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StarTopic Future Nintendo Hardware & Technology Speculation & Discussion |ST| (Read the staff posts before commenting!)

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NateDrake said:
The amount with access in late 2020 was a small group of partners. A second wave was in late spring/early summer 2021. Nintendo is known to send preliminary kits to key partners early -- which the late 2020 kits would have been. And by late 2020... I mean very late 2020, essentially the very end of the year.
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Nintendo handing out dev kits as Christmas gifts. I need to get in on that grab bag!
 
Look over there said:
Thinking about this a bit more, and while I don't know enough about ray tracing, but I do wonder:
what's the breadth of RT functions covered by the API, and can we glean from that information some idea of hardware-related requirements? Like to do so and so, some grunt is needed here, some there.
Does it raise the floor on raw GPU grunt? Does it establish a floor on CPU grunt? Etc. etc.
Or is the whole thing by nature sufficiently scaleable such that, no, we can't really infer lower bounds?
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RT was always doable on nearly any hardware. There were folks getting rt on the snes*. All the current apis are doing is standardizing commands so there doesn't need to be a billion hardware combinations. After that, performance is whatever you want it to be. There's no "have x,y,z and you get alpha,beta,gamma performance"
 
ILikeFeet said:
RT was always doable on nearly any hardware. There were folks getting rt on the snes*. All the current apis are doing is standardizing commands so there doesn't need to be a billion hardware combinations. After that, performance is whatever you want it to be. There's no "have x,y,z and you get alpha,beta,gamma performance"
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I need the receipts for RT on the snes.
 
NateDrake said:
The amount with access in late 2020 was a small group of partners. A second wave was in late spring/early summer 2021. Nintendo is known to send preliminary kits to key partners early -- which the late 2020 kits would have been. And by late 2020... I mean very late 2020, essentially the very end of the year.
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Thanks for clarifyig!
 
NateDrake said:
The amount with access in late 2020 was a small group of partners. A second wave was in late spring/early summer 2021. Nintendo is known to send preliminary kits to key partners early -- which the late 2020 kits would have been. And by late 2020... I mean very late 2020, essentially the very end of the year.
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Sounds like December
 
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NateDrake said:
Yes, in late 2020 the devkits had a limited form of RTX & was still being tested in various ways.

I've intentionally avoided specs like CPU and such because, frankly, the public don't need to know those details & such specifics would only serve to narrow in on sources.

I even spoke of things like DLSS prior to Bloomberg ever reporting them.

This is not an update but a reiteration of what has been said: dev kits are in hand of developers. The intent has been to launch by end of '22/early '23.
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Thanks for reiterating. Looking forward to learning more whenever information comes out.
 
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ITSMILNER said:
At this point, can we say late 22 is out of the question as we have had no leaks/factory leaks of a device being in production right now?
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Yes we can, relative to past nintendo reveals, the last chance would be the upcoming direct after that it's getting really tight.

And about specs leaks, when they're out, they get summarized for everyone to grasp how powerful a hardware is, prior to the nvidia leak we wouldn't have known it was shaping to be this beefy, particularly with all we got to work with was some sort of pro revision.
 
ITSMILNER said:
Was this the one about the back of a new console? Did anything more ever come of that, like, was it proven to be a true claim?
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The guy who posted it also talked about seeing a new piece for a new color/style of the OLED model and he thinks that's releasing first. Nothing yet has verified this guy but the same could be said for the image of the casing of the Lite we saw in April 2019 (coincidentally April 2022 is when we first heard about this new back piece too.

Shadowrun said:
Uh, link? There's been nothing leaked from factories as far as I've heard, which is the biggest sign that this isn't happening this year.
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It was from a Chinese forum, people posted about it here back in April.
 
daase ko said:
Yes we can, relative to past nintendo reveals, the last chance would be the upcoming direct after that it's getting really tight.

