVING THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AREA, then VIOLATING THE CONSTITUTION OF THE ONLY EU NATION YOU BORDER, they're nothing.

The UK is getting its commupents and can't seem to handle the fact it's being punished for doing something bad.

Sony's price hikes are Sony's fault and no-one else's. Consoles, especially Sony's, aren't meant to make a profit at retail, but enter homes and create a captive audience to sell expensive digital games to. If you wanna reduce loss induced by selling below cost? Nintendo is reducing packaging across the board to lower production and transport costs. Microsoft is doing silent internal revisions to keep costs steady even as some sectors struggle with increasing cost.

Sony's unwillingness or inability to do that is not the fault of nebulous "inflation", but sheer greed. They know, like bakers know about bread, that PS5 demand is inelastic and this will make them more money in the short term.

Unlike bread, thankfully PS5s aren't required to live, but I happen to think exploiting demand elasticity (or lack thereof) to profit on the misfortunes of others is bad, actually, regardless of industry.
 
Unless OLED drops to $300 🤔 and they quickly phase out v2 models that also get a price cut. And Drake/Next Switch could then be $400 (or perhaps one with less storage and $450 having more)

TRIGGER WARNING below:
I'm kinda on the fence on a 12 SM GPU.. Like 50-50. Certainly on an 8nm Samsung node. The breach did say the NVN2 Drake is the 12 SM (1500 cuda cores), but we don't if the information is They could be initial dev kits and a modified AGX model that would never be released, while in a second to worst case scenario, the real retail model could be based off the 1000 cuda core NX model 16 GB (102 GB/s bandwidth) using up to +900 MHz GPU and eight A78 CPU running at 2GHz max. 25 watts being the theoretical max, but take out the AI stuff that isn't needed and we bring it closer to OG Switch model's power draw. Also lower RAM from 16GB to 8-12GB.. on 8nm Samsung with similar battery life to OG switch.

Considering the most powerful AGX Orion with 2048 cuda cores is like 5.2 TLOPs at 1.3Ghz GPU speed, then I would expect we would get less than half of that for Drake in this funny and second to worst case scenario.😅

8nm Samsung would then force Nintendo/nvidia to use a Samsung node for the revision 2 years later as well. 4nm maybe.

This is just speculation for fun. Who knows what will happen. Trying not to hype myself.
I'll repeat myself for the billionth time and say that, while any spec number from the leak could turn out to be different upon release, most of the numbers (including the 12 SMs) are unambiguous, and they're corroborated by many different pieces of the hacked data, both inside NVN2, and outside it in general drivers and other sources of spec info.

In the unlikely event the 12 SM number is not the final value, that would be because they designed GA10F with it at some point, but then changed it, and we just got unlucky and didn't see the change reflected in the data breach. This is extremely unlikely (since the leaked data was actively being worked on, and therefore should have been up to date enough), but it's possible. What's not possible is that the 12 SM number is wrong because the leak is for some other hardware, or NVN2 isn't actually using GA10F, or any other reason.
 
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Nah, Iwata hated price cuts. He thought it was unfair to their most loyal customers. I could see a Drake revision being cheaper, but I don't think they'd do a price cut

Putting aside the fact that Iwata no longer runs the company - source? I could see saying some fluff to sympathize with consumers when they were trying to salvage the 3DS launch, but if something's been on the market for a while I don't see how anybody could argue that a price cut isn't fair game. Loyal customers got to enjoy the system for years that late adopters didn't. I'd say Nintendo isn't going to hold strong on a price for something out of 'fairness'; they'll be doing it either out of necessity because of materials and production costs, or because the market allows it.
 
Once the dust had settled from the 3ds price mess, they introduced the 3DS XL following year at $200, which did not reduce in price until it was replaced by the new 3DS XL, at the same $200 price.
I think the only one that got significant price cuts was the bargain basement 2DS.