And about specs leaks, when they're out, they get summarized for everyone to grasp how powerful a hardware is, prior to the nvidia leak we wouldn't have known it was shaping to be this beefy, particularly with all we got to work with was some sort of pro revision.
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Nintendo has been doing a lot of July reveals for fall releases lately.
 
daase ko said:
Yes we can, relative to past nintendo reveals, the last chance would be the upcoming direct after that it's getting really tight.

And about specs leaks, when they're out, they get summarized for everyone to grasp how powerful a hardware is, prior to the nvidia leak we wouldn't have known it was shaping to be this beefy, particularly with all we got to work with was some sort of pro revision.
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They don't do hardware announcements in directs anymore, that should not be the expectation.
 
Nintendo is still filling the Switch library with basics for this Gen., i.e. Prime 4, Bayonetta 3.
Sales have been great, especially with AC and the pandemic. I don’t see them with any pressure to release updated hardware. They might had plans earlier and that’s why we got the OLED (which I adore for the bigger screen).
There are too many changes for the OLED next to the screen, so it feels like an design for more but deliver less situation.
I’m happy with that. I’d rather wait and get a better node than getting the outdated node again at release.
 
Skittzo said:
They don't do hardware announcements in directs anymore, that should not be the expectation.
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ehluigi said:
Yep, not sure where this expectation came from. I can't recall the last time hardware was revealed in a Direct. They usually just put out a random video and call it a day.
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I posted something upthread that basically said patterns are useful until they aren't. All we have is everything they've done since the Switch. We haven't had a new hardware cycle with directs since then. Maybe old patterns apply, maybe they don't.

Generally patterns are good for short term (will a general direct follow an indie one?) longer term, you're just not going to get enough data points and once you do, you'd be 20 years into a cycle and people, marketing strategy etc would have changed.

That said, I'm still 80% sure new hardware won't be announced in the next direct even if it is coming this year. But I always keep an open mind and I'm not convinced patterns mean much. We tend to think they let patterns drive their strategy, but it's the other way around. Keeping hardware out of directs is a strategy, we're just assuming that marketing strategy is still valid. It's valid until it is not. We're nearing 6 years removed from Switch reveal trailer. There's been turnover even at NOA. nothing is 100% guaranteed.
 
Skittzo said:
They don't do hardware announcements in directs anymore, that should not be the expectation.
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It's more related to the timeframe. But the fact that there will be a direct so late when we've got hardware reveal in the past is indeed another clue to nothing happening.
 
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NateDrake said:
Technically, you are right. No leak is a public service; but specs and technical details of a devkit mean little to nothing to the public sphere. Only the few who care about tech (or those wanting to use tech to start a war) will have interest in them.
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Alas, aren't all tech specs going to end up being utilized for some form of console warring anyways? I've seen it before and I'm sure I'll see it again:
"Something something but Steam Deck yadda yadda..."

I actually think not leaking specs is also useful for avoiding setting up any false expectations for the system. The whole argument of "it's a successor/refresh" has gotten kind of tiring as well.
 
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Dekuman said:
I posted something upthread that basically said patterns are useful until they aren't. All we have is everything they've done since the Switch. We haven't had a new hardware cycle with directs since then. Maybe old patterns apply, maybe they don't.

Generally patterns are good for short term (will a general direct follow an indie one?) longer term, you're just not going to get enough data points and once you do, you'd be 20 years into a cycle and people, marketing strategy etc would have changed.

That said, I'm still 80% sure new hardware won't be announced in the next direct even if it is coming this year. But I always keep an open mind and I'm not convinced patterns mean much. We tend to think they let patterns drive their strategy, but it's the other way around. Keeping hardware out of directs is a strategy, we're just assuming that marketing strategy is still valid. It's valid until it is not. We're nearing 6 years removed from Switch reveal trailer. There's been turnover even at NOA. nothing is 100% guaranteed.
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Yeah I agree with you of course, I didn't mean to rule anything out. I just think it shouldn't be expected at the direct.
 