I am a bit baffled by people expecting price cuts to become a thing again, especially if it's used to justify a desire for the new model to launch with an exorbitant price. There is no literally no sign or reason to think that the industry is going to pivot back into the rapid price cuts of 2 decades ago.
 
I'm still in the camp thinking that Nintendo may end up take a loss (similar to what Sony and Microsoft always dealt with and eventually will become profitable) on the Drake/Switch 2 and recoup it in software sales and licensing fees. Considering how much their own titles tend to sell, as well as major titles on Switch, this is likely the path I see Nintendo going, especially given how things are right now.

While it's true that Nintendo "prefers" to makes hardware for a profit, there is nothing stopping them from breaking that with the next hardware. It'd be out of character arguably, but not impossible to see. I just can't see them charging so much for a General Audience machine that ultimately Nintendo wants available to everyone, from Kids to Adults.

A too high of a cost, especially when you consider wages in a majority parts of the world are not increasing to deal with the rising costs, would create a significant barrier to their audience.

Ultimately, at the end of the day, we'll know for sure what path forward Nintendo takes once they announce it.
 
do you see the possibility of Nintendo selling the new Nintendo console separating the console from the dock:
console+controllers+charging cable = 350 euro/dollars
dock + tv cable = 100 euro/dollars
 
do you see the possibility of Nintendo selling the new Nintendo console separating the console from the dock:
console+controllers+charging cable = 350 euro/dollars
dock + tv cable = 100 euro/dollars

No hybrid capabilities out of the box are huge NO.
 
No hybrid capabilities out of the box are huge NO.
It is 100 dollars less in price perception and the splitting of the financial burden in two chunks that each customer can then meet according to their own needs and possibilities.
it would be significant.
I also get your point…..it would lose the simplicity of use and message of the original product. This is also significant.
 
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Fair enough. 'hates' is a bit strong still. The quote reads like he just sympathizes with fans on the subject, not necessarily that it was the ruling strategy. They did price cuts for every console when he was president, no?
Yeah they all got price cuts. This does track a bit with 3DS owners getting 20 free classic games as a peace offering when the handheld got a big price slash in its first year.
 
I didn't realize the Splatoon 3 OLED model was already out today, two weeks prior to the actual game's release.
In other instances where Nintendo released a special/limited edition console related to an upcoming game, what was the longest timeframe between said console and the game's release?
Maybe there's nothing special to it but 2 whole weeks seems quite huge to me. Especially with the Splatoon 3 Pro Controller releasing on the same day as the game so it only concerns the OLED console as far as I know.
 
Quoted by: LiC
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No hybrid capabilities out of the box are huge NO.
it's huge, but to have the potential to add it back in makes it a much easier pill to swallow for people. especially if there are third party docks like there are for the switch. NIntendo can make their money back by having "officially licensed" docks
 
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I didn't realize the Splatoon 3 OLED model was already out today, two weeks prior to the actual game's release.
In other instances where Nintendo released a special/limited edition console related to an upcoming game, what was the longest timeframe between said console and the game's release?
Maybe there's nothing special to it but 2 whole weeks seems quite huge to me. Especially with the Splatoon 3 Pro Controller releasing on the same day as the game so it only concerns the OLED console as far as I know.
  • Splatoon 2: Same day
  • MHGU: Same day (I think)
  • Mario Odyssey: Same day
  • Diablo III: Same day
  • Pokémon LGPE: Same day
  • Smash Ultimate: 35 days before
  • DQXIS: One week before
  • Disney Tsum Tsum Festival: Same day
  • Pokémon Sword & Shield: One week before
  • ACNH: One week before
  • SM3DW+BF: Same day
  • MHR: Same day
  • Pokémon BDSP: Two weeks before
  • Fortnite: 871 days later
So two weeks has already happened, one week isn't uncommon, and Ultimate was over a month. Even if a 2 week gap were unusual, any weirdness around the Splatoon 3 OLED can probably be explained by Splatoon 3 getting delayed.
 
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