Dmax3901 said:
I wonder if Prime 1 remake/remaster has been held back to launch with Switch Drake...
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I do think at least Metroid Prime 4 will be a Switch Pro/Switch 2 title absolutely. Would be surprised otherwise and I also think a Metroid Prime remaster/remake could also serve as a Switch Pro/Switch 2 title. This has always been where my mindset has been with the Metroid Prime games and those are titles that could really help sell new hardware with the atmosphere of a good 3D Metroid game with more modern visuals and technology. It checks the boxes for me.
 
Dekuman said:
I posted something upthread that basically said patterns are useful until they aren't. All we have is everything they've done since the Switch. We haven't had a new hardware cycle with directs since then. Maybe old patterns apply, maybe they don't.

Generally patterns are good for short term (will a general direct follow an indie one?) longer term, you're just not going to get enough data points and once you do, you'd be 20 years into a cycle and people, marketing strategy etc would have changed.

That said, I'm still 80% sure new hardware won't be announced in the next direct even if it is coming this year. But I always keep an open mind and I'm not convinced patterns mean much. We tend to think they let patterns drive their strategy, but it's the other way around. Keeping hardware out of directs is a strategy, we're just assuming that marketing strategy is still valid. It's valid until it is not. We're nearing 6 years removed from Switch reveal trailer. There's been turnover even at NOA. nothing is 100% guaranteed.
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Was thinking about posting something similar. It’s perfectly fair to keep our options open at this stage.

We don’t even know what Nintendo is calling this event - historically it’s had the “Nintendo Direct | E3 20XX” label. Assuming they do have big plans for H2, and without E3 as the stage, would it just be a humble “June 2022” event, or something different signaling a new phase in the Switch line?

I expect a normal H2 Direct, and the announcement would show up separately. But I’d definitely humor alternatives. I just don’t like using patterns to prove a negative ie. ‘They won’t do this because they haven’t done this before (or recently).’
 
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karmitt said:
Was thinking about posting something similar. It’s perfectly fair to keep our options open at this stage.

We don’t even know what Nintendo is calling this event - historically it’s had the “Nintendo Direct | E3 20XX” label. Assuming they do have big plans for H2, and without E3 as the stage, would it just be a humble “June 2022” event, or something different signaling a new phase in the Switch line?

I expect a normal H2 Direct, and the announcement would show up separately. But I’d definitely humor alternatives. I just don’t like using patterns to prove a negative ie. They won’t do this because they haven’t done this before (or recently).
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This is a VERY good point. Everyone ASSUMES it will be a general direct. This is a new situation. IIRC when the first Partners direct was announced insiders were saying it was going to be a mini or general direct. They didn’t know something new was coming.

It’s the same situation here. For all we know it could be something different. I’m fully expecting a general direct, but I won’t leave out the possibility of Nintendo having other plans. Something possibly bigger could happen
 
Look over there said:
Thinking about this a bit more, and while I don't know enough about ray tracing, but I do wonder:
what's the breadth of RT functions covered by the API, and can we glean from that information some idea of hardware-related requirements? Like to do so and so, some grunt is needed here, some there.
Does it raise the floor on raw GPU grunt? Does it establish a floor on CPU grunt? Etc. etc.
Or is the whole thing by nature sufficiently scaleable such that, no, we can't really infer lower bounds?
Click to expand...
Some RT related things are offloaded to the CPU, so a competent enough CPU seems to be needed for RT. Though it happens pretty fast anyway.

With RT, there’s still the requirement of having to have a fast enough raster to the RT, once the RT cores do their job the shaders have to draw on the screen right? This would also apply to the CPU technically, the RT perf is also dependent on how well the CPU can keep up to give the GPU sufficient enough data to do its job.


There is definitely a lower bound for the GPU and the CPU, but I’m afraid I cannot answer what said lower bound is because this is a video game console that can go out of spec and have unique optimizations done for it that are not present on PCs.


Thing to keep in mind is that RT is the process of using physics to simulate light, the properties associated with it, and how light behaves in the real world but applied to a virtual world.

To do this, the GPU makers that push the industry opted to uses dedicated Ray Tracing hardware to offload this computationally expensive task to those specialized cores rather than do it all on the shaders. It isn’t that they can’t do it software-based though, as evident by the Crysis on the switch using a software based RT.

Performance is dependent on what the dev in mind has and how achievable it is.




there’s a benefit here though, and this is off-topic to what you’re saying, but the benefit of being hardware dedicated for ray tracing is that it is hardware that is in essence dedicated to physics calculations. And this makes me wonder if they can offload some physics calculations that the CPU would do to a ray tracing core to assist in the process and alleviate the stress that the CPU has to do.
 
Dakhil said:
Although I do acknowledge that most of the issues with regards to USB-C and USB-PD compliance seems to do with the dock, the tablet does violate USB-C and USB-PD specifications, as detailed by Nathan K. at Google+.

I personally hope the EU scrutinises the tablet and the dock. (I'm referring to future hardware here.)
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Was any testing ever done on the OLED model and LAN dock?

Regardless, I imagine that if such a thing caught Nintendo off-guard, it'd be fixed via a silent revision.
 
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Dmax3901 said:
I wonder if Prime 1 remake/remaster has been held back to launch with Switch Drake...
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It only finished development on Retro's end in September 2021 (doesn't mean it was 100% ready to ship and launch that month either), and it isn't really isn't unusual for them to want to space it out from Dread. Don't think they've particularly sat on it for the sake of the Drake model even if it ended up launching with support for it.
 
Dmax3901 said:
I wonder if Prime 1 remake/remaster has been held back to launch with Switch Drake...
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No, they are probably holding it up to use it as a marketing tool for Prime 4, they'll release this first, then 4 some months later. It'll help to introduce people to the game. It may also have a Drake version though, who knows at this point?
 
Honestly I feel MP4 has a lot of pressure on it. Can Retro deliver something game of the year worthy, or just a decent shooter adventure.
 
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Hermii said:
Any idea what was in those early kits? Xavier? Orin? Prototypes of t239? Lower clocked desktop or laptop cards? Whatever.
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It would not be possible to use Xavier. There are only two things a 2020 dev kit could have been, either ad-hoc components (Ampere dGPU + some CPU + etc.) in a big box, or Orin. I think we have reason to believe Orin was used for testing at some point, but that doesn't necessarily mean it was used for external devkits.

Look over there said:
Thinking about this a bit more, and while I don't know enough about ray tracing, but I do wonder:
what's the breadth of RT functions covered by the API, and can we glean from that information some idea of hardware-related requirements? Like to do so and so, some grunt is needed here, some there.
Does it raise the floor on raw GPU grunt? Does it establish a floor on CPU grunt? Etc. etc.
Or is the whole thing by nature sufficiently scaleable such that, no, we can't really infer lower bounds?
Click to expand...
Lots of different ways to answer different parts of this question but the bottom line is no, you can't tell things like that from an API.
 
Raccoon said:
I'm betting on 500
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Kinda same? It’s been said before but the market has an appetite for $500 gaming devices and Nintendo probably isn’t going to treat this as anything but an enthusiast’s device for some time.

Edit: Also the OLED being priced at $350 kinda solidified for me that it’d be $450 minimum were it to release any day soon.
 
LiC said:
It would not be possible to use Xavier. There are only two things a 2020 dev kit could have been, either ad-hoc components (Ampere dGPU + some CPU + etc.) in a big box, or Orin. I think we have reason to believe Orin was used for testing at some point, but that doesn't necessarily mean it was used for external devkits.
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This is what people mean when they refer to using Xavier: the Xavier SOC with an Ampere based dGPU in a mini PC form factor for very early kits.

Xavier being ARM based is the reason.

Later kits could be changed for an ORIN SOC though

And even later kits would be the Drake SOC.
 
Quoted by: LiC
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karmitt said:
Kinda same? It’s been said before but the market has an appetite for $500 gaming devices and Nintendo probably isn’t going to treat this as anything but an enthusiast’s device for some time.
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yes and furthermore, why sell a hundred thousand devices at 400 just so scalpers can resell them for 500
 
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